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AR-02: Snyder Narrowly Leads Griffin

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 16, 2009 at 12:20 PM EST


Public Policy Polling (pdf) (11/11-13, registered voters):

Vic Snyder (D-inc): 44
Tim Griffin (R): 43
Undecided: 13

Vic Snyder (D-inc): 45
David Meeks (R): 42
Undecided: 13

Vic Snyder (D-inc): 44
Scott Wallace (R): 42
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.9%)

When the NRCC got former US Attorney and Karl Rove acolyte Tim Griffin to run against Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder, it was clear this would be Snyder's biggest test in a while. PPP (which is starting to poll some southern House races in the next few months, with VA-09 coming next) confirms this, finding a 1-point edge for Snyder. Snyder, unlike many other southern Dems, has had some hard-fought races in his recent past (not in 2008, though -- he was unopposed), so he doesn't have much rust to shake off, but clearly this one will be hard-fought too.

However, this doesn't seem to be about Griffin as much as the Democratic brand in Arkansas, especially among independents (Barack Obama's approval is 41/52, despite this currently being the mostly Dem-leaning district in the state). Griffin, despite his Beltway reputation, is still little known in his district (with a 14/19 favorable), and Griffin only slightly overperforms two guys I've literally never heard of, who are even less known: 7/15 for David Meeks, whose website is appropriately whoisdavidmeeks.com, and 11/14 for Scott Wallace. Snyder's approval is 42/46, but it's at 30/56 among independents. Discontent with Snyder may be peaking right now in the wake of the health care reform vote, which is opposed by 55% of the district's voters, including 67% of independents.

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AR-02: Snyder Narrowly Leads Griffin | 81 comments
This is not going to make it easier
to get Blanche Lincoln's vote.  
Exactly
Though I'm sure most of the netroots will ignore it and flash their PO polling. Sigh.
[ Parent ]
well, why not?
Maybe they should all be like Periello and just do what's right for the country for once. Why even have politicians if they're not going to get anything done?

The South is just a lost cause. Vote for health care and you lose the 50% that's conservative without picking up anyone; vote against health care and lose the 20-30% that's liberal without picking up anyone. Either way you're gonna lose if you're used to winning by anything but a landslide. It's time the Dems just realize this and use these votes while they have them. I mean, we lost a lot of votes after the Civil Rights Act, and we knew we would, but it was the right thing to do, and years later everyone agreed. Maybe years from now we can take back some of these seats once all the craziness (intense reaction against an increasingly diverse world) has worn off and Southern whites realize health care was a good idea.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)

[ Parent ]
Not a case of picking anybody up
But about not losing moderate Republicans, mainstream conservatives and conservative Democrats. That pretty much describes Arkansas. Plenty of the 39 who voted no could have voted yes thus allowing Snyder to vote no and been less at risk but he probably just did what he thought was right as you say. Good for him. I just hope it doesn't cost him his seat.
[ Parent ]
yes we did lose a lot of votes on the Civil Rights Act
but those in districts/states where the public opposed it still voted no, even if they personally supported it (like J. William Fulbright and Al Gore)

I'm not so sure Southern white males realize civil rights were a good idea even today.  

[ Parent ]
It's not a new thing
for people to vote against their class interests, as I would see it, or to do so on account of race. They deserve a Republican Representative, if they vote for one. The problem is that the whole country is impacted by who people in every state vote for for Representative.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
That's just it
R2k had a poll that showed the public option is popular in
Arkansas...this being Arkansas' most Democratic district, it stands to reason that it would be popular here...and not like close, I mean REALLY popular.

If it's popular, then why the hell do people oppose the bill?

I don't know wtf people want, it's so frustrating, I almost want to say screw the whole thing, save the economy, get back to it in 2011.  

[ Parent ]
They don't really oppose the bill
What they oppose and hate with a passion is President Obama.  And they oppose anything he supports.  

If you asked many of these people whom they liked more: Obama or Adolf Hitler, I'm willing to bet that the deep in their hearts the answer would be Hitler.

