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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: James L.

Fri Nov 13, 2009 at 6:12 PM EST


How about something a little bit different this week: In the comments, tell us about your favorite electoral race(s) of all time.

I have a lot of personal favorites myself, but at or near the top of the list was 2008's gong show in NY-13, a sordid story of which you are all familiar. Every week in that contest was more entertaining than the last!
James L. :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 167 comments
OH-sen
Those latest polls are horrible, I was almost sure that would be our easiest win...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
A stronger Dem like Ryan
And it would have been. These two are eating each other.
[ Parent ]
They have?
Some examples?
[ Parent ]
Meaning neither are good fundraisers
Fisher is better but the primary is tied and to win it he will end up financially uncompetitive with Portman. His Bush ties are key to beating him but at the moment I'd say people are going to get a one-sided picture of the guy and one that is not good for Democrats. Can't really blame Brunner for sticking with it but she is DOA IMO.
[ Parent ]
Easier than MO?
At this point that's the only Senate pickup that feels like a lock.
[ Parent ]
Lock?
Too optimistic. I think Robin will edge it but tossup is th only fair rating given the state, the polls, fundraising and national environment.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
She's a strong candidate, to be sure, but MO's a tough road to hoe for Dems many times. Fortunately, Blunt picked the wrong year to run for higher office while being associated with House Republicans. And a number of Missourians already think he's a jackass, which always helps....   :)

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.
[ Parent ]
I think too much is being assumed
if Robin runs a tough race that actually sets the pace on the economy and putting Missouri first, she'll do fine. If she lets Roy Blunt set the issues and the pace, she will lose. One of the worst things you can do here is assuming that this isn't a neck-and-neck race.

If Robin Carnahan declining to take a position on the Health Care bill is a sign of how her general election campaign is gonna go, it's going to be a lot closer than it should be. Or worse.

[ Parent ]
we need jobs to pick up before next fall
and we need Obama not to copy Herbert Hoover and prioritize deficit reduction over getting the economy going.
[ Parent ]
He can do both
the deficit is really a problem for him too, we have to keep that in mind whether we like to think so or not.  
[ Parent ]
Yep
Once health care is out of the way the agenda will be
jobs and the deficit.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

[ Parent ]
The deficit is irrelevant
politically to people concerned about losing their job.  
[ Parent ]
Things can change fast
once the job market begins to improve, and there are quite a few who are starting to believe that will happen sooner than we think, you'll see how fast the public turns to the deficit. This is a wise move to get ahead of a potential political problem next year.

Anyway, the deficit is a huge issue for everyone I talk to, I mean huge, we need to get in front of this.  

[ Parent ]
This is an easy issue for the Dems
to answer, they simply need to blame George W Bush, his wars and his recession for the deficits.

Much tougher will be the issue of jobs.  Blaming Bush will work for a while, but people elected Obama to turn around  the economy.

[ Parent ]
yeah that's not going to fly after this year
Same with jobs, the public is already beginning to ask "ok, Bush screwed up, what are you doing to fix it?"

It's not Obama's deficit, but it's his to fix.

[ Parent ]
I'm hoping
that Obama is rhetoricing the deficit, and really is just going to prioritize on the economy.  
[ Parent ]
But even now the group of employed folks is the vast majority of voters
So people with more secure-ish jobs look to the future and see nothing but red ink. It's a concern some people have, and with the size of our debt, it's legitimate (certainly moreso than say, gay marriage).  

If nothing else, Obama moving to defuse the issue politically as much as possible is deft. He's not Herbert Hoover. Besides, our tax collection scheme is tied much more closely to how the economy's doing than anything else. Turn that around and revenues will rise dramatically.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
They know what they are doing
"Administration officials say the Obama economic team is especially concerned that rapid deficit reduction could hurt the economy."

They are going to concentrate on both which is the right thing to do in terms of both policy and politically.

[ Parent ]
Good news
Reid: Senate will take up 2010 jobs bill

Quoted from thehill.com:

Senate Democrats will take up a new job-creation bill in the wake of the 10.2 percent unemployment rate, Majority Leader Harry Reid told his colleagues Tuesday.

Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) told The Hill that Reid (D-Nev.) made the announcement about a new jobs bill at the Senate Democrats' weekly lunch.

Reid said he was looking at an initiative focused on job creation "and that our caucus will take it up," Cardin said.

Reid didn't specify what would be in the bill, but he said that it was going to be "one of the priorities" for the Senate, Cardin added.

Of course, we'll have to see whether this is a sufficiently large jobs program and whether the idiot "moderates" in the party are willing to actually support something that benefits the working class.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
I'm not to thrilled
unless suddenly Reid and congress has gotten a clue this "jobs bill" is going to be another half assed water down piece of legistation.  
[ Parent ]
It's too late to affect 2010
This should have been passed in early to mid 2009 in order to ease unemployment by the 2010 elections.  Much like the stimulus bill a jobs bill would take considerable time to work.  
[ Parent ]
welcome back!
Good to see you.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Good to see ya too.  I'm still reading your stuff over at Open Left.  When I can tolerate the Obama hatred over there that is. lol
[ Parent ]
Sadly, you're probably right
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I disagree
just the passage of a jobs bill would show that the Dems are advocating serious solutions.  That along with a vicious negative attack campaign featuring George W Bush will limit losses.
[ Parent ]
in a way, Obama is to blame for the unemployment percentage
after all, if he would have done what Republicans wanted, then people would be off of unemployment insurance, and therefore no longer counted as unemployed.

History's greatest monster. No doubt about it.

The way that Unemployment is measured is typically a giant sham that won't be discarded since nobody wants to be seen as "responsible" for the "spike" that would result from being honest about the numbers.

[ Parent ]
SC-3
I know that this is a more than solid red seat, but its a seven man primary in the GOP and its an interesting race to look into. Thanks.
I contend that NY-23 is more interesting than NY-13
Also, so, about that NYC SSP meetup that I mentioned in the other thread before it got shut down...

...does anyone live in NYC, other than me and the head honchos of this site?  If so, we could meet up sometime.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

NJ Sen 2008
The Republican's recruiting mess was a sight to behold.  General wasn't nearly as fun.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Not the most INTERESTING
But the race that I cut my political teeth on as a volunteer was in 1998 "working" for the Gail Schoettler for Colorado Governor campaign as a phone-banker in high school.  I've seen much closer races since (both those we've won and those we've lost), but that 7,783 vote defeat to Fmr. Governor Owens still seems to sting the hardest.  I'd helped fill in my parents ballots before then (encouraged a vote for Gov. Brown in 1992 in the Dem primaries--my first suggested vote...long before my first real vote (Bradley, then Gore).  We've never had much of a Congressional race in Denver...Schroeder was considered a deity, and, I just wikipedia'd, but I don't remember DeGette's primary win in 1996 (over Tim Sandos) as being as close as it said.  Anyone care to jog my memory?

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
1998 KS-03
Dennis Moore defeats Republican incumbent Vince Snowbarger. It was the subject of a documentary as part of my degree.
Dude! Really?
I interviewed Snowbarger when he ran against Judy Hancock in '96 for the KC Star's Teen Star...and he was nutso. And he did not smell particularly good, for the record.  

But yeah, I was sooo happy to see him go. And Moore's been a pretty darn good Congressman since then...     That is crazy you did that race as a documentary.

What do you think of Raj Goyle (KS-04) & Laura Kelly (KS-02)'s chances, btw? I'm bullish on Kelly and Goyle's a fundraising maniac, so at least there's definitely going to be actual races there...

