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NC-Sen: Cunningham Won't Run

by: James L.

Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 1:08 AM EST


The Democratic field for the race against GOP Sen. Richard Burr just got a bit thinner tonight. Cal Cunningham, a former state Senator and Iraq vet who had been enthusiastically exploring the race for several months, is out of the running:

Cal Cunningham, a Lexington Democrat who had been exploring a U.S. Senate bid for months, said late Monday that he will not run.

The decision is a possible indicator the U.S. Rep. Bob Etheridge will seek the Democratic nomination to challenge Sen. Richard Burr in 2010. Secretary of State Elaine Marshall and Durham lawyer Kenneth Lewis have already announced they are in the primary.

Etheridge, who represents an R+2 district in the Raleigh area, is expected to make a decision on this race very, very soon. Cunningham seemed pretty jazzed to jump into this race, so perhaps his withdrawal may be a sign that Etheridge is leaning toward a run.

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James L. :: NC-Sen: Cunningham Won't Run
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NC-Sen: Cunningham Won't Run | 68 comments
I hope Marshall gets the nomination
she has the best chance at unseating Richard Burr.
I think that Marshall would be the best against Burr
Anyone think that Cunningham bowing out changes the dynamics at all, I don't see how it does.

Bill Hedrick for Congress
Unsure of Etheridge
His House seat could be a difficult hold (just working off of the PVI and the Pres. results from last year here though) and beyond being a sitting Rep I've not heard much to suggest he'd be a particularly strong candidate.  
He's got a solidly moderate record
He would attract most of the Democrats who make up the largest voting bloc in the state, and would be good with independents. He'd be widely supported by both the state party, the federal party, and he has a lot of DC connections. I personally think he'd be a stronger candidate than Elaine Marshall.

But I don't want to lose his seat, and that is a possibility...

[ Parent ]
What does "moderate" mean?
Does it mean a so-called "centrist" who might not support crucial health care or environmental legislation, for example (ahem! Charlie Melancon), or someone more like Kay Hagan? People, especially in the mainstream media, tend to use "moderate" for the most right-wing, corporatist elements in the Democratic Party, so what should be a good word has become a red flag to me.
[ Parent ]
His votes on health care are there for you to see.
He voted for the House resolution. (Good!)

He also voted for the Stupak-Pitts amendment. (Bad.)

[ Parent ]
Why "moderate" is good?
He has a better chance of winning. Provided he runs a campaign not managed by a zombie.

He's also a pretty reliable democratic vote. He did vote for HCR after all. If you want a Barbara Boxer in North Carolina, don't hold your breath.

[ Parent ]
I fully agree
It's just that there are real moderates and fake "moderates." That's all.

How someone votes in the House is somewhat of an indication of how they may vote in the Senate, so that's very useful. Of course, we have to keep in mind the differences in the constituencies, and how that could influence their future voting record. One example of a pretty big divergence between her House and Senate voting record, due to differences in the constituencies, is Kirsten Gillibrand of New York.

[ Parent ]
Interesting...
Marshall and Etheridge live in the same neighborhood in tiny Lillington, NC.  Both got their political starts in Harnett County.  I'm with Marshall but I like both.
[ Parent ]
Damn
I was hoping he would run. I find it hard to take this kind of thing seriously after someone has been campaigning:

I also owe it to my family - before committing us to a hard year - to be a husband and father first.

If he had felt that way, he probably wouldn't have even started campaigning. Of course, it's possible he reconsidered, largely for the reasons he stated (that he'd really rather spend more time with his family) but I'm thinking he decided that he had gotten his name out there a little and would be better served politically by waiting for a campaign he felt he had a better shot of winning:

As a candidate, I have to look supporters in the eye and show them how we win - and what we do when we get there.

And he evidently didn't think he could do that. Pity.

Why? He strikes me as a sacrificial lamb candidate......
He's not even a sitting state legislator, right?...he's a "former" state Senator?

And we don't have the wind at our backs next year, like we had last year when Hagan beat Dole.  I anticipate likely a neutral environment, with a chance of the winds blowing slightly against us.

Cunningham would be crushed.

We need a sitting officeholder or someone otherwise with great name recognition and popularity (like Mike Easley, but he obviously doesn't want it).

[ Parent ]
You've got to be kidding?
Mike Easley is absolutely toxic.  Hardly a day passes that another trading favors for influence scandal doesn't surface.  I doubt if Easley could get 40% in NC now.

