Here's the scenario for getting a foothold in TX

Obama wins a landslide in 2012 and we pickup districts that the Republicans never believed we could. That's pretty much it.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 19:04:43 PM UTC

I would add to that

We pickup districts we never thought we could in the Dallas-FW, San Antonio, and Houston suburbs and exurbs.  Even an Obama landslide won't make us competitive in rural white traditionally Yellow Dog Democratic areas in Texas.

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by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 19:27:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well obviously

I think a lot of this will depend on how quickly the Obama administration processes citizenship applications. Our prospects in Texas (and Georgia, incidentally) go way up when the electorate begins to look more like the population.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 19:48:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hopson is right

He wouldn't have survived 2010.  Neither will a lot of rural white Democrats in the South.  

Many people don't like the message I'm sending, but those who don't believe it will get it in November 2010.

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by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 19:28:41 PM UTC

You're awful cocky aren't you?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:04:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nowhere near as much as you

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by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:34:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now, now. You're both very cocky. - eom

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by: zac @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:50:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

nah

Ive been around here for awhile and while Ark can certainly sound like a know-it-all and master of politics, that's usually because he knows what he is talking about.

You, however, sound like a master of politics based off of predictions that we wont see if they are true or not for a year.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 07:42:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

which I guess is me saying

if you turn out correct in 2010 and white Dems in the South get clobbered, you will have earned your stripes to get to be a know-it-all  ;)

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by: Andrew @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 07:43:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Read my post below

I'm offering a bet.

I've listed 31 seats below which are Southern/border areas.  I'm betting that we will lose at least 10 of them.  

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by: JSmith @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 16:50:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've seen both of you now

and I gotta say that JSmith, you've gotta stop trumpeting your prediction of the collapse of southern House Democrats all the time.  Sure you've got this prediction, cool.  But just don't make yourself look like a single-issue wonk.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 12:32:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've put my money where my mouth is

I'll offer the bet to anyone here.
I have given a list of 31 held Democratic seats in Congress in the South/border states, and I'm willing to bet cash that 10 or more of those seats will be won by Republicans in 2010.

I'll list the 31 again below for convenience.

MO-4
WV-1
WV-3
MD-1
VA-2
VA-5
VA-9
KY-6
TN-4
TN-6
TN-8
NC-2
NC-7
NC-8
NC-11
SC-5
FL-2
FL-8
FL-24
GA-8
GA-12
AL-2
AL-5
MS-1
MS-4
LA-3
TX-17
OK-2
AR-1
AR-2
AR-4

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by: JSmith @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 16:48:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And I don't care

and at this point I think you're pushing the issue.

(This comment shall not be taken to mean that I think or don't think any other person is pushing any other issue.)

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 17:51:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One more thing

I also have been ignoring the debates over whether Corzine is corrupt.  It seems that was an ArkDem topic.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 12:54:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There are going to be more opportunities

in the Dallas, and Houston areas to gain seats, if the trends continue.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:05:34 PM UTC

Not many seats left

Whether we take the House or not in 2010, Republicans are going to control the 2012 redistricting.

In Houston, Democrats are making goes at HD-144 (Ken Legler) and HD-138 (Dwayne Bohac). Legler is a freshman who won in a close race in 2008, he will be facing a rematch. Bohac is being investigated for ethics violations.

In Dallas, it's HD-105 (Linda Harper-Brown) in Irving. Democrats lost by 19 votes with a real loser of a candidate here in 2008.

Besides these three seats, I am not seeing any other real opportunities for offense. We may try for Dallas' 108 against Dan Branch or Denton's 64 against Crownover, but these are both real long shots (and as a Denton resident I can say the organization here is terrible). Honestly the two Houston seats are starting off as likely Republican. We got 8/10 in San Antonio, 6/6 in Austin, and 6/6 in El Paso so there's no opportunities to grow there. Fort Worth is 4/10 and one of the three seats we lost in 2008 was from there (we gained a different one at the same time).

Anyways, we're relatively tapped out right now in the urban counties, hopefully reapportionment to the urban areas will help us some going forward in the next decade.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:49:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We need to start taking shots

at GOP seats in Tarrant, Dallas, Denton, Collin, Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Travis, Williamson, and Bexar counties.

It's ok if we lose and lose badly.  But getting that organization will make a big difference in teh long run.  

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by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:59:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We need to start taking shots

at GOP seats in Tarrant, Dallas, Denton, Collin, Harris, Fort Bend, Brazoria, Travis, Williamson, and Bexar counties.

It's ok if we lose and lose badly.  But getting that organization will make a big difference in teh long run.  

