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WA-03: Wallace to Jump in for Dems

by: Crisitunity

Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 2:06 PM EST


It looks like the Democrats aren't wasting any time lining up a successor to retiring Rep. Brian Baird either:

The party quickly landed a well-regarded candidate in state Rep. Deb Wallace, who announced her campaign this morning. A legislator with experience winning in the most politically-competitive part of the district (Clark County), she sports high marks from the National Rifle Association and environmental groups alike....

In a brief interview with POLITICO hours after Baird's announcement, Van Hollen singled out Wallace as a "terrific candidate" with other Democratic candidates likely to enter the race.

The article makes clear that the "other candidates" are state Sen. Mike Craig Pridemore and state Rep. Brendan Williams, both of whom were repeatedly mentioned yesterday -- meaning we could be looking at a contested primary. Wallace, who represents the swingy (R+1) 17th LD in Vancouver's suburbs, sounds reminscent of pro-gun, pro-environment ex-Rep. Jolene Unsoeld, who represented the 3rd from 1988 until getting wiped out in 1994. (Pridemore and Williams are from bluer turf -- Pridemore from central Vancouver, and Williams from Olympia.)

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WA-03: Wallace to Jump in for Dems | 74 comments
Sounds like the most electable candidate
Anyone know if she's betetr on economic issues that Baird?
Her Vote Smart profile looks promising
http://www.votesmart.org/issue...

Looks like Labor ratings of 90 to 100, and her NRA "A" record fits the district.

However, her environment record is mixed - the WA state conservation voter group loves her, the Sierra Club does not. That probably is also a good fit for the district.

[ Parent ]
Not bad
She has fairly good ratings from liberal groups on most issues.  Fairly good scores from business groups which concerns me, but still sounds like a marginal improvement over Baird.
[ Parent ]
Record looks ok
I'll bet she's attacked on the hunting vote and the payday loan vote.  
[ Parent ]
Wallace sounds like an excellent fit
The Columbian in Vancouver, endorsing her re-election last year, wrote: http://www.columbian.com/artic...

"Versatility and dedication have marked Wallace's three terms as state representative. Since emerging as a Democratic Dunn-beater in 2002, Wallace has excelled, first, in transportation issues and, in the past two sessions, in education matters. She has chaired the Higher Education Committee."

Additional color on the district - http://blog.seattlepi.com/seat...

The 3rd District's most famous member of Congress was the late Rep. Julia Butler Hansen from Cathlamet, often nicknamed "the little old lady in loggers boots."

Cook moved WA-03 to tossup
Premature if you ask me.  I'd call it Leans D for now, but that's just me.
Yikes
He also moved CT-Sen to Leans R.  He practically never puts an incumbent worse than tossup.  Get the message Dodd - retire.
[ Parent ]
Yup
Pass healthcare and go out on  high note.  
[ Parent ]
I'm glad
This is getting some play over at Political Wire.  I hope it catches on and Dodd gets out.  He's spent lots of time and money trying to repair his image, and he is just too damaged.  I didn't think that would be the case, but it is.  Time to get out and let Blumenthal clean up the mess.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Agree
Dems should pressure him the way Republicans pressured Bunning.
[ Parent ]
Also agree
Very similar situation. Though I think there is still time to let him make his own mind up. He deserves that at the very least.
[ Parent ]
Time
The filing deadline's not till June.  But I'd like for Dodd to make a decision by the end of March.
[ Parent ]
Dodd will win reelection.
I have no doubt of that in my mind.  Connecticut will not elect a man that spends his time buttering up teabaggers, a woman with no problem with simulated rape, or a Paulbot.  The moment any of these goons open their mouths in a general election they're done for.

