Can he transfer his CoH?

Good news since a non-federal race is always easier in a state that favors the other party. Would be huge if Dems could win CA, FL AND TX next year.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 18:41:24 PM UTC

Given how much money he's collected...

... he'd would be ill-advised to do the switch if he can't. But in many states such a transfer is impossible, so I'm not sure.

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by: LeftistAddiction @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:49:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

cilliza says yes

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

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by: doug_tuttle @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:53:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I believe Texas has no donation limits

so I doubt he'd have any problems with that.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 23:52:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

correct

White can transfer all his money from the US Senate race to a Gubernatorial bid, just like Hutchison did, but it is a one way trip. The money can't flow back the other direction.

The good part is that in the Gubernatorial race, there is no limit to the size of the contribution or the source (other than corporate donations are banned). So you can write a Million Dollar Check (and it's been done before).  

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by: KTinTX @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 07:43:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well..duh

Since KBH effectively threw in the towel against Perry and would easily succumb to RNC pressure to ensure her exit from the Senate, if she will even leave, will coincide with getting a replacement in a November election, the road to a Dem takeover was pretty much slammed shut.

Now that Perry will be their nominee, the Dems must put forth their strongest hand (possibly White) for TX Gov and hope Perry has so isolated the suburban GOP voters that they will vote for White along with the 45% of TX voters who always vote Democratic.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:00:35 PM UTC

It seems

As though Hutchison's uneasiness about her chances have left Texas Democrats in an unenviable position of trying to guess what will happen.  Right now they are starting to hedge their bets on the governor's race being the easier race of the two since Perry will supposedly beat Hutchison in the Rep governor primary.

BUT, if that doesn't come to pass, I just wonder if we'll be left with our pants down, with all of our best candidates stuck in an unwinnable governor's race and nobody left to contend for an open Senate seat.  Politics is one field where things can change very quickly.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:12:37 PM UTC

With Perry's secessionist-sympathetic comments

Is there a way for White to [i]implcitly[/i] depict Perry as treasonous - in a way that's credible to "swing" voters in TX?

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by: tietack @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:15:06 PM UTC

Probably a good thing for White to switch...

KBH's path to the nomination has only gotten more muddled in the last few months and I don't think she's really going to leave the Senate this year. If Rick Perry is the nominee, I think we've probably got a competitive race on our hands. It's better than having White and Sharp beat each other up for the Senate nomination while leaving us with no credible candidate for governor against an unpopular statewide incumbent who has been in office for a solid decade.

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by: NCDem @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:21:16 PM UTC

White can beat Rick Perry

I would put a race for Governor between White and Rick Perry as a tossup.

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by: JSmith @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:38:02 PM UTC

And if Bill White does become Governor

look for Obama to make a real play for Texas in 2012.

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by: JSmith @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:38:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

not only that

But we'd have a complete re-draw of the congressional map, and the Dems would be looking at picking up several seats currently held by the Repubs, namely at least 2 of the 3 new seats, probably Sessions's, maybe McCaul's too.  

23, Male, Democrat, OH-13

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by: StephenCLE @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:42:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There are some East Texas seats in there, too.

Before the 2003 DeLaymander, TX-01 and TX-02 were both held by Democrats (Max Sandlin and Nick Lampson), and I'm pretty sure both were in East Texas at the time.

Between that and a more favorable map in DFW, Houston, and the southern "hump" (if you imagine Texas as an inverted camel), Dems could get back/add probably somewhere around 6 seats. The problem is that, Governor or no Governor, a redistricting plan still needs to come from the Texas House, which may or may not be in Democratic hands by then (and it's looking more like not at this point). White can veto a bad plan or veto reusing the bad plan that's already in place (which would probably be pretty much a given), but he can't draw a good one without the Leg being mostly Democratic to begin with.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:50:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No East Texas

East Texas used to be Democratic, back when people like Sandlin were first elected, but it is not any more. It is one of the strongest GOP areas of the State now. We're not likely to get any Congressional seats from there, and even if we were, they would be Blue Dogs.

In Dallas, a "fair" Congressional map could add about 1-3 more Dem seats, 0-2 more in Austin-San Antonio, 1 on the border, and 0-2 more in Houston.

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 20:06:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The GOP would easily win any seats in rural East Texas

Even if the GOP gerrymander had never been drawn, Sandlin and Turner probably could have been defeated in 2010.

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by: JSmith @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 23:01:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wish I could agree

But I don't.  White is probably our best possible nominee for Governor but this one is Leans R at best even assuming Perry wins his primary.  Unless another 3rd party republican gets in with name recognition to split the GOP vote I can't help but see White as a sizable underdog.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 20:13:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I disagree

The third party presence essentially split the anti-Perry vote back in 2006.  No true Republican in their right mind would vote for a third party-candidate unless the incumbent Governor of their own party pissed them off that much (how pissed would you have to be at your Democratic incumbent to vote 3rd party?).  Think of this way - only 39% of voters in 2006 thought Perry deserved to keep his job.  The first decision voters make is whether or not the incumbent deserves to stay in office.  I think Perry has worn out his welcome, and White has the perfect resume - he's been a competent executive of the state's largest city, he's an expert on energy issues, and if he no longer is running for Senate he can avoid the tricky hot-button national issues that tend to sink Democrats in Texas.  This is the kind of guy that can win over the suburbanites in DFW, Houston, and Austin that have grown tired of Perry's incessant grandstanding.

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by: DFLer @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 21:53:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed with DFLer

I dont see how someone who is openly advocating for secession can be elected governor.  Perry is simply going to get killed with moderates and moderate independents.

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by: Andrew @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 22:59:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's Texas we're talking about

Not exactly loyal Americans.  A good chunk long for the CSA and/or independence from the U.S.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 23:11:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're talking about a small slice of the electorate

that, quite frankly, would never vote Democratic to begin with.  The electorate has changed alot in Texas over the past decade; metro Austin and the DFW Metroplex has a lot more out-of-state transplants who aren't as dogmatically tied to the GOP, and would be open to voting for a credible alternative to Rick Perry.  Goodhair may get good press by railing against Obama, but what VA and NJ taught us is that local issues still rule the day in Governor's races, and attempts to nationalize a gubernatorial election usually backfire.  White can credibly talk up local issues and present himself as a moderate alternative to a guy who really hasn't given a succinct reason to voters as to why he deserves another 4 years (the "I'm not from Washington" argument may work against KBH, but it won't fly in the general).  This is by no means a slam dunk, but White being in the race would be a huge coup for us.  In the very least, if he got in it would force the RGA to spend resources in a state they thought they had locked up, not to mention back a guy who will make at least a few nationally embarassing headlines for them.

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by: DFLer @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 00:50:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I know Texas is trending our way

But we havn't won a single statewide race since what? 1990?  That's a long friggin time and Texas has a lot of statewide races.  That state won't even elect a democrat to low profile offices much less Governor.  I have a hard time believing White will break that streak, in what will likely be a very republican year in Texas no less.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 01:44:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Major statewide race since 1990

I think Dems won a couple of downballot statewide offices in the '90s in Texas, but I can't remember exactly which ones.  On the other hand, Dems might have had a shot at winning Governor in '06 with a better candidate and with unified opposition to Perry (remember, 61 percent voted for somebody other than Rick Perry.)  The problem is that, like Republicans in California, it's a huge state and expensive to run a statewide campaign.  The Republicans only broke through in California when they had a statewide candidate who could appeal to moderates and who started out universally known.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 02:11:13 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

Chris Bell was a horrible candidate in 2006.  Almost anyone else could have done better.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 02:21:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And then

he failed to win a state senate seat that contains some of the most traditionally Democratic territory of the state AFTER he was a congressman.  I'd say he has lost all credibility as a future candidate for anything.

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by: Xochi @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 02:51:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That one was a shocker

I thought it was a forgone conclusion Bell would win that state senate race.  He didn't even come close.  That guy can't win anything.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 02:57:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

1994

There were still Democrats in office statewide through the late 90's but the last time that a Democrat beat a Republican statewide was in 1994. While Governor Ann Richards went down to George Bush in that election, Democrats still won a number of other offices statewide in that election year over Republicans. But the remaining statewide elected Democrats all lost in the 1996, 1998, etc subsequent elections and after 1994 none of them when challenged by a Republican won statewide ever again.  

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by: KTinTX @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 07:46:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Woah....

not to overstate the obvious, but that could move TX-Gov to tossup territory. I don't know the state as well as I could, but with 45% of the state essentially behind him by default, a decently moderate profile, an anti-incumbent year, and broad name rec in the 4th largest city in America, White seems to have all the ingredients for a serious shot at toppling Gov. Goodhair once and for all. Perry won in 2006 with 39% in a four way race. Even if that entire base sticks with him (unlikely), you can't tell me the Stayhorn and Freidman blocs won't be more attracted to someone who isn't a crazy, incompetent secessionist who's been running the state into the ground for a decade. White still needs to play his cards carefully (and do some aggressive Hispanic outreach), but this is the best opportunity we've had to retake this seat since the Shrub took it over to the dark side a decade and a half ago by smearing Ann Richards into political oblivion.

In addition to the obvious symbolism inherent in the GOP losing TX-Gov, picking up that seat would also offset our gubernatorial losses in the Rust Belt, at least in the simplistic media terms of "look at this huge, stereotypically Republican state that just elected a Democrat!" It also puts within the realm of possibility that Democrats could win the governorships of California, Florida, AND Texas, taking the GOP from running all of the three most populous states to none of them. (Bonus if we also pick up GA-Gov, which I'm not expecting, but it would be awesome if we did.) Winning those three could also really offset for the fact that Dems are likely to lose more governorships in 2010 simply because they currently have more governorships to lose. The difference is that most of the GOP candidates in places like the Rust Belt and Mid-Atlantic states are pretty weak candidates benefiting from an anti-incumbent atmosphere. Brown, Sink, and now White are strong incumbents who can take care of themselves. Who's more likely to get re-elected if he gets in at all, Bill White or John Kasich?

Anyway, very nice development.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:44:00 PM UTC

Good news

I like White's chances against Perry better than in a Senatorial election, though if it had been a weird special election, who knows.

On the national level, as others have noted, this is important because:

1) If White becomes Governor, he could veto GOP redistricting gerrymanders.

2) If White becomes Governor, that will Demonstrate to the National Party that Texas can increasingly become competitive, and more resources will be devoted to turning it blue, including perhaps contesting it in 2012 or 2016 on the Presidential level.

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by: MattTX2 @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 19:50:41 PM UTC

Rick Perry Fun Fact

He started out as a Democratic state legislator.  I did not know that until I just read his Wikipedia page.  Switched parties in 1989.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 20:01:34 PM UTC

In Texas...

EVERYONE started out as a Democrat.  Seriously... almost every big name republican in that state is a former Dem.

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by: ChadInFL @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 20:11:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's right

Even Phil Graham once was a Democrat way back when.  I remember hearing an interview with Ann Richards several years ago when she talked about the early days of being a progressive activist in Texas in the 1960s.  She said the first thing they tried to do was to chase the right-wingers out of the Democratic Party, and at least make them run as Republicans.

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by: IndianaProgressive @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 20:17:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

John Tower got elected four times to the Senate, and at least in his first couple of elections won because the liberals in the state voted for him rather than the right-wingers (some of whom were even more conservative than Tower.)

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 00:31:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not EVERYONE

Hutchison was never a Democrat, as far as I know, in a political career that spans back to 1972, and the Bushes of course were never Dems.  That speaks to the reality of Texas politics: prior to the 1980s, running as a Republican anywhere outside of Dallas, Houston, or the Panhandle was an exercise in futility.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 00:27:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Almost everyone

Ironically it seems the people perceived as the most conservative republicans nowadays were once democrats and those considered more moderate were always republicans.

But ya, you are right as far as futility of running as a republican in pre-80's Texas goes.  Even Dubya with all his family's money and power lost his only run for Congress back in the 70's.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 00:31:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, there's a reason for that

Dallas and Houston went Republican well before the rural areas did.  The rural areas were sending conservative Democrats to Washington for a long time, but Dallas and Houston were willing to elect Republicans as long ago as the 1960s.

From what I know, Dubya lost his run for Congress in the '70s in large part because of his family's money and power... the Dem in that race (who's now a Republican, Kent Hance) used Bush's prep school and Ivy League pedigree against him.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 01:22:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ya

And Buch only lost 53-47 to incumbent Hance.  I suppose that was a very good showing for a republican in that part of Texas back in 1978.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 01:49:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Correction

Hance was not the incumbent... the seat opened up when Appropriations chairman George Mahon retired.  IIRC, the Republican who'd run against Mahon in the previous election did almost as well as Bush did.

26, white male, TX-24, liberal-leaning independent

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by: TDDVandy @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 02:07:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ahh yes

Just noticed that.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 02:22:20 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

White can beat Perry

there is no way Perry can consolidate all the Strayhorn and Friedman votes from 2006, not against a candidate as solid as White.  At least we got Sharp as a fall-back option in the Senate race, but White really ought to have run for governor once it became obvious Hutchison couldn't win a contested GOP primary anymore.

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by: skaje @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 20:38:24 PM UTC

White News Conf. LIVE now at

http://www.khou.com/home/WATCH...

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 22:15:48 PM UTC

White says he'll "formally decide" by Dec 4th

and then goes into attacking Perry's record as State Gov...looks like he's pretty much decided to jump races.  

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

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by: Shinigami @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 22:31:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So here's the question

Will Rick Perry be the Republican Jon Corzine? It seems like the Republicans ought to have at least one "big name" Governor go down too.

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by: andgarden @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 23:05:12 PM UTC

And

Perry could be taken down for some of the same reasons Corzine was: toll roads and property taxes.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 23:09:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bill White is the kind of candidate

who could take Perry down.  He is very strong for a Democrat where Perry is weak for a Republican, among the moderate and moderate-conservative suburbanites.

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by: JSmith @ Mon Nov 23, 2009 at 23:51:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rick Perry could possibly be the next Jon Corzine

Of course, unlike Corzine, he has actual primary competition, however assuming that he defeats Hutchinson (which seems more likely than not, as Texas Republicans seem to be among the most teabaggy of all Republicans) he very well could go down in state that has had a strong Republican prescence since the 1990s. Perry isn't just merely conservative, he is brushing with the far-right with his previous comments on Texas succeding from the USA because of Obama's ecnomic policies, and just like nearly every other incumbent governor he is getting hammered by the bad ecnomny.

I do think that a Bill White/Rick Perry match up would still lean Perry's way, one example being that Perry's  job approval rating is better than it was in 2006 (most polls I've seen shown both him and Hutchinson having similar approval ratings statewide, a net positive) as well as the very strong Republican lean of the state. Unlike New Jersey, Texas hasn't flirted with the Democrats in a while except with a few polls of Cornyn and Noriega in 2008, on the other hand Bill White is probably the strongest statewide Dem contender in Texas for a long while, similar to Chris Christie for the GOP in NJ.

Still this would be quite an entertaining race and considering its size, one of the most closely watched guberntorial races of 2010 assuming that Bill White takes the plunge and actually gets in.

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by: Jaxx Raxor @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 00:06:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

How is Texas so republican?

I usually think of places like Dallas and Houston as being more moderate. And wasn't GW Bush more moderate than rightwing while he was governor? But I guess all those rural areas have gotten more red & conservative over the years. Bill White would certainly be the best candidate the Dems could put up. Oh and Kay Bay was stupid for trying to pivot so far to the right in order to beat Perry. Freshmen political science majors would have known that. While she's not a liberal Republican she was never going to convince anybody she's down with the teabag crowd. She screams establishment republican.  

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by: Lila @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 18:56:56 PM UTC

Dallas and Houston are a big part of the problem

Those cities aren't automatic Democratic votes (Dallas has a GOP mayor) and have some large Republican blocs within them, making their impact less felt than say, New York City is in New York state.  Their suburbs are also very GOP-friendly, which is what killed the party back in the 1990's as the state expanded in size.  Also, the rural areas are VERY conservative - all put together it is difficult to overcome.  No disrespect to any Texas Democrats here either, but the state Dem party hasn't really done much the past decade and has fielded lousy candidates for statewide office, not to mention hasn't raised nearly the kind of money needed to be competitive in such an expensive state.

I agree with you totally on KBH.  She let Perry frame the debate and has been playing to his strengths ever since.  I think her campaign felt that she was a shoo-in and got totally blindsided.

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by: DFLer @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 20:09:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also

While Hispanics make up over 35% of the population in Texas they only comprised about 20% of actual voters according to exit polls.  And 2008 was a very high turnout year for that group.  Their population growth greatly overstates their political power unfortunately.

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by: ChadInFL @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 20:31:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Texas is what the Republicans think America looks like

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by: andgarden @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 20:56:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Where is Molly Ivins when we need her?

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Nov 24, 2009 at 22:00:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Political Power will catch up, Ref interesting data from WCVI

Per their data, ref PDF - http://www.wcvi.org/data/demog...

Hispanics will make up maybe 30% of the voting population in 2016, perhaps enough to make TX a swing state by then.

Eyeballing the trends, Hispanics will be about 1/2 of eligeble TX voters by 2028.

(Disclaimer, I know nothing about WCVI, so can say nothing about their credibility. It's just what I see from a google.)

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by: tietack @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 06:27:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which is why immigration reform is necessary

If Dems can get through real immigration reform it could legalize millions of people who would be forever grateful to the party and probably lifelong Dem voters in states like Texas.

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by: ChadInFL @ Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 15:20:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]