Google Ads


Site Stats

Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 5

by: James L.

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 2:57 AM EST


Team SSP is calling it a night, but we'll put up one last open thread for all you night owls and early-risers. Feel free free to have at it in the comments, either discussing results from your favorite downballot race that we failed to notice tonight, or to engage in that time-honored swingnut pastime of telling us What It All Means.
James L. :: Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 5
Tags: (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 5 | 67 comments
"It All" means everything.
Okay, enough pun snarking.  In other news,...

* NJ-Gov: Seems like polls were about right in predicting a narrow Christie victory.

* VA-Gov: What the hell went wrong here?  He was supposed to be the BEST of the three candidates.

* NY-23: Dewey defeated Truman again, I see.

* ME-Q1: This is the only one that I've found disappointing, apart from miscellaneous downballot losses.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Yeah
Survey USA again. All three Dems were rubbish in Virginia.
[ Parent ]
Yep.
they had McDonnell winning 58%-40%, and it looks like he won 59%-41%, so each one picked up a point from the undecideds.  Pretty damn good job from SurveyUSA there.

They did overestimate Daggett's support in New Jersey, but did predict Christie to win by 3% (looks like he won by 4%).

I was more surprised at how close they got Bloomberg's re-elect with only 52% (looks like he got 51%), which at the time probably seemed too low for most people.

And even in CA-10, which most people ignored, they had Garamendi winning 50%-40%, with 4% undecided and 6% going to 3rd parties.  Well, tack on 2% to each guy, and a bit more from the 3rd party vote, and you get the final 53%-42.7%.

They even got the winner in the St. Petersburg, FL, mayoral race.

[ Parent ]
The only reason I had any hope at all this week
was because I thought there was some systemic problem with polling over Halloween. It turns out that the only crappy poll (NY-23) was the one that drew me to the wrong conclusion.

As for Maine: in all honesty, I decided that we were going to lose that one as soon as Markos released his first R2K of it a few months ago. It hurts more than anything else.  

[ Parent ]
Agreed about Maine
I was wishfully optimistic but deep down, I didnt think we'd win it.

We're probably a couple years away before blue states like ME, CA, WA, NH, etc. will vote for gay marriage.  

The gay marriage movement needs to focus on states where a vote wont occur without legislative approval so that there is no chance of it being voted down once legislated.

[ Parent ]
Youth turnout
In Virginia, the youth vote (I think under-35s is the official demographic) plunged from about 22% of the electorate to 9%. Old people jumped up by a similar amount.

I'd expect it dropped similarly in Maine. And who are the most gay-friendly voters? Young people are, regardless of their race, religion or whatever....

So ergo, get young people to the polls and gay rights are more likely to be approved.

But um yeah, not putting people's rights to a referendum is a good idea, too.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

[ Parent ]
Also, Palin looks increasingly like an idiot.
Oh wait, she already was one.  It's just the luster coming off.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
What It Means?
Rich People get Roll'd!

Corzine, Hoffman, Brown (HOU Mayor), and Blommie (almost)

BTW, what was Jimmie Fallon doing on stage behind Bloomberg during the acceptance speech? I never liked that guy who ruins his sketches by laughing at the camera. The Roots can stay on Late Night, though.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

Fallon is unwatchable
Ferguson's a genius though.
[ Parent ]
Bloomie
In the case of Bloomie its as if some people voted against him precisely because he spent all that money. i mean its a mayoral race not the Presidential race. Along with getting rid of the term limits alot of voters probably felt too nauseated to vote for him.
[ Parent ]
Maine heartbreak
I don't know what to make of this.
I was in Maine three weeks ago, in Bar Harbor, and while I was there, I helped out on No on 1. They were incredibly optimistic.

But when I talked to people, there was a problem. For those (and there weren't many) who supporting the rejection of the law, they couldn't wait to vote and couldn't wait to tell me how much they couldn't wait to vote. For those who opposed it, I can count on my fingers the number of them for whom voting to upheld marriage equality was even on their radar screen. There was a big enthusiasm gap among voters. On top of that, most of the people I talked to who were supporting marriage equality were annoyed with my calls or with my stopping them in the street. One person even snapped at me saying "If I hear from you people one more time, I'm going to vote yes. This isn't a big deal for me either way you know"

Still, there was countless No on 1 signs all over Mount Desert Island. I thought to myself 'Yes has no ground game here, No is going to win"

Then on my way back to New York, I took the scenic coastal route, driving through Bucksport, Searsport, Boothbay Harbor, Belfast, Camden and then on to Augusta...Yes on 1 signs outnumbered No signs 5-1 on the ride home. They had a huge presence off the island. My heart sunk, my optimisim faded.

