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WI-Gov: Barrett Will Run

by: James L.

Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 12:41 AM EST


From the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel:

Mayor Tom Barrett will announce this weekend that he is running for governor, the Journal Sentinel has learned.

"You would not be inaccurate to write that," a top adviser to the two-term mayor said today.

A second Milwaukee Democrat who has firsthand knowledge of Barrett's plans said the mayor will be running to try to replace Gov. Jim Doyle, who announced earlier that he would not seek a third term.

Barrett is expected to reveal his plans publicly at noon Sunday, ending three months of pondering and speculation.

Barrett, who earned a flood of positive media coverage for his heroic intervention in an assault at the Wisconsin State Fair earlier this year, is about as strong a candidate as Democrats could muster in order to keep this office in the blue column. File this one under "good news".

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James L. :: WI-Gov: Barrett Will Run
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WI-Gov: Barrett Will Run | 38 comments
Good news, if not a surprise
WI should fall into the clear Lean D column now.
Careful...
from the article:

Polls by both sides have put Walker and Barrett neck-and-neck. No polling has been released publicly that puts Neumann in a head-to-head match-up with Barrett.

There's no indication Barrett has this thing anywhere near the bag yet.  Walker and/or Neumann aren't simply going to roll over for Barrett.

[ Parent ]
"Lean" != "walk over cinch"
It's not in the bag by any means, but he's the best possible elected official candidate (except Kohl of course).
[ Parent ]
Can someone please explain his popularity?
Kohl has always struck me as somewhat of a boring backbencher. I never understood his consistently good popularity ratings.  It's not like he's all that moderate.  His record is almost as liberal as Feingold's.  He's just not as outspoken.  He's also done a crap job as owner of the Bucks.
[ Parent ]
Kohl is really wealthy and completely self funds
He never takes a dime of campaign money from individuals, businesses, or PAC's, and runs tons of ads calling himself "Nobody's Senator but Yours," due to the fact that he doesn't have to fundraise.  

He just blankets the airwaves with so many positive ads that the Republicans are afraid to run a viable candidate against him.  He really hasn't even faced serious opposition since his first race.

In some ways the fact that he's a boring backbencher actually helps him in the sense that he's not scary--he's just little old Herb Kohl, Wisconsin's Favorite Millionaire (Especially now that Brett Favre is a Viking.)

[ Parent ]
No, but
it's a much better shot with someone who doesn't have ties to the unpopular Doyle administration.
[ Parent ]
Strongest in Field
Barrett appears, from what I have read about him, to be the strongest candidate the Democratic Party could have recruited; and one who would appear to be strongly positioned out of the gate to retain the Governorship.

I am not overly familiar with WI politics though, so I will leave any real analysis of his ability to win the race to those who are.  

Democrat: TN-8

I was actually expecting this to happen once Lawton dropped out

Finally
Democrats managed to get a strong recruit for a statewide race, unlike in North Carolina.
Which race?
Are you talking about Perdue for Gov in 2008 or Marshall for Senate in 2010?  Because I don't think anyone except for Cooper would have any real shot in NC next year.
[ Parent ]
I think Cal Cunningham could have beaten Burr
he had the incredible charisma to sell his message.
[ Parent ]
What do you like about him so much?
I just honestly don't really see what everyone is so drawn to. I think charisma only takes you so far and he has the aura of a career politician to me, yet at the same time he seems to be liked because of his outsider status. I think Elaine would be a great candidate and the DSCC has essentially torpedoed her campaign. By treating her like she doesn't even exist, if she were to win the primary then she would have trouble fundraising because people would think that she was a poor candidate if she hadn't been backed by the DSCC in the first place. I can understand why they would've favored Etheridge over her possibly, but the fact that they are still trying to undermine her by recruiting Cunningham really bothers me.
[ Parent ]
He's the type of candidate that is needed in NC
Both Hagan and especially Perdue owe their positions to Obama driving up voter totals.  To win this seat we need the youth and the minority vote to show up.  Cunningham would get the youth vote for sure, and with a little help from Obama he could get the minority vote.  He also appeals to military personnel and has a populist streak to help grab crossover votes in the rural areas.  I'll admit that he has the potential to fall flat on his face as a candidate, particularly if he can't fundraise, but he has all the qualities of the candidate needed to beat Burr in an off year.  Marshall is a safe choice and she won't embarress the party, but that's not what I'm looking for.  I don't care if she has all the name recognition in the world, I want somebody with a legitimate shot at winning and I think I would go so far as to say even Kevin Foy has a better shot than Mrs. Marshall.
[ Parent ]
I'm going to say this again
I think charisma only takes you so far and he has the aura of a career politician to me, yet at the same time he seems to be liked because of his outsider status

Sounds very much like the complaints against a certain state senator in 2003.  Dan Hynes had been a statewide officeholder for 4 years and was a solid candidate in 2004 as well.

