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SSP Daily Digest: 12/2

by: Crisitunity

Wed Dec 02, 2009 at 7:39 PM EST


Election results: There was a grab-bag of southern state runoffs and special elections last night; the main event was the Atlanta mayor's race. It looks like Democratic African-American ex-state Sen. Kasim Reed defeated self-proclaimed-independent white city councilor Mary Norwood, but the margin is only around 620 votes (out of 83,000 cast). Reed has declared victory, but Norwood is talking recount.

There were also four legislative runoffs in Georgia; the only one that wasn't an intra-party affair was in HD-141 (a previously Dem-held seat) where independent Rusty Kidd easily beat Democrat Russell Black. Kidd is staying mum on which party he'll caucus with, although he's the son of a prominent long-time Democratic legislator (Culver Kidd) and a stem-cell-research supporter. In HD-58 in Atlanta, community organizer Simone Bell becomes the first LGBT African-American elected to Georgia's legislature. And in Tennessee, Republican state Rep. Brian Kelsey was elected easily in the vacant SD-31 in heavily Republican Memphis suburbs; he takes over for GOPer Paul Stanley, who resigned in disgrace after a sex scandal.

IL-Sen: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman is up with the first TV ad in the fast-approaching Senate primary. Hoffman lacks name rec, but uses the ad to highlight his corruption-fighting past (and take some implicit hits at Alexi Giannoulias's banking background).

NY-Sen-B: You may remember Michael Balboni, who was pried out of his Dem-leaning Long Island state Senate seat by Eliot Spitzer to become the state's Homeland Security chief and paving the way for Democratic takeover of the state Senate. Now he's reportedly considering a run against Kirsten Gillibrand for Senate, as the New York GOP starts casting its net wider for somebody.

UT-Sen: A Deseret News poll has bad news for Bob Bennett, in the form of perilous re-elects: only 27% support his re-election, and 58% want someone new. Nevertheless, he has a big edge over the field of nobodies circling around him: he polls at 31%, with Democrat Sam Granato at 14, followed by a gaggle of right-wingers: Cherilyn Eagar at 5, Tim Bridgewater and Fred Lampropoulos at 4, Mike Lee at 3, and James Williams at 1. With the Republican nomination potentially to be decided at the state convention -- dominated by hard-right activists -- though, these numbers don't help to project much of anything for next year.

IA-Gov: Chet Culver's campaign manager Andrew Roos is out, as Culver stares at double-digit deficits against ex-Gov. Terry Branstad. Culver mangled his Shakesperean shrug-off, saying it's "much to do about nothing."

TX-Gov: Press releases are already going out saying that Houston mayor Bill White is announcing something big on Friday, and now leaks are confirming what most people have suspected, that he's going to go ahead and jump into the Democratic field in the governor's race.

FL-10: Sorta-moderate GOP Rep. Bill Young has another challenger -- this time from the right. Eric Forcade says he got interested in politics from participating in tea parties and the 9/12 movement. (In case you're having trouble remembering where all these random teabagger primary challenges are popping up, Think Progress has a handy scorecard of all of them.)

IL-10: Little-known rich guy Dick Green dipped into his self-provided funds and laid out $100K for a big TV ad buy, introducing himself to Republican voters in the 10th. While Democrat Julie Hamos already has hit the airwaves, Green beats out fellow GOPers Beth Coulson and Bob Dold.

KY-03: Rep. John Yarmuth may not exactly be intimidated by the first Republican to show up to go against him in Kentucky's lone Dem-leaning district. Jeffrey Reetz has never run for office before, but he does own 25 Pizza Hut franchises.

MD-04: Rep. Donna Edwards, who got into office via primary challenge, is facing a big challenge of her own. Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey has formed an exploratory committee to go up against Edwards for the Democratic nod. Ivey worked as a senior congressional staffer in the 1980s and 1990s; although he expresses enthusiasm for moving the "progressive agenda forward," he's probably running at least a bit to the right of Edwards, one of the leftmost House members.

MN-01: This marks the third entry to the field against Democratic Rep. Tim Walz in about one week's time. Today, it's Republican Jim Hagedorn, a former congressional staffer and a one-time blogger under the name "Mr. Conservative." He joins ex-state Rep. Allen Quist and state Rep. Randy Demmer, although the party seems to still be watching what more moderate state Sen. Julie Rosen does.