I liked Cunningham a lot.  I definitely would have supported him.  Note that the reason he's a former state Senator is that he left office to serve overseas in the military.  That would not be viewed as a negative here.

Probably the best thing Marshall has going for her is that over the last number of elections here no male candidate has been able to defeat a female candidate for any statewide office, regardless of party.

I'm not wild about Etheridge, frankly.  I think he's a lot more conservative than a Democrat needs to be to win statewide office.

Obviously, no one right now has the profile of Hagan, who was an obvious star in the making for years before she finally pulled the trigger and ran.  Should note though that Kay chose not to run last time, then changed her mind, so maybe Cal could still be persuaded.

[ Parent ]
Really?......how much has this been in the news?......
Easley was certainly sky-high popular through 2008, and he was the DSCC's top recruiting target against Dole.  Of course that worked out great for us anyway with Hagan, so we don't care anymore.

I haven't followed state politics closely any time recently, but whatever "scandal" has plagued Easley since he left office certainly hasn't reached the national political news beat which I do follow closely.

[ Parent ]
Around here
A pretty good bit.  Apparently he treated himself rather well on foreign trips using taxpayers money.  There are some investigations going on and he was recently fined $100,000 by the SBOE.

http://www2.journalnow.com/con...

[ Parent ]
More Easley ...
Plus he allegedly took tens of thousands of free airplane rides without reporting them, may have billed home improvements to his campaign by disguising them as airplane rides, and apparently got a cushy, high paying job for his wife at NC State for which she may not have been fully qualified.

As you said, it may not have hit national news (probably because it's mostly coming out after he left office), but there's something in the local papers pretty much every day.

[ Parent ]
Sorry ...
that should be tens of thousands of dollars of free airplane rides ...
[ Parent ]
Wrong
As your reference to Easley shows, you don't really follow NC politics too closely.  That's fine I don't follow the politics of other states that closely either.  You will find that almost all the NC Dems on this board supported Cunningham over Marshall.  Cunningham is very much like Grier Martin.  Both are lawyers with military experience who are good speakers.  They are both young and charismatic and hopefully one day they will be the Junior and Senior Senators from NC.  Cunningham would bring a dynamic that Marshall can't to this race.  He would have generally excited the Democratic base.  That is something that we desperately need this election cycle in NC.  We are extremely overstretched in both the NC Senate and House and are going to be playing a ridiculous amount of defense this year.  We need as many democratic voters going to the polls as humanly possible.  Mrs. Marshall is a safe candidate who would've made an excellent Governor, but she won't excite the base.  We would be much better off with a stronger person at the top of the ticket.

I understand Cunningham's reason not to run.  He travelled all over the state listening to voters, many of which I think were supportive of him.  At the end of the day, however, people have to understand that he has been deployed twice, doing one tour in Iraq, meaning that he spent a lot of time away from his family.  It's not just running for Senate that is time consuming, it's being a Senator.  He would need to spend a large portion of his time in Washington, and that's tough on a family with small children.

In the end, I am disappointed that he won't be running.  I will reiterate, however, that he would have been far from a sacrificial lamb.  He would have been exactly what we need to be at the top of the ticket this cycle, somebody that I, much like many other North Carolinians, would have been excited to vote for and support.  I understand his decision, however, and look forward to voting for him in the future.

[ Parent ]
You're right, I don't follow it too closely anymore......
I went to law school at Duke in the early 90s and was deeply involved in volunteering on campaigns in those years, and at the time was pretty plugged in.  I got to be friends with the two people who were put in charge of Jim Hunt's political hires across the state, and I probably could have gotten something if I wanted it.

But, having gone to NC only for law school, I wasn't interested in staying there, and my attention to NC politics has declined gradually over the years since then.

That said, on the surface Cunningham doesn't look like anything special, but you're saying he's John Edwards circa 1997-98 (i.e., short or no political resume and no name recognition but highly talented and skilled politically).

I guess if you're right, we'll hear from Cunningham again at some point.

I remember Grier Martin's name bandied about a year ago, and I wasn't excited about him back then, either.

But yes, locals know better who has the right stuff and who doesn't.