In the end, civil rights coem through when the people who need them fight for them, but gays are such a small part of the population, they have a hard time winning battles against the straight majority, who either oppose their rights or are indifferent. The latter is the problem. How do you get indifferent people to come out and get enthusiastic about something that bears no effect on them whatsoever?

Until we solve that riddle, we will not win.    

Republican signs seemed to outnumber Democratic signs in my town
for the parts of town that I saw, at least.  And the Democrats still won a new majority.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
That's the problem in general with politics
People have stopped caring about their fellow neighbors and if it doesnt affect them, they dont give a shit and wont bother to participate.

At my undergrad, we had a series of incidents both with hate crimes and with administrative decisions that were all one giant step back.  The group of us who got together to make people aware and try to make our school more inclusive all had the same problem.  How do you get people to become more inclusive and accepting of others when the people who show up at the multi-cultural events are all the same people sitting around brainstorming how to make the school more inclusive.

And if we managed to get 100% of the people out to vote in Maine, it wouldve failed.  So many of those, I dont care it doesnt affect me, people who didnt bother to vote wouldve voted, no keep gay marriage it doesnt affect me.

We need to make sure this doesnt translate to 2010.

[ Parent ]
That's why we have courts and a constitution.
The rights of small minorities are supposed to be ensured by the courts.  Civil rights for African-Americans was won almost entirely through the courts -- although the US Congress did play a large role in what became a fight between regions.

But desegregation of schools, at the beginning of the fight, and desegregation of marriage, at the end, were only winnable in the courts.  We have explicitly defined constitutional rights because small minorities are vulnerable to large majorities at the ballot box.

And Lawrence v Texas was important, and the courts have acted in Mass and Iowa and CT and VT and CA.  They've not been entirely absent.  But they are the formal remedy for tyranny of the majority.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Red State on NY-23
It's just truly amazing.  They are incapable of learning.  On the one hand, no matter what the result, the conclusion is always the same.  But the better way to look at it is, doing the same looney thing over and over and expecting a different result the next time you do it is the definition of insanity.

God bless the lil' buggers.

Incapable of Learning
Within the span of three years...

MI-07, '06-'08: CfG funds successful Repulican primary challenge of Tim Walberg against moderate incumbent Rep. Joe Schwarz. Schwarz endorses Democratic rival. Walberg loses.

MD-01, '08: CfG funds successful Republican primary challenge of Andy Harris against moderate incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest. Gilchrest endorses Democratic rival. Harris loses.

NY-23, '09: CfG funds successful (de-facto) Republican primary challenge of Doug Hoffman against moderate incumbent (candidate) Dede Scozzafava. Scozzafava endorses Democratic rival. Hoffman loses.

Seriously, we should be grateful B.F. Skinner chose rats for his experiments instead of these people.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Bill Sali?
And I think there are a few more...

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Sali ever so slightly deviated from the formula
insofar as he won a fairly crowded primary, whereas the others I mentioned took on one-on-one establishment GOP candidates - two of whom were sitting incumbents - and subsequently lost races that would have otherwise almost certainly been safe Republican holds.

But yes, Sali's otherwise a perfect example of the wingnuts rallying behind a guy just a shade too crazy for even the most reliably conservative of voters.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Don't forget Specter.
PA-Sen '04, '10: CfG funds primary challenge of Pat Toomey against moderate incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter.  Polling shows primary challenge will succeed, so Specter becomes Democratic rival.  (Toomey loses.)

A variation, I know, but a good one.

So: how do folks think Crist would do against Kendrick Meek in a Democratic primary next year?

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Exactly
I remembered the PA example right after leaving that comment (it probably should have been the most obvious, given the fact that Pat Toomey was the head of CfG). They already cost the Republicans a Senate seat, and the election hasn't even happened yet.

