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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 4:44 PM EST


So during a visit to the Miami headquarters, Crist took small nibbles of three products coming to a Burger King near you: the "Bourbon Whopper", "BK fire-grilled ribs" and funnel cake sticks.

"Oh my word, that is delicious. Get it away from me," after taking a bite of the hamburger with the familiar toppings of lettuce, tomato, onions and mayo and an added kick of bacon, pepperjack cheese and Bourbon sauce. Of the ribs he said, "Unbelievable...that is delicious. Superb." He declared the funnel cake sticks -- which he declined to dip in the icing to save himself a few calories -- "kind of light and flaky, like a beignet." He added, "Probably dangerous for my diet to have come here."

(SOURCE)

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James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 204 comments
Poor Crist.
No one should have to eat at Burger King.
Crist in a diet?
He looks like a hite-topped slim jim stick already.
[ Parent ]
Thinking the unthinkable: FL-Sen
Can Meek actually beat Rubio, if it somehow comes to that?
...
...because we do not need a Senator Rubio.  That is for sure.
[ Parent ]
I think so
Crist is most likely going to lose the primary to Rubio, if things continue on their present course. I think it'll be a close race between Meek and Rubio, all dependent on base turnout. Independents probably won't like either of them all that much, but I bet they would lean toward Rubio. Meek doesn't seem to confident either, with his mother holding his House seat for him.
[ Parent ]
fl-sen
is florida a closed or open primary? clearly thatll make a huge difference
[ Parent ]
closed

[ Parent ]
Closed
Though I would say Florida republican primary voters are quite a bit more "mainstream" and not entirely the teabagger variety you find in most southern states.  This gives Crist at least a reasonable chance at beating a far-right candidate like Rubio.

[ Parent ]
Does Florida still have runoff primaries, if necessary?

[ Parent ]
Nope.
If they had runoffs, Harris would likely not have been the nominee to get clobbered by Bill Nelson.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
He can only if
Rubio paints himself as a right-wing teabagger during the campaign, and Meek doesn't let him move from that box.

Basically, if I were Meek's campaign manager, I would run my campaign assuming Rubio will win the nomination.  If Crist wins, Meek loses, so you assume that Rubio wins, and plan on how to run your campaign that way.

[ Parent ]
If Crist survives the primary...
The reason he was untouchable was because his daunting favorables.  Look at him now!  IIRC the most recent poll was 47-48 / 40 or so.  While he'd still be favored against Meek, Crist lost that "inevitability" mantle when Rubio made him start to sweat and make his favorables drop like he's wearing concrete shoes.  
[ Parent ]
Not likely
In a Meek-Rubio race I'd put Meek as roughly a 3:1 underdog.  If the race were in 2008 with Obama on the ballot he could beat a nut like Rubio, but in a midterm I doubt it.
[ Parent ]
I dunno
Rubio strikes me as a very proud super conservative.  He is going to be running very far to the right during the primary and he's going to stay there during the general.  

All Meek has to do is use that against him, talk about something to excite the base, do some things that moderates will like that the base won't really care about, and you've got an instant plan to win.  

If I were Meek, I'd research everything I ever agreed with Crist on and the first commercials I run after Crist loses the primary is how I agree with Crist on this and that and that to get the Crist supporters to like me.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Do we know...
when DKos is releasing the Crist as Dem numbers? Or have I missed them?
[ Parent ]
Already released
Here:

QUESTION: If Charlie Crist were to switch to the Democratic Party and the 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Charlie Crist, the Democrat, and Marco Rubio, the Republican?
CRIST RUBIO UNDECIDED
  45         34           21

http://www.dailykos.com/statep...

[ Parent ]
I would
welcome Charlie Crist to the Democratic Party with open arms.  I think he'd come to be a reliable vote if he was in the Senate with a D by his name.

Hopefully he'll realize that he's better off as a Dem.  Kos should run a Democratic Primary between Meek and Crist; I'd be curious whether Rubio or Meek would have a better chance of beating him.

[ Parent ]
He'd be another Arlen Specter
which for Florida is probably just fine.
[ Parent ]
Crist really has no core values
He's all about getting elected.  If he sees that Rubio overtakes him badly in the polls I have no doubt he'd switch to D or I.  I imagine he'd adapt if he did run as a Democrat and would probably be a bit to the right of Florida's other Senatr Bill Nelson, which works for me.
[ Parent ]
Crist won't let it come to that
He won't let himself get Scozzofaved by Rubio.  I predict that if he continues to bleed conservative support he will start touting his moderate record and switches to run as an independent or maybe even a Dem.  Kos ran a 3-way race poll that had Crist as an independent narrowly winning over Meek and Rubio.
[ Parent ]
I say 50/50
Sure Rubio would get a ton of press coverage by slaying the Goliath (Crist), but he's going to be broke from an endeavor like this. While Meek would of been hopefully banking away millions for the short stretch to November. Unless Rubio gets a 3 million dollar infusion the day after he slays Crist, he's not going to be able to contest the airwaves for a few weeks at best.  
[ Parent ]
I'd agree with that
Conservatives will be fired up if they get Rubio, and work their butts off to get him elected.  Are progressives going to be fired up for Meek?  I sorta doubt it.

Which is why I think Markos was sort of floating a "Crist as a Democrat" trial balloon here:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

John McCain: Healthcare for kids?  Not for a Bush-McCain America.

[ Parent ]
Maybe if it begins to become apparent that Meek will loose, Alex Sink will switch races
She could definately beat Rubio.
[ Parent ]
I meant Crist not Meek

[ Parent ]
Doubt it.
Back when Crist wasn't in the race, she wasn't interested.
[ Parent ]
Need Sink as Governor
We could shore up Grayson and Kosmas and pick up at least 1-2 more seats in central Florida with a fairer redistricting.  
[ Parent ]
1-2 more may be stretching it
I imagine if Sink gets elected and forces a compromise map this will likely happen.  This is assuming Kosmas and Grayson survive 2010.

1. Kosmas gets a much better district, eliminatig the more conservative Orange County part of the district and taking in more of her base in Volusia.  Something like a D+1 to D+3 district

2. Grayson gets a marginally better district.  Something like a D+5 district and trending bluer.

3. Klein gets a much more favorable district.  His seat can probably be turned into a rock solid D+8 or better with very little effort.

4. Boyd gets a marginally better district.

5. The new Florida seat is based in the south Orlando suburbs and is basically a tossup seat.

Resulting map would be roughly 16R/10D or 15R/11D with a lot of potential for Dem pickups in the next decade.  Those three Cuban districts in south Florida are really impossible to make any more republican than they already are.  We will pick those off eventually.  And Young's seat FL-10 really cannot be made more republican either.  That one has a good chance of flipping when Young retires.

Ironically even if republicans get McCollum elected Governor and control the map there is little they can do to make the map worse than it is now.  They may have to concede either one or both FL-08 and FL-24 in order to create a new 26th district that is favorable for them.

[ Parent ]
Will Florida get more districts?
And is there a way to reconstitute Karen Thurman's district or is that being used for Grayson?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
You would have to do something with Gainesville
it is in Corinne Brown's district, where it is being packed in a GOP gerrymander.  Gainesville should be either placed in Kosmas' district (if she survives) or in the new Central FL district.
[ Parent ]
Bingo
Exastly what I was saying.  Brown's district snakes all the way from Jacksoville, through Gainesville and Daytona Beach into Orlando gobbling up as many blacks as possible.  And even still there are just barely enough blacks to get to about 50%.  There may not be by 2012.  I sure wish that monstrosity could be broken up.
[ Parent ]
Probably still one seat
Until about 2005 it was projected Florida would get 2 new seats.  But the recession and housing bubble killed that chance.  We actually lost population in 2008 for the first time in ages.  I believe Florida is still nearly certain to get one new seat, though I'd have to check the census numbers.

