IA-Gov

Terry Branstad has a lot of chutzpah. I wonder how long he can keep getting away with criticizing Culver for stuff he did while he was governor.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:12:11 PM CST

Caption Proposal

Carly Fiorina demonstrates the amazing ability to advocate for tractors' rights without noticing a mathematical pun.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

---

by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:13:30 PM CST

Caption

John Deere "reps" show up at an empty rally to rub in their superiority because nothing Carly runs runs like a Deere.

---

by: David Kowalski @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:02:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

A Political Picture Worth 1000 Words

We should have a roundup of these. Exasperated Dede Scozzafava surrounded by Hoffman sign-holders would be another good one.

29, D, CA-27, 2nd class citizen

---

by: arealmlc @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 23:05:21 PM CST

[ Parent ]

IA-03: 5 GOP candidates now

They had trouble recruiting anyone in 2008, and I don't remember contested GOP primaries in 2002, 2004 or 2006. Now five Republicans are taking on Boswell.

Most of the GOP establishment are behind either Jim Gibbons or Brad Zaun, who are going to have the most money unless one of the lesser-known Repubs can self-fund (I have no idea).

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:13:58 PM CST

CA-Sen: Is she really speaking to nobody?

 
  Between Carlyfornia and Chuck "Q: Is he not man? A: He is DEVOre", the Senate race is looking weirder and weirder. That's OK with me; it just makes it more likely that Boxer has an easier re-election. Supposedly Tom Campbell is considering switching from CA-Gov to the Senate race which might add some sanity and gravitas to the GOP field, but it is still looking real good for Babs.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:14:52 PM CST

Can anybody tell me

why Charlie Cook has this race rated as Lean D?  I have seen no indication whatsoever that the Republicans have any chance of winning.  I put it as Solid D for sure.  Does anybody out in CA have an opinion on this?

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

---

by: StephenCLE @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 22:05:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Maybe slightly short of safe

   but at least a strong "Likely D". Yeah I am in CA; the SFV in my name is the San Fernando Valley part of the city of L.A.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 22:49:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yeah, "Likely D" sounds about right

Carly Fiorina's not a great candidate by any stretch (although Chuck DeVore's probably even worse), but I don't think Barbara Boxer's approval is quite strong enough to declare her a 100% guaranteed winner. Odds are, Boxer has about a 55% floor for this race, but 43% approval in an anti-incumbent year would make me a little nervous.

Plus, I seem to be in the minority who thinks Meg Whitman actually has a shot at beating Jerry Brown, and if I'm correct there, it would obviously help the GOP down the ballot.

BTW...is that photo for real? Forget the emptiness around her; I don't understand why the cameras are stationed so far away. It's a downright bizarre shot.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

---

by: andyroo312 @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 23:13:49 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The CDP is terrible.

Incredibly terrible. Don't take state offices for granted in California.  

---

by: Kanamit @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 23:29:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Cook is way off IMO

A few of his Senate ratings seem off at the moment.  I can see MAYBE calling California Likely D, but it's more like Safe D for now.  I can't see any circumstance Boxer loses.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 01:42:58 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Cook rating

You might want to take a look at Boxer's job approval, fav/unfavs and re-elect numbers for a clue why the Cook Political Report rates her races as just Lean Democrat (all weak).  Plus she had just $6 million in the bank (not much in California) and against a wealthy opponent.

Charlie Cook

---

by: ccook @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 10:34:53 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sounds like your rating is based on generic numbers

I note you didn't list the head-to-head polls that have been done.  

---

by: tietack @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 10:57:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

No

It's not. I'm sure Jennifer Duffy looks at things just as holistically as anyone else. I think Charlie is arguing that Boxer's personal numbers, as opposed to or even in spite of the head-to-heads, form the basis of this opinion. I disagree with that "weighting" so to speak, but the folks at Cook undoubtedly consider everything.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:03:03 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I don't think you contradicted me

in substance....

though it's appropriate for someone in your position to talk up the merits of someone as respected as Cook. (It's appropriate for you to say "of course they consider everything.")

---

by: tietack @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:34:29 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sorry

I read your comment as "based solely on generic numbers" (as if to the exclusion of all else), rather than something like "based primarily on generic numbers," or what have you. My mistake.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 14:10:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I see the argument, Charlie

But you are the outlier on this one. CQ, Rothenberg, and Sabato all have this one as Safe D. SSP rates it as a "Race to Watch" - that is, a race with potential to graduate to a more competitive status, as opposed to something like SD-Sen.

All the non-Rasmussen polls have had her up fairly big against Fiorina, and even the last couple of Rasmussens have shown a sizable advantage compared to that one Boxer+4 poll they ran. Her job approvals aren't awesome, but only SUSA shows her underwater. Same with her favorables, which aren't too bad according to the Pollster averages.

I could see Likely D for this race. But I think Fiorina has far more to prove before Lean D is a possibility, even given the tough background environment for Dems.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:01:19 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Good to get perspective

From the source itself.  I guess going mostly by personal approval/dissaproval this early in the game isn't a bad idea.  Still the polling has been mostly positive.  

I think we can all agree that if somehow, Barbara Boxer goes down, it will mean that the sky is falling for the Democrats, to the point where the Senate could be lost.  You have to figure that Connecticut, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Illinois, Colorado, & Nevada are ALL more likely to flip in California.  Heck, I'd say Wisconsin and Indiana are more likely to turn than California is.  California's just way too liberal to throw out a non-scandalized incumbent.  The only reason the Repubs have any chance in liberal bastions like Connecticut, Delaware, or Illinois is because those seats are open/Chris Dodd is ruined by scandal.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

---

by: StephenCLE @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 12:23:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Take it from someone who lives in the state

Boxer is going to have her seat for years to come. Fiorina has HP hanging over her head, and if Boxer is cornered, she'll come out with all guns blazing. In 1998, Boxer managed to win after almost everyone wrote her off as dead. Read this article below:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

18, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:54:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The only way I could see that Leans ranking

Is if Ex. Rep. Campbell jumps into the Senate race (he's arguably a stronger candidate than either Fiorina or DeVore).

