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NJ-Gov: Poll Roundup

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 1:48 PM EST

The polls have been coming hot and heavy in New Jersey, and this race is nothing but a pure tossup, with just as many polls giving a Corzine lead as a Christie lead. Last time we had anything to say about New Jersey, we were feeling a little cocky after Quinnipiac had given Jon Corzine a 5-point lead last Wednesday. Rather than go into extreme detail about every bump and dip in the roller coaster ride since then, let's just recap everything that's been released in the last half a week, from oldest to newest:

Pollster	Dates	Corzine (D)	Christie (R)	Daggett (I)
Democracy Corps	10/27-28	43	38	12
Research 2000	10/26-28	41	42	14
SurveyUSA	10/26-28	43	43	11
FDU Public Mind	10/22-28	39	41	14
Stockton	10/27-29	40	39	14
Neighborhood (R)	10/27-29	35	42	8
Rasmussen	10/29	43	46	8
YouGov	10/27-30	43	41	8
Monmouth	10/28-30	42	43	8
PPP	10/31-11/1	41	47	11
Quinnipiac	10/27-11/1	40	42	12
SurveyUSA	10/30-11/1	42	45	10
Monmouth	10/31-11/1	43	41	8
Democracy Corps	10/29-11/1	41	36	14

Rather than try to convince you there's a pattern here, I'll merely direct you to the Pollster.com regression lines, which, as of this minute, pegs the race at precisely 42.0% Corzine, 42.0% Christie, and 10.1% Daggett (with a notable downtick in Daggett's trendline, as many recent polls have him falling back into the single-digits, and a somewhat less noticeable Christie uptick -- his red line gets overlapped by Corzine's blue line). There initially seemed to be a bit of a Corzine swoon over the weekend (as seen in the Corzine drops in Quinnipiac and SurveyUSA), but the Monmouth and Democracy Corps polls that just rolled in don't seem to be bear that out. And SurveyUSA's writeup of their most recent poll points to what you may be thinking: there may be a weekend sample selection bias thing going on here, with last weekend being a particularly busy one for younger people, between Halloween and the state being torn apart, brother against brother, by the World Series (I'm sure you remember that Barack Obama's polling numbers used to fall off over the weekend as we were racing to the end a year ago). Bottom line: this race is as tossuppy as a tossup has ever been tossed.

RaceTracker: NJ-Gov

Crisitunity :: NJ-Gov: Poll Roundup

Tags: Polls, NJ-Gov, Jon Corzine, Chris Christie, Chris Daggett, Democracy Corps, Research 2000, SurveyUSA, FDU, Rasmussen Reports, Monmouth, PPP, Quinnipiac, (All Tags)

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NJ-Gov: Poll Roundup | 26 comments

Anybody know what final polls are coming out today and tomorrow?

The suspects are:

YouGov/Polimetrix (last poll 10/30)
Rasmussen (last poll 10/29)
Zogby (last poll 10/29)
Neighborhood (R) (last poll 10/29)
Daily Kos (last poll 10/28)
Fairleigh Dickinson (last poll 10/28)
Suffolk (last poll 10/25)
Rutgers-Eagleton (last poll 10/20)
New York Times (last poll 10/14)
Penn Shoen (last poll 10/5)

by: spiderdem @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 12:59:27 PM CST

by: you @ soon

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Apparently

Taegan Goddard is not expecting any more polls, as he notes that the "final" pollster.com average is 42.0 to 42.0, which is pretty amazing.

by: spiderdem @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:37:46 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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I'm confident Rasmussen

Will lay a giant turd at sometime this evening.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:21:07 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Yeah, probably. And FDU

has one just out that has Corzine ahead by 2. But it's over an 11-day period, which is ridiculous.

http://www.bluejersey.com/diar...

by: Paleo @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:28:37 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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My experience is

They aren't very reliable period. Monmouth, however, are another thing entirely.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:40:19 PM CST

[ Parent ]

SUSA has Christie

killing among the already-voted 50-38 but still down overall. Dem early voting operations really seem to have improved in recent years.

by: spiderdem @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:01:53 PM CST

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Corzine you mean. n/t

by: sulthernao @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:03:00 PM CST

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Yes Corzine

second time I've done that today. Too many C's...

by: spiderdem @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:04:24 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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...Phew

At first I though Corzine was screwed; his Get out to vote drive is probably in my opinion the best thing he has left.

by: Hamtree @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:16:36 PM CST

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How big is early voting in NJ? n/t

by: tietack @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:07:25 PM CST

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14% so far

according to Survey USA. My understanding is it's just absentee. Could be wrong.

by: spiderdem @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:08:50 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Which means Corzine has 7% banked

So if he gets 45% of the remaining 86% on election day, that would add up to 46%, which should be enough if Daggett holds at 10% as I expect.

by: tietack @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:14:58 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Monmouth found something similar

"...about 6% of New Jersey voters have already cast their ballot by mail, similar to the percentage of mail ballots received in last year's presidential race. For these ballots, Jon Corzine looks to have the decided advantage. A majority of 53% of mail voters say they voted for the incumbent, compared to just 31% for Christie, 11% for Daggett and 5% for other candidates."

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:15:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

If Corzine is doing much better among early voters...

... doesn't that imply that the enthusiasm gap is over-stated and/or can be made up by a superior ground game?

by: omarka @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:02:08 PM CST

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It means better organization

Which bodes well for GOTV on election day.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:11:09 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Naturally.

But a ground game is usually not worth more than a couple points. The question here (and in NY-23) is how large its effect is compared to the effect of the presumed enthusiasm gap.

by: omarka @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:42:30 PM CST

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by: you @ soon

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Ack!

Polling overload! Props for sorting through all that; the overabundance of numbers makes me want to gouge out my eyeballs...which would make me sad, because I'm really hoping to see John King whip out the SMART Board again tomorrow night.

by: Politik @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:05:59 PM CST

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So movement to Christie

In every poll, including Democracy Corps, except the most accurate in the state IMO.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:45:02 PM CST

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I just want to make a point

that no matter how bad NJ voters think Corzine is, Christie would be 10 times worse. It isn't worth it just because they are angry at Corzine. The thing New Jersey need is a corrupt North East version of Hailey Barbour as their governor.

by: jmartin4s @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 13:45:15 PM CST

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Time to make a prediction

Christie 48
Corzine 47
Daggett 5

I hope I'm wrong.

by: panhandler @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:01:32 PM CST

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I'm leaning recount in NJ and NY-23

I'll crunch the actual numbers tomorrow.

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:16:37 PM CST

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Here goes...

47.0% Corzine
44.8% Christie
8% Daggett
.2% other

by: Hamtree @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:22:47 PM CST

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A good analysis of turnout model and polling

in the race:

http://eagletonpoll.blogspot.c...

by: Paleo @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:30:13 PM CST

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Nate says Christie barely

I disagree with some of his assumptions with regard to his "15 clarifiying questions".

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com...

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:38:46 PM CST

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His problem

He doesn't factor in that this a three-way race. That increases the unpredictability of many of the other factors.

by: Paleo @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 14:43:24 PM CST

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Taegan

"PPP showing Christie +6 and DemCorps showing Corzine +4 are outliers... All others show statistical tie..."

by: conspiracy @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 15:13:03 PM CST

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NJ-Gov: Poll Roundup | 26 comments

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NJ-Gov: Poll Roundup

by: Crisitunity

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 1:48 PM EST

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