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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 11:00 PM EST


The most hilarious, devastating, and insightful smackdown of the nightmare that was "The Phantom Menace," part one:

The rest can be found here. Happy holidays!
DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 101 comments
Minnesota Sixth Congressional District
The poll on Minnesota's Sixth Congressional District that Public Policy Polling released this week illuminated something I had thought for a while.  This is that Tarryl Clark, even though she is a state legislator with a good profile, does not have much of a chance of unseating Michelle Bachmann.  Any Democrat will have a hard time running in a district with the partisan makeup that the Sixth has, especially in a Republican favoring year that 2010 most likely will be.  
Bachmann
As much as I would LOVE to see Bachmann lose re-election I can't help but wonder if having people like Bachmann, WIlson, Inofe, and DeMint in elected office as Republicans in conservative districts/states would just cause more damage to the GOP if they would stay in office rather than having moderate dems replace them. Any thoughts?

Happy Holidays! :)  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
My thoughts
No. The fact that Bachmann is in Congress didn't prevent Coleman from coming within a couple of hundred votes of winning reelection. It's better for extremists like that NOT to win elections.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
To put it another way
If Minnesota goes to a 7D - 1R delegation after 2012, I'd rather have Bachmann be the remaining Rethug than John Kline.
[ Parent ]
I would much prefer to have
those Southern teabaggers and wingnuts than the likely Blue Dogs we'd get if they were defeated.

However, I would like to get rid of Bachmann, because her replacement would probably vote with us most of the time.

[ Parent ]
Any
I shouldn't have used the word "any" in my previous post.  Even in 2010, some Democrats will most likely have success in districts like the one Bachmann represents.  Ann Kirkpatrick of Arizona's First Congressional District comes to mind.  Even though she is a freshman in a R+6 district, (Bachmann's MN-6 is R+7) she does not have any high profile challengers and will probably have an easy path to being reelected.  She being a freshman in such a district that is in the electoral situation mentioned is probably an anomaly.
[ Parent ]
R+6?
Is that a McCain effect?  I seem to recall that district being like an R+2 when Renzi was defending it every cycle.  I've been wrong before though.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
Yes, McCain effect
Most of the Arizona districts had less Republican PVIs before 2008.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Ann Kirkpatrick has a challenger
Yes, she does. Former state Senator Rusty Bowers hasn't been getting much attention for some reason, but Bowers is a serious candidate.
[ Parent ]
Here comes the big wave of snow in central MN
Good luck to all of us in the Upper Midwest!
Mostly rain/sleet here in southern MN
Just finished shoveling a couple inches of slop from my driveway. Would almost rather have a foot of snow, that slush was heavy.

Anybody else have to change their Christmas plans because of the weather? Our family Christmas get together was postponed until Sunday (A couple of my siblings and their families live in the Twin Cities) so I got nothing better to do today than surf the web.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
Ive been driving up and down I-94
from the Twin Cities up to St Cloud and back inbetween to my parents house in Albertville now for 3 days.  So I welcome the warmer weather, means the freeway will just be wet instead of a shit shot of ice.  I can probably go home tonight, see the boyfriend, and make it to work tomorrow at 11am at the Mall of America instead of being stranded in Albertville, where my parents booze supplies are running quite low.
[ Parent ]
MN SEN District 26 special
Another week another update on the upcomming special state senate election in Minnesota.

The race is starting to take shape with Republican and DFL endorsing conventions taking place Monday and the filing deadline next Tuesday. So far their are 6 Republicans, 1 Democrat and 1 Independence Party member who have declared.

http://www.wasecacountynews.co...

The only DFL candidate to declare so far is Jason Engbrecht, a Faribault resident and physics professor at St. Olaf College in Northfield. Engbrecht serves on the Faribault School Board. I don't know Mr Engbrecht but he sounds like an interesting candidate. Here is his campaign website.

http://www.jason4senate.org/in...

Maybe it is my bias but I am really unimpressed with the Republican field. They all seem to be garden variety teabaggers to me. Of course this is a republican leaning district and in a low turnout 3 way contest anything can happen.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Stayed up til 3 watching the Ep 1 review
Amazing, then I watched the First Contact Review. Still Amazing.

So politics, I got this book for Christmas, it may be the most interesting book I have ever received: "The Politics of Zoos."

http://www.amazon.com/Politics...

The politics of professional animal captivity and management including congressional overhauls to American zoo standards, I am in fascination overload at this book.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Merry Christmas!
And here's 2 of my favorite Christmas songs that I'll leave you with:



50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)

I had a great Christmas too.
I got a couple of puzzles, a Sudoku book, an iPhone, and a Wii!

And here's another video, a blast from the past!



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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

iPhone AND Wii?
You realize, you have no right to complain today, right?