PA-11: Hazleton mayor and 2008 loser Lou Barletta is doing his best to stay in the news, announcing that he'll make another announcement on Dec. 9 as to whether or not he'll seek a third faceoff against Democratic Rep. Paul Kanjorski.

TN-08, TN-Gov: In case you missed our late update last night, Democratic state Sen. Roy Herron got out of the governor's race where he was something of a longshot, and into the now-open TN-08 field, where he's probably the favorite to get the Democratic nod. (Although open seats are theoretically harder to defend, Herron's long district presence and lack of ties to Washington could conceivably help him to perform better next year than long-time Beltway creature Tanner might have.) Party officials (and outgoing Rep. John Tanner too, although he declined to endorse anyone yet) are moving quickly to keep a contested primary from happening, although state Rep. Philip Pinion has also been publicly letting his interest be known. Also, in discussing his sudden retirement decision, Tanner claims he wasn't scared off by the fundraising success of out-of-nowhere GOP challenger Stephen Fincher; he'd already been eyeing retirement and the challenge "got his competitive juices flowing" but finally decided to call it a career.

UT-02: Morgan Philpot, a former Republican state Representative, is considering a race against Rep. Jim Matheson next year. Philpot is currently the state party's vice-chair, so he would bring some insider backing to the race.

NY-Comptroller (pdf): With all the sudden talk of recruiting NYC comptroller William Thompson onto the Cuomo "ticket" to wage a primary fight against current state comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, it's worth going back and noting that the most recent Siena poll from a few weeks ago actually polled this permutation. They found a 31-31 tie in the Clash of the Comptrollers. They also found that both would beat Republican John Faso in the general.

TX-Comptroller: In fact, talking about comptrollers is so much fun I'm going to keep doing it. Ex-Rep. Nick Lampson, who couldn't hold down dark-red TX-22 last year, says that's he's looking into next year's comptroller's race, which would bring top-tier Democratic talent to another statewide race in Texas.

NY-St. Sen.: After a lot of optimistic predictions earlier in the day, the actual vote on gay marriage in the New York Senate today kind of fizzled. Eight Democrats voted against and no Republicans crossed the aisle, leaving it to go down 24-38. Ironically, Marist came out with a poll today showing public support in favor of gay marriage, 51-42.

CA-St. Ass.: However, in the one-step-forward, one-step-back fight for LGBT equality, California looks like it's poised to have its first-ever gay Assembly Speaker. Los Angeles Assemblyman John Perez apparently has the votes locked up to take over as Speaker from Karen Bass, who's termed out.

Nassau Co. Exec: Two-term incumbent Tom Suozzi, who was down by 377 votes to Republican challenger Ed Mangano after a recount, decided to concede rather than pursue legal options. Suozzi, who'd be considered a likely AG candidate next year, says he'll be back in politics but he can't "imagine it would be anytime soon."

Mayors: It looks like a premature end of the line for Baltimore mayor Sheila Dixon, who was just convicted of misdemeanor embezzlement for helping herself to $1,500 worth of gift cards that had been donated to give to poor families. Dixon is supposed to be suspended from office, but post-trial motions and a possible appeal may push that until later. City Council President Stephanie Rawlings-Blake is in line to succeed her.

DGA: There's new leadership at the Democratic Governor's Association, as fast-rising Delaware governor Jack Markell (who's been in office only for a year) takes over from Montana's Brian Schweitzer. One of the DGA's first orders of business as they prep for 2010: committing $1 million to the GOP Accountability Project, whose first ad target is Florida Republican candidate Bill McCollum.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 12/2
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Having posted this comment not long before this thread was created, I'll link it here.
http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Don't know how big it'll be electorally (although there are races that can be impacted) or legislatively, but it's certainly huge news.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


No way could Balboni make it through a GOP Primary...
He's unequivocally pro-gay marriage and, if I'm not mistaken, holds relatively-moderate views on most other domestic and foreign policy issues.

On a related note, I've seen an awful lot of KT McFarland on FOX News lately. Could she be prepping for another Senate run? (She lost the '06 Primary to John Spencer)

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast


Rusty Kidd
While he is the son of a former Democratic state legislator, his sister served in Congress as a Republican.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

TX-Comptroller: Lampson
I wish he would have run for Senate last time instead of trying to hold that deep red district, but it is nice to see another prominent Dem running statewide.