I can't believe how many fair weather friends we have in the netroots.  In '07, a majority of us were singing Dodd's praises or leading against FISA, now everyone's whining "The polls look bad! Dodd, please, retire!"  Why not dig in the heels and fight instead of whimper and complain?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Yeah
And there is no way Rove's goon could win in Jersey either.  
[ Parent ]
As long as Dodd doesn't call his opponent fat
Or go mediate between Don Imus and a basketball team in a budget crisis, I'm sure he'll be fine.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
You don't seriously think
That was why Corzine lost do you?
[ Parent ]
Oh I think they contributed enormously
Corzine was a horrible governor.  The state fell apart on his watch and he stood there looking inept and powerless while the party machinery's corruption became increasingly obvious.  On the points I mentioned, you don't tell your driver to ignore the speed limit to rush to mediate between a bigoted radio hosts and those he's smeared while your state's budget is in shambles-it looked terrible!  And in the final stretch of the campaign, where it looked like Corzine was punching his way off the ropes, he had to get bogged down in that whole name calling bit which took him way off message.  So yes, I'd say those two things were symptoms of Corzine's larger problems, ineffective governance and bad messaging.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
To be fair, given the general economic trends, 2010 probably won't be quite as unfavorable as 2009
n/t

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Certainly
But there is much more to Dodd's troubles than the national economy.
[ Parent ]
The question of trustworthiness
AIG and Countrywide weigh a lot more heavily on the minds of people who can't find jobs or pay their bills.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Wait a minute
Dodd fought harder than anyone else to reign in AIG before being reigned in himself by the Obama Administration.  And he was cleared of any wrong doing with the countrywide mess-these scandals are simply false.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
I agree
But the damage has pretty much been done in terms of his reputation.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
conspiracy is correct, Dodd's troubles are personal to him......
No doubt the bad economy hurts him at present just as it does most Democrats.

But Dodd was in deep trouble when Obama was still in his honeymoon and national right-direction/wrong-track numbers were steadily improving to nearly 50-50 (which is GREAT in the history of that polling statistic because most people are complainers and the number is very rarely in positive territory).

Of Senate Democrats polling poorly right now, Dodd is uniquely endangered.  Everyone else is certain to see their polling improve by next summer, some of them dramatically so.  But Dodd could be running in place.

And, sadly, I can't imagine him retiring.  It would shock me.  My entire sense is that he's convinced the polling isn't a good indicator of his chances.  And the Bunning comparison is a lousy one, it doesn't apply at all.  The national GOP never showed him any support this entire time, while Obama and Biden and others keep helping Dodd believe everyone has his back, so he'll win.  Yes we need him to drop out, but he won't.

And all that said, I have to say ARDem still isn't completely wrong in thinking that once voters get serious, they might not be willing to take any of the Republicans seriously.  Connecticut is liberal, and the Repubs' strongest is a 3-term former Congressman who voters fired just 4 years earlier.  This really is a state where polling can flip in the late summer/early fall.

But Dodd is still running uphill, even then.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Why fight when there are better alternatives
You forget to mention that between 2007 and now, Dodd moved his family to Iowa in a hairbrained Presidential run and took a sweetheart deals from Countrywide - and wasn't honest in disclosing it - while he was chair of the Banking Committee.  Why spend so many resources to save a damaged brand when a guy like Blumenthal or Chris Murphy could win in a walk?  That's not whimpering and complaining, that's holding a bad incumbent responsible for their screwups.  Republicans didn't do that for guys like Conrad Burns and Ted Stevens and they paid dearly for it.

The only reason why we're holding onto Dodd now is because we still need the financial regulation reform package passed, and changing the chair, or completely isolating him for that matter, would only submarine legislation that would be awfully nice to have on the list of Democratic accomlishments in 2010.

[ Parent ]
Definitely
Dodd probably needs to take one for the team. He could be salvagable but at what cost elsewhere? Shame cos he is a decent guy but he has largely brought it on himself.
[ Parent ]
You repeat something that's completely false here
Dodd was cleared of any wrong doing in the countrywide scandal.

http://politicalticker.blogs.c...

And yeah, Dodd did what politicians do-he ran for president.  Somehow I doubt that's going to drag him down.