Okay, maybe if you got a 8gb iPhone 3G instead of the 32 GB 3GS

Or if the Wii came with no games, or came without either Zelda: Twilight Princess, Super Mario Galaxy, or Smash Brother Brawl.

Still . . . you got the top two toys for older teenagers/twenty somethings. Nice job.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Zelda and Galaxy
Are the two best games for the Wii, and they are quite excellent. The problem is, with the exception of Guitar Hero, I think there's a huge fall-off in quality after those games. Nothing else I've tried has held my attention in quite the same way. Not to say that the Wii isn't a great gift! It sure is. And of course tastes differ. But I'm eagerly waiting the Galaxy and Zelda sequels that are due in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
for the advice. I just got a Wii for Chrismas. All I have right now is the Wii fit, sports and some other game.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
THE LIST
MUST BUY THESE TWO:
Mario Galaxy
Zelda: Twilight Princess

Good as well:
Super Smash Bros Brawl
Mario Kart Wii
New Super Mario Bros Wii
Wii Play ($50 gets you a $40 Wiimote AND a cheesy party game)
Metroid Prime 3 (better yet, buy the trilogy pack)

Haven't played, but should be good:
Pikmin with Wii Controls
Resident Evil 4 with Wii Controls
Beatles Rock Band (Roommate owns it, so, I've played it, very good for a music game)

Additional notes:
-Use the online store, there are a lot of solid games you can buy there (Donkey Kong Country, Super Mario Bros 1/3, Mario 64, etc.)
Go get some Gamecube games on the cheap, it reads the gamecube mini disks (Windwaker, Xmen Legends, Rogue Squadron 2/3, Prince of Persia). You'll need a GC memory card for this, find a WaveBird controller if you can.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
As a casual gamer
I'm not a fan of Metroid Prime 3. I prefer the much more direct simplicity of Zelda.
[ Parent ]
Im done buying Zelda games for the most part
It's the same damn thing every time!  Go into the forest dungeon get a piece to something, go to the fire dungeon get a piece to something, water dungeon, some spirit/soul dungeon, etc.  They take Ocarina of Time, revamp the story line, give it some better graphics and Link some new abilities and they call it a brand new game.

The games overall are a total boner-killer because you get all excited to play, only to find that you spend 3 hours figuring out where a switch to hit is.  The last time, I got the game right away, waited a week, and then just followed along on Gamefaqs because figuring out where to go in those dungeons is just absurd now.

Plus, especially with this last one, I couldnt get back into the game because even with the effing guide online in front of me, I spent HOURS figuring out where to go in the new Zora kingdom and by the time I took a week break, I forgot everything I had mapped out in my head.

The games need to be revamped in gameplay,  Less running around with your head cut off balanced with more guys to kill.  Ocarina of Time did this beautifully and is one of the best games of all time.

[ Parent ]
I did enjoy Majora's Mask.
True it has the same forest/fire/water/spirit-or-soul layout but there are TONS of sidequests plus the minigames to get the heart pieces are challenging and fun.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Majora's Mask was a really good one
Although I have to admit, collecting every single one of those mask could get really annoying after a while :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
I hadn't played
Any Legend of Zelda games since the very first one. (I didn't own any consoles between the NES and the Wii.) So it wasn't repetitive to me at all.
[ Parent ]
Ah, if I were in that same boat
Twilight Princess would be one of the best games I've ever played.

Although how often did you have to use a guide to figure out where to go and such?  I generally dont have much patience with video games.  When I dont know what to do, sometimes I'll give up within 10 minutes.  I dont need a video game to make me feel dumb, I've got parents, a brother, and a boyfriend for that, hahahahahaha.

[ Parent ]
I've got a bit of an obsessive personality myself
So while throwing a controller at the TV is always a possibility, I will spend hours trying to figure out something I'm stuck on.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Ive got myself a Wii and the bf has an Xbox, it's perfect harmony
Super Smash Bros is awesome

Mario Kart is extremely fun except if you play it sober because then it is extremely easy.  I feel like they dropped the ball and didnt spend nearly enough time on the game.  It needs an easy medium hard option for computers, and they recylced 16 old maps from previous games and only created 16 new ones, WEEEEAAAAKKKK!!!!!

Star Wars Unleashed was crazy fun, until you've played through it 4 times.

New Super Mario Bros is awesome.  It's really similiar with Zelda in that they never come up with new worlds and they go in the same order everytime, but what a perfect revamp for such a classic.

Cant wait to get my copy from my dad for the new FF CC Crystal Bearers, hopefully it's good.

As for Xbox, Ive only played FPS and Call of Duty is the shit and Borderlands is one of the most beautifully done games I've ever played.  And the beauty of FPS on Xbox, once you've mastered the controls, they are same the for everyone single one so you'll never have to figure it out again, which is great because it takes quite a few hours of gameplay to get them down.

