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SSP Daily Digest: 11/17

by: Crisitunity

Tue Nov 17, 2009 at 4:26 PM EST


AR-Sen: PPP's Tom Jensen has some interesting crosstabs from their AR-02 poll, which shed some light on Blanche Lincoln's unique set of problems. Lincoln generates only lukewarm enthusiasm from her base: Barack Obama gets a 78% approval among Dems in the district, Rep. Vic Snyder is at 75%, and Mark Pryor is at 61%, but Lincoln is at only 43%, with 30% of Dems thinking she's too conservative (although that may be coming to a head right now with her obstructionist role in the health care debate, which may not be much of an issue one year from now). Moving to the left, though, will cause her to lose votes with independents, though, among whom 49% think she's too liberal.

CT-Sen, CT-05: Local GOP party poohbahs are sounding eager to push state Sen. Sam Caligiuri out of the Senate race, where he's rather, uh, underutilized, and into the 5th, for a race against Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy; Caligiuri says he'll consider it. Problem is, Justin Bernier is already running there, and has had some fundraising success and gotten NRCC "Young Gun" status; as you might expect, Bernier is crying foul.

FL-Sen: Charlie Crist has been trying to hide from his previous stimulus support, but Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson has the goods on him, dragging out an old interview from spring in which Crist says "absolutely" he would have voted for the stimulus had he been in the Senate at the time. Here's one bit of good news for Crist, though; Marco Rubio's once-perfect A rating from the National Rifle Association is about to drop, thanks to Rubio's compromise (from back when he was House speaker) on the take-your-gun-to-work law that recently became law.

IL-Sen: Former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman has an internal poll of his own now, and while it doesn't give numbers for the Dem primary matchup between Hoffman and frontrunner Alexi Giannoulias, it does point to some vulnerabilities for Giannoulias. The poll claims that without message-testing, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk leads Giannoulias 40-37 and leads Hoffman 40-30, but once positives and negatives are read, Kirk beats Giannoulias 47-30 and Hoffman beats Kirk 42-36. The negatives involve the Giannoulias family bank, which apparently has been connected to Tony Rezko. Meanwhile, Kirk took an embarrassing hit from the conservative Chicago Tribune editorial board, whose response to Kirk's flip-flopping and fearmongering on trying terrorists in New York boiled down to "Give us a break." Wondering why Kirk is so transparently turning into a right-winger? Kirk's looking increasingly nervous about erstwhile opponent Patrick Hughes, who is currently seeking out a Jim DeMint endorsement.

KY-Sen, NH-Sen: The NRSC is claiming it's not getting involved in primary fights with fundraising, but you can't make party leadership's intentions any clearer than when Mitch McConnell hosts a fundraiser in New York on Dec. 7 for Trey Grayson and Kelly Ayotte. With both candidates facing mounting anti-establishment challenges, it seems like the bad publicity back home generated by these appearances -- more grist for the movement conservative mill -- might outweigh the financial benefit.

NJ-Sen: Now that recently unemployed TV pundit Lou Dobbs has some time on his hands, he told Bill O'Reilly he's considering a run for the Senate in New Jersey. There isn't a seat available until 2012 (when Dobbs will be 67) -- he'd be going up against Bob Menendez that year. Dobbs vs. Menendez? Hmmm, you can't get any more weighed down with symbolism than that.

SC-Sen: The county GOP in Berkeley County (in the Charleston suburbs) was prepared to have its own censure vote against Lindsey Graham, but they called off the vote after Graham's chief of staff promised to meet with them first.

CA-Gov (pdf): Lots of people have taken notice that the Republican field in the governor's race isn't a diverse bunch: three sorta-moderates from Silicon Valley. San Jose State University took a poll of those who would seemingly know the candidates the best: Republican likely voters in "Silicon Valley" (Santa Clara and San Mateo Counties, plus small parts of Alameda and Santa Cruz Counties). Perhaps thanks to Tom Campbell's tenure in the House representing much of this area, he has a wide lead, at 39%, compared with 11 for Meg Whitman and 7 for Steve Poizner.