Vis a vis Florida, its an interesting scenario that you raise - I think that it would probably closely mirror what's going on in Pennsylvania, except Meek might actually have a better chance than Sestak because there's, to my understanding, no machine backing Crist comparable to that enjoyed by Specter.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
the lead blogger at The Iowa Republican
is saying that the county chairs screwed up by picking Scozzafava. He claims that if Hoffman had been selected as the GOP candidate in the first place, he would have carried the district.

One moderate Republican is doing battle in the comment thread, but it seems most wingnuts simply can't understand the concept of "good fit for the district."

[ Parent ]
Whatever they need to say to keep themselves motivated to primary Crist and Greyson, let them keep talking.
I can't wait to see the disproportionately crazy and politically active choosing candidates for Republicans in 2010.  
[ Parent ]
looking forward to that as well, but...
Can Trey Grayson be accurately (or Palinista-level accurately) portrayed as Moderate? If so, he could have to face the wrath of CfG.  As a SOS, I expect he hasn't taken public stands that are right/left to any degree.

Of course, Rand Paul is fundraising and polling well, so it may not matter.

Rubio would have been MORE emboldened with a Hoffman victory, so that is the downside of Owens winning.  All things considered i wish it would have been a smaller Owens victory, to encourage more primary challenges in the GOP. Nevertheless, I think Rubio gains overall fom NY-23.

   

[ Parent ]
Perhaps she was too moderate
for the GOP voters to handle, given that they could always give their vote to the Conservative. But Hoffman is still too conservative. They could have found someone who was more conservative than her but much less so than Hoffman. To appease both the moderate/liberal wing and the ultra-conservative wing. Someone whos a mainstream conservative, basically. Well at least i think the hardcore conservative wing would be appeased.  
[ Parent ]
Winning NY-23
is pretty much the only thing that made my entire day yesterday.  I had the worst day of law school yesterday (and am subsequently looking into the PhD program for poli sci now at the U of Minnesota, fabulous program ranking really high) and then Maine but when it comes down to it, winning NY-23 made my entire day yesterday.

Now THIS is the exact result we wanted everyone.  There was no need to hope for Hoffman to win because the result and chain of events we got were the absolutely perfect combination to A. Win us the seat and B. Tear the GOP apart.

[ Parent ]
I agree
My desire to see Hoffman win was eliminated late last week when it was clear that Dede was going to be in a distant third and the GOP was being shattered over this race.  
[ Parent ]
Erickson actually believes that Owens is anti-PO
Little did they know that Owens came out for the PO in the Syracuse debate!
[ Parent ]
Owens on the PO yesterday.
"Sounds fair."  I'll call that a yes.  We just got ourselves two yeses on the PO whip count yesterday and no doubt on many other agenda items.

Christie in NJ is just gridlock for four years, and to a lesser extent McDonnell is too as long as D's can keep the bare majority in the Senate.

The worst setback was in Maine, but we live to fight another day on that.  Maine will soon get there and stay there on gay marriage.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Maine
I'm really not terribly surprised. Maine is the New England state least affected by outside immigration from other, more urban states, so their politics are way more traditionalist than one might expect for New England in the early 21st century. Sure, they voted for pot and taxes, but those are two things ingrained in their political tradition, like voting for two so-called moderate Republican Senators in an era when New England moderates are basically dead and gone. Unfortunately, homophobia is also a very ingrained part of Maine traditional culture, and being as rural as it is, it's going to take a lot of time before that changes. (I've known too many old Truman Democrats from Maine who hated the modern GOP but were also bigoted as all hell against not only homosexuality but black people as well.)

Oh well. At least we exploded some Texas tea/carpetbagger heads in NY-23, Christie is almost certainly a one-term Governor, Constantine won King County Executive, and I-1033 crashed and burned. ME-Init does sting a little, and my condolences definitely go out to any SSP'ers who live in Virginia, but other than that, it could've been much worse.  

unfortunately
The Maine result has excited Iowa Republicans and will make it harder to Democrats to hold the line here against a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage.

I wouldn't bet on Christie being a one-term governor. There are a lot of advantages to incumbency.

[ Parent ]
Incumbency as a major advantage?
Tell that to Jon Corzine.

