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IL-Gov, ND-Sen: Rasmussen Roundup

by: James L.

Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 6:08 PM EST


Rasmussen Reports (12/20, likely voters):

Pat Quinn (D-inc): 39
Jim Ryan (R): 46

Dan Hynes (D): 42
Jim Ryan (R): 40
(MoE: ±4.5%)

You may be feeling a sense of déjà vu. Didn't Rasmussen poll this race as recently as last week? Why yes, they did, but they happened to whiff that poll's release by forgetting to test the name of former state AG Jim Ryan, who at this point is probably the front-runner for the GOP nomination. So here's a do-over, with some unsurprisingly good results for the GOP.

And then there's North Dakota (12/17, likely voters):

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 36
John Hoeven (R): 58

Byron Dorgan (D-inc): 52
Duane Sand (R): 37
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Before now, we had seen exactly two polls of the hypothetical Dorgan v. Hoeven clash of the titans. In February, Research 2000 put out a poll showing Dorgan thumping Hoeven by 57-35 spread, while an NRSC internal poll released from July in the hopes of enticing Hoeven into the race had those numbers flipped at 53-36 in the GOP's favor. I'm inclined to believe that Dorgan would have a difficult time beating Hoeven -- if he ever decided to get off the pot and commit to running -- but I'm not sure if the spread is what Rasmussen thinks it is. I have to suspect that Dorgan is ahead of a sadsack like Duane Sand by a little more than 15 points, for instance.

James L. :: IL-Gov, ND-Sen: Rasmussen Roundup
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Correction
Should be John Hoeven, not Jim.

Hoeven won't run
He's almost as big of a tease for the GOP as Jim Edgar or Tom Kean Sr.

yeah, well
Terry Branstad ruled out running for governor in May and changed his mind after a couple of polls showed him way ahead of Chet Culver.

[ Parent ]
But Branstad doesn't have to get a house in Washington DC
I think Hoeven likes North Dakota too much to move to the District of Columbia.

[ Parent ]
Zogby posted similar numbers to ras last month
Hoeven led 55-36%: http://senatus.wordpress.com/2...

This isn't an interactive so it's less likely to be utter crap.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Zogby is dead to me.


[ Parent ]
How long until ras is too?


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Yup
He's a charlatan. Totally useless for anything.  

[ Parent ]
I really doubt Hoeven is doing that well
I do believe that if Hoeven were to jump in we would have a real race on our hands (even more so given North Dakota's low population and lack of a true urban center) but no way is he beating Dorgan by double digits out of the box.  Dorgan has been good for his state, and as I've said before I find it hard that a ranking Senator with a record of bringing home the goodies for North Dakota would be dumped for a freshman in the minority party.  I think the only way you can win against the type of incumbents that we have in the Dakotas would require a John Thune strategy - attack one incumbent to soften up your competition and improve your statewide brand, then run again in 2 years against your intended target and go for the kill.  Dorgan still has strong approval ratings - it would take a 1994 scenario or a massive screwup on his part to blow this race.

[ Parent ]
Totally agreed.
I posted in an earlier thread that Dorgan would have to burn a lot of bridges to lose by any sort of margin, which to my knowledge is not the case, and should be more than able to hold his own against Hoeven. I believe a worst case scenario would be Dorgan getting defeated in some sort of squeaker upset; or conversely him winning by thin margin.

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Especially since Dorgan can run against the party if need be
Dorgan's a populist - look at his work on prescription drug importation. He's as much an NPLer as a Democrat, and if necessary he can use that to burnish his outsider cred.

I could see Conrad being vulnerable - he's easier to pigeonhole as a conservative Democrat - but Dorgan can make the case that nobody tells him what to do.


[ Parent ]
"sad sack"
is an under-utilized label.  Nicely done.

This is why the Illinois poll is crap
Let's review Jim Ryan electoral history
1990
Lost attorney general to ROLAND BURRIS in 1990 52% to 48%
Won attorney general in 1994 (one of the best years for republicans) and then got re-elected in 1998. Then lost to corrup Rod Blagojevich in 2002 52% to 45%. Pat Quinn is EXTREMELY POPULAR  in Illinois and people in that state love him. No way is someone who was defeated by Roland Burris going to win. I predict that Pat Quinn wins with results around 57% Quinn to 40% Ryan on election night. Simply put Rasssmusen polls are not to be trusted with and I stop paying attention to them after they showed Palenty with a 56% approval rating and Michele Bachmann with a 50% (statewide) approval rating. Not to mention that Rassmussen is the only poll that makes people pay to see their crosstabs.

Absolutely no way in hell is Bachmann doing that well
and no way she'd ever be doing better than Franken statewide.

That poll has got to be a total outlier because I cant imagine Bachmann getting better than a 35% approval rating statewide.  She loathed everywhere but where she represents, and only half of where she represents at that.


[ Parent ]
When was the last time Quinn's approvals were polled?
I know he was very popular right after taking office but quickly had to make some very hard choices.  Has anyone else polled him recently?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



Actually, Rasmussen on 12/14
They had Quinn's approval at 52/44. And yet, he only gets 39% of the vote in the new poll.

[ Parent ]
I can understand federal races
Popular politicians losing but not state elections when job performance is crucial. If Quinn is really at 52-44 I can't see him losing to anybody. Let alone the guy who couldn't beat Blago. Having said that this is becoming a trend with Rasmussen - Dems with good approvals but losing.

[ Parent ]

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