MI-Gov, MI-08: In case there was any doubt that Rep. Mike Rogers (the Michigan one) was going to run for re-election to his House seat and not for governor, we found a statement from way back in February to that effect. (H/t to Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood, a blog devoted to all things MI-08.)

MN-Gov: Rasmussen looks at the still-coalescing primary fields in the Minnesota governor's races, and seems to be finding very name-recognition-driven results right now. On the Democratic side, most of the votes are going to former Senator Mark Dayton and Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak; both poll at 30, trailed by state House speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 8 and former state legislator Matt Entenza at 6. On the Republican side, ex-Sen. Norm Coleman dominates, with 50%; however, he's not in the race, at least not yet, and is probably the only name that people know. Among the rest of the rabble, former House minority leader Marty Seifert is doing the best, at 11, with 5 for Laura Brod and 1 for Tom Emmer.

OR-Gov: Most people have already mentally ruled out Rep. Peter DeFazio from the governor's race, but he just said that he's still somewhat interested, and that he won't be making up his mind on it until... next March? He doesn't seem too concerned about the delay, as Oregon law would let him transfer over his federal dollars and he alludes to private polling showing him in a dead heat with John Kitzhaber. While I still doubt he'll follow through, that raises the question of who might fill a vacancy in OR-04; it's looking less and less like it would be Springfield's Republican mayor Sid Leiken, who was just fined $2,250 by the state for the phantom poll that may or may not have been conducted by Leiken's mom.

TX-Gov: Little-known fact: Kay Bailey Hutchison, despite the seeming overall malaise in her campaign, has a big edge in endorsements from Texas House Republicans. She has the endorsements of 10 of 20 (including Kay Granger, Kenny Marchant, and Michael Burgess), perhaps indicative of Rick Perry's increasingly strident anti-Washington rhetoric. (Not that that will help much when the actual electorate is in an increasingly anti-establishment mood.) A couple other Dems are looking at the race: hair care magnate Farouk Shami (who's willing to bring his own money to the race) is officially launching his campaign on Thursday, while El Paso-based outgoing state Sen. Eliot Shapleigh is publicly weighing a run.

FL-19: West Palm Beach mayor Lois Frankel, who would have been maybe the highest-profile possible primary challenger to state Sen. Ted Deutch in the upcoming special election in the 19th, has decided not to run. Deutch has been endorsed by outgoing Robert Wexler and has an increasingly clear path to the nomination. Meanwhile, the only GOPer looking interested in running in the dark-blue district is Ed Lynch, who lost to Wexler last year.

IL-06: Here's a little more information about Benjamin Lowe, who's the only Dem running in the 6th against Peter Roskam. While he's something of a political unknown, it turns out he's well-connected in the religious left community as well as the green jobs movement. He's a graduate of evangelical Wheaton College (which is in the district) and has been active in the last few years in organizing students at other evangelical colleges on issues of environmental stewardship.

NY-13: I don't know if anything can top last year's NY-13 race for political trainwrecks, but the Staten Island GOP may have gotten switched onto that same track again. Michael Allegretti, a 31-year old who caught attention for raising $200K for the race already, is a lawyer who also owns a share of the family business, Bayside Fuel and Oil -- which employed Gambino family capo Joe "Joe Butch" Corrao for several decades. Over $40K of Allegretti's contributions came from family members working for Bayside. To add to the made-for-TV drama: Allegretti's potential Republican primary opponent, Michael Grimm, was on the FBI squad charged with investigating said crime family.

NY-19: Republican Greg Ball -- who puts the "Ass" in Assemblyman -- is out with an internal poll putting him within single digits of Rep. John Hall. Hall leads the Hall/Ball matchup, 48-43 -- although for some reason the poll was taken only in the portion of the district that's east of the Hudson River. Hall still has strong favorables, at 57/25, while Ball is at 40/28.