Bottom line here, you put Dodd in there with Stevens and Burns-that's an unfair comparison.  He's not corrupt by any stretch nor is there any reason other than bad polls to diss on him.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
He was cleared of breaking the law and Senate Ethics
That doesn't mean that what he did wasn't at least ethically questionable, nor does it address that he wasn't forthcoming about it.  Politically that's still damaging.  You act as though the bad polls have nothing to do with those actions when they have everything to do with it.  And yes, his Presidential bid was idiotic because he pissed off his constituents by moving out of the state only to return with his tail between his legs.  More than one poll showed Connecticutans disapproving of his running for the White House and the way he handled it.

Face it, Dodd gave himself a bunch of self-inflicted wounds, which is why the Burns and Stevens (who himself was cleared of wrongdoing) comparison was made.  The party doesn't owe him anything for idiotically self-damaging his own brand, particularly when there are other figures in the state who could easily win the race without causing the kind of heartburn Dodd is creating.

[ Parent ]
Stevens was't cleared of wrongdoing
His verdict was overturned based on prosecutorial misconduct.  But that aside...

Those self inflicted wounds are more the results of people piling on and Dodd failing to explain them away.  Regardless, he's got a year to make up for it, Connecticuts a blue state, and Dodd's been a good senator.  I ain't bailing on him.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Dodd's polling hasn't improved
Over the past year even after he helped pass the credit card reform bill - so I don't buy the whole "he still has a year left" argument.  He has a low ceiling for improvement that no amount of money can save.
[ Parent ]
Yup, it's over
He must realize that.  
[ Parent ]
Nothing worth fighting for ever came easy.
[ Parent ]
I have him ranked as "no chance" now
If he runs, we lose. That's my position.  
[ Parent ]
But much easier
To replace him with someone who will vote the same. Politics is tough. Perception is everything.
[ Parent ]
Damn right!
You can be the best politician, the best at marketing, the most disciplined, the best fit for your state, the most hardworking, the one who will be the best Senator, etc.  But the job entails convincing one's state all of that, not actually being that.
[ Parent ]
Because we tried that with Corzine
and look how that turned out.

There isnt a single state in this country who wont vote for the opposing party they are usually used to voting against if the member of the party they are used to voting for sucks.  In every state, there are certainly enough independent voters to sway the election for any party.  Lingle in HI, Romney in MA, Henry in OK, Freudenthal in WY, etc.

Yes, my examples only prove voters are willing to vote against their usual party in non-federal races, but these are still the same voters regardless if the race is federal or state and it still doesnt make the chance of losing a Senate race worth it.

[ Parent ]
Romney is a bad example
Can't speak for HI/OK/WY but in Southern New England, we're much more sympathetic to Democrats in federal races than in gubernatorial races. Although I won't go so far as to say that Dodd's numbers will definitely rise back up into the safe zone once the election starts in earnest.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Quite frankly
I don't want to be pinning my hopes on "the voters will reject his opponent because he's too conservative". Especially when Dodd's numbers have, if anything, worsened since the start of the year.
[ Parent ]
Actually Dodd reminds me
of Conrad Burns in 2006.  For most of that year Burns looked gone, but at the end he barely lost.  And 2006 was a very bad year for the GOP, and Montana is less red IMO than Connecticut is blue.  

I think Dodd could well survive.