Until that happens, I don't think calling it anything short of Likely is being a little bit too much.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01

---

by: DGM @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:44:48 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Lean D is lean delusional

Her numbers have always been like this.  She is just not loveable, but it is just a totally irrational disconnect to think that means "lean D".

Cook's illogic concludes that if Boxer was 48/46 approvals, and generic Republican was 6/80, that would still be a "lean D".

Boxer's situation is simple to summarize, she can beat almost any Republican easily, but many voters would prefer a different Democrat to her.

---

by: tommypaine @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:23:22 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Hahaha

Good work on DeVore's name.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 00:12:03 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Glad you liked it!

  Something about the de-evolution of the CA Greedy Old Party inspired me to change the capitalizations in DeVore's name.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 02:17:28 AM CST

[ Parent ]

OK, I've gotta ask

What's the deal with Carly's hair (or lack thereof)?

---

by: davybaby @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:31:53 PM CST

Dealing with cancer

These past few months were tough for her, including her step daughter's death.

Other than that, she's done for in a general election.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

---

by: californianwonder @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:34:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Didn't know that

Well the woman has courage.  I'll give her that.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 01:43:49 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed.

Whatever you think of her politics your heart has to go out to someone who is fighting cancer.

It says something about Carly that even while fighting cance she still willing to get involved in the political process.

While we might disagree we can still respect her for it.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 12:26:41 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm sorry to hear that

I wish her a speedy recovery--and then a crushing defeat by Boxer.

---

by: davybaby @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 08:36:00 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I almost feel sorry for Fiorina myself.

That has me wondering how much of a sympathy vote there will be if Fiorina is in the general. (That makes me hope DeVore wins the primary.)

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 01:42:18 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Why not feel for her?

Having fellow feeling for a cancer survivor goes beyond politics. I'm sure you'll agree with me that we should never dehumanize our opponents. Senator Kennedy never did.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 02:26:38 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes I do. I didn't mean to put the "almost" in there.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 02:54:49 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I meant to say

that I almost would vote for her. Of course I sincerely wish her a speedy recovery. Better be careful when commenting at 2 AM.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 10:17:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I get it

I still wouldn't almost vote for someone, on the basis of her health. A cancer survivor with bad politics still has bad politics. But I knew you didn't mean that you were less than fully sympathetic to her as a person.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 16:44:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Taegan Goddard on the Jim Bohannon Show

said he doesn't see how Harry Reid can win reelection, for whatever it's worth. Link if you want to listen.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:33:59 PM CST

I don't either

After finding out Sue Lowden's worth over $50 million and is probably very willing to spend it.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 23:11:55 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I know a lot of people are going to be angered by this statement but I'm actually kind of hoping Harry Reid will loose

We have been waiting for months for healthcare reform to pass but because Harry Reid is refusing to use the nuclear option or reconcilliation, we won't get any. Seriously, Harry Reid is letting Joe Leiberman physically kill any chance of a public option or buy in because he is a weak spineless majority leader. It is no wonder Nevada has turned sour on Harry Reid and it is justifiable, he is just a plain awful majority leader who is running the democrats into the ground rather than pushing through a progressive agenda. I am in Washington DC for a couple of days and decided to go visit the senate and watch the healthcare debate. On my way out, I stoped by Senator Kerry, Kirk, and Reid's office and to request that they use reconciliation to pass healthcare reform rather than let Joe Lieberman kill it (even though it made no difference). While the interns in Senator Kirk and Kerry office where warm and nice, I got a very cold and nasty responce from those in Harry Reid's which really turned me off.

If I were a Nevada voter, after all this frustration I probably would not even bother voting in the senate race because Harry Reid's leadership has been so awful. This is explain why Reid's approvals have been so low and why he has been trailing nobody opponents in the polls by as much as double digits. If we want to save the seat have Shelly Berkley primary Harry. Its time to throw Harry Reid out and get a pitbull like Chuck Schumer as majority leader. Simply put, Harry Reid's performance this year has been horrendous and it is perfectly understandible why Nevada voters are furious!

---

by: jmartin4s @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 00:00:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I would bother voting in Nevada

and I would vote for the Republican.  Harry Reid needs to be removed from the Senate, he is probably the worst majority leader in history.  

---

by: JSmith @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 00:24:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

He's a great majority leader

For us. He is HORRIBLE for ya'll. Sometimes, you actually have to question who he is working for. As a Majority Leader and candidate....

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 00:59:40 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Exactly

Bill Frist would of never let these shenanigans ever happened. If he had 60 Republican senators he would of relegated the Democrats to an insignificant minority. One thing I admire the GOP of over is they are good when it comes to guerrilla warfare in the senate.  

18, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 09:50:55 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Schumer

Worries me as a majority leader. He'd be horrible for us.  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 10:33:33 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I hope he will be in 2011

but I have a sense that Reid will use a nasty smear campaign to somehow get himself reelected.  Reid has no personal respect for Lowden on Tarkanian liek he did for Ensign (which is why he didn't smear him in 1998 and why he made sure than no strong Democrat would run against Ensign in 2000 or 2006)
But yes, Harry Reid is one Democrat I hope is not back in 2011.

---

by: JSmith @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:00:47 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Frist would have tried

but he wasn't that effective either.  Even Trent Lott was more effective.

On the other hand, Mitch McConnell is a nasty guy, and would have done what you said.  

---

by: JSmith @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:02:17 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Let's move on

From this topic.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:04:37 AM CST

[ Parent ]

is Reid Majority Leader or a Sen trying to get re-elected

I think Reid is showing the problems that go with electing a Senator from a swingstate to be Majority Leader.

Sen Reid is not stupid. He saw what happened to his pedicessor Sen Daschle and doesnt what that to happend to him.