NY-23: Recounting in NY-23 is still on track to see Rep. Bill Owens remain in the House; Doug Hoffman is down 2,951 votes with 6,123 left, so about the best he can hope for is to lose by about 2,000. The Hoffman saga just got weirder when yesterday Hoffman, goaded along by his patron Glenn Beck, unconceded on national TV -- yet today, his spokesperson un-un-conceded, not that any of that is legally binding, of course.

NRCC: If the Republicans are going to make a serious dent in the Democratic edge in the House next year, they're going to have to refill the NRCC's coffers, which are still lagging the DCCC. Party leadership smacked down members in a closed-door session, trying to get them to pony up their $15K dues. The Hill also has an interesting profile of CA-22's Kevin McCarthy, an up-and-comer who's the NRCC recruitment chair now and likely to head the NRCC at some point in the near future. Turns out that McCarthy is quite the student of Rahm Emanuel.

Mayors: SurveyUSA polls the runoff in the Atlanta mayor's race, and they have quite the reversal of fortune for Mary Norwood, who led all polls before November and finished first in the election. State Sen. Kasim Reed, who finished 2nd, now leads Norwood, 49-46. Reed leads 69-25 among African-American voters, indicating that he picked up almost all of 3rd-place finisher Lisa Borders' support.

Special elections: Two legislative specials are on tap tonight. The big one is California's AD-72, a Republican-leaning seat in the OC left vacant by the resignation of Mike Duvall (who resigned in disgrace after bragging about his affair with a lobbyist). It seems to be mostly a contest between two GOPers, Orange County Supervisor Chris Norby and activist Linda Ackerman (who's been making much of Norby's four divorces). Since this is California, assuming one of the Republicans doesn't finish over 50%, it'll move on to another round where the top Republican faces off against Dem John MacMurray. Also, in Mississippi, there's a contest in Biloxi-based HD-117, to replace Republican state Rep. Michael Janus; candidates aren't identified by party on the special election ballot, but the contestants are Patrick Collins (who ran against Janus several times) and Scott DeLano.

Redistricting: You might want to check out the website called "Redistricting the Nation," presented by GIS software company Avencia but full of fun widgets. Most interestingly, you can evaluate the compactness of any congressional district by four different criteria, and see the worst offenders in each category.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 11/17
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My money's on Chris Norby
in CA AD-71, given the success of Norby Chabert in a Louisiana Senate special election earlier this year.  2009 is the year of the Norby.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

It is extremely pathetic
that the Democrats couldn't come up with a top-flight candidate in IL-6, a district that Obama won by 13%.  Same with IL-13.

Yes I know that this district is traditionally very Republican (I lived nearby).  But it has changed rapidly.


My guess:
Any top tier guys interested in that race want to hold off until 2012, when the Obama campaign apparatus will be going full-tilt again.

[ Parent ]
And after redistricting has taken its effect
but if I were an aspiring candidate, I'd run this year and get some name recognition, which could be useful in a primary and in the general.

[ Parent ]
Yep
It's more about redistricting than anything else.  Why make a longshot run in 2010 when you can run in a far more favorable district in 2012.  IL-13 should be one of those districts that will be redrawn into a somewhat safe Dem seat.  Biggert will probably just retire by then.

[ Parent ]
then again
the opposition to Roskam wasn't too fierce in 2008.

And i've heard complaints about Lowe, from a views standpoint, but it'd take some funky line drawing to create a reliable Democratic district in DuPage


[ Parent ]
He probably survives redistricting
Most possible maps I've seen just give pack the repubs in Roskam's district to soften up neighboring districts for Dem pickups.  Roskam would probably survive redistricting.

[ Parent ]
I don't see much of a point
to leaving Roskam's district. It's limited in expanding westward because Bill Foster is right next door in the 14th district, and it's kinda awkward to concede a very light pink district (DuPage County was actually the only county in Illinois where Obama won all the townships!) when you can just flop Cook County onto it. The adjacent districts, even the VRA ones, have plenty of Dems to spare.