Given the partisan dynamics of New Jersey, and how deeply unpopular he is likely to be with almost 50% of the state's electorate right off the bat, Christie has "one term" written all over him.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Christie Todd Whitman made it to a second term.
Fours years is too far off to make any kind of conjecture on this.
[ Parent ]
Did Whitman start out with the same kind of sky-high negatives as Christie?
n/t

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
I would bet on
Christie being a one-term governor.  While there can be advantages to incumbency, the Dem bench in NJ is strong enough to knock out Christie even in an average to sub-par environment for Dems.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Vriginia
I remember a few months ago when I posted a comment saying how terrible the VA-Gov race was going because of all the focus on scandals and past transgressions instead of discussing the real issues, and I was universally mocked for my opinion by the people here saying I didn't understand the realm of electoral politics.

Looking at McDonnell's blowout last night, I feel somewhat vindicated that I was right. Deeds' focus on McDonnell's 20 year old thesis made his campaign one of the lousiest in recent memory. McDonnell coyily played his conservative credentials to one crowd and posed as a moderate to another crowd, and he focused on issues like transportation and health care. Looking at Deeds and the low voter turnout, I'm not sure his own supporters voted for him. In comparison to Obama's campaign, Deeds was a dud. There was nothing to inspire voters to come out and vote for him, even inserting Obama last minute didn't work. In retrospect, Terry McAuliffe may have done better; at least I know that guy is charismatic.

It's ironic that Obama, the leader of the Democrats, brought in a new way of campaign which works that other Democrats did not embrace. Instead, they choose to fall back on the old way of division and negativity. Oh well...

Notes on Virginia
1. Anti-incumbent mood

Of the nine (potentially ten) seats that changed hands last night, only one of them was an open seat. Two vulnerable open seats in Fairfax were held by the Democrats despite the losses among the current delegation.

2. Death of the SWVA Democrat

Dan Bowling (D) won a special election in the 3rd district in 2006 by a 60-28-9 margin. The 3rd district had voted for Deeds by a 6-point margin, which (obviously) was not the case. Bowling apparently thought he could cruise to re-election, but the Republicans realized his weakness, and outspent him 2-1, leading to a crushing 14-point loss. The two Democratic Delegates left in SWVA, Bud Phillips of the 2nd and Joe Johnson of the 4th, would likely have gone down as well had the Republicans recruited strong challengers. Republicans will be fools not to contest these two races in 2011.

3. It could have been worse

In the 10th, House Minority Leader Ward Armstrong (D) held off a challenge by a complete unknown by only a 57-43 margin. A stronger Republican here could easily have knocked him off.

In the 12th, Jim Shuler (D) held off a nobody Independent (who literally spent no money) by a 66-34 margin. Who knows what a Republican could have done here. Granted, this district is one of the few where Deeds would have had coattails -- it's Deeds' old House district, and it stretches from Blacksburg up to Bath County.

In the 41st, two-term incumbent Dave Marsden (D) held off Republican Kerry Bolognese, who Marsden outspent 4-1, by just over 200 votes.

Democrats picked up the 52nd district, which the Republicans had essentially conceded up until late September, when it became apparent that they still had a chance here. A last-minute flood of money to Republican Rafael Lopez was not enough to salvage a win here, and Luke Torian (D), who had been a heavy favorite the entire race, limped across the finish line with a 52-48 margin. Had the Republicans invested here earlier, they could have held the seat.

Similarly, Republicans more or less gave up on the 87th, where Paula Miller (D) basically had little challenge from John Amiral (R), despite Amiral dumping a bunch of his own money into the race at the last minute. Her 57-43 victory is her largest margin of victory since she was elected in 2004.

Finally, in the 99th, Al Pollard (D) scraped by teabagger favorite Catherine Crabill (R), who raised only $11,000 and was so polarizing, when she was nominated, at least one county's Republican delegation voted to have no nominee. A serious Republican challenge would probably have won here, and look for Pollard to be on the top of the Republicans' hit list in 2011.

4. Don't take the suburbs for granted

After 2008, many Democrats were crowing about how Northern Virginia had turned irrevocably blue. This is not the case. McDonnell won big in Loudoun and Prince William, and now Luke Torian is the only Democratic Delegate that represents part of either of those counties. Prince William incumbent Paul Nichols lost, as well as Loudoun incumbent Dave Poisson. Chuck Caputo, whose district is mostly in western Fairfax but has a little of Loudoun, also lost.

