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SSP Daily Digest: 12/11

by: Crisitunity

Fri Dec 11, 2009 at 2:48 PM EST


AR-Sen: A labor-funded group, the Citizens for Strength and Security, is up with a six-digit ad buy in the Arkansas Senate race, attacking putative GOP frontrunner state Sen. Gilbert Baker for his pork-hungry ways. There's some speculation, though, that the real target of the ad isn't Baker but rather Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who's publicly mulling a primary challenge to Blanche Lincoln; observers wonder if this is a sign that the SEIU and allies are firing a shot across Halter's bow, showing that they have Lincoln's back (at least monetarily) in exchange for a cloture vote on health care reform for her. With the Arkansas Democratic Party also laying out a lot of money on a pro-Lincoln TV ad, there does seem to be something concerted going on.

CT-Sen: Linda McMahon has caught a lot of attention with her splashy spending on the Senate race, blowing through $2 million in three months. Her first campaign finance report, though, is creating a whole lot of question marks. A significant amount of that money isn't itemized (as campaign finance laws would require), but rather listed as in-kind contributions from McMahon herself; this goes well beyond the usual food and travel stuff that gets listed as in-kind, to include legal fee, survey research, and technology. On the Dem side, poor Chris Dodd won't be able to attend his own Biden-headlined fundraiser because of the Senate's working weekend; his wife Jackie will be pinch-hitting for him.

FL-Sen: RNC chair Michael Steele previously warned stimulus-supporting moderates that the GOP would be "coming after them," but he dialed that back in a recent St. Pete Times interview when the subject came to Charlie Crist, suggesting a more neutral RNC stance on the Senate primary. He sounded sympathetic about Crist's job, saying being governor is "not as simple as right or left."

IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Planned Parenthood issued endorsements in the Illinois races, and just went with the establishment choices (Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn), despite Cheryle Jackson making a big issue out of reproductive rights in health care reform in her Senate primary bid. Perhaps to even things out after spurning Jackson, they also endorsed in the Cook County Board president race, giving the nod to Toni Preckwinkle.

NC-Sen: We're already seeing some ideological differences in the North Carolina Dem primary field, as SoS Elaine Marshall and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham seek to differentiate themselves. Marshall says she'd support the public option, while Cunningham says he'd only have voted to start debate on HCR. (Campaign Diaries also has a longer piece on the race today.)

NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator (i.e. county commissioner in most states) Jon Cooper is the only elected Dem who has been moving full speed ahead on a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand rather than tipping in a toe and then turning tail. (Activist Jonathan Tasini is already committed to a primary run too.) Cooper says he'll make a public announcement about his intentions next week, and considering that he's bringing along a few allies (most notably Assemblyman Charles Levine) it may point to a run... not that he's likely to pose much of a challenge to Gillibrand.

CO-Gov: The Denver Post has an in-depth look at how the state's teabaggers are in a lather over the party establishment's efforts to clear the field for ex-Rep. Scott McInnis in the gubernatorial race. With state Sen. Josh Penry and ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo pushed aside, though, they don't have anyone to hang their tri-cornered hats on, other than random businessman Dan Maes, who doesn't seem to have the name rec or money to make much of an impact in the primary.

ID-Gov: Democrats finally landed a credible candidate to go up against Butch Otter in the Idaho governor's race (one of the few anywhere in either column to rate as "Safe"). Keith Allred is a former Harvard professor who's now a mediator and consultant, who's attracted a lot of attention via his bipartisan economy-boosting group The Common Interest.

MN-Gov: Here's another campaign finance screwup, that may hurt gubernatorial candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher. It turns out that Kelliher maxed-out donors were directed to give to the DFL, which in turn bought an expensive voter database for Kelliher's campaign's use. The money has been returned, but this may point to some favoritism on the DFL's part, because this arrangement wasn't offered to any of the other candidates.

NV-Gov: This may be an exercise in advanced tea leaf reading, but the fact that Carolyn Goodman, wife of Las Vegas mayor Oscar Goodman, has stepped down from her post on the school board is taken to mean that she may be planning on running for Las Vegas mayor in 2011 -- which would in turn suggest that Oscar Goodman will be planning on being Governor at that point.

GA-12: Bedecked in a fuschia hat, former state Sen. Regina Thomas officially kicked off her Dem primary rematch against Rep. John Barrow with an event in Savannah today. She only got 24% against Barrow last year, but may benefit from an earlier start this cycle.