A Majority Leaders #1 priority needs to be helping is caucus. Sadly Reid's #1 priority is getting re-elected. And seems to be putting his re-election ahead of what's right for Democrats or the country.

That is why Reid is failing as Majority Leader. Next time Dems need to pick a Majority Leader from a safe Dem state and NOT a GOP leaning swingstate.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 13:23:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

lol

So true.  Even republicans know Reid is a joke.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:39:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

You see, this troubles me

this would be a vote of spite, a waste of a vote. You're voting for someone you disagree with against someone you mostly agree with because you are not happy with his role as Majority Leader.

Wouldn't this time better be spent primarying the guy?  

---

by: DTOzone @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 00:49:21 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Easier said than done

when Reid practically controls the NDP and has millions in his warchest to boot.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 00:58:36 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sure

but if the level of dissatisfcation is THAT high, shouldn't it therefore make it easier.

Basically this sounds like "I can't make him lose, I can't make other Nevada Democrats voted against him, so I'm just going to throw the whole thing to the crazies"

Sounds like bitter suicide to me.  

---

by: DTOzone @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 11:02:45 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Never underestimate

Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 20:10:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

i'm more angry about the confusion of loose and lose

sorry, it's just my biggest internet pet peeve.  if i thought it was a typo i'd be fine, but it never seems to be.  LOSE= he will lose the game.  the candidate will not win, thus he will lose.  loose=the shirt is loose and baggy.  turn the jar lid until it comes loose.  

being normal is for the mediocre.

---

by: doug_tuttle @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 00:27:52 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes!!! Thank You.

  That has been bothering me lately as well. Seems like it is becoming more common, too.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 02:22:32 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Shelly Berkley...

...will not run against Harry Reid in 2010.

Shelly Berkley will run against John Ensign in 2012. And she will win.

She knows this.

It's why I'm less worried about Reid losing in 2010 - I'm highly confident that the medium-term chess game for Democrats in Nevada looks quite good indeed. The worst case scenario is that we may have to put up with two R's until 2010, but we'll almost certainly have Berkley in 2012, and we would have an excellent chance of picking off Lowden (or whomever) in 2016.

---

by: betterdonkeys @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 00:59:19 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I'm not angered

I agree with you.  If we have only a few Senate losses offset by pickups in states like OH, NH and MO I'd love for Reid to be one of our losses.  In fact I'd be thrilled if he were our only loss.  

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 01:45:48 AM CST

[ Parent ]

I'd like to see Reid be the only loss too

I'm undecided about Lincoln, on one hand her record this term is so bad that she ought to go, OTOH, without having to face reelection until 2016, she might behave in a more conciliatory fashion.

---

by: JSmith @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 05:57:20 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Lincoln should go

Ideally to a D primary challenger, but if not then I'm ok with her losing to an R. Debbie Stabenow would then take over the Ag Committee before the next farm bill is drafted.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 07:22:43 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Swap Reid and Lincoln

For Carnahan and Hodes. Works for me.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 14:38:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Only parts of the bill that impinge on the budget can be passed by reconciliation

and it's not at all clear there's even a simple majority for that now. Here's Nate Silver's take on reconciliation:

If your lone objective were to end up with something that you could call a public option, then yes -- reconciliation offers some possibility of that. But I don't see how you're likely, on balance, to wind up with a better bill -- losing the guaranteed issue provision alone would probably outweigh the inclusion of a public option.

There's also the idea, which Jon has advanced, of using the reconciliation process for some parts of the bill but not for others. It's a creative idea, but I don't see how it works, since it's not like you can keep this a secret from people. If you plan to pass certain provisions under reconciliation so as to circumvent Ben Nelson, it seems to me nearly certain that Ben Nelson would counter-circumvent you by filibustering the parts of the bill that you attempted to pass under regular order. So you'd still end up with half a loaf -- although maybe a different half than you might have otherwise.

Now, I certainly do think the Democrats would have some chance of passing portions of the bill under reconciliation in 2011; in that case you wouldn't have this transparent bait-and-switch with the moderates and could claim that you'd received a new mandate from the public.

He's said elsewhere that he can count less than 50 senators who'd be very likely to vote for even a weak public option under reconciliation now. But perhaps that might change when the plan is closer to actually starting.

I also consider Reid a weak leader, but as others have pointed out here, unlike previous Democratic Majority Leaders, he can't depend on any Republican support of anything, so each Senator in his caucus really has him by the balls, not vice versa. I do think Schumer would be stronger, but I'm not sure he could successfully push someone like Lieberman to act in what would seem like a politically sensible way for a Senator from Connecticut - or Nelson of NE and Southern senators like Landrieu and Lincoln to vote in ways that might be tough to sell to their constituents.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 03:41:46 AM CST

[ Parent ]

You could pass quite a bit using reconciliation

Public option, allowing more people to join Medicare/Medicaid, subsidies, and a solid tax on the wealthy to pay for all of this.  

The threat of reconciliation/nuclear option might get Lieberman, and the others to vote for cloture.  Without that threat there, these worthless corporate hacks can behave as the terrorists that they are and can keep the American people held hostage using blackmail.

---

by: JSmith @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 05:55:10 AM CST

[ Parent ]

More or less

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 06:12:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sheesh

Seriously? The healthcare bill? Reconciliation? Filibuster? These are not SSP topics. If you want to talk about why Harry Reid's stewardship of the Democratic caucus may or may not impact his electoral prospects, that is more than fine.

But debating the finer points of reconciliation? Absolutely not.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 11:06:52 AM CST

[ Parent ]

LOL

Read the Rasmussen Missouri poll diary. Seriously people, I come here to get away from all this HCR stuff.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 14:40:56 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Sigh

Been a busy week for me - hadn't read that thread. Well, I can tell you that there will be bannings as a result of that one. I've warned everyone so many times - everyone has had more than fair notice.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:57:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Sigh

Now I feel awful. It is such an immotive issue I can understand it. Please don't do that.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:59:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Don't blame yourself

I would have read it at some point this weekend. I know it's an emotional issue, which is why I have warned people 10,000 times to stay away from it.