[ Parent ]
Echo those above...
Super Smash Bros Brawl and Mario Kart Wii are very good.

I'm also partial to the Rock Band/Guitar Hero genre, though.

[ Parent ]
What about the gigantic library of games available on the Virtual Console
That thing is teh awesome.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link
That was cute!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
a bunch of thoughts for the day
With an eye toward electoral college majorities, decennial deck-shuffling, and keeping Democrats in charge in the Congress (but with that same eye averted at this point from issues that may come to change priorities), following are Members of Congress whose districts cry out for attention:

Jason Altmire from Pennsylvania's 4th, John Boccieri from Ohio's 16th, Allen Boyd from Florida's 2nd, Bruce Braley from Iowa's 1st, Vern Buchanan from Florida's 13th, Christopher Carney from Pennsylvania's 10th, Kathy Dahlkemper from Pennsylvania's 3rd, Charlie Dent from Pennsylvania's 15th, Mario Diaz-Balart from Florida's 25th, Leonard L. Boswell from Iowa's 3rd, Steve Driehaus from Ohio's 1st, Jim Gerlach from Pennsylvania's 6th, Gabrielle Giffords from Arizona's 8th, Alan Grayson from Florida's 8th, Paul E. Kanjorski from Pennsylvania's 11th, Mary Jo Kilroy from Ohio's 15th, Ann Kirkpatrick from Arizona's 1st, Ron Klein from Florida's 22nd, Suzanne M. Kosmas from Florida's 24th, Tom Latham from Iowa's 4th, Harry E. Mitchell from Arizona's 5th, John P. Murtha from Pennsylvania's 12th, Adam Putnam from Florida's 12th, Tom Rooney from Florida's 16th, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen from Florida's 18th, Jean Schmidt from Ohio's 2nd, Joe Sestak from Pennsylvania's 7th, Zach Space from Ohio's 18th, Lee Terry from Nebraska's 2nd, Pat Tiberi from Ohio's 12th, Dina Titus from Nevada's 3rd, Bill Young from Florida's 10th.

Attention how?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Attention
Well ... just attention in the sense of mindfulness that what happens in these districts is (1) at issue and (2) will in-part shape the future playing field in swing states, mostly where it comes to a sustained, institutional (read incumbent-protection) voter-registration/gotv apparatus.  
[ Parent ]
And how does this differ from other districts?
I notice that you've selected some swing districts from purple states -

but have omitted a number of others, such as districts in Indiana, Missouri, and Colorado.

And this  makes it sound like you favor incumbent protection,

mostly where it comes to a sustained, institutional (read incumbent-protection)

even for Rs?

[ Parent ]
grist for the mill
I have been active in efforts that have produced four Democratic Members of Congress - two men and two women - where I live, a historically Republican district that voted 55% for McCain.  I have also been represented by some very low-functioning Republicans during my time.  

Democratic representation in Congress has always been accompanied by a lavishly-funded, much-ballyhooed voter registration/get-out-the-vote effort that has simply failed to make doors rattle on election day.  So a core learning from decades of activism has been that local activists are on their own where it comes to effectively connecting voter registration/get-out-the-vote to the dispossessed we want to encourage to vote.  

Many comments at Swing State Project and like-minded websites have urged in recent years that the DCCC does great work at incumbent protection.  But -- stubbornly -- where I have been concerned, before 2008 those comments did not persuade me.  Consequently - although I was represented by a Democratic incumbent Member of Congress - I approached 2008 just like I had the previous 10 (or so cycles) and put together my own gotv effort in the local precincts of interest to me.

Predictably I got a call a day or two before election day from party bigshots complaining that what I was duplicating what they were doing.

After some back-and-forth, we agreed that in the precincts I worked we would knock on only the doors at homes where we had no phone-match.  The bigshots would generate recorded messages in my precincts where there were known phones.  And they would undertake a similar effort in precincts I was staying out of.  

It was far less than a model effort, but it was one that would bring direct contact to at least some dispossessed voters.  (At the time I understood some to mean, as before, the ones at the doors I would knock on.)

My jaw dropped at about 8:15 on election day morning in a tough, scary neighborhood.  For I started down a block where I had represented someone behind virtually every door on my list (I am a felony criminal defense lawyer).  The western boundary of the precinct I was working ran down the middle of the street and was the eastern boundary of a similarly down-and-outer precinct that was not on my list.  I walked headon into a couple of enthusiastic 20-something kids working their way down the other side of the street.  

So I now accept that the kids from DC have finally figured out where the rubber meets the road with those lavishly-funded, much-ballyhooed get-out-the-vote efforts.  That acceptance is coupled with my long-held belief that meaningful change will come only when more people vote.

So I do think incumbent protection is significant.  And claiming as much ground as we can before reapportionment is significant.  And being aware of where population changes suggest the inevitability of much change as a consequence of the coming reapportionment is important.  And incumbent protection in 2012 will be important.