TN-08: The elevation of farmer/gospel singer Stephen Fincher to "Contender" by the NRCC isn't sitting well with some other Republicans in the district who are sniffing out the now-competitive race in the wake of Rep. John Tanner's retirement. A few other Republicans, most notably Shelby County Commissioner George Flinn Jr., are interested. (Flinn is from the district's small slice of Memphis suburbs, which may be a liability though in this mostly-rural district.) Also mentioned as a potential GOP candidate is Jackson-area physician Ron Kirkland.

Cook Co. Board Pres.: There's already a poll out on the Cook County Board president race (the top slot in the nation's second-largest county, and the race that Rep. Danny Davis recently dropped out of). Incumbent Todd Stroger is in bad shape, with only 14% of the vote; he trails both Dorothy Brown at 29 and Toni Preckwinkle at 20, leading only Terrence O'Brien at 11.

Mayors: The mayoral runoff in Houston, the nation's fourth-largest city, is set for tomorrow. City controller Annise Parker (who just got Burnt Orange Report's endorsement) led in the November election; she faces former city attorney Gene Locke. A Parker victory would make Houston by far the largest city to ever elect an openly LGBT mayor.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/11
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Typical to see a McMahon skirting the law
I was afraid to post about the CT race though because I know all the Dodd hates might start comparing a man who's presidential campaign I volunteered for with Jim Bunning, such comparisons make me mad as hell.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


The comparison is real
But only in terms of electability. Dodd is twice the man Bunning ever was.

[ Parent ]
You are not a baseball fan
No real baseball fan would ever write that "Dodd is twice the man Bunning ever was"!

I don't think Dodd could even throw a curveball.

BTW, I don't think the situations are the same.

Bunning got in trouble for being a kook while Dodd is in trouble for being a crook!

Bunning had the same problem in the Senate that he did in MLB. He shook off the catcher way too much. The GOP powers that be didn't like that & withheld the campaign cash from him forcing him out.

Dodd is in trouble because he (allegedly) got a crooked loan in exchange for politcal favors. Like his old man Dodd got caught taking what looks like a bribe.

He's got a ton on campaign cash in the bank (after all raising $$$ is Dodd's game) so he's a tougher guy to squeeze out.

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[ Parent ]
You are correct
Political junkie here. I view most things through that lense to my families great chagrin! :)

[ Parent ]
Two problems with the comparison
First, McConnell shitcanned Bunning not because he was trailing in the polls, but because he's had Altzheimer's for years and is batshit crazy.  You don't see him doing the same thing to Roy Blunt, another Republican candidate who singlehandedly makes his seat vulnerable.

Second, I'm okay with saying Dodd should retire and let us hold the seat, but only if Blanche Lincoln and Harry Reid do the same.  Both are polling underwater in seats we'd have a much better shot at without them -- we'd win NV-Sen in a walk without Reid.  I'd rather fight for a solid liberal like Dodd than for Lincoln or Reid, but I'll be damned if I'm going to be asked to fight for Lincoln and Reid while acquiescing to forcing out Dodd.  He's earned the right to be fought for; they haven't.  The least Blue Dogs can do is treat them equally.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


[ Parent ]
Hrm
"The least Blue Dogs can do is treat them equally."

Not sure what the Blue Dogs have to do with this......

Whatever the case, one could easily say that the difference between not forcing out Lincoln and forcing out Dodd is due to the scandals Dodd has gotten himself into, even if he wasn't found guilty. Lincoln has not been involved in any scandals.

Besides, Dodd moved his family out of the state during his failed Presidential bid.

I've always liked Dodd, though I disagree with him on many issues. However, if I was a CT voter, his stunt during the Presidential race would have been enough for me to vote against him.


[ Parent ]
Well...
The thing with Blanche Lincoln is that she's such a weak incumbent and, speaking as a liberal myself, there's not much justification letting her go while dumping Dodd. Like I said before, I'm liberal (actually I'm probably quite a bit more liberal than a typical Democrat, just so you know where I'm coming from) but I'm willing to accept that certain places require more moderate-to-conservative members (which Arkansas qualifies). From an ideological perspective it's just hard to justify supporting Lincoln (as opposed to, say, Mary Landrieu or Ben Nelson) when it's not a given that she's that strong a candidate.