As his former constituent
I'm glad he ran for re-election. Lampson is not a very good campaigner in regards to either getting earned media, television ads (he never attacks), and his field campaign didn't start until August. Noriega did better than Nick could have. Trust me on this one.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Same here
Lampson was in an impossible situation running for re-election to a district that conservative.  I give him credit for keeping it within 10 points.  And I doubt Lampson would have come closer than Noriega did in the Senate race.

[ Parent ]
NY-St Sen: Foley and Valesky
Does anyone know if they might be vulnerable? I'm happy to give them money for actually having some balls.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


No, neither are particularly vulnerable


[ Parent ]
Damn
That Hoffman ad is good. The no music grabs your attention.

I am backing Hoffman in this race.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Hoffman
From skimming his website he looks pretty good, just as liberal as Giannoulas but without the sleaze. If I had to vote today I'd probably choose him but I don't even know if I'm voting in Illinois yet. Does anyone know the deadline for registering to vote in the primary?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
Yikes
I read the comments before he main post.  Thought you were talking about a different (much scarier) Hoffman at first...

[ Parent ]
To our knowledge
This Hoffman doesn't cite Glenn Beck as a mentor. Hopefully.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Great that Markell is DGA head
He's young, progressive, and a great fundraiser.  Even though he comes from tiny Delaware he could be a strong national politician one day.  The dude wrote a 100 page policy book when he ran for Governor about how he would specifically improve the state.  That's more than impressive.

Is the position...
term-limited?  Why is Schweitzer leaving the chairmanship at this point in time, when his term isn't up until 2012?  (Schweitzer cannot run for re-election, as Montana doesn't allow someone to serve as governor for more than 8 years in a 16-year span.  But I guess he could run again in 2016.)

[ Parent ]
I'll bet he has other aims
He'd be a great successor to Baucus in 2014 who might be in his last term anyway.  Either that or President in 2016.

[ Parent ]
It's to let someone new for another cycle
is probably the most likely reason why.  Kinda like how the DSCC tends to change leadership for every cycle.

[ Parent ]
Is that paper available on the web?
Sounds interesting.  I'd really like to read it.

[ Parent ]
Here ya go
http://www.scribd.com/doc/3912...

His campaign website is down but I found a copy of the book, Blueprint for a Better Delaware, here.  I'm not sure if this is the most up to date version though.


[ Parent ]
Thanks
Good stuff.  He even has a sensible plan for universal health care in Delaware.

[ Parent ]
Open Question
Texas primary is coming up soon, so I need a decision on this one. I need to decide where to be registered to vote (and caucus).

Current Registration: Galveston County, TX-22. There are several county dems who will be seeking re-election that may have close races where every vote counts. My parents still live here and I come in from time to time.

Optional New Registration: Denton County, TX-26. There are 0 incumbent democrats, and no one is winning election to Denton county in 2010. But I live here mostly now and spend most of my time here meaning voting will be easier and I will be able to caucus.

Where should I register to vote?

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


Absentee?
Can't you just vote absentee in the heavily contested district or is Texas strict on that?

[ Parent ]
I could do absentee
But when I did that in 2006 when Lampson actually won my ballot was rejected cause my "signatures did not match." Yes, it is a Democratic county Clerk. Also, I don't get to caucus if I'm absentee meaning no chance at being a delegate to state convention. Remember, Texas Two Step.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
Same problem
I don't know whether to vote against Mark Kirk and his faux centrism in Illinois, or participate in one of the few RI elections that (probably) won't end in the Democrat winning by a landslide.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/


[ Parent ]
IA-Gov
I still have no idea what happened with Roos. Lots of rumors. My best guess is either he didn't click with Culver or there were "creative differences" over campaign strategy, but that is a total guess.  

IL-10
Has Dan Seals said he won't be running for this seat again?  And even if he did, after losing twice, is he the right candidate for this district?

Seals is in the race
Last I remember, his camp was touting an internal poll that showed him with a lead over Hamos.


Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I'm sympathetic to Seals
But I think it is Hamos' turn. Sorry, Dan.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
I agree, I hope Seals looses the primary, he's had his chance (twice)


[ Parent ]
Seals
I too am a strong believer in Seals and wish he was in congress today. But somehow he lost by a worse margin in 2008 than in 2006 when Obama won the district by at least 20% points. ANyone who can lose even with those coattails in such a swing district should not be the nominee again. Hamos is an elected state representative with a strong base and should be able to win the district come 2010.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Seriously
Seals had two of the best democratic years in memory to run in 2006 and 2008 and lost by a good margin both times.  Even Obama on the ballot couldn't pull him across the line last year.  Time to nominate someone else.

