PPP (pdf) (12/11-13, likely voters, 11/9-11 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 37 (34)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (45)
Undecided: 21 (21)
Kenneth Lewis (D): 37 (32)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 43 (45)
Undecided: 21 (23)
Cal Cunningham (D): 36 (31)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 45 (44)
Undecided: 20 (25)
Generic Democrat (D): 41 (40)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 42 (44)
Undecided: 17 (16)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
Civitas (12/1-3, likely voters, 10/20-21 in parentheses):
Elaine Marshall (D): 32 (33)
Richard Burr (R-inc): 40 (43)
Undecided: 21 (24)
Generic Democrat (D): 40 (NA)
Generic Republican (R): 39 (NA)
Undecided: 21 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.0%)
The new numbers in the North Carolina Senate race, I'm surprised to say, don't look half bad. While Richard Burr was looking like his lot had been improving in recent months, today's PPP poll shows Burr leading his best-known Democratic opponent, SoS Elaine Marshall, by only 5 points, and the elusive "Generic Democrat" by only 1. In fact, I'd be inclined to think that PPP got a lucky bounce with a favorable sample here, if we didn't have separate confirmation from Civitas with similar numbers. They find Marshall a little further back, but with a similar positive trend, and they find a 1-point gap in favor of Generic D over Generic R in their first attempt at a generic ballot.
So is there an easing in the anti-Democratic sentiment here, perhaps as we start to show tangible signs of economic rebound? I wouldn't generalize that, based on how little the same sample likes Kay Hagan (36/44 approvals) or Bev Perdue (a dire 27/53). Instead, I think we're seeing an electorate so surly they hate all incumbents, regardless of their stripes: Burr's not much better, at 35/37 (at least he can take some comfort in that he's gotten 70% of the electorate to know who he is). Elaine Marshall's the only person they've tested who's in the net positives, at 19/12 -- and that low name rec points to room to grow.
RaceTracker Wiki: NC-Sen |