If memory serves Thurman's old district was just the current seat minus some heavily republican senior territiry on the west coast and with the addition of liberal Gainesville.  It's very doubtful republicans would go along with that as it would hurt Brown-Waite and probably break up Corinne Brown's monstrosity of a black majority district.  Doubt any tinkering with FL-05 would touch Grayson's territory though.

[ Parent ]
I believe he can
If Rubio rallies the teabaggers and essentially knocks Crist out of politics, I think there will be a huge backlash among moderate independents that have been friendly to Crist so far.  Meek has a somewhat centrist voting record, and he's raising massive sums of money...FL-Sen is far from being done.  If Crist loses, it will shoot up on the target list.
[ Parent ]
It only will
if Meek begins laying the groundwork for beating Rubio now.  He can't dither until August and come out unprepared to take on Rubio.  
[ Parent ]
Add me to the "Meek probably can't win" bandwagon...
He seems like a pretty fantastic guy to me, but unless the GOP Primary results in enough liberal Republicans defecting to Meek or enough teabagging right-wingers staying home, I can't see how Meek pulls this off. He should prove fine on the fundraising circuit and against Rubio, he'd probably shore up the Dem base, but he doesn't look like a winning candidate to me. Though, for the record, nor did Corrine Brown or Ron Klein.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget that ...
... the GOP primary will be held in September. That means that Rubio will spend the next 10 months campaigning as a conservative, and Crist will presumably do his best to make him look like an extremist, and then he'll have less than 2 months to turn around and campaign against Meek. I think Meek has a chance.
[ Parent ]
Wow, a September primary?
Didn't know that.  That's not much time for either Crist or Rubio to rally Republicans together.  Whoever gets knocked out in the primary is going to have a lot of really sore losers on their side.
[ Parent ]
August 24th eom

[ Parent ]
Race and Electability
Meek's race as a factor in the Senate race. It appears Meek does not excite the base but since he is African American, will he be able to bring African Americans out to vote? In an off year election, their votes should be pretty important. However, if Meek uses his race in the campaign, he will probably lose alot of ground in northern Florida, a bit in the I-4 corridor and definitely a bit with the Jewish voters in Broward and Palm Beach counties. If Rubio gets the nomination, Meek probably has a better chance at winning voters reluctant to vote for a minority candidate. The reason is that immigration appears to be a bigger problem. In 2004, Betty Castor did pretty well in northern Florida rural counties against Mel Martinez.

Something else I noticed is how Meek appears to be a complex candidate. When I look at him, I see a new fresh rising star in Florida politics. When I look again, I see a candidate of the establishment and the party machines who is dry and not new. It looks like most people here believe Meek cannot excite the base. What do you think?

For more election analysis, visit frogandturtle.blogspot.com

[ Parent ]
Sorry
 I meant to say "for voters reluctant to vote for a minority candidate, immigration seems to be the bigger problem," instead of, "Immigration seems to be the bigger problem."  

For more election analysis, visit frogandturtle.blogspot.com
[ Parent ]
"Oh my word" indeed
As a gay man, I can confirm that only gay men and Mary Poppins say things like "oh my word." You gotta love the divesity in this race. The next Senator from Florida is either going to be an African-American, a Cuban-American, or a silver-haired twink with a tanning bed.
"Get it away from me"...
is also pretty conclusive.
[ Parent ]
that's what I was thinking re "Oh my word!"
   but as a glum hetero dude I thought it more polite not to write it.  Now I have that description stuck in my head, "a silver-haired twink with a tanning bed."  LOL!
[ Parent ]
"Twink"?

[ Parent ]
North Dakota Senate
Is governor John Hoeven still considering challenging Byron Dorgan?

Apparently Sabato still thinks so and I was wondering what everyone else thinks

I read that article he wrote too
Sounds like mere speculation.  Dorgan is still very popular.  I'd be surprised if Hoevan runs.
[ Parent ]
If he were considering a Senate bid,
I think he might wait for 2012; he would serve out the rest of his term (and he appears to quite like the job), and Kent Conrad is less popular than Dorgan.
[ Parent ]
There's a Zogby poll out
that show Hoeven wiping the floor with Dorgan, even while they're both popular.  
[ Parent ]
Zogby?
That's a dubious source.  Even worse than Rasmussen this early in a race.  I'd wait and see what a reliable pollster says.

Though I must say I am pleasantly surprised Dorgan has been quiet yet supportive of the curent health care reform, unlike Conrad.  You'd think he would at least posture before supporting it considering he's up for re-election nest year.

[ Parent ]
The Poll...
At least the Poll has indeed sent some shockwaves through North Dakota and guess what some GOP Blogs there even predicting that Hoeven will enter the Race in January.

"But a possible run from Hoeven is still very much in the works, and with word I'm hearing having Hoeven announcing a run in January of 2010, Dorgan should be watching his p's and q's onhealth care right now."

Dorgan better watch out over his back.

[ Parent ]
The longer times goes on, the less likely
but then again, that's what I said about Castle.
[ Parent ]
I think Hoeven will run
Lately, it seems like GOP always gets their man (or woman). I expect either Guiliani or Pataki to run against Gillibrand. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Tommy Thompson ran against Feingold. Being a long time Democrat, I always expect the worst.
[ Parent ]
At least Crist will enjoy the GOP caucus.

JUXTAPOSITION
WTF

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
JUXTAPOSITION WTF
"GOP Caucus" [It's Raining Men music video]

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Question regarding political activities of ambassadors versus U.S. Attorneys
Georgia State Senator David Adelman (D-42nd-Atlanta, Decatur) was recently nominated to be Ambassador to Singapore.  Before, however, he was heavily rumored to be in line to be U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Georgia.  Is there a difference in laws regarding the amount and type of political activities allowable to ambassadors versus U.S. Attorneys?  For example, what are the laws regarding fundraising for candidates, hosting events, speaking at events, etc.

I'm asking because Adelman's former Chief of Staff Elena Parent is running next year in the 81st House District in what is currently our biggest pickup opportunity.  Does being an ambassador give Adelman more leeway to help his former staffer than he'd have as a U.S. Attorney?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

For what it's worth, here is Elena Parent's website:
http://www.elenaparent.com

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Anyone know?


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Here's a made for TV ad for Meek to run
If Rubio is his general election opponent.  Attack him on the Fair Tax.  I listened to Rubio's intervire on the Todd Long radio show (ya, the Todd Long who ran for the R FL-08 nomination in 2008) and Rubio stated that he supported the Fair Tax 100%.  Mainstream Florida voters don't want a near 30% tax on everything they buy.
I think this was the dark horse reason
why Tom Perriello beat Virgil Goode.  Perriello hammered Goode on his support of the "Fair Tax".
[ Parent ]
Grayson used it to with great effect
One of his better ads was the one attacking Keller on the Fair Tax.
[ Parent ]
Radio vs video
Is there any VIDEO of Rubio saying he supports the fair tax?  Somebody should ask him about the fair tax on camera!
[ Parent ]
He would if asked
I guarantee he'd gush over the Fair Tax anytime he's asked on video or radio.  He's going full throttle for the teabaggers.  While in the state legislature he actually proposed eliminating property taxed altogether and increase the state sales tax by 2%.  He's generally in favor of anything that shifts the tax burden from the rich to the poor and middle class.
[ Parent ]
Anyone up for giving Betty Castor another chance
She got 48% (and lost a point) against Mel Martinez in a republican leaning year where there probably tons of voter fraud in Florida. I think she would definately be able to beat Rubio.
She absolutely could
She was a very good candidate just running in a bad year.  
[ Parent ]
Indeed
That was one of the losses that got me most depressed in 2004 (after the big one, of course).
[ Parent ]
Even if Crist does make it through the primary
He will be bloodied to an extent that he will be financially weekend and will be srewed up idealogically. In addition, his approvals have been going down. Either way I think that Betty Castor could win. In 2004, She won Hillsborough county by 5%. She is very good at getting crossover votes. I say we start a draft Betty Castor movement and make an attempt at picking up this senate seat.
[ Parent ]
Question: Will Meek be pissed off?
Because that, and how pissed off his supporters would be, would be a major factor.