[ Parent ]
I certainly hope they do this
make IL-6 or IL-13 Democratic but not both.

Hell, is it possible to draw Lipinski into a Democratic IL-6/13 so that we can use his territory for a progressive who doesnt suckle off his dad's accomplishments?


[ Parent ]
Hope so
His district should definately be watered down a good bit.  And this is one case where the incumbent would be happy with his district being less liberal.  We can't oust the guy in a primary so may as well let him represent a district that supports his voting habits.

[ Parent ]
The argument (and it was a good one)
against this was that would be a district that Lipinski couldn't win, if it was extended to DuPage Co.  The reasoning is that DuPage County is fiscally conservative and socially liberal, while Lipinski is the opposite, and he would have a great deal of difficulty winning swing votes in DuPage against any Repub, but especially Biggert.

[ Parent ]
Bad idea
Just not worth the risk.  Better to just give him a watered down district than to hope he falls in a primary.  I've all but given up on trying to oust that guy.

[ Parent ]
The other idea of tossing him out
was to make a Hispanic majority district with Lipinski in it.

But i agree with you, put him in a marginal district, and we win either way, either Lipinski takes out a worse Repub, or Lipinski goes.


[ Parent ]
Dobbs vs. Menendez
Oh, that would be glorious.

Tancredo/Dobbs Prez 2012
That would be even better either as a repub ticket or a 3rd party ticket to divide the GOP.

[ Parent ]
Reed will beat Norwood I think
and thank God.  I don't want a conservative Republican er "independent" as mayor of Atlanta.

It sucks that it is coming down to racial lines, though.  If a white candidate similar to Karla Drenner were to run, then my view would be different.


Norwood
I thought I kept reading Norwood was a conservative Democrat?

29/D/Male/NY-01

[ Parent ]
AD72
A typo, not AD-71:

http://www.ocvote.com/live/72n...

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.


To those worried about our chances of taking HI-Gov:
Only one Republican has filed to run for Lieutenant Governor, a little-known lawyer who has raised a grand total of $550.  In Hawaii, as in some other states, Lt. Governors are not picked by gubernatorial candidates like vice presidents, instead they run separately and have their own primary.  It's a position always recognized as a springboard to higher office (the Republican candidate for governor is the incumbent Lt. Gov.), yet no Republican of note has made any motions for it.

By comparison, the Democrats have a state senator, a city councilman, a state representative, and possibly the chair of the Hawaii Democratic Party.  They've raised almost a combined half million dollars together.

Republicans know they aren't going to be able to beat Neil Abercrombie.  It's not even going to be close.


David Hoffman needs to go away
and stop trying to screw up this race for Giannoulias. The last thing we need is a contested primary and a Senator Mark Kirk.  

What is it with Hoffmans?
They all want to screw over the two major parties.

[ Parent ]
Let Hoffman and Jackson run
This is a democracy after all, something some Illinois Dems ignore and besides Kirk might get taken down on his right flank by that nutjob Hughes.  The right wingers already have a wealthy independent in the race by the name of Wallace who is seething at Kirk.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


Jackson can run but I want Hoffman out!
Hoffman is only going to result in weakening Gianoulias, for the general seriously,(Hoffman is already running push polls) You want Mark Kirk to become a senator??????

[ Parent ]
But what if Hoffman's right?
It's certainly plausible that Mark Kirk can win this thing, so why nominate the Democratic candidate who potentially has the most baggage? I'm not saying Hoffman's aces (he's probably the most boring of the 3 main contenders), but Giannoulias has never struck me as the perfect candidate to squash Kirk; he can fundraise and he can probably shore up the Dem vote, but he ain't Obama. I'm weary of Jackson, but no matter what, the Democratic nominee should have a floor of about 47% here. Kirk will probably need around a 20% margin among Independents to win this one, and that's probably more plausible that it initially sounds.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Yeah I agree
        I think if anyone is gonna be damaged by a primary, it's gonna probably be Kirk. Besides which the primary in Illinois is ridiculously early. There is plenty of time to kiss and make up. And I also agree that Giannoulias has some baggage that could potentially be used against him. His family's bank and the fiasco with the Bright Start College fund. It might not be the worst thing in the world if Hoffman ends up as the nominee. Although I think out of the 3 Jackson would be the weakest contender in a general election.  

