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NV-03: Rep. Titus Tied with GOP Challenger in New M-D Poll

by: DavidNYC

Sun Dec 06, 2009 at 3:47 PM EST


Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (11/30-12/2, likely voters, no trendlines):

Dina Titus (D-inc): 40
Joe Heck (R): 40
Undecided: 20

Dina Titus (D-inc): 48
Rob Lauer (R): 32
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±6%)

This is one of the first media polls we've seen of a 2010 House race, and things don't look so hot: Rep. Dina Titus is tied against former state Sen. Joe Heck. Heck, you may recall, dropped down from the gubernatorial race to sub in for highly touted rich guy banker John Guedry. (Guedry claimed he bailed on the race for allegedly personal reasons - not long after it came out that his bank received $400 million in TARP funds while cutting him a fat bonus check.) Titus herself was a replacement candidate, joining the race last year after prosecutor Robert Daskas dropped out.

Heck doesn't have the primary field to himself, though. Real estate "investor" (is that like developer?) Rob Lauer looks to be running to Heck's right and has said he'll put $100,000 of his own money into the race. Heck's biggest sin appears to be his initial refusal to sign an anti-tax pledge (he later changed his mind); with the Republican base exceedingly intolerant of any apostasy these days, this may wind up hurting him. It's still very early (the primary is June 8th), but we'll see if Lauer can gain any traction among the teabagger set.

In the meantime, Titus has plenty to be concerned about. One bit of good news is that she leads among independents, 46-37. But the real story is among self-identified Democrats, where she only has a 68-9 margin. Heck, on the other hand, gets the support of Republicans at an 80-2 rate. The fact that 23% of the members of Titus's own party aren't sure that they want to support her speaks to broader concerns about the energy and excitement (or lack thereof) within the Democratic base. She'll need to consolidate those voters in order to secure a second term.

Mase-Dix also asked if voters approved of Titus's vote in favor of the healthcare reform bill. By a 41-47 margin, they said no. The fact that indies were opposed 38-50 yet she still leads them in the horserace is also a good sign - this vote isn't a dealbreaker. Dems also approve of healthcare reform by wide margins. The difficulty is that Republicans disapprove of it by even wider margins. Will touting healthcare reform therefore motivate the other side more than your own? It's a tough situation.

Furthermore, as Tim Sahd points out, the Las Vegas area has been especially hard-hit by the recession and the housing bust. This isn't helping Titus either. Obviously this is just one poll, and we're a long way off from election day. Still, she's in the bottom half of Frontline Dems when it comes to fundraising, and like a lot of members of Team Blue, she has a lot of hard work ahead of her.
DavidNYC :: NV-03: Rep. Titus Tied with GOP Challenger in New M-D Poll
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NV-03: Rep. Titus Tied with GOP Challenger in New M-D Poll | 66 comments
Mason Dixon polls are always slanted towards republicans
Their final poll for North Carolina senate
46% Dole
45% Hagan
Their final poll for Nevada President
47% Obama
43% McCain
Their final poll for NV-03
44% Titus
44% Porter
(Titus was always behind in all the other Mason Dixon Polls)

Now the actuall results
North Carolina Senate
53% Hagan
44% Dole
Nevada President
55% Obama
43% McCain
NV-03
47% Titus
42% Porter

and Mason Dixon has had many other misses in addition to these

Weird
I'd always heard Mason-Dixon was among the best.  Guess they were just way off in 2008.  

Didn't almost every poll have republicans doing better in Nevada than their actual performance?  I think Obama especially badly outperformed the final polls.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, I never saw a single poll
even coming close to the actual outcome in NV and NM.  Wonder how that all relates with the Hispanic vote coming out big for Obama and why they couldnt accurately poll their voting intentions.  Were Hispanics more likely to be late deciders last election?  Remember all the talk, especially after Hillary, that Hispanics wont vote for Obama?

And maybe real estate investor is a fancy way to say flipper.

[ Parent ]
What I think NV-2008 polling missed was Hispanic TURNOUT......
If the exit polls were right, then Hispanic vote share more than doubled from 2004 to 2008, from 7% to 15%, while white vote share dropped the exact same percentage amount, from 77% to 69%.

Missing a massive surge in Hispanic voting participation would explain all the polls' big error in missing Obama's blowout win.

