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Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 4

by: Crisitunity

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 12:04 AM EST


2:50PM: Well, at some point in the last half hour or so, CA-10 got called in favor of John Garamendi. With not much else left to talk about, we'll wrap it up here. A disappointing night on the balance, although certainly with its surprising bright spots (some of which are also hilarious and teabagger-enraging, like NY-23).
2:07AM: You're probably out there thinking, "Hey, you promised us results on the House race in Washington's LD-16!" Unfortunately, the GOP picked that one up. At about R+16 (centered on Walla Walla in eastern Washington), it was by far the reddest seat held by a Dem in the state legislature; long-time Dem Bill Grant died earlier in the year, but his daughter Laura Grant was unable to hold it against GOPer Terry Nealey, 58-42. Dems still are in firm control of the state House, 61-37.
1:57AM: If you're wondering what happened in all those legislative special elections in Georgia, TheUnknown285 tells you all about it in the diaries.
1:45AM: Assorted good news and bad news. The good news is that Tom Suozzi finally pulled it out in Nassau County, winning by 200-odd votes. The bad news is that the Dems totally dropped the ball in Michigan on that state Senate seat (SD-19, the one that Mark Schauer vacated). GOPer Mike Nofs picked it up easily, 61-34. That boosts the GOP's edge to 22-16 in the chamber, making it that much harder to flip come 2010 (a key target for redistricting purposes). Also in Michigan, Detroit mayor Dave Bing survived his re-election, although maybe by a closer margin than anticipated (58-42 against Tom Barrow). With Kevin Johnson ensconced in Sacramento, hopefully soon we can field a starting five of NBA guards turned big-city mayors. Can we get Walt Frazier to run for NYC mayor next time?
1:35AM: They're taking their sweet time in CA-10. Not that it matters. With 51% reporting, it's still Garamendi 55, Harmer 40.
1:29AM: Couple other odds and ends from Pennsylvania. Wunderkind Pittsburgh mayor Luke Ravenstahl won re-election without much trouble, getting 55% of the vote against two challengers, including Franco Harris (son of the similarly-named Steelers legend), running as an indie, who pulled in 15%. And in Harrisburg, PA, the Democrat, Linda Thompson won a contested race, 55-45.
1:21AM: The AP now seems to be calling the race in Maine, for the side of evil. The numbers still are at 87% reporting, with it passing 53-47. On the plus side, it's shaping up to be a good night for pot -- Maine's Question 4, which expands medical marijuana (including state dispensaries), passed 59-41. Maine's own anti-tax TABOR-style initiative also went down to defeat, 60-40. So: Maine likes pot and taxes. Gays and lesbians, not so much.
1:09AM: Still bad news in Maine; with 86% reporting, the spread grew a tiny bit more on Question 1. "Yes" (i.e. against gay marriage) now leads 53-47.
1:06AM: This definitely calls for a ganja break. The tiny Colorado town of Breckinridge just, via initiative, legalized the possession of up to one ounce of marijuana, plus paraphernalia. 72% voted yes.
12:57AM: There's one more barnburner that wasn't on anybody's radar screen: Tom Suozzi, the Democratic Nassau County Exec (1.5 million people on Lon Gisland), is barely winning reelection. He's up 48-48, with a 400-vote margin, with 99% reporting (only 10 precincts left). If he wins, he'll owe his survival to a Constitution Party candidate sucking up votes on the right. Assuming he squeaks through (and that depends on where those last 10 precincts are... hopefully not Massapequa) this may dim his luster a bit; he was seeming likely to run for AG assuming Cuomo vacated to run for Gov.
12:45AM: Here's a hot mayor's race I don't think we've mentioned yet. Bill Foster, the more conservative option, beat Kathleen Ford 52-47 in St. Petersburg, Florida.
12:38AM: We're headed to a runoff in Houston; that was expected. City controller Annise Parker leads at 31%, and she'll face off against former city attorney Gene Locke, who got 26%.
12:33AM: You know, Chris Christie didn't seem to have much in the way of coattails. It looks like the GOP only netted one Assembly seat in New Jersey. McDonnell did a little more damage in Virginia, pulling along the LG and AG (Bolling and Kooky Cuccinelli); the net GOP gain in Virginia was 5, which seems to move the GOP's advantage in the House of Delegates to 60 (including 2 R-leaning indies) to 40. (That might be off by 1, someone correct me if I'm wrong.) (UPDATE at 1AM: NLS says it's 60-39, with one race still not called.)
12:20AM: Good news from Washington, although R-71 is still closer than I'd like. R-71 is being approved (contra the Maine initiative, 'yes' is the vote for tolerance here), 52-48. I-1033 (a TABOR-style anti-tax initiative from unstoppable initiative huckster Tim Eyman) is getting its butt kicked, 44-56. And King County Executive is staying in Democratic hands, as Dow Constantine is beating quasi-Republican Susan Hutchison 57-43. Seattle mayor, though, is paper-thin: contrary to polls, Mike McGinn is leading (he probably has lots of cellphone-only voters), but only 50-49.
12:18AM: Let's kick it west coast. In CA-10, we're only up to 29% reporting, and the numbers haven't changed much. Garamendi leads Harmer 56-40. Looks like Garamendi got most of the last minute deciders (based on that 50-40 poll). So that's two nice upgrades in the House (from McHugh to Owens, and from Tauscher to Garamendi).
12:16AM: Of course, it's all ACORN's fault.
12:15AM: More good news from the comments: Hoffman has apparently conceded in the 23rd. Thus sparing us the agony of a NY-20 style drawn-out recount process, and we won't have to wonder about those malfunctioning St. Lawrence County machines. Cue the sound of a million wingnut heads 'sploding.
12:07AM: Bad news from the comments: the Pennsylvania Supreme Court race has been called for the Republican (Jane Orie Melvin). This looks like it'll hand the advantage in state legislative redistricting to the GOP for 2010.
12:05AM: Thanks to DavidNYC for handling all the hard stuff; I'll be working the late shift and the west coast stories. Let's start the new thread with some good news. Reportedly Fox has called NY-23 for Bill Owens. Who would have ever thunk that we could pick up the 23rd at the same time as we're losing NJ-Gov?
Crisitunity :: Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 4
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Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 4 | 233 comments
Republican Wins PA Supreme Court Race
there goes redistricting
especially if Democrats lose the governorship or the state house.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
This is depressing.

Your going to have to be specific
What race is making you depressed. NJ and VA Gov, Maine?
[ Parent ]
Everything but CA-10 and NY-23 it seems

[ Parent ]
That's what I thought
Eh don't be depressed. In fact you shouldn't be suprised. Deeds was toast for months because of his shitty campaigning. Corzine's path to victory was counting on Chris Daggett and bloddying up Christie. But yeah Maine is very depressing to say the least. Don't threat though, looks like were sending two decent Dems to Congress in Garamendi and Owens, Anthony Foxx is the new mayor of Charlotte and we got a hack out of our party in Jon Corzine.
[ Parent ]
Where's the results for NY 23?
Just want to see up to date results.  

Check out Georgia's best progressive political blog
I'm Not Surprised At All About NJ-Gov....
Corzine winning was dependent upon Daggett getting double-digit support.  As it became clear in the last week that Daggett's support was slipping, I predicted Christie would have a victory of about the magnitude he did.  I am a little surprised Owens apparently pulled it off in NY-23 though.
So ironic...
 It seems both hilarious and strange that we vote on whether or not to discriminate on people, legally, based on their sexual preference. And we think we've gotten somewhere in the last two centuries fighting morality laws and censorship? Human beings are pretty much as stupid as they ever were, the problem is now we let them vote. The proletariat did a great job running ancient Athens, as we all know. Hah.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Corzine got what he deserved, more or less
It seemed like Christie rallied the last 3-4 days of the campaign and Daggett imploded, but despite the implosion his numbers were still twice as high in red counties than they were in blue ones.

Corzine just got blow out, and I can't feel bad about that, having read about his governorship for years and the corrupt Democratic party machine there blocking Corey Booker or Dick Codey from running and crushing Christie, I might have voted, heck, I would have voted for him to send a message.

AS I put it elsewhere, the choice was between an egotistical corrupt incompetent conservative who can't get along with the state legislature and an egotistical corrupt incompetent liberal who can't get along with the state legislature.

