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A lesson for those who bashed Bill Owens......

by: DCCyclone

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 8:39 AM EST


Last night the House passed by a 220-115 vote the big health care reform bill.  And 2 Democrats' votes demonstrate the short-sightedness of some of the people here who complain about "centrists" and "moderates" and "Blue Dogs" in open-seat House races.
DCCyclone :: A lesson for those who bashed Bill Owens......
Bill Owens of NY-23, who just beat Doug Hoffman days ago, was pilloried by a few liberals here and elsewhere as too conservative.  He was against the public option, he was too this, he was not enough that, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Well, a week before the election when he was running tight-as-a-tick in a purple district, he came out in the middle of the last campaign debate in favor of the House health care bill.  He reiterated support right after he was sworn in.  And last night he voted yes.

Meanwhile, Scott Murphy, as I recall, received only open hearts and minds on this blog earlier this year as he tried to pull off an upset win in a district similar to Owens' NY-23, as he ran tying himself to Obama.

Well, last night Murphy voted NO on Obama's biggest signature legislative effort.

This isn't a diary to bash Murphy.  Far from it.  I have no regrets about having wanted Murphy to win that special election, and I still want him to hold the seat next November.

My point is that when it comes to open-seat races and Democratic challengers to Rethug incumbents, supporting the Democrat always is the best bet.  It's foolish game-playing to hope a moderate Republican wins and somehow votes with us as much as an allegedly Blue Dog Democrat would have.

And it's even more foolish to hope someone like Doug Hoffman wins.  Thanks to Owens' victory, not only did we get a critical vote for health care, we defanged the hard right.  And we did so without discouraging them at all from attacking the likes of Charlie Crist and Mark Kirk in Republican primaries next year--they're encouraged enough from having knocked out Scozzafava.  We got the best of every world.

And President Obama and Chief of Staff Emanuel deserve credit for the setup that allowed this to happen.  It proved a critical victory in the post-election narrative after we lost with a hopeless incumbent in NJ and a terrible candidate in VA.

The moral of the story is support Democrats in elections, because in the long run that's what helps us the most.  There are exceptions, there are Liebermans out there who need to be primaried and, if they survive, maybe in extraordinary circumstances have support withheld in the general and allow a Republican to win; I easily can picture scenarios, even if very rare, when the long-term and even short-term for the party is better with that outcome.  But rare is the operative term for that kind of scenario.  By and large, supporting the Democrat gets us a lot closer to where we want to be in the House and Senate chambers.

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Open Left
Can we get a big Fist shake to Open Left on this?

I always liked Bowers when he was at MyDD and I think MyDD is really hurting since he left, but wow has Open Left gone off the tracks.  From attacking people like Owens non stop to doing nothing but complaining about the Health Care bill.

I know we have a lot of weak Democrats, and we could certainly replace some of them, but can we be positive for one day and not try and prejudge some of our own candidates?

29/D/Male/NY-01


another thing that came out of NY-23 ...
was that an Owens win may have given some wavering Dems the guts to go forward w/ voting yes ...

This is rather simplistic
I think it's equally possible that, having discovered the need to excite the Democratic base, Owens changed his tune. Of course, that's just fine with me.

Scott Murphy was likely a yes vote held in reserve, and my guess is that had leadership needed him, they could have gotten him using tried and true "catch and release."


You might be right, but that's speculation while I've got...
...an actual vote by each guy to prove my point.

What it comes down to is that we should ALMOST ALWAYS support non-incumbent Democratic nominees, the rare exceptions being those rare instances when they take very clear public positions that are anathema to us.  There were people here claiming Owens opposed the public option, he opposed this, he opposed that, all based on dubious tea leaves.  He left a lot of doors open on a lot of issues, but the fact is once you get elected to Congress you face so much pressure to vote with your party's majority that dissent just doesn't happen that often for most members from purple districts.  It happens a lot more often for members from red districts, but Owens' district is purple, and he deserved the benefit of doubt the same as Scott Murphy and so many others.

And my principle applies equally to the likes of Parker Griffith or Glenn Nye, who deserved the benefit of doubt last year.  They represent ruby red districts and much more dissent should be expected from them anyway, but the point is we didn't know how they'd really vote and what kind of public rhetoric they'd employ until they actually got to Washington.

Why some people here wouldn't give that same benefit of doubt to Bill Owens is beyond me.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Nye, maybe. Griffith, no way
And as to Owens, Democratic voters never got any input on him in a primary. We had the same problem the Republicans did, except that our guy didn't have an objectionable record, and he was better able to adapt to the circumstances. In all probability Owens could have won a democratic primary, but instead of giving the Democratic base an opportunity to get excited about him, he made noises in the other direction.  

[ Parent ]
Bill Owens was a big surprise
I think he'll do alright for this district.  The real problem is our southern delegation.  All three of our Alabama reps voted against it, even Art Davis who is from a D+30 or so district.  I guess voting against healthcare for poor people will give him a boost in his bid to be governor of one of the poorest states in the country.  The Tennessee delegation was also awful aside from the great Steve Cohen and a surprising yes vote from Phil Cooper.  North Carolina, Mississippi, Louisiana...despite that being the one state where a Republican voted yes, Melancon still had to vote no.