Now, it's worth noting that exit polls are sometimes flat out wrong, occasionally even provably so.  And while the Nevada Hispanic vote share percentages can't be proven or disproven, one can often detect error through a "smell test" of using knowledge of a state and of voting patterns to determine if a particular statistic makes sense.  Such a massive vote share increase among Hispanics on the surface might not make sense...except that Obama's blowout win is extremely hard to explain without it, thus lending it credibility.

So on balance I think massive Hispanic voting is what explained NV-2008.

I suspect that next year while Hispanic vote share won't spike to close to Presidential level, it could again be higher than pollsters are calibrating, in which case Harry Reid is in stronger shape than people realize.  Public Pollicy Polling recently made just this comment on their blog.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You are right that Mason-Dixon
Has a Republican-leaning "house effect." But we're talking about maybe 2-3 points. Even if "in reality" Titus is up by a few, she's still well under 50.
[ Parent ]
You do have to admit they were WAY off in north carolina Senate
Dole led in every Mason Dixon poll including the one that came of the day of the election. Having Dole at 46% to Hagan's 45% when Hagan actually ended up winning 53% to 44% gives me a lot of doubt about the accuracy of Mason Dixon.
[ Parent ]
Sure
But that's just one fuckup. If they regularly had problems like that, I'd be more concerned. But I'm not willing to write a polling firm off on account of the occasional screwup.
[ Parent ]
From many observations, I've grown skeptical of Mason-Dixon......
I, for one, do see Mason-Dixon as having more than just the "occasional" fuckup.  I've observed over recent years that their trial heat numbers are off from actual results and off from other pollsters' contemporaneous results more than just occasionally.  I can't say exactly how often because I don't keep track statistically, but it's often enough that I hesitate to take Mason-Dixon at face value.

This doesn't mean they don't have good polls, because they do.  And probably a majority are very good.

But if a pollster is way off even as much as 40% of the time, that's too much for me to trust them absent corroboration.

And, the principle must be repeated that "House races are extremely difficult to poll."  You just always see a lot more bad polling in House races than statewide races, no matter who does it.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
You shouldn't.
From numbers guru Nate Silver, the last time he did a rating of all the polling firms (admittedly in May 2008), Mason-Dixon clocked in as one of the better ones.
[ Parent ]
That is an absolutely huge enthusiasm gap
Granted, we are measuring support, not actual turn out so it isnt as black and white sounding as "enthusiasm gap".

I kind of think it may be better for the country and for the Democratic party to sacrifice some conservadems and force them to vote with us.  They may lose their elections or have tougher ones but at the same time, the Democratic Party will actually have results to tout.  Lincoln may go down but that my save other incumbents like Titus, who needs Dems to coalesce around her.

This is of course more compounded by her district as a whole disapproving of her vote but her needing to have voted that way to win in 2010.  Yeah, its tricky....

Here lies the problem
I kind of think it may be better for the country and for the Democratic party to sacrifice some conservadems and force them to vote with us.  They may lose their elections or have tougher ones but at the same time, the Democratic Party will actually have results to tout.  Lincoln may go down but that my save other incumbents like Titus, who needs Dems to coalesce around her.

How are you going to force them to vote with us?  If it were that easy to do, I'd think that we would have done it already.  It is highly unlikely that they will be willing to sacrifice their career and vote with us.  

[ Parent ]
Well that's what makes my statement kind of shitty

[ Parent ]
I agree.
It's time to lay it on the line.  Let's use Lincoln as an example:

Blanche, you have two choices:

1) You participate in any way in a filibuster of HCR (among other bills), we strip you of your Agriculture Committee gavel and deny you DSCC money in 2010.  So, you would go into that election with a pissed off base while their base is fired up, an even more poisonous atmosphere because Obama failed on a critical goal.  Do the math.

2) You let a good bill pass.  You get DSCC money, keep your gavel, and may can smooth some things over with Democrats in Arkansas.  And maybe any resentment among swing voters will blow over in that time and things will turn around for Democrats.

Oh, and if you switch parties, remember that 1) they probably won't give you a gavel either and 2) you won't survive a Republican primary.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
She has very little political IQ
It's astonishing to me that she ever won election to the Senate to begin with.  She can't really be so dense as to think obstructing healthcare reform will help her in 2010... can she?
[ Parent ]
It's a common illness for too many Democrats.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
When will Democrasts
realize that not making a scene or making themselves important works out better for them in the long run.

We have two cases of this Baucus vs. Tester and Lincoln vs. Pryor where it is plainly evident.