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Russian presidential election, summer 1996
Close second: Russian parliamentary election, December 1995. Those were the days--you didn't know who was going to win the Russian election ahead of time!

Bonus Russian joke, circa May/June 1996, when Yeltsin was campaigning on promises like ending the war in Chechnya and paying people the wages and pensions they were owed:

At a big rally, Boris Yeltsin tells the crowd, "Elect me and you'll get a brand-new president!"

A voice from the crowd asks, "And what if we don't elect you, Boris Nikolaevich?"

Yeltsin replies, "Then you'll get the same old president."

My best race
I commented just above on my first race, but my best race to watch and be a part of was a State Rep. race in 2002 while at Colorado College.  Admittedly, HD 18 was designed to be as much of a fair-fight district as one could get in Colorado Springs, but the odds seemed monumental.  The CC Greens and Dems, in a coordinated effort, registered 206 incoming Freshmen (we had roughly a 204-2 Democratic registration advantage with those ballots, we think).  Merrifield won by 112 votes.  Now, while we can't assume all our new freshmen voted, the CC Green-Dems gang and I are all convinced we won that seat for him.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
A couple:
IL-Sen 2004: Not just because it launched the career of our 44th President, but also for the complete trainwreck on the Republican side. Jack (or Jim, Joe, Jerry, whatever) Ryan's sexual peccadilloes coming to light causing him to drop out, followed by the Republicans picking the worst possible candidate to replace him -- even worse than Jim Oberweis, and that's saying something.

VA-05 2008: Tom Perriello ran a populist, insurgent campaign against noted racist Virgil Goode, and it looked like it was completely pointless because of an incredibly horrible SUSA poll in August, but on election night it came down to the wire, with Goode appearing to win, then with the last few precincts in Perriello pulled ahead, and the recanvassing switched the leads again before finally giving Perriello the win.

Jack Ryan was seriously charismatic
and it brings up a good what-if, that Jack Ryan stayed married to Jeri.  I don't think he would have beaten Obama, because Illinois was too Democratic, but I think he could have bloodied him up enough that Obama wouldn't have run for President in 2008.

[ Parent ]
Virgil Goode was not a racist..
at least, not in the classic black v. white American sense. He was a xenophobe but a lot of Southside Virginians, black and white alike, often voted for him as he was a local boy one of 'em who did good. Crazy trivia, but did you know he graduated near the top of his class from UVA law? Un-freaking believable!

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  
[ Parent ]
Another piece of Virgil Goode trivia
Author Bret Easton Ellis, of American Psycho fame, contributed to Goode's abortive 1994 Senate campaign (back when he was still a Democrat).

http://www.newsmeat.com/celebr...

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Favorite Ads
Well this makes me think of my favorite campaign ads. And the ones that leap to mind are Russ Feingold's "Home Movies" from 1992 and Mitch McConnell's blood hounds chasing Dee Huddleston from 1984.

As to favorite outcome, it doesn't get much better than the 1994 Senate race in Virginia.

the joys of a community college polisci class
getting to see the Robb/North documentary, but not the ending. So students get to be stunned to hear that Robb beat North.
[ Parent ]
OR-05, 1990
Mike Kopetski defeats Denny Smith. Mostly just because it's the one that I worked the hardest on.

Also, this may be kind of a lame answer, but the 2008 presidential race. Not just because it went through so many amazing twists and turns, but because it ended with the greatest sense of vindication.

All the New Mexico races in 2008
Just watching the Republicans completely implode in New Mexico was funny as hell.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Jim Matheson lol
Someone has changed his Wikipedia entry as revenge for his vote on the health care bill. It used to read:

He is a Democrat, and the only member of his party currently representing Utah at the federal level.

But somebody got rid of the mention about him being a Democrat and added some other language instead about healthcare.

He is an opponent of fixing the health care system, and the only member of his party currently representing Utah at the federal level.

2008 NC U.S. Senate
It was a very exciting race from start to finish. After all of the high-profile Dems turned down the race, no one gave Kay Hagan much of a chance and Dole was still breaking 50% in the polls as late as July. Then we had the hilarious rocking chairs ads from the DSCC in August which really changed the game. Kay Hagan was a great candidate who really excited the Democratic base and ran a well-organized campaign. The polls started to even out and Hagan was leading by October when Dole ran the infamous "Godless" ads, which were criticized nationwide. On election night, Hagan won by over 8 points, the largest margin of victory for a Senate candidate in NC since 1974. All in all, it was a very exciting race that defied most people's early expectations of an easy Dole victory.
Watauga County 2006
Democrats took EVERYTHING in Watauga County

Billy Ralph Winkler won re-election to the County Commission
John Cooper won an open seat suceeding a Republican County Commissioner
Mary Moretz defeated an incumbent to win a seat on the County Commission
L.D. Hagaman defeated the incumbent Sheriff
Steve Goss "the miracle Senator" defeated County Commissioner David Blust in this R+10 district
Cullie Tarleton defeated incumbent Gene Wilson to take an R+3 seat in the State House
Virginia Foxx, while winning the election, lost her home county of Watauga

It was a hell of a night.  

politico says barrett running in WI

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

very good new

Democratic frontrunners must be in :).
[ Parent ]
'92 NY-Sen Democratic Primary
I've brought this one up in another threads, but it's still a juicy one...

The candidates:
Attorney General Robert Abrams
Fmr. Congresswoman and 1984 VP nominee Geraldine Ferraro
Fmr. Congresswoman, Brooklyn DA and NYC Comptroller Elizabeth Holtzman
Rev. Al Sharpton

Up until the final two months of the race, Abrams and Ferraro were consistently in a dead heat (at about 30% a piece) with Holtzman in third (at around 15%) and then Sharpton not even breaking into double-digits.

At one point, however, Ferraro started to pull ahead; if I'm not mistaken, some polls even had her with a double-digit lead over Abrams. Her surge stopped, however, after the Village Voice published an article accusing Ferraro's husband of taking $300,000 in rent from a pornographer with ties to organized crime. The Holtzman camp jumped on the article, and started running a barrage of negative ads, one of which tied Ferraro herself to organized crime. While Holtzman ran up her own negatives, she also ran up Ferraro's, and by election night, Abrams had a slight lead in the polls.

On election night, Abrams edged out Ferraro by all of 1%. In a great irony, exit polls showed that women favored Abrams, while men sided with Ferraro. Holtzman's negatives were so high that Sharpton managed to edge her out for 3rd place.

In the weeks following election night, Ferraro and Holtzman opted not to endorse Abrams; Ferraro didn't even concede the race until two weeks prior to the general. Much of Ferraro's support in the Primary was from moderate and conservative Upstate Dems, and a lot of them wound up moving to Al D'Amato for the general. D'Amato obviously did defeat Abrams in the general, albeit by a small 2% margin.

The following year, Ferraro decided to get her revenge on Holtzman by encouraging Alan Hevesi to challenge Holtzman in the Comptroller Primary. Hevesi and Holtzman virtually tied in the first vote, but in the run-off, Hevesi beat Holtzman by a 2-to-1 margin. Ferraro got her wish, and Holtzman's political career effectively died.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

In Chuck Schumer's book
He said that the divisiveness of the '92 primary was a main reason why he worked to obtain the endorsements of Ferraro and Mark Green almost immediately after he won the primary in 1998.
[ Parent ]
We were Mrazek supporters
until he dropped out...he was our Congressman (although I was living in London at the time) and was a family friend. My mother was very involved in his election in 1982 when redistricting but our home in John LeBoutillier's district. My mother saw the need to get rid of the guy, and we did.