Maybe now the State Party will get the damn message.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

You can call Jon Corzine many things, but corrupt
is not one of them. But we've had this discussion before, and against all reason, you persist.  
[ Parent ]
My half completed essay on another blog
The list goes on for miles with his connections and who protected him from primary challenges and what he did to pay them back and how he scaled back campaign reforms and ended the promising state funded legislative campaign iniative that would have helped end corruption.

Anyway, here it is, though my writing and the quotes are mixed up:

   ust hours after Bergen County's longtime Democratic machine boss, Joseph Ferriero, was convicted Thursday on three federal felony corruption counts - which could land him in prison for 20 years - New Jersey's governor proudly defended having written him personal checks totaling nearly a half-million dollars.

   That's right: Corzine, the Wall Street multimillionaire, and his family have funneled no less than $441,600 of their own money to keep Ferriero's arrogant political machine rolling.

   And Corzine claims to be leading the charge of ethics reform in the state.

Stuff like this:

      New Jersey continues to have the highest property taxes, second-highest sales tax rate and third-highest top income rate in the nation. Corzine increased the sales tax from 6 cents to 7 cents, raised the top income tax rate to 10.67 percent, increased tolls on the Garden State Parkway and New Jersey Turnpike and watched as the state's unfunded liabilities - pensions, health care and debt - continued to soar.

      All states have felt the impact of the worst economic downturn in more than 70 years - as Corzine likes to remind us. But he has taken no responsibility for the state's fiscal mess, which he has made worse by rolling over for the state's public employee unions and squandering two major opportunities to rein in public salaries and benefits.

   Corzine's failures haven't been confined to fiscal matters. He has had a disappointing record on the environment, energy policy and smart-growth planning. He has tried to solve the state's transportation problems by widening its major highways rather than focusing on getting people out of their cars and into mass transit. He has failed to enact important ethics reforms, including strict limits on pay-to-play. He ended the promising experiment with publicly funded legislative campaigns. And he wants to continue wasting taxpayer dollars by expanding mandatory preschool for 3- and 4-year-olds to every district in the state - a plan temporarily slowed by the sour economy.

Then there is appointing Zulima Farber, an ethically compromised piece of trash and standing by her and denying he pressured to resign when her ethics troubles blew up in her face.

There was his huge temper tantrum when he shut down the state government rather than compromise with the Democratically controlled state legislature. Good governor's don't do that, that was his egotism and refusal to work with Democratic leaders to create a compromise plan and his approval ratings never got much higher after that.

Dick Codey would have been an amazing Governor and accomplished far more than Corzine and sweeped the floor with Christie, however the State Party Machine was never going to let him run, and for that alone I would send them a message by voting for Christie if I live in the state, and the message is: Stop controlling state politics and creating the filthy cesspool of corruption that has tarnished the Democratic party there and kept it from being a reliably 65-35 Democratic state.



Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
That's just a recitation of boilerplate Republican BS
If the worst thing you can accuse him of is watering down a good government package to assure its passage, well, that doesn't even begin to amount to corruption.
[ Parent ]
No actually it was a recitation
of virtually every newspaper in the state endorsing Christie. I'm sorry, I'm just an ultra-liberal who is not an automatic shrill for any Democrat no matter what and in some circumstances I do want messages sent.

For your information all of those endorsements were sent to me by a friend of mine in NJ who is extremely liberal himself but has a non-warped view of reality and dislikes Corzine.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Whatever
I haven't tallied up "virtually every" newspaper endorsement in the state, but the biggest one endorsed a third party candidate (after saying mostly nice things about Corzine) and the two papers with the largest readership (the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer) endorsed Corzine.
[ Parent ]
Over Christie?
That's a no brainer. I still wouldn't have voted for Corzine.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Would have held my nose and voted for Corzine.
Then yelled at the state party the next day either way.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
I want messages sent too
and I'll also support some Repubs too.
Just very different messages than you.  For example, don't bash the party or its leadership, and thus I will be donating money to the GOP opponent of Parker Griffith.
And if Harry Reid doesn't show some guts soon, I'll likely back his GOP opponent as well.
[ Parent ]
Very Good Point Smith.
And I concur. I mean if Griffith dosen't like Nancy Pelosi that's his preference, but you don't go out like that and openly bash your leader in the House like that. Hopefully he will be gone so we don't have to listen to that type of garbage again.

I think whatever you donate money or not, Reid will get the boot. He's burned too many bridges as his tenure as leader with his voters and the netroots and there sick of him and his BS. Espically the netroots.

[ Parent ]
Couldn't agree with you more
I'll give Reid one last chance on health care.  If he screws it up, he needs to go.
[ Parent ]
"Maybe now the State Party will get the damn message. "
Actually from what I read the machine in NJ were already unhappy with Corzine like George Norcross and seemed to be a bit happy if he was defeated. Guess they got there wish.

But your right about what you said about NJ-Gov. Corzine dug his own grave and Christie simply rode the wave. He had to work hard in the end, but he had the momentum. I feel bad for NJ because both of them were truely the lesser of the known evils that only did nothing but attack each other to win. Truely disgusting. Hopefully like what you said thew party will get the message and hopefully this is the last we've heard of Jon Corzine and his huge bank account.

And I think I can speak for SSP when I said I was very suprised at NY-23. But I very happy suprise though.

[ Parent ]
poor Jersey
I'm sure Christie will embarrass himself numerous times over the next four years, so at least we'll be entertained. Jersey politicians do tend to fail miserably. I just thank God I'm from Connecticut so I don't have to witness it first hand (our GOPer does nothing at all, which means little damage done).
[ Parent ]
Where in CT?
I'm from South Windsor.  I mentioned their unofficial town council results below in this thread.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Cheshire
we lost our town council tonight, or so says the rag known as the nh register
[ Parent ]
Sorry to hear that.
I assume you mean the R's took it over?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
yeah
it's always 50/50 anyway, I guess I'll just have to live and watch some new colonials go up on every piece of marginal land around town until they are defeated in two years. They seriously screwed this town up when it was staunchly republican a decade ago.
[ Parent ]
Christie
I just cant see him winning re-election. Not because NJ is "too Democratic" but because it seems ungovernable these days and Christie doesnt seem like the type of politician who could move mountains. I bet ambitious NJ Dems are already salivating at the chance of taking him on. OK Arnold won re-election in a likewise ungovernable heavily Dem/liberal state...but Angelides was basically a Corzine-esque extremely horrible candidate.
[ Parent ]
And Arnold
Is much more moderate than Christie to boot.
[ Parent ]
Christie won't win
Unless a miracle happens and he's able to pass good things despite dealing with the Dem NJ Assembly, he'll lose. Christie lost because of Corzine. I like to see what happens if he had to run againist Codey or Booker to name a few.
[ Parent ]
That's the problem
with the corrupt machine politics in New Jersey. And no, I'm not saying Corzine is corrupt (though I suspect his former business dealings at Goldman Sachs might be better not delved into too deeply), but that Norwood is corrupt. Christie is corrupt and possibly a criminal, and didn't deserve to win, but the Democratic machine did deserve to have its ass kicked.
[ Parent ]
Pan I couldn't agree with you more
It all goes back to the corrupt machine and how to win a statewide race in NJ you don't point out to what your going to do to change the state for the good, you win by simply attacking your opponent to the point where you bloodied him up so bad that the incumbent looks like a good egg compased to the oppinent. This time it didn't work.

Going back to the machine, yeah it's the problem and you want to sum up how slimy it is go back to 2008. Congressman Rob Andrews ran againist Frank Lautenberg and instead of vacating his seat the machine let his wife Camille run as a placeholder so just in case Andrews loses (which he did) he'll still be able to keep his job as a Congressman. So Andrews loses big to Lautenberg and Camille Andrews drops out as the placeholder candidate and Andrews runs for re-election and NJ-01 and wins. That sums up the corruption of the NJ machine for you.

[ Parent ]
Rush Holt might be a solid nominee
He seems like a very good-government politician.
[ Parent ]
hope Jersey likes gridlock
Democratic House/Senate, Republican Governor

should be fun, should provide opportunities for Christie to either shred his standing with the national Republicans or shred his standing with the NJ voters.

Pass good anti-corruption measures to start, then start beating him up by making him veto the most popular parts of our agenda.

[ Parent ]
Maybe Arnold can give Christie some tips.