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by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:59:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let's go down this list

Tarrant - Dems are 4 of 10, 1 is competitive and it's the one we lost last year
Dallas - Dems are 10 of 16, 1 is already a toss up, 2-3 are potentially competitive
Denton - Dems are 0 of 3. 2 are potentially competitive. Again Denton organization sucks. This is where reapportionment will matter though, Denton is getting a fourth seat. Do the Republicans go for a 3-1 split in 2012, or do they try 4-0 and will likely end up 2-2 by the end of the decade?
Collin - Dems are 0 of 4. See Denton analysis.
Harris - Dems are 15 of 25. Two are already competitive, a few others could be in the future
Fort Bend - Dems are 1 of 3. 1 of the 2 Rs could become competitive in the future (contains mostly Sugarland). The Dems seat has taken up almost all the African American voters
Brazoria - Dems are 0 of 2. Not happening, try a different county. Alvin, TX and Nolan Ryan are not interested, this is Ron Paul land.
Travis - Dems are 6 for 6. There's more available?
Williamson - Dems are 1 of 2, and that 1 was picked up in 2008 and contains all the city of Round Rock. The R seat is the rural stuff and additional rural counties
Bexar - Dems are 8 of 10. The 2 GOP seats are the rich millionaire homes on the north side. 1 of them is Speaker Joe Strauss, a relative moderate.

for Kicks:
Galveston - Dems are 1 of 2. I am registered in the GOP seat, it's 70% McCain, white rich people and white trailer trash people. The dem seat is minorities and white trash and was hit hardest by Hurricane Ike.

Conclusion: More can be sucked from Harris and Dallas. Tarrant will move in the next decade. Watch Denton and Collin Counties in the next several cycles. Bexar and Travis are tapped dry.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 23:48:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

Denton - Dems are 0 of 3. 2 are potentially competitive. Again Denton organization sucks. This is where reapportionment will matter though, Denton is getting a fourth seat. Do the Republicans go for a 3-1 split in 2012, or do they try 4-0 and will likely end up 2-2 by the end of the decade?

There should be a good list of potential activists from the caucus goers in 2008.  That would be a good place to start, so that the Denton organization can suck less.

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by: JSmith @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 00:03:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A good place to start . . .

New county leadership and hire some people from Dallas to come over and work for Denton.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 00:16:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In the short term

Dallas and Houston are the places where Democrats can potentially win and scrape out a narrow majority.

Over the longer term (after redistricting), you are right on Collin and Denton. The choice the GOP has is 3-1 now, or 2-2 (or maybe even more?) later. The GOP could concede another Fort Bend seat after redistricting, and if they don't, Dems will start picking off seat(s) there anyway. The population trends within Dallas and Houston should be favorable as well, and help to consolidate Democratic dominance there. There will also be another (Dem) state house seat along the border. Also, don't overlook Bell County - the only reason the Killeen seat is GOP is that it is attached to lots of rural areas, which may not last given the population growth there. And at some point, VRA Hispanic seats in places like Midland are going to have to be carved out.

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by: MattTX2 @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 01:47:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Problem with red areas of Harris CO. is...

Besides minorities and some young voters the electorate is pretty conservative and Republican. And these are straight ticket voters to boot. The Clear Lake area, for example, which is where i grew up, will be pretty solidly Republican for a while I gather. Also, i have read that Gene Green's Houston-area based Congressional district, which is latino majority, has amongst the worst turnout rates in the country. And latinos here seem to be more conservative than American latinos as a whole. So nobody should take their vote for granted, thats for sure.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 06:05:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True

You are right that there are areas of Harris County that are going to remain strongly GOP for a while (Humble, etc). But to the North and West of Houston, and in Pasadena, I don't think that is true as much.

There is definitely low turnout among Houston Hispanics, but most Hispanics will end up in new or existing Hispanic majority districts. So for the most part, their votes can't be diluted very much in white GOP districts.

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by: MattTX2 @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 18:39:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is definitely alot of latino growth

Especially in the Baytown/Pasadena area. And if the Dems can get them out to vote at a greater rate then the Dems would be much better off for it. Also, there are many young Asians (Vietnamese, Chinese, Indian, Pakistanis mainly) that I assume lean Dem (maybe not Vietnamese, though). They are very secular and quite educated...a pretty good fit for the modern Democratic Party. Also, the west Houston suburbs also have alot of moderate folks who could vote for local Dems if they are the right fit. Im talking John Culberson territory...and we all saw how his district shifted from 04 to 08. But still its a conservative area, no doubt about it. And besides places like eastern TN which have been GOP since the mid 1800s the west Houston suburbs were amongst the first areas of the south to become GOP. Itd be quite a feat to see it at least be swing territory.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:11:24 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well

the west Houston exurbs, in McCaul's district for example, are about as conservative as they come I hear. A contrast from the Austin part of McCaul's district.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:12:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bell County!