The districts I identify are all* identified as to some degree or another competitive by CQ Politics, Cook, or Rothenberg (most by all three).  And all* are in states that are projected to gain or lose seats as a consequence of reapportionment.  All* are in states that voted for Bush, Bush, then Obama.  Or are Pennsylvania, which voted Gore, Kerry, Obama but delivered a smaller percentage to Obama in 2008 than some of the states that had voted for Bush.  (Or are Arizona, because one can only speculate where Arizona would have been had the Republicans not nominated its favorite son).

*Actually, five of the districts were selected for entirely different reasons (although some vindicate multiple purposes).  These were  Tom Latham from Iowa's 4th, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen from Florida's 18th, Lee Terry from Nebraska 2nd, Pat Tiberi from Ohio's 12th, and Bill Young from Florida's 10th, who represent districts where (1) one or more electoral votes went for W, then Obama and where (2) the districts were carried by Obama but by Republicans in Congressional races.  I should have included Randy Forbes from Virginia's 4th and Frank Wolf from Virginia's 10th, because they satisfy that same criteria.

Honestly ... its all just grist for the mill.

[ Parent ]
NRCC robocalls in IA-03
beginning on December 22. Blah blah blah Nancy Pelosi blah blah blah government takeover of health care blah blah blah pork-laden stimulus blah blah blah liberal agenda.

Why would they waste money on calls three days before Christmas when everyone's attention was on a big winter storm and holiday plans?

Anyone know how many districts were getting similar robocalls?

blah blah blah Obama-Pelosi liberals
blah blah blah higher taxes blah blah blah big government blah blah blah death panels blah blah blah.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Something in HI-01.
Apparently, Ed Case is more progressive than Colleen Hanabusa, despite being a Blue Dog in Congress, who would have voted for the Iraq war. http://www.swingstateproject.c...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Um, wha...?
Did you mean to link to something else?
[ Parent ]
I assume he was linking to...
... the bottom of that diary's comment thread, where a SSPist is arguing that Case would be a progressive legislator.
[ Parent ]
Even though HI is a progressive state
I'm not sure that a "pro-war" stance would hurt a candidate in that state.
[ Parent ]
Maybe not
But Ed Case IIRC had an overall Progressive Punch score of around 74 when he was last in the House.  That's not "critical votes" that's everything.  Aside from having a relative with a ton of money (former AOL head Steve Case), Ed Case had little to recommend him to anybody.

Ed Case = Bad Juju.  Just think of him as a whitebread version of Harold Ford.  Very wrong for that district.  

[ Parent ]
New user's first comment starts with
"Progressives get a grip." Whatevers.
[ Parent ]
You mean SHE was linking to
And I forgot to mention that I appreciate the link, because I wouldn't have seen the new posts on that thread, otherwise.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Tucson City Council: Question for all my fellow political nerds
So last November in my hometown of Tucson, my parents' Democratic City Councilwoman Nina Trasoff lost reelection to Republican Steve Kozachik. Here's the weird thing that I somehow hadn't noticed before; while Councilmembers represent individual Wards (in Kozachik's case, that would be Ward 6, which contains Midtown Tucson and stretches to the University of Arizona), they are elected at large. So while Ward 6, which is one of the more liberal parts of Tucson, voted to retain Trasoff with 59% of the vote, Kozachik became its Councilman anyway because he racked up margins in other Wards that had high turnout. So now, while Kozachik knows perfectly well who actually wanted him on the council, he's still somehow supposed to represent the interests of a Ward that didn't want him. Is Kozachik going to improve on Trasoff's (admittedly poor) constituent services? What motivation does he have when his only realistic chance for reelection wrests with trying to rack up his votes on the Eastside?

My question is, are there any other communities that have this bizarre system of elections? I really can't imagine a worse way to go about City Council races-either actually having Wards chose their own Councilmembers or just electing them at-large without the pretense that they represent Wards would be much better.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

We have it here in Virginia Beach
which means it's very hard any Democrats from winning here (there used to be two: the mayor and one council member, both of whom lost in 2008). It's especially frustrating because it denies the African-American population of representation by diluting their voting strength. I honestly don't know how this system is allowed in medium-sized cities like this.
[ Parent ]
It would probably fall in court
In July, a federal judge ruled that Irving, Texas, a rapidly growing suburb of Dallas, couldn't elect its city council members from at-large districts. As of 2007, Irving was 41% Hispanic, and it's probably about 45% now, but none of its city officials were Hispanic, because of the at-large system and, as expected, low Hispanic turnout.
[ Parent ]
That's a pain
and would probably make an interesting civil rights court-case. I think in Tucson, because the city usually leans Democratic, the party has an informal understanding that it has to run Hispanic candidates for the seats in Hispanic-majority Wards, and the city leans Democratic so they typically get by (which is what happened this time; Democrat Richard Fimbres narrowly won an open seat for the majority-Hispanic Ward 5 while Trasoff was losing).