[ Parent ]
NC-Sen 2010
That race was the one I was referring to. Since Cal Cunningham declined, it seems the race is lacking a strong fresh face to rally voters and get the base excited. Burr COULD be the first Senator to get reelected in this seat for a long time.
[ Parent ]
I wish Marc Basnight wanted to run v. Burr
He's the NC Senate Pres Pro Tem - gets consistent bipartisan raves - and should have been allowed to defeat Dole in '02. But Bowles pushed him aside. He'd be perfect for '10, but it seems to be past his time (he's 62 now).
[ Parent ]
62 isn't bad
The average age of a senator seems to be around 55-65 anyway. Basnight could serve one term and leave, since he would lose reelection anyway (Sam Erwin's cursed seat).
[ Parent ]
I gather Basnight's enjoying his NC leadership position
and may not want to reboot as a freshman Senator. But I'm convinced that he could get more than average numbers of R crossover votes because of his image - without tacking further to the right of say Kay Hagen.
[ Parent ]
Basnight has a degenerative nerve disorder
He was diagnosed with it last spring and it will disable him in about 10-20 years, so I think he will probably want to spend his last few years in public service in the state senate. He really enjoys being President Pro Tempore of the state senate (one of the most powerful positions in state government), and I think that is what he wants to be his legacy.  
[ Parent ]
Elaine Marshall is a very strong recruit against Burr
People on this site don't know a good candidate when they have one. Like everyone thinks that Lee Fischer is better than Brunner when its the opposite. This is how we end with candidates like Creigh Deeds who get crushed in the general election.
[ Parent ]
She is a good candidate
And if the election were in 2006 or 2008 she probably would have rolled Burr.  I just have a feeling that NC, like most of the south, will be where Dems fare poorly in 2010.
[ Parent ]
Remember: He narrowly won North Carolina
And here's a headline on Taegan Goddard's Political Wire:

November 13, 2009: Obama Approval Rises in North Carolina

The brief article states that Obama is about as popular as he was when the 2008 election was held. Take that for what it's worth.

I think we have to distinguish between states Obama won and states he lost heavily.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I live in NC
he won New North Carolina, where blacks, youth, and metro voters turned out in huge numbers.  Obama would have certainly lost Old North Carolina (the electorate in 2000, 2002,2004, and 2006) handily.

My guess is that the electorate in 2010 will be closer to Old North Carolina, unfortunately.

[ Parent ]
Yes, but Obama's not running in 2010
It will be a statewide official like Elaine Marshall, rather than a state senator in 2008. It will be against a weaker incumbent, Richard Burr's approval ratings have consistently been meek, and he will continue being one of the most endangered incumbents if not the most. Kay Hagan likely won both the 'new' AND the 'old' North Carolina in 2008.

We've still got a pretty good outlook from here.

[ Parent ]
Burr a weaker incumbent than Dole?
Is that what you mean? And if so, I'd love to hear how he is.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Well
Poll numbers for one thing:

North Carolina Sen. Richard Burr has a 37 percent approval rating among adults in the state as he prepares his campaign for re-election, according to a poll released Friday.

The Elon University survey shows that 22 percent of respondents disapprove of the way the Republican lawmaker is handling his job. Forty-one percent didn't know how they felt about his performance.

Democrats are eager to challenge Burr in his re-election bid next year. His numbers are better than two Democrats in office - Sen. Kay Hagan and Gov. Beverly Perdue - but his approval numbers are lower than those seen in a similar poll done of former Sen. Elizabeth Dole two years ago.

Dole, who had approval ratings of 50 percent in September 2007, was ousted from her seat last year.


[ Parent ]
This is from about two weeks ago

[ Parent ]
Brunner might well be
Better than Fisher. But unless she raises some proper money it is irrelavant. At the moment she is costing any chance of defeating Portman. But I agree with you about Marshall.
[ Parent ]
She's second tier
But then again Hagen was regarded as second tier.  She worked out well.  Marshall seems like a good candidate.  I just don't think that will be enough in a less favorable year than 2008.
[ Parent ]
Agree
Nate said it best a couple months ago - current environment Burr wins against whoever but probably loses if things turn.
[ Parent ]
Also
North Carolina may not be the bloodbath part of the South.  Even if we see a tsunami in the South, which I doubt, it's areas like McIntyre and Shuler's district that worry me...and I think Burr might have won those anyway (outside of Fayetteville and Buncombe County, respectively).  I suspect the RTP and the heavily AA counties of the 1st and 12th will still kill Burr.  Places like Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, and, maybe Kentucky, where things are slipping away, don't have quite that strong of a minority population (outside of AL-7).  That's where, if we do lose, we probably will take the hardest hit.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
They will if we turn out
I suspect the RTP and the heavily AA counties of the 1st and 12th will still kill Burr.  

I don't know too many here in RTP that care for Burr, but the biggest problem is turnout.

[ Parent ]
Same thing I said about Ashwin Madia
And we all know how well that worked yet.

Madia has recently started up his own law firm and told some bloggers when they interviewed him and checked up on him that Madia is indeed interested in running for office again at some point.

[ Parent ]
I said back then Bonoff was the better candidate back in 2008
And nobody believed me.  I still think his ethnicity was what did him in more than anything else.  Hopefully Dems can get the governorship and gerrymander Paulson and Bachmann out of their seats.
[ Parent ]
WB CiFL

[ Parent ]
chad
nice to see you again chad

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions
[ Parent ]
She's okay but not good
I love her to death, but I don't think she has what it takes to come from behind.  I would love to eat these words, but take it from somebody on the ground, we would have been better off with Cunningham or even Richard Moore.
[ Parent ]
from my selfish perspective
I am hoping that a strong candidate in WI gives the DGA more money to potentially spend in IA. Culver is going to need it.
WI-Gov: Barrett Will Run | 38 comments

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