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
impulse initatives aren't an option
so that takes one thing off the table.

But seriously, give the people a victory on the whole corruption thing, then start the battering ram on Christie. Best case scenario for Christie is national stardom, and that can be prevented.

[ Parent ]
Christie's future
If, somehow, he is a popular Gov. maybe he can win an open Senate race or against an unpopular incumbent but i cant see him winning a GOP primary. Because of that whole pro-choice thing. If Rudy couldnt do it neither could Christie. He could always flip-flop like Romney, though...
[ Parent ]
I'm not shocked at this outcome at all......
NJ-Gov was a dead heat, there's nothing surprising about the result.  Very disappointing, yes, but not surprising.  One plausible fear always was Daggett's bottom dropping out, and it did.

And the polling on NY-23 was never to be trusted.  It's an axiom too many forget that House races are very difficult to poll under ordinary circumstances.  Throw in a special election, combined with a bunch of local races on the ballot but nothing else, add in a viable 3rd-party candidate, then stir in a disastrous major-party nominee campaign that causes her to withdraw 3 days before the election, and then endorse the opposing major-party nominee the next day......and anyone thinks that can be polled?!  Don't get me wrong, Siena, Daily Kos, and PPP all did a public service and good deed by TRYING to poll the race.  But the numbers were never to be trusted except for the obvious things they taught, such as Scozzafava's irrelevance.

The big winners out of NY-23 are Owens, Democrats everywhere, President Obama, and Scozzafava herself as her endorsement is vindicated by Owens' win and she looks likely to switch parties and join the NY Assembly Democratic Caucus in the near future.  And on that last point I say:  "Welcome, DeDe, our tent really is big enough for you!"

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

Yes it is
The tent IS big enough.

But I'm most upset that a majority of people who voted in Maine seem to believe in discriminating against homosexuals. Say what you want about any of the candidates - arguments can be made - but supporting bigotry and discrimination is just plain deplorable. We clearly have far to go as a nation before we root out the last forms of accepted bigotry.

[ Parent ]
Terminology
Since this is a progressive website, and you seem to be on our side, we queer folks generally don't like to be called homosexuals.. it's on the same semantic line as the "Democrat party" or "pro-abortion." Polls show people support same sex marriage much more than gay or homosexual marriage.

but thanks for calling out the bigotry!  

[ Parent ]
Thanks for raising my consciousness on that
I didn't realize that was a disfavored word. Now I know.
[ Parent ]
Marriage Equality
   seems the best way to describe the issue. I am most disappointed about the result in Maine, which is one of my favorite eastern states. At least it was close, and demographics are in our favor over time but it still was sad to see it happen. At least this time it wasn't my home state that screwed up on the issue. I'm a straight guy with no marriage prospects but I care about equality and justice for all, including our LGBT friends. The struggle continues!
[ Parent ]
Yeah your right
Maine should be ashamed for themselves by this election by discrimating againist a group of people. California as well. Hopefully over time we can change this.

What's funny is I used to be one of those anti-gar marriage guys. I always believed that marriage was between man and a woman and how gay adoption will ruin the world. It's amazing how Prop 8 and the movie Milk can change your prospective.

[ Parent ]
Hopefully in the next time SSM is up for a vote in California
the pro-SSM side will get their act together. The campaign last year was pretty lackluster from what I've seen.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
But Maine's campaign was really awesome
I mean flawless. I was part of it for a week a few weeks ago, they really had it organized.

I guess we're not just ready yet.

[ Parent ]
Milk - great movie!
I went with my girlfriend. It gave us a lot to talk about. I saw some of Harvey Milk's populism in Barack Obama's campaign, what with Milk's remark about all the "us-es" that need something to hope for. He was a pioneering advocate for gay rights, but he was also more than that: A true progressive populist who fought for the interests of all his constituents.

Sorry for the off-topic remark; couldn't resist. :-)

[ Parent ]
Don't be Sorry
Milk was an excellent movie and i'm glad it was made so more people can know about Harvey Milk.

You know with gay marrisge on the ballot in Maine really made me think how far i've come politically. Four years ago since I graduated high school I was a real center-right Democrat. I was againist gun control, thought gay marriage was a disgrace, thought Rush Limbaugh was excellent and Barbara Boxer was a whore for what she said to Condi Rice about her not having any kids. It's amazing how liberal i've become. Now I still consider myself a centrist Dem because of my support for guns and welfare reform but I think Rush should be in jail, Barbare Boxer is wonderful and gays should be allowed to merry and adopt anywhere they please. Sorry for the off the topic remark but I wanted to share that.

[ Parent ]
I have a similar shift
I was a conservative evangelical Republican at one time, only about 8 years ago or so, and now im a moderate, socially liberal, secular Indy. Including pro-choice and pro-gay marriage. Although i dont think i was anti-gay rights even as an Evangelical. i dont recall myself ever having a problem with gay rights.  
[ Parent ]
Also wish
Maine would have passed this. If Obama were to outright come out for same sex marriage (instead of merely saying hes against certain anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives, for example) i think itd win over alot of hearts and minds. At least amongst those whom supports him. And perhaps itd have helped alot if he campaigned for this issue in Maine. I can understand him not outright coming in favor of it and campaigning in ME against the amendment...as he has alot on his plate and already has to deal with alot of decisiveness and partisanship. But i think he should because its the right thing. Doesnt make him a bad Pres. for not...just sayin he should.
[ Parent ]
Obama has already advanced gay rights somewhat
with his signing of the hate crimes legislation, and I hope and expect him to advance gay rights more by signing a legislative end to Don't Ask, Don't Tell. Less certain but even more important would be for Congress to pass the Employment Non-Discrimination Act and repeal the "Defense of Marriage" Act - both actions President Obama would gladly put his signature on.

However, I doubt the president is courageous enough to call for legalized gay marriage outright. The sad but quite evident fact is that he would not have won the 2008 election if he had spoken up in favor of same-sex marriage equality during the campaign. It's quite painfully clear that the country isn't ready for that. Therefore, activists outside of presidential politics have to be the ones to agitate for it.

Until there's either a more libertarian/liberal Supreme Court or sufficient nationwide popularity for marriage equality, we will have to continue fighting state by state.

[ Parent ]
Projecting
The sad truth is that Obama wouldn't have done it even if it wasn't politically risky. He just doesn't believe in gay marriage, even personally.  I think we like to project all our progressive hopes and dreams on the man and, while he's generally a good progressive...even in his heart, he's more conservative than we'd like.
[ Parent ]
I truly don't know
what his personal position on same-sex marriage is.

But what I do know is that it probably doesn't matter. At least according to Larry King, Senator Fulbright of Arkansas personally was strongly in favor of civil rights legislation, but he voted against it because he knew if he voted his conscience, he would have gotten drubbed at the next election. Same thing with Obama - even if he personally favors marriage equality, and I don't think any of us knows what his personal views are. I certainly am not presuming them one way or the other.

[ Parent ]
I'll look later
But I think he out-and-out said he didn't support SSM.  Everything but, yes, but not that.  
[ Parent ]
Yes, he did say that
And Fulbright publicly opposed the civil rights legislation that, according to Larry King, he privately was strongly in favor of. The point is, it doesn't really matter what a person favors in private; what matters is what they do.
[ Parent ]
That's right
What matters is what you do and not just what you said. And it's like what you said regardless of what Obama really believes on gay marriage, if he would of came out in favor of it before the election hewould lose, it's very painful for me as a american to say that but it's the truth and after what happen in California last year and Maine this year, he's definetly is not going to come out in favor of it because it does not have groundswelling support. It's a crying shame where a man could come out in favor so trival as gay marriage and get punished for it. I believe the country has made strives in support of it but it's basically what you said the country isn't ready for the President to come out in favor for it and not get punished.

I think what was painful about it is not the loss but the places of the losses. Maine, California. These are places where you would expect a pro-gay marriage referundum to pass. I can a anti gay marriage getting shot down in Texas but not Maine. Guess I was way wrong.

That said I think once healthcare gets passed that Congress and the President will get down to repealing DADT. That's where the next battle for gay rights are not that the hate crimes bill finally after how many years got passed and was signed into law recent by the President. Repeal of DADT has got the support of Obama, Congress have been holding hearing about it and has gotten support for repeal in polls and I believe after healthcare is in the books this is one of the issues that will be taken up. And when it does get repealed I think alot of gay activist will he pleased and happy towards the President, not that they are angry with him but when he does this he's going to get alot of praise from the community for finally putting an end to DADT.