However, in an at-large system like Virginia Beach's, you can contact any of your council members regarding services, right? The biggest problem I have with Tucson's system is that my parent's have to go through Kozachik, even though he has to know that the only way he'll get a second term is by winning big support among the voters in the Eastside Wards again (which roughly translates to pissing off people in Midtown).

Moreover, when Trasoff was their councilwoman, she had bad constituent services. She has to have a citywide presence to win elections, and focusing all her resources on Ward 6  wouldn't have been a prudent use of her time. I think expecting councilmembers to represent Wards and be a particular Ward's main avenue to city government and services, and yet force them to win their elections city-wide is only asking for poor governance.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.

[ Parent ]
No, it's the same system as Tucson
There are 3 At-Large seats and 7 District seats, but all council members are elected at-large.

As far as contacting council members, well, if you're not a developer or a church, you don't usually get much from the VBCC.

[ Parent ]
We have a system like that statewide here in Georgia.
Our Public Service Commissioners must live in one of five districts but are elected at large.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Loved the review
I saw all 70 minutes  As disappointing as Phantom Menace was, the bad acting needed to be mentioned more.  Although maybe that had a lot to do with the plot, screenplay, etc.  Natalie Portman, for example, has been much better in other movies.
MA-Sen First Poll Shows Brown, Coakley tied
But, its an extreeemely small sample not taken by a real pollster (157 people sampled)
of those, 25 actually answered
12 were for Brown
13 for Coakley
the rest did not answer or refused to respond
http://ow.ly/Q15q
That's...ridiculous
Calling up random numbers in the phone book? Come on.
[ Parent ]
lol
I know. But, no one else was polling it. Best thing they had I guess.
Oh, and 34 people answered. 9 undecideds
[ Parent ]
wow
why not just poll Brown's family members and call it an official poll. Total ridiculous  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
What do you imagine
the margin of error is when you have a sample size of 25?

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I didn't feel like calculating it out but
this may help you get in the ballpark
Sample size 2,401 MOE+/-2%
Sample size 1,067 MOE+/-3%
Sample size  600  MOE+/-4%
Sample size  384  MOE+/-5%
Sample size  96   MOE+/-10%
[ Parent ]
For n=25
The MoE is ±19.6%. :)
[ Parent ]
so if this poll showed them tied
Coakley might actually be behind by almost 20 points!!! OMG!
[ Parent ]
Heh
I know you're desperately hoping that MA-Sen turns into a real race, GOPVoter, but as G.O.B. would say... come on!
[ Parent ]
Martha is going to win this
Her approval ratings in Massachusetts are close to 70% in some polls.  
[ Parent ]
Plus
the GOP is like an insignificant third party in Massaschusetts. They should of just had it where all the candidates compete on one ballot, if someone broke 50%, there's no general election.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
heh

[ Parent ]
Also, Suffolk U actually did a poll of the GE back in November
but I guess nobody cared because it was the Democratic primary everyone was interested in.

http://www.suffolk.edu/images/...

Coakley was up 58-27. Interestingly, Alan Khazei was actually trailing Brown 33-30, in that same poll.

[ Parent ]
I have to blame his name on that
I really do, what other reason could he have polled so low, but everyone else; Coakley, Capuano and Pagulica, polled so high.  
[ Parent ]
wow, just wow.
No comment on that poll or the people who took it.
[ Parent ]
Did they just poll Cape Cod!?!?!
because that's what it sounds like...they polled 25 people in the most conservative part of the state and called it a poll!?!?!

[ Parent ]
::sigh:: It appears the House is going to doom us all in 2010 with HCR
Let's not let this devolve into an argument about what is best for the country on passing HCR because my entire post will be politically motivated not public policy motivated.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/OPINIO...

This is what got me thinking that progressives will either kill the entire thing all together or drag it out for an extremely long period of time, which is the area I want to talk about.

My last semester of college in my American Political Behavior class, we read a book of John Hibbing and Elizabeth Theise-Morse's research called Stealth Democracy, outlining essentially how Americans want our government to work.

What they found was we as Americans do not want to personally be in charge of policy decisions, we want to elect experts and better qualified people to make these decisions for us, and that is the extent that we want to participate for the most part in public policy.  The death knell to public opinion with pending legislation is dragging it out, making us hear about it for months on end, and making us think that the people we have elected are worthless and just cant get something done.  It's just like the phrase about legislating being like making sausage, it is an ugly process.  We dont want to hear about some piece legislation that has been worked on for like 6 months, we elected people to get things passed so do it already!