I've seen a lot of sites turn into toxic waste pits because they became havens for axe-grinders. SSP has been going strong for six years, with one of the best comments sections around, precisely because we've worked hard to stay focused on bloodless horserace analysis. I'm not going to start going soft because people can't keep their emotions in check.

I don't want this site to become the next victim of the primary wars or the healthcare wars or the legislation wars or what-have-you. Over the years, people have repeatedly said, both on this site and to my face in person, that they really appreciate that SSP is a haven from all those endless battles. I plan on keeping things that way.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 16:09:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Perhaps you can put your vision in a "Readme" about the site

It's the first time I've seen (or at least the first time I remember seeing):

SSP has been going strong for six years, with one of the best comments sections around, precisely because we've worked hard to stay focused on bloodless horserace analysis.

I get distracted at times as well. But I enjoy analyzing political horseraces.

It would be helpful to have something like what you said here as say a 'mission statement' or some such clickable from the menu screen - including the following:

I've seen a lot of sites turn into toxic waste pits because they became havens for axe-grinders

Including the following as a guide / caution to users on why one might get banned:

I don't want this site to become the next victim of the primary wars or the healthcare wars or the legislation wars or what-have-you. Over the years, people have repeatedly said, both on this site and to my face in person, that they really appreciate that SSP is a haven from all those endless battles. I plan on keeping things that way.

---

by: tietack @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 16:18:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Sure, I'll do that

But no one involved in that massive derail was a new commenter, and hadn't seen the admins (or fellow users) warn against such conversations, and the several meta diaries I've done on this as well. Point being, everyone in that thread was very familiar with SSP and had been on notice for a long time.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 16:36:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Fair enough

I just hope people come back.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 16:18:14 PM CST

[ Parent ]

This site had been great for quite some time

but then I think Obama won and that adds a whole other dimension to debating politics as we can finally debate policy because we can all agree just about everything from Bush was crap.  I think we've added a dimension to debate and it's really easy to slide from what's appropriate here to merely debating policy and Blue Dogs vs Liberals.

---

by: Andrew @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:00:05 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I know

I tried to back out several times and was always civil, but it gets passions really stirred and I found myself not really capable of staying away.  We won't go back there...lock the topic if you want, David, but there was and is so much frustration and not a real good blog in which to express it among rational people...so please try not to ban us.

29, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 16:09:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

HCR?

Just curious, what does "HCR" stand for?

Also, let me add my support to David's comments.  SSP is the only political blog I continue to read regularly, because it's the only one that had consistently intelligent discussion and stay away from all the flame throwing that is so common on other sites.  I've pretty much given up on MyDD after really enjoying it for a long time.  Others, too, get only occasional glances hoping to find something of value.  But SSP remains a daily treat.

---

by: LanceS @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 08:45:09 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Health Care Reform

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 11:28:55 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Sorry, David

I've really been avoiding commenting on all this kind of discussion, for the most part, and have definitely been avoiding any kind of invective. I put that post up as information but recognize that you are right about it being off-topic here.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

---

by: Pan @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 16:50:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

This Is Why I'm Not Interested in This Race

I think it's lunacy to pull for replacing someone who is trying (effectively or not) to get Democratic legislation passed with another automatic vote for Mitch McConnell's obstructionism. That said, sure he's been disappointing - though I also think people greatly overstate the degree to which he can reliably hold 60 votes through acting like the LBJ of legend (which is somewhat different than the actual LBJ). So given my lack of enthusiasm, I really can't say I want to read anything about this race. I'd much rather see stories on Kentucky, New Hampshire and Missouri. But since Reid is Reid I suppose much of the ink on the 2010 campaign will be focused on Nevada.

---

by: armand @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 09:28:23 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Blue Dog Defense : Tennesee's 6th

Now that we won't have a Gordon to defend this R+13 district, it will be a quite hard seat to hold.

What is our Dem bench in Al Gore's old seat looking like?

---

by: lordpet8 @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:42:30 PM CST

Some discussion here

http://swingstateproject.com/d...

updates appreciated. The Mayor of Murfesboro, as I remember, seemed promising.

---

by: tietack @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:48:18 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Along with LA-3

this is one seat that you can say hello to your teabagging wingnut Congressperson in 2011.  

And I think that is fair, given that the people of this district likely want this kind of person to represent them.

---

by: JSmith @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 21:53:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I would rather not waste resources

trying to defend an R+13 open seat in the south next year.

We have better seats to target.

Which is not to say we shouldn't try to recruit a good candidate, but let's not have illusions.

---

by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 22:19:54 PM CST

[ Parent ]

The Snowpocalypse Descends.

   The 2 feet+ of snow predicted to fall in DC will give me oodles of time to win that babka.  Mother nature and, dare I say, Republican Jesus, are on my side.

23, Male, PA-07

---

by: cilerder86 @ Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 22:26:48 PM CST

I've got two draft maps already

and I'm happy with neither. Upstate is particularly frustrating.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 06:15:02 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Especially as all the reps live in awkward places

If Slaughter lived west of Rochester, if Massa didn't live so far from Buffalo or Rochester, or if Maffei and Arcuri lived further west you'd be able to take out Lee easily and still have decent maps.

As it is, my current drafts either have to leave a Republican sink there or create enormous fajita strips.

On an entirely unrelated note, what's with all the Roman township names in Onondaga and environs? They all seem to be ripped straight from the pages of Livy.

---

by: Englishlefty @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 08:14:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

It's a good question

I'm from Pennsylvania, so I don't know the history.