[ Parent ]
show me the Illinois activist or pol
who buys Hoffman's argument about Giannoulias.

Hoffman started with a few endorsements from other North Shore Jews. I'm not aware of him getting a single endorsement since he began his campaign.

I've yet to encounter an activist who agrees with Hoffman's take on Kirk vs. Giannoulias. There's a little nervousness about Kirk from the Dems in IL-10, but I have yet to hear one advance the Hoffman's claim as their own.

I like Hoffman OK, which is about the same as I like Giannoulias. But Hoffman is not running a campaign working toward the goal of getting the nomination at this point.

He's beating-a-dead-horse with an argument nobody is buying.


[ Parent ]
Why can Jaskson run, but Hoffman not?
My point is not about wanting Kirk either, my point is why should Alexi get a free ride?  What makes you think Jackson can't beat Alexi or at least rough him up, unless you just don't want to upset African American voters as if they all would go for Jackson to begin with which isn't true.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


[ Parent ]
Alexi shouldn't get a free ride
But Hoffman is being passive-aggressive in his attacks against Giannoulias.

Hoffman doesn't claim that Giannoulias has done anything wrong or unethical. He merely claims that by repeating Giannoulias and corruption over and over while using innuendo and non-causal linkages the GOP will succeed in making Giannoulias look dirty.

It seems partly an unfair attack by Hoffman. Giannoulias can't disprove the kind of allegation Hoffman is making.

And Hoffman seems like a political novice. Of course, the GOP is going to attack Giannoulias. They're Republicans. It's what they do.


[ Parent ]
Ben Lowe
is connected with the Chinese Church WCAC. It was odd how a lot of my friends knew about him before I did. Haha.

NY-19 and CT-05
Wow, how do they not poll half of the district, especially when it seems to be the swingier area. I guess the dollar toll on the Bear Mountain Bridge was too much for the Ballster. Considering this poll covers the area that overlaps Ball's Assembly seat and he is still down, then the numbers must not look too great when Orange and Rockland Counties are added into the mix.

As for Mr. Caligiuri, I'd love to see him face off with Murphy as he actually holds the senate seat that Murphy gave up in 2006. He also has the honor of being my state senator, and I'm proud to say he's a true self-important, grandstanding ass in the finest Joe Lieberman mold from the most corrupt city in the state (Waterbury, and that's saying something in this state). He also has some baggage, as he worked under former Governor John Rowland before he went to prison and was Alderman under and successor to Waterbury mayor Phil Giordano, who the feds caught after he paid a mother to have sex with her little girls in the mayor's office.

Murphy is a true rising star in the party, and could use a nice reelection fight to keep him on his toes in case he wants to run for the Senate in the future.  

25, Male, CT-01 (home), Perth-Wellington riding (sometimes)


Anyone have any election results?
for the specials tonight or preferibly a website?

upthread there is a link for CA AD-72
   for the results starting at 8PM Pacific Time. (oc vote)

  With all due respect to Mr. Testicle in the NY legislature, I believe that it was Mike "Eyepatch Undies" DuVall, the former member from AD-72, who put the Ass into Assemblymember!  

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28


[ Parent ]
Delano wins in MS HD-117
http://www.wlox.com/Global/sto...

Republican hold.  Not sure whether Collins was a Republican or a Democrat.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11


[ Parent ]
they're non-partisan elections
still if Collins would have indeed been a Democrat, a 53-47 loss in Biloxi is not bad at all.  

[ Parent ]
Yes
they don't put the parties on the ballot in special elections in MS, but Delano is clearly a Republican from his Facebook page, just like Roger Wicker was clearly a Republican.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Musical Chairs in NJ? Maybe Dobbs could get an earlier chance at a Senate seat?
OK, so here's the speculation out of NJ-
-Corzine will resign before January
-Dick Codey will become Acting Governor
-Frank Lautenberg will resign from Senate
-Codey will appoint Corzine
http://washingtontimes.com/new...