Why does Lincoln need to make herself important? Why does she need to fillibuster it? Why can't just keep a low profile, vote for cloture and then vote against the bill? The come election time she can say: "I didn't like some provisions in the bill, and so I voted against it. But just because I didn't like everything in the bill, doesn't mean that I wanted to stall health care reform, when it is plain as daylight that Arkansas Families need reform."

I guarantee you that she would have an easier election then now. She is trying to look "moderate/conservative" to win some political points, but all she is doing is expose herself to get attacked.  

[ Parent ]
Or North Dakota
How about Dorgan and Conrad in ND?  Both have very similar voting records during their time in the Senate - moderates but not conservadems by any stretch.  Dorgan is up for re-election in 2010 yet has barely made a peep on HCR has always been assumed to be an aye vote on whatever bill goes to the floor.  Barring Hoevan getting in the race Dorgan is an easy re-elect.  

Conrad isn't even up for re-election in 2010 yet has very publicly tried to sabotage HCR by pushing for bizarre co-op ideas, etc.  I've not seen a poll but I'll almsot guarantee Conrad's approvals have dropped by a lot and Dorgan's have not.

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't be so sure
Quinnipiac polled Connecticut, and what we got was Dodd's approval falling and Lieberman's going up and that's in a blue state.  
[ Parent ]
That's a bit harsh - Blanche has plenty of political IQ
Lincoln won her first election to the House in '92 - at age 32.

Our assumption is that political conditions in Arkansas have changed - that base voters are key to the 2010 election.

While I believe and agree with this premise, this has not been proven.

All we have are polls suggesting that our base is less enthusiastic.

In '94, there were a number of Ds who voted with President Clinton who did not survive. If that's the lesson, then it is (sadly) politically correct to obstruct HCR.

[ Parent ]
Public option is popular with both dems and independents in AR
Considering the public option is the most "controversial" part of HCR I don't think it's a stretch to assume overall HCR is even more popular than the public option in  Arkansas.

As this poll suggests Lincoln's nonstop attacks against HCR ONLY help her with republicans (who won't vote for her anyway) and hurt her with democrats and independents.  It's not the base that diagrees with her right-wing take on HCR, it's the vast majority of people who have any chance of voting for her.

http://www.dailykos.com/statep...

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans?

           FAVOR OPPOSE NOT SURE
ALL           53    41      6
DEMOCRATS     82    13      5
REPUBLICANS   18    79      3
INDEPENDENTS  52    38     10

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose creating a government-administered health insurance option that anyone can purchase to compete with private insurance plans? (Democratic Primary Voters Only)

      FAVOR OPPOSE NOT SURE
ALL      84    10      6


[ Parent ]
Thank you, keep it with data, lose the name calling
I believe Lincoln is wrong on HCR, but to say she has "little political IQ" is going too far.

While I believe it is necessary to excite the base in this election, I do not know of an election where Ds have increased base turnout based on legislative accomplishments.

Therefore, I acknowledge that the strategy of "exciting the base" is unproven.

Unfortunately, I would not be shocked if President Obama campaigns for Lincoln in '10, even if she votes against HCR.

[ Parent ]
It's not name calling
When a politician does something which obviously hurts their chances of getting re-elected, which also happens to be the morally bankrupt position, you can't help but question their political IQ.  Blanche is selling out almost every potential voter (both dems and independents) by perpetuating GOP talking points and outright lies on healthcare reform.

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com...

Blanche's latest geatest lie:


"I have the fear that it will create a long-term risk for taxpayers. And I think that comes on the heels of this orgy we've had of government spending -- whether it's bailouts for multiple people, multiple groups. I think it's critical for us to look at how fiscally responsible we can be on behalf of taxpayers."

[ Parent ]
As i stated, she was first elected at 32
Have to have a barrel of political IQ to do that, especially as a woman in Arkansas.

If she were a freshman, elected for the first time in '04, then I think you'd be correct to question her political IQ.

But remember, this is the state of Bill Clinton, the master triangulator.

If our assumptions on "base" turnout are wrong, her skepticism of HCR is the right political (and the wrong moral) thing for her to do.

Unless and until Lincoln gets challenged on the left, by someone explicitly in favor of HCR, I don't see her doing anything more than not joining an attempt to fillibuster.

[ Parent ]
Does anyone know of an election where Ds have increased base turnout
based on legislative accomplishments?

'66 is not a good omen, but as it was bounceback after '64, it's not the best example.

[ Parent ]
Ahh
Blanche, but you did vote for the bailout remember right?  