As to the districts in W. NY, I'm probably pairing Massa and Hinchey. One Democrat clearly has to go upstate.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 08:30:39 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Wikipedia reports

that the names were chosen by a classics-obsessed government clerk. FWIW.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 10:27:15 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Speaking of Wikipedia

I believe (though Jeff can correct me if I'm wrong) that that's where our information about where the Reps live is from. It's possible that some of that information is wrong or out-of-date. For instance, Wikipedia only said that Velazquez lives in "Brooklyn" (helpful!), but I dug up some old NYT articles that say she lives in Williamsburg. Don't know if she still does, but I could not confirm one way or the other.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 17:02:13 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Let alone where in Williamsburg

In any case, for the directionally challenged among us (i.e. me), even isolating the general location can take a good bit of glance back and forth between maps.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:31:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Looked up where she lives

 She is basically right next to the Williamsburg bridge.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

---

by: Alibguy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:16:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

How did you look this up? (eom)

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 22:47:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I was thinking about the voter registration database

But as it turns out, she's in the White Pages. (DOH!)

---

by: andgarden @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 22:57:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yeah but

How do you know it's the right Nydia Velazquez?

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 17:06:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

whitepages.com

says it is. Who knows if they're right, though.  

---

by: andgarden @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 17:29:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Same with many of the L.A. reps.

That added to the challenge I gave myself of making districts that had all the reps' homes in their districts. Wiki lists Brad Sherman, Howard Berman, Henry Waxman, Xavier Becerra, Diane Watson, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Maxine Waters, and Jane Harman as all residing in L.A. They only specify where three of the reps live: Sherman in Sherman Oaks, Waters in Hancock Park (6 miles west of downtown), and Harman in Venice.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:27:01 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Howard Berman lives in Valley Village

  which is the southern part of North Hollywood (91607) adjacent to Studio City. He used to live in Panorama City (north Van Nuys). Like anyone else Congresscritters can move if necessary to keep their jobs...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

---

by: Zack from the SFV @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 01:39:08 AM CST

[ Parent ]

MN SEN District 26 special

Update.

I posted about this race last week when the seat just opened up. This week he dates for the election have been set and the field is starting to form.

Candidate Filing Period:             December 23, 2009 to December 29, 2009  
Special Primary (if necessary):    January 12, 2010
Special Election: January 26, 2010

So far 5 Republicans and 1 Independence party candidate have declared.

http://www.owatonna.com/news.p...

No Democrats have declared so far but someone is expected to early next week (Rumor is it is District 26A state Rep Kory Kath who would be a very strong candidate).

This election will be a 3 way affair as the Independence Party has a legitimate candidate in Waseca mayor Roy Srp. The IP historicly does very well in this are of the state(Dean Barkly got over 20%)

To me the Republican field looks weak. The biggest Republican name is Owatonna mayor Tom Kuntz, who last year lost to Kath 57-43 in the state house race. The Reps will hold a convention Dec 28 to narrow the field.

---

by: MinnesotaMike @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 00:58:29 AM CST

Avatar

Just saw it, great movie.  Go see it.  Not often you get a big budget movie with heart and meaning these days.  And ya, it's also good that the right-wingers hate this movie.  :)

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 01:48:25 AM CST

We do?

I don't even know what its about. I keep seeing commercials for it. It doesn't look good. Doesn't look like my kinda movie. Anyway, why do we hate it?  

---

by: GOPVOTER @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 02:32:58 AM CST

[ Parent ]

You hate it...

Because it advocates caring about people instead of money for corporations.  

---

by: Hamtree @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 03:51:34 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Oy

This is just not a good conversation, so, no. Fin.

---

by: DavidNYC @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 03:56:03 AM CST

[ Parent ]

CA-44

I sent $25 out of my own pocket to Bill Hedrick to this district (I live here), while I was in SF for College.  I was pleasantly surprised when I came down here I had a hand written Thank You card from the Campaign Manager thanking me for my donation.

I'm not sure if this is common or not, because I had never donated money to a candidate, but It really makes me want Bill Hedrick to win this district even more than before.

19, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Bill Hedrick(D) for CA-44

---

by: daman09 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 13:14:44 PM CST

i know how you feel

i sent a few bucks to eric massa last year and got a routine form letter back with a personal thank you on the bottom clearly written by massa. i was pleasantly surprised that he took the time to thank me himself. i'm sure i am not the only one who got this kind of response.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:58:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I wish more reps would give those kinds of responses.

Check out the 2010 California races and help us take back Red California!

27, Indy, Female, TX-03

---

by: californianintexas @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:13:38 PM CST

[ Parent ]

it could'nt hurt!!

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:18:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

IN-9th

Baron Hill will run for reelection
http://www.courier-journal.com...

---

by: lovespolitics @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:13:38 PM CST

GOOD!

Geez, never had figured out why he was even thinking about retiring. Man, this is a relief.

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:18:07 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Good

One of the most baseless and annoying retirement rumors goes down.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:19:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Where is Mike Sodrel?

Indiana 9th districts won't be the same without him running a 5th consecutive time.

---

by: ChadInFL @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:47:04 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I think

I read somewhere that he was busy writing a book or something.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 15:52:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I'll add to the chorus of "Thank Goodness"s

Sure, Baron Hill is a blue dog who drivs progressives crazy from time to time -- but not only is he the best we can probably get in SE Indiana, he's an excellent congressman who honestly does try to best represent his district.  Having met him on several occasions, I can also say he's a super-nice guy who is as close to an "Average person who just happens to be a Congressman" as you'll ever find.

As I (and others) have said before, I think here's how things are going to play out in Indiana over the next couple of cycles: Hill and Brad Ellsworth will most likely be re-elected to their house seats (as probably will the entire Indiana delegation) next fall.  Then the Republicans will control redistricting.  Knowing they can't beat Ellsworth in his Evansville-based district, if they're smart they will make IN-08 more Democratic, mainly by moving Bloomington back from IN-09 to IN-08 (which is where it historically has been forever until the Dems moved it in 2000).  This will pretty much screw over Hill or any Democrat there.  

