Google Ads

Site Stats

Some Apportionment Surprises in New Population Estimates

by: dgb

Wed Dec 23, 2009 at 7:17 PM EST

Election Data Services posted their reapportionment projections yesterday...and there are some big surprises.

Polidata has a good summary

States gaining based upon July 1, 2009 estimates projected to April 1, 2010: AZ +1; FL +1; GA +1; NV +1; SC +1; TX +4; UT +1; WA +1.
States losing based upon July 1, 2009 estimates projected to April 1, 2010: IL (1); IA (1); LA (1); MA (1); MI (1); MN (1); NJ (1); NY (1); OH (2); PA (1).
Thus, changes in seats compared to the previous projections based upon 2008 estimates would be: AZ gains only 1 seat while MO stays even and OR stays even while WA gains 1 seat.

Check it out: Washington would gain a seat; Arizona only gains 1; Oregon doesn't gain any.

dgb :: Some Apportionment Surprises in New Population Estimates

This table is from the EDS PDF.

From the table you can see that Washington jumps to 432nd or 433rd in all the estimates. Also, Missouri, which had been projected to lose a seat would not lose any. Texas is still projected to gain 4 seats, but that 4th seat is much more tenuous.

2010 is going to be very interesting....

Tags: Redistricting, reapportionment, (All Tags)

Print Friendly View

Send As Email

Some Apportionment Surprises in New Population Estimates | 12 comments

When will these be included in the app?

When will the population estimates in the app be updated to reflect the new population estimates?

by: gs @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 00:18:41 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

No county numbers yet

The Census Bureau has numbers for states, but not broken down to the county level, which is what I use in the app. For NY, Jeff teased out the estimates (somehow) to the voting district level.

by: dgb @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 00:36:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Intersting

We'll know the real thing before long!

by: andgarden @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 00:37:36 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Blogged CQ Politics -- Incorrect about RI

I just saw this on CQ Politics, by Bob Benenson. He says that RI is projected to lose a seat, but that is incorrect. EDS says only that RI is now projected to be closer to losing a seat. But it still is not in the 5 seats closest to the 435 cutoff.

Other than that, it's a decent discussion.

by: dgb @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 00:45:58 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Rhode Island won't lose a seat this time

But it probably will in 2022.

by: davybaby @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 02:16:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Sad...

It's awesome that we're the smallest state and yet we have more representation in Congress than the largest state. I'll miss that second seat if it's gone in 2020.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

by: sapelcovits @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 03:30:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

sigh--Iowa still loses

no matter what. I'm really worried that Tom Latham will carry a redrawn IA-03.

by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 03:46:39 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

Isn't his hometown closer to IA-01?

I'd be interested to see Latham drawn in with Braley, not with Boswell. Do you think this could happen?

by: JimM @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 17:46:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

he moved to Ames

six or seven years ago. His original hometown was in northwest Iowa, closer to IA-05 than to IA-01.

I don't think Story County, immediately north of Polk County (Des Moines) is going to end up in IA-01 unless IA-01 loses a lot of its current territory (Quad Cities, Dubuque, Waterloo).

by: desmoinesdem @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 18:49:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

South Carolina

So South Carolina is still projected to gain a seat? Does anyone know if it will be easy for it to be redistricted as a safe/likely R? Or if it can be a likely Dem because of Demographic changes?

by: TXMichael @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 04:07:25 AM UTC

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

What they'll probably do

is create another black majority district (i.e., shore up Spratt), and take the new district for themselves.

by: andgarden @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 04:15:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

by: you @ soon

To post this comment click here:

Otherwise click cancel.

More likely

Keep Spratt as is (if not slightly worse) and make an AA district around Charleston securing SC-1 and SC-2. Spratt's district is theirs once he retires which will be in the next decade.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

by: trowaman @ Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 06:08:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]