[ Parent ]
No
They think Hitler and Obama are the same person.  These people are honesly so stupid they believe fascism is a left-wing ideology similar to communism.
[ Parent ]
Snyder, and other Southern Dems
should talk about nothing but job creation and the stimulus for the next year. Southern conservatives love to bemoan big government except when it benefits them at the local level in terms of earmarked projects which another republican consertaitve simply couldn't get. If they can make this race about a risky loss of government revenue by ousting a sitting, powerful representative, I think the Arkansas Dems can win.
Looks like Jsmith
is on his way to an I told you so.

These are TERRIBLE numbers for an entrenched incumbent against candidates who no one has ever heard of.

Maybe it wont be as bad all across the South but yikes, AR is getting rocked....  Really makes me wonder what wouldve happened if Hillary was our President right now.

Hillary
Exactly the same. Snyder has had competitive races before now. I think we should wait for more evidence before writing people off.
[ Parent ]
I don't know
the cynic in my beliefs Arkansas would have thought very differently about healthcare reform is the President wasn't...a black dude.  
[ Parent ]
Well alright
Arkansas maybe. The rest of the South and beyond I honestly think the same. Too much is being made of race.
[ Parent ]
That's exactly what it is
If it were President Hillary proposing the same thing (even with her past troubles on the issue) I doubt there would be much opposition in Arkansas.
[ Parent ]
I really don't see it
Her husband wasn't black. Same thing is happening.
[ Parent ]
Things have changed since 1994
Health care is a MUCH bigger disaster today than it was in 1993/94.  
[ Parent ]
Do you mean the politics or on the ground?
The politics is the same IMO. No worse no better.
[ Parent ]
No, he was just a race traitor
Which, if I understand correctly, was almost as bad.
[ Parent ]
true true
I've been called a race-traitor and a n-word lover for being a Democrat; I'm sure Clinton was called even worse. It's really not about outright race anymore, it's about what race these people think you support. Just to give you some perspective, I just got out of hs a few years ago in a blue state and I was called this. Some habits die hard.

21, Male, Democrat, MD-02 (home/registered), MD-05 (college)
[ Parent ]
not in Arkansas

[ Parent ]
Yes I conceeded that point
But the theory is entreched Dems in trouble throughout the South. Outside of AR I think the situation would be exactly the same with a second President Clinton. The "Socialism" charge is more important than race.
[ Parent ]
yeah
but outside of Arkansas or the already Republican South/West, I don't know where else we're seeing this kind of backlash against Healthcare reform.  
[ Parent ]
We'd Probably Be Trading
AR might not be as bad if the Clintons were back at the head of the party, but we'd just be losing that much ground somewhere else.

I think we'd also be dealing with some very unpopular choices on Afghanistan and Health Care, so things could be even WORSE...

[ Parent ]
Many mostly Southern conservaDem establishments
supposedly panicked when it looked like HRC would carry the primary and Edwards had hit a ceiling around 20%.  Their people went to and cut a deal with Obama precisely because they didn't want this kind of election environment to form in 2008.  Caucuses and primaries in return for centrism.

Federal elections seem to come in pairs lately, i.e. a midterm gets some faction to control the national agenda in Congress and the Presidential election tends to get them the President to carry out parts of it.  2006 and 2008 form a pretty typical pair, much like 1990&92, 2002&04.  Clinton and Bush formally muddled things up with opposite Party wins in 1996 and 2000, respectively.  But both won by coopting and running on large parts of the agenda of the then-dominant Congressional faction nonetheless.

Thing is, every recent midterm does reflect the electorate feeling that the dominant faction has had its shot, probably disposing of a major problem or two or three, but isn't adequate to the next set of problems that become public priority.

I don't think I'm going to shed a whole lot of tears for the conservaDems losing power and office in '10 and probably in '12 as well.  They thwarted liberals and progressives the past two elections to the extent they could.  They were the people who most got their way in the '06 and '08 elections, and now...well, there's a price to be paid for power, especially power used to do so little of use.