Yeah, Dodd's move to Iowa was a bit much, and I think we should get someone else just because it'd be much easier to keep the Senate seat, but one can make that case for Lincoln even though she has no scandals (which is why her candidacy is in some ways worse).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
NC-Sen, so Marshall is more progressive than Cunnigham?
At least this excerpt so suggests:

Marshall says she'd support the public option, while Cunningham says he'd only have voted to start debate on HCR.


Well while I like Cunningham a lot
and I think he is charismatic and could be a better candidate against Burr, I will consider the issues.  

If Cunningham runs as another Blue Dog conservative Democrat, I will vote for Marshall in the primary.  

My biggest problem with Marshall is her age, she is 65, which I don't believe is a good age to start a Senate career, unless that candidate is a slam dunk.


[ Parent ]
Ditto this.
This is really disappointing.

Cal is a friend of a friend, and as such, I had planned to contribute generously to his campaign - maybe even to the point of a max-level donation. All of that is suddenly on hold after the RCP interview. I need to hear some semblance of a commitment to progressive politics, and clear support for a public option would be a fine place to start.

I'm tired of having to beg Democrats to run, vote, and act like Democrats.


[ Parent ]
You needn't worry
Half of the Blue Dog Democrats voted for the house health care bill.

http://www.humanevents.com/art...


[ Parent ]
The Cunningham twist sounds like a "Rahmbo" thing
It's as if Rahm Emanuel believes that waffling on the PO is the only way to get elected, even in a "new South" state like NC.

[ Parent ]
To an outsider
thus far Marshall is a slam dunk better choice.  The only drawback is her age, but 65 ain't dead.  

And serving for two terms would be a lot given North Carolina's recent history.


[ Parent ]
Charlie Cook has a great analysis of Dem House prospects in 2010
Anotherwords Dems still need many more retirements to lose the House even if 2010 turned out to be a lot like 1994.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/n...

In the 1994 wipeout, 225 Democrats sought re-election, as 31 either retired or ran for other office; of those, 191 won, while 34 lost, an 85-15 percent ratio. But out of Democrats' 31 open seats, 22, or 71 percent, fell into GOP hands.

The last horrible midterm election for Republicans wasn't so long ago. In 2006, when 211 GOP incumbents sought re-election, 21 retired or ran for other office; 189 of the 211 won re-election, a 90-10 percent ratio. Out of Republicans' 21 open seats, eight, or 38 percent, fell into Democratic hands.

So the ballpark percentages for losses for House incumbents of a party under siege who are seeking re-election seem to be between 2006's 10 percent and 1994's 15 percent.

Do the math: Assume Republicans really need to pick off about 45 Democratic seats to net 41 seats. After all, even 1994's Democrats picked up four open GOP seats.

A 10 percent Democratic-incumbent loss rate might mean 20-25 Democrats are unseated, close to the number of seats Democrats picked up in 1982 during President Ronald Reagan's first midterm election. A 15 percent loss rate might mean 30-35 Democrats are unseated, close to the number of Democrats who lost reelection in 1994 but perhaps still not enough to turn the majority.



This seems a bit obvious but..
isn't the biggest difference btween now and '94 is that there is no Newt Gingrich for the Republicans?  There's no "Contract with America" or any real platform most of these candidates are running off of except to oppose anything Obama does.  The GOP leadership just doesn't seem to be as sharp.  True, they've gotten better with the implementation of their Young Guns program, but many of their touted recruits (Sid Leiken, Van Tran, Frank Guinta) have fizzled fast and they haven't gained much traction in other races (ID-1, MD-1) where they should have a decided advantage.  I hate Gingrich like a lot of folks here, but damn if he wasn't good at kicking our asses back in then.  It just seems that they're riding the wave of anti-Obama sentiment and...that's it.  Their overall strategy doesn't seem to be as cohesive as it was back then.  Or am I just drinking the Kool-Aid?

[ Parent ]
Good point
I agree with that assessment.  In 1994 republicans had a pretty detailed set of ideas to run on.  Many of those ideas were never very popular, but they had ideas nevertheless.  Going into 2010 they seem to be running on no central platform other than opposing anything Obama/Congressional Dems support.  For the most part they have no alternative solutions.  That strategy will probably work in the south but it's unlikely to work in other parts of the country.

[ Parent ]
Didn't the media like to criticize Dems in 2006...
...for not having a Contract-like plan? I know Pelosi had some half-assed "plan" called "Six [Priorities] in '06" if I recall correctly, but I don't think anyone noticed or cared much about its existence.