That sounds like fairytale stuff
Do Dems really want to add another expensive seat to defend next year? And with the damaged Corzine? Not happening.

[ Parent ]
I stopped listening to what GOPVOTER says
when he made that rude and uncalled for comment comparing Martha Coakley to Sarah Palin. I work very hard for the Coakley campaign and dont need to hear that. I think I see Stillow on here.

[ Parent ]
No way
Stillow wouldn't hold back.

[ Parent ]
Two things
1. Can you link to the post?  GOPVoter has been pretty respectful here as a whole.

2. What is Stillow?


[ Parent ]
Conservative poster at Pollster.com


[ Parent ]
I like GOPvoter
even though I may not like his politics. Unless it was in the recent closed thread - or some name was spelled wrong,

my search reveals no comment shows up from GOPvoter comparing Palin to Coakley in any way.


[ Parent ]
Coakley
Just because you work on her campaign doesn't mean that's she's intelligent.  I'm a true blue democrat and all but honestly Coakley comes across as ill informed.  I've seen two interviews with her.  One on hardball where she missed some facts and then another random one.  She was not that inspiring.  Maybe she has done good as AG and maybe her staffers will better inform her in congress.  But as far as the most Knowledgeable or charismatic candidate for senate, I'd say she has some work to do.  That said I dont' have any idea about the others because I dont' live in MA.  

[ Parent ]
Really
Martha took on DOMA, Wall Street, and health insurance companies. I could go on but I'm, not in the mood to write an essay on this site. Do some research on her and you'll be impressed rather than basing your opinion on two interviews.

[ Parent ]
AG vs. Senator
I'm not saying she has been a bad AG.  She's been really good.  That doesn't mean she'll be a good senator.  Sure she'll be a reliable democraic vote but will she be a uniter like Ted Kenedy?  Will she be able to provide compromise to get things done in the senate?  Or will she just be another reliably liberal vote in the senate?  From what I have seen and read, she's a great liberal.  That doesn't mean she'd be better in the senate.  She may be better at being a governor than a senator.  That's my opinion and since I'm not voting it doesn't really matter.  All I'm saying is that you shouldn't get bent out of shape because a republican doesn't like your candidate.  She did give two really sub par interviews.  If she can't handle soft balls from Hard Ball host Chris Matheews that strikes me a bad sign

[ Parent ]
You cant find the comment because the thread was closed, it was the open thread on the healthcare weekend


[ Parent ]
I haven't seen such a comment. Can you provide the link?


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
It was on the open thread that DavidNYC closed on the healthcare vote weekend


[ Parent ]
Oh.


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
People in politics have passions
so ocassional offenses - perceived or real - should be let go. Otherwise, coalitions are not possible.

[ Parent ]
I'm not the one who wrote the article
Rude and uncalled for? How? Tell me, does one of these comments sound intelligent? Both sound pretty asinine to me.
Q: What foreign policy experience do you have?
Palin Answer: Alaska is located close to Russia-translation "I can see Russia from my house!"

Coakley answer: My sister lives abroad, so I experience a lot of foreign countries.
Neither are good answers to that question! And if you think one is, you are a blind Palin supporter or blind Coakley supporter.

Now look, I don't love Palin, but I still like her. As a supporter of her as McCain's VP Pick, I was still able to recognize that that was a HORRIBLE answer! It doesn't seem as though you can do the same.  


[ Parent ]
Sounds like there are varying interpretations
ref http://www.bluemassgroup.com/d...

But varying interpretations make for legitimate political differences.


[ Parent ]
Follow up from the Blue Mass blog
And, as it turns out, the Herald's "interpretation" is a total hatchet job.  Coakley did mention her sister who lives overseas -- but that was in response to Janet Wu's overly long, multipart question.


