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What Is This Map?

by: Inoljt

Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 8:47 PM EST


By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

This map is not what you think it is. Take a moment to guess what it represents.

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The answer below the flip.
Inoljt :: What Is This Map?
At first glance, it looks a lot like the results of the 2008 presidential election. The northeast and midwest are all blue. Then there's the west coast - a long line of blue counties. One could be quite easily forgiven if one took this map for a county-by-county map of the 2008 presidential election.

In fact, here are the real election results:

Photobucket

[Note: If you want to better compare the two maps, open two tabs of this (the first map) and
this (the actual results). Then switch between them.]

There is an extremely strong correlation between the two maps. Almost all the same counties are blue or red. Peering closer only cements this impression. Nevada has three blue counties - the exact three Democrats won. In Texas, only the cities and the Hispanic southwest are blue - a precise replication of the real results. One can go on and on, spotting these types of similarities.

Yet there are minor anomalies. Central Indiana and southern Florida are uniformly blue; President Barack Obama generally lost these areas. More significantly, the vast majority of Minnesota shows up red - strange, given that Democrats won the state by double-digits.

Minnesota should provide a clue of what the first map represents. Although the Democratic candidate won the state, it has been trending red for several elections. Before reading more, take a minute to refine your first guess.

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If you haven't figured out what the first map represents by now, here's a bigger hint: look at Arkansas. Notice how uniformly red it appears in the first map, despite the several counties Mr. Obama won. Try to guess again - you probably can figure it out now.

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.

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Here's the answer: the first map represents voting shifts between the 1992 presidential election and the 2008 presidential election.

As you have seen, there is quite a startling correlation between the two maps. Over the past four elections, the vast majority of counties President Barack Obama won have become more Democratic, while the vast majority of counties Senator John McCain won have become more Republican.

In the next post, I will attempt to analyze the meaning of this.
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What Is This Map? | 62 comments
I like how vermont is solid blue in both maps.


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
No coincidence
In Central Florida there is a big shift for Obama over Clinton, notably in Orange and Osceola counties.  Both counties have booming population growth fueled by an influx of Hiapanics and highly educated whites.  Orange county (Orlando) has basically gone from being a republican-leaning county to a strongly democratic county in less than two decades.

Also obvious is that the panhandle is the only region of Florida drifting the other way.  That is to be expected since the region has more in common with the deep south than it does with central and south Florida.

More than one thing going on
Immigration, polarization, regional shifts. There were many more rural whites in Clinton's '92 coalition--especially in appalachia and the south.  
And it was the swan song for that coalition
That same coalition that helped elect Clinton in 1992 quickly turned on him in 1994.  It was the end of the old democratic coalition and led the eventual rebirth of current Obama coalition.  
[ Parent ]
Not exactly
1996 had the two coalitions together concurrently. That's why it was the biggest Democratic win in memory.  
[ Parent ]
Not sure you could call 1996 the biggest Democratic victory in memory.
Sure, Clinton did do better in the electoral college but did worse in the popular vote.

But I think you're right about the two coalitions, but with some of what Chad is saying.  The rural coalition was still dying in 1996.  For example, in Georgia the more rural parts of today's Metro Atlanta area trended away from Clinton while the urban, suburban, and, to some extent, exurban parts trended toward Clinton.  Also noticed that Clinton exchanged Georgia, Montana, and Colorado for Arizona and Florida.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Clinton won by almost 10 points in 1996
I agree that the trends weren't perfectly linear. Texas and Georgia have seen more than one trend between 1992 and 2008.
[ Parent ]
And in 1996
Republicans gained another 2 senate seats nationally thanks to pickups in Arkansas and Alabama.  Democrats also lost even more house seats that year in the south, hampering efforts of the party to retake the house.  Clinton improved his imagine in the south between 1994 and 1996 but the overall democratic brand continued it's steep decline.
[ Parent ]
Interesting.
Look at Metro Atlanta.

Is there any way you could make regional maps as it's hard to see everything at this size.  That and something to show population.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

It's from the NYT electoral explorer
[ Parent ]
Damn you.
As if I needed something else to distract me!

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
It's uncanny how alike the maps are
An interesting contrast is Eastern vs Western PA. How long until Lancaster County PA is more Democratic than Allegheny County PA?

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
Now that's a compelling question
I personally expect to live to see the day that a Democrat carries Lancaster. Actually, that's happened, but it's exceedingly rare.
[ Parent ]
yeah, that was a weird election
How did Casey win 73% of the vote in Lancaster County and yet lose Montgomery County? I know that MontCo is ancestrally Republican, but Lancaster is even more so. It was Thaddeus Stevens's base and, if I remember correctly, has the longest stretch without electing a Democratic Representative.
[ Parent ]
All about abortion rights

[ Parent ]
Casey actually did better in Lancaster
than he did in Philadelphia.
[ Parent ]
Bullshit!
From the Pennsylvania Department of State:

Lancaster County:

Santorum: 87,535 58.3%
Casey:     62,662 41.7%

Philadelphia County:

