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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Dec 18, 2009 at 9:57 PM EST


First, please follow our new-and-improved Twitter feed. Rather than have our RSS feed automatically pump out each post, we now lovingly handcraft our tweets from the finest artisanal electrons. So follow SSP today.

Second, if you haven't already seen it, check out our awesome redistricting contest. There's babka in it for the winner (natch). UPDATE: Check it out - we have our first entry, from MattTX2. Nice work!

And finally, check out Carly Fiorina addressing her supporters in Bakersfield, Calif.:

Carlyfornia dreaming indeed.
DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 167 comments
IA-Gov
Terry Branstad has a lot of chutzpah. I wonder how long he can keep getting away with criticizing Culver for stuff he did while he was governor.
Caption Proposal
Carly Fiorina demonstrates the amazing ability to advocate for tractors' rights without noticing a mathematical pun.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
Caption
John Deere "reps" show up at an empty rally to rub in their superiority because nothing Carly runs runs like a Deere.
[ Parent ]
A Political Picture Worth 1000 Words
We should have a roundup of these. Exasperated Dede Scozzafava surrounded by Hoffman sign-holders would be another good one.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
IA-03: 5 GOP candidates now
They had trouble recruiting anyone in 2008, and I don't remember contested GOP primaries in 2002, 2004 or 2006. Now five Republicans are taking on Boswell.

Most of the GOP establishment are behind either Jim Gibbons or Brad Zaun, who are going to have the most money unless one of the lesser-known Repubs can self-fund (I have no idea).

CA-Sen: Is she really speaking to nobody?
 
  Between Carlyfornia and Chuck "Q: Is he not man? A: He is DEVOre", the Senate race is looking weirder and weirder. That's OK with me; it just makes it more likely that Boxer has an easier re-election. Supposedly Tom Campbell is considering switching from CA-Gov to the Senate race which might add some sanity and gravitas to the GOP field, but it is still looking real good for Babs.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
Can anybody tell me
why Charlie Cook has this race rated as Lean D?  I have seen no indication whatsoever that the Republicans have any chance of winning.  I put it as Solid D for sure.  Does anybody out in CA have an opinion on this?

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
[ Parent ]
Maybe slightly short of safe
   but at least a strong "Likely D". Yeah I am in CA; the SFV in my name is the San Fernando Valley part of the city of L.A.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Yeah, "Likely D" sounds about right
Carly Fiorina's not a great candidate by any stretch (although Chuck DeVore's probably even worse), but I don't think Barbara Boxer's approval is quite strong enough to declare her a 100% guaranteed winner. Odds are, Boxer has about a 55% floor for this race, but 43% approval in an anti-incumbent year would make me a little nervous.

Plus, I seem to be in the minority who thinks Meg Whitman actually has a shot at beating Jerry Brown, and if I'm correct there, it would obviously help the GOP down the ballot.

BTW...is that photo for real? Forget the emptiness around her; I don't understand why the cameras are stationed so far away. It's a downright bizarre shot.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
The CDP is terrible.
Incredibly terrible. Don't take state offices for granted in California.  
[ Parent ]
Cook is way off IMO
A few of his Senate ratings seem off at the moment.  I can see MAYBE calling California Likely D, but it's more like Safe D for now.  I can't see any circumstance Boxer loses.
[ Parent ]
Cook rating
You might want to take a look at Boxer's job approval, fav/unfavs and re-elect numbers for a clue why the Cook Political Report rates her races as just Lean Democrat (all weak).  Plus she had just $6 million in the bank (not much in California) and against a wealthy opponent.

Charlie Cook

[ Parent ]
Sounds like your rating is based on generic numbers
I note you didn't list the head-to-head polls that have been done.  
[ Parent ]
No
It's not. I'm sure Jennifer Duffy looks at things just as holistically as anyone else. I think Charlie is arguing that Boxer's personal numbers, as opposed to or even in spite of the head-to-heads, form the basis of this opinion. I disagree with that "weighting" so to speak, but the folks at Cook undoubtedly consider everything.
[ Parent ]
I don't think you contradicted me
in substance....

though it's appropriate for someone in your position to talk up the merits of someone as respected as Cook. (It's appropriate for you to say "of course they consider everything.")

[ Parent ]
Sorry
I read your comment as "based solely on generic numbers" (as if to the exclusion of all else), rather than something like "based primarily on generic numbers," or what have you. My mistake.
[ Parent ]
I see the argument, Charlie
But you are the outlier on this one. CQ, Rothenberg, and Sabato all have this one as Safe D. SSP rates it as a "Race to Watch" - that is, a race with potential to graduate to a more competitive status, as opposed to something like SD-Sen.

All the non-Rasmussen polls have had her up fairly big against Fiorina, and even the last couple of Rasmussens have shown a sizable advantage compared to that one Boxer+4 poll they ran. Her job approvals aren't awesome, but only SUSA shows her underwater. Same with her favorables, which aren't too bad according to the Pollster averages.

I could see Likely D for this race. But I think Fiorina has far more to prove before Lean D is a possibility, even given the tough background environment for Dems.

[ Parent ]
Good to get perspective
From the source itself.  I guess going mostly by personal approval/dissaproval this early in the game isn't a bad idea.  Still the polling has been mostly positive.  

I think we can all agree that if somehow, Barbara Boxer goes down, it will mean that the sky is falling for the Democrats, to the point where the Senate could be lost.  You have to figure that Connecticut, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Illinois, Colorado, & Nevada are ALL more likely to flip in California.  Heck, I'd say Wisconsin and Indiana are more likely to turn than California is.  California's just way too liberal to throw out a non-scandalized incumbent.  The only reason the Repubs have any chance in liberal bastions like Connecticut, Delaware, or Illinois is because those seats are open/Chris Dodd is ruined by scandal.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Take it from someone who lives in the state
Boxer is going to have her seat for years to come. Fiorina has HP hanging over her head, and if Boxer is cornered, she'll come out with all guns blazing. In 1998, Boxer managed to win after almost everyone wrote her off as dead. Read this article below:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
The only way I could see that Leans ranking
Is if Ex. Rep. Campbell jumps into the Senate race (he's arguably a stronger candidate than either Fiorina or DeVore).

Until that happens, I don't think calling it anything short of Likely is being a little bit too much.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Lean D is lean delusional
Her numbers have always been like this.  She is just not loveable, but it is just a totally irrational disconnect to think that means "lean D".

Cook's illogic concludes that if Boxer was 48/46 approvals, and generic Republican was 6/80, that would still be a "lean D".

Boxer's situation is simple to summarize, she can beat almost any Republican easily, but many voters would prefer a different Democrat to her.

[ Parent ]
Hahaha
Good work on DeVore's name.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Glad you liked it!
  Something about the de-evolution of the CA Greedy Old Party inspired me to change the capitalizations in DeVore's name.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
OK, I've gotta ask
What's the deal with Carly's hair (or lack thereof)?
Dealing with cancer
These past few months were tough for her, including her step daughter's death.

Other than that, she's done for in a general election.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

[ Parent ]
Didn't know that
Well the woman has courage.  I'll give her that.
[ Parent ]
Agreed.
Whatever you think of her politics your heart has to go out to someone who is fighting cancer.

It says something about Carly that even while fighting cance she still willing to get involved in the political process.

While we might disagree we can still respect her for it.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
I'm sorry to hear that
I wish her a speedy recovery--and then a crushing defeat by Boxer.
[ Parent ]
I almost feel sorry for Fiorina myself.
That has me wondering how much of a sympathy vote there will be if Fiorina is in the general. (That makes me hope DeVore wins the primary.)

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Why not feel for her?
Having fellow feeling for a cancer survivor goes beyond politics. I'm sure you'll agree with me that we should never dehumanize our opponents. Senator Kennedy never did.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yes I do. I didn't mean to put the "almost" in there.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I meant to say
that I almost would vote for her. Of course I sincerely wish her a speedy recovery. Better be careful when commenting at 2 AM.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I get it
I still wouldn't almost vote for someone, on the basis of her health. A cancer survivor with bad politics still has bad politics. But I knew you didn't mean that you were less than fully sympathetic to her as a person.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Taegan Goddard on the Jim Bohannon Show
said he doesn't see how Harry Reid can win reelection, for whatever it's worth. Link if you want to listen.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
I don't either
After finding out Sue Lowden's worth over $50 million and is probably very willing to spend it.  
[ Parent ]
I know a lot of people are going to be angered by this statement but I'm actually kind of hoping Harry Reid will loose
We have been waiting for months for healthcare reform to pass but because Harry Reid is refusing to use the nuclear option or reconcilliation, we won't get any. Seriously, Harry Reid is letting Joe Leiberman physically kill any chance of a public option or buy in because he is a weak spineless majority leader. It is no wonder Nevada has turned sour on Harry Reid and it is justifiable, he is just a plain awful majority leader who is running the democrats into the ground rather than pushing through a progressive agenda. I am in Washington DC for a couple of days and decided to go visit the senate and watch the healthcare debate. On my way out, I stoped by Senator Kerry, Kirk, and Reid's office and to request that they use reconciliation to pass healthcare reform rather than let Joe Lieberman kill it (even though it made no difference). While the interns in Senator Kirk and Kerry office where warm and nice, I got a very cold and nasty responce from those in Harry Reid's which really turned me off.

If I were a Nevada voter, after all this frustration I probably would not even bother voting in the senate race because Harry Reid's leadership has been so awful. This is explain why Reid's approvals have been so low and why he has been trailing nobody opponents in the polls by as much as double digits. If we want to save the seat have Shelly Berkley primary Harry. Its time to throw Harry Reid out and get a pitbull like Chuck Schumer as majority leader. Simply put, Harry Reid's performance this year has been horrendous and it is perfectly understandible why Nevada voters are furious!

[ Parent ]
I would bother voting in Nevada
and I would vote for the Republican.  Harry Reid needs to be removed from the Senate, he is probably the worst majority leader in history.  
[ Parent ]
He's a great majority leader
For us. He is HORRIBLE for ya'll. Sometimes, you actually have to question who he is working for. As a Majority Leader and candidate....
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Bill Frist would of never let these shenanigans ever happened. If he had 60 Republican senators he would of relegated the Democrats to an insignificant minority. One thing I admire the GOP of over is they are good when it comes to guerrilla warfare in the senate.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Schumer
Worries me as a majority leader. He'd be horrible for us.  
[ Parent ]
I hope he will be in 2011
but I have a sense that Reid will use a nasty smear campaign to somehow get himself reelected.  Reid has no personal respect for Lowden on Tarkanian liek he did for Ensign (which is why he didn't smear him in 1998 and why he made sure than no strong Democrat would run against Ensign in 2000 or 2006)
But yes, Harry Reid is one Democrat I hope is not back in 2011.
[ Parent ]
Frist would have tried
but he wasn't that effective either.  Even Trent Lott was more effective.