Remember where the polling was on HCR and all of our electoral fortunes during the summer?  Everything was quite positive, until the protests occured and people just got sick of the whole thing, those protests turned the whole thing into a toxic piece of crap to many.  And IIRC, it seemed like everyone's name who came up as being heavily involved in the process negotiating the HCR deal all saw their poll numbers drop, with Baucus being the name I seem to be recalling.  Maybe Reid wouldnt be in such bad electoral shape if his name wasnt constantly associated with a piece of legislation no one wants to hear about anymore.  I dont want to hear about it anymore, it's just getting to be too and the past 6 months haved caused me to be spent.

It's what motivates the throw the bums out mentality.  If they cant do what we put them into office to do, legislate and get shit done, then throw them all out and elect people who will get something done, or the inverse and wont get anything passed.

If we want to do well in 2010, we just need to get this thing passed because having a YEAR of constant media attention and scrutiny is not going do it.  Regardless of your personal opinions, if we want to do well in 2010, we need to change the message from cost control in HCR to health coverage, call it a victory, get us some good press and wrap this thing up.  If we have to lose several progressive votes with us being able to pick-up several Blue Dog votes so be it, but it's time to get something passed and stop this freefall in public opinion.

Again, I see about a million opportunties to turn this into a knock out drag out fight about policy (expanding coverage has to go hand-in-hand with cost control, etc.).  Let's not and say we did  ;).

crap, and that turned out to be diary length
SORRY!
[ Parent ]
Don't get too upset
I believe this is mostly posturing. There will be a conference report, and it will pass the House. The biggest risk is that, God forbid, something might happen to Byrd or one of the other 59 members of the Democratic Caucus in the Senate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Those lunatics are still praying for him to die
That is what "modern" politics has come to.
[ Parent ]
What did Tom Coburn say again?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
That somebody would not make it to the Senate vote on HCR.
Though he'd better be careful what he'd wish for...that somebody could be a Republican.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
They'd need two of them
From what I understand, you need 3/5 to vote aye on cloture and fractions are always rounded up (if you had 99 members, then you'd need 3/5ths of 99 (which is 3*99=297/5=59.4 rounded up to 60)).

Basically, what we need to hope for is that Tom Coburn and James Inhofe in a bout of temporary insanity (well, temporarily more insane than they usually are) resign their seats effective immediately, that way we could pass a Medicare expansion and tell Joe Lieberman to shove it up his ass.

Of course, in my fantasy world, we'd also have about 20 more senators who are about as progressive as the Junior Senator from Vermont so... ;)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Did everybody see the clip
where the tea bagger calls into CSPAN asking Sen. Barasso how hard he prayed for Byrd to die.  Couldnt understand the guy because he was crying, thinking that all their praying back fired and killed Inhofe instead.

http://www.dailykos.com/tv/w/0...

Transcript below the video, you'll need it.  The guy is crying, has a thick southern accent, and isnt properly speak into the phone.

[ Parent ]
sorry for the typos!
I was in a rush as my pad thai was done
[ Parent ]
Wow.
That's so terrible it's beautiful in just how egregiously stupid it is.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I think the worst thing that can happen for dems would be...
for this congress to be called a do nothing congress, they are already saying it with Obama, and hopefully when the HCR passes, and if that Jobs bill passes, and if the economy picks up, the dems will enjoy majorities in congress they haven't seen since the 30's.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
MN-Gov
Two updates.

Dayton goes public with having constantly battled mild depression and having slipped back into drinking while having been a recovered alcoholic during the end of his term as a Senator.  I have absolutely no idea why he would choose to go public with this information.  He says personal disclosure of this magnitude is part of the entrance fee to the MN gubernatorial but I think that's kind of absurd, we dont expect to know every single one of his flaws, especially such deeply personal ones.  

Here is what I think, he's either trying to get some sympathy attention because he is not viewed as a likely contender for the DFL endorsement or he is worried that someone like Coleman would use this against him in the general (Im leaning the later as an optimist).  I cant imagine he'd think that other DFL contenders would attack him for this, that would be the best way for said contender to ruin all chances of winning the DFL endorsement or primary because we dont play dirty, not publicly anyway.  (There was apparently some dirty politics going on to get Franken the endorsement on the first vote, but I never got any examples and it was all very hush hush.)

Second, I just got an email from the John Marty campaign and Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer is endorsing Marty.  JNP ran against Franken and was the only one left standing by the time the convention rolled around.  JNP was one of my college profs and is the de facto leader of the peace activist crew who are a powerful constituency in DFL politics and probably one of the most active further left groups in the country.

I could seriously start my own blog and have it entirely focused on the MN-Gov race.  Hmmmmm.....

That reminds me of Doug Duncan in Maryland's 2006 gubernatorial election
He revealed his battle with depression, and dropped out shortly thereafter.