[ Parent ]
That sounds about right, 6 in 06
She spoke at the College Dems of America conference in summer of 06 and she said all that.  At the time I ate it up being such a young, energetic Democrat but looking back on it, it was an election where we really didnt need to have too much of a plan, people were ready to vote against the GOP regardless.

[ Parent ]
True.
Though the Dems were probably looking for reasons for voters to vote for them, not just that "we're not Republicans", trying to learn from the mistakes from 2004, where Kerry was pretty much just "not Bush", and not much else.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Who else is going to run?
Blumenthal, who constantly has cold feet and runs away from every tough race quicker than Lieberman running away from military service?  How about Ned Lamont who couldn't answer some very basic questions about Connecticut thus letting Lieberman win re-election.  I'm sure Chris Murphy would work better in some people's minds around here than Chris Dodd, given that people around here think Chris feels entitled to the Senate seat.  

If they want to run, put your money where your mouth is and draft somebody because Chris doesn't have to step aside and no one else should make that choice except for the voters of Connecticut.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


Entitled?
Nobody thinks that. Actually most were set against Beau Biden being given the seat in Delaware since it was thought he should earn it. In an ideal world that would have been fine but the decision to go with a placeholder is really hurting now. Ideally Dodd would and should be reelected but I think it is becoming increasingly clear that he is too damaged. It is a damn shame but there are better options.

[ Parent ]
Interesting piece from PPP
about Democratic governors potentially scoring own goals with their Senate appointments.  Madigan would have locked up IL and Cuomo would have locked up NY.  More debatable whether better appointments could have locked up CO and DE, but I suspect better appointments would have made them Democratic-favored, especially Colorado.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


Would Madigan have accepted?
Would Cuomo? Any Dem would probably be vulnerable in polling to Pataki and Giuliani. Illinois is a case on its own. The biggest screw up was Colorado. Ritter deserves to lose because of it. It all goes to Dems trying to do what they think is right when Repubs everytime will pick the best candidate for both policy and electoral reasons.

[ Parent ]
Agree
Bennett was simply a terrible appointment.

And blame should go to Obama.  He didn't need to take Salazar out of the senate.


[ Parent ]
Partly
But Salazar was a good pick and not a great Senator. Can you imagine what he would be like now oh HCR? Fact is if Ritter had just gone with Hickenlooper then problem solved.  

[ Parent ]
Why?
"But Salazar was a good pick and not a great Senator"

Salazar was elected to represent the state of Colorado in the Senate, and I'm fairly certain his views were aligned with the majority of voters in the state.


[ Parent ]
Not Really
As a Coloradan, I can tell you that that might have been true long ago, when the Denver suburbs (except the southern ones) hadn't trended Democratic.  But, now, Salazar would have only represented a declining percentage of rural voters who call themselves Democrats.  They come mostly from Salazar's base in the San Luis Valley and in more conservative areas of the Colorado mountain counties.  In the Front Range corridor, where the Democratic votes really lie, Salazar was a Senator to be elected, watched closely, and, for the most part, tolerated...but never loved.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
In 2004 Colorado maybe
That was the best we could get elected at the time.  But as 2008 showed we can do much better (Udall).

[ Parent ]
Although, both Udalls
have been a bit disappointing.  I dont have certain votes to recite off the top of my head but I remember going through Senate roll call votes and giving the "wtf" look on several occasions because of them.

[ Parent ]
When the chips are down
They are there. That is what matters.

[ Parent ]
Meh
Tom Udall has been more liberal than Jeff Bingaman and has been the more liberal of the two Udalls (the only thing I can think of offhand in which I've had a problem with Mark Udall is the EFCA flip-flop, but I wasn't particularly surprised either).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Or Romanoff
Ritter and Hickenlooper don't get along, so that would've been unlikely. And I'd bet ole Hick has his eye on the governor's office, not the Senate.

But if Ritter had just appointed someone with experience as an elected official like (fmr CO House speaker) Andrew Romanoff, we'd been in a lot better shape.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.


[ Parent ]
Ritter is simply a bad politician
First, he infuriates labor, one of the big forces in the Democratic Party, by vetoing worker-friendly legislation. Then, he proceeds to appoint Michael Bennet, a school superintendent who has never run for anything and is so wooden and uncharismatic he makes the bland Ken Salazar look like President Obama.