[ Parent ]
I kind of disagree
Although I agree with you that he's generally a good progressive, I wouldn't call him a conservative. Moderate yes.

Regarding gay marriage. I believe personally he supports it state by state but regardless of his views because of where he is in his term and because of what happened in CA and ME he's not going to openly push for it.

But Obama has been slowly doing things to get Gays on his side like signing into law the hate crimes legislation and supporting the repeal of DADT and I believe after healthcare is finished he'll move on to that and I do believe there's support to get it done (which is probally why he's said he'll repeal it) and I do believe he'll make the gay community pleased when he does it.

And Tiger for the record I don't project all my progressive hopes and dreams onto the man, I know what he supports and what he dosen't support and i'm happy with the man on that (and his job proformance).

[ Parent ]
Overstated
I only meant he was more conservative...he's hardly a conservative.  And not all of us do, but I think there is the tendency to make leaders, especially ones we worked so damned hard to elect, into mirrors of ourselves.  Like I said, it's not universal, but I think it causes a lot of frustration when expectations aren't met.
[ Parent ]
Aside from his buying into conservative economics too much
and being too willing to support some excessive Executive Branch powers, he still seems pretty liberal to me, and more liberal than anyone I thought could win a nationwide election nowadays.

And let's remember that the President can't legislate. If the Democrats want to pass liberal legislation, they can. President Obama will sign it.

[ Parent ]
You make a very good point
Yeah I disagree with him on some of the issues you mentioned (economics and power not to mention a couple of cabinet members to sum it up to a T) but yeah aside from that he's a pretty good liberal and my expectations have been met so far. I mean your not going to agree with everything the man says and does 100 percent of the time. The same goes with anyone else you know in the world. Yes your right, the President can't create legislation, that's Congress. Sure the President can support a certain issue, push for it and sign it into law but it is Congress' job to bring a bill to life.
[ Parent ]
Thanks for clearing that up Tiger
Well as for expectations, there being met from alot of people such ss myself. And I believe that he's living up to the expectations so far in his administration. But you pretty much think that as well when you said it's not universal. and the expectations that haven't been met are coming such as DADT and healthcare. The frustation is justfied but it will end.
[ Parent ]
Actually I think he is in favor of it
he said as much in 1996...and for someone looking to end politics in the late 90's on the South Side of Chicago, I can say he wasn't coming out in favor of it because he wanted to win elections.

It's a political calculation that he has to take this position, like Fulbright with Civil Rights...it's why I can never go into politics. EVER

[ Parent ]
It's the political calculation for the most part
I mean if he came out in favor it during the election President McCain and VP Palin could very well be in office. AHHHHHHHHHHH!!!

I mean it's sad and pathetic of our country if you look at it that if someone running for President says he believes Gays should get hitched he loses but it is what it is and were making good steps in gay marrige support state by state but were a long way from a candidate running for President to take said position and not get punished for it.

[ Parent ]
Very Good Point
Under President Obame, gay rights have been advanced with the signing of the hate crimes legislation (finally) and I truely do believe that after healthcare is passed, well be moving on to DADT because not only Obama has said that he'll sign a repeal and Congress is holding hearing on it but because our country have moved to the point where were ready to get rid of it. Not to mention Obama is sllowly but stadly trying to be an friend to Gays.

Regarding gay marriage, I don't think not being coureagous has anything to do with it, far from it. Obama not going to support signing gay marriage into law outright if there's not any support for it, not after it took a nosedive in Cali in Maine. So yeah it's like what you said, until you get it passed state by state you can then push to get it passed countrywide.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
He would have lost and the nation isnt ready for it. Even though him being for it, in theory, may not affect his actual policies unless he were to have a gay marriage litmus test for judicial nominees and support a federal gay marriage bill. But obviously him being a public advocate for it would mean alot to the cause and thus make him being for it very controversial.

Its always a possibility the Supreme Court could rule in favor of gay marriage in the next decade or so. They have ruled for things, in the past, that the nation "wasnt ready for". Roe v Wade for example as well as the soon-to-be overturned death penalty ruling (if im being technically correct and it wasnt a lower court ruling that way).

I wonder if the ME courts could rule in favor of gay marriage.

[ Parent ]
Supreme Court
Have you seen who's sitting on the Court nowadays? It's a far cry from the legends who sat in on the Burger Court. Scalia just said he would have upheld Plessy v Ferguson for shitsakes! We can't let any gay law go near the Supreme Court for another quarter century.
[ Parent ]
"But obviously him being a public advocate for it would mean alot to the cause and thus make him being for it very controversial''
Right and at this point in his term him being a public advocate wouldn't be the right thing at this time. But one of the things that could make him alright in the eyes of fays is the repealing and as you've seen he supports the reapeal and Congress is holding hearing about it. I seriously ezpect after healthcare is done (BTW next week the House may be voting on the bill which is good news)that's when they'll start to bring itup. I can easily say that once it does get repeal, the gay comminity will be very pleased at President Obama at that. I think they (gay community) know there not expecting him to sign a full out gay marriage bill but there other things that can help them out as well such as the repealing of DADT and very soon they'll get your wish.
[ Parent ]
Some of my gay friends
are extremely angry with President Obama, and disinclined to give him any credit for anything having to do with gay rights. This is a post by a friend of mine on Facebook:

the couple of bills that got passed went through witho, t any help from Democratic LEADERSHIP. I should make that distinction. Democratic VOTERS generally vote on our side, when they actually bother to show up. Republicans are much better at organizing, communicating (even though mostly through lies) and getting their core constituents to ... SHOW UP. Ballot measures did not get on the ballot because of the party leadership; it was GLBT organizations that did that. The bill that got through Congress this year passed through buried in a defense budget bill that Obama had no choice but to sign. Elected Democrats and the DNC don't want anything to do with GLBT. Everyone passes the buck. Obama says talk to the Congress. Congress says its a states rights issue, etc. etc. In the meantime when we need them most they will NOT help. Why did Barack Obama allow them to use HIS VOICE in advertising campaigns for Prop 8 with no effort to refute it? There is NOTHING in HIS VOICE that says he was against taking away people's rights. There was simply a letter written by an assistant confirming he wasn't supporting Prop 8 (if you could read through all purposely confusing double and triple negatives in the statement). MILLIONS of people all over CA heard tons of robo calls last year with OBAMA'S own voice stating his position, that marriage in the U.S. should continue to discriminate. I don't live in Maine, but my understanding is the same campaign people that passed Prop 8, passed Prop 1 in Maine using the exact same tactic. And Obama and the rest of the Democratic leadership REFUSE to be involved at all. Staying silent is horrible enough, but allowing the lies to continue is even worse. Great change doesn't happen without courage in leadership. Something America has not had for too long now.

I don't agree with my friend on denying credit to the President and the Democratic Congressional leadership for the Matthew Shepard law, but his allegations about robocalls using President Obama's voice to campaign to ban same-sex marriage are very disturbing.

[ Parent ]
I think I answered your point correctly Brian

[ Parent ]
DADT
He should definitely go after DADT some time soon after the health care bill is passed. And I think he very well might. i think he realizes now may be the best time given the solid majorities in both houses of Congress. We will see, though.
[ Parent ]
I doubt it
I was in Maine a few weeks ago and I can say that if the ads that ran didn't change people's minds and move them in support of gay marriage, NOTHING will, not even President Obama.

[ Parent ]
I couldn't agree more
Sadly, coming out in support of marriage equality now - if he were inclined to do it, and I'm not suggesting he is - could only hurt President Obama.

I think we have to consider the strong possibility that these results hurt efforts to repeal DOMA. I think that it's much more likely for Congress to pass ENDA than DOMA repeal, because while there is a clear majority nationwide for fair treatment of gays in employment (perhaps with the exception of schoolteachers, given some heteros' irrational fears, and that's probably where the battle lines would be joined), it seems even clearer that there's a majority against same-sex marriage nationwide. DOMA repeal may be dead until after 2012.

[By the way, is it considered derogatory to use the word "hetero"??]

[ Parent ]
Yeah your right Pan
Him coming out in favor of gay marriage would of hurt him, sad to think that but it is the truth.

