Google Ads


Site Stats

SSP Daily Digest: 11/27

by: DavidNYC

Fri Nov 27, 2009 at 1:19 PM EST


Post-Thanksgiving food coma = digest on a diet.

• FL-Sen: The 99th-most senior senator in the United States, George LeMieux, has been working his new colleagues on behalf of Charlie Crist. After James Inhofe endorsed Marco Rubio, LeMieux began trying to play the role of gatekeeper, urging other fellow senators to see him first before picking sides. Supposedly, LeMieux has told some of these people that a "shoe was about to drop" in the race - but the Miami Herald's use of the past tense in that quasi-quote has me wondering if some expected bombshell failed to go off.

• IL-Sen: As the bank owned by Alexei Giannoulias and his family started failing over the last couple of years, it nonetheless paid out $70 million in dividends to him and his siblings. Giannoulias claims he only personally received a "minimal" portion of those dividends - except by minimal, he means $2.5 million. Unsurprisingly, his opponent David Hoffman is hammering him about this.

• NY-Sen-B: Chatter is heating up about NYC Comptroller Bill Thompson's future. The NYT reports that folks close to Thompson say he's considering one of three options: challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, challenging state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli, or taking a breather and running for mayor again in 2013. The article focuses most heavily on a potential matchup with Gillibrand. Not only have her poll numbers been anemic, but the White House would probably have a hard time trying to dissuade Thompson, given that their public attempt to push another African American, Gov. David Paterson, out of his race.

In related news on the GOP side, Larchmont Mayor Elizbeth Feld said she's considering a run. Feld got crushed in a run for the state Senate's 37th district seat last year.

• CA-50: Solano Beach City Councilman Dave Roberts is dropping out of the race against Brian Bilbray because he and his partner are adopting two more children who are siblings of one of their sons. Roberts declined to endorse either of the remaining Dem candidates, Francine Busby and Tracy Emblem, but pledged to work with the winner to beat Bilbray next year.

• FL-08: The Republicans have "finally found" a candidate to take on Alan Grayson, rich guy Bruce O'Donoghue. That attitude, though, is indicative of the fact that the GOP establishment is ignoring Armando Gutierrez, the young carpetbagging real estate developer who's been in the race since October. Who knows whether O'Donoghue will pass wingnut purity tests, but if he's wobbly, he may be vulnerable to getting teabagged to death by Gutierrez. And if the power players continue to diss Gutierrez, that's only likely to fuel teabag rage further.

• Polling: Another installment of Choose-Your-Own-Adventure from PPP. This time, the choices are Delaware, Georgia, Illinois primary, and South Carolina. Click the link to cast your vote.
DavidNYC :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/27
Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
SSP Daily Digest: 11/27 | 99 comments
looks like SSP got a shout out
LOL
You will be glad to know, too, that our party's unity is causing deep worry among Democrats.  For example, the liberal "Swing State Project," in a post yesterday afternoon, called the news "disappointing news out of Colorado not just from the standpoint of what would give Dems the best chance but also in terms of pure fireworks."

Scott McInnis called us liberal.

[ Parent ]
Huh
How did you find that?
[ Parent ]
Well
Somehow I found myself on his website, and I just stumbled across it
[ Parent ]
LeMieux v. Nelson, 2012?
From the OP's linked article

His decision to open a political action committee has heightened expectations that he will challenge Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson in 2012.

Ah the "Diaz Balart Strategy"
Without a Diaz Balart. Good luck with that.
[ Parent ]
LeMieux would get crushed by Nelson
Assuming he could even with a republican primary, which I doubt.
[ Parent ]
CA-50
Shame. He was raising decent money.
Vote Delaware to be polled
I'm really curious to see if Beau Biden is truly leading Castle in the race as the last poll released showed him leading Castle by 5%  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
I'm more curious about Georgia
especially since I used to live there. There was some polling earlier that indicated that GA-Sen might be a sleeper race, and I'm also curious to see how Roy Barnes is doing.  
[ Parent ]
WI-GOV: PPP has the numbers
41% Barrett
39% Neumann