Remember that race will become a factor in what happens, like it or not.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
I really don't care if hurting Meek's feelings is the big a price to pay for picking up a senate seat
Meek has polled at 13% to 18% in a contested primary matchup, meaning his base couldn't be that strong. Get Betty Castor in there now is what I say!
[ Parent ]
Not about hurting his feelings
but about how much of a backlash there would be.

I agree that I wouldn't particularly care about Meek's feelings, but a movement backlash could be a big deal.  Especially if it's against Crist if Crist tries the odds that Arlen Specter's dealing with.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Forcing a black man out of the race for an eldery white woman
um...I'm not worried about Meek's hurt feelings in this scenario
[ Parent ]
We don't need to force Meek out
Let Betty Castor run in the late August 24th primary. Betty Castor won a 4 person primary in 2004 with 58% of the vote. Castor would win the primary and thus it could be concluded that Meek was given a fair shot. My main concern about Meek is that if he hasn't been able to poll over 18% with multiple people in a primary, he won't stir up much enthusiasm in the democratic base if Rubio runs. On the other hand, Castor would get a lot of crossover appeal and be able to win independents in what is turning into a very high profile senate race.
[ Parent ]
I agree about Castor, but I can't see it happening
Despite the lukewarm poll numbers, Meek's already nailed down a solid chunk of the Florida Dem establishment, and a lot of that was probably geared to scare away Corrine Brown from mounting a challenge. No way would they backtrack and switch to Castor if she hopped into the race.

I do believe Meek's in trouble though, even against Rubio.

[ Parent ]
Nobody knows who Meek is in Florida
Noone would notice if he got strongarmed out of the race since nobody outside his district has ever heard of him.  I have yet to meet a single black person in Central FL who has any idea who Meek is.
[ Parent ]
Meek doesn't have supporters
This guy is so overrated it's not funny.  Almsost nobody outside his district has ever heard of him.
[ Parent ]
Chad, since u know the most about Florida politics, is there any chance that Castor will jump in?
I would love the idea of having two dem senators from FL and sending another women to the senate!
[ Parent ]
No idea
I've heard next to nothing about her for a few years now.  Just looked her up on wikipedia and it appears she has been back working in administration at the University of South Florida.

Her daughter who is congresswoman for FL-11 would likely also be a good candidate.  But I think she has ruled out the race.

If Crist continues to bleed support and Rubio starts looking like the republican frontrunner I suspect a lot of Democrats will start thinking about jumping in.

[ Parent ]
Well, you can safely count out all of the following...
Kathy Castor, Corrine Brown, Alcee Hastings, Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Ron Klein, Luis Garcia, Manny Diaz, John Marks, Lois Frankel, and Stacy Ritter. They've all endorsed Meek, as have Bill Nelson, Bob Graham, and Bill Clinton.

The most high-profile Florida Dem who hasn't officially backed Meek is Rep. Suzanne Kosmas, but I highly doubt she's interested in running.

[ Parent ]
What of prominent Ds in the state legislature?
The entry of Franklin Sands (House Minority Leader) in Wikipedia sounds especially interesting, as he lost money to Madoff.
[ Parent ]
Interested in MN-Gov, CT-Gov, VT-Gov and in Colorado

Would be very interesting for me know new polls for this races.

Ramussen not please :)

hard to poll Minnesota
Just because of the sheer chaos of the race... and Colorado has been polled fairly regularly by PPP (McInnis generally leads Ritter by 4-5%).
[ Parent ]
IA-02: 3-way GOP primary to face Loebsack
and none of them are moderate Republicans, despite the fact that this is a D+7 district. The GOP has completely lost the concept of "good fit for the district."
IA-01/IA-Sen 2014
Iowa Republicans are bashing Bruce Braley (IA-01) over the possible transfer of Gitmo prisoners to the Thomson Correctional Center in Illinois, just across the river from Clinton, Iowa. (The Des Moines Register reported that people in Clinton support the idea because they think it will bring jobs and new residents to the area.)

I believe the Republican attacks on Braley are aimed at a wider audience. He is very likely to run for Senate if Harkin retires in 2014 or Grassley retires in 2016.

Republicans have a candidate against Braley for 2010; Dubuque businessman and conservative newspaper columnist Rod Blum. I am not at all worried about Braley holding this D+5 district, although in theory a "perfect storm" of rising unemployment, low D turnout because of a demoralized base, and a Republican with unusual strength in Dem-leaning Dubuque could make this race competitive.

IA-Gov: Chuck Norris for Bob Vander Plaats
Chuck Norris endorsed Bob Vander Plaats in a newspaper column six months ago, and last night he held a $5K per couple fundraiser for Vander Plaats at his Texas ranch. Not clear how much money was raised--probably $100K to $200K. Vander Plaats is still going to be outspent by Terry Branstad in the GOP primary, but he should be able to raise a decent amount of out of state money. The November issue of Focus on the Family's magazine had Vander Plaats on the cover.

Last Sunday's Des Moines Register Iowa poll was horrific for Governor Chet Culver; the only good news is that Vander Plaats is citing it as proof that he could win the general (he led Culver 45-38). The more Republicans who believe that, the better. The last thing we want is for Branstad to run away with the primary.

I am wondering whether national Teabaggers might take more interest in the Iowa gubernatorial primary. The problem is, Vander Plaats is much of a religious conservatives' candidate.

Tonight (Saturday) is the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson Jackson dinner; it will be livestreamed here beginning at 6:30 pm central. I don't know the order of speakers; Culver will be on at some point. Joe Biden's the headliner.

My races of interest
ID-01: Having Minnick in office in an R+19 district is so awesome, and I want this awesome to continue.  Plus, ID-01 was my consolation prize for us losing WY-AL.  But I'm hoping that Minnick can hold on because he's gotten first elected in a presidential year, not an off year.

VA-05: I've heard some very nice comments about Perriello's being one of the more principled and straightforward politicians.

FL-08: Obvious reason is obvious.

CT-Sen: I really want Dodd to stay on.  He's quite progressive; there isn't much in the way of issue-based reasons to dump him.  I want to see his numbers improve, though unfortunately I'm not around CT to actually talk to people about him, heh.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Dodd
Chris Dodd is a good senator and I don't want him out of the Senate, but I worry that his brand is too damaged to win next year. I'd love to see his numbers improve, but if they haven't by the beginning of the year, I would hope he would know it would be better for him to retire than to let the GOP win the seat.

Frankly, I'm not convinced he won't announce a retirement between January and March if things haven't improved. Dick Blumenthal will absolutely waltz into this seat if he retires.

[ Parent ]
I suspect Dodd has a similar trajectory as Corzine
He'll lag big time in the polls until the final month or two when he brings in every Dem celebrity under the sun, spends money like hell, portrays Rob Simmons as too conservative a Senator for Connecticut, and closes the gap. Alas, he still loses come election night.

Funny, I feel like Linda McMahon is about as much a threat to Simmons' shot at the GOP nod as Steve Lonegan was to Chris Christie's. As in, she more annoys the shit out of Simmons than ever really stands as a legit threat to his getting the nomination.

[ Parent ]
There is a huge difference McMahon and Lonegan
McMahon has tons and tons of moneyyyy
[ Parent ]
I can see how Idaho gets an advantage
from having a Representative in the majority party, but please explain how the Democrats really benefit from having Minnick in office. I'm not asking that in order to be argumentative, but in order to learn something, because I don't see any significant benefit at this juncture. And yes, this is a serious question, and I promise to pay attention to your answer and treat it seriously.
[ Parent ]
Do you not agree that after having voted for a D once
it is easier to vote for a D again?  All electoral and social change is like that.  Small steps lead to bigger strides.

The blueing of Idaho and Wyoming is a journey of a million miles, and the replacement of a total idiot with someone with a "D" next to his name is a significant step.

Also, to assert that Minnick and Sali would vote exactly the same 100% of the time is simply false.

[ Parent ]
He's clearly better than Sali
You won't get any disagreement from any reasonable person on that score.