[ Parent ]
Cunningham
I hope he runs statewide in 2012.  I would really like to see somebody beat Cherie Berry, but I don't know if that race would interest him or not.
[ Parent ]
Berry
Yeah, I'd like to see her out, too.  But you have to give her credit for political instincts.  Putting her picture on the elevator inspection cards and labor regulation posters gives her a name recognition that most of those in the "lesser known" state offices don't have.  It's like having non-stop campaign ads.  I have to believe this was the main reason she won this year, becoming the first Republican woman to defeat a Democratic woman in a statewide race in years.  I'm surprised none of her predecessors thought of it, but it was a brilliant move.
[ Parent ]
Just listen to him speak
He's an absolutely dynamic speaker.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

There are several other videos of Youtube from his speeches.  This guy is a rising star.  Look for Cal, Grier Martin, and Anthony Foxx to be the leaders of the next generation of the Democratic Party here in NC.

[ Parent ]
Anthony Foxx makes more sense to me......
Charlotte Mayor is a huge platform.  A non-leadership state legislative seat is a weak platform, and virtually non-existent if you've got "former" in front of the title.

So I would expect Foxx's name to pop up in the future for House or Senate or Governor.

I volunteered for Harvey Gantt vs. Helms in 1990, and it was a heartbreaker.

Obama's win last year helped heal that wound for me and lose a lot of my contempt for the state's voters.

Foxx ultimately becoming Governor or U.S. Senator would erase Helms' legacy altogether.

[ Parent ]
What's the big deal?
About not being in the legislature?  Larry Kissell never served in the Legislature, Mel Watt served one term several years before his election to Congress.  Burr never served in the Legislature.  McIntyre never served in the Legislature.  John Edwards never did either.  All of these guys were great candidates anyway.  The platform isn't nearly as important as the message and the way it's delivered.  

Elaine Marshall has a great record of public service and I really respect that, but Cunningham is no slouch either.  While in college he served a Student Body President and as the Chief Justice of the Student Supreme Court.  He won in a deep red State Senate district and served a term before his district was broken up.  He did one tour in Iraq, where he successfully tried independent contractors for crimes committed in Iraq, and another tour of active duty as well.  He received the Bronze Star Medal and the General Douglas MacArthur Leadership Award.  

On serveral occassions I compared him to John Edwards when I was talking to friends.  He's that kind of candidate.  Young, charismatic, intelligent, and somebody that can really connect to voters.  To dismiss him because he is a former legislator would be a huge mistake.  

[ Parent ]
If he's another John Edwards, great, but...
...that is just really rare.

It's extraordinarily hard to run for Governor or for U.S. Senate without a current elected or recent more high-profile elected platform.

What I focus on with Cunningham is "former" in front of his state legislative title.  That hurts, when you're "former."  And when it was a former state legislator, that's not a very big platform.

Kay Hagan needed a wind at her back to get in position to beat Libby Dole.  I was surprised the attacks on Dole's physical absenteeism from the state worked...I would not have guessed that would matter so much.  And it would NOT have mattered without a wind at our backs.

John Edwards, too, had the advantage of a very slight wind at his back, from the anti-Republican backlash against Clinton's impeachment.  Oh, and he was a rich self-funder!...that mattered A LOT.

We're going to have no better than a neutral environment next year.  We won't have a wind at our backs.  I'm still confident the health care legislation will be completed and be a real accomplishment to tout (whether or not it proves the best set of policy choices long-term), and most importantly the economy clearly will be heading in the right direction in most voters' minds.  But white independents still will have their concerns about government spending and about one-party rule.  If they paid more attention they'd realize it's hardly one-party rule with Republicans so committed to stopping everything that any Democratic dissent kills legislation.  But most voters don't care about politics enough to notice that.

So all in all, I'm very skeptical that Cunningham, if he ran, would fare well against Burr next year.

Maybe in a better environment or for a different office he'd do better.  A guy with Cunningham's overall profile and the charisma you claim he has would be a great choice for a U.S. House run.  U.S. Senate is a much higher bar.

[ Parent ]
Cunningham reminds me of a washed up politician
in Illinois who had already lost a race, whom the GOP was itching to face.  