I wish we could've gotten Andrew Romanoff or John Hickenlooper to run against him in the primary. Ritter generates no enthusiasm among the Democratic base and it would be a real shame to lose the seat to some has been like Scott McInnis. I wish ol' man Tancredo would've made good on his threat to run.


[ Parent ]
It's an interesting thought...
Madigan and Cuomo would have definitely said no to being appointed. She knows having the taint of an appointment by Rod Blagojevich would've been hard to shake, even though she's not corrupt. Similarly, I'd imagine Cuomo had little interest in a Senate appointment when he's dreamed of being governor. Why Madigan declined to run for Senate when she would have had a clear path to the seat in 2010 is beyond me.

John Carney should've gotten the Senate seat appointment. Beau Biden could've run against Castle (which would surely have forced him into retirement) and then stuck around until Carper retired.

I like Gillibrand fine. I think she's been a reliable vote in the Senate and I don't begrudge her having to be more conservative in the House when she represented an upstate district. She's raising money at a fast clip and for all the talk about Giuliani or Pataki getting in, I think she's probably going to get a free pass in the special election. Paterson handled that appointment horribly though and it's contributed to his toxic approvals.


[ Parent ]
cuomo & patterson could have struck a deal
If Patterson had any political sense he could have struck a deal with Cuomo and named him to the Senate. He could have made a secret pact with him that if Cuomo wanted to run for Gov they could have swapped races (after all Patterson even said he would rather be a US Senator). That way Patterson could have a senate seat to run for if he got bumped from Gov.

Also allowing Shelly Silver to name a new AG would have gained him a lot of brownie points in the Assembly.

It would have been a win win for everyone involved.

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[ Parent ]
The thing is I think Cuomo was never all that excited about becoming a senator
And I think Paterson always wanted a woman and someone who was from upstate. Cuomo, probably would have accepted if he had been asked. Based on the fact that it looked like at the time he was going to be AG for the foreseeable future. And of course being a senator is a step up from an AG. And as for the NY Assembly choosing the next AG, um I don't know if I would be thrilled with that if I was Paterson. You would once again have another appointed official in the NY state government, not good. Honestly, I think it was the whole entire senate process that ruined Paterson. I'm not a fan of Gillibrand, and I don't really like the fact that she's getting a free ride in terms of a primary. But, I do think she's unfairly getting a  bad rap for how he handled the entire thing.  

[ Parent ]
What ruined Paterson
Honestly, I think it was the whole entire senate process that ruined Paterson.

It sure didn't help, but the thing that I believe did most to ruin Paterson's chances of being elected as Governor was his steadfast refusal to countenance any tax hike on millionaires, while at the same time, he never shrunk from cutting services or raising all kinds of fees that hurt the rest of us. That kind of behavior doesn't work for a Democrat in New York State.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
My opinion on the various appointments
 If had to guess I would probably say out of these four the seat that probably stands the most chance of switching is Colorado. Based on the fact that Bennett is a complete unknown, and the fact that he's never run a campaign before. I'm not saying that he's not an intelligent person or a good senator. But you have to be careful with rookie campaigners. Although I really don't know how well Romanoff would have been doing if had been the one that was appointed. I mean aside from us political junkies, how many people know who the speaker of the house in Colorado is? Also, Colorado had been trending blue the last few election cycles. But it's still basically a toss-up state.

Next up, I think is Illinois. You know I don't think Giannoulias is as strong a candidate as some people think. I think Hoffman actually is an interesting candidate with a lot less baggage. Apparently the White House kind of feels the same way. They did seem like they were really trying to recruit other candidates for this race. Between his family's bank and his handling of the Bright Star College Fund, there's a lot of material the Republicans could throw at him. Fortunately, and I think this is reflected in the new Rasmussen poll, Kirk has been acting like some a god dam flip-flopper lately, that he make Mitt Romney beam with pride. Not to mention his sucking up to the Tea bag crowd. This is going to come back to haunt him come general election time. Plus you have the fact that it's Obama's old senate seat, and he'll probably campaign like crazy there in order to keep it.

Next up Delaware, again you also have the fact that it's the Vice-President's son. Which means both the President and the Vice-President will be camping out there. Beau should have a few advantages, he's young, attractive and he already a state wide official. However Castle is also a republican that has a history of getting elected in a blue state, and you can bet the RNC, like with Illinois is going to make sure that he's well funded in order to stick it to the White House. On another note I know some people complained that this appointment (Ted Kauffman) was kind of shady because it was keeping the seat warm for Beau. I actually disagree, in fact frankly I think this is the best method. Appoint a caretaker, and let anyone who want's to run, run.

