Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 12/21

by: James L.

Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 7:54 AM EST


A special early morning edition of the digest!

NY-Sen-B: Will he or won't he? The New York Daily News gets in touch with Rudy Giuliani's friends and confidants to take the pulse of his ethereal Senatorial aspirations. The totally shocking consensus: Expect Rudy to quietly exit the electoral stage. Meanwhile, ex-NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson refuses to rule out a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand.

IA-Gov: Former GOP Gov. Terry Branstad will formally launch his campaign to topple Democrat Chet Culver in January. Branstad also recently gave Christian Fong, a Cedar Rapids insurance company exec who was briefly in the running for Governor himself earlier in the year, a thorough sniff test. Branstad is rumored to be interested in tapping Fong to be his running mate.

IN-Gov/IN-09: It looks like we can close the book on one of the sillier NRCC-promoted retirement "rumors" of the holiday season, as Dem Rep. Baron Hill said on Saturday that he's running for another term. However, Hill confirms that he's giving a gubernatorial bid in 2012 a long look. That might not be a bad idea for him; with redistricting looming around the corner, there's a very real possibility that state Republicans will skunk up his district beyond recognition.

FL-08: Frosh Dem Rep. Alan Grayson, continuing his quest to bring great ideas back to Congress, has filed a request with the Department of Justice to investigate and jail Republican activist Angie Langley for setting up the Grayson-themed "mycongressmanisnuts.com" website. Apparently, Grayson is upset that Langley is implying that she's one of his constituents. Somehow, I suspect that all that Grayson is accomplishing here is giving "mycongressmanisnuts.com" more opportunities to be plugged in the media.

NC-05: Local radio host Billy Kennedy, a former member of the NC Democratic Party executive committee, is "seriously considering" challenging Teabagger Queen Virginia Foxx after being urged to look at the race by local activists.

TN-06: While Democrats have yet to find a warm body to replace retiring Rep. Bart Gordon, the GOP primary between state Sens. Diane Black and Jim Tracy is producing some early friction. Black was forced to apologize on Friday for sending out a fundraising email under a government template that included her legislative contact information and an implied list of endorsements from GOP leaders -- including Tracy himself. (Former Rutherford County GOP Chair Lou Ann Zelenik is also in the race, proudly reppin' the lunatic wing of the GOP.)

VA-02: Rep. Glenn Nye the Incumbent Guy, one of the ripest targets of the Democratic class of 2008, has shed a challenger, though it was one of his more inconsequential opponents. Attorney Chuck Smith, a former Marine, has dropped out of the race and endorsed automotive executive Scott Rigell in the GOP primary.

James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/21
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Rasmussen
continues to do John Cornyn's bidding when it comes to candidate recruitment. They show Hoeven would beat Dorgan by 20+ points(!)

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12


ND Senate Race
Yes, I saw that. Dorgan could be a goner if Hoeven jumps in and Conservative Blogs like "Say Anything" in ND expecting a formal Entry by Hoeven in January.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
There were also blogs "expecting" an entry by Tom Vilsack into IA-Sen. Let's see something a little more solid than that.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Total crap
no other poll has shown Hoeven to be within single digits.  Dorgan has been good for his state, and I suspect North Dakotans aren't likely to dump a Senator who brings home the bacon for a junior member in the minority party.  As the old saying goes in the Dakotas, they send Republicans to the state capitol to keep their taxes low and Democrats to the US Capitol to bring home the pork to make up the difference.

[ Parent ]
Agreed- no way Dorgan gets pummeled in a general
I agree that it is highly unlikely Dorgan would get trounced by Hoeven in a hypothetical general. Hoeven absolutely could make this race competitive in such a low population state like ND, but unless Dorgan has burned lots of bridges he should be able to hold his own. At worst he would win or lose in a squeaker.  

Democrat: TN-8

[ Parent ]
Special Election in HI-01
I hear that Abercrombie may retire early to focus on his governor's campaign, so there will be a special election in May. Under Hawaii's election rules, there will be an all party primary to fill the seat and the winner only needs a plurality to win. This has unintended benefits for the Republican candidate as there are two strong Democrats running. Anyone want to speculate on the chances of the GOP winning a seat in Obama's hometown?

Oh, Okay
Sorry for not reading this post, but I was busy...you know, like getting on with my life?

[ Parent ]
A little overboard there
DavidNYC.  Not everyone can eat and breathe this stuff every minute.  Guess the thread hijackers have you in a testy mood.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
EVERYONE is testy right now
We could all do with taking a deep breath and thinking before posting anything.