ILLINOIS:  This election remains the Democrats' best chance to pickup a seat currently held by a Republican and state comptroller Dan Hynes appears well on his way to winning his party's nomination. The GOP's best hope would be for state Sen. Barack Obama to upset him in the primary. LEANING DEMOCRATIC TAKEOVER

This has long looked like the Democrats' best pick-up opportunity in 2004. Now Blair Hull, who has led several recent polls for the Democratic nomination, is accused of abusing his ex-wife. A group called the Illinois Coalition Against Sexual Assault has called for him to withdraw and he appears ready to sink fast. Perhaps this will give comptroller Dan Hynes the opening he needs to win-he is probably the best candidate the Democrats can put forward. Another challenger is state senator Barack Obama, who holds a very narrow lead over Hynes in the latest survey. Republicans would love to run against a tainted Hull and they wouldn't mind facing Obama, either. The GOP is lining up behind former investment banker Jack Ryan, who is not to be confused with the former governor, also named Ryan, or the Tom Clancy action hero.

http://author.nationalreview.c...

[ Parent ]
No comparison, not even close......
First, Obama was a sitting state Senator, not "former" anything.  Thus he still had a platform.  Cunningham right now does not.

And it was an open seat, Obama wasn't looking to challenge an incumbent Republican.  Obviously if you're talking about Cunningham's future and not just the current cycle, this point doesn't automatically apply, but it sure applies for NC-Sen 2010.

And Illinois was/is a liberal-leaning blue state, North Carolina is a conservative-leaning purple state.

And regarding personal charisma, while I haven't heard or seen a video of Cunningham on the stump, Obama is a once-in-a-lifetime political figure, and I doubt there's anyone like him in the country today.

All I know is there's always a lot of Kool-Aid passed out on liberal blogs about so many candidates and prospective candidates who just aren't "all that."  So I'm skeptical of hearing raves about someone who neither is strong on paper nor is touted in pundit circles.  Yes, I know Obama was a nobody per my criteria, but he's the exception that proves the rule.

I just want a Democrat to beat Burr, and I don't know who that could be.

[ Parent ]
Well
And regarding personal charisma, while I haven't heard or seen a video of Cunningham on the stump

maybe you ought to before dismissing him.  The video linked upthread is a good display for Cunningham's charisma.

Obama's state senate seat didn't really give him much of a platform, except maybe a set of votes for a GOP attack.  He represented a very blue area in Chicago, started with little money or organizational support, and was seen as loser after his run for Congress in 2000.  The support that kept him alive in 2003 came from the same progressive circles like the Dean movement and the liberal blogosphere in its infancy then that you so deride.

I honestly think that Cal Cunningham is a stronger candidate in 2009 than Obama was in 2003.

[ Parent ]
What you're saying is great
But you don't know of the Charlotte curse... practically every mayor in the last 30 years at least has run statewide and lost:

Knox for Governor (D - primary) lost in 1984
Gantt for Senate (D-general) lost in both 1990 and 1996
Myrick for Senate (R- primary) lost in 1992
Vinroot for Governor (R - primary and general) lost a bunch! (96, 00, 04)
McCrory for Governor (R - general) lost in 2008

Until Charlotte vastly outweighs the rest of the state in population, there will seriously be an anti-Charlotte mood around the state.  If it wasn't broken last year there's no telling when it will be broken.

PS - i'm not upset it exists, either!

[ Parent ]
Why aren't you upset it exists?
n/t
[ Parent ]
that was more of a joke
than anything.  I've voted for multiple Charlotte folks (all Dems, of course).  But it really is amazing the attitude that exists towards Charlotte in the rural areas.  It really doesn't exist towards any other of our more populous areas, even when someone talks about hating Raleigh, its not the same.
[ Parent ]
Not sure why
because the Triangle is much more liberal than Charlotte.  It doesn't even feel like the South.
[ Parent ]
It's not about liberal
It's the attitude that Charlotte has had for decades of being better than the rest of the state.  Folks think that Charlotte has its nose in the air; Charlotte is perceived to be real snooty.  Charlotte has never been as liberal as anywhere else (hence all the GOP mayors).
[ Parent ]
I get that sense in RTP
Hell I personally think that way, that this place is better than anywhere else in the South, let alone North Carolina.
[ Parent ]
Not this one!
I have the privilege of having known both since the 1990s and they are both great NC Democrats (Marshall and Cunningham).  I'll vote for the nominee no matter who it is, but I'm for Marshall (despite myself also being pro-Stupak...gasp!)
[ Parent ]
Understandable
I think she's just not exciting enough to head our ticket this time around with so much at stake.  The Senate and House have a chance to flip to R which would be really bad news for us in terms of redistricting.  She definitely has my vote right now though.  
[ Parent ]
I would love to see
two women Democratic Senators from the state of NC.  Oooo, and MO!
[ Parent ]
All the buzz suggests the DSCC is underwhelmed...
...by Marshall.  She must really be lacking in one or two things they want to see for them to keep looking, because normally a 4-term statewide elected official, even downballot in a state with a lot of them like NC, is a real good get.
[ Parent ]
Good news since I assume it means Etheridge will run
Etheridge is the best candidate, and he is the one candidate who can say "I voted for health care and Burr did not."