46% Barrett
41% Thompson

40% Barrett
40% Walker

NY: assuming that Bloomberg isn't planning on being NYC mayor-for-life,
I'd really like to see Bill Thompson try again in 4 years. He just came so tantalizingly close (despite being outspent 14 to one according to that article) that against a non-billionaire he ought to have a great chance and be a great mayor.
I think there may have been internal polls done by the Bloomberg capaign
that showed a much closer race because people in the campaign were saying that they feared a Thompson upset.
[ Parent ]
I suggest Thompson move on to bigger and better things...
A potential Bloomberg fourth term or not, we're probably looking at a contentious Dem Primary in 2013. I highly doubt Thompson has aspirations to go head-to-head against Anthony Weiner.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Anthony Weiner
is terrific in the House. Maybe he can start moving up into the leadership to keep him content as a Congressman (Rahm Emanuel: pull a few strings there).
Though it must be noted that when Bloomberg rewrote the old term limit rules, Weiner turned tail and ran for re-election rather than challenge him.
At least Thompson had the guts to go against Bloomberg as a longshot, even though (I think) Thompson could've run for re-election for NYC Comptroller.
[ Parent ]
Rangell?
I think Thompson should replace Rangell in Congress.
Yes he should
But good luck getting Rangel out of there.  I imagine the voters in his district love their gravy train.
[ Parent ]
Depends on how much
corruption news comes out about him. Rangel made it the House by defeating a beloved Congressman who was marred in corruption controversies. I can see it happening again.  
[ Parent ]
I dunno
As far as running for re-election goes I think he is Jefferson-safe.  He could probably get caught with a freezer full of cash and still get re-nominated.
[ Parent ]
Most of Rangel's constituents
can't afford to own rental property in the Dominican Republic. I don't think he has too much sympathy there anymore.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Rangel will definitely be primaried
and don't be surprised if he is defeated.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
That's a great idea
that's definitely what he should do next

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
Uh oh
Dodd has zero chance with Nader in
He would surely have to quit.
[ Parent ]
Publicity stunt? To get on interview talk shows and plug some new book?

[ Parent ]
Dump Nader's phones
I want to see how many calls he received from Big Bad John Cornyn and Michael Steele about this.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Sweet Jesus
wasn't screwing over Al Gore enough?
[ Parent ]
heh
You want to energize Dems? Tell them Ralph Nader is running!  
[ Parent ]
Gotta agree with this
Still think Dodd would be extremely vulnerable no matter what.
[ Parent ]
Agree with David
Unfortunately this looks like a race Nader could steal a significant portion of the vote from Dodd.  There are probably a good number of people who lean left and don't want to vote for Dodd.  A good many of them would probably vote Nader as a protest vote.
[ Parent ]
Perhaps it would be like Cahill and Patrick in MA
where the Independent splits the anti-incumbent vote.
[ Parent ]
I think that's about right
There's a lot of potential for such a candidate, whether or not it's Nader.
By the way, how long has it been since Nader has resided in Connecticut? My impression was that he's lived in/around D.C. for decades, but that could be wrong...
And of course, residence in a state is less than relevant these days when it comes to Senate campaigns (see also: Hillary Clinton '00, Elizabeth Dole '02, Alan Keyes '04, etc.).
[ Parent ]
Yup, he's got terrible numbers
I think the writing's on the wall for him. If he's our nominee, I think he loses.

And we can't afford to lose that seat.

[ Parent ]
Umm
Why doesn't he just run against Dodd in the democratic primary if he wants in the race?  
[ Parent ]
Like he'd win...
Enough Democrats know damn well how badly he screwed us over in 2000, even though Chris Dodd's in trouble, I doubt Nader could ever come close to defeating Dodd in a primary.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
That would imply he actually wants to get elected
and not throw the seat to the Republicans and then complain Democrats are out to get him and his followers.

If he really wants to change the course of DC, he'd run against Lieberman.  

[ Parent ]
As much as I dislike nader for what he did in 2000
He is a legit progressive, and would like to hear his voice in the senate.  If I lived in CT, I would definitely vote for him in the primary if Dodd looked in trouble.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
He'd have to first get elected to the Senate
and there's no way he can do that as a Green.