[ Parent ]
I heard that
Hawaii might do an all-mail special election to handle the costs involved in this election

[ Parent ]
If I can summarize the other discussion
basically the point I was making is that there really aren't two strong Democrats running.  It's a strong Democrat, a conservative former Democrat, and a Republican.  The last time Ed Case ran for public office was when he primaried Senator Dan Akaka.  Hawaii has open primaries (and the GOP primaries are ignored) so that Democratic primary actually turned out to be pretty much the whole state voting on whether to keep Akaka.  Ed Case courted and received support from conservative groups and pissed off a lot of grassroots and establishment Democrats in Hawaii.

Basically, Case and Djou (the Republican) are going to split the conservative votes and Colleen Hanabusa will easily consolidate the Democratic vote.

If anything, I think this early resignation actually helps us in removing the possibility (as low as it was initially) that Ed Case might have beaten Hanabusa in the Democratic primary with support from Republicans.  Now, Republicans will be split between the two men.


[ Parent ]
Rasmussen put out another crap poll
46% Ryan
39% Quinn

This I absolutely do not believe, Pat Quinn is extremely popular in Illinois.


Ryan?
You mean the guy that lost to Blago even though it was an open secret that Blago was ethically challenged? The only way Ryan would beat Quinn if it's 1994 all over again, even then Quinn has done much to restore the honor of the governor's office in Illinois.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Different Ryan
George Ryan is currently serving time in a federal prison making new "friends."  This poll is in reference to former AG Jim Ryan (no relation).  Gotta love the Irish and Illinois politics.

[ Parent ]
Yeah
I count three Republican Ryans who have run for or held statewide office in Illinois in recent years: George, Jim, and Jack. Its easy to get them confused, and I have to imagine a lot of voters do.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
No, Jmartin4s was right
Jim Ryan was the 2002 nominee against Blago.

[ Parent ]
You're right
I thought it was George who ran in 2002.  Damn comon last names

[ Parent ]
FL-08
Can someone please tell Rep. Grayson that threating to throw your political opponents jail might not be the best way to prove to everyone that you are not actually nuts!

Sadly I think Anthony Weiner might be right. this guy could be one fry short of a Happy Meal.

Memo to Rep. Grayson STFU!  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...


Wtf
that borders on insanity. Memo to Grayson, just because your the hottest thing in the netroots right now doesn't give you carte blanche to do what ever you want.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
I hate to say it
but Grayson is becoming our Bachmann.

[ Parent ]
Grayson
I thought about saying that but then thought better of it.  The reason he is not is because what he says is usually either true or hyperbole...  What Baucman says is usually paranoid schizophrenia bs or stuff that is just out and out not true.  But yeah, they both need to shut the hell up.

[ Parent ]
Not even close
Grayson is certainly not the most politically correct speaker but where has he lied and totally made shit up?  The comparison is practically offensive because as a constituent of Bachmann's, I can tell you that that woman doesnt have a single thought in her head except conspiracy conspiracy conspiracy.  Bachmann has an extremely warped perception of reality while Grayson just wants to make the nightly news.

What really got under-publicized was her saying in March 2007 that the Democratic Congress' plan for Iraq was to divide it into three states with one third of it being given to Iran to create a terrorist training ground.  That doesnt even come close to saying that the GOP's health plan is "dont get sick and if you do, die quickly."  Or her trying to blame the swine flu outbreak on Obama.

I guess you can make the comparison in terms of getting under the other side's skin and such and having a big mouth but there is a GIANT intelligence and motive gap between the two.

Here's a video of Bachmann's prayer in the PrayerCast against HCR.

http://www.towleroad.com/2009/...

Praying to ensure poor people dont get access to healthcare, what a fucking joke.  I absolutely cannot wait to see either Clark take her out in 2010 or us redistrict her seat out of existence in 2012.  Mark my words, Bachmann will not be a Congresswoman in 2013.  We still even have a great shot if the map somehow has to go to the courts due to where Bachmann lives and how the population growth/decline has occurred.


[ Parent ]
If Thompson's serious about NY-Sen, he needs to get moving...
I'm FINALLY starting to see some TV ads highlighting the work of Gillibrand.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Gillibrand is focusing on raising money
not spending it.

[ Parent ]
John Spratt running for re-election in SC-5
per Politico: http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

I guess Boucher is the last holdout remaining

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


Good
I thought Boucher was confirmed as running?

[ Parent ]
Not 100%
As of this post Boucher was still in the 'maybe' column, but the rumors were leaning towards re-election.