[ Parent ]
I'd call it a tossup
in this environment.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Heartening
One thing that's heartening about these retirements is that (KS-03 excepted) good, experienced, competitive candidates have immediately stepped up for Dems. If local politicos think they can win in their individual districts in 2010 to the point where they're willing to risk their political careers, that's a good sign. Besides, in an anti-incumbent cycle (as I bet 2010 will be) getting a fresh face could turn out to be a good thing.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
That's the difference
In 1994 countless Democratic retirements left seats virtually undefended with poor candidates running republican-leaning to moderate districts.  So far our recruiting is very good for the open seats.
[ Parent ]
Does that include the open seat in Louisiana?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
That one is probably gone
Dems could hold losses to 5 seats in 2010 and still lose LA-03.  I believe we have one or two good candidates running but it's still a very tough hold.
[ Parent ]
LA-3
I have it number three on my list of most vulnerable Democratic seats.  Behind only ID-1 and MD-1.  In time, it may supplant one, or both, of those.
[ Parent ]
Hmm
About right.  I'd easily put ID-01 first.  LA-03 does rank right there with MD-01.
[ Parent ]
I have it #1
 We could conceivably win ID-1 and MD-1 as it is possible that Bill Sali and Andy Harris could be the GOP nominees.  I can't see a way that we hold LA-3.
[ Parent ]
I'd put VA-05 ahead of MD-01
Besides the Andy Harris factor, Kratovil's voting record has been as moderately Democratic as Gilchrest was moderately Republican. Perriello, by contrast, has done little to give himself political cover in a district as conservative as his.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
The only thing that may save Perriello
is a third party teabagger candidate.   The Democrats should be encouraging these kinds of challenges throughout the country.
[ Parent ]
And how would you encourage teabaggers?
The Democrats should be encouraging these kinds of challenges throughout the country.

Would you actually give them money?
Would you pack their rallies?

[ Parent ]
I would give them money
if they ran as third party candidates.  Absolutely. $500 to a strong third party teabagger candidate in VA-5 would go much further in returning Tom Perriello than would $500 to Perriello himself.

There is a market for third party teabagger candidates, who could get the 5-15% to elect the Democrat with a plurality.  

[ Parent ]
Luckily he already exists
Bradley Rees awaits your contributions.
[ Parent ]
Well I've already given to Perriello
if this guy proves to be serious candidate, I probably will donate to him.
[ Parent ]
Living in NoVA, I've said all along Kratovil is safer than Perriello......
I really think Kratovil will survive if the GOP idiots renominate Harris.  Kratovil got no help from Obama last year, Obama got just 40% and performed the same as Gore in 2000 and only 4 points better than Kerry in 2004.  That contrasts with Perriello who won BECAUSE of coattails.  Meanwhile, Harris was perhaps the one GOPer who Kratovil could beat.  And I'm astounded those dumbasses might nominate him AGAIN!

I really think the Republicans will be kicking themselves for the long haul on MD-01.  Kratovil will survive and the Democratic monopoly controlling the state will redistrict him into safety and ensure 7 strong Democratic seats.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Even if Harris takes him out next year, I still think
that the legislature will draw Kratovil another shot.  
[ Parent ]
Even if it's a sane republican
Even if the GOP nominates a sane republican (not Harris) and he defeats Kratovil I think MD Dems will reconfigure the district to get either Kratovil or some other Dem elected in 2012.  Not even a moderate republican would be able to win the 1st if Dems are intent on making it a strongly democratic seat.  And judging by 2002 MD Dems have no qualms about gerrymandering.

The question isn't whether MD Dems draw 7 Dem seats but rather whether they are risky enough to try an 8-0 map.  I'd really rather see a solid 7-1 map and pack th repubs in a Bartlett district.

[ Parent ]
Also
I always had a sense that Kratovil is much more progressive than he has voted.  If given a better district I bet he would adjust and vote accordingly.
[ Parent ]
There's a bunch of local Dems down there
I'm not sure whose running, but the bench is deep enough (the State Senate President lives in the district) that someone will likely emerge.
[ Parent ]
It's Craig Pridemore
FWIW
You know, for all the talk of Dems in trouble...
I'm really not sure it's true.  Sure, we need to get our base motivated, if, for nothing else, to fix the mess that is the U.S. Senate, but when it comes down to actual seats and numbers I don't see much reason to panic.  I think we can hold his one-Wallace looks like a great candidate.  I'm even more impressed with Tanner in Tennessee.  You know, sometimes I think the majority of Democrats need prescription sedatives...