This all will lead Baron Hill to run for governor in 2012, and while I doubt he'll have the field to himself, he'd most likely be the early frontrunner.  If Senator Lugar retires (and I have absolutely no idea if he will), that would open up a Senate seat, and I wouldn't be suprised if Ellsworth went for that.  Hill for Gov/Ellsworth for Senate would be a very, very solid 1-2 punch for our side here in 2012.  The only drawback is they are both from the southern part of the state -- for months, they would have to spend about half of their time in Indianapolis and the other half in northern Indiana.  One upside is that if redistricting plays out as I've speculated, and Ellsworth does run for senate, a Evansville-Terre Haute-Bloomington house seat can be held by a typical Democrat, and we'd have a ton of good people to run in that district.

OK, I'm done getting ahead of myself!

---

by: IndianaProgressive @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 08:38:23 AM CST

[ Parent ]

One variable you missed

Donnelly. The Republicans could very well make his district much more . . . "uncomfortable" and he may be looking for an out in 2012 as well. I think the more likely outcome would be Donnelly and Hill running statewide while Ellsworth enjoys his new, safer seat which may be more liberal than he is.

Personally, of the three U.S. Reps, I would like Hill in the Senate the most of them. He impresses me as a Kay Hagan/Bill Nelson/Claire McCaskall type Senator. I can get behind that.

25, Male, Democrat, TX-26

---

by: trowaman @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 14:09:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Agreed that Joe Donnelly ...

... also might get rogered in redistricting.  I was playing around with the redistricting tool, and you can create a sliver-thin district from Gary/Hammond/East Chicago, through Michigan City and take in all of South Bend, and be right at the correct population.  Cede that to us, and have Donnelly either run there against Pete Visclosky or someone else (and probably lose), or run in a new IN-02 which would take in the rural areas south of there, and like any D, definately lose.

If this all comes to pass something like we're talking about, I think Ellsworth's seat definately would be a bit more liberal than he is (although far from a "progressive" seat -- Bloomington would be the only liberal area in it).

Again, all of this is just parlor game speculation until we see what the map looks like, and what Senator Lugar does.  Another thing that could upset the apple cart is that Secretary of State Todd Rokita (a fairly conservative Republican, but of the relatively sane variety -- he's not done a terrible job) is pushing to create a more non-partisan redistricting committee to handle all of this here.  I haven't heard that much about it, so I'm skeptical if it will go anywhere, but he's thrown it on the table.

---

by: IndianaProgressive @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 17:30:42 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It doesn't even have to be "sliver-thin"

You can make the modified district about as thick as half of Lake County, which really doesn't look horrible.

---

by: gs @ Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 16:24:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

tom perriello

i thought this week i would turn my "sockpuppet like maniacal focus" on tom perriello. he appears to be one of the biggest targets of the nrcc. any thoughts out there as to his chances of surviving 2010?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 16:09:03 PM CST

Perriello is interesting

Most folks on here, I think, would tell you that he's more or less doomed in 2010.

Historically, first term incumbents that were 'surprise winners' don't last long. Perriello won because of several factors coming together (Obama's turnout wave, Warner being on the ballot, and Goode's weakness, for example) and none of those will be present in 2010. Besides that, he's frankly done himself no favors with his voting record, tending to be a 'yea' on the big votes when freshmen from safer districts aren't.

Robert Hurt sounds like a strong candidate, but I doubt he'll energize the Republican base, which is probably why there's already teabaggers talking about running as independents. That could be a problem.

Perriello seems like a politician with decent retail skills, and of course being an incumbent gives him institutional advantages he didn't have in '08.

Overall I'd say that while I think Perriello has a better shot at surviving than some believe, I have to agree that if '10 is nearly as good a Republican year as some expect it to be, and he manages to still hold on, the Republicans will have dropped the ball, big time.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 17:33:15 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I was just going through party loyalty scores

According to the Washington Post the most disloyal Dems are Walt Minnick with a loyalty score of just 67.9% then Bobby Bright, Gene Taylor, Travis Childers, Harry Mitchell, Heath Shuler, Frank Kratovil, Glenn Nye, Parker Griffith, Ann Kirkpatrick, Baron Hill, Scott Murphy, Joe Donnelly, Dan Boren, Jason Altmire, Brad Ellsworth, Harry Teague, Jim Marshall, Jim Cooper and then Tom Perriello at 89.2% loyal. I was quite shocked at that as I would have thought he would be much higher than 240 out of 259. So he has made some effort to make himself look independent but not so much on the big issues and that is likely to hurt.

http://projects.washingtonpost...

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 17:58:50 PM CST

[ Parent ]

based on the make-up...

...of his district we should cut him a little slack, no?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:04:59 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Absolutely no criticism intended

If anything he should be admired for doing what he thinks is right rather than making sure he gets re-elected.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:59:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That's basically it

Perriello is definitely making an effort to skew to his district and present himself as independent if not conservative, unfortunately, he's doing it when nobody is paying attention.

I think that when you have people outside your congressional office burning effigies of you because of your vote on cap-and-trade, it's pretty obvious your plan has gone wrong.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:21:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

so...

...does he pull this out? is this a race where we put up a real fight or just cross our fingers and hope for the best?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:30:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Both

Until cutting him loose becomes neccesary if and when polling shows he can't be saved while others can.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:35:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Maybe a cop-out

But I think Perriello's fortunes depend on large part on where Congressional Democrats are in 2010.

Goode won reelection in 2006 with 59%, whereas he only got 49% in 2008. The change in presidential numbers between '04 and '08 was about as dramatic, but I'm willing to bet that Perriello managed to pick up at least some of the people that voted for Goode before. Those folks will likely still have an open mind in 2010, and will be giving Perriello a fair shake.

If Dems are popular by the election next year, he will be too. If not, he'd better have excellent constituent service and some great campaigning abilities, because I don't think any amount of effort on the part of national Democrats will do him much good.

I'd just really like to see some polling done in this district. Come on, PPP!

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:32:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

lets hope so...