I'd like to see some evidence that voting for one person for a party does have some lasting electoral effects, before I'll assume it to be true because it sounds vaguely intuitive. And I'll give you a salient example: New York City has voted for Republican Mayors several times in a row, without much appreciable effect on voting for any other office I can think of.

[ Parent ]
It's not just the D
You have to look at and understand history.

RC Byrd was a puss-oozing racist worm of a guy while in Congress 55 years ago.  He is 1000 times the "man" he is now than we was then.  Likewise, his contiuents were largely pure racists.  While some still exist exactly like those 55 years ago, the reality is phenomenal progressive change has occured in incremental steps during the lifetime of one man's political career.

One progressive step leads to another.  Healthcare with an opt out will have 50 states opting in in a decade if it is run properly, and in 55 years the sky is the limit.

All this starts with the evolution of people like Byrd from worm-like to decent man, both politicians and people.

There is simply no denying it.  Once exposed to "better", people like it and want more, even if largely they want it too slowly.

[ Parent ]
So what about Byrd?
He can easily be countered by pointing to people who started out as Democrats, became Republicans, and either remained racists or got worse. Strom Thurmond and Richard Shelby come to mind. If we accepted the argument that merely because someone has a "D" attached to their name, they're likely to go through a transformation into downright decency, then if David Duke managed to win a Democratic primary and were running against a non-racist moderate Republican, people should vote for Duke because of the magical "D" associated with his name, and keeping in mind that Byrd was much like Duke in his racial attitudes decades ago.

Anyway, back to this claim that people get into the habit of voting for Democrats, is that really a good argument to bring up with West Virginia? That's a state that continues to vote Democratic locally (out of "habit"???), to a large extent but certainly not all the time, but it has become pretty much of a bedrock Republican state in presidential elections lately.

Unless you provide actual evidence that voting for one Democrat in one election makes it statistically more likely for voters to vote Democratic in other elections, I will continue to regard your claim as just that - an unproven claim - and operate without regard to it.

[ Parent ]
Ok on Idaho and Wyoming
But this logic is completely incorrect if applied to, for example, white rural Alabama, which is trending in every way towards the GOP.
[ Parent ]
That's just fiction
You keep making what is a wholly illogical argument.

Yes, the rural south is trending Republican.  That is neither the issue or even interesting.  the question is:  what is more likely to lead these rural Alabamans to move left even one inch, to vote for Bobby Bright or Jim DeMint?

It's a question of degrees.  We can't just shoot all the rural southerners.  What we can hope for is even if they move to the right, they move less rar to the right, by even one single inch.

As we saw in that post a few days ago, Bright is the furthest to the left of his district's voter's views of any blue dog.  

While I agree longterm prospects are better in Wyoming and Idaho, what we should be lookign to achieve in the south is the exact same thing, even if the goal is simply to slow the race to right that is going on there.  Voting for a Dem in Alabama is less a hurling to the right than voting for fanatacial wingnuts who make national dialogue impossible.

If this is the choice, I want Bobby Bright in Congress, not David Duke, and that is pretty close to the choice now in the rural south.

[ Parent ]
I don't see the choice
As being between Bobby Bright and, say, Martha Roby. I see the choice as being between Bobby Bright and, say, Steve Pougnet or Bill Hedrick or Ami Bera. I think the money we'll spend on trying to save Bright would be better off trying to knock off some of those very vulnerable California Republicans. Not only will the Dems who win those seats be a zillion times more progressive than Bright, but they won't need to have their asses saved every single cycle.
[ Parent ]
Yes but
If you were a dem in CA in 2008 and couldn't get elected, how excited should I be about them in 2010?  Didn't Obama do well in CA?  I worry about California turning into fool's gold due to close calls.  CA is expensive, AL is not.  CA district's current congressional district setup yields about what you'd expect, if anything we should fund some re-distrcting effots in CA.

I think we might be better served waiting for some of the CA reps to retire and then feast on open seats.  I get sort of worried hearing about the near misses in one cycle leading to takeover opportunities next cycle.  Its at best 50/50.

[ Parent ]
CA is fertile ground for gains in the House
   especially after the redistricting. In 2010 we might gain a seat. In 2012, well, let's just say it is a potential disaster movie for the GOP. With halfway decent district lines we should pick up 6 to 10 or more seats. Of course we have to elect a Democratic Governor and we don't even have a candidate yet. (Time to s#!t or get off the pot, Jerry!) While the state legislative district lines will be drawn by a commission, the Congressional redistricting will be done by the legislature which is almost two thirds Democratic.
[ Parent ]
6-10 seats in CA for 2012?
Sorry but that's not happening.

They will do something bi-partisan, you'll see.  Even with a D governor it will work out that way, god knows why, but it will.  

I'm still worried CA wil be bankrupt in the next 4 years, economic recovery or not CA has some huge problems to deal with, and an entirely democratic legislature will get praise/blame depending on how they manage.

[ Parent ]
The current gerrymander
was a result of having many freshmen in shaky districts to protect. If we have the trifecta in redistricting again, then I can see a lot more Republicans being put on notice that they are going to be in danger come 2012, especially with Obama on the ballot and if his approval there holds steady at 60% like it has for most of this year.

And with the stupid 2/3 requirement for budgets and taxes, the Republicans are getting a s#itload of well-deserved blame. If we can get rid of the 2/3 BS, then the Dems will be far better able to look like the adults and clean up the mess we're in, and considering voting, registration, and demographic changes, I just can't see Republicans making a comeback in California at all. It's trending the wrong way for them. And I will not at all be surprised of Obama cracks 2/3 of the vote in California in 2012, especially against Failin'.


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
No it won't
The 2002 incumbent protection map was designed to lock in Dem gains from the election cycles prior to 2002.  It was not some give away to California republicans out of the kindness of their hearts.  Going into 2012 the situation will not be the same at all.  California Dems will have nobody to shore up except McNerney.  There will be a serious gerrymander no doubt, the only question is how many reps they target.  Hopefully it's at least a half dozen repubs and not 2-4.
[ Parent ]
Will will pick up no more than one
unless Bono Mack retires.

We'll get the same cowardly gerrymander, Calvert's district will be made more Democratic by picking up some Dem voters from the surrounding red districts.

You can take it to the bank that the only way we pick up more than two seats is is Campbell is elected Governor.  If Whitamn or Poizner win, we get a map similar to what we have now, and if Brown wins we pick up a Riverside area seat.

[ Parent ]
How does electing
Campbell give us 2 more seats? Please explain your logic.
[ Parent ]
campbell gives us two more seats
because there will be no incumbent protection gerrymander.  

If Democrats are in control we will have the status quo, with too heavily Dem districts so incumbents don't have to get off their lard asses.

For us to gain seats, we need an independant redistricting, which will turn many seats more competitive.

[ Parent ]
Doubt it
There is going to be massie pressure on the Dems in Sacramento to create a gerrymander that will yield at least several more Dem seats come 2012 in order to offset repub gerrymanders in other states.  Just because 2002 was a protection map (out of necessity) does not mean 2012 will be.

Besides, there are certainly plenty of Dems in the CA state legislature who will want a promotion come 2012.  What better way is there than a massive gerrymander yielding many more Dem-leaning seats?

[ Parent ]
2002 was not a protection map out of necessity
That is a pure myth.  Tauscher's district got a compeltely useless influx of Dems, and anyone not totally blind could see the state was trending blue... and still is.

There will be, once again, massive presure from incumbents to cover their own asses.

The idea that Lois Capps will be just fine giving away 12 points of her 68/32 margin to take Elton Gallegly from his 58/42 margin is just fantasy.  It's the most obvious gerrymander out there, and it ain't gonna happen if Dems have control of redistricting.