It is one of the few places where that direct challenge can be laid before the voters... and we see what happens.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

...and he voted for the Stupak-Pitts amendment.
It will be interesting to see what Elaine Marshall says on that point. That could be a clear dividing line in the minds of undecided voters.
[ Parent ]
Stupak won't matter in the end......
It will be raised in a primary but ultimately won't have too much traction because it won't be in the final bill that Obama signs into law.

Clyburn says they swung 10 votes with it.  They'll lose those 10 but get many more in the conference bill vote way down the road, simply because that bill will be more conservative (not good, but it is what it is) than the House bill that just passed, and because I suspect a lot of the recent "no" voting members will learn from this last vote that they get a net loss rather than a net gain from voters by opposing their own party's signature legislation.

Slowly but surely I think some of our Blue Dog or otherwise scared Dems are "getting it" or at least will get it that unless you're a longtime established and enormously personally popular figure like Gene Taylor or Chet Edwards, the (D) next to your name is decisive, and you gotta maximize support from people who like that letter next to your name because the people who don't like it can't be won over no matter what you do.

Ultimately there won't be a Stupak provision in the health care reform law, and it will be forgotten by voters.

[ Parent ]
Just as long as we have a top-tier candidate here
the polls look bad now, but a year from now if the environment is even slightly more pro-Dem, unpopular incumbents like Burr will fall.  I see nothing to indicate that Burr can get his approval ratings up above where they are now.  He will only scrape by if things remain bad for us next year.
Oh, he'll do much better than "scrape by" if...
...things "remain bad" for us next year.

If we're running into a headwind nationally, then Burr easily tops 55% and wins by double digits.

I'm still anticipating a likely neutral environment next year, which means we're still less than 50-50 odds of beating him, but not much less than that given his seeming vulnerability.

[ Parent ]
Well ...
Nobody wins Senate races by double digits here in North Carolina.  
[ Parent ]
Exactly...
Each side starts out with 45%, the battle is for the remaining 10%.  If Burr gets to 55% with his polling and the 6 year jinx on that seat, then it is going to be a LOOOOOOONG night for Democrats nationwide.

NC is VERY swingy and responds in kind to national trends, but many NC voters don't even know who Burr is.  You can't ignore that.    

[ Parent ]
I am concerned about economic trends
If there is still high unemployment in 2010, the Democrats will take a huge bath.
[ Parent ]
Hoping for Etheridge...
I don't know much about Marshall, bu tshe is a little old and SOS's don't tend to translate well to a Federal race (hopefully that is true in KY too).  

This is a winnable race, to be sure.  Democrats simply cannot leave it on the table.  The primary isn't far off either.  How much $ do Etheridge and Marshall have so far BTW?    

A quick Wikipedia check shows ...
Etheridge is actually older than Marshall, by 4 fours.  So much for that advantage.  

Reading their bios though, Etheridge is DEFINITELY stronger, IMO.  Etheridge has won statewide twice as Education head.  Education has always been a very powerful and salient issue for NC Democrats including Kay Hagan.  His CD also covers two major cities, Raleigh and Fayetteville.  

He looks pretty strong on paper, and he has never lost a race, at least not one listed by Wikipedia.  Marshall lost the Dem nomination to Erskine Bowles.

The Pirmary is on 5/4, so Etheridge needs to fish or cut bait soon.  Hopefully he announces this week.          