...i really like perriello and can see him as a major player in the party if can can make past this election cycle.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:43:03 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Bob Riley's numbers seem unusually high for a governor right now

SurveyUSA just put them at 56%-39%, a very good showing for a governor right now.  I'm curious if anyone knows why he's doing so well.  Has Alabama made it through the recession well?  Are Alabama voters just so partisan they'll approve of him?  Is he just doing his job really well?

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:20:38 PM CST

On the D side

You could ask the same about Mike Beebe.  

---

by: Bob Bobson @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:22:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I've been wondering that too actually

Nate Silver once theorized smaller states should have more popular governors.  That would explain Beebe.  But Alabama's about medium sized.        

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:49:48 PM CST

[ Parent ]

And Lynch

Baldacci not so much.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:54:16 PM CST

[ Parent ]

It's not a perfect correlation but it does explain some stuff

The insane popularity of the Dakotas governors for example (also helped by the fact that Fargo actually added jobs).  

Of medium and large sized states (which I'll classify as having 5 or more congressional districts) we know Jindal and Riley are pretty popular.  No ones polled Brad Henry in a while but in June he was doing okay.  Jay Nixon is doing okay (though how okay seems to depend on the poll) and Quinn seems to be keeping his head above the water.  I can't remember seeing recent numbers for Sonny Perdue, Phil Bredesen, Mitch Daniels, or Rick Perry.  All the other medium or big state governors have mixed or bad numbers with a few cases of awful.   So Jindal and Riley seem to be the two medium state governors who are still being received well by their states.  What's their secret?  

20, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)

Actively supporting Charlie Melancon and Cedric Richmond

---

by: Darth Jeff @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:14:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

DE-Sen

Any word on when Beau Biden might announce his intentions?  

---

by: bennytoothpick @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:27:18 PM CST

When he finds a spine?

He only hurts himself, and the party, the longer he dithers.... although the delay probably makes it more likely he will run, since he already kills his career if he does not run, but if he keeps us from fielding a great nominee because of his delaying, he becomes a disgrace.

---

by: tommypaine @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 18:30:44 PM CST

[ Parent ]

hopefully he will announce in January

I'm getting a little annoyed as well.  If the party is going to risk losing the seat just to give him a free shot at the nomination, he had better freaking take it.

---

by: bennytoothpick @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:14:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

does anybody know...

...if he REALLY wants to be a senator?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:32:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

That's

the million dollar question there. The democrats in Delaware tried to make it certain that all Beau had to do was walk into that seat January 2011. But it blew up in their face when Mike Castle announced he wanted to finish up his career in the US senate. I wouldn't be surprised if Beau takes a pass, especially now that he has to work for that seat.

18, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:39:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

the gop...

...will have a field day if they manage to take the v.p.'s old senate seat. i get sick just thinking about it.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:47:11 PM CST

[ Parent ]

On the flip

Joe will go all out to save it. Even if his son isn't the nominee. Same goes for Illinois. Obviously it means the GOP are going to focus there too but it might mean catching them off guard elsewhere. Symbolic victories are all well and good if you can get them but tough to do that on such Democratic turf. Even a slight improvement in the national environment (which I think likely) and Dem senate prospects will see huge improvement since their defense is on blue ground and the GOP's is purple.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:51:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

i agree...

with you on the national environment. i think it will improve enough to help. but we seem to have dug a couple of deep holes for ourselves. dodd and reid come to mind.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:58:47 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yeah

Those are clearly the toughest along with Arkansas. I think Dodd probably has to get out but I wouldn't discount Reid. Still, swapping those three for a combination of Hodes, Carnahan, Fisher and Conway isn't impossible.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:33:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

a three for three...

...trade is ok but losing a senate seat in a solid blue state like connecticut(full disclosure, my home state) is a real kick in the head. we got screwed in 06, i hate to see it happen again.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:39:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Can't pick and choose unfortunately

I still think Dodd will do the right thing though.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:47:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

meaning...

...he steps aside for the good of the party and remains an elder statesman in good standing?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:50:17 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Exactly

And no doubt an appointment to serve at the pleasure of the president at some point in the future.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:52:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

and...

...who fills the void he leaves behind? and remember there is also the governors race to consider as well. lamont'10?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:57:09 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Blumenthal

Anybody untainted by the appearance of scandal.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:59:35 PM CST

[ Parent ]

gov. or senate?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:01:02 PM CST

[ Parent ]

For senate

Bysiewicz and Lamont and running for governor.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:07:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

sounds good to me...

...as long as they don't bloody each other. someone has to take on lieberman in 2012. conn dems should be getting their ducks in a row now.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:16:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Blumenthal like being AG

The problem with Blumenthal is that he actually likes being Attorney General. He had many chances over his career to move up and run for higher office. Each time he turned it down to stay AG because he actually likes being AG. To him it is his dream job. So it might be hard to get him to leave a job he likes so much to run for Senate.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 08:28:47 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Jeez

Might be a long wait. Latest filing in the country. End of July.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:38:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

waiting...

...only helps the gop. mike castle seems like a fairly reasonable repub. it's a risky strategy to give him this much time.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:43:46 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Just the thing with Castle

He isn't as liberal as people think. If it comes to it I think even Coons can beat him by hammering away on his voting record. But obviously if Beau is out the sooner the better he says so for fundraising if nothing else.

---

by: conspiracy @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:46:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

isn't that the case...

...with most, if not all the "reasonable" republicans? a closer look at their records reveals they are not what people think they are. mark kirk anyone?

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 19:51:24 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I can't think of the last GOPer I would have voted for

Did we always put up liberal Dems against John Heinz in Pennsylvania?  If not, it would have been the Weicker-Lieberman race.

29, male, Democratic, CO-01

---

by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:10:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

lowell weicker...

...was the last republican i voted for. even though he lost to joe lieberman i feel it was one of my best votes!