[ Parent ]
This comment was taken completely out of context by Scott Brown
and if GOPVOTER watched the entire statement he'd see that this was only a single part of it compared to Sarah Palin only talking about seeing Russia from Alaska as her foreign policy experience. Thus GOPVOTER called Coakley horrible all because of this one comment she made. Someone who has taken on the defensive marriage act, gone after healthcare companies for denying coverage, and taken on people on wall street for taking investors money should not be compared to an opportunist in Alaska who couldn't even serve out a full term as governor.

[ Parent ]
Would you serve out your full term?
If your kids were being attacked constantly? You privacy was being invaded? You families financial stability was put on the line by ethics violations?

Oh, and I'd like to say thank you. Thanks for being an ass an detracting from the article I posted. I really wanted to get some feedback on what people on the other side of the spectrum thought about it. There are certain issues which deserve to be discussed after awhile and argued upon, but one comment I made over a week ago on my personal opinion of the comment? Get over it dude. Don't take it so personally.  


[ Parent ]
Palin resigned to make money not because of her family


[ Parent ]
Palin
You have no idea why she resigned.  I'm sure it was multi fascitted.

1. money
2. wasn't worth the legal fees she was personally undertaking
3. politics
4. family
5. personal happiness.
etc.

I don't dislike Sarah for resigning.  I dislike Sarah because of her persoanl attacks and lies.  Alaska is probably better off without her.  So whehter she did it for the right reasons she did the right thing.


[ Parent ]
Dude
1. take a chill pill
2. Quit with the talking points
3. politicians are by nature, oportunists.
4. Leaving your job isn't necisarily damnable E.G. Obama didn't even serve one full senate term so he "abandoned" Ilinois to become
5.  Tell me what will make her anything more than a reliable democratic vote?   Practicallly anyone in MA will be a reliable dem vote.

[ Parent ]
And putting things in a "different" context is a - standard - political tactic
While I agree the comment was taken out of context, it is a standard tactic in American politics. By his/her name, GOPvoter has at least implied political leanings different from most of us here. I would be surprised if he looks as kindly on D candidates as most of us do.

(ps to others, Scott Brown is an R candidate in this race.)


[ Parent ]
Right
I think I've made it pretty obvious as to which side I play for. Now, there are some Democrats I will (and plan to) vote for. The best example is LA AG Buddy Caldwell. He's been a great AG and I have enormous respect for him, and plan to vote for him if he runs for re-election in 2011.  

[ Parent ]
Heres the vid
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Sorry, only video i could find. It did not say the name of the news station, so just ignore the captions!

[ Parent ]
Scott Brown's attack video that does not include the entire statement, find a video of Martha's whole answer and then we will talk


[ Parent ]
OK
Your in Massachusetts? Can you tell me the name of the news station? I'd be happy to watch the full video and then I will see if it changes my opinion of it. That was all I could find on YouTube, as I mentioned above. But please, I'd like to focus on Corzine & Lautenberg potentially resigning and Corzine being appointed. If you want to talk about this further with me, start a new discussion.  

[ Parent ]
Heres my take on the article you presented above since your so interested
Never going to happen Dems in NJ are not crazy enough to risk Corzine loosing the seat to a republican next year. Corzine won't be able to win another statewide election and Lautenberg will stay in his seat till 2014. There's your answer, HAPPY!

[ Parent ]
Thank you
Thats all I wanted it. I posted it here to get others opinions. Personally, I think they'd be STUPID to risk it on Corzine. The plan could work, but it would have to involve Corzine staying Governor and appointing Booker or Codey, if he wanted it.  

[ Parent ]
I don't see the logic either.
To prevent Christie from appointing a Republican if Lautenberg happens to get sick or, God forbid, pass away before Christie's term is up? Too much uncertainty for them to risk the seat next year. If it did happen, I wonder who we'd run? Dobbs or Kean, Jr?  

[ Parent ]
I don't think Dobbs would even hold Repubs
I think there are a lot of socially moderate to liberal Republicans in New Jersey who don't care for Lou Dobbs' politics.