If he was serious about getting elected to the Senate, he'd run as a Democrat...he'd have to caucus with them anyway, and this is not a situation like Bernie Sanders where there is no Democratic candidate and a weak Republican candidate.  

[ Parent ]
Can't imagine Nader could break 20% in a Dem Primary
But he could surely garner 3% in a general and further dampen Dodd's re-election hopes.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Same reason...
...back in 1992 he ran in the New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate rather than pay the nominal fee to be a real candide (New Hampshire has some of the most liberal ballot access laws in the country).  He doesn't want to win.  Just a make point.

Incidentally his point in running in 1992 was to show he couldn't win as a Democrat and he has used that "run" as one of many excuses for not running as a Democrat.  (Unsaid of course is that he gets a LOT more Republican money not running as a Democrat)

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
He might want to rent an apartment in CT first
he lives in DC, not Connecticut.
[ Parent ]
NY-Sen: Bruce Blakeman may run for GOP nod
http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesi...

Blakeman won the Republican nomination for Comptroller in '98, but wound up losing the general to Carl McCall by a 2-to-1 margin.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Oh I know Blakeman personally
that's interesting.  
[ Parent ]
Is he related...
to GOP strategist Brad Blakeman?
[ Parent ]
No
Blakeman is the former Presiding officer of the Nassau County Legislature. He later moved to NYC and ran for State Comptroller in 1998.

He was a regular panelist on a public affairs show I produced in 2008.  

[ Parent ]
GA-12: Thomas officially in for another primary against Barrow
http://savannahnow.com/news/20...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Wonder if she cracks 30% this time
Seriously, there has to be a better black primary challenger for Barrow in that district.
[ Parent ]
Curious
I've seen this mentioned in passing before, but not (to my knowledge) has it ever been discussed in detail. Why is Thomas considered such a weak candidate?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
IIRC
she's not even all that liberal.  
[ Parent ]
Something to remember is that Obama endorsed Barrow.
Barrow wrapped his arm firmly around Obama's shoulders during the Presidential primary season.  I'm not saying that was the only explanation for Barrow's big primary win, but it certainly helped.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Saw her in a debate
She's just not really that sharp. She couldn't clearly explain what she would do differently in comparison to Barrow and her fundraising was terrible. I'm all about Barrow receiving a primary challenger if they are electable and more progressive then he is. Sadly, she is neither.  
[ Parent ]
Curious
Regina Thomas is not more liberal than Barrow? She's well to the left of him if you look at her voting record and what she ran on in 2008.
[ Parent ]
Any number of reasons
She gives Dems no reason to vote for her over Barrow since she's almost as conservative as he is.  Her fundraising in 2008 was almost nonexistent.
[ Parent ]
So, if I might be so bold
This is basically another Cohen v Tinker situation where the real issue at play is probably the racial makeup of the district?  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
No
It's not that at all.  It's about ideology and Barrow's alienating his black voter base.  Cohen is a solid liberal democrat who works his ass off to serve the interests of his mostly poor black constituents.  Barrow works his ass off to sell out his constituents every chance he gets.  Unlike Cohen black voters have good reason to oust Barrow.
[ Parent ]
I understand that
I'm not by any means trying to suggest that John Barrow and Steve Cohen have anything in common beyond skin color. I'm talking about Thomas' primary challenge. If Thomas is no more liberal than Barrow is, what motivation is there on her part beyond feeling a black Democrat should be holding a seat where the Democrats' base is overwhelmingly black?

Have to love the old political trick of "Vote for me, because I'm not my opponent".  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Yes, her argument is race
Just like Cohen's opponents in TN-09.  All of Cohen's opponents have amounted to challenges to his right from blacks democrats.  Similarly Barrow's black opponent Thomas is hardly a challenge from the left.  If a credible leftist black democrat emerged in GA-12 I'd take the person seriously.  
[ Parent ]
A lot of it is anti-semitism as well
As was obvious in Tinker's campaign against Cohen religion was used as much as if not more than race.  Tinker apparently thought attacking him for not being Christian would be an effective wedge issue.  Thankfully it blew up in her face in a huge way.  Barrow probably escapes a lot of that criticism since he is Christian.
[ Parent ]
Which speaks volumes about what its okay to be
Not okay to be racist but okay to be anti-semitic.
[ Parent ]
I'll say this bluntly
Black majority and influence districts were created to ensure that the Congressperson reflects the interests of blacks in the district.  Steve Cohen might be white, but he represents the interests of blacks in the district.  