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Hah
I don't think prescribing sedatives to the majority of Democrats will help with turnout next November.
[ Parent ]
No, but it might help with all the bed wetting and nail biting
[ Parent ]
I'll sure want to sleep through the Republican Congress

[ Parent ]
Agreed
Incumbency counts for a lot.  I'll be surprised if we lose more than 20 in the House and 2 in the Senate.  The seats available for the GOP to pick-up simply aren't there in the Senate, they've got 3 legit shots at our seats while we've got 7-8 legit shots at their's.  As for the House, they've got a shit ton of work to find 40+ seats to win.

Yes, the tea bagger wing of the GOP is 100% motivated to vote in 2010.  But their 100% motivation doesnt mean that Dems 80% motivation is going to be our downfall.

[ Parent ]
They would need 43 pickups minimum
Since Dems are guaranteed to pickup DE-AL and LA-02 and at least one of these: PA-06 and IL-10.  Barring at minimum 10 more Dem retirements in swing/GOP-leaning districts it's impossible.  And I expect we'll see at least a few more republicans retire in districts we have a shot at winning.
[ Parent ]
"3 legit shots"?
I count a lot more than that: NV, CT, IL, AR, CO, DE, and arguably PA. The four GOP opens (NH, MO, KY, and OH) are our best chances and would have likely been clean sweeps last year, but I wouldn't put down money on any of them right now, most especially Kentucky.  
[ Parent ]
Illinois will be fine
Alexi leads.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

And interestingly Reid does better than of late.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

But Bennet trails Norton in Colorado.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

[ Parent ]
Well, ok, I spoke without really going through the races in my head
I say three because I only see NV, CT, and AR as ones we may actually lose.  IL wont be that tough once we get going and Obama is on the ground.  PA will never elect Toomey, we just need the campaign season to start up there for our numbers to improve.  DE will be a brawl but I dont really envision Castle winning.

The one race I dont know very much about is CO as the GOP field has been quite fluid, so I generally forget about that one.

So I guess what I should have said was I view three of them of even being winnable as the other ones I think wont be as tough once the campaign season starts.

[ Parent ]
Ya
For the most part just five Dem-held seats make me especially nervous.

Nevada
Connecticut - I don't see this as an imminent loss as most around here do with Dodd.  Even if Dodd stays in I'd give him a 50/50 shot.  
Delaware - Assuming Beau runs I think this one is Leans D, if he passes it's serious trouble.
Arkansas - I'd still give Lincoln at least a 50/50 shot as well, though I hope Halter primaries her.
Colorado - Right now I think this is the most likely Dem seat to flip.  Thanks Governor Ritter!

None of the seats can you really call "goners" and I'd still rank the GOP-held MO and OH seats as the two most likely to flip.

[ Parent ]
Bottom line is
Both sides have a similar number of seats to defend with similar margins within them. Everything depends on how the economy looks come election day.
[ Parent ]
And I am working under the assumption the GOP nominates their best candidates
Which nowadays is looking less and less likely.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Ayotte loses the NH primary or the best GOP Senate candidates losing in NV, DE, AR, IL, etc.  A teabagger winning any of their primaries in hotly contested Senate races compeltely changes the equation.
[ Parent ]
It comes down to health care and the economy
If health care passes in some form and the economy is improving, I see no more than 5 losses in the House outside the South and a pick up in the Senate.

If health care is not passed and the economy sucks, the GOP could pickup the House and make serious inroads in the Senate.

[ Parent ]
7-8 legit shots?
MO,OH,NH,KY and NC are all I'm seeing.  I'd love to think we're going to be competitive in FL and LA but I don't.
[ Parent ]
You're even
stretching it with NC.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Current environment yes
If and when jobs return the GOP could find themselves in trouble since they opposed everything that helped the turnaround. North Carolina would then be a barnburner. I don't see Melancon winning whatever happens though if things improve he might get close enough to force the GOP into shifting funds to protect Vitter.  
[ Parent ]
WA-03: Wallace to Jump in for Dems | 74 comments

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