[ Parent ]
I too was aware
that the state was trending blue, but extremely few people suspected it would trend blue so fast between 2004 and 2008. CA-10, CA-23, etc. may now be 68/32 as per 2008 presidential numbers, but in 2004 they were only about 58/42 Dem, having been tweaked from their previously evenly divided shapes from the 90s. If in 2002 you had told me that the Democratic presidential candidate would almost win Orange County in 2008, I'd have called you crazy. Now I see that a Democratic presidential candidate can come close to winning OC, but remember, you can't realistically expect us all to be psychics. Who in 2002 was expecting California to be 61% Dem in 2008?

And also keep in mind, as I mentioned a while ago, that the new Dems from the late 90s/2000, had their districts maintained the same shape in the 2000s as the 1990s, could very well have been wiped out in an unfriendly Democratic year, as 2002 (when turnout cratered and Greens overperformed) and 2004 turned out to be. (And having a very unpopular D governor certainly did not help.) I wish I could have seen 2000s statewide results with the districts under their 1990s lines.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
I suspect even "incubment protection" will work w/r/t demographics
as they'll change more in CA than the rest of the country.
[ Parent ]
I just dont 6-10 as realistic
What would that change the delegation to in total, like 40-10 or something?

I realize that you COULD gerrymander to that level, I just dont see it happening.  I don't think we can say CA is permanently Democratic either, they'd keep electing Arnold if possible, like NYC with Bloomberg.

[ Parent ]
Keep electing Arnold?
I really doubt that.  If so he's be the first Govenror I can remember who was re-elected with a 20% approval.  Jerry Brown would wipe the floor with him.

And what on earth makes you think California's future is any less Democratic than it is now?  Virtually all of the growth in that state is non-white.

[ Parent ]
Yes.
A gain of 6-10 Democrats would result in a Democratic delegation of 40-44 and a Republican delegation of 9-13. Considering Obama beat McCain in California's congressional districts 42-11, having as few as 10 Republican representatives from California is not at all far-fetched, at least if current trends continue.

And I'm not sure NYC is a valid comparison with California. I am not familiar enough with New York to determine what their demographic trends are, but in California the demographic trends, ie. increasing Hispanic share of the electorate, do point to continued strong Democratic wins. Obama greatly overperformed Kerry in California (Kerry by 10 to Obama by 23, a Democratic shift of 13), even accounting for the national popular vote shift (Bush by 2 to Obama by 6, a Democratic shift of 8), while New York State's shift was identical with the national shift (Kerry by 18 to Obama by 26, a Democratic shift of 8). (And then the bigger Dem shifts in NY state occurred upstate, around NY-20 and 23, while NYC remained static and in some parts even trended a little Republican, as well as Long Island.)

And also, Bloomberg was not elected by a fluke. Both Republicans elected statewide in California got lucky either by running in an off-off year that was also a free-for-all (Arnold '03), or facing an opponent that nobody liked (Arnold '06 and Poizner). Jerry Brown is no Phil Angelides, Cruz Bustamante, or Gray Davis for that matter.

And anyway, even if Arnold could run for another term, he'd either lose the primary to a teabagger (he lost GOP support from the tax increase signed in February as part of the emergency budget deal) or be so bloodied that even a second-tier Democrat could beat him. (He lost Dem/liberal Indie support from the 2005 special election fiasco and was only able to attract enough of them in 06 to win due to facing an opponent that nobody liked.)

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
Exactly
"Democrats" like Bright aren't worth the cost.  Not monetarily.  Not in allowing them to build seniority and possibly a (sub)committee chairmanship (see Baucus, Max).  Not in the damage they do when they reinforce Republican talking points and are used to bolster Republican arugments.  Not in the distractions they provide.

Primary ass clowns like Bright, and if that doesn't happen, let them fall.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
I fail to see how having David Duke be chairman
would be better than Baucus.

It's a mindboggling philosphy to primary a critter to the left of his district, and keep him from seniority, because it means we become the minority party, and the wingnuts become chairmen.

[ Parent ]
Duke wouldnt be chairmen
if it werent Baucus, nor would it be some other Republican.  It would be Rockefeller and I sure as shit would rather have him as committee chairman of Finance.  (This is making a pretty big assumption by not tolerating conservatives in our caucus we lose the majority.  That definitely depends.)
[ Parent ]
Not after 2010, but after 2012, it could change
I see no chance, even in a modest Red tidal wave, that we lose the majority in the Senate in 2010.

But for 2012 and 2014, the seats that we have to defend will be more than difficult. If we lose more than 2-3 seats in 2010, it's hard to see how we keep the majority in the Senate at least after 2014.

Exception - if there's a LBJ-style landslide in 2012.

[ Parent ]
Which is what will likely happen in 2012
The GOP almost certainly will nominate Sarah Palin or someone else completely unelectable like Goldwater or McGovern.  And Obama will beat them by around 20%.  
Palin will struggle to get more than 15-20% in the Northeast, and 20-25% in places like California.  Such performances will like clean out a lot of GOP Congresspeople.

[ Parent ]
I don't like Palin as much as the next liberal, but that's a bit much...
If Palin somehow garners the nomination (which I for one think is highly unlikely), I can't imagine she scores any less than 30% in most of the the Dem strongholds, with the exception of just a few of the most liberal NE states (VT/MA/RI). When it comes down to it, I can't picture Republicans siding with Obama over Palin, and even if Obama's popular in 2012, she shouldn't have a problem netting at least 35-40% of Independents.

Of course, to the contrary, if Palin's the nominee, the Republicans will probably lose MT/AZ/MO, and that certainly won't be a fun picture for them. Though, to the contrary of that, if Obama's underwater with Independents, he might be losing NC/IN no matter what.

[ Parent ]
I disagree
Palin is considered unqualified by many moderate Repubs and independents.  Many of these people wouldn't consider their vote a vote for Obama, but rather a vote to save the country from crazy Sarah, who is one of the most dangerous and evil people in the history of this country.

I think Palin would get 80% of Repubs, maybe 40% of Indies, and 5% of Dems.  That would add up to about 35-40% of the electorate.

[ Parent ]
Reagan didn't break 60%
Nixon and Johnson just barely. I can't see Obama doing it even against Palin. The color of his skin being the primary reason. He isn't winning Arkansas, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma etc under any circumstances. Actually, I would be amazed if he wins any state in 2012 outside Missouri, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arizona and possibly South Carolina.
[ Parent ]
I think he had an outside shot
at Texas, Kansas and Nebraska...and even West Virginia if some of his policies dramatically improve life in Appalachia.
[ Parent ]
Probably not Nebraska
I could see Obama winning NE-1 and NE-2, but getting crushed in NE-3 badly enough to lose the state.
[ Parent ]
Obama might not get to 60
but Palin won't break 40%.  And she'll do significantly better in the electoral college than did Mondale, because Palin's total in some of the heavily Dem areas (Northeast, West Coast) could be record lows.  I wouldn't be surprised if Palin is in the teens in some Northeastern states, and in the 20s in many other states.

Palin would certainly win (even with less than 40% performance): TN, AR, OK, AL, LA, MS, WY, ID, UT, NE (but may lose NE-1 and NE-2).  That is at least 63 EV.

[ Parent ]
Maybe
All I know is it won't be a close election. Blowout either way.
[ Parent ]
Best and worst case Obama/Palin scenarios, IMO...
Best:
Obama - 451
Palin - 87

Worst:
Obama - 338
Palin - 200

Likely:
Obama - 357
Palin - 181

[ Parent ]
Why bring up cost?
I wouldn't spend time scraping the lint out of my pocket for Bright. But I don't live in Montgomery.

As for saving their asses, as long as we are fighting on the red side of the dial, that is a massive victory.

There are only 10 D+ seats held by Republicans, and we should get at least three of those this time.  That means Team Red is going to be spending their pennies fichting to get back R+doubledigits districts.  Wonderful.

If I could trade Bright for Hedrick, fine.  But that isn't the trade.  The trade is Bright for David Duke.  

We should focus on Hedrick, but what we should not EVER do is all these attacks on Bright when he is to the left of his district.  People to the right of their districts, like Specter, are ones we should be dissatisfied with and try to get better.

[ Parent ]
Quite right, these naysaysers sound like Rahmbo
people who focus just on close races for politicos deemed "important".