Mrazek was a good family friend. In 1992 we got moved to George Hockenbreuckner's district, who was also a good friend.

[ Parent ]
Paul Wellstone 1990
I volunteered on this one because I saw him speak at a small gathering and I was blown away by his passion, his positions, his warmth, and his sense of humor.  Also because I had very little money and worked across the street from the campaign office.

We were gigantic underdogs the whole way through.  Bill Hillsman's ads were absolutely brilliant and the weirdness of Boschwitz's "jewish letter" in the closing weeks put a nice topper on the thing.  Well, actually, cheering "SENATOR WELLSTONE, SENATOR WELLSTONE" - hardly believing my mouth, at my first DFL victory party was a nice topper.

One of my favorite
VA-Sen 2006.  George Allen went from the favorite for the GOP nomination for President to a former senator in a matter of six months.  
My personal fave
PA-17, 2002, Tim Holden (D) v. George Gekas (R).  I wrote a very lengthy paper on it a couple of years ago - given the then-new 17th district's composition (largely anchored in an area Gekas had represented for two decades), Holden's victory was by far the biggest upset of the year, and by many estimates one of most surprising in recent memory. Moreover, it was the one failed outcome of the GOP-controlled legislature's redistricting plan, which consolidated territory in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia such that, respectively, Reps. Bill Coyne (D) and Bob Borski (D) were forced into retirement, and Rep. Frank Mascara (D) was forced into an unwinnable primary against Jack Murtha in the southwest. The 17th district race was supposed to have a similarly preordained outcome, but Gekas's rustiness on the campaign trail, combined with Holden's Blue Dog, working class profile, conspired to throw a fatal kink into the grand GOP scheme.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
I remember that
Holden went into Harrisburg, found out Gekas hadn't been there in years and was able to pull off a big win in Dauphin County.  
[ Parent ]
Although in retrospect
it looks predictable how Dauphin is moving to the Dems.  

Holden actually lost Dauphin County 56-44, while six years later Obama won it by 9.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20...

OTOH, Holden won huge in his base in Schuylkill (72-28) and Berks (57-43) areas which the state and national Democrats usually get beat.  (Obama got 45% in Schuylkill and 46% in the PA-17 part of Berks.)  Even in the huge Dem landslides of 2006, Rendell won Schuylkill with 56% and probably won the PA-17 part of Berks narrowly.  Casey got 54% in Schuylkill and probably lost the PA-17 part of Berks narrowly.  

[ Parent ]
For me, CA-11 circa 2006.
Due to California's districts being highly gerrymandered, very few people expected "Dirty Dick" Pombo to be unseated in the Republican-leaning district. I was one of the very few that knew Pombo was vulnerable early on, not just because of environmental issues, but also because of the Democratic trend of the district and Abramoff issues. And McNerney's win was sweet, because he pulled it off without much help from the DCCC, just environmental PACs.

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Ralph Nader for CT Senate
He won't run. But would Nader get an apartment in Connecticut to go along with his Washington DC apartment? Although, with Dodd running, Nader wouldn't be the left-of-center guy causing the Democrats the most damage in that race.
We need polls for VT-Gov, CT-Gov and MN-Gov

For these races we have not still valid references between democrats and republicans. I think they can be favourable races for democrats.

I wish know new polls for these races.

The problem
is that none of those races have a set field yet. Rell's retirement is so recent that the field has yet to take shape on both sides, and in both MN and VT, the Democratic primary field is about 300 candidates wide and growing. I'm sure we'll start seeing some polling from these races once anyone actually knows who the candidates likely to make it to the general are going to be.  
[ Parent ]
Just these are the reasons for find new polls

Without first polls no-one of these 300 candidates will out the race.

Allways we have candidates what can be interesting in polls. They are very much candidates but is so easy find theorical frontrunners for give necessary references. For example:

VT-Gov:
D Racine (D) vs B Dubie (R)
D Racine (D) vs T Salmon (R)
D Markowitz (D) vs B Dubie (R)
D Markowitz (D) vs T Salmon (R)

MN-Gov:
M Dayton (D) vs N Coleman (R)
M Dayton (D) vs P Anderson (R)
RT Rybak (D) vs N Coleman (R)
RT Rybak (D) vs P Anderson (R)

CT-Gov
S Bysiewicz (D) vs R Simmons (R)
S Bysiewicz (D) vs M Fedele (R)
S Bysiewicz (D) vs J McKinney (R)
N Lamont (D) vs R Simmons (R)
N Lamont (D) vs M Fedele (R)
N Lamont (D) vs J McKinney (R)

[ Parent ]
Here's Some You Forgot to Mention,
VT-Gov:
J Spaulding (D) vs B Dubie (R)
J Spaulding (D) vs T Salmon (R)
J Spaulding (D) vs W Freed (R)
P Welch (D) vs B Dubie (R)
P Welch (D) vs T Salmon (R)
P Welch (D) vs W Freed (R)
P Shumlin (D) vs B Dubie (R)
P Shumlin (D) vs T Salmon (R)
P Shumlin (D) vs W Freed (R)

MN-Gov:
M Entenza (D) vs N Coleman (R)
M Entenza (D) vs P Anderson (R)
M Entenza (D) vs M Seifert (R)

CT-Gov
J Amann (D) vs R Simmons (R)
J Amann (D) vs M Fedele (R)
J Amann (D) vs J McKinney (R)
J Amann (D) vs L Cafero (R)

50, straight white male, Democrat(Dan Boren/Gene Taylor 2012!), AL-7(born in AL-5)

[ Parent ]
Welch?
Has he shown any interest in the governor's race?

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)
[ Parent ]
Nope
Also, Salmon said he wouldn't run if Dubie did. It's unlikely that Dubie will have any real primary competition.

The best Democrats to poll would be Racine, Markowitz, Dunne, and Pollina, who said he might run again, but if he did it would be as a Dem.

[ Parent ]
Didn't Shumlin announce a little while back?
Seems like he would have a better chance in a primary than Racine or Markowitz.

Pollina would be interesting, though. The Progressives would probably endorse him right away, and try to GOTV in the Dem primary. I think that the front-runner for LG (can't remember his name) is also planning to run as a Progressive-Democrat, so 2010 could end up being a very good year for uniting the two parties.

Some Dude, 19, Democrat, NH-02 (residence), MA-08 (college)

[ Parent ]
actually he's announcing in about a week
and i agree he'd be the best in the race.  he has the experience in state government markowitz lacks, isn't as bad a retread as racine who lost the govt race in 2002 to douglas, and could keep the progs appeased.  they want vt yankee (the poorly run nuke plant) torn down, single payer and one other thing i can't remember.  shumlin has cred on both single payer and yankee.  

one interesting note is that markowitz is the only one who hasn't faced dubie in a race before (not counting bartlett who isn't long for the race).  dubie ran against dunne in the 06 lt gov race, racine in 2000 lt gov race (2 years before running for gov) and shumlin in the 2002 lt governor race.  

i see this race being like the SD republican gubernatorial primary back in 2002 between lt kirby (racine) attorney general mark barnett (markowitz) and Mike Rounds (Shumlin).  racine and markowitz will probably destroy themselves by trying to destory each other, giving shumlin a chance to sneak through.  dunne and pollina are the only wild cards

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
oh and the prog you're thinking of is david zuckerman
met him at democracyfest.  he has long thick dreads put in a ponytail down to his butt.  he'll have to clean up for a statewide run.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
welch is looking towards senority in the house
barring a death of leahy or bernie (which hopefully won't happen for decades to come) welch's earliest chance at a senate seat would be in 2016, when he's 68.  while some (mike castle) legitimate candidates run for freshman senate terms that old, very few do.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
No need to test Salmon
He was only running if Dubie did not.  
[ Parent ]
Here's why you test Salmon
If Salmon does much better than Dubie, there may be pressure from the Vermont GOP for Dubie to run for reelection and Salmon to be the nominee.
[ Parent ]
unlikely.
governor is a whole lot more important than lt governor.  if a dem wins in 2010, barring a scandal or economic collapse dems will hold the seat for years.  this is the VT-GOP's ONE chance at the governship for about a decade.  it's a risk, but it's the only chance they have.  besides, dubie doesn't seem that interested in politics considering how long it took him to make a decision, he won't want to run years from now.  he already said it's up or out.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Races?!
  Screw that!  I am off to eat babka.