[ Parent ]
Problem with that is
Snyder is a reliable vote. I don't think people should be shocked when lots of these Blue Dogs come back for the very reason they bucked the party. Some will lose but at the moment I would hazard a guess that more good Dems will lose than bad. I know that isn't popular among the netroots but I think it meshes with history.
[ Parent ]
This wasn't specifically about Snyder
who is pretty good in my book.  Just sort of a general picture- we're not looking too good on Southern/Plains governors other than keeping Beebe and Beshear around.  In Senate seats, it's mostly vulnerability of Lincoln vs vulnerability of Burr.  (Though we're looking good on Robin Carnahan, admittedly.)

I agree about those voters not making that much distinction, and then mostly by incumbency, on the level of the House.  I guess I'm thinking mostly of a really bad election day for Democrats on the level of state legislatures and such.  All that borrowed time they've been on in state government in places like Lousiana and Mississippi could end.

[ Parent ]
Don't you think a lot of this is to some degree idle speculation
until it's clearer what state the economy - especially unemployment and foreclosures - will be in toward election time? I think that is likely to be the #1 determining factor in how people vote, with the foreign wars and the degree of security or insecurity over health care as #2 and #3 in some order, depending on events. Of course, something completely unforeseen (God forbid, a huge terrorist attack - I hope not) could happen between now and then, too.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
That's the way the pundits and Beltway experts
are seeing it, it's the conventional wisdom.  But I'm not sure it's right.

I just don't see the unemployment plus actually changing the ideological interpretations people already have and will bring to the voting booth.  The Leftist populists are blaming Republicans, the Right wing populists are blaming Democrats.  It all works against ticket splitting, I suspect.

I don't see how to de-link healthcare reform from that.  As a country our national dialogue on that, with all this cant against and about 'government', is basically whether we should take the decisive step from minimal to mid-level social democracy.  Which means more properly regulated capitalism.

For all the sound and fury about all kinds of things, I think that's going to be the larger-yet-narrower, up-and-down partisan issue central to the '10/'12 elections.

I think the Right continues to dictate and provide cover for things carrying on in Afghanistan until ObL is eliminated.  I've come to impression that the end of American involvement in Iraq is more linked to changes in Iranian government than Democrats want, but less so than Republicans/neocons insist.  I don't think either will be much of an election issue.

There's little/danger to Democrats in office from an Al Qaeda attack, in my opinion.  There's a clear pattern in polling for Republican support peaking to some ceiling and rapid dropoff to an even lower lever shortly thereafter.

'9/11' got approval for Republicans on 'fighting terrorism' to over 92%, and it fell to 92%/8% opposed in the weeks afterwards.  The 8% (hard Left folks) resorted to LIHOP and other excuses to rationalize their opposition.  The 24% liberals supported to going to Afghanistan but went over to opposition, i.e. dropped the overall numbers to 68/32 net approval for Republicans, on 'fighting terrorism' after Tora Bora in late November/early December 2001.

The 6% moderate Democrats gave up on Republicans on 'fighting terrorism' after the Madrid train bombings in April 2004, leaving a 62/38 split still in favor of Republicans.  Kerry struggled hard with that, but the bias probably cost him the 2004 election.

The London train/bus bombings in July 2005 peaked out anxiety and Republican support to that 62% very briefly (maybe a day); the dropoff was rapid (within three days) to 49% Republican support and majority support for not-Republicans on 'fighting terrorism'.  The polls didn't even catch the peaking fully, it was over that fast.  And if the Presidential election had been held in August 2005, I think Kerry would have won: Bush/Republicans had no majority left in any major policy area at that point.

Anyway, long story short- the next substantial Al Qaeda attack in/on the West/American allies (e.g. USA, UK, Israel) will probably spike Republican support on 'fighting terrorism' to the mid/high forties very briefly and collapse it to the next ideological factional line to the right- to 38%.  Or maybe even 32%.

There's also this trendline:  9/11: 3,000 Western civilians killed (more than 2,000 of them indirectly/accidentally).  Tora Bora/Afghanistan: AQ and its ideological, non-nationalist, allies account for maybe a few hundred Westerners killed, mostly soldiers etc.  Madrid: 220 Western civilians killed.  London: 60 Western civilians killed.

At this point, Al Qaeda has vowed to hit Israel- the likely point would be Tel Aviv.  And it will likely go at New York City one more time, just to prove to its own that it has some remaining power to strike and won't take KSM's trial lying down.  But that trendline of loss of effectiveness suggests that the next successful attack(s) are likely on the order of few dozens of victims.