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
She remembers it
She's just a habitual liar.  She's making up new lies to cover up for old lies as she goes along.
[ Parent ]
If he wants to see Lincoln defeated
he would do this:

Unfortunately, I would not be shocked if President Obama campaigns for Lincoln in '10, even if she votes against HCR.

And this:

While I believe it is necessary to excite the base in this election, I do not know of an election where Ds have increased base turnout based on legislative accomplishments.

Try 1934, 1936, 1962, and 1964.  1996 and 1998 was not due to accomplishments but GOP overreach.

The lesson for the Dems is, get some accomplishments done, and run against teabaggers and George W Bush.  

[ Parent ]
Question on '34, '36, '62, and '64
Do you have any data which shows increased [b]base[/b] turnout in those elections?

Second, African Americans are part of the base. As stated in a previous comment, they are currently [b]not[/b] excited about the '10 election.

I believe that President Obama's support would help turn out African Americans for Lincoln. I think opposition enthusiasm is already maxed out, so I don't believe there would be any [i]additional[/i] wingnut backlash if he campaigned. But I don't have data in that area.

[ Parent ]
Getting out the base isn't enough to save Lincoln
unless Lincoln can also win conservative rural Democrats who hate Obama more than they hate Osama.  

Obama's presence may turnout blacks (only 16%) but would guarantee that conservative Dems would go against Lincoln.

[ Parent ]
If "getting the base" isn't enough for Lincoln
Then there's no point (politically) in her voting for HCR.

(I believe rural Ds also support HCR - and are part of the "base" in Arkansas. But I do not know if a vote for HCR would be enough to energize them to vote.)

[ Parent ]
It's not so much energizing the base
It's deenergizing most democrats AND independents.  A vote against HCR severely deenergizes all potential Lincoln voters.  The only people who are hellbent opposed to HCR are the right-wing republicans/teabaggers.  And those people will not vote for Lincoln regardless of how she votes.

I ask again... what demographic does opposing/publicly lying about HCR help her with?  That's what I am trying to figure out here.  

I have serious doubts there is a mass of potential democratic/left-leaning independents who are pumped about voting for Lincoln next year because she is actively trying to destroy HCR.

[ Parent ]
While I believe HCR is a cornerstone issue for progressives
My guess is that it's "just" one issue for moderates and most independents.

And as Lincoln is a triangulator, she's probably assuming that AR liberals will "come home," even if grudgingly, in '10.

[ Parent ]
Not really
Almost everyone has a VERY strong feeling on this issue.  Even moderates and independents care far more about this issue than most other issues.  

Yes, the overall health of the economy is the overarching concern of everyone, even most progressives, but HCR ranks very high up there as well.

[ Parent ]
But will it make a difference in how they vote?
It's one thing to show polls with the popularity of one position.

It's something more to show that it's a "single issue" which makes a real difference in how blocs of voters choose a candidate.

If nobody in the Arkansas Senate race supports HCR, then why should Lincoln's lack of support of HCR hurt her - w/r/t number of votes

and if so - how much?

(So what we need is a poll with a question such as "If Lincoln votes against HCR, will that make the difference on whether you vote for her" with splits by lib, mod, and cons leanings - none of this "more or less likely to vote for him/her" stuff.)

[ Parent ]
Here's a few recent polls
Health care is consistently ranked the 2nd or 3rd most important issue after the economy.  And considering the health care system in bankrupting the economy and most people realize it the two are more or less intertwined.

http://pollingreport.com/prior...

CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. Oct. 30-Nov. 1, 2009. N=1,018 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"Which of the following is the most important issue facing the country today: [see below]?" Options rotated
10/30 - 11/1/09

The economy 47
Health care 17
The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 12
The federal budget deficit 11
Education 6
Terrorism 4
Energy policy 2
Other (vol.) 1

USA Today/Gallup Poll. Oct. 16-19, 2009. N=1,521 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"Which of the following should be Barack Obama's top priority as president: the economy, health care, the situations in Iraq and Afghanistan, energy, the federal budget deficit, or something else?" Options rotated
11/09: "Now, looking ahead to next January when Barack Obama will take office as president -- Which of the following should be Barack Obama's top priority as president . . . ?"

Economy 41      
Iraq and Afghanistan 18
Health care 17      
Federal deficit 14        
Energy 2      
Something else 2      
All (vol.) 4    

 

If nobody in the Arkansas Senate race supports HCR, then why should Lincoln's lack of support of HCR hurt her - w/r/t number of votes

and if so - how much?