24, Male, GA-05
Favorite, because of the outcome...
MN-Sen, 2008, getting to finally see Al Franken become a U.S. Senator.  He's one of the few truly good guys we have in Congress now.


But if you want interesting... well, May 2009 had a trio of interesting races for those of us in Southern California.

In a pleasant race, May 2009's election for Los Angeles City Council, a runoff between Paul Koretz and David Vahedi.  Two very likable guys, who were longtime friends themselves.  Bruin Democrats attended a few of their debates, where it seemed like they kept trying to out-progressive the other one.  As he helped found our club at UCLA in the 1970s, Bruin Dems did endorse Koretz.  It was portrayed as an insider-outsider race, as Koretz had served in the California State Assembly, founded the city of West Hollywood, and done numerous other things, while Vahedi was the relative newcomer.  Koretz edged Vahedi in the runoff by less than 800 votes, and it was one of those rare races where you really didn't want either person to lose.  And yet for such positive candidates, mailers sent on their behalf were pretty vicious towards the other person.

Interestingly, four years earlier, Bruin Dems endorsed Vahedi for the same city council seat, mainly because he was running against incumbent Jack Weiss, who was not exactly well-liked (people tried to recall him in 2007).  And yet Bruin Dems this past May also endorsed Weiss, partly because he was running for City Attorney against Carmen Trutanich (known sarcastically to us as USC football's personal lawyer).  The runoff showed just how disliked Weiss was in L.A., as he lost handily to Trutanich, who is now going after medicinal marijuana stores, so the potsmokers who sat the race out have only themselves to blame, heh.


The other election we focused on in May was the special election primary in CA-32 to replace Hilda Solis.  In a move that caused some drama, Bruin Dems decided to endorse Gil Cedillo for the seat, mainly because of his work on the DREAM Act, and for being a UCLA grad.  Except... Judy Chu was ALSO a UCLA grad, and some alumni felt the club should've remained neutral.  It got even more awkward when the California Democratic Party officially endorsed Chu, while the Los Angeles County Young Democrats endorsed Cedillo.

And then Cedillo went negative.  I mean, really negative.  So negative, in fact, that Calitics decided to endorse anyone but Cedillo to teach his campaign a lesson.  Turns out his campaign manager was the same guy who ran Laura Richardson's race-baiting campaign in CA-37 2 years earlier.  (Though he also ran Darcy Burner's campaign in WA-08.)  His negative race-baiting crap turned some in Bruin Dems who had been enthusiastically backing him, against him.  Fortunately, he was not rewarded with a victory, and Judy Chu is now the awesome Congresswoman from CA-32.  Oh, and in the general election, Judy faced off against Betty Chu, a cousin by marriage, and the two women did not exactly like each other.  So all in all, a pretty drama-filled special election race!

Good ones!
   I also live in the "Fightin' Fifth" and also liked both candidates in the runoff but went with Koretz. I supported Vahedi when he ran against Weiss because Weiss was not a very good councilmember (to put it mildly) and not responsive to the district. I tried to hold my nose and vote for Jack Weiss in the City Attorney race, but I just couldn't do it and so wrote in "Flying Spaghetti Monster". I knew that Trutanich wouldn't be good enough to vote for so I had to go for None of the Above.

   Yeah that CA-32 race was interesting and the final result heartening. Cedillo's campaign was based on the idea of a majority Latino district must be represented by a Latino. Chu was the better candidate with the better campaign and so she won.  Interesting was also the last time that district changed hands, though not with an ethnic rivalry component. It used to have a backbencher do-nothing congresscritter named Marty Martinez. He was too conservative for the district but kept winning because of the partisan lean of the area. Back in 2000 he was challenged in the primary by an ambitious State Senator named Hilda Solis. She ran on a progressive and activist platform and not only won the race but demolished Martinez, 62% to 29%. Martinez was so angered by all this that he switched to the GOP for the last several months of his lame duck term.  Hilda Solis rocks!

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28

[ Parent ]
I love Solis too!
I got to chat with her on FireDogLake in June 07, and she makes an awesome Labor Secretary.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Folks here will love the
John Perzel corruption story.

For those not following the story, Perzel was the Republican Speaker of the PA House, and he was about as obsessed with election data and map drawing as we are. My favorite highlight from grand jury testimony:

When Republicans lost control of the state House by the barest of margins in 2006, Perzel believed bad voter data from his contracted computer firms had undermined the GOP effort.

He went to New Orleans to confront executives of GCR & Associates, bringing his wife, son and five aides. Taxpayers covered the travel costs of everyone but Perzel's family.

The designer state House district he constructed for himself after winning by 200 votes in 2000 (PDF).  

Delicious
See my above post on Tim Holden for why we should take extra pleasure in this : )

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
I know the Holden/Gekas story
I think if you read between the lines of the election coverage from 2002, you see that they two actually liked one-another fairly well, and that Gekas believed he was going to lose.

[ Parent ]
LA-05 runoff in 2004
Democrat (later turned Republican) Rodney Alexander pulled out a thrilling win against Republican Lee Fletcher, even though Republicans had won a combined 70% of the vote in the jungle primary.  Basically, Fletcher's two Republican opponents and the sitting Congressman torpedoed his campaign heading into the runoff in revenge for a nasty primary campaign.  I was up late watching election returns with my friend and was shocked to find that the Dem was actually winning!

That was one of two absolutely shocking Congressional runoff elections in this decade.  The other one was Ciro Rodriguez's victory over Henry Bonilla in TX-23 in 2006, which ended the career of the brightest Hispanic-American star in the Republican Party.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

That was 2002
There were two runoffs in 2004, though: Charles Boustany in the 7th and Charlie Melancon in the 3rd. Melancon's victory was pretty similar, though -- the Republicans got 59% total in that election, but Billy Tauzin's campaign (supported by the state party) railroaded Craig Romero out of the runoff, so Romero declined to endorse Tauzin.
[ Parent ]
You're right
I got the cycle wrong.  My memory, though, is that Alexander's district is much more Republican than Melancon's, so it was an even more impressive win.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
You could argue
that the Dems lost LA-07 because of a fu**ed-up primary as well. I remember that the two Dem candidates had well of 50%, but the defeated candidate refused to endorse the candidate who advanced into the primary so Boustany got elected rather easily...

33, living in Germany  
[ Parent ]
TX-23 was fun
It was icing on the cake really.  After 29 pickups on November 2006 I really didn't expect Ciro to pull it out in the December run-off.  Even SurveyUSA's final poll just days before the election had Bonilla up something like 6-8 points.  Everyone seems sure Ciro would blow yet another race.  But much higher than expected turnout among Democrats pushed Ciro to a surprisingly easy high single digit win.
[ Parent ]
I'll bite: Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 1994
The first race that I really followed the ins and outs of (and one that bears a squinting resemblence to the NJ 2009 gubernatorial election).