Last up I think is New York. I do think Gillibrand getting elected is contingent on a couple of things. First up, whether or not Paterson will continue with his suicide mission and run for reelection. Fair or not she's tied to him. Of course if he steps down, and I think he will eventually. I'm sure the media will bring up the botched senate appointment process and how awful he handled that, that won't exactly be very good for Gillibrand in the short term. However if the ticket is headed by Schumer and Cuomo, I'm sure she will breath a lot easier. Second, what kind of candidate the GOP puts up. It's looking increasingly likely that Gulliani or Pataki won't end up running. Which of course would up her chances. But I'm not totally convinced that an unknown candidate would not have a shot against her. I mean hey how many people knew about Pataki in late 1993. This is all of course contingent on the GOP finding a nice normal moderate Republican to run. But without Guliani or Pataki, I don't think the RNC will show a lot of interest in the race. Third, I think Gillibrand is being a little to complacent. It's been almost a year since she was appointed. It's time to find a way to get those numbers up. I think she should start advertising, she's raised a lot of money. She should start defining herself before someone else does.


[ Parent ]
Delaware
I would also imagine Beau's solid military background, including Iraq deployment helps.  That really goes a long way in convincing voters he has a good degree of foreign relations experience.

[ Parent ]
The big mistake in Colorado
was not the appointment of Bennet.  It was the nomination of Ritter, when we could have had a much more reliable Democrat in 2006.

[ Parent ]
Who challenged him?
Hickenlooper and all the other big name Dems all passed on the Governor's race.  It's not Ritter's fault he was the only one to step up to the plate.  Candidates can put up or shut up.    

[ Parent ]
The Democratic Party establishment
should have pushed someone else in the race.

[ Parent ]
They were probably going for electability early on
Early in that race Beauprez was widely viewed as a strong candidate.  I don't know anyone who thought it would end up a near 20 point beatdown.  The party ended up backing Ritter because he was viewed as moderate and very electable.  In hindsight we could have elected someone more progressive, but we don't have the luxury.  And Hickenlooper could have still given Ritter a real primary fight and maybe won.  It was his choice to sit on the sidelines.

[ Parent ]
They did try to pressure Hickenlooper into the race
but he had no interest.  

[ Parent ]
Labor funded group
What unions are funding this group?  And what for?  Lincoln stabbed them in the back on EFCA and she's been nothing by an AHIP toady on health care.  Instead of firing a shot at Bill Halter they should be planning to support him.

I'm interested in where people stand in the Houston run-off
Personally, I think it would be great if Annise Parker won.

Locke is a real a-hole
He's been palling around with a notorious anti-gay activist who's been sending out gay-baiting anti-Parker mailers that are funded by Locke's finance chairman.

Parker is a great candidate and will make a great mayor.  She's done everything right to win this race, while Locke has done everything wrong (even his right-wing pandering is ham-handed, and the right-wing candidate in the first round actually endorsed Parker because he was so pissed at Locke).  If Parker can't win this, it's because people are bigots, and for no other reason.  But I think she'll pull it out.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...


[ Parent ]
Stop the Presses (are there any left to stop)
Poor Senate Appointments Put Seats in Play

A headline from PoliticalWire; get the smelling salts. Although I'm curious, is there anyone who didn't think these appointments were weak?

More from PPP


Also on that link
You can vote on which republican-held house seat to be polled next.  I picked NE-02.

NE-02, MN-06 or OH-12


[ Parent ]
Hell yes!
MN-6 is winning.  OH-12 is probably a terrible one to poll, our candidate probably has quite low name recognition so I dont think it'll show much.

[ Parent ]
None of them are particularly
Exciting. What happended to their Boucher poll?

[ Parent ]
Ditto on NE-02
Great place to poll.

Polling Bachmann is just silly.  She's a special case.  

NE-02 is a perfect place to poll to gauge purplish, pink districts.

PPP should stop with the circus polls and start polling something with some greater significance.


[ Parent ]
Why would polling MN-6
be silly?  It certainly wouldnt portend much for national politics but it'd be nice to see if the "my congresswoman is crazy" sentiment carries over from the 08 cycle.

I guess Im optimistic in hoping that the numbers show a Musgrave like race but Im realistic enough to know the tea-bagger population is much too high to not keep it a close race, unless the Independents vote against 2-1 or something.