5. Wasted money

Democrats spent over a quarter million dollars targeting Bob Marshall, who ended up winning with over 60% of the vote.

Over $100,000 was spent trying to defeat Danny Marshall. He won 64-36.

In the 42nd, the Democrats spent over $400,000 to defeat Dave Albo. He won 57-43.

Democrats gave nearly $100,000 in Jeannette Rishell's quixotic third bid to beat Jackson Miller in the 50th district. She lost by 25 points.

I never understood why Democrats were up on Thomas Shields' chances in the 73rd. They gave him over $100,000. He lost 62-38.

GOD DAMN IT!
How long did I talk about Dagget's supporting falling and being well below double digits?  This entire time.  And then I go and predict 11% for him in the predictions thread because I wouldve stuck out like a sore thumb otherwise with my predictions.

damn damn damn.  

Speaking of predictions
I know many of us were feeling pretty pessimistic about Nov. 3rd, and there were plenty of predictions thrown out there that Democrats might go 1 - or even 0 - for 4.

But did anyone think that our 1 out of 4 would be Bill freakin' Owens? It wouldn't surprise me at all if nobody won a babka this year...  

Male, 23, DC-At Large

I predicted an Owens victory
but thought Corzine would also pull it out, as well as marriage in Maine based on Nate Silver's state/time-passage projections. We definitely could have easily been 0-4, but also 2-2 if things had gone a little differently, for example Corey Booker running instead of Corzine.
[ Parent ]
Owens was ahead in every legitimate poll
while Corzine and Deeds were almost always behind.  Garamendi was always ahead.

In the four major races last night, there was nothing surprising compared to the legitmate polls leading up to the election.

[ Parent ]
Another thing I noticed
The Democrats that supported Obama's agenda, like on health care reform, won. While the Democrat that distanced himself from Obama, lost. (Corzine is a different matter because he was an incumbent unlike Owens, Garamendi, and Deeds, and had all sorts of issues on his own.)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Hoffman was ahead in the final Siena poll
n/t

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Nevertheless, I could see an Owens victory from the final Siena poll
as it was taken before the Scozzfava endorsement - but had her remaining support as 2/3 lib/mod, ref http://www.swingstateproject.c...

though I wasn't sure until I saw the Clinton Co numbers come in....

[ Parent ]
Virginia State Senate
Democrats at least still control the Virginia State Senate (although with the almost switch of one Democrat earlier who knows what might happen after yesterday's election).

If Democrats can take Cuccinelli's open senate seat...

We only lost it by 92 votes in 2007.

Ralph Northam
I've been hearing that Northam, the would-be party-switcher, is not looking to run for a second term. Not surprising, considering the near-clusterfuck that he created for the Democrats. Lynwood Lewis, the Eastern Shore's Delegate (who, unlike most Democrats last night, won by a large margin), is the most likely successor for the seat.

I'm not sure who the Democrats are going to run for Cuccinelli's Senate seat. Most of the district's area overlaps with the 41st, 67th, and 86th districts -- Marsden barely survived in the 41st, Caputo went down in the 67th, and the 86th is held by a Republican, Tim Hugo (who can't run unless he moves, thankfully, because he lives in Clifton, which is outside the district). There's talk of David Bulova running -- his district overlaps with Cuccinelli's by 2 precincts, but he lives in one of them.

On the other side, all three of the Republican County Supervisors have districts that overlap with the Senate district; I wouldn't be surprised if Sully District Supervisor Michael Frey ran. Springfield District Supervisor Pat Herrity is also another possibility. (The third was just elected this year in a special election, so I'd say he's unlikely to run.)

[ Parent ]
Kathy Smith
What about Kathy Smith, a Fairfax County School Board member from the Sully District?  I believe she's currently the chairman of the Fairfax County School Board.

She actually ran ahead of both now-former Delegate Chuck Caputo and senate candidate Janet Oleszek in 2007.

[ Parent ]
I can only find some solace from last night
if I ignore my home state of Pennsylvania.

Joan Orie Melvin won the state supreme court race, giving Republicans a 4-3 majority and overturning the 4-3 majority that Democrats had just won two years ago. I believe that prior to 2007, Republicans had held a majority on the state supreme court for awhile. I can only hope that somehow the state legislature decides to sidestep a fight and goes for incumbent protection to ensure a Republican state senate and Democratic state house, a la the old New York.