I'd imagine it hurts her because more voters will see no difference between Lincoln and her opponents.  Arkansas has a lot of populists.  If they see her as a puppet of the insurance companies/corporate masters they probably won't care whether it's her or a republican who gets elected to the Senate.

(So what we need is a poll with a question such as "If Lincoln votes against HCR, will that make the difference on whether you vote for her" with splits by lib, mod, and cons leanings - none of this "more or less likely to vote for him/her" stuff.)  

Great question.  I think I'll send that to Kos.  He should include that in the next R2K poll on Arkansas he commissions.


[ Parent ]
Um
Although you might not like it, conservative rural Democrats are part of the base of the Democratic Party. Just as much as liberal urban Democrats.

Now, since you enjoy making all of these statements like "conservative rural Democrats who hate Obama more than they hate Osama.   "

Care to back that up with anything? Where's your proof?

You have some deep-seeded resentment towards conservative rural Democrats. It's actually quite disturbing.

[ Parent ]
Nonsense
Rural "conservative" (i.e. bigoted) Democrats are few in number and not loyal when it matters. They can go beg the Republicans for farm welfare as far as I'm concerned. See how that works out.  
[ Parent ]
I do not accept that stereotype of Rural "conservative' Democrats
And having lived among them, I do not believe it either.

(However, I do agree with the statement "There are many rural 'conservative' voters who are bigoted." Furthermore, I believe that most such voters are Republicans, at least in national elections.)

[ Parent ]
Yes they are
"There are many rural 'conservative' voters who are bigoted." Furthermore, I believe that most such voters are Republicans, at least in national elections.)

80-90% of Southern rural whites voted for McCain.  As I stand by my previous statement, they would prefer bin Laden to Obama.

[ Parent ]
And do you have any polling data to back that up?
w/r/t your assertion that such voters would prefer bin Laden to Obama -

(btw, when I say "many," I mean it in the sense of 1 bigoted voter being "too many")

[ Parent ]
And here is MY huge problem with quitters like Lincoln and Landrieu
When you phrase the public option in the proper way like the poll does, voila, the public supports it!  When you simply ask people, do you support the HCR Dems are pushing through Congress, people dont support it because the entire narrative has been hijacked by GOP talking points.

Lincoln and Landreiu are simply quitters.  They spend all of their time spouting off GOP talking points rather than actually trying to sell the damn bill to their constituents.  Sure, as an elected official you need to listen to your constituents and follow their policy preferences.  But it is YOUR job to educate your constituents about the legislation.

The American electorate has been razzle dazzled a la Billy Flynn and it was Lincoln's job, as their Senator, to keep the whole thing in focus.  She lost the messaging and allowed her constituents to think HCR is going to kill grandma.  I wont go as far to say she deserves to lose, but to anyone who wants to be in politics, learn the Lincoln lesson.  Do not fuck up the balance of being a representative; you need to represent your constituents but also recognize, they chose YOU to be their Senator and depend on you to tell them whats going on.  When the other side of the aisle is attacking a piece of legislation you want to support, it sure doesnt help to parrot exactly what they are saying.  If the people of AR still dont want you to vote for HCR after you've actually tried to build support for it, then do what you need to do.

But the fact that Lincoln and Landrieu quit on us like this is just fucking pathetic.  To me, it says they are Senators because they like being politicians, not because they actually want to work for a cause.

Jesus christ where is Wellstone when you need him!

[ Parent ]
and yet the good people of Arkansas
oppose the very bill that brings them a public option.

[ Parent ]
As I've said before they don't really oppose the bill
they oppose having a black as President, and thus anything that he does.
[ Parent ]
Wow
Care to actually back up any of these statements?
[ Parent ]
They oppose the bill in Arkansas?
Do you have a poll for that?
[ Parent ]
It's a messaging problem.
Clinton had the same problem with his bill.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
EXACTLY!!!!
We lost the narrative when the town hall freak outs started happening.  After that, we completely lost our mojo.  Its why I suspect the Obama admin was trying to rush the whole thing along, so people wouldnt get fed a bunch of god damned lies.
[ Parent ]
obstructing health care reform
She's obstructing health care reform, not because it will help her get reelected, but because the insurance lobbyists are paying her to do it.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
This is also a case
Of the Reid name dragging down Democrats down-ballot.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13
Que
the ads linking every Democrat running in Nevada to Harry Reid in 2010.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
This is a swing district
and the Dem 68-9 numbers tell all there is to know.  Those voters are not going to the Republican in the end.  The only question is they turn out, and the national debate of the next year will determine that.