The problem is far more so the political culture in the South
than it is the representatives themselves. Politicians will vote for cat euthanasia if they think it will get them re-elected. They voted against the bill because so far the anti-health care argument is winning in their districts.  

[ Parent ]
Demonstrate with polling data
that health care reform, including a public option, is unpopular in their districts. The polling I've seen is overwhelmingly the OTHER way. One exception was in Nebraska, not a Southern state.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
PO is irrelavant
How many of them cited it in their statements? Not many.

[ Parent ]
Sounds like you agree with me
But perhaps you'd like to elaborate. I didn't listen to the debate, so I don't know what these schmucks cited in attempted justification of their betrayal of the working class. Please excuse my language; I feel very strongly about the right to adequate health care.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
I feel strongly, too, but I don't doubt that...
...the House bill is unpopular in these conservative districts.

There's hardly any House district-level polling data, the only such data I've seen is from Daily Kos in a few districts, such as NY-23 and I can't actually think of any others off the top of my head.

But these people know their own districts, and it makes sense to me this bill is unpopular in the overwhelming majority of districts won by McCain last year.

One mistake too many liberals make is presuming people understand what's in these bills in the first place.  They don't.  I don't care what some of these polls say, the fact is the overwhelming majority of voters don't understand at all what the "public option" is.  A lot of average voters are taking their cue simply from their favored party's leadership.  Conservative voters across the country don't understand the bills, but they're reflexively skeptical of anything Democrats want to do, and they understand Congressional Republicans are trying to stop all these bills.  So these voters oppose them on those two bases.

Now, I'm firmly convinced the reality is that if the House bill were enacted, most people would come to accept it rather quickly, and opposition would fizzle.  I think Congressional Republicans know that, too.  And the same goes for whatever bill ultimately passes the Senate.

But a lot of our House members and Senators think the lag time for that acceptance might be longer rather than shorter, and they're afraid they'll pay the price next November.

That's really one big reason why pushing hard quickly is important.  And it's why it's good the House moved and got its work done last night, sooner than anyone thought a month ago.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Cyclone kinda said it for me
I think the PO is clearly popular in a vacuum but most people don't like the actual bill. Perception is everything in politics. That has always been the paradox that most on the left either haven't understood or just ignored. The poll cherry picking has been obscene.

[ Parent ]
I think you mean Jim Cooper.


[ Parent ]
You are correct, my error n/t


[ Parent ]
Owens will "do alright for this district."
As long as the district exists; there remains a distinct possibility that when New York loses a seat in 2012 he'll be the designated victim.

[ Parent ]
Redistricting
If the dems control redistricting and all the incumbents win in 2010 do you really think they will redistrict out one of their own?  

[ Parent ]
Especially after spending over a million
to get him there.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Exactly
One of the oldies will probably retire. Unless somebody loses next year.

[ Parent ]
Rangel might retire
But there will still be a Harlem-based district.

[ Parent ]
If they don't want a house of cards
they'll have to, as things stand now. Of course, Arcuri could lose next year, and that would make things easier.  

[ Parent ]
I think they should be able
to find a way to cut out one of the GOP held seats and just strengthen a few weak Dem seats. Hell If they were really good and wanted to I think they could do a gerrymander of the year and get rid of both the GOP seats.


[ Parent ]
No chance unless GOP takes Governor or state Senate......
If Dems hold the Governorship (presumably with Cuomo) and the state Senate next November, then every Dem is safe.  I'm guessing they get rid of Peter King.  I don't think they can get rid of Christopher Lee, too tough to draw upstate in any way to erase him.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Isn't Artur Davis running for governor?
That might explain his behavior.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
It doesn't
Arthur Davis didn't vote like he did because he is running for gov, he voted that way because he is a Conservative.
I'm glad to see him out of the house after 2010. And if he wins the Gov seat, all the better.

[ Parent ]
I won't gloat for being correct
But I think Markos owes Bill Owens an apology. Not that he will get one. I mean even after Scozzafava made her endorsement Kos said it didn't matter and he didn't care who won because Owens is a "pretend" Democrat. Sometimes he has no clue.

Agree, Markos not always the sharpest knife...
...in the tool shed.

I have a lot of respect for Markos, I really do.  He's an exceptionally accomplished guy with a terrific resume:  Army vet, entrepreneur who is the most successful of the first-generation political bloggers, and of course husband and dad of 2 which is the part I can relate to.

But on judgment in elections, he's sometimes waaaaay off the tracks.

And yes, he really owes Owens an apology.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Wow, I almost thought you were describing Owens
Isn't Owens an Air Force veteran, an entrepreneur (or was that Murphy?), and a husband and father?

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

[ Parent ]
Very close......
Owens was an Air Force Captain and is a "businessman," but I never looked closely at his bio to see just what business he's in.  And I actually don't know anything about his family, although most men his age are/have been married and have kids.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Isn't he a lawyer?
Wikipedia says he is a lawyer and a professor who "specializes in business law, international law, and estate and tax law".

Apparently, he helped get businesses into the area, despite not being a businessman himself.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01


[ Parent ]

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