Now regarding the DOMA, I can't tell you if what happened tonight could hurt it's chances of repeal. I don't think it's on anyones radar. With hate crimes legislation sign into law after how long I think regarding gay rights, people are paying attention to Congress scrapping DADT which I believe has the support in Congress to repeal (already has the support of the WH which is a good start). I can see them taking up the legislation after healthcare is passed.

[ Parent ]
DOMA repeal isn't happening for a while
during the primary, even Hillary Clinton said she'd only make some minor changes to the law, not repeal it.

Look at the margins in which it passed Congress in 1996...Paul Wellstone voted for the damn thing!

The other stuff will come in time...ENDA, DADT...and civil unions and marraige equality will pass elsewhere. Look for New Jersey to think about it doing it in the next month.

The good news is that the difference between California and Maine is that Maine voters did not put it into their Constitution. It was a people's veto, the tyranny of populism (I'm not a populist, sorry, this is why). the legislature is free to pass the bill again, not that I think they will.

Remember, the problem here is how easy it is for the people to overturn this things. The only reason gay marriage is still legal in Iowa is because there is no mechanism to put it up for a vote in a close amount of time. If Iowa had the people's veto or California's draconian amendment process, we'd probably see it pass there too easily.

[ Parent ]
Wow Wellstone voted for it
Shit I didn't know that, guess even good progressive cast voted for things you don't agree with (i.e Russ Feingold's vote for John Ashcroft for AG). I think DADT will be the first to be repealed if I had to predict. That definetly has the support of Obama, Congress and the american people.
[ Parent ]
Wellstone later called his DOMA vote a mistake.


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
Well Good
Wonder if Feingold later called his Ashcroft for AG vote a mostake as well?
[ Parent ]
He did.
He brought it up when he voted against Gonzales.
[ Parent ]
Good
Least Russ adknowledged his mistake and did the right thing by voting down Gonzales.
[ Parent ]
Hetero isn't derogatory; Breeder is
   I've been called a breeder before and resented it because I am not a breeder. Not all heterosexuals reproduce or want to breed. Sure, I like kids; at a distance and in limited doses. Just sayin'  ;-)
[ Parent ]
I realized "breeder" was
I'm a hetero. Whether I breed or not has yet to be determined. :-)
[ Parent ]
I think Siena polls on NY-23 were excellent
And the polling on NY-23 was never to be trusted.

And I feel like I was able to extrapolate the final result from their 11/1 poll, ref http://www.swingstateproject.c...

[ Parent ]
I missed that, well done! But I don't credit Siena......
I credit you for that extrapolation.

Frankly that was gutsy, I made a similar prediction but was winging it.  You actually used the polling data to support you!

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Looking like we lost Maine, just as PPP predicted
Turns out that their only really crappy poll was NY-23. But nobody could get a good read on that race.

There's not much good news tonight, but I think anti-incumbency sentiment overrode and partisan explosion.  

any hope in Maine?
right now we're at about 3/4 of the votes in, down by 4 points.

Anybody know whether this is one of those states in which the urban votes come in last (i.e. Portland?)  

Portland
voted to ban Gay Marriage....
[ Parent ]
Ahh...no
Cumberland County was one of the most overwhelming pro-equality parts of the state with something like 70% margins coming in from most of it.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Really?
I must of misheard on CNN then, they mentioned Portland and banning Same sex marriage together.  
[ Parent ]
Um?
Over at Open Left, they said that Portland voted in favor of marriage equality 71-29.

http://www.openleft.com/diary/...

(Scroll all the way down to "Update 28.")

[ Parent ]
Doesn't look it
We live to fight on another day.  
[ Parent ]
Hoffman concedes!
per Tweety.  Rock and roll!
Poor
Teabaggers. The Club for Growth has done an excellent job at helping the Dem win again. Let's hope they can work their magic in Florida next. Hasta la vista Crist!
[ Parent ]
I love how intrade was so off the last few days
So much for group think.

Bill Hedrick for Congress
[ Parent ]
The only thing intrade tells you
is what people think is going to happen.

I always roll my eyes when people point to intrade like it's magic or something.

[ Parent ]
I do too
Intrade is effectively just as good as intuition as a prediction too.

Oh, wait, they even start with the same three letters!

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Um, you guys to realize that if Intrade wasn't extremely efficient
you could make a living off of it, right?
[ Parent ]
If I had verified a credit card,
I have got myself some 5 shares of Owens when he was at $3.40.  But alas, I am a college student, and have no credit card (do they use gift cards that act as credit cards?), but then again, I really though Corzine would pull this out, so maybe I wouldn't have won as big as I expected.

I am definitely putting something down on the 2010 races though.

Iowa dem, Georgia dem, and Ohio dem Senate are currently under valued, and even if it doesnt look like they could win, I highly doubt that those numbers will be as low when the election nears, nobody says anothing, but Isakson's numbers against hypotheticals are miserable for an incumbent in such a red state, and it could be a good race if GA dems pick the right candidate.

Bill Hedrick for Congress

[ Parent ]
Haven't you people learned anything about
not trading derivatives?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Concedes via Twitter?
God I hate technology sometimes ;). Just do it in front of the cameras if youre gonna concede with a 'statement'.
[ Parent ]
Tweety = Chris Matthews for some reason...
[ Parent ]
WA - King Co Exec called for Dem
Seattle Time calls race for D Dow Constantine:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

Dodged a giant bullet

Hoffman conceded.
It's over.
What?
ACORN didn't steal this election? They've brainwashed him!

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Hoffman didn't expect to go to Congress
nor was he ready to.  He just wanted to send a message to the GOP and make sure that Dede wouldn't either.

I suspect that is why he conceded so quickly.  In Hoffman's (and the teabaggers) mind, he already won.

[ Parent ]
They get to everyone.

[ Parent ]
What a wingnut
From Hoffman's campaign site:

"Democrat's are bringing in ACORN and Nancy Pelosi's footsoldiers. Make a Donation - Help us Fight Back!"

[ Parent ]
Ooooohhhhh...Nancy Pelosiii...
I'm so scaaaaarrrrred...

Joking aside, using Pelosi as a boogeywoman has had no luster since 2006. If using her did not help the Republicans keep Congress in 2006, and her out of the Speakership, then why should they think the tactic will work when no "crazy liberal" items have been passed, with her holding the Speaker's gavel?

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)

[ Parent ]
Late Congrats...
...to New Haven mayor John DeStefano, elected to a ninth term. New Haven's northern burb Hamden also elected its first black mayor, which is very enlightening news.
Dearest Public Policy Polling
Please lay off polling for primaries and special elections. Your turnout guesstimating sucks.

s
Mr. R.

They did well
except NY-23, which was the polling embarrassment of the century.  Off by a mere 20 points!
[ Parent ]
To be fair
I have never seen a race with so many late developments like NY-23.  The race was nearly impossible to poll at the end.
[ Parent ]
they were choking left and right last year
undershot Obama's margin of victory in Georgia, overestimated Clinton in Indiana, had Obama winning in Pennsylvania.. all within days of those elections
[ Parent ]
Overall they were one of the most accurate primary pollsters
Everyone underestimated Obama's margin of victories in southern states. PPP did as well, but far less than the polling average.
[ Parent ]
They were pretty close to the mark
on NJ-Gov, it looks like.
[ Parent ]
idk if we can equate guesstimating and NJ
NJ has a good amount of data to go back to when it comes to realistic guesses on the composition of the electorate

but the "Obama's approval is 39% in the district because we really think so" stuff looks to have failed as a turnout estimation method

[ Parent ]
Democrats retake town council in my hometown
http://www.courant.com/news/el...

South Windsor, CT just went from a 5-4 R majority to a 5-4 D majority, which means that the mayor (just one person chosen from among the council) will be a Democrat as well.

Don't know about the other races, though.  However it does point to one more anecdote about anti-incumbent sentiment...until you look at who got elected.  Four out of five Democrats are returning, as are three of four Republicans.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

well 2009 taught us nothing as far as I'm concerned
People don't like incompetent incumbents.  That's why Corizine lost to a horrible openent

People aren't so partisan as we think and typically go for the better communicator more often than not.  That's why Deeds lost

All things equal a generic dem beats a generic R  That's why Owens won.

i think people put it this way...
local races= mixed bag, hate Rep, hate Dem, toss out whoever is in power

federal races= more Dems, please!