Casey:     357,057 84.1%
Santorum: 67,452 15.9%

[ Parent ]
I think he was referring to 1990
When Bob Casey Sr. beat Republican Barbara Hafer by a two-to-one margin.  Casey was pro-life and Hafer was pro-choice, I believe, so Casey ended up doing far better in the uber-Republican central part of the state than in the Philly suburbs, reversing the more common pattern.
[ Parent ]
It might help to read the whole thread
before chiming in.
[ Parent ]
Wrong Casey.
Sr., not Jr.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Oops!
I stand corrected. My apologies to all.
[ Parent ]
Any chance it might happen in 2012?
Obama performed head and shoulders above any other Democrat there (when you compare it to his statewide performance).  The other such county was Dauphin, where his 9% win was pretty impressive.  I don't think any other Democrat came so close to their statewide margin in Dauphin Co.
[ Parent ]
Nah, the republican base is just too strong there
Casey didn't even come close in '06, for example.

It would require a massive landslide. Even Sarah Palin would win Lancaster.  

[ Parent ]
That's my argument
Obama (43.5%) did better than Casey (41.7%) did in Lancaster.  I think a combination of Philly metro outgrowth and old religious influences (lot of influence from peace churches) led to this performance.  

I'm not so sure that Sarah Palin will win Lancaster.  Barry Goldwater didn't.

[ Parent ]
Not in 2012.
Dauphin County has Harrisburg, which is a good Democratic base with a majority black population. They really came out for Obama.

There's nothing comparable in Lancaster County, though the city of Lancaster has a large Puerto Rican population, and that community (moreso than other Hispanic communities) tends to vote Dem at the same high rate African-Americans do.  

I'm wondering if/when York County turns blue. Obama actually did better in Lancaster than in York but Democrats have traditionally been more competitive in York. I notice York because I live in Baltimore and York County is somewhat in the Baltimore orbit. Although I think the Marylanders moving there might actually be "reddening" the county in the same way that most of the Boston commuter towns are among the last true GOP strongholds left in New Hampshire.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
that's what I thought too
when I first heard about movement to York County, but then again part of my family lives there, and they're Democratic, and I recently went up there to meet my gf's family, and they're Democratic too. Come to think of it, my dad's friend's brother lives up there, and he's a die-hard Democrat. I was talking with him about politics over the summer, and he said he worked at an old folks' home, and everyone there was pretty staunchly Republican; maybe give it another 10-20 years and things will change?

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
I should clarify...
all the people I mentioned are recent arrivals from Baltimore.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
That was so weird
I mean I know Montco was Republican back then, but how the hell is Hafer win that county and not even come close anywhere else in the state. She's not even from Montco...she's not even from that side of the state.  
[ Parent ]
It wasn't about partisanship,
it was about abortion rights.  
[ Parent ]
Wow. Look at 2008 versus 2004
Damn near every county is more blue than in 2004.  The only real exceptions are Appalachia (especially Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Oklahoma), Northern Florida, Southern Louisiana and Arizona.  Reminds me of the 1964 Electoral College map.

Versus 2000 is even more interesting.  Applachia is even more red and bigger (e.g. going further down into Alabama).  Almost all of Louisiana is red.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

I knew the first map had to be a change map.
You'd have to go all the way back to 1936 to find Orange County, California colored Democratic blue in a presidential race. And all 57 other counties were colored blue that year also.

And I love seeing all that blue in the first map, especially in California, especially-especially the dark blue in San Fran and L.A.! The red counties are all small population-wise save Fresno, Tulare, and Kern (Bakersfield). But those three even combined are still nowhere near big enough to counter the mighty blue shift in the populous coastal NorCal and SoCal counties, plus a growing Hispanic voter bloc may turn those counties blue later on; and in Fresno's case bluer.

Later on I plan to do diaries of the population shifts in NorCal since 1900 and SoCal since 1950.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

Gotta love Florida
McCain carried 52 of 67 counties in the state and lose 51-48%.

Orange County was a killer.  Obama carried it 59-40%.  

From 2004 to 2008
The biggest swings towards Dem Presidential candidate among Florida voters were.  Most are fast growing central FL counties:

Osceola - 25%
Orange - 19
Duval - 15
Seminole - 14
Excambia - 13
Polk - 12

Biggest swing in the opposite direction.  Every single one are rural panhandle counties:

Liberty - 16%
Calhoun - 12
Lafayette - 12
Taylor - 11
Holmes - 10
Franklin - 10

[ Parent ]
Love those Florida trends.
There's no way Republicans win Florida losing Orange County 60-40, especially not with the huge increase in non-Cuban Hispanics statewide.

Central Florida is obviously the big battleground.  

36, M, Democrat, MD-03

[ Parent ]
Even more amusing
Bill Clinton lost Orange in both 1992 and 1996.  And Clinton easily won FL in 1996.  That's how fast Orange County has shifted left.  It's entirely possible that Orange can become as solidly Democratic as Broward and Palm Beach Counties in the near future.
[ Parent ]
Alan Grayson will lead the vanguard. . .