I don't understand why someone with those personal problems, who presumably left office at least partly because of them, would go back into the highly-stressful environment of campaigning for office and then governing. If I were Dayton, I'd quit politics and get my head straightened out. He's got plenty of money, it's not like he has to be in the political sphere.

[ Parent ]
The article even specfically calls him an introvert
so he is just totally in the wrong business.  But him being in the wrong business for his personality traits to me only says his heart is in the right place as are his progressive values.  You wouldnt subject yourself to this unless you really cared about the issues so I trust him on the issues.

Still not supporting him, however.  Him, Gaertner, and Kelley are the only three I've totally ruled out supporting with Bakk and Rukavina almost on the list because when it comes to marriage equality, I trust a Twin City liberal more so than an Iron Range liberal.

Entenza has a full vision for MN and has the Stonewall DFL endorsement, Kelliher being the only woman with a shot speaks heavily to my desire for gender equality in politcs, Marty's got JNP's support which means a lot to me, Rybak appeals to young, highly educated voters like myself and that's where Im at so far as a Minnesotan...

What's interesting is that Tim Walz was getting talked up all over because he wouldve had the entire the election, endorsement primary and general, wrapped up upon his entrance.

[ Parent ]
I am undecided
The only two I have ruled out are Matt Entenza and John Marty. Entenza is a slimeball, I still have not forgiven him for running opposition research against his own party's gubinatorial candidate in 2006. Marty lost by 30 points the last time he got the DFL nomination, that is a disqualifier in my book.

I like Bakk and Rukavina but I am not sure of their statewide appeal. Right now I am probably leaning slightly twords Kelliher but that could change easily. I will end end up supporting the candidate I think is most pro labor who has a legit shot to win.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

[ Parent ]
I had initially jumped onto the Entenza bandwagon
as I doubt any of the other candidates know the issues as well as he does. He clearly knew he was going to run for Gov so he started MN2020 so he knows his shit.  I then had tried to look up the information about him having to drop out of the race and only read about how the GOP massively attacked him for running for AG when his wife has made millions in the health insurance industry.

Then I read more information on it and found the opposition research stuff.  I just re-read it to get refreshen my memory and this MPR article does say that he paid for the research before Hatch announced if he was running for Gov or AG.  Thankfully Im old enough to now follow politics religiously so my lack of information wont ever happen again.

I had thought the same thing about Marty and had him on my ruled out list but he did get beat by 30% in 1994, and the JNP endorsement makes me want to give him a chance.  But Im still much  more likely to support Kelliher, Rybak or Entenza than Marty.  I want to rule out Entenza but I really feel like he has a complete vision and agenda.

[ Parent ]
Dayton needs to step aside
At first I liked the idea of Dayton running but the more I read about him the more I understand why Minnesota has gone sour on him. On the other hand, I like what I have been hearing about R.T. Ryback a lot and I think that he is the strongest candidate. My original preference was SOS Mark Ritchie after the exceptional way he handled the recount  but it is obvious he is not running. I'm hoping for a Ryback vs Coleman contest next year.
[ Parent ]
Change in Challengers' MO?
Is it just me or have challengers in large part changed the game when running against an incumbent?  It seems like there are many more intraparty challenges (if my count is correct, there are currently 88 of these). Granted there are quite a few situations where the incumbent has yet to declare (32) and challengers may just be making sure that the party has a candidate running. But I would think if that were the rationale, they'd be in an exploratory phase, not full out declaring. My breakdown shows 36 Democrats and 52 Republicans facing primaries within their party. Of these, there are 13 Democratic incumbents and 19 Republican incumbents who have yet to declare. Texas alone has 12 Republicans facing primaries.

Another thing that seems to be the case is that there appears to be more forum shopping than previously. I'm aware of at least 4 situations where that has occurred, New Jersey (Batenman), New York (Ball), Florida (Constantine), and Pennsylvania (Welch). Does this somehow indicate a desire to cull out the weakest incumbents, and run against them, no matter  where within the state they are representative?

All in all, it appears that the motives are just to get elected, regardless of incumbents' records. Putting that together with the ever increasing importance of self-funding and doctrinaire thinking, I think, really doesn't bode well for our representative government.

IL-Sen: GOP rival says Kirk is gay
Keeping it classy:

Andy Martin, a conservative public interest lawyer, put out a spot on local radio in which he pushes a "solid rumor" that fellow Senatorial aspirant, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.), "is a homosexual."

"I helped expose many of Barack Obama's lies in 2008," the ad goes. "Today, I am fighting for the facts about Mark Kirk. Illinois Republican leader Jack Roeser says there is a 'solid rumor that Kirk is a homosexual.' Roeser suggests that Kirk is part of a Republican Party homosexual club. Lake County Illinois Republican leader Ray True says Kirk has surrounded himself with homosexuals."

"Mark Kirk should tell Republican voters the truth." [...]