Maryland is obviously a very Democratic state, but there's a geographic divide between the Dems in Baltimore and its suburbs and those in the DC suburbs (primarily Prince George's and Montgomery). Parris Glendening was the P.G. county executive and not well liked statewide, and he got along terribly with Willy Don Schaefer, the Democratic governor he was seeking to succeed and an absolute titan of Baltimore politics. (Schaefer is a conservadem along the lines of Ed Koch, and endorsed Bush in 1992.) Glendening was running against statehouse minority leader Ellen Sauerbrey, who represented white-flight Baltimore County.

Glendening wasn't much of a politician, but he tapped Annapolis resident and former assistant state's attourney Katheleen Kennedy Townsend as his running mate. With Kennedy money available, he absolutely hammered Sauerbrey -- who was running in the Gingrich revolution year as a firebreathing conservative tax-cutter -- on choice, splitting off enough suburban women to win a squeaker (less than six thousand votes). Sauerbrey immediately filed a lawsuit claiming vote fraud, which she lost, and the "Ellen Sour Grapes" tag clung to her in her rematch with the unpopular Glendening in 1998. (She dropped out of politics after that, resurfacing as the refugee administrator at the State Department under GWB, despite having no expertise in the subject.)

Glendening's running mate, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, would go on to mount the worst campaign I've ever personally witnessed, losing to Bob Ehrlich in a state that gave 56% of its vote to Gore and 3% to Nader.

Oh yeah
That's one of the first non-presidential political races I have any memories of. (The other was when Wayne Gilchrest first ran for Congress in 1990, when there were Gilchrest signs all over the Eastern Shore.) My politically-savvy 12-year-old self supported Glendenning because his ads said that Ellen Sauerbrey lied about him.

A couple years ago I heard a story on NPR that referenced Ellen Sauerbrey in her State Department role; I think my reaction to the radio was something along the lines of "Wait, WHAT?!" I guess I shouldn't be too surprised; I believe she headed the Bush campaign in Maryland in 2000 or 2004.

[ Parent ]
NY-20, 2006: That was pretty awesome
Kirstin Gillibrand (D) vs. incumbent John Sweeney (R).

The pics of Sweeney showing up drinking at the college frat party were pretty iconic to me. I was pretty happy when Gillibrand won that one (and probably the only one here who had her as their first choice to be the next Senator from New York, go me!).

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

The Domestic Violence caucus
John Sweeney, Don Sherwood, and Shotgun Randy Kuhl.  Dems hold all of their seats now.  Sweet victories, those.

The pedophile caucus though we haven't done as well with.  Mark Foley's seat and Tom Reynolds' seat (a pedophile defender rather than an actual pedophile) are now held by Republicans.  Crazy Jack Davis and that douchebag Tim Mahoney fucked up those two seats.

How did we do with the Abramoff seats?  We hold Ney and Hastert.  They hold DeLay and Cunningham (not exactly an Abramoff seat, but wtvr).  They hold Doolittle.  We hold Pombo.  We hold Feeney.  They still hold Jerry Lewis and Duncan Hunter (again, not an Abramoff scandal but wtvr).  So a pretty mixed record there.  Still, Zach Space, Bill Foster, Jerry McNerney, and Suzanne Kosmas ought to send Abramoff some flowers to brighten his jail cell.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
I have returned
After several months off I decided to come back.  It was nothing against SSP, I just needed a break.  A few thoughts from my time off the blogs:

1. Get health care reform passed ASAP.  I hate to invoke 1994 since the political landscape today is so different, but failing to pass this bill will almost certainly depress democratic turnout in 2010 to near record lows.  Oddly enough the very people (Blue Dogs and other moderate Dems) who stand in the way of reform have the most to lose should it fail.  They will account for most of the Dem losses in 2010, not progressives.

2. My Congresswoman is a nitwit.  Yes, I strongly supported Rep. Kosmas in 2010, but she badly disappointed me with her health care vote.  I challenge anyone to explain how voting down healh care reform will improve their re-election chances in 2010.  All it does is depress base turnout.  My guess is she will vote for final passage on the bill, as will a good number of other Dems who opposed the current house bill.  The final bill is likely to be more moderate which should attract more moderate Dem support.

3. I'm shocked that my state seems to be the next stop on the teabagger express.  I always thought Rubio had potential to be a formidable primary challenge for Crist, but I've now come to the conclusion that Rubio is now the favorite.  Too bad our recruiting sucked so bad for the Senate race.  It's very doubtful that Meek can beat even Rubio in a general election.

4. Teabaggers and the rabid right are a good thing.  They have the potential to "Scozzofava" countless republicans in 2010 either as primary opponents or third party candidates.  This has the potential to offset dissatisfaction with democrats running for re-election.

One more thing
I had an interesting vacation.  Went on a one week trip to Springfield, MO to visit family I've not seen in years.  I took the scenic route by driving.  It was a long 18 hour drive but well worth it to see parts of the south I've not seen since childhood.  

It brought a nice smile to my face when I was driving through northern Mississippi and saw several Childers For Congress signs.  I donated quite a bit to him when he ran and won his surprise special election upset.

Springfield as many know is homw to the Blunt family.  Naturally I expected most people, family included, to be supports to them.  Surprisingly almost everyone I talked to despise Roy Blunt and his son who was their former Governor.  I left having the feeling that Roy Blunt's chances even in a good republican year are not very good.

A family member did a geneology project for me.  I was shocked to learn how far back my family's roots in America go.  My maternal grandfather's side of the family only immigrated to Nebraska (later southern MO) from Germany in the 1850's, but my maternal grandmother's side dates back to North Carolina as far back as the 1600's with an ancestor who fought in the American Revolution.

[ Parent ]
My mom is a professional geneologist.
And I got to see how interesting my family history is, which also includes a Revolution participant. My maternal grandparents immigrated to New York from Russia (grandmother) and Armenia (grandfather) at the turn of the 20th century. My paternal grandfather's ancestors were Scots who migrated to Ireland and then after the potato famine in the early 1800s settled in I think Virginia. My paternal grandmother's family's time in America, specifically Virginia, also dates from the 1600s and my fifth-great grandfather was a Minuteman and fought in Washington's Army. Thanks to him, I can be a member of Daughters of the American Revolution!

My boyfriend also has a very colorful family history, with his paternal grandparents' and maternal grandfathers' families coming from Portugal and having been settled in what is now Brazil since the 1500s after Pedro Álvares Cabral's discovery and miscegnated with the native Brazilians and the African slaves. His maternal grandmother's family immigrated to Brazil from Portugal and Italy much later, also around the early 20th century.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

[ Parent ]
The Civil War
It's always been a major interest of mine.  That era fascinates me more than any other in American history.  I was really hoping I had relatives who were involved in the war.  Ironically most of my family in the 1860's lived in northern Kentucky (maternal side) and southern Missouri (paternal side).  Of course both areas were among the few places in the country where noone wanted to choose a side, thus noone in my family was involved in the war.  
[ Parent ]
My paternal grandparents
had moved to Texas sometime before the Civil War, though they probably didn't choose a side either, and I have no ancestors who fought in that war.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Correction: Paternal grandparents' ancestors moved to TX.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Civil War
A relative of 3rd Great Grandma who emigrated from Ireland (we are not sure if he is a cousin, uncle or brother but there is about a 75% chance he is her cousin) fought in the Civil War (Union side, he was in New York.) He died in it though, ironically in a small battle that the Union won in 1864. It reminds me a bit of All Quiet on the Western Front where the protagonist dies and the newspaper says on the day he dies, "Nothing much happened today in the war."