I believe Howard Dean would be aghast at all of these people who would let blue dogs float away on their own icebergs.

[ Parent ]
Howard Dean would be aghast at Democrats acting like Republicans.
"Why in the world are Democrats supporting Bush's unilateral war?"

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I don't think our responses are mutually exclusive
Dean is a party man too, however, so I think he'd mute his comments about the war, as long as President Obama is staying in Afghanistan.
[ Parent ]
No, they're not mutually exclusive.
My point is the party is stronger when it delivers, when it has a base that will turn out, when it has a relatively clear platform, when it can differentiate itself from the Republicans in a way other than "We're not Republicans."  And you can't do that when you have a shitload of conservatives holding you back.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Appreciate your response, but
it takes less w/r/t progressive positions to differentiate oneself from Rs in some places.
[ Parent ]
Because resources are limited.
Many used to air independent expenditures for Bright or Minnick or Marshall or Griffith or Kratovil can be used on far better Democrats like Shea-Porter or Periello or Kagen or for a host of Democratic challengers more likely to be good Democrats.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I would love to have the Southern rural Repubs
to elect more Michele Bachmanns, Joe Wilsons, and David Dukes.  It would make it much easier to portray the GOP as an extremist racist party out of touch with the rest of the country.
[ Parent ]
Absolutely
It's a godsend for us to have more of the Republicans' numbers be undiagnosed paranoid schizophrenics, warmongers, bigots, and misanthropes, especially when they do it publicly.  Jean Schmidt's "Cowards cut and run" bullshit was gold for us.  Michelle Bachmann's paranoid ramblings are gold for us.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Not really a godsend...
Bachmann is not that well known outside the 'roots, she just isn't.  And the Bachmann insanity didnt help us, it hurt.  A bunch of people sent a whole bunch money to El Tinkelburg (spelling?) running against her and he still lost.  That money could have been better spent elsewhere.
[ Parent ]
Um, they aren't extremists when they are the majority
And wishing lunatics on people in those districts is flat out mean.  That is a horrible philosophy.

A sensible philosophy is to have Duke-types spewing their hatred, and losing to Bright-types.

The right idea is they run these crazies, and they lose lose lose, and people keep pulling the D lever.

[ Parent ]
No I'd much rather them be the face
of the GOP.  And the white rural racists who voted 90% against Barack Obama, well they deserve the lunatics they vote for.  The only way that the GOP will ever moderate is by losing several elections in a row.

I would actually go much further and try to strip all pork and gov't subsidies from the white rural South.  If they want to elect Jim DeMints, then they deserve Jim DeMint policies.

[ Parent ]
That would be useful if the GOP were never anywhere near
the prospect of gaining real power.

However, that's not the case.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
They really aren't
The GOP today are like the Goldwaterites or the McGovernites.  

They will pick up seats in 2010, but mostly in the South, and not as many as some think.

[ Parent ]
Hardly
We have people here wishing we would lose our majority, the death to the blue dogs nonsense.

We are a majority party because of the blue dogs.  If they lose, we are in the hands of the Bachmans and DeMints.  And despite all those advocating that, I fail to see how sayin "Chairman deMint" is going to get us health care or progressive change.

[ Parent ]
Wow. It's piled high and deep there.
1. No one has said anything about wishing to lose our majority.  Stop making shit up.

2. We are NOT in the majority because of the Blue Dogs.  Over a dozen represent Obama districts and another handful represent marginally Republican districts.  We'd do just fine without them.

3. Chairman Baucus and Chairman Lieberman and Chairman Lincoln aren't doing much for us either.    

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
This is so cynical it borders on treason..
I would love if the GOP actually went back to being a sensible and prudent alternative. I don't support the Democrats because of some intrinsic distaste for the Republican Party, but rather for what the Republicans stand for now. A lack of a serious alternative is actually hurting both parties.

Dwight Eisenhower was a Republican, and by most standards a damn good president too. I would much rather have a Republican party composed of Eisenhowers than Sarah Palins. I care about the well-being of my country too much to think otherwise.

[ Parent ]
I agree!
The country comes first; humiliating the Republicans comes second.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Cut out your personal attacks
Calling me a traitor is as disgusting as it gets.

I would love if the GOP actually went back to being a sensible and prudent alternative.

This is never going to happen until the GOP extremists are beaten badly in election after election.  After that happens, then the party leaders will finally have the courage to expel or sideline the worst of their party, and the GOP will either moderate or die.  It is what happened to the GOP after the New Deal, and the Dems after the McGovern/Mondale debacles.

[ Parent ]
No, see
many people agree with you that there are a lot of conservative/moderate Democrats who buck the party line too often, and/or should be primaried with more liberal/progressive alternatives, and/or aren't ideologically and/or strategically worth the support of the party or the netroots or the establishment or whatever.

That's not the problem.

The problem is that you seem to enjoy singling out Southern Dems and bashing them all the time.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Not quite
Calling me a traitor is beyond any bounds of decency.  It is never appropriate, regardless of how much you may disagree with what I have to say.

I have the right to my views about conservative rural Southerners, and it is perfectly fine if you don't like it.  I live in the South, and I call it like it is.

[ Parent ]
The reason the Democrats won't do that
is because they aren't by nature an actively malevolent, mean party that seeks to make people suffer personally because they voted for the other party. Am I saying Democrats never do mean or even evil things? No. But I am saying it's cognitively dissonant from what the party says it stands for. And I, for one, am glad about that.
[ Parent ]
Well that is exactly what LBJ did
as a Congressperson and Senator, as well as President.  His view was that you take care of your supporters first.

Jim DeMint advocates the cutting of all federal monies in the form of pork and subsidies.  I think it is only fair that those who elect people like Jim DeMint should also abide by the policies that Jim DeMint espouses.  And I'm certainly in favor of making that happen.

[ Parent ]
My liberal friends in South Carolina
would suffer, and I don't think that kind of vindictive policies would win many converts.
[ Parent ]
Just to add
What's good about a public option opt-out, if it happens, is that the bad guys would have to take - well - affirmative action (that was the term that came to my mind) to deny their constituents benefits. That way, the Democrats are set up to win on persuasion and example, and the Republican extremists are set up to lose because of their own actions to deny people what's coming to them.

I think if the Democrats started denying people things because they voted for the wrong party, they'd provoke a very angry response and hurt their future election chances.

[ Parent ]
I gotta agree with JSmith, if both ID-01 and ID-02 had similar Obama numbers
It was Obama who raised the baseline numbers, and if anything he helped carry Minnick over, rather than the opposite.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
That argument is just crap
Do you not agree that after having voted for a D once
it is easier to vote for a D again

This is a theory that is extremely plausible but has absolutely ZERO factual information to lead one to that conclusion.  It is nothing more than a hypothesis, a theory, and until someone shows me a study or some trend lines, Im going to call bullshit whenever someone tries to make this argument.

All of these people voting for Minnick sure didnt help Obama or LaRocco up-ballot, so why would one think that a group of constituents electing one Democrats means they will continue voting for them when they cant even bother to vote for the other Democrats on the same ballot?

The only conclusion we should be drawing from Minnick's election is that the American electorate, even when heavily leaning towards one party, will vote against said party if they put up a complete idiot who talks out of their ass.  

And also, the hypothesis of voting for one party leading one to vote for candidates of the same party at a higher likelihood in the future is an actual scientific thing.  I remember hearing a statistic from a head honcho in the DNC leading up to the 2006 election, once someone starts voting for a party, you need to get them to vote for said party 3 times consecutively and you pretty much have them for life.  