[ Parent ]
Not true
I don't know how many times I've had to debunk the "Seals lost by a worse margin" myth.

But here goes again.

2008:
Mark Kirk (R) 52.6%
Daniel Seals (D) 47.4%

2006:
Mark Kirk (R) 53.4%
Daniel Seals (D) 46.6%


[ Parent ]
Question
Were there totals or a typo or something somewhere that showed him losing by like 10%.  I believe you, but I seem to remember that happening.  I know that was the case with Ketner's race in South Carolina.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Yes
I remember that too.  Multiple new sources had Seals losing 55-45%.  I believe the early count was off ofr something.

[ Parent ]
Okay. Glad I wasn't the only one.
That's probably where the Seals lost big thing came from.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
SOrry
SOrry about that but for some reason I do remember reading and seeing results from numerous sites showing results with Kirk with 55% of the vote and Seals with 43-44%. But still this doesnt change my opinion that Seals should not bo our nominee.  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
I don't get this belief
that just because Seals decided to go up against a formerly invincible, popular moderate Republican a couple times already, that means he's not allowed to run now that the seat is open and basically anyone we nominate is favored to take this seat?

Screw this "turn" business.  Seals was the first guy to actually try to win this seat for us, and the fact that he kept it close to a guy as popular as Kirk is evidence enough to me that Seals deserves another try.  There will be a contested primary of course, I'm not saying anyone should drop out.  But I suspect in the end Seals will dispatch them as easily as he did that Footlik guy back in 2008.  And Seals will then win the seat by double digits and we'll all look very foolish for harping over whether Seals actually improved in 2008 or not.


[ Parent ]
Kirk was not invincible in IL-10
Not even close.  There were many popular republicans in democratic-leaning districts who lost in 2006 and 2008.

[ Parent ]
I said formerly invincible
meaning that before 2006, Kirk would regularly win in landslides.  Thus no strong candidates wanted to take him on.

But Seals did, and came relatively close to winning in 2006 and 2008.  I just don't see how that disqualifies him from trying again in 2010, especially since the seat is open and as we know Obama won the district by over 20%, so it's basically a sure pickup.


[ Parent ]
NY State Senate, UT-Senate
It's very disappointing that no Republicans were willing to vote for same sex marriage in New York. Time to defeat as many of them as possible.

As for Utah, just what do they have against Bennett? Is any of the opposition due to his long membership in the Banking Committee?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


Not wingnutty enough
Remember, this is the state that got rid of right-winger Chris Cannon in favor of far-right-winger Jason Chaffetz.

[ Parent ]
And oddly enough
Chaffetz is taking an isolationist position on the Afghanistan surge. Im sure that wont make many neo-cons there happy (and thats not a dig at them as i agree with Obama's strategy)

[ Parent ]
It'll please the Paulites, though
Ron Paul did well in the mountain states, as I recall. Anyone know his percentages in the Utah primaries (Utah does have primaries, isn't that right?)?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
The western Paulites seem to be those who arent Mormon, though
The Mormons seem more to be the religious fundamentalist type. Although Rep. Flake in AZ, a Mormon, is from the libertarian wing of the GOP although still solidly pro-life for instance.  

[ Parent ]
Paul is also opposed to abortion
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I don't think Mormons are very pro-war
Not on the whole they aren't.  I have family in Salt Lake and have been to Utah many times.  From my experience most Mormons range from ambivalent to anti-war.  They are mostly republican more for the social issues than foreign policy.

[ Parent ]
3%, but Romney got 89.5%, so it's a little hard to tell.


[ Parent ]
New York State Senate question
Has anyone attempted a gerrymander ofthe NY state senate?  Assuming that is possible since I don't know how those districts work.  Might be helpful to determine what Dems will do with the 2012 state senate map.