Basically, my entire family are immigrants to New York City from about 1850 to 1910 except for a tiny line in Philadelphia.  

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Civil War
StudyoftheCivilWar@yahoogroups.com

has a relatively civil discussion group about the civil war. Several of the participants are teachers or writers on the subject

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
Funny thing
Part of the reason I went to Missouri was for my grandmother's (she passed away early this year at 85) funereal service.  I received my geneological history the day before the service.  To my surprise relatively small graveyard (about 200 or so plots) in rural southern Missouri was made up almost entirely of family ancestors.

As far as my descendent who fought in the American revolution goes, he joined the North Carolina volunteers fairly late in the war (around 1779) at about 16 or 17 years old.  His first and only major battle was the final battle of the war - Yorktown.

[ Parent ]
I have
information on my 5th-great grandfather's service from my DAR application packet. My 5th-great grandfather enlisted in 1778 under Col. Meriwether's 4th Regiment Virginia Line, General Sumter's Brigade. After serving for 2 years, he furloughed early in 1780 and returned to his Virginia home, though was considered a minute-man and could be summoned to service within a minute's notice, which happened in February 1781. He served in Captain Woodruff's VA Co., part of Washington's army also at the siege of Yorktown and surrender of Cornwallis.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Correction: Maternal grandparents' ancestors immigrated here.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
1. Some progressives will lose
Some for supporting health care. I agree about 1994 but to some extent there are similarities and one is the very real possibility of people inoculating themselves from attacks in unfriendly districts. Hardcore Repubs are never going to vote for any Democrat but this strategy is all about independents, moderate Dems and reasonable Republicans and it has a history of working - ten Democrats in districts that had supported Bush in 1992 survived 1994 because they voted against both the budget and the assualt weapons ban. Conversely it is also true that doing so can hurt turnout in the base. As always it is a very fine needle to thread.
[ Parent ]
The only ones I can see losing
for supporting health care right now are Tom Perriello, John Spratt, and Vic Snyder.  The rest of the Dems who supported health care reform boosted their chances assuming that a bill is finally signed into law.  Not to say that others who supported the bill won't lose, but they would have lost worse had they voted no.

I fear that Tom Perriello signed his political death certificate by voting for health care reform.  But I sent him $150 for his courage and hopefully I can eat the words I wrote here a year from now.

[ Parent ]
I'd add
Marion Berry to that list too.  
[ Parent ]
Probably true
but of my list of 31, Berry would be in the bottom five in vulnerability.

In short, his vote for the bill hurts him, but since he is utterly safe, it really doesn't matter.

[ Parent ]
2. Agree final bill will get more votes
But it will lose some on the left. I don't expect many more total than first time around.

3. I wouldn't quite favor Rubio just yet but he is in with a great chance no question.

4. Teabaggers are great if they make Repubs nominate them or run third-party and siphon votes in the general but the worry is some actually get elected. Some will no doubt but in general I agree it is probably a net-plus for Democrats.

[ Parent ]
Yes
If the teabagger candidates run in repub primaries in 2010 I imagine a good many will win given the environment.  But come 2012 best of luck to them getting re-elected with Obama on the ballot and the effect redistricting which could oust many of them.  Crazy can win in the short-term but not in the long-term.
[ Parent ]
Rubio could be elected in 2010
and then 2014 would hopefully be mid-term through 2nd Obama term, which is the notoriously bad one for whoever is not the party in power.  That gives Rubio a great shot at re-election and after two-terms, they are usually too entrenched by that time.  (with obvious exceptions)
[ Parent ]
Are you aware that Senators serve 6-year terms?
So your scenario is impossible.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
BAH!!!!!
I can name all of them but cant tell when they are re-elected!

2016 could be promising then.

[ Parent ]
Also
I have a feeling that Pelosi had a good number more votes than the slim 220 who voted in favor.  I'll bet quite a few were given permission to vote down this initial bill to "appear" moderate to their districts.  The true number of supports was probably around 230'ish, most of whom would vote for what will be a more moderate final bill.
[ Parent ]
Probably
but near the top of that list should have been Tom Perriello.  He voted for both cap-and-trade and health care reform.  There are Dems who are much less vulnerable who voted no on one or both.
[ Parent ]
Strikes me he did what he thought was right whatever
As he said he isn't there to get re-elected. Would be nice if he managed it though.
[ Parent ]
I'm sure he was urged
Not only was he probably given permission to vote nay I'll bet Pelosi and Co. begged him to vote against cap and trade and health care for electoral reasons.  It seems like Periello is one of those rare (gasp!) democrats with principles.  His kind are great for the country but generally bad at getting re-elected.
[ Parent ]
The thing about Tom Periello is that
he actually cares about whats in peoples' best interest not what is considered politically correct in his district. If he looses re-election, hopefully he will run for governor in 2013. I hope he does get re-elected though, he is one of the good guys in congress.
[ Parent ]
according to Clyburn
They had 212 votes without Stupak, and Stupak's amendment delivered 10 votes. So that would suggest she only had a handful of votes to "release."
[ Parent ]
she released at least four that I know of
Scott Murphy, Frank Kratovil, John Boccieri and Glenn Nye...vulnerable freshmen who had some personal issue with the bill.  
[ Parent ]
oh and a reporter friend of mine on the hill for ABC
polled to find out who the 10 were who voted for the bill for Stupak...he knows of three; Stupak himself, Brad Ellsworth of Indiana and Marcy Kaptur of Ohio.  
[ Parent ]
Kaptur
Yeah, yeah...I know Kaptur is Catholic and is her district is also heavily so, but I can't seriously see her complaining about the bill except from on the left.  She's no purist like her eastern Congressional neighbor, but she's a true left-populist.  I just don't see it.  Ellsworth and Stupak himself...sure.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
she is on abortion
she's seriously rabidly pro-life.  
[ Parent ]
Rabidly?
Pro-life I don't doubt, but she seems like a quiet sort about it.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
She was staunchly against stem-cell research
which would've flied in her district. This is who she is. Like I always say, the problem with Democrats is there are those who are very liberal on one issue tend to be very conservative on another one.

Bart Stupak might be a jerk on abortion rights, but you won't want to replace him with a Republican on environmental issues. Even Joe Lieberman sides with the Democrats on social issues...for now anyway.  

[ Parent ]
It is unclear what to do with Kaptur
I really dislike her anti-choice stance, especially in what is a safe Dem district, but the problem is that Kaptur is so damn good on other issues, that someone who successfully primaries her on the choice issue may be significantly less pro-worker/pro-consumer and more pro-business than Kaptur.

And for me, that is not a trade that is acceptable.  

[ Parent ]
It's important to realize
even Dennis Kucinich was staunchly pro-life before he decided to run for President.

Kucinich would have voted for the Stupak amendment circa 2000.  