BUT, this was mainly for new voters and while it could be argued (or studied) if this applies to mid-life voters who are fed up and will be switching it up from now on.  But this is so heavily contrasted by the fact that the same people who voted for Minnick gave huge margins to McCain and Risch at the same time, so seeing how well this works in correlation to ticket-splitting also makes this whole argument extremely questionable.  Minnick was not elected because he was a Democrat, he was elected because he wasnt Sali.  Hell, I bet Minnick wouldnt be a Congressman if there had been a third party challenger in the mix.  Bachmann won due to people like my parents, lifelong Republicans who are sane and refused to vote for Bachmann.  Who did they vote for, Independence Party, I dont know his name and I doubt they remember either.  People thought Sali was ridiculous and Minnick was the only other person.  They got to the ballot, ooo McCain!  Risch!  Ugh, not Sali.  Im sure plenty went, oh Sali, oh Democrat.......   So there is certainly some proof of them at least going, oh Im voting for a Democrat.  The margin was too close for people to have not still been like, ugh Democrat Sali vs the opposite.

I just think it sounds like a logical theory, why else would an area elect a Democrat?  But I just question ever this happening in practice.  I'll certainly stand corrected if so.  What about this, Cao getting elected means if he can hold on, he could start getting the people of New Orleans used to voting for a Republican and will make it happen down ballot.  Nope.  They are all anomalies and I think that is that.  And I bet other examples really are just showing demographic changes in action or something,  

[ Parent ]
The concept is most commonly called "coattails"
and has existed basically forever in politics.

It is not open to question by anyone in politics.

If an election is tied, and there is one voter left, who woud you rather be casting the deciding vote...
- a person who voted Republican in all eight other races
- a person who voted for one Dem out of eight races
- a person who voted Dem in 7 of the 8 other races

Not knowing anything else about this voter, the order of the answer is obvious.

[ Parent ]
Yeah but the coattail affect isnt being practiced here
The coattail affect is when you have the person who voted for Dems at the top of the ticket and will do so by virtue of having done it at the top of the ticket do so for the bottom.  So we would all of course rather have someone who voted for 7/8 races Dem to decide the last one because chances are, those 7/8 will create coattails and help that 1/8 race left to be decided.

But I really dont see how this is applicable.  The people of ID-1 for the most part voted straight ticket R with the one exception, they wouldnt vote for a giant idiot like Sali.  There were zero coattails then so why should we assume this will create coattails later on?  If anything, you are misapplying the coattail effect completely and trying to turn into a practice that can span several election cycles and cause people to shift politically when I believe coattail effect is meant to be applied to a single election cycle.

If coattails being able to be applied to an area of a country and be shown to work not just across the ballot but across election cycles, then there are certainly examples of it happening.

[ Parent ]
Coattails work both ways
And you also are very much ignoring that coattails DID almost certainly occur in Idaho.

In other words, Obama did far better than Kerry.  Coattails don't mean you win other races, it just means one candidate leads to another candidate of the same party getting more votes.

"The people of ID-1 for the most part voted straight ticket R with the one exception"

You have to consider tour statement with I wrote above.  The correct way of looking at it would be: "Would Minnick have been able to beat Sali in 2004" with Kerry at the top of the ticket.  Obama got 36% of the vote, Kerry got 30%.  That may seem pathetic, but it is almost a dead cinch that those 6% who voted for Obama were more likely to vote for Minnick, and the Minnick voters were more likely to vote for Obama.

There was unquestionably a coattail effect in Idaho, and also unquestionably more people voted for TWO Democrats this time than they did in 2004.

[ Parent ]
Obama got 36% in Idaho because of his primary effort
not because Minnick beat Sali.  Obama improved from 30 to 36% in both ID-1 and ID-2, which clearly proves that Minnick's winning campaign was not a factor.
[ Parent ]
What?
So Obama's primary campaign didn't help Minnick?

It's simply illogical to think that Obama did not help Minnick, and that Minnick spending a bunch of money did not get Obama at least one more vote.

[ Parent ]
Obama helped Minnick
Minnick did not help Obama, which has been your thesis all over this page.  

The idea that electing DINOs to Congress will somehow result in helping other Democrats in the long run is unproven at best.

[ Parent ]
I like that idea too
make it obvious that it's the Republicans who are denying their constituents nice benefits.  Positive reinforcement there.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Thank you
n/t
[ Parent ]
They're not going to help.
Not when they refuse to endorse other Democrats, like Dan Boren did or they go far enough to endorse Republicans like Henry Cuellar did when he was a state legislator or when they poison the well being bashing Democratic proposals from the right and reinforce the existing attitudes.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I don't mind having Minnick
Idaho and Wyoming are places where the Democratic Party can make some serious inroads (these states have among the lowest number of religious people outside the Northeast).

The region that I consider worthless to elect DINOs is the rural South.  

[ Parent ]
Indeed.
   Many people did not notice that Minnick did NOT vote for the Stupak amendment.  He voted against the bill, but it is ridiculously unpopular in his district.  It seems that Minnick is a conservative, but not a reactionary.  He doesn't constantly bash Democrats like Griffith or collude with religious fundamentalists like Bright.  And he doesn't try to torpedo bills that are popular like Mike Ross.

John McCain lets lobbyists shape his economic policy
[ Parent ]
I hope a progressive emerges
for Davis' seat in AL.  VRA seats are where we can still keep our progressive numbers up from the rural south.
[ Parent ]
The one thing we need to be worried
about in these black primaries in the South, weeding out anti-choice and anti-gay candidates.  The majority of these Southern black majority districts are anti-choice and anti-gay and some of the black pastors are moving away from stressing civil rights and social justice issues and replacing that with anti-gay rhetoric.  For example, in Dayton (not the South), several black pastors implicitly backed the white conservative Republican, because the liberal black mayor Rhine McLin pushed through a anti-discrimination ordinance.  It was enough for McLin to lose narrowly.  

However, if the black civil rights leadership does its job, these types of candidates will be weeded out in the  endorsement process and hopefully will get no traction.

 

[ Parent ]
For many years, the leadership in the civil rights community was black pastors
such as Rev MLK Jr, Rev Ralph Aberrnathy, Andrew Young, and Jesse Jackson.

The thing we need to be worried about is making A-As feel like they're being taken for granted

[ Parent ]
That was how it was for many years
the up-and-coming black pastors today are much more evangelical than they used to be.  Homophobia is big among them, unlike it was for King, Jackson, Young, etc.

[ Parent ]
And these are Repub talking points
The thing we need to be worried about is making A-As feel like they're being taken for granted

straight from Faux News, especially after the Dems nominated and elected the first black President.

[ Parent ]
If you ignore the rural A-A, you'll be proving Fox news right
I don't listen much to cable news channels to begin with.

Electing a black President didn't end racism, nor did it improve the lot of the A-A voter. Only appropriate policies make that change.

[ Parent ]
No but it did thoroughly disprove
the bullshit GOP talking point that Dems take blacks for granted.
[ Parent ]
Which suggests that you believe in symbolism over policy.
a.k.a. now that Obama is President, it seems that you believe that we can now take A-As for granted.
[ Parent ]
Again this is a GOP talking point
unless you are auditioning for job with the RNC.  
It is clear that Democratic policies help blacks far better than GOP policies.
[ Parent ]
While what you say is marginally true of D policies,
Your policies would hurt rural A-As - as you've said, you favor urban over rural. Compensating with pork doesn't cut it.

Furthermore, it's irritating that you insinuate that views other than your own are automatically GOP. It suggests that you're unwilling to discuss on the merits.

[ Parent ]
We need to worry about taking any element of the base for granted.
Unfortunately, it keeps happening when you elect a punch of corporate whores and conservatives whose attitude is "Where are you going to go?"  That's one of the reasons why I'm for ridding ourselves of those types of "Democrats."

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Your response is reasonable
While I support many candidates who are "blue dogs,"

your response is much better than just saying "we've elected an A-A pres, so we can now take A-As for granted".

[ Parent ]
For now...
The Mormon religion will (I guess) continue to grow out west, and while it has seemed to move South from Utah into NV/AZ I'm sure eventually WY and ID will see their share of Mormon migration.  
[ Parent ]
Non-Mormons are moving into Utah in huge numbers
and are drowning out the Mormon births.  And while the younger Mormons are conservative, there is some questioning going on.  

And of non-Mormons in the West, there is a very large non-religious population.

