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PA-Sen: Things Only Slightly Less Bad For Specter

by: Crisitunity

Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 12:59 PM EST


Rasmussen (12/8, likely voters, 10/13 in parentheses) (primary release):

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 42 (40)
Pat Toomey (R): 46 (45)
Some other: 4 (6)
Not sure: 8 (9)

Joe Sestak (D): 38 (38)
Pat Toomey (R): 44 (37)
Some other: 6 (6)
Not sure: 13 (19)
(MoE: ±3%)

Arlen Specter (D-inc): 48 (46)
Joe Sestak (D): 35 (42)
Other: 3 (2)
Not sure: 14 (10)
(MoE: ±5%)

Arlen Specter's numbers against ex-Rep. Pat Toomey haven't changed much from October, which isn't good news. What has changed here is that, unlike October, where Rep. Joe Sestak led Toomey by a point, Sestak now trails Toomey by 6, making it harder for Sestak to make the argument he'll perform better vis-a-vis Toomey. Specter's numbers are pretty locked-in, though, with only 6% of all voters having no opinion of him, compared with 19% for Toomey and 26% for Sestak.

On the Democratic primary front, the single-digit gap between Specter and Sestak from October (the smallest yet seen in the race) is back to 13. Specter actually has pretty good approvals among Dems, maybe thanks to his race to the left (66/25). Sestak is at 48/22, but that leaves 25% not sure, giving him a lot more of a ceiling for growth.

RaceTracker: PA-Sen
Crisitunity :: PA-Sen: Things Only Slightly Less Bad For Specter
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PA-Sen: Things Only Slightly Less Bad For Specter | 31 comments
I still think Sestak > Specter v. Toomey
Specter's favorables are indeed getting a bit less dreadful, but somehow, Toomey's managing to run a pretty effective and deceivingly-moderate campaign, and I suspect no matter who the Dem is, Toomey will at least garner 45%. Ultimately, however, I believe Specter's probably too unpopular with Independents and Republicans to garner re-election here, whereas I could see Sestak even appealing to some right-of-center voters.

Mark my words, however - if Toomey's winning this thing, then the climate in Fall 2010 would assumedly remain bleak for the Dems, and we'd likely see Rob Portman, John Kasich, Mark Kirk, among others, score victories too.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Same
Sestak probably has a better chance head to head against Toomey.  And ya, if this seat is lost it's likely Dems lose at least 4-5 net Senate seats.
[ Parent ]
Agree
I thihk Specter would lose to Toomey.  He's been around too long and has burned too many bridges.  I think Sestak would win.  His numbers against Toomey are within the MOE from the last.  Plus, it's Rasmussen.  Where, if you're a Republican, you're automatically a "likely voter."
[ Parent ]
I don't
Specter runs the ugliest most hideously nasty campaigns you can find.  He is an expert in running effective neagtive campaigns, and he would tear Toomey apart.
[ Parent ]
Illinois is more Democratic than Pennsylvania
Could easily lose here and not there.
[ Parent ]
If the political environment is the same in November
as it is now, we could lose both.  
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen and IL
New poll at 5pm.
[ Parent ]
Judging by their recent "polls"
I'll predict they give Kirk an 7-9 point lead.  Maybe double-digits.
[ Parent ]
Fisher is only down 2 in Ohio

[ Parent ]
Probably means he's up a few points
They have Brunner down 7.  Cue the Brunner trolls showing up anytime now.
[ Parent ]
Are Brunner trolls
pro-Brunner or anti-Brunner?

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Standard pro-Brunner response
Brunner is the only true progressive in the race!  She's the second coming of Jesus Christ!  Lee Fisher is a loser who couldn't be elected dogcatcher!  Brunner's bad fundraising is not her fault!  When she wins the nomination she will automatically have millions of dollars from the shadow organization known as "the establishment"!  It's not fair that she can't raise money because "the establishment" is keeping us from raising money. Waah!!
[ Parent ]
Wow
and there's more than one of these people?

Sounds like she should quit the race and start a cult.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Agree again
Knowing them, no lead for a Republican would be too big to surprise me.
[ Parent ]
Conjecturing from Rasmussen's recent work
I expect Kirk to have a statistically significant lead.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Is it really possible the stealth campaign will work
and someone as extreme as Toomey could win in Pennsylvania?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
It'll work for now
When Sestak and Specter are concentrating on each other. Toomey can walk between the clouds and act moderate while he isn't the center of attention. He will be once there is a nominee.
[ Parent ]
The thing is, Toomey doesn't need to veer right
Despite his "moderate" campaign, there's no way the former Prez of Club for Growth will garner a challenge from the right. He can remain fake-centrist and fake-moderate and fake-attractive-to-conservaDems all the way through election night.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Yes but a campaign
Can point out those things.
[ Parent ]
Why not?
Santorum won.
[ Parent ]
Yes, in 1994
A ham sandwich with an R next to their name could and did win in 1994.
[ Parent ]
Point
The point is, that being a right-wing nutjob does not mean you can't win in Pennsyvania if the circumstances are right.
[ Parent ]
Yup
PA next year could easily see a result as bad as VA this year. Worse actually, because the House is pretty close, and we could lose it.  
[ Parent ]
Oh come on
All of our potential statewide candidates for PA in 2010 are vastly better candidates than what we had running statewide in Virginia this year.  Toomey's numbers are peaking right now because noone other than right-wingers know his views.  Just look at how many undecides are in the latest Rasmussen poll.  Toomey is likely peaking right now and still can't crack 40%.  I'd give him an over/under of about 45% in 2010 against either Sestak or Specter.
[ Parent ]
Clockwork, that's what our Governor's chair flips like
It's every 8 years since the beginning of time. I expect Tom Corbett to be the next Governor.
[ Parent ]
Sounds like spurious data to me
There were Governorships and Senate seats in the deep south held by democrats for over 100 years consecutive.  That doesn't mean that trend will continue next election.
[ Parent ]
Trends are made to be broken

[ Parent ]
Question
After the polls that added up to 120 percent for Fox news, why are we still looking at Rasmussen?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
Because, though they lean Republican
And sometimes overwhelmingly so, they have a decent record.
[ Parent ]
Their final polls are very good
It's the other 99.9% of the election cycle they are way off.  I've learned to adjust their early election polls for inflation.  Not by as much as POS polls but almost as much.
[ Parent ]
Perhaps for the trends?
If they just have a model that oversamples Rs, the trends from poll to poll would still be relevant.
[ Parent ]
PA-Sen: Things Only Slightly Less Bad For Specter | 31 comments

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