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
The nightmare scenario
is that Boucher retires, and Creigh Deeds is our candidate to replace him.

[ Parent ]
I hope
Deeds got the message that he should stay in the state senate for the rest of his career. Since he doesn't know how to run a half decent campaign.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Wrong district
Deeds lives in Goodlatte's VA-06.

If Boucher retires, the seat is gone. About the only candidate who might make it close is State Sen. Phil Puckett, and he'd be a good bit to the right of Boucher.


[ Parent ]
Right, but
Congresspeople aren't required to live in their district, only their state.

[ Parent ]
Why would Deeds run for Congress in a district he has no ties to?


[ Parent ]
Why would he run there?
He'll run if he thinks he can win.

It wouldn't be nearly as extreme as Tom McClintock, a GOP state senator from Thousand Oaks, California (just inland from Malibu,) like Deeds a former candidate for governor, running for congress and winning in 2008 in CA-04, the Northeast corner of the state, which is 500 miles from T.O.


[ Parent ]
Don't Democrats control the Indiana State House
Doesn't that mean that they can prevent a Republican gerrymander (assuming we hold on)?

yes but
we control it 52-48 so it isn't exactly a sure thing that we will have it whereas the repubs have a supermajority in the senate and the governor's mansion

[ Parent ]
Also if the House and Senate disagree the Governor is the tiebreaker for redistricting


21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Correct
The Rs will control Congressional redistricting in IL.

[ Parent ]
CT-Sen: McMahon internal polling has her beating Simmons
Usually
a divisive primary will help here, but Dodd is so universally hated in CT you could put a dead corpse up against him and the corpse will win.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
NY-Gov/Sen: Rudy won't run, will endorse Lazio
Phew
Hopefully this starts a bit of trend of them failing to get their top recruits.

[ Parent ]
Now we just need to hear from Pataki
and he's seeming to be going the presidential route.  

But this seat should be a pretty safe Dem hold soon enough.


[ Parent ]
AL-2: Bobby Bright (D, Inc.) v. Martha Roby (R)
I just finished watching a candidate interview of Martha Roby (R) on CQ.com.

See here http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmsp...

If this is the candidate the GOP hopes will defeat Bobby Bright in 2010, I'd file him under Lean D. She didn't talk much but the little she said tells me she's not going to Congress. Bright has nothing to fear about her candidacy b/c she is clearly out of her league and not very..dare I say it...bright!


Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  


Wow...that was unimpressive
Why on Earth did the NRCC think she was such a catch? Her big reason to not vote for Bobby Bright is that he voted for Nancy Pelosi and votes with Democrats too often?

The first part of that criticism Bright already responded to in the Parker Griffith/Pelosi insane asylum controversy (basically he said that Pelosi lets Bright vote how he wants, while Republicans don't). The second part is an obvious lie when you're talking about someone who votes against his own party more than basically any other Congressman. But good luck with that attack, Ms. Roby, I'm sure a first-tier politician like Bright won't be able to think of a good counter to that one.

Although in her defense, she didn't seem that dumb (especially compared to, say, Lynn Westmoreland, Steve King or Lynn Jenkins, for that matter). Just kinda...unenthusiastic?  Lackluster? Washed out?

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
I was expecting worse
By current southern Republican standards she comes off as a cross between Einstein and Mary Poppins.

[ Parent ]
Meh, I think she seems pretty good
but the question about why fire Bobby Bright, WEAK!  She basically proved herself wrong by showing that Bright is a conservative Democrat who doesnt misrepresent their vote that horribly much at times.

She said he voted for Pelosi, and her agenda is extremely liberal.  And then for stupid reason throws in, he votes with his party 70% of the time!  That statistic just sounds weak when said out loud.


[ Parent ]
Here's some stats on Bright Andrew
Although this isn't a party line record, Bright has a 43 percent rating from progressive punch

http://www.progressivepunch.or...

The stat Roby must of got that said Bright votes with the Democrats 70 percent of the time must of came from the WaPo voting database where it says he voted with his party 70.7 percent of the time

http://projects.washingtonpost...


[ Parent ]
TX-Gov
Did you know that Kay Bailey Hutchinson will be the first Senator to primary a Governor? I didn't. At that link, you will also see a list of the 5 other Senators who were elected Governor since 1956.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


I finally have an NY-3 that I'm happy with
Peter King doesn't stand a chance, and everyone else has a safe district.  

Parker Griffith switching parties
Good riddance.  


Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?


About the Site

SSP Resources

Blogroll

Powered by: SoapBlox