[ Parent ]
Spano and Suozi going down...
...as well as the Republicans picking up two eastern Queens city council seats shows that Republicans may be ready to rebound in NYC suburbia if they play their cards right in 2010.  Not that they necessarily will if the Doug Hoffman's of the world have a say in the matter.
Big Problems for Democrats
This sort of suburban areas are supposed to the future of expansion for Democrats.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It is the opposite of the rural South
for the GOP.  Democrats won local races in the rural South long after it became a stronghold for the GOP in Presidential and even Congressional elections.
[ Parent ]
NY burbs
Dems already expanded pretty much all they could in Westchester and Nassau over the past 20 years.

They have pretty much settled at 60-40 or 55-45, but the GOP will still live and will still win on occasion if the Dems screw up.

So as long as no more Dems decide to pull an Andy Spano and go to China during a crippling bus strike, we'll be ok.

[ Parent ]
And that's exactly how it should be.
The opposition party should have every chance to win if the majority party screws up.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
The case with Queens
the two seats;

One was Tony Avella's, who ran for Mayor, the Democratic priamry was a clusterfuck won by an Asian-American. This district is known for being very xenophobic against Asians. The Republican is pretty liberal actually.

The other seat, in Flushing, was a inter-Asian community fight, the Republican won not because he's a Republican, but because he won the battle and the left vote split between the Democrat, Working Families and Green nominees.

[ Parent ]
WTF did Suozzi do wrong?
I really like Suozzi and would be happy to vote for him for higher office. Where did he screw up?
[ Parent ]
wait a minute...
he may have won, up 400 votes with 99% according to the New York Times.  
[ Parent ]
This is kind of funny...
The big non-federal races were the ones that Dems lost, and the federal races are the ones Dems won.  
To be Honest
VA and NJ gov was because of a horrible candidate and incumbent. The rest i'm speechless on. Hopefully someone here could maybe enlighten us on why. That be excellent.
[ Parent ]
Oh I agree.
But you know the spinmasters are calling it a rebuke of Obama's administration when they actually voted in Democrats where it actually matters.  
[ Parent ]
Do you actually believe that?
Because if you do you need to rethink on that. The races where it would of been a rebuke of the Obama Admin was CA-10 and NY-23 and we won those seats. NJ-Gov and VA-Gov was not a rebuke whatsoever. People voted for McDonnell and Christie because Deeds ran a god awful campaign and Corzine was a hack. Obama did his part by going out and stumping for these guys but Obama and even Jesus H. Christ himself couldn't pull these two out of the gutter. The spinmasters can spin it whatever they want but it's the truth.
[ Parent ]
RedState:
 "In NY-23, Conservatives Win"

Scozzafava and Hoffman combined equal 50% of the vote. So they want to count her again as a conservative?  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

ATTENTION WINGNUTS
You are only allowed one (1) definition of "conservative" per election year.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
heh

[ Parent ]
Wingnuts make their own rules and their own facts

[ Parent ]
hmm
We also know, based on how Doug Hoffman is trending, that the GOP Establishment, if it continues to turn its back on the conservative base, will keep losing. Had the NRCC not so throughly botched NY-23, we would not be in this particular situation tonight.


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Huh?
I guess they mean had they just nominated Hoffman and not Scozzafava?

[ Parent ]
Had they done that
Owens would have won handily.  NY-23 just isn't a district for a wingnut.  
[ Parent ]
Sad thing is (for the GOP)
The GOP electorate there might actually nominate Hoffman in 2010. They should hope he doesnt run, though. And if he does at least moderate some and become familiar with local issues.  
[ Parent ]
The right
The right is quite contradictory. They were all out against Dede in NY-23 yet openly embraced the pro-choice, moderate (though not too moderate) Christie in NJ. If it was all about economic issues...then okay. Christie seems to be a solid economic conservative while Dede is a moderate on it. But for most of the right it was also about social issues.
[ Parent ]
Boy Christie fooled a lot of people
on choice, including you.  Christie is not pro-choice, he is very anti-choice and was vouched for that by Chris Smith, one of the worst anti-choice extremists in the House.
[ Parent ]
If true......
Then i guess i was ;). And definitely not doubting you. in fact you probably know much more about it than me. You could be right though. i wouldnt be surprised, really. As abortion wasnt a big issue and he may want to run for Pres. someday.
[ Parent ]
Actually, they just listen to emotions
in particular, emotions about who the biggest boogeyman is so far.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
IOKIYARM
you can decode that too, i'm sure. ;)
[ Parent ]
Hysterical
they don't find it all concerning that 50.9% of a district that repeadidly voted over 60% for Republican candidates voted for a Republican/Conservative.

Well I guess you can spin it anyway you want to. Me? I'll say even with Christie's won, no Republican has won an absolute majority of the popular vote in New Jersey since 1988.  

[ Parent ]
I thought scozzafava was the most liberal?

[ Parent ]
The nuts don't care about mathematics
lib(Scozz) > lib(Owens) AND lib(Owens) > lib(Scozz) can be a true statement to them.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Well
I guess we can put to rest the meme that NJ Dems always outperform the polls.
Houston mayor
Openly gay Dem Anine Parker leading 30-23 in the Houston mayor race with other candidates behind. Likely headed to a runoff.  
according to CNN
meant to add.
[ Parent ]
I'm ok with Houston
Parker is my choice, glad she got first. I was hoping for her to go against Brown, last thing I want is a motivated African American and conservative constituency taking on on the gay candidate repeating Dallas' Mayor race from 2007. And Locke is AA and the "conservative" Demcorat, so says the Bob Lanier endorsement.

Controller is VERY important, the person with all the money lost in Republican Pam Holm. It's Republican Kahn vs Democrat Green. Green might win this one yet, he pulled the weak challenger.

I am surprised Bradford made it with no run off for position 4, while longtime incumbent Sue Lovell has to have one in position 2.

BTW, if anyone was wondering Melissa Noriega (Rick's wife) was unopposed. She won.

[ Parent ]
Houston mayoral race
Interestingly the overwhelming majority of the tv ads i saw, of the mayoral race, were from Locke. Not Parker. I dont know why, though. Is Locke loaded with money or something?
[ Parent ]
Sugar Daddy Bob Lanier
Brown was the rich guy. Parker really didn't have a lot of cash, she's jsut the known quantity.

I've been in Dallas (yay grad school) this semester, so I've missed all the fun, otherwise I would have been volunteering for Parker's campaign.

[ Parent ]
Houston doesnt have a big percentage of cultural progressives
And especially compared to other big cities. So, in a way, Im surprised we could have an openly gay mayor so soon. But it does seem most young people, at least in the suburbs, are pretty tolerant towards gays. Maybe the evangelicals arent but theyre not the majority.
[ Parent ]
Looks like Tom Suozzi's in trouble
County Executive - Nassau - General
1020 of 1142 Precincts Reporting - 89%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Mangano, Edward GOP 104,472 48%
Suozzi, Thomas (i) Dem 103,590 48%
Hansen, Steven Con 8,519 4%
98% in, he's leading by 291 votes

[ Parent ]
Suozzi is, I take it?
Whew! Still not a sure thing, it sounds like.
[ Parent ]
yeah

[ Parent ]
Heh
Just think about how much Intrade money was lost on Hoffman in the last 24 hours...
AP calls Cal-10
Not sure if posted already.

http://elections.nj.com/dynami...

Virginia House of Delegates
will end up 59-39-2 if current leads hold.  Four districts - 21, 23, 34, and 41 are in recount territory, with Republicans leading three of them.
Interesting....
Three people involved in the 2006 California Lt. Governor's race (Jackie Speier, Tom McClintock and now John Garamendi) serve together in Congress.  
Too bad about Jersey, but NY-23 is a great surprise.
The 23rd makes me feel good about holding onto the House in '10. I don't know what kind of mojo the folks at D-trip have, but they kick ass.
Really a somewhat surprising result
considering where the race started. It looks like the result will be not only a Democratic takeover of an open Republican seat, but the Republican candidate becoming a Democrat. Very good all-round.
[ Parent ]
2012
this sure makes redistricting before 2012 very interesting. Well, as long as Mike Arcuri works hard this time to win reelection in NY-24.

It's still great to say the GOP owns only 2 districts out of 29 in the entire state of New York. What's that, +8 since 2004?