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:14:32 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Lowell Weicker, Lincoln Chafee

I would of voted for those guys. Too bad that wing of the GOP is gone and now replaced by escapees from the asylum.  

18, Male, Independent, CA-12

---

by: ehstronghold @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:22:06 PM CST

[ Parent ]

chafee's father...

...was a pretty good guy too.

---

by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 20:31:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I would have voted for Chafee in 2000

In 2006 though, it was probably important that Democrats controlled the Senate. Chafee himself admitted as much. I was 16 at the time but my parents voted for Whitehouse and I would have too.

(Full disclosure: I interned for Whitehouse two summers ago, and I live very close to him.)

20, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)

---

by: sapelcovits @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 12:27:12 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I would've voted for Whitehouse

because I liked Whitehouse, but I think Chafee would've changed parties or went Indy in 2006 had he won reelection.  

---

by: DTOzone @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 21:29:37 PM CST

[ Parent ]

What makes you think that?

I think he would have been under pressure to stay with the GOP as long as he was in the Senate. Once he lost he was basically cut loose to do his own thing.

20, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)

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by: sapelcovits @ Tue Dec 22, 2009 at 00:19:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

In retrospect, it probably was.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:57:00 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Even at the time

it was clear to people following that race that the liberal thing to do was vote for Weicker.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 23:58:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Soon

 In the primary, he is going to go to the right and be more conservative than people think. In the general election, he should try to be MORE Liberal than people think.

About Beau, the Bidens are pretty popular and even though Michael Castle has a long history with the state, I think Beau would barely come through in the end.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....

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by: Alibguy @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 18:18:36 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Jeez give him a litttle time

      He got back from Iraq only two months ago after being there for nearly a year. Maybe he just wants to spend a little time with his family before he throws himself into a hard fought campaign. Besides which he's already very well known in Delaware and raising money won't be a problem. You can bet that daddy (the VP) and his boss will take care of that.

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by: Democrat2010 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 23:35:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

good night to all!

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by: boca-ron5126 @ Sat Dec 19, 2009 at 21:56:48 PM CST

How we can beat Michael Castle

Here are the exit polls from 2008 with Castle vs. Hartley-Nagle

Total             Hartley-Nagle Castle  
Democrat    (48%)        62%     38%      
Republican  (31%)        10%     90%      
Independent (20%)        36%     64%

Basically, all a dem would need to have done in order to unseat Castle in 2008 would have been getting 82%+ of democrats will leting the other numbers hold the same. Had the DCCC recruited John Carney or Jack Markel in 2006 or 2008, Michael Castle would be retired living on the beaches of Florida like his wife wanted. With Carper's landslide 70% win in 2006 and Obama and Biden's coatails in 2008, it is really questionable why the DCCC did not recruit a top tier candidate to take out Castle.

In 2010, If Beau Biden runs, he is like to get at least 90% of dems and 43% of indies leaving me to conclude that the final results on election will look like:
55% Biden
45% Castle

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by: jmartin4s @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 00:00:44 AM CST

Come on!

Bush got 45.75% of the vote in 2004 in DE. Are you saying the very popular Castle who got 38% of the Democrat vote will only do as well statewide vs Biden in what might be a GOP year as Bush did in 2004?

That's just not realistic.

Castle is way more popular in DE then Bush ever was.

DE is a small state and he has developed relationships with many Dem voters there who are willing to cross party lines and vote for him. So him only getting 18% of Dem vote is just not going to happen.

I would be interested to see Obama's approval numbers in DE. A Biden campaign might in many ways be a vote proxy for Obama. So his numbers in the state will be very important to Beau. If Obama has very high approval ratings I think Beau has a shot at it. If Obama is at or under 50% no way.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

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by: izengabe @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 08:41:12 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Come on!

Bush got 45.75% of the vote in 2004 in DE. Are you saying the very popular Castle who got 38% of the Democrat vote will only do as well statewide vs Biden in what might be a GOP year as Bush did in 2004?

That's just not realistic.

Castle is way more popular in DE then Bush ever was.

DE is a small state and he has developed relationships with many Dem voters there who are willing to cross party lines and vote for him. So him only getting 18% of Dem vote is just not going to happen.

I would be interested to see Obama's approval numbers in DE. A Biden campaign might in many ways be a vote proxy for Obama. So his numbers in the state will be very important to Beau. If Obama has very high approval ratings I think Beau has a shot at it. If Obama is at or under 50% no way.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

---

by: izengabe @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 08:41:14 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Nye loses a challenger

From CQ Politics:

One of the seven Republicans challenging freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.) is dropping out of the race and backing Scott Rigell, an automotive executive who is a leading candidate for the 2nd district seat.

Chuck Smith, a lawyer and former Marine, said in a statement Friday that he was ending his campaign and backing Rigell. whom he said was a "successful entrepreneur" who has "turned around a business, started new businesses, created good jobs, and balanced a budget."

Apparently, Smith had been fundraising poorly, so his withdrawal wouldn't seem to have any negative effect on the Republicans' chances to defeat Nye.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 00:44:44 AM CST

CT-SEN: Team Red loses a vote because Glenn Beck is moving

"eerily successful, pasty faced right wing crybaby Glenn Beck has listed his family manse in New Canaan, CT with an asking price of $3,999,000."

http://realestalker.blogspot.c...

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by: tommypaine @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 02:31:40 AM CST

It's so great that he represents "regular" America

you know, with a $4 million house!

Oh tea-baggers, your movement against the elite only creates more of them....

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by: Andrew @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 10:59:58 AM CST

[ Parent ]

NY-Sen B

Daily News says "no evidence" that Rudy will run against Gillibrand.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sun Dec 20, 2009 at 19:59:37 PM CST

Rudy

has a gig with the Rio Olympics already if I'm correct. If I hear "9/11" one more time out of his mouth cracks whip.

18, Male, Independent, CA-12

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by: ehstronghold @ Mon Dec 21, 2009 at 02:17:03 AM CST

[ Parent ]