[ Parent ]
Note, however,
that until a recent court case win by the current Superintendent of Education (basically saying that she should head the state school board, not a gubenatorial appointee), that position had virtually no power or influence.
[ Parent ]
Etheridge is 5 years older than Marshall

[ Parent ]
Republicans will probably be more motivated to vote in NC
I would be fine with either Marshall or Bob Etheridge, but the fact that he voted for Stupak disappoints me, but my guess Etheridge has a pretty strong pro-life majority in his district.  If I am wrong then good.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  
Which House District Does Cunningham Live In?
Would it possible for him to run for a House seat?  Possibly even Etheridge's open seat.  At least on paper he sounds like he'd be a strong candidate.
Cunningham's future...
Cunningham lives in Covington. Most of Covington is included in NC-12 with Democrat Mel Watt. A little bit of that area is included in NC-06 with Republican Howard Coble.

It seems that his former State Senate seat was cobbled up into new districts. His Wikipedia entry says that he represented a district that represented Davidson, Rowan and Iredell Counties - and all of the State Senators now representing those counties are Republicans.

It's great that he's so well-regarded and all, but it's not clear to me where Cunningham's re-entry into actual elected politics will be.

[ Parent ]
Lexington, not Covington
You're right, though; unless Cunningham runs for a statewide post in 2012, I don't see where he can get back into politics.
[ Parent ]
My bad...
...you're right: Lexington, not Covington. I don't know why I typed that.

I'm pretty sure everything else in my post is accurate.

[ Parent ]
What A Disappointment
For all those people who had huge boners for Cal Cunningham running for Senate, and now all hopes are dashed.

My Can Of Contemplation is now open to all for perusal.
What exactly is your issue?
The tone of this comment is bizarre, to say the least.
[ Parent ]
This guy was by far our best candidate
Too bad.
Unfortunately
I think Burr will be difficult to beat no matter who we put up and despite whatever is going on nationally.  The fundamentals are not the same for him as they were for Dole.  He is actually from here, comes back, and works hard.  He is much more visible but in DC and in NC.  Dole was never a legislator at heart; Burr is.  He knows how to work the system to his own advantage (not in a bad, unethical way).

Again, I know both Cal and Elaine but I seriously never understood the fetish people had for him.  I post on blogs, read them, etc. but just because someone like him shows attention to the blogosphere doesn't make him our best candidate.  Elaine's stronger than folks give her credit for.  

In 2002, our primary was split 3 ways - all the blacks went for Blue, all the leadership for Bowles (remember we had a thing then for self-funders).  Elaine simply got squeezed out.  I think shes learned her lessons from then and is a strong candidate this go round.  

It's up to us to be excited, no matter what!

My primary problems with Marshall
One she is 65 years old. Not great for accumulating seniority.  Second, she is much like Bev Purdue, a rural officeholder rather than a suburban one like Kay Hagan, when the suburbs are moving drastically toward us, and the white rural areas are becoming the GOP base.  

[ Parent ]
I don't think its a good idea
to be against someone based on where they are from especially if the accuser is not a resident of North Carolina.  Our rural Democratic base is still very strong.  We are not like the rest of the south.  Our party is not concentrated in a few small areas.  In fact, if our state house caucus in 2008 had focused on some rural races vs. the same old suburban legislative seats around Raleigh, we might have kept two incumbents and picked up a few seats.  Just because a place has suburbs doesn't make it Democratic.  Just ask Fairfax County in Virginia from this year...

Second, Kay Hagan did not have the liberal vote during the primary of 2008.  The blogosphere, at least, was strongly for Jim Neal, who of course got clobbered.

Third, Elaine is a very "progressive" candidate (I use parentheses because I think that word has been over-used and is spent).

Fourth, Elaine has a great base... the whole state.  She is consistently among the top vote-getters.  No, its not a visible office.  It's not even responsible for elections like in most states.  But folks know Elaine and they trust her.  

I'll worry about seniority once we win.  Until then, I have one goal - get North Carolina two senators - two women, in fact.

[ Parent ]
I live in in the Raleigh/Durham area
Furthermore, I don't appreciate you talking down to me, and I don't think it is a good idea to assume when someone lives.

Barack Obama did not win the state because he was strong in the write rural areas, in fact, he was weaker than Kerry in many places, especially Eastern NC.  He won the state because he a) turned out blacks, and b) ran up massive majorities in the urban/suburban areas.  Given that North Carolina has been extremely inhospitable to national Democrats, especially non-Southern Democrats, what Obama did is worth noting.  

Kay Hagan also won based on this formula, she did better statewide everywhere because Dole was an abysmal candidate who made mistake after mistake.  While Kay Hagan was not a liberal, she was not a rural Blue Dog conservative either.  She was from Greensboro, a suburban Democrat who is center-left, who is the new prototype for winning in the New South.