One other note, the Tim Sahd article is way off base.  Las Vegas has been relatively un-hit by the recession.  Hotel occupancy is down less than 7%.  The economy doesn't help anyone, but it is less an issue here than in the country in general.

Also Heck is a good candidate.  Notice how she crushes the weaker candidate.

I'm not particularly worried about a district like this.  She won by FIVE points last time (and the cycle before that Porter won by ONE point).

This race is tied because it should be, and it has more or less nothing to do with 2009 issues.  This poll could have been taken in 2006 or 2007.  It's a swing district.

Vegas un-hit? Whaaat???
Then I guess articles like this and this are really bogus.

My blog
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Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Read the dates
One of those articles is nearly two years old, the other is a year old.

And yes, it is relatively doing better with the recession than elsewhere.  The active word is "relatively".  No speed of light growth now, but business is down a relatively modest amount.  There are quite a lot of businesses in this country that would be ecstatic to be down just 7%.

[ Parent ]
Then do you have a source?
A google search turned up nothing for me.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Nevada has been hit pretty hard!
Las Vegas has been hit pretty hard housing-price-wise, with the largest declines in the Case-Shiller index: http://blogs.barrons.com/stock...

Nevada also has an unemployment rate of 13.0%, the 2nd highest in the country after Michigan. In January 2007, Nevada had an unemployment rate 0.2% below the national average; it is now 3.0% above.

[ Parent ]
Thank you.
I suspected that Nevada was still doing pretty bad even now, unless the "down less than 7%" is really down from last year, when their economy took a tremendous hit.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Hotel Occupancy
Is not the same as the overall economy.  Plus, in Vegas, 7% capacity loss is a huge blow as hotels usually need to be filled at a high rate (around 85-90% IIRC) to be profitable, not to mention all the new construction that took place during the boom has even further depressed the market.  Plus, Nevada still has the highest forclosure rate in the nation, the worst of which is smack dab in Titus' district.  It's improved, but not by much.

http://www.kxnt.com/Nevada-For...

[ Parent ]
What? No Tekzilla "this seat is lost" comment?
It's been over 8 hours since this was put up. Surely the sky must have fallen by now...surely...

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
I wish...
Democrat voters would realize that not voting, or voting for a republican because the "democrats" haven't delivered miracles is not going to improve the country.
I agree with the underlying theme of what you are saying
But passing HCR and having SIXTY votes to accomplish it with is hardly a miracle.  It's common sense.  I don't like the idea of left-leaning voters staying home or voting republican just to send a message to democrats, but I can understand their frustration.
[ Parent ]
I just cant imagine that many people staying home
because we didnt pass a public option.  The mass amount of people who many think may not show up probably wont show up regardless.  The people who truly care about their being a public option are the same people who vote ever year, regardless.  And it is a lot of talk but I doubt a lot of action.
[ Parent ]
I can. If it's part of a pattern.
If you add HCR to ENDA to EFCA to a host of other things.  And if Obama and the Democrats fail on HCR (not to mention those other things) the national climate will probably get far worse.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Not really the public option
I've said before that I don't think many people stay home over that.  But people do notice the Senators who try to water down or destroy the overall HCR bill.  
[ Parent ]
It's not only that, it's the economy
But the lack of affordable health care, while not as big a deal as unemployment, is a big part of people's personal economics.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
No surprise
She won with under 50% and Heck is a strong recruit. I agree with those exasperated with Dems lack of motivation. While I understand disappointment most could do with a dose of political reality. These are tough issues and even with big majorities it isn't so easy to get exactly what you want especially when the majority is built on representation of places hostile to your agenda. It is very foolish to believe not voting at all helps you in any shape or form. It is the ultimate cutting your nose off to be spiteful.
I think your first 5 words are key......
She won with under 50%.  That says it all.  Why wouldn't she be under 50% now?

But I'm still holding ground on my longtime view that the timing of the "political environment" couldn't be worse for Republicans.  I still posit that the economy will be visibly better by next summer and a health care reform bill will have been long since signed into law.  And those two things, in that order of importance, will calm the savage voting beast and level the playing field much more than pundits right now are shortsightedly predicting.

We'll still lose some House seats, and we might lose on net a Senate seat or two, but we still might even end up gaining a Senate seat or two when the dust settles.

I'm still not worried.  And the latest unemployment news for November actually has me more confident than any previous time.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
NV-03: Rep. Titus Tied with GOP Challenger in New M-D Poll | 66 comments

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