[ Parent ]
I think his wife played a part
I believe I read somewhere that his wife who he married several years ago convinced him to become pro-choice.  Then again his wife is really hot so it's not surprising she's so convincing...
[ Parent ]
I think there's a very different reason
Kucinich chose to run for President.
[ Parent ]
I know that
but I would have no problem in getting rid of purity troll Kucinich today.  He's not much better than the worst of the Blue Dogs in his voting record.
[ Parent ]
Oh I agree
I think the guy just has a massive ego.  He tries to act like he's 100% purist, but when he represented a swing district he voted like a moderate.  He's a massive fraud and votes down any bill that's not 100% liberal.
[ Parent ]
On abortion we're screwed
As was evident on the ridiculous Stupak amendment there are a good three dozen or so staunchly anti-choice Democrats.  I can tolerate those who hail from the south and other right-leaning districts, but the fact that so many are from solid blue districts is very annoying.  
[ Parent ]
The best thing about Kosmas
is that she's not Tom Feeney. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if she's one of the freshman Dems who loses in 2010. From where I'm sitting (about 1,000 miles away from your district, so not as informed as I maybe could be), Kosmas really seems to be all over the map with her message and just coming across as the sort of indecisive, spineless liberal that most people on both sides of the political divide love to hate. Everyone knows that Southern Democrats in Republican-leaning districts are likely to vote based on political convenience, but some do it better than others, and Kosmas really seems to be stumbling. For better or for worse, at least you probably won't have her for very long - either she loses in 2010, or she wins narrowly and the FL GOP, seeing an easy mark, redistricts her neighborhood into a strong GOP district and puts you in FL-08 - assuming, of course, that the GOP continues to leave Grayson alone and that he doesn't somehow lose in 2010 anyway. Well, we can dream, can't we?

Also, from a drive-by sometimes-commenter who's been lurking around this corner of the tubes for far too long and actually knows who you are, welcome back.

[ Parent ]
They probably won't control the process
Alex Sink will probably win the Governorship and force a compromise map in 2012.  I'd be very surprised if McCollum wins next year.  A compromse map would probably secure both Grayson and Kosmas.

If the GOP did manage to control the process in 2012 there is little they could do to hurt Dems more than the current map.  

As for 2010 I think Kosmas and Grayson both survive.  I've seen no public data but have a gut feeling the reason all those top-tier GOP candidates are staying away from challenging Grayson is that internal data says he's quite popular at home for his withering attacks on he GOP.  

As far as my own district goes I think Hukill would have been the best candidate for the GOP to run against Kosmas.  Hukill is my current state rep (same district Kosmas represented in the state house).  She's well liked and lives in Volusia like Kosmas does.  Thankfully she decided to pass on the race.

[ Parent ]
Nice to see you back, Chad
and thanks for your thoughts.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
NY-13
Not that it wasn't mostly funny, but I would say the part where the guy died was not more entertaining than the previous week.
Congressional dreams
Last night, I had a dream that CSPAN had become like the Home Shopping Network. Members of Congress were on TV selling different items. The only one I remember was Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), who was selling vacuum seal storage bags for clothes as well as several skin care products. It was really bizarre, especially considering the fact that there was no TV/radio on in the background, which might have explained it otherwise. I had had a dream with Rep. Alan Mollohan in it the night before, so I'm waiting to see which random member of Congress will be in my dreams tonight.

Has anyone else ever had a dream that featured a political figure in it, especially someone not most people outside of SSP would know?  

Haha
The fact that you had a dream about CSPAN to begin with speaks volumes.  Most people wouldn't watch CSPAN awake if they were paid to.
[ Parent ]
That is epic
He's a bit more well-known, but I once had a dream in which I was driving in a car with Mark Penn, telling him - without a hint of sarcasm - that he was one of the greatest political strategists of our time, no matter what anyone else said.

Odd, as this is most decidedly not my actual opinion.

Also, I had a dream in which I was elected to the Maine House of Representatives (I'm not a Maine resident) from the 174th legislative district (doesn't actually exist) without campaigning, solely because no other candidate had filed. It... was... AWESOME.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
OH!
I also forgot about the one with Norm Coleman at the sock hop...

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
might want to check the food you're eating
just sayin ;)
[ Parent ]
Once
I dreamed I was racing Arlen Specter (back when he was a Republican).  The guy seemed really fast for his age too, but then again a lot of my dreams feature me trying to run but I'm barely even moving, so maybe his speed was exaggerated.  I don't know.  Such are dreams.
[ Parent ]
Indeed.
Back in early '06 I had a dream I was surrounded by TVs showing results on Election Night and Democrats were winning every competitive governor election, including Alaska, California, and Florida.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Just spent a week in NV - ref Harry Reid
Of course, didn't spend a lot of time watching TV - but it seemed like Harry Reid commercials were ubiquitous - bio spots

as if he were introducing himself to NV voters all over again.

Bart Peterson lost in 2006
Not my favorite race.

Tom Suozzi is now trailing by 500 votes.

The two defeats are similar.

Favorite race
Twinkle, Twinkle, Kenneth Starr

Published Thursday, November 5, 1998 in the New York Times:

In the end, the upset in New Jersey's 12th Congressional District yesterday may have come down to a piece of doggerel, sung on the floor of the House of Representatives by Michael Pappas, the district's conservative Republican incumbent.

It was the recording of Mr. Pappas singing the praises -- literally -- of Kenneth Starr, the Whitewater independent counsel, that the Democratic candidate, Rush Holt, used in a campaign advertisement that was broadcast over and over in the final weeks of the campaign.

And what a hilarious ad it was!

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

MN-Sen 08 obviously
Started as one of the first batches of interns, and then decided I thought Franken was a shit candidate and that Minnesota DFLers could offer up better.  I wrote a blog post slamming Franken and saying I was a former intern, which was then found and posted on the front page of Minnesota Democrats Exposed.  It was really cool seeing my opinions affect a race and become so well known, this one girl I met and I bonded over her reading that post and thinking what I was thinking, dont we have someone with a lot less baggage who we know can win?

Yada yada yada, I bitch and moan about Franken all the time on this blog for the next year or so, I went to my first caucus experience caucusing for Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, who was one of my college profs and that was really cool to be a part of.

Then Franken steamrolled with the delegates and got the nomination on the first ballot and alas, I was bound to him as my nominee and had to stop bad mouthing him.

I did plenty of Obama campaigning, threw in to vote Franken obviously as well.  Got to meet him a number of times, almost got to walk Franken around campus on E-Day but RT Rybak showed up instead, which was fine by me too!  (That guy is a serious campaigner, he has no qualms with walking right up to someone and be up in their face, in a good political way.)  

And then came the election night.  I think I was at the DFL party til like 2am or so and I was definitely nowhere near the realm of sober so I really dont remember what was all going on with Franken save for, hey all, see ya tomorrow because this thing is 700 votes.

I went to South Africa in January for studying abroad and had to get all my news from political blogs, being ecstatic when the recount got Franken the win.  But then I realized there were 4 more months of ballot disputes to go over.  I finally got my 2nd Senator in July and certainly had myself some wine that night.  I had been personally and emotionally involved in that race for over two years and it was finally over!  When Norm conceded, what a celebratory day.

Now my biggest surprise is that while I thought he was a terrible candidate (still do and I stand by everything I said previously and I take great comfort in having met several liberal Democratic voting college students who felt the same way), he is definitely in my top 5 fave Senators, probably is number 1 on the list as he's my Senator.  He's already got a high-profile amendment prohibiting the US from contracting with companies who have the "rape clause" and also has his first bill passed, which was attached to the Defense Bill as well and would establish a program for vets to have service dogs for some company and to have a pal while recovering.  His Sotomayor speech was spectacular, accusing Alito, Thomas, Roberts, and Scalia of being activist judges.  He puts in the leg work and is mouthy in all the right ways.

Quite the journey!