Good point, I had forgotten about that one. Ridiculously good numbers for Obama in 2008 (especially when compared to Kerry in 2004) and the seat was competitive, even when I refused to believe it was. THis one will be worth watching.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 07:23:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Excellent analysis

Thanks for it! I am guessing the Dem seat in Galveston Co. includes Galveston city and the GOP seat in the co. includes League City, Friendswood, Kemah, etc. Maybe San Leon is a part of the GOP seat...but not sure how much that vote matters anymore (as the town was almost obliterated by Ike. Seriously, almost everyone lost their homes. Although ive heard the town has been really rebuilding). I believe I mnyself am in Davis's House district. And Jackson's Senate district. Am in Seabrook, a part of Harris but bordering Galveston.

Also, where did you get your Pres. results for this House district? Id love to see them for all the TX Legislature districts.

Hopson's seat is in East Texas which may still be registered Dem but even at the local level im sure is GOP-leaning. So he, tactically, may have made the right move.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 05:57:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, Davis . . .

Thanks for bringing up my previous job, working as field coordinator for Matula, Davis opponent in 2008 (and 2006, but I wasn't involved then). I wonder if I ever knocked on your door? We kinda had to cut Seabrook loose near the end due to the storm, lots of not homes and houses were in too bad of shape to bother with campaign work.

The numbers are coming form the state house website

http://www.house.state.tx.us/m...

Click on a member, then election analysis, you'll get a nice listing for each seat. Same exists for state senators on their website. And for clarification, the GOP seat is 67% McCain, not 70%, :-P

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

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by: trowaman @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 07:27:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks!

I didnt realize they had those numbers. Very, very cool.

And I didnt talk to any campaign worker in that election...or ever, really. Although itd have been cool if you had! Also I live in an apartment...so im not sure if campaign workers do door-to-doors there unless its visiting those that are on some kind of 'voter roll'. As usually apartment dwellers around here are fiercely private. Even I am, really. Although itd be cool to talk to a campaign worker.

My dad did do door-to-door campaigning for Pete Olson. I voted for Lampson...he didnt like that but oh well ;). And unless Olson really, really messes up somehow he should be fine. I could see him making a statewide bid sometime...as this is a prominent area to be a congressmen in. As its not somewhere in the boondocks of west Texas that no one has heard of.

My area will probably be more favorable to the Dems due to the minority vote but i will say...if Obama massively de-funds NASA and the Dems go along with it...then the voters will probably remember that. As I can see alot of engineers being unemployed or getting their salaries cut because of that. Obama doesnt seem to have much of an interest in NASA, at least right now (which is understandable given all the other issues on his plate) so its possible. If the economy recovers quickly...then he may become more 'pro-NASA'. And, really, its not this area he needs to worry about politically when it comes to NASA...its the swingy Cape Canaveral area of FL. He doesnt wanna piss those voters off, thats for sure.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:24:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Third class cities

Some Texas cities didn't make your run down urban and suburban counties. Some where Obama got less than 30%.

They bring to mind the quote by a Mayor of Albuquerque a few years back, stirring up his citizens to support planned rail service. He told them, the first class cities in the West -- like Denver and Phoenix -- were building rail systems and Albuquerque needed to do the same. Otherwise, he warned, the city risked falling back to third class, like Lubbock and Amarillo.

If Hizzoner had mentioned Abilene or San Angelo, they'd have been pegged (correctly) as fourth class.

Subtract the billions of federal agricultural subsidies from this vast area and these cities would blow away. All that'd be left would be wind farms.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 03:31:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I wonder if we can do that

Subtract the billions of federal agricultural subsidies from this vast area and these cities would blow away.

These places vote Repub, and there is no Democrat representing these areas.  Why not cut off all pork and funding there?

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by: JSmith @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 03:55:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No Can Do

The agricultural small state Senators demand farm subsidies. There are enough of them to get what they want. A surprisingly large number are progressive Democrats, and it would cause civil war in the party to try to eliminate this piece of corporate welfare. Not gonna happen.

What will happen is that the truly rural counties in that sweep of the Great Plains from San Angelo to the Canadian border will continue to hollow out. Those House districts will grow ever larger as population concentrates in the cities. Nebraska is already three districts: the city of Omaha, some of its suburbs and a smaller city (Lincoln), and everything else, easily 75% of the surface area in one empty district.