[ Parent ]
Hilarious
[ Parent ]
still gonna split it up anyway
Owens is no great loss.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Oh give the guy a chance

[ Parent ]
let North New York have a district
or... let an upstater become Andrew Cuomo's Lt. Governor until a better solution can be found. It might screw up the 27-1 plans though
[ Parent ]
It will have a district
the problem is that NYC is growing faster and will push outward, in fact every map I come up with has a trio of Westchester districts pushing out to take all of Putnam, Rockland, Dutchess, Colubmia, and most of Reneaslear. It is easier to dismantled Owens' district multiple ways, with Arcuri and Maffei taking the southern portions and the northern ones of St. Lawrence, Franklin, Clinton, Hamilton, and the northern, rural part of Herimeker being moved into NY-20. It would be designed to give Murphy the advantage, geograhipically, because he is the better Democrat. And it would give him a safer district to run in.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
I'd suggest eliminating Peter King's district
and shifting all the districts downward.
[ Parent ]
2010 will be interesting
And its definitely not a sure thing that all the Dem incumbents win in NY. Murphy, Owens, Massa and Arcuri are vulnerable, IMO. Hall, McMahon and Maffei not really. Even though their districts are swing.
[ Parent ]
I don't think a single Democratic incumbent
in NY will lose in 2010, unless there is some unforseen scandal or unless David Paterson is the Democratic nominee for Governor.
[ Parent ]
2010
Can anyone tell me which 41 seats the repubs would win in a landslide election to retake the house?  I don't even think that is possible esp. since they will probably lose some open seats on top of all that.
[ Parent ]
Yeah not happening
As long as a string of incumbents don't get spooked into retirement by the media over losing VA and NJ.
[ Parent ]
It means Owens, Arcuri, Murphy all have to tack left
to stay in the good graces of the NY Legislature and presumptive incoming Gov Cuomo.

As much as I hate the idea, it is possible that 1 of the 27 NY Ds may be sacrificed in the 2012 redistricting -

to keep the 26 others safer throughout the next decade.

After all, so many of us here rejected the idea of "only 4" safe R districts in CA (out of 53).

2 out of 28 is already a smaller fraction than 4 out of 53.

(This assumes that NY and CA are at near the same level of blueness.... if NY looks a lot more blue congressionally in 2010, that would be a different matter.)

[ Parent ]
Do we know Andrew Cuomo
is going to favor the further left Democratic Representatives? That seems a little simplistic. Maybe you're right that the State Legislature would, though.
[ Parent ]
redistricting NY
cd 3 King would be very difficult to eliminate without fatally weakening cd4.

At the best, his district might be trimmed to make it a tossup, for when he retires.

Upstate, there are weak or tossup cd 19, 20, 23, 24, and 26.  The important thing is to shore these up.  Cd 26 could take the republican votes from western NY and cd 23 the R votes in northern NY.  Without taking these votes out of play, Democrats would have too many seats which would fall like dominoes at the first breeze.

I dont think it is such a slamdunk that all of the above seats wouold weather 2010 even.

CD 13: Staten Island could be attached to something other than the most Republican part of NYC.

Joe Cooper

[ Parent ]
Look at my diary
for how to eliminate Peter King.  Granted my map is one of the most atrocious gerrymanders ever.
[ Parent ]
I'd love to eliminate King - but
but your diary only covered metro NY - and didn't you suggest that there should be 10 safe Rs (out of 53) in California?

I'd work on concentrating R precincts in King's district - hopefully from NY-4 and even NY-1.

It seems a bit of a stretch to bring his district upstate, unfortunately, as that could help John Hall in NY-19 too.

[ Parent ]
Ok
My diary was a sketch on how to get rid of Peter King.  I created a new Democratic district in NYC, but rather than do that, we could move many upstate districts down into NYC instead.

If I have time, I'll do a complete map of what I would do upstate this week.

On California, yes I believe that we should create 9-10 very safe GOP districts, in order to avoid the possibility of having our incumbents/open seats in danger.  Further, the more aggressive alternative (by MattTX) of creating 4-5 safe GOP districts and having another 4-6 being swing will fail because the GOP incumbents will win those swing districts.  The difference in New York is that Democrats are the incumbents, so a 27-1 delegation can hold up in the long term if drawn well.

[ Parent ]
Appreciate your enthusiasm
Just be aware, Nita Lowey, Maurice Hinchey, Carolyn McCarthy, and Louise Slaughter are getting older and may choose to retire sometime in the next decade.

I fear the "best" solution may be to redistrict out one of 27 Ds to keep the other 26 safe - but hope hope hope you can prove me wrong.

One option may be to set up secure incumbents in nominally "swing" districts, and have faith that demographic trends will help within the next decade.

[ Parent ]
Much much bigger than that
It opened the rifts in the Repub Party into a full blown civil war.  Teabaggers will be going all out to expunge every moderate or even moderate conservative out of the GOP.  And if they are unable to, they will run third party candidates.  

Tim Pawlenty, one of the less wingnutty conservatives, made it clear that Olympia Snowe was not welcome in the party if she votes for a health care bill.

[ Parent ]
Olympia Snowe, I-Maine
Don't be surprised if, in the end, she does decide to vote for the health reform bill and changes to an Independent, caucusing with the Democrats.

Some of you pointed out to me that her great popularity might not continue through the next election. Lately, opinion polls seem to have proven you right. And as much pressure as her party leadership is putting on her to filibuster the public option, her constituents are putting at least as much pressure on her to support it. Something's gotta give.

[ Parent ]
Did T-Paw really say that?
If so, hes a moron. If he were to get elected (somehow) then he needs Republicans like Olympia Snowe on his good side. Good way to piss her off, T-Paw..
[ Parent ]
Yes he did
and I'm very sure that the teabaggers would love to kick out both Maine senators out of the party right now.
[ Parent ]
What are the results in NY-23?
Can someone find me a nice link?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Nice link
[ Parent ]
We'll be fine in the House in 2010
I think we break even outside the South.  In the South we lose 10-15 seats, IMO.
[ Parent ]
What?
We don't even have 10-15 Seats that are vulnerable in the south, so what in the world are you talking about?
[ Parent ]
I see 31 seats in the South/border potentially vulnerable
to 100% teabagger/birther turnout.  Many of them never on the radar.  I predict we will lose 10-15 of these seats.

MO-4
WV-1
WV-3
MD-1
VA-2
VA-5
VA-9
KY-6
TN-4
TN-6
TN-8
NC-2
NC-7
NC-8
NC-11
SC-5
FL-2
FL-8
FL-24
GA-8
GA-12
AL-2
AL-5
MS-1
MS-4
LA-3
TX-17
OK-2
AR-1
AR-2
AR-4

[ Parent ]
lol, in your wet dreams
You'd love to shed twenty blue dogs.

Not of your Tennessee districts and only one of your Arkansas districts is even competitive. And the competitive AR district is Vic Synder who is not even a blue dog and represents the most liberal district in Arkansas that Obama and Kerry tried really hard to lose.

Spratt and Tanner aren't going to get beaten, neither districts are Republican enough have too strong a base.

Chet Edwards is alos not a blue dog, and he does better during off-years than presidential years without GOP coattails.

Neither of the Georgia districts appear to have challengers and Barrows' district is Democratic leaning. FL-24 Kosmas has no challenger, Boren is popular and represents the one area of OK a conservative Democrat can still win and has no challenger. Gene Taylor has immense popularity and local respect. No one is running against Kissell yet and I don't know why you even mention NC-02.

KY-06 is also a Democratic area and has been dominated by Chandler. WV is still very Democratic and is only upset on social and environmental issues and likes it Democrats and neither have serious challengers.

Ike Skelton practically got endorsed by Kit Bond and is super respected across party lines there.

90% of your list was even sensible targets and of that 10% only one or two are in any real danger.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
Put your money where your mouth is
I'm willing to bet cash right now that 10+ of these seats will be GOP after 2010.  
Are you willing to take the bet?  It's time for you and all others here to put up or shut up.

Some of these districts will go GOP even without a decent GOP challenger.  The hatred toward Obama is so intense in the rural South, that many voters will vote for anyone over a Democrat for Congress.  

And I realize that many on my list are not shitty Blue Dogs, but good solid Democrats.  But I'm calling them as I see them, and every rural Southern Democrat not in a black majority seat is vulnerable in 2010 IMO.  2010 in the white rural South will make 1994 look like a pro-Dem year.