"The issue is not homosexuality, the question is hypocrisy; people are entitled to their privacy, they are not entitled to live public lives in the closet," Martin said in a statement announcing his ad.


Martin can rot in hell
This attack on Kirk is 100% unacceptable and offensive. "the question is hypocrisy; people are entitled to their privacy, they are not entitled to live public lives in the closet," This statement is so bigoted I don't even know how to respond to it. It's a real insult to our country when calling someone gay is considered an insult and unfortunately it's the truth in todays world. It just makes me sick to my stomach. ANdy Martin can rot in hell for all I care.        

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
[ Parent ]
Just
wait until the primary between Crist and Rubio heats up.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Proof that some adults in this country have not matured since elementary school
Well, at least their social skills.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
AL-05/AL-GOV
According to WTVM:
State Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks says he will announce within about two days whether he will remain in the Democratic race for governor or switch to the 5th Congressional District contest.

Can't
wait until Parker Griffith releases his book "How to end your political career in 5 easy steps."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Really
One thing I wonder is exactly how many (and which) Republican leaders and politicians in his district and Alabama did he reach out too before switching. Just seems like a quick few phone calls would have shown that they weren't thrilled with him, only the idea of a Democrat leaving the party.
[ Parent ]
It doesn't matter whether he did
Griffith had at most a 30% chance of holding his seat as a Democrat in 2010.  

Griffith has at least a 35-40% chance to win the GOP primary, and if he does, he has at least a 95% chance to win the general.

In blunt terms, Griffith has a better chance of keeping his seat as a Republican.  That is simply the fact.  Griffith deep down is bluntly a Republican anyway, so it was a no brainer for him.  The only downside for him is that he will get to be in a permanent minority party who has little appeal outside of rural areas.

[ Parent ]
And on what do you base your numbers?
Please show us your polling data.
[ Parent ]
The polling will come out in the next few months
Griffith did the polling before he switched.

And polling is not the whole story.  Ken Lucas polled well in 2005 and 2006 in his attempt to win back KY-4.  So did Nick Clooney initially in 2004.  Both of them lost handily, because the district was simply too Republican.  

In 2010, AL-5 is the same way, especially with Artur Davis heading the ticket.  Unlike Obama, Davis will probably get a majority of white Democrats.  But he won't get more than say 60-65% of them, which is a defection of 35-40% and enough to bury our downticket candidates.

I also predict that the GOP will pick up one or both chambers of the Alabama legislature in 2010.

[ Parent ]
If you don't have any polling, how do you come out with probabilities?
Where are your facts and data for AL-05?
[ Parent ]
Early polling of Individual races
which is often premature and inaccurate is not all that important in making predictions for congressional races.  

Much more important are the national trends and the voting patterns of the particular districts.  To that end, several polls from R2000 have shown that the Democrats are unusually  weak in the South, and the views of Southerners borders on batshit crazy (i.e. on Obama's birthplace).  Adding that most Republicans are in the South, and are fired up, I think there is a good argument to be made that the Dems are going to do 10-15% worse in the non-urban South than they did in 2008.  

While Alabama 5 is less GOP than the rest of Alabama traditionally, the fact that we won that district as an open seat by just 52-48 in a year that was heavily Democratic nationally, I think illustrates our challenges in districts like this.  The Democrats are going to be much weaker in 2010 than they were in 2008 in AL-5.  

I think it is fair to say that if the likely 2010 electorate voted in 2008 under 2008 conditions (i.e. economy being blamed on Bush and GOP), Griffith would have lost by at least 5%.  As 2010 conditions will be much worse than 208 conditions for the Dems in Alabama, even Griffith's conservative record was unlikely to save him (compare to Linc Chafee in Rhode Island in 2006, who was defeated even though 63% approved of him)

Candidates also matter, but I'd rather have a wave year than a good candidate, mediocre candidates regularly beat incumbents in wave years, but even excellent candidates have a middling record of ousting incumbents in bad or wash years.

[ Parent ]
So what is your formula
How do you come up with your probabilities?

What statistical method do you use?

What is the standard deviation in your prediction w/r/t AL-05?

Furthermore -

Why do you say that early polling is "inaccurate"? Where is your data that backs up that assumption?

[ Parent ]
Um
Your "prediction" about the state legislature is nothing new. It's been well known in Alabama circles for awhile now.

I'm curious about all of these numbers you're throwing out, where are they coming from? Are you saying you've got access to Griffith's polling?

[ Parent ]
OR-Gov, Chris Dudley (R) has a Meg Whitman problem
http://www.oregonlive.com/poli...

Republican gubernatorial candidate Chris Dudley has missed voting in seven of the last 13 elections since 2004, a record that Dudley acknowledged was embarrassing and a mistake.

Not like voting by mail is difficult here in Oregon...

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 101 comments

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