Kean Jr would be a better bet.  


[ Parent ]
Yeah
But he is apparently interested in running and would have name rec (so would Kean Jr but, Dobbs has $$$$$) Remember, Christie was able to win as a social conservative. I think it would be a tough primary if they both ran. The other potential, but much less likely: Kim Guadagno. She's still be kinda new to the job of Lt. Gov and SoS, so it'd be a little early if the SE happened.

[ Parent ]
Christie was a "mainstream" social conservative
not a loud mouth anti-immigration talk show host.  As far as I know, New Jersey is not a hotbed of anti-immigration sentiment.  Dobbs is DOA in New Jersey.  He might get teabagger support (heck he is basically aligned with them on all the issues, including the economic populist ones), but he wouldn't get the support of business conservatives.

Secondly Christie won a Governor's race, not a federal race.  Many Dems have won races for Governor in states where they would have no prayer in a federal race, Oklahoma, Wyoming, Kansas, Tennessee.  Same thing with Repubs in blue states.  


[ Parent ]
Corzine should have stayed in the Senate
boy he could have been very effective during the whole financial crisis period with his background in the financial industry and his very liberal views.


[ Parent ]
I've a better idea
The Dems pass a bill in the lame duck session that calls for a special election in short order when a senator dies or resigns, and requires that any temporary replacement be selected by the party committee of the party which the previous senator is from.

[ Parent ]
What's with Codey?
He seems to always be the most popular politician and never wants to run for anything.  

[ Parent ]
MO-09: Baker unlikely to run for congress again
Judy Baker lost to Blaine Luetkemeyer (49.9% to 47.5%), in an extremely conservative district where Obama got crushed. According to Claire McCaskill's twitter page, Judy Baker is the new regional director for HHS. I'm assuming this means no rematch and thus one less competitive race for a GOP seat next year.

Obama lost it 44-55
And I doubt Baker would be very competitive there in 2010.  Her chance was last year.

[ Parent ]
AD-72 Results...Absentees Only...
The good news: MacMurray seems certain to make the runoff. The bad news: the three GOP candidates are combining for 69% of the vote, while McMurray has around 28%.

Norby 36%, MacMurray 27%, Ackerman 20%, Faher 13%, Green Party Guy 3%

Impressively, nearly 29,000 votes already, and that is only the absentees. I suspect there wasn't a lot of walk-in voters, though...

"You share your young with the wolves of the nation, there's nothing left til you pray for salvation."

--Black Rebel Motorcycle Club

"American X"


where are you getting results?


[ Parent ]
MacMurray is going to the runoff.
It doesn't matter how many votes MacMurray gets, since he is the only Dem in the race and in California special elections, the top vote-getters of each party advance to the runoff if nobody gets 50%+1. So MacMurray is already guaranteed to go to the runoff unless one of the candidates gets 50%+1. Though MacMurray finishing with at least the second-highest number of votes would be a good morale-builder for OC Dems.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
With all precincts in
Norby, MacMurray, and Green candidate Jane Rands will advance to the runoff.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Redistricting
I've been compiling a list and was wondering if anyone wanted me to share when I'm done.

The list shows who exactly controls redistricting.  Most places it is the legislature and governor and if they can't agree supreme court.  A lot of places don't tell you who controls the supreme court though so I've been doing research on that.  

Then I've looked at what elections will matter for redistricting baring any vacancies and such.  It is a pretty interesting list with some surprises to me.  For instance the democrats conrol the Supreme court in Missouri so if there is no compromise then the courts get to sort it out which should be good news fro the dems


I think that
would be very interesting. If you don't want to post it, I would love to see it.

[ Parent ]
Post a diary!
Of course geeks like are interested!  Good place to talk shop on where to target in 2010.

[ Parent ]
To find out state Supreme Court info
I typically use ourcampaigns.com and wikipedia.  Though I'm sure there are many more good sites out there.

[ Parent ]

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