[ Parent ]
You have no idea
What you're talking about, so I'll take that bet.  

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Ok the parameters of the bet
are as such, I have listed 31 Southern/border states in the post above that I consider potentially vulnerable.  

If the GOP picks up 10 or more of those seats in 2010, I win.  If the GOP picks up 9 or fewer of those 31, you win.

I'll list the 31 again below for convenience.

MO-4
WV-1
WV-3
MD-1
VA-2
VA-5
VA-9
KY-6
TN-4
TN-6
TN-8
NC-2
NC-7
NC-8
NC-11
SC-5
FL-2
FL-8
FL-24
GA-8
GA-12
AL-2
AL-5
MS-1
MS-4
LA-3
TX-17
OK-2
AR-1
AR-2
AR-4

[ Parent ]
Also in the South LA-02 is a sure pickup
    which would reduce net losses by one seat. I don't see how "Joe" Cao can get reelected there.  
[ Parent ]
He won't
So I guess my prediction should be a net 9-14 seat loss in the South.

But my point is that of the 31 seats I listed above, the Dems will lose 10-15 of them.  And that is worse than 1994 in the South.

[ Parent ]
Yeah, yeah, you've said that about the South already
we'll see about that one.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
D-trip doesn't have mojo
they have a NRCC voodoo doll

the NRCC will miss the $900K they sank into Scozzafava next year.

[ Parent ]
Kind of hard to imagine
Only 2 Republican congressmen in NY. Boy has the NY GOP fallen...
[ Parent ]
Regarding Christie's lack of coattails
Remember Linda Stender? She successfully defended her Assembly seat tonight.  
good for her
hopefully she realizes she likes it and decides to stay there
[ Parent ]
Christie
was able to ride the "I hate Jon Corzine" wave to the statehouse. But it seemed like that voters just wanted to throw out Corzine and no one else.  
[ Parent ]
Maine
NYT says bigotry will prevail:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2...

This is just ridiculous. If a well-run campaign in one of the less religious states in the country can't work, what can? NY-23 is great but not enough to restore my faith in the voters.

We're going to keep trying
I'm unwilling to wait much longer on this though.  
[ Parent ]
What's the alternative to waiting?
Agitating, I think. What do you think?
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure
But if we're going to engage in a culture war, it can't be with a narrow (and I hope transient) majority of Mainers. I'd prefer to have a battle with the south somehow.  
[ Parent ]
gay rights
I expect some sort of gay rights initiative onthe California ballot in 2012.  There seems to be a difference of opinon as to whether it should be 2010 , but I would prefer it to be 2012 when more voters show up at the 2012 general election.

Joe Cooper
[ Parent ]
I'm
depressed too. But I had a bad feeling gay marriage would be banned in Maine. The only way gay marriage will be legalized is via the state legislatures (making sure there isn't a initiative to ban it a few months later) or the Supreme Court.

Also Jon Corzine you suck, because you lost, Christie's supporters chanted "Yes We Can!" at his victory speech. My blood was boiling when were chanting "Yes We Can!"  

[ Parent ]
Christie did the right thing
By telling his supporters not to be rude towards Corzine during the speech. But by all accounts it was a nasty campaign on both ends and its much easier to be friendly and civil when the race is over and its your freakin concession speech.
[ Parent ]
Is it a barnburner if nobody cares?
I made fun of Detroit for casting only 120,000 votes for mayor (though only about 850,000 and dropping are left there) while Nassau's 1.5 million can only muster 250,000 votes? In one of the wealthiest and best educated areas of the country? Someone move these races to Presidential or Midterm years please...
Mods are slipping
Where is the North Country map painted blue? :)
OK, here's the mayor race you've been waiting for
In Riverside, CA, moderate Democrat incumbent Ron Loveridge has beaten moderate Republican businessman Art Gage by about 70-30. Quite the unexpected blow-out in these anti-incumbent times. Riverside consolidates its status as the greatest city ever.
Riverside
It's a significantly large city, no? Pretty good news from SoCal.
[ Parent ]
And possibly great news for Bill Hedrick in CA-44!
Riverside is the population anchor of this district, and Obama won the city 56-42, which probably helped him carry CA-44.

Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
Yes, Riverside is a largish city
300,000 and growing. It's the county seat and the home of UC Riverside. The city had several Republican mayors in a row before Loveridge won it back for the Democrats, though his style is pretty non-partisan. I agree that this is a good omen for Bill Hedrick.
[ Parent ]
Suozzi Survives!
wins by 237 votes!

He'll bail to Attorney General as soon as he can, if Cuomo lets him.

Georgia Special Elections Results
The comment I was going to post became so long it turned into a diary:

http://www.swingstateproject.c...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Conclusions from tonight
1. Glenn Beck can shut the fuck up.
2. No one likes incumbents.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
I would say moderation wins

[ Parent ]
I say Money Loses is the Story
Corzine
Hoffman
Peter Brown and Pam Holm (Houston)
Bloomberg (yeah he won, but by 5% after $100 million)
[ Parent ]
Sure
And Palin. Like always. Actually, there is a connection there - lipstick and pigs.
[ Parent ]
Yeah that's pretty much what we all learned tonight
Although we''ve been saying to Beck to STFU for years though. Here's what I learned tonight

1. Pot is cool in CO but gays getting married in ME is awful
2. Being sn incumbent isn't the cool place to be anymore
3. Who thought upstate could provide the best political theater. First Panic at Tedisco in NY-20 and whatever the hell happened in NY-23
4. Deeds is a awful campaigned, Corzine is a hack and NJ is possibly screwed for the next four years.

[ Parent ]
Seriously
The NRCC is the pits. What other turkeys do they have out there I wonder...
[ Parent ]
I wonder how long it will take for a state to legalize
marijuana by voter initative. I mean hell if med mj is this much more popular then gay and lesbians couples rights and yet same sex marraige is legal in some states how long will it take for marijuana to be legalized on the state level. (I realize there are state vs. federal problems on this but that doesn't stop it from being placed on the ballot and no i'm not joyous about gay people being denied equal rights I am furious over it however I am taking solice in the one ray of sunshine in this equation that marijuana may be gaining enough popularity for politicans to start standing up to the insane and racially motivated practices of our drug war.)
It wouldn't be legalization
You're right; states are not permitted to do that. It would be effective decriminalization, in the sense that it would no longer be illegal under state law or, failing that, the police would be directed not to arrest anyone for possession of pot.
[ Parent ]
Shame Corzine Lost . . .
Who's going to help me start printing Booker 2013 signs?
The good news is
I can now shave off my solidarity beard!
[ Parent ]
I wonder if anyone
Has a solidarity gaping bald spot ;)
[ Parent ]
I guess Michael Steele is mostly bald
"Vote for good hairstyles.  Vote Jon Tester."

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Good election for health reform
Garamendi campaigned on it, and Owens came out for the public option at the end. Both are obviously to the left of the Representatives they replace--Taucher and McHugh. So the odds on close votes in the House just got fractionally better
Not only did Garamendi supports the public option
But single payer as well I believe. As for Owens, he cam out for it in the end. The thought the man was againist it. What happened?
[ Parent ]
Lessons again
Wingnuts can't win seats on the national stage outside deep red areas.

Uninspiring, been-around-forever, hackish Dems will have trouble with non-wingnut mainstream Republicans.

Democrats need to primary their unispiring hacks.  Specter is facing a challenge, but Harry Reid is not.  While not very hackish, Dodd is uninspiring and could use a challenge too.  The electorate is simply tired of guys who have been around for a long while and don't have clear, solid accomplishments to point to.

Democrats need to smell the coffee and similarly run against complacent Republicans (Grassley...).

In other (unrelated) news
Apparently, assistant attorney general Roland Corning of South Carolina was caught speeding away from a stripper from behind a cemetery, a few days ago.

1. Why do these things come out of South Carolina?
2. Is it okay if I make puns on "undying love" and refer to a certain song by Cutting Crew, or are these puns just dead wrong?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

theres more
he also had a bunch of viagra pills and a bag full of sex toys. He told the cop they were for "emergencies."
[ Parent ]
I assume they were things...
...he wouldn't be caught dead with.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Election 2009 Results, Thread No. 4 | 233 comments

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