The West Texas districts are similar. Each one centered on Amarillo, Lubbock, and Midland-Odessa stretches almost to I-35. When Texas gains three or four House seats after 2010, they will go to cities (counting the Valley, our own "300 suburbs in search of a city" as they say of L.A.). Those rural districts will stretch farther and thinner. Agricultural influence in the House will continue to decrease, but it will not blow away.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 06:20:36 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not talking about ending all farm subsidies

I'm talking about cutting off pork, earmarks, subsidies, etc to all heavily GOP rural areas ONLY.

If they want to spout out Jim DeMint ideology, then perhaps we should give them Jim DeMint policies.

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by: JSmith @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:38:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Even though state legislative redistricting

will be controlled by Republicans (via the Legislative Redistricting Board), wouldn't it be important for Congressional redistricting that Democrats control the State House (or at least have a working majority) to prevent what happened last time from happening again?

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by: DCal @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 18:43:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes

Though even if the GOP completely controls Congressional redistricting, some of the new Congressional seats will be Democratic. In Dallas/Fort Worth there is basically no way the GOP can avoid creating another Democratic seat - probably a VRA Hispanic seat. Houston is a closer case, and along the border they may well have to give up another VRA Hispanic seat.

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by: MattTX2 @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 19:00:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is a good thing about adding a VRA Hispanic seat in Dallas

In Congress. Because theyll probably have to take out alot of hispanics from the rapidly bluing Sessions and Merchant districts, for example. And that, in turn, will help make their districts a little bit more GOP.  

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:28:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good thing for the GOP

Meant to add ;)

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:28:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Impasse

If the Democrats control one house, it could lead to an impasse. And at least put forth a Democratic plan for redistricting that had solid legal standing. That way, in the likely event that the matter would land in court, the judges would be looking at a Democratic plan as well as the Republican. That could make it easier for the court to fashion a reasonably fair plan.

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by: WoodyNYC @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 03:36:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Replacement

I think this rule goes for all of the urbanizing Southern states: Virginia, Georgia, the Carolinas, Texas, Florida.  The key to Democratic success is no longer to win the rural, white vote.  That area of former strength is falling farther and farther away as the people there (and elsewhere) become more likely to vote from the same party down ballot as they do for President.  

Instead, the key is to replace those votes with increasing strength in the suburbs and cities and work to turn out that vote, to get those from more favorable demographics to register, etc.  Basically, the equation now is to use the cities and suburbs to go around the rural areas and exurbs.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:20:43 PM UTC

Thank you

I would just love to hammer what you said into the heads of all Democratic strategists in the South.

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by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:35:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's what happened 15 years ago

in states like Pennsylvania and New York, and it spread recently to Virginia and North Carolina (which actually has an IMO unsustainable hybrid model).

The point is that if you win the cities and the suburbs, everywhere else is frozen out.  

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by: andgarden @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:46:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The rural areas of some states may be winnable

For example see the 2008 election results in Wisconsin.  But they are very few.

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by: JSmith @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 22:50:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The midwest is strange

The suburbs of those states are often blood red. IIRC, Bush actually won metro Milwaukee in 2004 while losing the state.

I think there is a lot of demographic research to be done on all of these states. Telling the reachable from the unreachable is an important task.

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by: andgarden @ Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 23:05:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

MN, IA, WI, and MI

are strange in that many of their rural areas vote like the major cities.  The Upper Midwest was largely colonized by Scandanavians and that is easily the most socialist and communistic part of the world and that tradition surely carried on when they colonized here.  Ugh, there is a study that is extremely well-cited that divides the countries states and regions of states into three categories that span what the areas views of government and responsibility to a community are.  There is South which is largely dominated by the do it yourself mentality, the Upper Midwest is characterized as trusting government more so and having a responsibility to ensuring a high quality of life for everyone and then there is the in between category.   Damn, I wish I knew who the guy was who wrote it and where to find it, it pretty much explains why the Upper Midwest is so Democratic in the rural areas.

Which goes to why WI went 14% for Obama while like .5% for Kerry.  The major shifts in the Upper Midwest towards the Dems was in the rural areas as they came back "home" to their progressive roots.  MN only shifted 7% because a lot less of our population is based in the rural areas while WI has like half its population living in these areas.

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by: Andrew @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 08:20:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Elazar?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 08:22:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oddly, perhaps

I read an article on Wikipedia that says much of the emigration from Sweden, to America, actually comes from whats considered the 'Religious Right' area of Sweden. I forget its name but i know its in the SW part of the country. But maybe 100 years ago or so it wasnt or just wasnt out of the ordinary compared to the country as a whole.