The only candidate who did run using the old formula, blacks and rural whites as Bev Purdue.  And she did atrocious for a Democrat in the metro areas, much the same way that Deeds did.  And if Obama had not been on the ballot to turn out blacks, Purdue would have lost.  The fact that she did so poorly for a NC Democrat, when the national Democratic candidate did so well (better than anyone in 32 years), clearly suggests that this strategy is a loser.

The rural South is quickly becoming the base of the GOP and is shrinking, and like what happened in Virginia, where Deeds did several points worse in his home region than did a liberal black from Chicago, the Dems are losing white support in the rural areas in droves.  Elaine Marshall will end up like Creigh Deeds if she uses that strategy, Deeds was considered pretty well liked too and was considered the strongest candidate because he was supposedly popular in the whole South.  And unless Bev Purdue can improve among suburbanites (and most people in the Triangle I know dislike her), she will run behind Obama in 2012 statewide and lose.

If I had my way, I would map out a whole new long term strategy for the South.  Forget kissing the rear of old rural white conservatives, they are the base of the GOP.  Focus on turning out blacks and winning metro voters.

Only candidate I would prefer less than Marshall is a Blue Dog Congressperson.  I really feel that Richard Burr was reelected today when Cal Cunningham decided not to run, he was by far the best candidate to win,    

[ Parent ]
Well I guess the flaw in your logic
which you seem to correct yourself is that yes, following a strategy of appealing to white rural folks in the South is becoming a dead end strategy for Democrats.  But, as you kind of allude to but kind of dont, is that even if Marshall is from these rural areas, doesnt mean she'll follow that strategy.

Being from these areas while never having a campaign focus on these areas is probably the best strategy a candidate could have.  In these situations, I think of Rep. Walz of MN-1 who was rumored to be a MN-Gov candidate.  He may not have been able to win the DFL nomination (hard to judge how he'd do with 12 freaking candidates!) but in a general election, I have no doubt that he'd do the best by far of any of the DFL candidates currently in the race.  Why?  Because he's from southern Minnesota, far outside of the major metro.  He'd be able to use his small-town rural charm and representation to his advantage automatically while being able to rely on that support and instead would be campaigning in the suburbs and the city to rack up the rest of the votes he'd need.  This makes me quite curious on how sen. Bakk would do, who I feel like Hatch in 06 would be CRUSHED in the suburbs but would rock it out in Greater Minnesota and the Twin Cities.

I dont know NC well at all as a Minnesotan but if Marshall has street cred in the rural areas of the state, she could use that to secure a healthy portion of the vote automatically and then use her campaign time to secure the rest of the vote she needs in the burbs and cities to get her the win.

Deeds was just an extreme example of a Democratic candidate being from outside a metro area and trying to work that advantage to the point of ignoring where a very large majority of Democratic vote margins are built, in the cities and 1st ring working class suburbs.

[ Parent ]
I guess to sum it up succinctly
its not where the candidate is from but what strategy the candidate is using, which Im sure you recognize but just didnt really spell it like you should have with your criticism.
[ Parent ]
That is correct
If Marshall recognizes that the strategy should change, then her being from a rural areas has no bearing.

But that is usually not the case.  When you have spent your entire career winning white rural votes, it often becomes difficult to come to the realization that your "bread and butter" strategy won't cut it anymore.

I disagree with this however:

I dont know NC well at all as a Minnesotan but if Marshall has street cred in the rural areas of the state, she could use that to secure a healthy portion of the vote automatically and then use her campaign time to secure the rest of the vote she needs in the burbs and cities to get her the win.

Rural NC is not quite like rural Midwest. It is much more conservative.  They are not mostly Catholics, Lutherans or other mainline Protestant, but Southern Baptist and/or fundamentalist.  In addition, whites in rural NC aren't just skeptical of Obama, they hate his guts with a passion, don't believe that he is an American, and want to see him removed ASAP.  It is quite a different anger and fervor over here among many rural whites.  Reason no longer works in that circumstance.  You don't have the situation anymore in the South (you did 10 years ago), where someone like a Paul Wellstone, very liberal but with a populist pro-farmer image, could win conservative rural areas.  (Polls showed Wellstone up big against Coleman in rural MN before he died, what made the race close was that Wellstone was struggling mightily in the suburbs.)