You could probably extrapolate from the Assembly


[ Parent ]
I hate my senior senator so much
Apparently he's wrote out an "obstruction manual" for the GOP on HCR.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

I'm sick of Republican pricks like this representing me. Hopefully Hodes wins in 2010 and we can be done with it for good.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)


Cool Atlanta Mayor's race map.
Not only does it have Reed vs. Norwood, but it gives you racial demographics (well, white and black) and Obama vote by council district.  Interesting to see that there are only two Republican-leaning districts and only one that was extraordinarily Republican.  Also, interesting to see how well Obama did in several of the white districts.

http://www.ajc.com/news/atlant...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


Incredible stats
Thanks! And that link also gives precinct results, too. In each city council district. And in the 'details' section of each precinct result it lists the Chambliss/Martin results (not sure if its the Nov. election or runoff). Unfortunately not the Obama/McCain results like it does for the city council districts.  

[ Parent ]
And surprised at how well Obama did
In some of the heavily white council districts. I mean he just absolutely crushed in at least one of them. Its as if that district is Manhattan transplants or something LOL.

[ Parent ]
Talkin by over 40% in at least one of them


[ Parent ]
Well, it is Atlanta.
Gays, colleges, general liberals, etc.  Some are transplants, but not all.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Yep
Definitely knew Hotlanta has its share of white liberals. Didnt think it was that much, though.

[ Parent ]
Didn't realize that was Martin versus Chambliss.
Perhaps they're thinking those numbers are less influenced by the Obama bounce.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Kind of cool to see Martin/Chambliss results instead
As we often see Presidental results for precincts but rarely for Senate races. Id love, for example, to see a site have a huge list of Senate/Gov-Cong. District results. Although I know VA and CA officially tallies them.  

[ Parent ]
Balboni
In the Politico article it says hes a moderate who supports same-sex marriage. But against Obama's health care plan. Im sure just being against same sex marriage would be enough to draw a Conservative Party challenger...only question is how strong would he/she be and how much support would Balboni get from moderates to counterbalance it...and still win. Still, Balboni seems to have the ideological and geographical profile to win this. And being NY Homland Sec. Chief is no 2nd tier job in this day in age I wouldnt think. Not sure how hed do in a primary and how good hed be at raising money.  

Not sure if Friday is the best day for White to announce
At least here in the Houston area. As we may have a once-in-a-blue-moon snow on Friday. Given that we dont exactly get that much (although we did last winter. but typically its only once every few years or so) then alot of peoples attention (at least in their head) will be on that after a hard day's work. or focusing on that part of the news rather than the mayor's announcement.  

For the 6 years I lived in TX
it snowed exactly every 2 years, so three times total.  And funny enough, that would mean this year there is some snow.  Ironic since Im back in Minnesota and we've gotten snow once so for this season, which is a huge anomaly.  I kind of miss it.  Oh, the having to leave earlier just because it takes that much longer to get to work.  I hate it yet I miss it.  

[ Parent ]
Speaking of which!
Its snowing now!  Second snow of the season for North St. Paul!

[ Parent ]
Really
It was in the 80's here.  This is probably the warmest winter I've ever seen.  And that's saying a lot for Florida.  

[ Parent ]
Only 38 here in N TX! With a freeze warning!
I am not looking forward to Friday's snow because I have to work that afternoon. I hate driving in snow. Of the two times I've driven in snowy/icy conditions, I drove 30 mph the whole way from my high school to my house, doubling my commute time, and the second time I went a little faster but hit a guardrail. Fortunately the damage to my car was not serious and easily fixable. I was not hurt either.

http://www.weather.com/outlook...

All the leaves are brown...
And the sky is gray...
I've been for a walk...
On a winter's day...

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Welcome to Texas
1 snowflake, the entire state panics, shuts down, and calls it a holiday. We are a skittish bunch. And as someone who is just finishing a paper after pulling two near all nighters, I would like a snow day tomorrow instead of going to work.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

[ Parent ]
We'd probably do the same in L.A.
Except for up in the mountains, L.A. has not received snow since 1932. When I was little I was surprised we did not get snow at Christmastime in SoCal and the only snow I could see was in the mountains. That was before I learned about the Mediterranean climate in 9th grade geography.

Though...you know you've been in L.A. too long when...

It's barely sprinkling rain and there is a report on every news station: STORM WATCH

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
And I'm laughing at this...
As I'm sitting on my balcony overlooking the ocean in Long Beach, CA.  Don't mind visiting family there, but god I'm glad I don't live in Minnesota anymore.