GA-12: DINO Barrow may have/already has a primary challenger
Either Regina Thomas has already announced another run or she's damn near in.  Regardless, may Barrow's duplicity and conservatism end his political career.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
This seat will go back to the republicans again
Republicans will finish what they started in their mid decade redistricting and further dilute away Democratic votes.

Regardless of whether Thomas or Barrow wins in 2010 the Republican Legislature will be out for blood in the next round of redistricting

Male 21 Dem Ca's 1st  

[ Parent ]
Does the governor have a say in GA redistricting?
Because if so, I doubt Roy Barnes would allow anything too egregious to pass.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Yes
That's one of two reasons why we absolutely have to win the governor's mansion this year.  The other is that the governor's party gets first listing on the ballot.  I would love to go into 2012 with fair fight maps, Obama on the ballot, and first listing for our candidates.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
They tried that in 2005
didn't work.

Georgia is gaining a seat in 2010, it would be wiser for them to give Barrow a relatively safe seat and try to get rid of Marshall while drawing a new Republican district.

[ Parent ]
Actually, they didn't
The Georgia Republicans could have gone much further in 2005 and removed one or both of Marshall and Barrow. If they wanted to play games with the VRA, they could have even consolidated Atlanta Dems into two seats. But they went with a good looking map above all else (though, of course, their incumbents were happy with their seats).  
[ Parent ]
VRA
The district is probably majority-minority by now.  I doubt they could get away with that.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
1990 NC Senate, 2002 GA Senate and 2006- TN Senate
because I'm damn proud of Harvey Gannt, Max Cleland and Harold Ford who had to endure the racist and anti-patriotic Republicans.

these races are why i'm a Democrat and damn proud of it

2010
Im getting quite pessimistic about the healthcare vote and even Im tempted to declare, you dont get it passed Im not showing up to vote, and voting is definitely one of the best highs one can get, you feel so good afterwards!  This is just an empty threat, very important MN races in 2010.  But Congress needs to be sent a message, you dont get the agenda AMERICANS voted to get enacted then a lot of us will be staying home.

And if Reid cant get it passed, Id love to see some netroots action with getting him replaced.  If you cant manage to get your caucus to vote for one of the key items of your president's agenda, then what good are ya?  Why are you our Senate leader?  Someone please tell me Dkos has something in the works because this is ridiculous.

Could Shelley Berkley win a primary against Harry Reid???

[ Parent ]
And on the same subject...
Could Rosa DeLauro beat Chris Dodd in a primary. My solution to any possible dems electoral problems, change the candidates. How about having Angie Paccione challenging Michael Bennett.
[ Parent ]
CO--Senate
   I thought I heard that Angie Paccione moved out of state. I am not 100% sure of that, but somehow I remembered that she was unavailable for a rematch against Marilyn Muskrat in CO-04 last year. Any Square Staters have more details?

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
Paccione is now
a business leadership consultant with Pathways to Leadership. They appear to be out of Lakewood.  So, far from leaving Colorado, it appears she just went into the Denver Metro.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I would think easily
But she won't run.

The ideal candidate is some older minor officeholder, like a Reno councilmember.  Someone who couldn't care less if they lost, who has a clean reputation.

I suspect someone could beat Reid even if outspent 10-1.

[ Parent ]
Just spent a week in Reno
And when we did check out TV, we felt almost bombarded by Harry Reid ads - even weirder - they all seemed like bio spots - introducing his education, work as a cop, work regulating casinos, etc.

While there were bits about Reid fighting for this or that issue, most of the ads were like NV voters know nothing about him.

I thought Reid was like a NV institution - at least as discussed in this diary http://www.dailykos.com/story/...  

[ Parent ]
Lots of new people in the state
who don't know him from Adan.
[ Parent ]
Reid is one of the two races
where I will be rooting for the GOP candidate.  I see no other realistic way for Reid to be replaced as majority leader than for him not to be returned to the Senate.
[ Parent ]
Keep in mind
even Lyndon Johnson couldn't get the entire Democratic caucus to vote for key items in the Democratic agenda.

Senate leaders are a misnomer, you can't lead a caucus in the Senate, no one can.  

[ Parent ]
Johnson got crucial cooperation from
Northern Republicans. Things were different then.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Yes exactly
Johnson wasn't necessarily a better leader, he had bipartisan support, something Reid doesn't enjoy. You can't fault him for that. Not that I'm defending Reid overall, but when one asks him to force all 60 Democrats to vote party line all the time, what you're asking for is for Reid to do something no Senate leader has ever successfully done.

[ Parent ]
Do you think someone who had done what Lieberman did
would have had his committee chairmanship stripped and been thrown out of the Democratic Caucus by Rayburn or Johnson? It's that kind of thing that drives a lot of Democrats up the wall.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
No, I don't
James Eastland was a racist who held up Civil Rights, he didn't lose his Judiciary Committee chairmanship. Robert Byrd still rose to be Majority Whip a few years after filibusting a major legislative goal of his party.

Johnson and Rayburn didn't punish Democrats who voted against their wishes...there was just too many of them...what they did instead is appeal to Republicans whose votes they can win.

We don't have that luxury now.

Actually, looking at history, Democrats are far more united now than they were in the past. 48 Democrats opposed Medicare/Medicaid. If all the Republicans voted against it in a bloc in 1965, it would have still passed, 237-186, but keep in mind that Democrats had a 295-140 majority in the House at the time.  

[ Parent ]
For a better understanding
48 out of 295 Democrats opposed Medicare/Medicaid...that's 16.1% of the caucus.

39 out of 258 Democrats opposed healthcare reform this year...that's 15.1% of the caucus.

Pelosi did a better job uniting the caucus on this issue than McCormack did on Medicare/Medicaid, and that's not counting the moderates Pelosi allowed to vote no after whipping them into yes.  

[ Parent ]
Thanks
I appreciate the historical perspective.

I'm sure few on DailyKos would listen. Some would probably call you various names for posting it, in fact. Glad to read it here.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Yeah, yeah, everyone says it
but the 2008 MN-Sen razor-close finish was epic.  Sometimes I still can't believe Al Franken knocked off an incumbent Republican Senator.  The recount process was tremendously interesting by itself as well.  Lizard people, 'nuff said.
AR-02 poll
PPP has ugly numbers for Vic Snyder.

http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

A favorite of mine
My own district last year.  Tom Feeney drew his own new district (FL-24) since he was speaker of the state House prior to 2002.  He actually drew himself a semi-competitive (right-leaning) district rather than a solidly conservative one in order to allow republicans in Florida to maximize their gerrymander.  In the first election (2002) for the newly drawn seat he won a blowout with over 60% of the vote.  In 2004 he didn't even draw a challenger.  In 2006 Dems squandered a golden opportunity running a token Dem with a questionable mental state (the guy at one point claimed he busted up spy rings) running and amazingly taking abour 43% of the vote.

When 2008 rolled around my term-limited state Rep. Kosmas decided to take a shot at Feeney.  She was widely viewed as a top-tier candidate but still a heavy underdog.  For most of 2008 it appeared Feeney would still pull the race out.  Then Feeney did the unthinkable.  He aired a TV ad admitting he was a crook thanks to his Abramoff connections.   I can only imagine his campaign thought an apology ad for being crooked was a smart move.  It was not and Feeney's numbers plummeted.  By election day everyone knew Kosmas was going to win but even I was taken aback by Kosmas's 57-43 landslide.  Feeney even lost the vote in the heavily conservative suburban portion of Orange County he lives in.  

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 167 comments

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