There were four open seats on the superior court (the higher of two intermediate courts). Republicans won 3 of 4 seats. I am not sure of the superior court's partisan makeup. On a slight positive note, one of the Republicans who won was supported by labor and education groups, so she certainly could've been worse.

There were two open seats on the commonwealth court (the lower of the intermediate courts). Republicans won both seats, including a women who played "Battle Hymn of the Republic" on her campaign page and bolded the words "one nation under God" and "judicial activism." **barfs**

Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahl won re-election against weak opponents. While this became a forgone conclusion once his two independent opponents started attacking one another, it further added to my embarrassment when piled on top of who else won last night. The bonus for Luke: his mom promised to take him out for ice cream if he won.

Even in my local borough, the first Democratic mayor in decades (elected in 2005) was ousted by the previous mayor (who had retired in 2005) who gave his supporters deceptive "Re-elect" mayoral signs (which led to both mayoral candidates appearing to be the incumbent) and send out scary letters claiming that "dark clouds" had been forming over our hallowed community for the past four years. The final vote wasn't even close, as our current mayor, who has been excellent with public works projects and hasn't raised taxes, was ousted by 20 points. I liked our previous mayor, but his change of heart regarding his retirement was disconcerting, considering how low he felt he had to stoop in a freaking local race. Also, a borough council incumbent was ousted in favor of a guy who just gave me really bad vibes...something about his eyes. The current seven-member council (I believe officially 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans, but the council wasn't really partisan) was quoted multiple times as saying how well they all got along with each other and how much more effective they felt they'd been in the last several years, so hopefully the new guy doesn't greatly change the dynamic.

I take heart in Chapel Hill electing its first openly gay mayor, especially so because I will be moving to the Research Triangle in a few years. I take heart in Charlotte once again having a Democratic mayor. I obviously take heart in NY-23, as well as DeDe Scozzafava's likely entry into the Democratic fold. Washington's likely quasi-gay marriage victory is also encouraging, to an extent. However, I honestly have had to perform mental jujitsu to separate my local and state races from the rest of the country in order to stay positive.

I don't know what happened
in the Philly suburbs last night.  It seemed like the clock was turned back 15 years and the huge Democratic shift in the Philly suburbs never happened.

And the Philly turnout was really awful.  When Joan Orie Melvin lost in 2003, she lost Philly by 217 K votes.  Yesterday, while she lost Philly by the same percentage as in 2003, she lost by just 68K votes.  

[ Parent ]
I was pleasantly surprised by Charlotte ..
I had even predicted a GOP victory.  First Democrat mayor in 22 years. This once GOP stronghold is very blue these days.

That certainly has to encourage Etheridge to run against Burr.  That race REALLY needs to get some focus by the DSCC.

I don't know a lot about Elaine Marshall, but SOS don't tend to be great candidates for Federal office, in my experience. Plus she has some age on her.  Maybe she can do it, but we need a strong contender in there.

[ Parent ]
NYTimes releases NJ/VA/NYC exit polling...
http://www.nytimes.com/interac...

So, this is apparently how Thompson kept this thing close...
- Democrats came home (Thompson +14).
- He ran much better-than-expected among blacks (T +53) and Hispanics (T +12).
- He kept Bloomberg from running away with self-described moderates (B +8), while holding down a strong majority of liberals (T + 12).
- More voters felt Bloomberg attacked unfairly than Thompson did.
- Thompson garnered 25% of voters who approve of Bloomberg, while Bloomberg carried only 9% of voters who disapprove of his performance.
- Thompson carried voters who approve of President Obama (T +7).

Thompson carried The Bronx (+23) and Brooklyn (+5). Bloomberg carried Manhattan (+15), and for some reason, the NYTimes polling couples Queens and Staten Island, where on average Bloomy had a 15% advantage.

Some other interesting stats...
- Bloomberg won among gay voters (B +3).
- Nearly 1/3 of New Yorkers still consider Bloomberg a Republican.
- The Jewish vote is still safely in Bloomberg's court (B +53).
- A 12-point gender gap in support for the candidates (Men T +1, Women B +11).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Is that right?
Men voted for Thompson, Women for Bloomberg?

I don't believe it.  