[ Parent ]
Perhaps
My point being there is potential for ID and WY to get more religious in the future, kind of like Utah.  I think that we will be able to tell about the conservatism of Mormons outside of Utah based on Arizona in coming years.  If the D's can grab the governor's mansion and beat McCain we'll know your point has been proven to perfection.
[ Parent ]
The Dems will get the Gov mansion in AZ
and they will not beat McCain, he is still considered a maverick.  However, if McCain goes down in a primary to say Hayworth, the Dems can beat Hayworth with a decent candidate.  The Dems picked up three Congressional seats in Arizona because the GOP nominated hard right crazies.
[ Parent ]
I believe Minnick can be re-elected in 2010
After all, Richard Stallings survived for 3 terms in ID-02, which believe it or not, is far more wingnut that ID-01.

(While his re-elections were difficult, he only lost when running for the Senate in '92.)

[ Parent ]
I think
Obama did slightly better in ID-02 than he did in ID-01 FWIW
[ Parent ]
Appreciate the info. ID-01 at least used to be more D
with the Lewiston (U ID) influence, I think.
[ Parent ]
If Bill Sali is the nominee
Minnick will be reelected.  If not, I'd call Minnick the underdog.  Same with Kratovil in MD-1, his chances of being reelected depend on Andy Harris being the nominee.
[ Parent ]
How did Minnick vote on the Stupak Amendment?
that'll give you your answer.  
[ Parent ]
He voted no if I'm right
I was reading the twitter feeds on huffpost when they were voting on the bill and one GOP rep tweeted "I'm shocked that Minnick (ID) voted against banning federal funds for abortion." Which is odd, since Minnick is representing a district where pro-lifers probably outnumber pro-choicers 10-1.
[ Parent ]
Not at all true
Which is odd, since Minnick is representing a district where pro-lifers probably outnumber pro-choicers 10-1.

Idaho and Wyoming are libertarian states, and lean pro-choice. ID-2 has a strong Mormon population, which might lean it towards the pro-life side, but ID-1 doesn't have that many Mormons, and has lots of non-religious "leave me alone" anti-gov't Republicans.

Minnick represented his district with his vote.

[ Parent ]
One more thing: issues
For some reason, I find myself far more interested in the issues come this session of Congress.  I don't know why.

Not to the point of telling people to every conservative Democrat (in fact, I've spoken in defense of Bright, Griffin, Minnick, and others), and I do agree with them on some issues.  But on the other hand, I gotta say that some things would really really benefit constituencies that oppose them on really stupid ideological grounds.  Such as South Carolina opposing health care funding or stimulus money.

To me, these things are not about "liberal" versus "conservative", but "what's the obviously better idea", party affiliations and ideological labels be damned.

I was just reading the Wikipedia article on Bob Conley, and suddenly realizing that I was far less amused at the prospect of having him as a Democratic Senator than I was back around election time in 2008.

And come to think of it, Lindsey Graham is causing the Republicans more headaches than him losing to Bob Conley (plus Bob Conley being in the Senate) would.

I've also wondered whether it would be useful for the Democratic Party to run ads in deep-red areas against Republican opposition to things like healthcare reform.  For example, run ads in Oklahoma or South Carolina saying how much more the average household would pay for healthcare, or something like that, if their Republican representatives/senators got their way with the legislation.  Just to weaken support for them in the long term.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

Just the one wor dof caution though...
Excitment might not always be what you want.  For instance, if today one of the D's voted no on healthcare debate, you might want Conley.  The vote came down on the party line.

So if today Landrieu voted no but Conley was there, it at least gives you one more D to try and cajole.  Demint will not be "cajole-able" since he is an R.

Kind of like making a deal with the devil sometimes isn't it...

[ Parent ]
Typically, I'd agree with you
but this was a choice between Bob Conley and Lindsey Graham.  Between the two of them, Conley seems like more of an ideological conservative, actually.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
If you think it easier to sway Graham...
with an R next to his name than Conley with a D, then fine.  I just saw, as we all did, a straight party line vote where the Southern D's were needed, so I'd prefer to have a better shot at someone within our own party for the next big item.
[ Parent ]
I actually think it would be easier
to sway Graham.  Conley is really a nut, and he not a Democrat but a Ron Paul style conspiracy nut.
[ Parent ]
There would be a period of time before he warmed up to the D next to his name
and during that time, he might very well switch to the other party.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
He would never warm up to the D
and he probably wouldn't feel that comfortable as a Repub either.  

Bob Conley is someone whose views are really outside the mainstream of either party.  He is very much like a Ron Paul, whom the GOP could never control when they were in the majority, as he voted against their legislation repeatedly, and don't need to control as they are in the minority because he votes against the Dems repeatedly.

Bob Conley is truly Mr. No.

[ Parent ]
Finally!
For the past few weeks Internet Explorer has been telling me that "www.swingstateproject.com does not exist," so you can imagine my relief upon successful loading of the site today. Good to be back.
Really strange
Next time that happens, I recommend:

1) Doing a "hard refresh" - instructions here.

2) Trying a new browser. (Definitely ditch IE... Firefox, Chrome or Safari are all better bets, and are available on both Mac and PC.)

3) Emailing one of the staff.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the tips
I've switched browsers, and I'll be sure to take your advice if I have any future problems. Yeah, it was very strange...
[ Parent ]
I'm starting a really interesting project right now
and I figured some people here might be interested.  I'm trying to break down the 2008 and 2004 Presidential votes (in Michigan) by ancestry.  I'm using the census to first break it down by municipality, then assigning each municipality to an ancestry, again using the census.  I then calculate the combined results from each ancestry group.  In theory, the results should be relatively accurate, as long as the samples are large enough, although of course there are a lot of variables, so it isn't extremely scientific.  I was motivated by a story in the digest a few weeks ago which did something similar, except only calculating for "Dutch" and "Scandinavian." I haven't gotten very far, but the most intriguing thing that I have discovered is that contrary to the CW, The "Swedish" ancestry group is actually, in Michigan at least, one of the most conservative groups of all, having gone 53-45 for McCain, and 55-44 for Bush.  The sample is rather small for that group though.  Finns were a bit more liberal, but still closer than I would have expected- 53-45 for Obama, and 50-49 for Bush.  I'll probably do a diary when I'm completely finished.

"[Rush Limbaugh] is a sorry excuse for a human being and a has-been hypocrite loser who was more lucid when he was a drug addict." Congressman Alan Grayson (D-FL)
NY Daily News Report on Rudy already (slightly) wrong
It said he'd announce for Senate in 48 hours: it's been over 72 and nothing yet.  Probably doesn't invalidate the whole report but worth mentioning.  

Village Voice claims aides say he won't run
[ Parent ]
I want to make the point that when Rudy ran for president
Everyone thought he'd be this awesome candidate that would win the nomination but he ended up falling to pieces. The same thing could happen to him against sharp and extremely intelligent Kirsten Gillibrand. That being said, I say GO AWAY RUDY.
[ Parent ]
MI-GOV: Republican Primary/Dem Primary
GOP
21% Hoekstra
15% Cox
13% Bouchard
DEM
20% Cherry
6% Dillon
6% Perles
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!! KS-03!!!!!
Moore (D) is supposed to announce a retirement today. His is the first straight up retirement by either party this year. Obama won his district with 51% of the vote. Moore was getting real reliable for us on near anything.

This SUCKS!!! I blame the teabaggers for that death threat they sent to his office earlier this year.

It stinks
but it's still early.  There should be quite a few more retirements to come on both sides.  I still don't see Young running again in FL-10.  
[ Parent ]
CO-Gov: Tancredo passes on run, endorses McInnis
Also suck
There goes Ritter . . .
Maybe Hickenlooper will jump into the Dem primary.
[ Parent ]
IA-04: Dems have a candidate against Latham
I met him at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner on Saturday.

It's not a competitive district in 2010, but we can't afford to leave Latham unchallenged, because in 2012 he may be running against Boswell or a new Democrat in a redrawn IA-03.

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 204 comments

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