[ Parent ]
Your answer about the polling on terrorism
is really interesting, and I thank you.

But it doesn't address my central point about unemployment, so let me clarify. If unemployment and foreclosures are still very high come election time, people who might otherwise support the Democrats will feel let down and will therefore be less like to show up at the polls. By default, that would in my opinion trigger great gains for the Republicans.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I agree with that
I think the cutoff is around 10%.  If unemployments drops below that nationally and shows signs of further improvement Dems may be in good shape.  Of course that will vary by state.  States like Michigan are going to be over 15% unemployment for a long time which should hurt our chances at holding the Governorship.

But the stock market turnaround should offset unemployment a bit.  People who still have their jobs are surely happy with the way their investments have turned around the past two quarters.

[ Parent ]
Snyder isn't a conservadem

[ Parent ]
Whatever satisfaction I would get
from a "I told you so" is erased by the fact that one of the real good ones in the South is in trouble.  
Vic Snyder is not a useless Blue Dog, but rather one of our better progressives in the South.
[ Parent ]
Deep breath everyone
Take a look at the breakdown by race.
what If?
I'm to panicked to check the breakdown? The sky is falling you know.
[ Parent ]
Speaking of freaking out for no apparent reason...
What ever happened to Tekzilla?
[ Parent ]
Still posting
Strangely getting slightly less concerned the more the situation has deteriorated for Dems. Go figure.
[ Parent ]
Our old "friend" BillNolan
Still pops up in a number of different guises mind you. That guy makes Tek look like his glass is overflowing!
[ Parent ]
Snyder will be fine in 2010
Right now people are frustrated, and telling pollsters they are voting against the incumbent is a way to vent their frustration. But on election day Snyder will win.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
i'm not sure
I was saying that about Corzine at the beginning of the year.
[ Parent ]
If you look at the internals
it shows that Congressional Republicans are dislike by about the same amount as Congressional Democrats.

It seems that voters have a distaste of incumbents in general. But I think that Dems are only going to lose a net amount of seats in the South.  

[ Parent ]
PPP says
even though that's true, those who hate both parties are tending to lean Republican because of "checks and balances"
[ Parent ]
This is a not bad poll
We should be underdogs all over teh south in majority white districts, and we should probably lose one or two seats in Arkansas.

These numbers will improve if health care passes (and thus mostly passes of the news), or if the economy doesn't get worse.  Both those are no better than 50/50, but if either happens that will help.

One way to look at this as good though is, if Snyder campaigns hard whatever the result, that helps Lincoln.

[ Parent ]
Yeah could be worse
I would also add that PPP doesn't have the best record polling House districts. Though we probably should give them a pass for NY-23 given the circumstances.
[ Parent ]
Not sure Snyder helps Lincoln
In some respects, Snyder and Berry actually weakened Lincoln and Ross by voting yes.  Speaking from a position on the ground, people aren't really foaming at the mouths over Berry and Snyder (who has Pulaski county to help him survive) but rather about Lincoln, who a lot of Democrats are now calling "Plantation Blanche".  Arkansans are pretty good at splitting their tickets, always have been.  If Blanche is going to win, she's got to pull it together on her own, and if she votes no on healthcare, even if she doesn't fillibuster, Democrats are going to throw up their hands and walk away from her.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
A concept in areas with above average ticket splitting
is to get people to cast more than ONE vote your way.  I can see a lot of people voting Beebe and then all red.  But if Snyder is on the air and on the ground aggressively, more people will be tempted to tuch another blue lever, and then another.

If people walk away from Lincoln and act to benefit a wingnut opponent over one vote, then they deserve what they get.

Issues here shouldn't make the slightest difference.  The only issue for Arkansas in 2010 is the Team Blue brand.  Will Arkansas be like Missouri, or will it be like Oklahoma.  That's what is at stake.

[ Parent ]
I don't think that works
That whole thing just sounds fishy to me.  I'd like to see some data backing up whether or not that works and, if so, how well.