John Barrow represents the interests of big corporations, racists, and bigots.  Here's a district I would consider throwing to a Repub if ousting him in the primary doesn't happen.  This guy is worse than Jim Marshall, who represents a much worse district.

[ Parent ]
Yes
Can anyone say with a straight face that prior TN-09 Harold Ford did a better job representing the interests of his majority black district than Steve Cohen does?  No chance.  Ford treated the district like a stepping stone to statewide office by frequently voting against the interests of his constituents.
[ Parent ]
Whoa
I thought you were talking about Artur Davis for a minute there.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Same with Davis
He's just as bad as Ford.  Hopefully at the very least we get a better congressman for AL-07 thanks to Davis's pointless fun for Governor.  Hilliard was a far better Rep than Davis.
[ Parent ]
NYC Dems attempting to restore their...
...circular firing squad.

"I think the more the numbers keep coming out saying she's vulnerable, the more people will try to figure out where she stands on the issues," said Representative José E. Serrano, one of the most outspoken Democratic critics of Senator Gillibrand, referring to her shifting stance on issues like gun control.

I am not a NY resident, and I was cool to Gov. Paterson selecting now Sen. Gillibrand for the seat, but for Serrano to frame her position on gun control as a shifting stance is at best two-faced. NYC Dems insisted that her voting record in the House on gun control was something that she should "reconsider", and now that she (correctly) has modified that position, it is now a "shifting stance?"

Just be straight up and honest, Serrano. You really mean that the only legit Democratic nominees for statewide office are the ones based inside the City's limits.

Where she stands?
She's been a rock solid liberal on everything since she took over that Senate seat.  Just more whining from the NYC reps who like to talk trash but don't have the guts to actually challenge her.
[ Parent ]
No shit
Im sick of all of the NYC Reps complaining about Gillibrand.  McCarthy not jumping into the primary right away, saying she'd rather wait for someone else who is younger.  Then Maloney and all of her crap.  Serrano bugs me most of all.  He just sits on the sidelines and whines while at least the others actually considered primarying her; all bark and no bite.

Kind of makes me want to give it up to Israel.  I support Gillibrand but at least he  isnt just a mouth piece.

[ Parent ]
That's about the size of it
Personally, I think it's nice to see a Senator from upstate.  
[ Parent ]
As long as it isn't a Republican from upstate...
.
[ Parent ]
I can't remember one in my lifetime
Javits was from New York City, I believe, and Alphonse D'Amato was from Nassau County.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Charles Goodell of Jamestown 1966-1971
was the last Upstate Republican (and Upstate at all) Senator, but he was appointed and defeated for reelection.

Last one who was elected was Kenneth Keating in 1958. He was from the Rochester area.

[ Parent ]
As for upstate Senate Ds, there's always Daniel Patrick Moynihan
I thought he did an excellent job playing up his time in Pindars Corners (near Cooperstown).  
[ Parent ]
Huh?
I thought he lived in the NYC area for most of his life.  Can't find anything on him ever living in upstate NY.
[ Parent ]
See the first few pages of this book review
for an excellent story on how Hillary launched her campaign on Moynihan's farm, taking his advice on running upstate.

http://www.nytimes.com/books/f...

There's more (elsewhere) about how Moynihan was sort of like an ancient Roman (or Greek?) intellectual based on how he retreated to his farm every year to write some new book.

[ Parent ]
He had a home in Delaware County
New York City was his primary residence, but he kept a home way upstate.  
[ Parent ]
Ah, good catch.
I left out that caveat...
[ Parent ]
Not really NYC Dems
But now just Serrano himself. He has bleated on like this for months, long after McCarthy, Israel and Maloney etc stopped.