[ Parent ]
Wish I was there!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Here in Houston
Its about once every few years...roughly. Maybe different based on location. Im personally on the gulf coast. Maybe its different in, say, the area near The Woodlands/Spring. Or Katy. But TX is quite varied. There can be lots of snow in far north TX, for example.

[ Parent ]
I'm in Denton right Now
Left Houston last June :P

Woke up this morning to white stuff on my lawn and car. It may have nee snow at night, but it was slush by 8:30 am. I look forward to Friday. Dallas typically gets 1 good snow day a year.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26


[ Parent ]
Yup.
Since I moved to Texas in 1995, it has snowed at least once every winter, including the 1 winter I lived in Austin. And yes, we got good snow even in Austin!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
You Keep Shrugging, Governor Culver
You'll be shrugging your way out of office next fall with that kind of attitude.

He's just not panicking publicly
What do you want him to say?  OMGZ teh sky is falling?  'm sure he's very nervous in private.

[ Parent ]
DE-Sen
Castle continues to lead in Delaware race (warning: PDF)

A March PPP survey found Castle leading Biden 44-36. Now his advantage is 45-39. Castle is benefiting from a 52-23 advantage with independents as well as the fact that he's winning 20% of the Democratic vote while holding Biden to just 10% of the Republican vote.

There had been some speculation about whether Castle's vote against the health care bill in the House last month would hurt his prospects but 46% of voters say they're opposed to the plan with only 43% in support, an indication that Castle may have actually been on the right side of public opinion on that particular issue.

Are you kidding me? Delawareans are opposed to health care reform?!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


well
It's safe to say that PPP got a very bad sample here.  It's just not plausible that Delaware as a whole is against Obamacare.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

[ Parent ]
Castle vs Biden
I can understand why Castle is leading right now due to him being so popular and a "moderate". Most people from Delaware might not know that he voted against the stimulus and health care and probably won't find out until campaign season. But for health care to be losing in Delaware that is extremely unbelievable    

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  

[ Parent ]
Yup
He is over 50% approval with liberals. He won't be after the campaign is engaged.

[ Parent ]
Doesn't help
That their Senator Carper publicly badmouths it and is pushing for laughable "triggered co-ops" as a replacement for a real public option.  Still I don't buy that a majority in Delawar opposed HCR either.

[ Parent ]
Carper
has always been more moderate than you would expect for a senator from really blue Delaware. I believe he's conservative on Illegal Immigration as well.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
He's a relic of the past really
Dems had to tolerate him in 2000 because he was the only candidate well positioned to defeat Senator Roth.  

[ Parent ]
Not quite
Carper's one of the Delaware establishment bigwigs. He and Castle are buddy-buddy, which is part of the reason why Democrats have never seriously challenged him, and why I still think Castle will cruise into the Senate with only token opposition. The Delaware Way rarely loses.

[ Parent ]
Surely the VP has more sway
I cannot imagine he wants his seat to fall so easily to any Republican, even Castle.

[ Parent ]
Carper runs the state more than Biden
Biden was always more focused on either national issues (when he headed the Judiciary Committee) or foreign policy (when he ran the Foreign Relations Comm).  Carper's non-endorsement of his former Cabinet member John Carney essentially cost him the gubernatorial nomination against Jack Markell last year.  That's because Carper has spent more time in Delaware as a Governor while Biden's always been in Washington.  He is friends with Castle - they swapped seats (Castle to the House and Carper to the governorship) with the promise they wouldn't run against each other.  If Carper comes out strongly for Beau Biden though, it will likely be the deciding factor in favor the Democrats.  If he sits on his hands we'll have problems.

In truth, Carper represents a very pro-corporate wing that exists in Delaware.  The state has the highest concentration of incorporations in the country and its Chancery Court system is very friendly to national companies, which is why so many are registered there.  That's why Carper votes the way he does.


[ Parent ]
Yes, and people forget
Biden was also corporation-friendly as a Senator. He voted for the awful bankruptcy bill a few years ago.

[ Parent ]
I think we'll have a serious problem on our hands
if Carper sits on his hands for Beau instead of tours the state with him.  Id hope Carper would recognize that while it may not be so bad him pretty much allowing a GOPer to be elected in a solidly blue district to the House, it is quite another to allow it to happen for a Senate seat.

[ Parent ]
Still not worried.
Former governor, former Lt. Governor, current U.S. House remember elected statewide since, what, the 1980s can only get that far BEFORE the Obama-Biden rallies.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]

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