[ Parent ]
An observation about New Jersey
If Corzine had managed to get the vote of every person who voted in the 2008 Presidential primary, he would have been in the lead by a few hundred votes (at 99% reporting).  
Sorry, that just includes the Hillary and Obama voters
and in the 15k Edwards votes, and he would have won. Of course, NJ didn't have a closed primary, so woulda, coulda, shoulda.  
[ Parent ]
NYC Mayor
Rep Weiner correctly suggested last night that perhaps Obama should've spent some time on Thompson instead of Corzine.  To this, a white house official responded, ""Maybe Anthony Weiner should have manned-up and run against Michael Bloomberg."  

Way to man up and take responsibility for dropping the ball.  Seriously, if the WH spend a tenth of the energy they dedicate to bullying liberals in congress on conservadems, they might actually accomplish something.  

Very disgusting admin comment
What a bunch of wankers.
[ Parent ]
Weiner's response
makes me think that it came from Rhambo himself.
[ Parent ]
The White House Administration
Is not a bunch of wankers and theyre right, Weiner should of ran instead of tip toeing around it for how long. Your dead wrong on that comment James.
[ Parent ]
And no James
The administration isn't a bunch of wankers. Weiners compaining about them in the NYC race and their right by saying that he should of gotten into the race. By doing that I think alot of prominent Dems would put alot of effort into winning that Mayoral because they would of had a strong well known candidate in Weiner running. It's as simple as that.
[ Parent ]
But he didn't
And they didn't consider Bill Thompson a strong candidate so that's why they didicated their resources to other races. I mean I know i'm beating a dead horse by saying all this but it angers me when people call the WH wankers and Obama is a bully to liberals just because he didn't get into the mayoral race. He saw the polls, he thought the race was a dud and that's it. Everyone was shocked by how little Bloombo won. It's probally a suprise to the WH as well.
[ Parent ]
I agree with the WH
Weiner's my Congressman and I knew him pretty well. He chickened out because he didn't want to lose to Bloomberg. He could've beat him. He should be bashing his head against a wall today.  
[ Parent ]
WTF good would that have done?
What political or other benefit would Obama or the Democrats have gained, by replacing a liberal independent with demonstrated competence, with someone with a D after their name.  

Would you prefer a 1-3 record instead of 1-2 last night? Monday morning quarterbacking anyone?

Gimme a break.  

[ Parent ]
Yeah seriously
And yes a strong case of monday morning quaterback to boot.
[ Parent ]
I think he would of preferred the 1-3
Just to prove a point.
[ Parent ]
There right if you don't want to admit
Maybe if they would of gotten a more strong candidate in there like Weiner maybe they would of put some muscle but since Weiner decided not to run depite all the tip toeing about it it did. Your anger towards Obama and bullying and the NYC race is literally not necessary.
[ Parent ]
Good
Weiner should be ashamed of himself for being such a chickenshit.

He could've helped keep a Democratic candidate for City Council in his district who lost to a Republican.

[ Parent ]
I couldn't of agree more
With this and the other comment you wrote about this above. Weiner should be complaining at the WH for what they said because they were right. For months he was debateing on whatever to jump into the race and he was scared to do you. And because of that look what get: Four More years of Mayor Mike. You couldn't of changed that Congressman but choosed not to.
[ Parent ]
Correction
It should read: Weiner SHOULDN'T be complaining at the WH for what they said because were right. Typo.
[ Parent ]
Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 5 | 67 comments

Copyright 2003-2010 Swing State Project LLC

Primary Sponsor

You're not running for second place. Is your website? See why Campaign Engine is ranked #1 in software and support among Progressive-only Internet firms. http://www.mediamezcla.com/

Menu

Make a New Account

Username:

Password:



Forget your username or password?

About the Site

Publisher: DavidNYC

Senior Editor: James L.

Senior Editor: Crisitunity

Contributing Editor: Jeffmd

Search the SSP archives:

Sign up to receive a daily e-mail whenever the SSP is updated:

SSP Resources

Presidential Vote by CD

SSP Document Collection

Race Tracker Wiki

Dave's Redistricting App

Blogroll

Daily Kos Elections
DemConWatch
Five Thirty Eight
Governing
Hotline On Call
Political Wire
Pollster.com
Prop*50
Public Policy Polling
The Thicket
Powered by: SoapBlox