Secondly, "street cred" among rural whites may not work anymore.  Deeds had that "street cred", yet he ended up doing significantly worse than Obama in SW Virginia.  

Thirdly, many suburbanites are Northern transplants, and the centrists among them are not exactly enthralled by those who have a folksy Southern rural twang.    

[ Parent ]
Same happened in Gov 06 race
Hatch did extremely well in Greater Minnesota while Pawlenty only lost Hennepin county by 10%, which is Minneapolis plus 800k pop worth of suburbs.  That's a pretty damn close margin considering how Democratic the suburbs have gotten over the past few years.
[ Parent ]
My mistake
I apologize for my tone.  I realized it was wrong shortly after I wrote it but fell asleep.

The strategy you refer to is right, for sure.  But its not like North Carolina is a sea of red with a few blue islands.  Many suburban precincts in North Carolina went Republican by massive margins last fall - whether its outside Raleigh, outside Charlotte, in the Triad or outside Wilmington.  It is a terrible assumption to make that just because its a suburb, they must be open to voting Democratic.  And it does sound like you're making the assumption that because someone is from a rural area that they don't know how to branch out.  

I get defensive because I am a rural Democrat.  I don't like being written off or talked down to myself.  I see what Virginia bloggers are doing to Deeds and even Glenn Nye - basically saying they know best because they are in NoVa.  I'll support our nominee no matter where they are from.

Perdue ran a horrible campaign.  Thats why I voted for Moore in the primary.  But there is no evidence thus far that Marshall is running a Deeds Campaign or that Cunningham wouldn't have.  They were following the same path.

[ Parent ]
This is true technically
Many suburban precincts in North Carolina went Republican by massive margins last fall - whether its outside Raleigh, outside Charlotte, in the Triad or outside Wilmington.  It is a terrible assumption to make that just because its a suburb, they must be open to voting Democratic.  And it does sound like you're making the assumption that because someone is from a rural area that they don't know how to branch out.  

But I have seen how suburbs in the North change (I was originally from a very red suburb in the Chicago area, one that voted for Dole by over 20% in 1996, and voted for Obama by almost 15% in 2008), and I think the same will be happening the growth areas in the South.  Look at which districts where Obama showed the least growth over Kerry, NC-7 (Obama probably did worse among whites here), NC-10, and NC-11, all areas with heavy white working class.  Obama's biggest improvement came in NC-9, which are the heavily GOP suburbs and exurbs of Charlotte, NC-8, combination of Charlotte, suburbs and exurbs, and textile areas, and NC-4 and 13, RTP.

Perdue ran a horrible campaign.  Thats why I voted for Moore in the primary.  But there is no evidence thus far that Marshall is running a Deeds Campaign or that Cunningham wouldn't have.  They were following the same path.

Purdue didn't run a horrible campaign.  She was just not a good fit for the metro areas, and Pat McCrory was an excellent fit for a Repub.  She got the base Democratic vote (which was heavily expanded due to Obama) there but nothing else.  

This might be harsh, but the Democrats are finished for a generation in the white rural South.  We will win occasional races there (particularly incumbents, although I think 2010 will be a disaster there), like the GOP will win in New England occasionally.  But just like New England is the Dem base, the white rural South is a GOP base, and if the Dems want to win Southern states, they better find another path to do.

[ Parent ]
I don't believe
that Perdue ran a great campaign and just wasn't a good fit.  She did not have a clear message like McCrory had.

And I have a theory, albeit somewhat simplistic: the suburbs up North are becoming more Democratic because all those folks are moving here and now they're here voting Republican.

The change might be occurring but I don't see it yet.  I also refuse to lump us in with the rest of the South and I refuse to just concede defeat that we are "finished."  

There are 68 Democrats in the state house (and I disagree with PPP that we will lose this chamber in 2010).  It's split evenly, based on my definitions, between those from urban/suburban areas and those from rural areas.  Of the 34 rural areas, only seven are minority (six black, one native american).  How does that symbolized being finished?  Heck, if anything, we might lose suburban seats next year before we lose rural ones.

Our Governor is rural, as is our Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Commissioner of Insurance and Attorney General.  Our legislative leadership is rural as are half of our Congress Reps.  

We're not Georgia - our party is vibrant across the state, not just in the urban areas.

[ Parent ]
NC-Sen: Cunningham Won't Run | 68 comments

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