[ Parent ]
I wouldn't say silly
But I think polling NE-02 makes more sense.  It's one of those races we just let slip away in 2008.  NE-02 would probably be a better barmoeter for showing us how well or how badly we look in 2010 on picking up republican-held seats outside of the obvious targets like DE-AL and LA-02.

[ Parent ]
It's just as well Esch didn't win in 2008
He would have been on the Parker Griffith/Walt Minnick/Bobby Bright end of the Democratic caucus.

[ Parent ]
President Obama did win NE-02
So Esch could have been on the Dennis Moore/Tom Perrillo/Stephanie Herseth Sandlin side of the caucus..... or maybe even closer to our mainstream.

I don't think  President Obama won Griffith/Minnick/Bright's districts.


[ Parent ]
Looking at his issues pages, he doesn't sound that mainstream to me
http://www.jimesch.org/issues/

Pro-life, pro-gun, and in favor of a "greater role for the private market" for health care reform.

Also, he left the Democratic Party earlier this year to become an independent.


[ Parent ]
I read the same things differently
For the first two points, it is Nebraska. As for health care, the noted page does say:

Comprehensive health care reform can be realized through system-wide reforms that achieve greater accessibility and greater affordability of health insurance coverage and health care for all Americans.

This was before President Obama proposed HCR, so this is as far as many Ds were able to go.

And here's a bit of how NNN sees Esch's re-registration (bolding mine)
http://www.newnebraska.net/dia...

Esch spoke to and represented Democratic values on the campaign trail.  He relied upon Democratic volunteers - especially a whole lot of young Democrats who considered him one of their own.  Still, Esch never was a party guy.


[ Parent ]
They don't poll many house races
so polling a total outlier would be silly except from a circus perspective.  It offers not one smidgen of information that anyone can use outside that district.

Let's see a poll that can be useful being the sideshow in one district.


[ Parent ]
I think only really big f up as CO
The best scenario for DE would've been Carney being Senator and Beau running for Castle's seat, two easy holds and Castle would've probably just retired then.

Gillibrand will be fine and the IL fiasco is certainly a lot bigger than just, the wrong person got picked.


[ Parent ]
stuff in Illinois
Planned Parenthood issued endorsements in the Illinois races, and just went with the establishment choices (Alexi Giannoulias and Pat Quinn), despite Cheryle Jackson making a big issue out of reproductive rights in health care reform in her Senate primary bid. Perhaps to even things out after spurning Jackson, they also endorsed in the Cook County Board president race, giving the nod to Toni Preckwinkle.

Giannoulias is doing the best job of courting supporters. It's not that bigwigs in Chicago, Springfield or DC told organizations and party leaders to support Giannoulias. He's been out hustling for support.

I don't know what you mean by "Cheryle Jackson making a big issue out of reproductive rights". I'm pretty involved at the local level and Jackson has not gotten herself in front of voters as aggressively as Giannoulias and Hoffman. All the candidates are pro-choice in this race. It's not Planned Parenthood's job to throw Jackson's campaign a lifeline.

Going with Quinn is the safe move for PP. He's the incumbent. The Cook County Dem Party endorsed him. Outside of getting the teachers and blocking Quinn from getting the AFL-CIO, Hynes hasn't been effective at courting organizational support. And if all things were equal, I think the people who sit on the board to decide Quinn or Hynes simply have more affinity for Quinn.

The idea that PP endorsed Preckwinkle to balance some other race is laughable. Preckwinkle got the nod because it's a no-brainer. Preckwinkle is from Hyde Park and has a long history with progressive activists. Brown is anti-abortion. Stroger is hated outside a minor base in the Black community. And since the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District does deal with reproductive issues, O'Brien hasn't developed a relationship with these people.

Endorsing someone besides Preckwinkle would have hurt Planned Parenthood's fundraising.

If Cheryle Jackson wants to be taken more seriously as a candidate she should campaign more seriously.

Don't like Giannoulias? Sorry. But he's campaigning more effectively than are his Dem opponents.


Jon Cooper switching gears to the State Senate
I attended the Equality LI town hall at the LGBT Community Center in Bay Shore yesterday when Assemblyman Charles Lavine called for Jon Cooper to run against Carl Marcellino for State Senate.  That may well be Coopers upcoming announcement in the days ahead.  Cooper did not say no to Lavine at the meeting!

Cal Cunningham
If Cal is going to run as a conservative I am voting for Elaine.


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