I think you hit the nail on the head with regard to what his problem is. Having said that, for the life of me, I cannot understand why Gillibrand hasn't run any ads to introduce herself.

I understand the reasoning behind hoarding CoH for Pataki or Giuliani but if she did something about her numbers in advance that would more likely discourage either from getting in.

I mean I can't imagine many people in NYC would be anything but delighted with her senate voting record but they obviously don't know anything about it. All they hear is garbage from the likes of Serrano.

[ Parent ]
It's a tricky balance
My experience is that frontloading your ads is a bad idea if you can't pay for many more down the road.  
[ Parent ]
I'm talking about a down payment
She can afford it.
[ Parent ]
I think her cash on hand could buy her
about two weeks of New York media--at best.  
[ Parent ]
She has never had a problem
Raising more.
[ Parent ]
If the story is "she blew her cash a year out," she might
The problem is that just dribbling it out isn't going to work in NY. She needs to get more and better earned media. She's on the right track, but she not yet as shameless as Schumer!  
[ Parent ]
GA-08: Another Republican passes
http://www.macon.com/local/sto...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Weird
That district should be a great pickup opportunity for the GOP.  Marshall just barely survived even in 2006.  Not sure why he'd get a pass in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, neither Barrow nor Marshall have gotten any real attention.
Yet Bishop is the one with the higher-tier challenger.  I wonder if people are just waiting until after redistricting.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
They already redistricted in 2006
I'm sure they could do more to dislodge Marshall, but they already tried it with the current map and have so far failed.
[ Parent ]
Looks Can Be Deceiving
It does look like it'd be a great pickup opportunity but it's not.

Granted, Marshall's old district in 2002/2004 was much friendlier, he's still fairly safe.

1) He was Mayor of Macon.

2) He's got strong ties to Mercer University.

3) He's got strong ties in the military community which is a necessity in this district.

4) His constituent services are top notch.

5) He's crafted a staunch record as a Conservative Democrat.

I think many people underestimate the importance of constituent services when it comes to the average voter.

Marshall barely survived in 2006 because redistricting caused his district to change big time. Collins also represented a number of the new counties in Congress during his previous stint so that further caused Marshall trouble.

Look at 2002/2004, Marshall barely won over Clay in 2002 and then smashed him in 2004.

Marshall's the type that once he gets settled into a district, he's safe.

He toppled a former Congressman in Collins' former district and the GOP so the GOP decided to go the military route and put up someone who could go toe to toe with Marshall on military matters. Different candidate, same result.

The reason he's getting a pass is because they've thrown everything they can at him and he continues to win.

Now, if Marshall steps down, the seat flips automatically.  

[ Parent ]
Does Erick Erickson live in that district
He would make for a good teabagging candidate.
[ Parent ]
He's
the guy that runs Redstate right?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
That's him
His title is "Chairman of the Board" and "Managing Editor."
[ Parent ]
Yeah, you're right
He lives in Macon...
That would really be something if he ran; it would be a kind of unprecedented candidacy in a lot of ways – as if Kos ran for Congress.
[ Parent ]
The funny thing is that
both Kos and Erick could easily get elected to Congress from their respected districts.

Well to be honest they are both well above candidates like Jon Runyan, who really has no business running for Congress.  

[ Parent ]
Do you really think Kos could take out Barbara Lee?
I think she represents the Berkeley district where he lives.
[ Parent ]
She won't be around forever
But he has repeatedly said he isn't interested.
[ Parent ]
Um
Explain to us how Erickson would win the seat. I'm curious to hear this.
[ Parent ]
An open GA-08
would be an easy win for any Republican.
[ Parent ]
Marshall was Macon Mayor
Which appears to be something that helps potential democrats running in GA-08.  Are there any other Mayors of Macon who could make a legit race of an open seat?  Or maybe a family member or Marshall's?
[ Parent ]
I guess
Havn't seen Erickson on TV before, but judging by the level of intelligence in his online posts I'd guess he's not a fraction as intelligent or entertaining as Kos.
[ Parent ]
Markos Moulitsas vs. Erick Erickson!
BATTLE OF THE TITANS

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
I think
teh tubes will explode if that happens.

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 11/27 | 99 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox