Rasmussen (12/15, likely voters, 9/21 in parentheses):
Robin Carnahan (D): 46 (46)
Roy Blunt (R): 44 (46)
Some other: 4 (2)
Not sure: 6 (5)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
If there’s one thing everyone can agree on about the Missouri Senate race, it’s been polling remarkably consistently; with the exception of a GQR poll from April, it’s always been either a tie or a couple-point lead for Democratic SoS Robin Carnahan. That’s partly because races are always close in deeply-polarized Missouri, and also because Carnahan and Republican Rep. Roy Blunt are pretty well-defined in voters’ minds already. Look for these two to stay closely locked all the way through to next November — although if you ask me, if there’s one place where we might actually gain a Senate seat somewhere next year, it’s here.
The two even have remarkably similar favorables: Carnahan’s at 51/43, while Blunt is at 50/43. Barack Obama’s approval is at 47/53 (with the requisite 1% unsure for a total of 101%), indicating that Carnahan’s personal popularity associated with the family name helps her overperform the Democratic brand a bit.
RaceTracker: MO-Sen
on the other hand, it seems weird that so few are undecided a year out. haven’t a lot of rassys polls shown few if any undecideds?
We go from looking like we’re going to get a bloodbath (e.g. Dina Titus’ seat) to some really promising polls (e.g. North Carolina, Missouri)
even in a bad year. If Blunt wins this race, we’ve probably lost at least 4 in the Senate.
if turnout goes like you could expect (knowing which voters are motivated), a MOE draw means a narrow loss.
The HCR bill polled at 57/40 against with 50/50 on the public option.
Nixon had a 63% job approval for some reason (I’d seen lower JA for Jay). Obama was at 47%, also surprisingly high for Missouri. I think Rasmussen’s national polling for Obama isn’t even 47% (not that he mentions that number over the strongly app/disapp numbers). What that says for this poll, or his national poll, is beyond me.
The only real advertising mentioning Blunt or Carnahan is the “Congressman Blunt, clean up your act” ads that are airing in markets outside of MO-7.
It seems MO is always a key swingstate.
I think Dems cuaght a bit of a break with Blunt as the GOP candidate though.
Honestly, I thought the Blunt name would be Mudd there at this point, though.