[ Parent ]
Even Even More Amusing
Gore actually received a higher percentage of the vote than Clinton in '96 in Florida. Gore won Orange County when Clinton did not and Gore won it by 6,000 votes. Kerry won Orange County by 1,000 votes. It should have trended more to the right because Hispanics went to the Republicans in 2004. This is a surefire sign Orange County will be colored blue, not orange.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Personally, I think you have to look
at the two party vote. Perot drew evenly in both 1992 and 1996.  
[ Parent ]
I am not surprised
Gore got more votes in Florida than Clinton. It helped that Perot was in the equation in '96.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Good point
Dubya was always one of the more popular politicians with Florida Hispanics, and not just with the Cuban-Americans.  I cannot see any potential republican Presidential candidate (except for Jeb who speaks Spanish and whose wife is mexican) doing better with Hispanics in Florida than Dubya did in 2000 and 2004.

Osceola is even more telling than Orange County since the Hispanic population is growing far faster there than in Orange.  It has gone from about 70% white population in 2000 to a minority-majority county today.  Kerry lost the county 47/53 in 2004 and Obama carried it in a 60/40 landslide.

[ Parent ]
When does Duvall flip?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Hard to say
I was really shocked Obama only narrowly lost Duval by a little over 2%.  He might carry it in 2012 against a crappy GOP nominee.  
[ Parent ]
I think he will carry it against any nominee
Counties like Duval are becoming more minority on a daily basis.
[ Parent ]
There were some massive gains for Obama in urban/suburban counties everywhere.
Dallas County, TX went from 49-50 in 2004 to 57-42.
Bexar County (San Antonio) went from 44-55 to 52-47

Douglas County, GA (Atlanta suburb) went from 38-61 to 50-49

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Rockdale was even more impressive
Going from 39-60 to 54-45. Does anyone know what the biggest county swing in the nation was last year? I was thinking it was one of Atlanta's suburban counties, one in Northern Indiana or Honolulu County, Hawaii.  
[ Parent ]
Honolulu County's Dem margin increased by 38 points!
Dem performance there increased by 21 points.  No Georgia county saw that big of an increase (although some saw sizable increases).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Maverick County, Tx
 I am not sure if that is the right county but there is a county along the Rio Grande that swung 40 points to Obama from 59-40 to 79-20.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Yes, Maverick County
It's actually 59-40 to 78-21 (hooray for pedantry!), which makes for a 37.86% swing, not as big as Honolulu County's 38.3% swing.
[ Parent ]
Hawaii has a pro-incumbent bias
It's a blue state, but Nixon ('72) and Reagan('84) carried it in their reelection campaigns, and Bush did well there in 2004. In 2008, of course, Obama was certainly helped there because Hawaii is his home state and Honolulu was his home town.
[ Parent ]
Eh...
Nixon and Reagan won re-election by 20 point margins, they each won 49 of 50 states anyways, it's not was particularly pro-incumbent either year (compared to the rest of the country anyways).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
And despite the 1972 and 1984 Presidential landslides
Democrats lost an average of only 14 house seats and gained an average of 2 senate seats in those years.  Basically a wash.  There were no coattails whatsoever for republicans downballot.
[ Parent ]
Hawaii did swing considerably to Bush in 2004.
True it stayed Dem, but less overwhelmingly so than 2000.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Maybe it had something to do with sending Cheney to Hawaii


Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Cheney was sent to HI
after a poll late in the game that showed Kerry up by only 3 there.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Some poll...
Bush lost the state by nine, which begs the question: did it start off that close or did Cheney's appearance help.

Of course the most logical third question is: did Cheney's appearance actually hurt Bush :P

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Yes
Word has it Dark Lords are not very popular in Hawaii.
[ Parent ]
The sense was it was already close
because of strong support for Bush among military voters on Oahu.  
[ Parent ]
So send the least popular aadministration official?
Cheney was only a positive in states where there was a solid GOP base.  There never was such a base in Hawaii.  His appearance probably did hurt more than help.
[ Parent ]
Could a Senator Rubio draw big among Hispanics
in a potential Presidential (or VP) run in 2016?
[ Parent ]
I think that's moot
I don't think a Senator Rubio would ever happen to begin with. He's Cuban anyway, and Hispanics would be more excited over a Puerto Rican, Mexican, or Central/South American as those ethnicities make up most of Hispanic voters. The Cubans already vote Republican.

The only way Republicans would ever really gain with Hispanic voters would be if Republican start nominating non-Cuban Hispanics. Like former California Assemblywoman Bonnie Garcia.

Besides, Florida already had a statewide hispanic with a potential to be on a ticket...Mel Martinez, and that fell flat.

[ Parent ]
Rubio is hard-line against immigration
Unless he pulled a complete reversal on the issue he wouldn't do all that great with Hispanics outside of the Cuban community.  
[ Parent ]
Or unless immigration reform passes
in which case the issue loses potency among Hispanics.
[ Parent ]
What Is This Map? | 62 comments

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