And issues always make the difference.  If you're not voting based on issues and policy than why vote or be involved in politics at all?  Right now, Arkansans of all stripes are looking at Lincoln and saying "Why should I vote for this woman?  What is she doing for me?"  The sense is that she just doesn't care about working people, poor people, African Americans are talking about how she takes them for granted, young voters don't see any reason to vote for her, family farmers complain about her voting for big agribusiness all the time, unions are tired of her resisting reform, etc.  The sentiment on the ground is that Blanche just doesn't care about any of us and is only looking out for herself.  So tell me, how do you go out and knock on these people's doors and ask them to vote for Blanche Lincoln, then explain to them that yes, even if she votes like Republicans she's still better than Republicans?  How do you sell voters on a politician that can't convince them she cares about them?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Speaking of Arkansas
When I went on my road trip to Missouri I passed through a good portion of Arkansas.  Went through the Ozark mountains/northern part of the state.  It was the only region I really felt awkward.  A couple people called me a *igger lover when they saw my Obama bumper sticker and several more people gave me dirty looks.  Very strange looking mountain people you got in that part of the state.
[ Parent ]
my great uncle moved to Arkansas in 1967
to work for Withrop Rockefeller. He just moved back to New York this year, at age 85, because he said it just got to the point where he couldn't "stomach the morons" anymore.

I hate to rag on Arkansas, but I find it interesting that this is a man who moved to the state at the end of the Faubus era and thinks the state is worse now than it was then.

[ Parent ]
And here's the difference
Back then there were people willing to stand up with the courage to do what was right, people willing to go out on a limb like Win Rockefeller, who led a chorus of "We Shall Overcome" when King was shot, and Dale Bumpers who worked to integrate his local county's school district without violence.  We've seen some bad shit here-my mom can remember going to school with armed soldiers enforcing integration and still breaks down in tears remembering how frightening that time was.  But we got through it, in large part because there were people here willing to do the right thing and risk everything to do it.  The fights we have today pale in comparison to all that-can you really say healthcare is a tougher fight than civil rights?  But we have chicken shits like Lincoln and corrupt politicians like Ross rather than leaders and heroes.  That's why it's so important for us to stand our ground and never back away from what we think is right.  That, more than anything, will turn things around.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Well not all of them were that brave
J. Willia Fulbright wouldn't vote for the Civil Rights Act even though he supported it and Wilbur Mills held Medicare up for months.

But it seems to me that Vic Snyder seems to have the courage to do what's right and he's getting the shit kicked out of him for it...why would anybody bother?

I said a few months ago that if I were in Blanche Lincoln's shoes, I'd retire, this really isn't worth it to me. I can do what my constituents want and get punished for it, or I can do what I think is right, and get punished for it.

[ Parent ]
Tough decisions are a part of politics
If you can't make them, you shouldn't be in the game.

That aside, you're right, not everyone from that day showed courage, but that really isn't the point.  The point is that there were those who did and the fact that they were often in the minority shows the difference one or two people can actually make.

That said, if you want to reward Snyder and Berry for their political courage, you could always throw them some change on my actblue page: http://www.actblue.com/page/bl...  Part of the problem for even slightly progressive Democrats in Arkansas is that progressive forces (unions, activists, etc.) aren't organized the way business groups and the Christian Right are.  So me and some fellow activists are working on changing that with the fundraising page and the Blue Arkansas blog http://www.bluearkansas.blogsp...  You're right that building support for these politicians is essential, but holding them accountable is important as well and just because decisions are hard is no excuse for giving up or running scared.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
Lol, yeah, the northwest is different from the rest of the state
It's always been strongly Republican.  I'm a flat lander from the delta for the record, but my Dad lives up that way.  The thing with those people you have to remember is that they're, how to say this, very leery of outsiders.  It goes way back to when that region basically served as an escape from the dreaded tax collecter back in the eighteen hundreds.  Take it from someone who drives up there with his Obama sticker displayed proudly-don't let 'em scare you.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
Ya
When I stopped in the parts of Arkansas further south people were polite.  The Ozarks are a different story.  I felt like it was a scene from Deliverance.  Weird that they are so racist considering I never saw a single non-white person in that part of the state.

That region is a bitch to drive through.  For a good hour or so my GPS still showd the same distance to Springfield, MO!  I was basically just zigzagging around mountains getting seemingly nowhere.  I'm not used to mountains in being from Florida.

[ Parent ]
I had to make that drive yesterday
and I nearly ran over some chickens in a po'dunk town.  And as a flatlander, trust me, I hate driving in the mountains.

The point you made about race is a clear one.  The greater the diversity of an area the more tolerant you'll find the white population generally.  That's not to say that racism doesn't exist in, say, the Delta where I come from (and trust me, I've seen more of it than I ever want to see), but yeah the attitudes are noticably different.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure
There is plenty of diversity in major cities and still a lot of problems.  Most major cities in the southeast have as many issues in that department as rural areas.  Can you honestly tell me the rich sububranite areas I saw outside of Birmingham get along well with the residents of the inner city?  Doubt it.
[ Parent ]
No no no
As I said, there is greater diversity on the Delta but racism is still strong here.  It's strong across the country, including in cities.  But at the same time, diversity does help at least a certain segment of the population bridge their differences, and that's enough to open doors and provide hope for the future.  (I'd also want to see just how segregated neighborhoods are in the cities you mentioned.).

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
One thing I did learn during my drive
It might be a good time to invest in Dollar General.  Seriously, every small town I passed for several hundred miles (all population <1000) had a Dollar General, often as the only store in town.  They were all packed.
[ Parent ]
That's small town life for you.
[ Parent ]
I am unaware of any study, but it's common sense and common politics
Suppose you have a ten race ballot.  If you are Team Blue, who would you rather have cast the deciding ballot for the 10th race, a person with 1 blue vote and 8 red ones, or a person with 7 blue votes and 2 red ones?
[ Parent ]
I have two degrees on my wall that say political science
and I'm working on putting a third one on there that says the same and I have never heard anything about that until now from you.  Like I said, show me a study.

That said, would you mind taking a stab at my other question?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com

[ Parent ]
What question?
And if you have never heard anything about that it is better to have a 7-2 voter casting a ballot than a 1-8, well there isn't much else to say about that.
[ Parent ]
My other question was how you expect us to sell Lincoln to Arkansas voters this year?
[ Parent ]
And just to skip ahead a step
The concept is called a "Coattail effect", where either up-ballot or down-ballot races effect the results of other races.
[ Parent ]
I don't think that's the coattail effect
And I think this idea of yours is a load of bunk.  People vote for who they like or what they believe in, that's the bottom line, and the numbers game depends on the candidates themselves.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
I don't think the economy not getting worse is going to be nearly good enough
There has to be less unemployment in 2010 or the Democrats are gonna get clobbered and deserve it (though the Republicans won't deserve to be beneficiaries, they would be, by default).

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Cross
Teabaggery is in full throttle, 21% of people polled thing the GOP is to Liberal.

We just need Beebe to campaign for AK Dems. He has miraculously kept his approval int he 70's, he should be able to work his magic with Snyder.

I'm not sure how effective Beebe is in Alaska...
but I think he would work wonders with Arkansas Democrats downticket :p
[ Parent ]
But you can see Russia
From Little Rock.  
[ Parent ]
To the people saying "This wouldn't be happening if Clinton were president"
Allow me to point out that the only Republican Senator elected from Arkansas since Reconstruction was Tim Hutchinson, who was elected in 1996 even as Bill Clinton won the state with 54% of the vote.

Also, although Clinton won the state in 1992, a Republican won the 4th District for the first time ever. Mike Ross won the district back in 2000... When Gore was on the ticket (and oddly enough, Gore won the 1st and 4th but lost the 2nd).

As for Snyder's HCR vote -- it doesn't matter if he voted for it or against it. Voters don't really care about these votes when it comes down to it. If they did, then moderate Republicans like Lincoln Chafee and Jim Leach wouldn't have lost in 2006. It's antipathy towards the party in power that drives voters to get rid of them.

Well the whole Jim Guy Tucker thing happened in 1996 too
which helped Hutchinson win.  
[ Parent ]
Of course the enviornment would have been better for dems in the south with Clinton as president
Clinton lead McCain in a rasmussen poll in kentucky 51 to 42 while Obama trailed 57-32 in that poll.  Clinton lead McCain in a survey USA poll in north carolina 49-43.  I saw a poll where Clinton and McCain were very close in Alabama.

Clinton could have come close to sweeping the south as bad as the enviornment was for the dems.  Look how good bill clinton did in southern states.  He won states like tennessee which obama lost by 16 percent.

Obama's approval rating in vic snyder's district is 41 percent that is what is dragging him down.  I'd imagine Clinton's rating in the district would be in the sixties.

Dems in the south are going to be in trouble with Obama's low approval ratings.  There was a special election in Tennessee a few months ago in a swing district in which the democrat was crushed.

Lincoln has no chance of re-election with Obama's approval numbers so low in arkansas where as Clinton was president Lincoln would be in much better shape.

The 2010 electorate will be much less youth as 10 percent of youth showed up in virginia in 2009 which was way down from 2008.

The electorate in 2010 will also have far fewer minorities.

Clinton would have been much better positioned to face a older whiter electorate in 2010.  Obama's coalition will not be there in 2010.

I also don't like the comparisons to 1994 because bush jr left the gop in such shambles that with the crazy tea partiers and the gop in such bad shape I don't think dems would have lost that many seats in 2010 with Clinton.

The only reason why the gop has a chance in 2010 is the angry white voter in a small electorate.  With Clinton in office she would have negated this and those same angry white voters would be much more willing to stick with the dems.  

Now in the long run having Clinton run in 8 years could be beneficial because she is the stronger candidate and it is harder to win after one party has been in power for 8 years.  

Obama also is in very strong position to win by a wide margin in 2012.

But for off year elections in 2010 and 2014 Obama isn't the ideal candidate for the older whiter angry electorate.  Clinton would have been much better positioned for these off year elections.

If you are a southern dem in off year elections you have an angry white electorate without obama's coalition and that isn't a good place to be in.  

I don't really want to re-fight the primary
But I think that is wishful thinking. Bill being president didn't help other Democrats in the South.
[ Parent ]
please...
There's no sense looking back and trying to guess how things would be different if we'd picked Clinton.  None of us know, the best we can do is make a guess, and frankly it seems like a waste of time and mental energy.

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
[ Parent ]
I seem to remember a poll showing Obama close in Mississippi
One poll showing Clinton close in Alabama proves nothing. It could have simply been an outlier.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
older white people
didn't care much for Hillary Clinton either. I do agree we'd be in far better shape in Arkansas with her than with Obama, I don't necessarily think that is true elsewhere.

The same teabaggers who hate Obama would've hated her too, especially the men. A liberal woman as Commander-in-Chief? That would've gone over well with white Southern men.  

[ Parent ]
One of the biggest problems in Arkansas...
is that no one is making a case for this sort of thing.  Things get tough here, Democrats get going...in the opposite direction as fast as possible.  Even when Dems do the right thing, like Snyder and Berry did with the healthcare vote, they try to hide behind a line like "it's not perfect but..." and then change the subject or vanish all together.  Lovely how much that's helping the Democratic brand ain't it?

http://www.bluearkansasblog.com
They are polling VA-09?
It's like they are trying to encourage Kilgore to enter the race by showing him a poll that shows Boucher as vulnerable! One of the reasons Kilgore gave in September for not running:

Kilgore said he has not seen a poll on his chances in the race.

I find it
rather difficult to imagine that Kilgore is sitting around waiting for a Dem-leaning polling firm to tell him whether or not he should get it. Surely in the midst of the polling frenzy earlier this year, someone in the Virginia GOP ran some hypothetical internals in the district, in the time between when Kilgore made that statement and now at the very least.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Yeah
I've been predicting Kilgore will run since the Democrats got crushed in VA-09 this month.
[ Parent ]
Norquisit challenge to Huckabee
"We're going to put together a list of all the people thinking of running for president and ... give assignments to each of the would-be presidential candidates. For instance, if the former governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee would like to run and be thought of as a serious candidate he better win that Senate seat in Arkansas

ref http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33...

I suspect Snyder's house seat would be "extra credit" work for Huckabee

AR-02: Snyder Narrowly Leads Griffin | 81 comments

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