On the other hand, Mitch McConnell is a nasty guy, and would have done what you said.  

[ Parent ]
Let's move on
From this topic.
[ Parent ]
is Reid Majority Leader or a Sen trying to get re-elected
I think Reid is showing the problems that go with electing a Senator from a swingstate to be Majority Leader.

Sen Reid is not stupid. He saw what happened to his pedicessor Sen Daschle and doesnt what that to happend to him.

A Majority Leaders #1 priority needs to be helping is caucus. Sadly Reid's #1 priority is getting re-elected. And seems to be putting his re-election ahead of what's right for Democrats or the country.

That is why Reid is failing as Majority Leader. Next time Dems need to pick a Majority Leader from a safe Dem state and NOT a GOP leaning swingstate.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
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[ Parent ]
lol
So true.  Even republicans know Reid is a joke.
[ Parent ]
You see, this troubles me
this would be a vote of spite, a waste of a vote. You're voting for someone you disagree with against someone you mostly agree with because you are not happy with his role as Majority Leader.

Wouldn't this time better be spent primarying the guy?  

[ Parent ]
Easier said than done
when Reid practically controls the NDP and has millions in his warchest to boot.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Sure
but if the level of dissatisfcation is THAT high, shouldn't it therefore make it easier.

Basically this sounds like "I can't make him lose, I can't make other Nevada Democrats voted against him, so I'm just going to throw the whole thing to the crazies"

Sounds like bitter suicide to me.  

[ Parent ]
Never underestimate
Democrats' ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
i'm more angry about the confusion of loose and lose
sorry, it's just my biggest internet pet peeve.  if i thought it was a typo i'd be fine, but it never seems to be.  LOSE= he will lose the game.  the candidate will not win, thus he will lose.  loose=the shirt is loose and baggy.  turn the jar lid until it comes loose.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Yes!!! Thank You.
  That has been bothering me lately as well. Seems like it is becoming more common, too.  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Shelly Berkley...
...will not run against Harry Reid in 2010.

Shelly Berkley will run against John Ensign in 2012. And she will win.

She knows this.

It's why I'm less worried about Reid losing in 2010 - I'm highly confident that the medium-term chess game for Democrats in Nevada looks quite good indeed. The worst case scenario is that we may have to put up with two R's until 2010, but we'll almost certainly have Berkley in 2012, and we would have an excellent chance of picking off Lowden (or whomever) in 2016.

[ Parent ]
I'm not angered
I agree with you.  If we have only a few Senate losses offset by pickups in states like OH, NH and MO I'd love for Reid to be one of our losses.  In fact I'd be thrilled if he were our only loss.  
[ Parent ]
I'd like to see Reid be the only loss too
I'm undecided about Lincoln, on one hand her record this term is so bad that she ought to go, OTOH, without having to face reelection until 2016, she might behave in a more conciliatory fashion.
[ Parent ]
Lincoln should go
Ideally to a D primary challenger, but if not then I'm ok with her losing to an R. Debbie Stabenow would then take over the Ag Committee before the next farm bill is drafted.
[ Parent ]
Swap Reid and Lincoln
For Carnahan and Hodes. Works for me.
[ Parent ]
Only parts of the bill that impinge on the budget can be passed by reconciliation
and it's not at all clear there's even a simple majority for that now. Here's Nate Silver's take on reconciliation:

If your lone objective were to end up with something that you could call a public option, then yes -- reconciliation offers some possibility of that. But I don't see how you're likely, on balance, to wind up with a better bill -- losing the guaranteed issue provision alone would probably outweigh the inclusion of a public option.

There's also the idea, which Jon has advanced, of using the reconciliation process for some parts of the bill but not for others. It's a creative idea, but I don't see how it works, since it's not like you can keep this a secret from people. If you plan to pass certain provisions under reconciliation so as to circumvent Ben Nelson, it seems to me nearly certain that Ben Nelson would counter-circumvent you by filibustering the parts of the bill that you attempted to pass under regular order. So you'd still end up with half a loaf -- although maybe a different half than you might have otherwise.

Now, I certainly do think the Democrats would have some chance of passing portions of the bill under reconciliation in 2011; in that case you wouldn't have this transparent bait-and-switch with the moderates and could claim that you'd received a new mandate from the public.

He's said elsewhere that he can count less than 50 senators who'd be very likely to vote for even a weak public option under reconciliation now. But perhaps that might change when the plan is closer to actually starting.

I also consider Reid a weak leader, but as others have pointed out here, unlike previous Democratic Majority Leaders, he can't depend on any Republican support of anything, so each Senator in his caucus really has him by the balls, not vice versa. I do think Schumer would be stronger, but I'm not sure he could successfully push someone like Lieberman to act in what would seem like a politically sensible way for a Senator from Connecticut - or Nelson of NE and Southern senators like Landrieu and Lincoln to vote in ways that might be tough to sell to their constituents.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
You could pass quite a bit using reconciliation
Public option, allowing more people to join Medicare/Medicaid, subsidies, and a solid tax on the wealthy to pay for all of this.  

The threat of reconciliation/nuclear option might get Lieberman, and the others to vote for cloture.  Without that threat there, these worthless corporate hacks can behave as the terrorists that they are and can keep the American people held hostage using blackmail.

[ Parent ]
More or less

[ Parent ]
Sheesh
Seriously? The healthcare bill? Reconciliation? Filibuster? These are not SSP topics. If you want to talk about why Harry Reid's stewardship of the Democratic caucus may or may not impact his electoral prospects, that is more than fine.

But debating the finer points of reconciliation? Absolutely not.

[ Parent ]
LOL
Read the Rasmussen Missouri poll diary. Seriously people, I come here to get away from all this HCR stuff.
[ Parent ]
Sigh
Been a busy week for me - hadn't read that thread. Well, I can tell you that there will be bannings as a result of that one. I've warned everyone so many times - everyone has had more than fair notice.
[ Parent ]
Sigh
Now I feel awful. It is such an immotive issue I can understand it. Please don't do that.
[ Parent ]
Don't blame yourself
I would have read it at some point this weekend. I know it's an emotional issue, which is why I have warned people 10,000 times to stay away from it.

I've seen a lot of sites turn into toxic waste pits because they became havens for axe-grinders. SSP has been going strong for six years, with one of the best comments sections around, precisely because we've worked hard to stay focused on bloodless horserace analysis. I'm not going to start going soft because people can't keep their emotions in check.

I don't want this site to become the next victim of the primary wars or the healthcare wars or the legislation wars or what-have-you. Over the years, people have repeatedly said, both on this site and to my face in person, that they really appreciate that SSP is a haven from all those endless battles. I plan on keeping things that way.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps you can put your vision in a "Readme" about the site
It's the first time I've seen (or at least the first time I remember seeing):

SSP has been going strong for six years, with one of the best comments sections around, precisely because we've worked hard to stay focused on bloodless horserace analysis.

I get distracted at times as well. But I enjoy analyzing political horseraces.

It would be helpful to have something like what you said here as say a 'mission statement' or some such clickable from the menu screen - including the following:

I've seen a lot of sites turn into toxic waste pits because they became havens for axe-grinders

Including the following as a guide / caution to users on why one might get banned:

I don't want this site to become the next victim of the primary wars or the healthcare wars or the legislation wars or what-have-you. Over the years, people have repeatedly said, both on this site and to my face in person, that they really appreciate that SSP is a haven from all those endless battles. I plan on keeping things that way.

[ Parent ]
Sure, I'll do that
But no one involved in that massive derail was a new commenter, and hadn't seen the admins (or fellow users) warn against such conversations, and the several meta diaries I've done on this as well. Point being, everyone in that thread was very familiar with SSP and had been on notice for a long time.
[ Parent ]
Fair enough
I just hope people come back.
[ Parent ]
This site had been great for quite some time
but then I think Obama won and that adds a whole other dimension to debating politics as we can finally debate policy because we can all agree just about everything from Bush was crap.  I think we've added a dimension to debate and it's really easy to slide from what's appropriate here to merely debating policy and Blue Dogs vs Liberals.

[ Parent ]
I know
I tried to back out several times and was always civil, but it gets passions really stirred and I found myself not really capable of staying away.  We won't go back there...lock the topic if you want, David, but there was and is so much frustration and not a real good blog in which to express it among rational people...so please try not to ban us.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
HCR?
Just curious, what does "HCR" stand for?

Also, let me add my support to David's comments.  SSP is the only political blog I continue to read regularly, because it's the only one that had consistently intelligent discussion and stay away from all the flame throwing that is so common on other sites.  I've pretty much given up on MyDD after really enjoying it for a long time.  Others, too, get only occasional glances hoping to find something of value.  But SSP remains a daily treat.

[ Parent ]
Health Care Reform


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Sorry, David
I've really been avoiding commenting on all this kind of discussion, for the most part, and have definitely been avoiding any kind of invective. I put that post up as information but recognize that you are right about it being off-topic here.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
This Is Why I'm Not Interested in This Race
I think it's lunacy to pull for replacing someone who is trying (effectively or not) to get Democratic legislation passed with another automatic vote for Mitch McConnell's obstructionism. That said, sure he's been disappointing - though I also think people greatly overstate the degree to which he can reliably hold 60 votes through acting like the LBJ of legend (which is somewhat different than the actual LBJ). So given my lack of enthusiasm, I really can't say I want to read anything about this race. I'd much rather see stories on Kentucky, New Hampshire and Missouri. But since Reid is Reid I suppose much of the ink on the 2010 campaign will be focused on Nevada.
[ Parent ]
Blue Dog Defense : Tennesee's 6th
Now that we won't have a Gordon to defend this R+13 district, it will be a quite hard seat to hold.

What is our Dem bench in Al Gore's old seat looking like?


Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

Some discussion here
http://swingstateproject.com/d...

updates appreciated. The Mayor of Murfesboro, as I remember, seemed promising.

[ Parent ]
Along with LA-3
this is one seat that you can say hello to your teabagging wingnut Congressperson in 2011.  

And I think that is fair, given that the people of this district likely want this kind of person to represent them.

[ Parent ]
I would rather not waste resources
trying to defend an R+13 open seat in the south next year.

We have better seats to target.

Which is not to say we shouldn't try to recruit a good candidate, but let's not have illusions.

[ Parent ]
The Snowpocalypse Descends.
   The 2 feet+ of snow predicted to fall in DC will give me oodles of time to win that babka.  Mother nature and, dare I say, Republican Jesus, are on my side.

24, Male, GA-05
I've got two draft maps already
and I'm happy with neither. Upstate is particularly frustrating.  
[ Parent ]
Especially as all the reps live in awkward places
If Slaughter lived west of Rochester, if Massa didn't live so far from Buffalo or Rochester, or if Maffei and Arcuri lived further west you'd be able to take out Lee easily and still have decent maps.

As it is, my current drafts either have to leave a Republican sink there or create enormous fajita strips.

On an entirely unrelated note, what's with all the Roman township names in Onondaga and environs? They all seem to be ripped straight from the pages of Livy.

[ Parent ]
It's a good question
I'm from Pennsylvania, so I don't know the history.

As to the districts in W. NY, I'm probably pairing Massa and Hinchey. One Democrat clearly has to go upstate.  

[ Parent ]
Wikipedia reports
that the names were chosen by a classics-obsessed government clerk. FWIW.  
[ Parent ]
Speaking of Wikipedia
I believe (though Jeff can correct me if I'm wrong) that that's where our information about where the Reps live is from. It's possible that some of that information is wrong or out-of-date. For instance, Wikipedia only said that Velazquez lives in "Brooklyn" (helpful!), but I dug up some old NYT articles that say she lives in Williamsburg. Don't know if she still does, but I could not confirm one way or the other.
[ Parent ]
Let alone where in Williamsburg
In any case, for the directionally challenged among us (i.e. me), even isolating the general location can take a good bit of glance back and forth between maps.  
[ Parent ]
Looked up where she lives
 She is basically right next to the Williamsburg bridge.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
How did you look this up? (eom)

[ Parent ]
I was thinking about the voter registration database
But as it turns out, she's in the White Pages. (DOH!)
[ Parent ]
Yeah but
How do you know it's the right Nydia Velazquez?
[ Parent ]
whitepages.com
says it is. Who knows if they're right, though.  
[ Parent ]
Same with many of the L.A. reps.
That added to the challenge I gave myself of making districts that had all the reps' homes in their districts. Wiki lists Brad Sherman, Howard Berman, Henry Waxman, Xavier Becerra, Diane Watson, Lucille Roybal-Allard, Maxine Waters, and Jane Harman as all residing in L.A. They only specify where three of the reps live: Sherman in Sherman Oaks, Waters in Hancock Park (6 miles west of downtown), and Harman in Venice.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Howard Berman lives in Valley Village
  which is the southern part of North Hollywood (91607) adjacent to Studio City. He used to live in Panorama City (north Van Nuys). Like anyone else Congresscritters can move if necessary to keep their jobs...

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
MN SEN District 26 special
Update.

I posted about this race last week when the seat just opened up. This week he dates for the election have been set and the field is starting to form.

Candidate Filing Period:             December 23, 2009 to December 29, 2009  
Special Primary (if necessary):    January 12, 2010
Special Election: January 26, 2010

So far 5 Republicans and 1 Independence party candidate have declared.

http://www.owatonna.com/news.p...

No Democrats have declared so far but someone is expected to early next week (Rumor is it is District 26A state Rep Kory Kath who would be a very strong candidate).

This election will be a 3 way affair as the Independence Party has a legitimate candidate in Waseca mayor Roy Srp. The IP historicly does very well in this are of the state(Dean Barkly got over 20%)

To me the Republican field looks weak. The biggest Republican name is Owatonna mayor Tom Kuntz, who last year lost to Kath 57-43 in the state house race. The Reps will hold a convention Dec 28 to narrow the field.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan

Avatar
Just saw it, great movie.  Go see it.  Not often you get a big budget movie with heart and meaning these days.  And ya, it's also good that the right-wingers hate this movie.  :)
We do?
I don't even know what its about. I keep seeing commercials for it. It doesn't look good. Doesn't look like my kinda movie. Anyway, why do we hate it?  
[ Parent ]
You hate it...
Because it advocates caring about people instead of money for corporations.  
[ Parent ]
Oy
This is just not a good conversation, so, no. Fin.
[ Parent ]
CA-44
I sent $25 out of my own pocket to Bill Hedrick to this district (I live here), while I was in SF for College.  I was pleasantly surprised when I came down here I had a hand written Thank You card from the Campaign Manager thanking me for my donation.

I'm not sure if this is common or not, because I had never donated money to a candidate, but It really makes me want Bill Hedrick to win this district even more than before.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

i know how you feel
i sent a few bucks to eric massa last year and got a routine form letter back with a personal thank you on the bottom clearly written by massa. i was pleasantly surprised that he took the time to thank me himself. i'm sure i am not the only one who got this kind of response.
[ Parent ]
I wish more reps would give those kinds of responses.


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
it could'nt hurt!!

[ Parent ]
IN-9th
Baron Hill will run for reelection
http://www.courier-journal.com...


GOOD!
Geez, never had figured out why he was even thinking about retiring. Man, this is a relief.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
Good
One of the most baseless and annoying retirement rumors goes down.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Where is Mike Sodrel?
Indiana 9th districts won't be the same without him running a 5th consecutive time.
[ Parent ]
I think
I read somewhere that he was busy writing a book or something.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I'll add to the chorus of "Thank Goodness"s
Sure, Baron Hill is a blue dog who drivs progressives crazy from time to time -- but not only is he the best we can probably get in SE Indiana, he's an excellent congressman who honestly does try to best represent his district.  Having met him on several occasions, I can also say he's a super-nice guy who is as close to an "Average person who just happens to be a Congressman" as you'll ever find.

As I (and others) have said before, I think here's how things are going to play out in Indiana over the next couple of cycles: Hill and Brad Ellsworth will most likely be re-elected to their house seats (as probably will the entire Indiana delegation) next fall.  Then the Republicans will control redistricting.  Knowing they can't beat Ellsworth in his Evansville-based district, if they're smart they will make IN-08 more Democratic, mainly by moving Bloomington back from IN-09 to IN-08 (which is where it historically has been forever until the Dems moved it in 2000).  This will pretty much screw over Hill or any Democrat there.  

This all will lead Baron Hill to run for governor in 2012, and while I doubt he'll have the field to himself, he'd most likely be the early frontrunner.  If Senator Lugar retires (and I have absolutely no idea if he will), that would open up a Senate seat, and I wouldn't be suprised if Ellsworth went for that.  Hill for Gov/Ellsworth for Senate would be a very, very solid 1-2 punch for our side here in 2012.  The only drawback is they are both from the southern part of the state -- for months, they would have to spend about half of their time in Indianapolis and the other half in northern Indiana.  One upside is that if redistricting plays out as I've speculated, and Ellsworth does run for senate, a Evansville-Terre Haute-Bloomington house seat can be held by a typical Democrat, and we'd have a ton of good people to run in that district.

OK, I'm done getting ahead of myself!

[ Parent ]
One variable you missed
Donnelly. The Republicans could very well make his district much more . . . "uncomfortable" and he may be looking for an out in 2012 as well. I think the more likely outcome would be Donnelly and Hill running statewide while Ellsworth enjoys his new, safer seat which may be more liberal than he is.

Personally, of the three U.S. Reps, I would like Hill in the Senate the most of them. He impresses me as a Kay Hagan/Bill Nelson/Claire McCaskall type Senator. I can get behind that.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Agreed that Joe Donnelly ...
... also might get rogered in redistricting.  I was playing around with the redistricting tool, and you can create a sliver-thin district from Gary/Hammond/East Chicago, through Michigan City and take in all of South Bend, and be right at the correct population.  Cede that to us, and have Donnelly either run there against Pete Visclosky or someone else (and probably lose), or run in a new IN-02 which would take in the rural areas south of there, and like any D, definately lose.

If this all comes to pass something like we're talking about, I think Ellsworth's seat definately would be a bit more liberal than he is (although far from a "progressive" seat -- Bloomington would be the only liberal area in it).

Again, all of this is just parlor game speculation until we see what the map looks like, and what Senator Lugar does.  Another thing that could upset the apple cart is that Secretary of State Todd Rokita (a fairly conservative Republican, but of the relatively sane variety -- he's not done a terrible job) is pushing to create a more non-partisan redistricting committee to handle all of this here.  I haven't heard that much about it, so I'm skeptical if it will go anywhere, but he's thrown it on the table.

[ Parent ]
It doesn't even have to be "sliver-thin"
You can make the modified district about as thick as half of Lake County, which really doesn't look horrible.
[ Parent ]
tom perriello
i thought this week i would turn my "sockpuppet like maniacal focus" on tom perriello. he appears to be one of the biggest targets of the nrcc. any thoughts out there as to his chances of surviving 2010?
Perriello is interesting
Most folks on here, I think, would tell you that he's more or less doomed in 2010.

Historically, first term incumbents that were 'surprise winners' don't last long. Perriello won because of several factors coming together (Obama's turnout wave, Warner being on the ballot, and Goode's weakness, for example) and none of those will be present in 2010. Besides that, he's frankly done himself no favors with his voting record, tending to be a 'yea' on the big votes when freshmen from safer districts aren't.

Robert Hurt sounds like a strong candidate, but I doubt he'll energize the Republican base, which is probably why there's already teabaggers talking about running as independents. That could be a problem.

Perriello seems like a politician with decent retail skills, and of course being an incumbent gives him institutional advantages he didn't have in '08.

Overall I'd say that while I think Perriello has a better shot at surviving than some believe, I have to agree that if '10 is nearly as good a Republican year as some expect it to be, and he manages to still hold on, the Republicans will have dropped the ball, big time.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I was just going through party loyalty scores
According to the Washington Post the most disloyal Dems are Walt Minnick with a loyalty score of just 67.9% then Bobby Bright, Gene Taylor, Travis Childers, Harry Mitchell, Heath Shuler, Frank Kratovil, Glenn Nye, Parker Griffith, Ann Kirkpatrick, Baron Hill, Scott Murphy, Joe Donnelly, Dan Boren, Jason Altmire, Brad Ellsworth, Harry Teague, Jim Marshall, Jim Cooper and then Tom Perriello at 89.2% loyal. I was quite shocked at that as I would have thought he would be much higher than 240 out of 259. So he has made some effort to make himself look independent but not so much on the big issues and that is likely to hurt.

http://projects.washingtonpost...

[ Parent ]
based on the make-up...
...of his district we should cut him a little slack, no?
[ Parent ]
Absolutely no criticism intended
If anything he should be admired for doing what he thinks is right rather than making sure he gets re-elected.
[ Parent ]
That's basically it
Perriello is definitely making an effort to skew to his district and present himself as independent if not conservative, unfortunately, he's doing it when nobody is paying attention.

I think that when you have people outside your congressional office burning effigies of you because of your vote on cap-and-trade, it's pretty obvious your plan has gone wrong.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
so...
...does he pull this out? is this a race where we put up a real fight or just cross our fingers and hope for the best?
[ Parent ]
Both
Until cutting him loose becomes neccesary if and when polling shows he can't be saved while others can.
[ Parent ]
Maybe a cop-out
But I think Perriello's fortunes depend on large part on where Congressional Democrats are in 2010.

Goode won reelection in 2006 with 59%, whereas he only got 49% in 2008. The change in presidential numbers between '04 and '08 was about as dramatic, but I'm willing to bet that Perriello managed to pick up at least some of the people that voted for Goode before. Those folks will likely still have an open mind in 2010, and will be giving Perriello a fair shake.

If Dems are popular by the election next year, he will be too. If not, he'd better have excellent constituent service and some great campaigning abilities, because I don't think any amount of effort on the part of national Democrats will do him much good.

I'd just really like to see some polling done in this district. Come on, PPP!

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
lets hope so...
...i really like perriello and can see him as a major player in the party if can can make past this election cycle.
[ Parent ]
Bob Riley's numbers seem unusually high for a governor right now
SurveyUSA just put them at 56%-39%, a very good showing for a governor right now.  I'm curious if anyone knows why he's doing so well.  Has Alabama made it through the recession well?  Are Alabama voters just so partisan they'll approve of him?  Is he just doing his job really well?

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


On the D side
You could ask the same about Mike Beebe.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
I've been wondering that too actually
Nate Silver once theorized smaller states should have more popular governors.  That would explain Beebe.  But Alabama's about medium sized.        

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
And Lynch
Baldacci not so much.
[ Parent ]
It's not a perfect correlation but it does explain some stuff
The insane popularity of the Dakotas governors for example (also helped by the fact that Fargo actually added jobs).  

Of medium and large sized states (which I'll classify as having 5 or more congressional districts) we know Jindal and Riley are pretty popular.  No ones polled Brad Henry in a while but in June he was doing okay.  Jay Nixon is doing okay (though how okay seems to depend on the poll) and Quinn seems to be keeping his head above the water.  I can't remember seeing recent numbers for Sonny Perdue, Phil Bredesen, Mitch Daniels, or Rick Perry.  All the other medium or big state governors have mixed or bad numbers with a few cases of awful.   So Jindal and Riley seem to be the two medium state governors who are still being received well by their states.  What's their secret?  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
DE-Sen
Any word on when Beau Biden might announce his intentions?  
When he finds a spine?
He only hurts himself, and the party, the longer he dithers.... although the delay probably makes it more likely he will run, since he already kills his career if he does not run, but if he keeps us from fielding a great nominee because of his delaying, he becomes a disgrace.
[ Parent ]
hopefully he will announce in January
I'm getting a little annoyed as well.  If the party is going to risk losing the seat just to give him a free shot at the nomination, he had better freaking take it.
[ Parent ]
does anybody know...
...if he REALLY wants to be a senator?
[ Parent ]
That's
the million dollar question there. The democrats in Delaware tried to make it certain that all Beau had to do was walk into that seat January 2011. But it blew up in their face when Mike Castle announced he wanted to finish up his career in the US senate. I wouldn't be surprised if Beau takes a pass, especially now that he has to work for that seat.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
the gop...
...will have a field day if they manage to take the v.p.'s old senate seat. i get sick just thinking about it.
[ Parent ]
On the flip
Joe will go all out to save it. Even if his son isn't the nominee. Same goes for Illinois. Obviously it means the GOP are going to focus there too but it might mean catching them off guard elsewhere. Symbolic victories are all well and good if you can get them but tough to do that on such Democratic turf. Even a slight improvement in the national environment (which I think likely) and Dem senate prospects will see huge improvement since their defense is on blue ground and the GOP's is purple.
[ Parent ]
i agree...
with you on the national environment. i think it will improve enough to help. but we seem to have dug a couple of deep holes for ourselves. dodd and reid come to mind.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
Those are clearly the toughest along with Arkansas. I think Dodd probably has to get out but I wouldn't discount Reid. Still, swapping those three for a combination of Hodes, Carnahan, Fisher and Conway isn't impossible.
[ Parent ]
a three for three...
...trade is ok but losing a senate seat in a solid blue state like connecticut(full disclosure, my home state) is a real kick in the head. we got screwed in 06, i hate to see it happen again.
[ Parent ]
Can't pick and choose unfortunately
I still think Dodd will do the right thing though.
[ Parent ]
meaning...
...he steps aside for the good of the party and remains an elder statesman in good standing?
[ Parent ]
Exactly
And no doubt an appointment to serve at the pleasure of the president at some point in the future.
[ Parent ]
and...
...who fills the void he leaves behind? and remember there is also the governors race to consider as well. lamont'10?
[ Parent ]
Blumenthal
Anybody untainted by the appearance of scandal.
[ Parent ]
gov. or senate?

[ Parent ]
For senate
Bysiewicz and Lamont and running for governor.
[ Parent ]
sounds good to me...
...as long as they don't bloody each other. someone has to take on lieberman in 2012. conn dems should be getting their ducks in a row now.
[ Parent ]
Blumenthal like being AG
The problem with Blumenthal is that he actually likes being Attorney General. He had many chances over his career to move up and run for higher office. Each time he turned it down to stay AG because he actually likes being AG. To him it is his dream job. So it might be hard to get him to leave a job he likes so much to run for Senate.

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[ Parent ]
Jeez
Might be a long wait. Latest filing in the country. End of July.
[ Parent ]
waiting...
...only helps the gop. mike castle seems like a fairly reasonable repub. it's a risky strategy to give him this much time.
[ Parent ]
Just the thing with Castle
He isn't as liberal as people think. If it comes to it I think even Coons can beat him by hammering away on his voting record. But obviously if Beau is out the sooner the better he says so for fundraising if nothing else.
[ Parent ]
isn't that the case...
...with most, if not all the "reasonable" republicans? a closer look at their records reveals they are not what people think they are. mark kirk anyone?
[ Parent ]
I can't think of the last GOPer I would have voted for
Did we always put up liberal Dems against John Heinz in Pennsylvania?  If not, it would have been the Weicker-Lieberman race.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
lowell weicker...
...was the last republican i voted for. even though he lost to joe lieberman i feel it was one of my best votes!
[ Parent ]
Lowell Weicker, Lincoln Chafee
I would of voted for those guys. Too bad that wing of the GOP is gone and now replaced by escapees from the asylum.  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
chafee's father...
...was a pretty good guy too.
[ Parent ]
I would have voted for Chafee in 2000
In 2006 though, it was probably important that Democrats controlled the Senate. Chafee himself admitted as much. I was 16 at the time but my parents voted for Whitehouse and I would have too.

(Full disclosure: I interned for Whitehouse two summers ago, and I live very close to him.)

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
I would've voted for Whitehouse
because I liked Whitehouse, but I think Chafee would've changed parties or went Indy in 2006 had he won reelection.  
[ Parent ]
What makes you think that?
I think he would have been under pressure to stay with the GOP as long as he was in the Senate. Once he lost he was basically cut loose to do his own thing.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
In retrospect, it probably was.

[ Parent ]
Even at the time
it was clear to people following that race that the liberal thing to do was vote for Weicker.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Soon
 In the primary, he is going to go to the right and be more conservative than people think. In the general election, he should try to be MORE Liberal than people think.

About Beau, the Bidens are pretty popular and even though Michael Castle has a long history with the state, I think Beau would barely come through in the end.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Jeez give him a litttle time
      He got back from Iraq only two months ago after being there for nearly a year. Maybe he just wants to spend a little time with his family before he throws himself into a hard fought campaign. Besides which he's already very well known in Delaware and raising money won't be a problem. You can bet that daddy (the VP) and his boss will take care of that.
[ Parent ]
good night to all!

How we can beat Michael Castle
Here are the exit polls from 2008 with Castle vs. Hartley-Nagle

Total             Hartley-Nagle Castle  
Democrat    (48%)        62%     38%      
Republican  (31%)        10%     90%      
Independent (20%)        36%     64%

Basically, all a dem would need to have done in order to unseat Castle in 2008 would have been getting 82%+ of democrats will leting the other numbers hold the same. Had the DCCC recruited John Carney or Jack Markel in 2006 or 2008, Michael Castle would be retired living on the beaches of Florida like his wife wanted. With Carper's landslide 70% win in 2006 and Obama and Biden's coatails in 2008, it is really questionable why the DCCC did not recruit a top tier candidate to take out Castle.

In 2010, If Beau Biden runs, he is like to get at least 90% of dems and 43% of indies leaving me to conclude that the final results on election will look like:
55% Biden
45% Castle

Come on!
Bush got 45.75% of the vote in 2004 in DE. Are you saying the very popular Castle who got 38% of the Democrat vote will only do as well statewide vs Biden in what might be a GOP year as Bush did in 2004?

That's just not realistic.

Castle is way more popular in DE then Bush ever was.

DE is a small state and he has developed relationships with many Dem voters there who are willing to cross party lines and vote for him. So him only getting 18% of Dem vote is just not going to happen.

I would be interested to see Obama's approval numbers in DE. A Biden campaign might in many ways be a vote proxy for Obama. So his numbers in the state will be very important to Beau. If Obama has very high approval ratings I think Beau has a shot at it. If Obama is at or under 50% no way.



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[ Parent ]
Come on!
Bush got 45.75% of the vote in 2004 in DE. Are you saying the very popular Castle who got 38% of the Democrat vote will only do as well statewide vs Biden in what might be a GOP year as Bush did in 2004?

That's just not realistic.

Castle is way more popular in DE then Bush ever was.

DE is a small state and he has developed relationships with many Dem voters there who are willing to cross party lines and vote for him. So him only getting 18% of Dem vote is just not going to happen.

I would be interested to see Obama's approval numbers in DE. A Biden campaign might in many ways be a vote proxy for Obama. So his numbers in the state will be very important to Beau. If Obama has very high approval ratings I think Beau has a shot at it. If Obama is at or under 50% no way.



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[ Parent ]
Nye loses a challenger
From CQ Politics:

One of the seven Republicans challenging freshman Rep. Glenn Nye (D-Va.) is dropping out of the race and backing Scott Rigell, an automotive executive who is a leading candidate for the 2nd district seat.

Chuck Smith, a lawyer and former Marine, said in a statement Friday that he was ending his campaign and backing Rigell. whom he said was a "successful entrepreneur" who has "turned around a business, started new businesses, created good jobs, and balanced a budget."

Apparently, Smith had been fundraising poorly, so his withdrawal wouldn't seem to have any negative effect on the Republicans' chances to defeat Nye.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

CT-SEN: Team Red loses a vote because Glenn Beck is moving
"eerily successful, pasty faced right wing crybaby Glenn Beck has listed his family manse in New Canaan, CT with an asking price of $3,999,000."

http://realestalker.blogspot.c...

It's so great that he represents "regular" America
you know, with a $4 million house!

Oh tea-baggers, your movement against the elite only creates more of them....

[ Parent ]
NY-Sen B
Daily News says "no evidence" that Rudy will run against Gillibrand.
Rudy
has a gig with the Rio Olympics already if I'm correct. If I hear "9/11" one more time out of his mouth cracks whip.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 167 comments

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