But I do know that many suburban voters in the upper Midwest are German. The ones in those suburbs tend to be quite conservative, perhaps moreso than their rural brethren (except in central Texas, for example, where the Germans are pretty damn conservative). I would say the Polish are probably the most culturally conservative white ethnic group in America. Just my guess. The Irish maybe at least 50 years ago but probably not anymore. Although you can certainly argue those with predominantly Scots-Irish ancestry are, as many of them are concentrated in the Appalachians.

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by: HarrisCountyBrian @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:36:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Very nice explanation

My question then, why did Gore and Kerry do so poorly (or rather why did Bush do so well) in these rural areas?  Because Mondale, Dukakis, and Clinton "overperformed" in these areas, as did Obama.

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by: JSmith @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:41:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not really sure

it's not as if the rural areas were just randomly voting more Republican and is what brought down the vote margin because every area of MN at least saw a decline for the Dems in 2000 and 2004 across the state.  

The more I look at it, the more it appears to me its simply the natural swing of the election.  Obama did well all over, so Obama improved in the rural areas.

Yeah, Ive been sitting here for 30 minutes trying to figure out a better, more exciting answer and there really isnt much.  In MN, the two areas that swung pretty hard were the rural areas and the suburbs (exurbs not included in suburbs.)  The cities shifted a couple points, the exurbs shifted equally as much, but the rural areas and suburbs saw the most action.  The Minneapolis/St Paul suburbs are the quintessential Obama voters, upper middle class college educated iPhone using types while rural voters, maybe they just tapped back into their economic populist roots with the huge economic downturn?

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by: Andrew @ Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 04:06:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NC Legislature

Well in North Carolina there are still a fairly limited number of suburban seats, and they are mostly in Wake and Mecklenburg. But most seats are still in rural areas. But every Dem-trending seat and most marginal seats are in Democratic hands, along with plenty of GOP-leaning seats. I think that we will be fine in next year's elections in NC because of the fact that most incumbents are entrenched well enough and there is strong organization in the state and local parties.  

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by: possumtracker1991 @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 00:21:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ugh

This makes it harder (maybe impossible) to take back the house. Yes, the rural areas are all going GOP. There's an ongoing trend dividing Texas politically on the basis of urban/suburban vs. rural/exurban, with the exurbs and the rural areas GOP, the cities Democratic, and the suburbs increasingly competitive/lean Democratic. In the short term the only "good" news is there are at most about 5 rural Dems left, so we can't go down much further. But in the longer run, let the GOP have the rural areas (aside from the border). That's not where the people are, and it's not the future.

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by: MattTX2 @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 01:36:51 AM UTC

and to clarify

and make your point stronger, these areas are also not where the main source of population growth is going to.  

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by: Andrew @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 08:21:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

2010 tx house

So I guess we're really looking at a 72-78 makeup? If we also count Farabee's Wichita Falls seat as a probable loss? So we need a net gain of four.

So if our prime targets are Harper-Brown (Dallas), Legler (Harris) and Bohac (Harris), what is a possible fourth? What about Todd Hunter in Corpus Christi? Any chance Todd Smith in Tarrant Co. could pull a Kirk England and switch? I wish we could find credible candidates in a few Central Texas districts, even if chances are slim. Kleinschmidt (Bastrop-anchored) and Sheffield (Bell Co.) are both going up for their first re-election campaigns and then Gattis (Williamson Co.) and possibly Fred Brown (Brazos Co.) both will be leaving vacant seats. Of our freshmen, I'm most concerned about Miklos and Thibaut, pretty confident about Chris Turner and Moody.

I sure as hell hope Heflin, McReynolds, Homer and Frost stay put.

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by: Anesthetic @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 03:11:51 AM UTC

So basically this is similar to Specter switching to our side.

Speaking of which, I know Sestak is primarying him, and I'm not endorsing either of them, but I just want the netroots to treat both of them with respect.

In particular, I'm not a fan of Senate Guru's dissing Specter.  Because if we end up with him as our nominee, I don't want to see us lose that seat only because people are unenthusiastic about him from primary-time infighting.  It's a freakin' Senate seat; it's pretty important.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

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by: Glenn Magus Harvey @ Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 21:59:03 PM UTC

Specter is the one of the best negative campaigners

out there, along with Barbara Boxer.  Their negative attacks are exemplary, and other Democrats should watch and take notes, especially Dodd, Reid, and Lincoln.

We aren't going to lose the Pennsylvania Senate seat no matter who wins the primary.  

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by: JSmith @ Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 01:03:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]