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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 9:37 PM EDT


I bet I can guess.

UPDATE: The DCCC just dropped another $280K on Owens tonight, bringing their total to over $1.1 million.

SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE: PPP just posted their poll release schedule for tonight:

NY-23 around 10
New Jersey around 11
Maine around midnight
Virginia around 1 AM
Chapel Hill around 2 AM
Charlotte around 3 AM
DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 207 comments
Newsom out of CA-Gov. race...
not sure if this has been posted but here it is...

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs...

Indepedent/Lean D. Dude.
All 5s (now TX-5; frmly VA-5 and CA-5)  

This really makes no diffrence
He would have never won the primary.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Its means Jerry Brown can focus more on the general
If both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer get over 60% of the vote it could help down the ballot, including the house seats. It would protect Jerry McNerney and also give Dems the potential to unseat Tom Mclintock, Mary Bono Mack, Ken Calvert, Dan Lungren, and Brian Bilbray.
[ Parent ]
Oh man, and think of what would happen if ther is a GOP civil war during the primary?
If the republicans nominate a candidate for governor after a really bloody primary, and is seen as not conservative enough, that could REALLY help us gain some house seats before redistricting occurs.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Planning on us running a 3rd party conservative?
If so, I think Doug Hoffman is a special case. Red State has been a big source of support for him. RS's policy is to not support 3rd parties. They, like me, realize that, when the voters of a party nominate someone, we are stuck with them and should support them even if they were not our first choice. The difference here is that DeDe Scozzafava was not chosen by the voters. So, those counting on 3rd party conservatives to run everywhere and divide the vote, don't get your hopes up.  
[ Parent ]
There are plenty of Repbulicans
who would burst blood vessels if Tom Campbell won and ran to the left of Brown.
[ Parent ]
there will be a 3rd party conservative
   on the ballot. The CA American Independent Party is the last vestige of the 1968 George Wallace campaign. It has been an affiliate of the Constitution Party, but I believe is now a standalone party. The question is whether they have anyone on the ballot who is prominent enough to make a difference; most likely not, but things can change rapidly in politics. In the unlikely instance of Tom Campbell winning the GOP nomination, you might have something there. The point is that the AIP exists and could be a vehicle for teabagger types.

52, male, disgruntled Democrat, CA-28
[ Parent ]
I agree.
The Conservative party in New York also has a decent amount of infrastructure and such thanks to fusion voting, which no third party in California can match.
[ Parent ]
Predictions for Tuesday
My final (maybe!) predictions for Tuesday-
VA-Gov-
56% McDonnell
43% Deeds
1% other

NJ-Gov-
44% Christie
44% Corzine
7% Daggett
5% other

NY-23-
40% Hoffman
39% Owens
21% DeDe

CA-10
52% Garmendi
43% Harmer
5% other

My two cents.
McDonnell 56%
Deeds     43%

Bolling   54%
Wagner    45%

Cuccinelli56%
Shannon   43%

Corzine   46%
Christie  42%
Daggett   11%

Owens     41%
Hoffman   38%
Scozzafava21%

Garamendi 57%
Harmer    42%

Maine - 53%-47% for keeping gay marriage.

VA House - Republicans pick up 4 seats.
NJ Assembly - Republicans pick up 1 seat.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
My predictions (constantly changing)
NJ
44% Corzine
43% Christie
12% Daggett
1% Other
VA
58% McDonnell
42% Deeds
NY-23
42% Owens
38% Hoffman
20% Scozzafava
Charlotte Mayor
(could go either way, recount likely)
50% Foxx
50% Lassiter
NYC  Mayor
56% Bloomberg
40% Thompson
CA-10
58% Garamendi
39% Harmer
Maine Gay Marriage
50% No ("No" margin of victory under 2,000 votes)
50% Yes
[ Parent ]
I'd like to say these are final, but ya never know...
NJ:
Corzine - 45%
Christie - 44%
Daggett - 11%

VA:
McDonnell - 57%
Deeds - 43%

NY-23:
Hoffman - 42%
Owens - 39%
Scozzafava - 19%

NYC-Mayor:
Bloomberg - 58%
Thompson - 42%

Maine:
"No" - 52%
"Yes" - 48%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
downbeat predictions
I am relatively optimistic about 2010, but not 2009.

VA-Gov-
56% McDonnell
43% Deeds
1% other

NJ-Gov-
46% Christie
44% Corzine
6% Daggett
4% other

NY-23-
50% Hoffman
40% Owens
10% DeDe

CA-10
51% Garamendi
45% Harmer
4% other  

[ Parent ]
MA-Sen
Shouldn't Mitt Romney spend time raising money for candidates who actually have a chance?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
Final Thoughts on Virginia
Governor: Yeah, it's gone, although I think it will end up being a little closer than the 15-17 point margin the polls are showing. I'd say 56-44 McDonnell.

Lt. Governor: This is the statewide race to watch. Jody Wagner will be leading the rest of the statewide ticket, and if she keeps it close enough (or, in what would be quite an upset, wins), she'll probably be a contender for Governor in 2013.

Attorney General: What a wasted opportunity this was. The Democrats in Fairfax had better get their act together to win Cuccinelli's Senate seat in the ensuing special election.

House of Delegates: I'm forecasting a net 5 seat gain for the Republicans. Given that Deeds is still doing relatively okay in Northern Virginia while losing the rest of the state badly, I think some of the vulnerable NoVa Delegates will hold on, while Delegates in the rest of the state get washed out.

PPP seems to agree with me re: Wagner
Twitter from last night: "Don't know if it will be enough but Jody Wagner is polling noticeably better than ticket mates so far on this poll"
[ Parent ]
That's counterintuitive
Because Wagner is the only one running against an incumbent.
[ Parent ]
Bolling is a weak incumbent
He's hardly an incumbent at all, really; he's pretty much unknown to the voters. He's pretty much done nothing in his four years in office; there are no duties to the LG office aside from being President of the Senate, and Kaine wasn't going to give him anything to do.
[ Parent ]
NoVA Dems holding on means we lose LESS than 5......
I don't think the Rethugs can get to plus-5 without knocking out a couple in NoVA.  I think they'll get Bowling and Bouchard, and maybe one more in Hampton Roads, but almost everything else most in jeapordy is in NoVA.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I would peg...
Shannon Valentine, Chuck Caputo, Bill Barlow, and David Poisson as the most likely to lose after Bowling and Bouchard. I don't think every NoVa Dem will hold on, but I think they're in relatively good shape.
[ Parent ]
Wagner is the frontrunner for Governor in 2013
Unless Kaine tries for a comeback.
[ Parent ]
Oh, I'm thinking Mark Warner tries the comeback......
Mark Warner was open about wanting to be Governor again before he decided to run for Senate.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Warner ditched the Senate to run for Governor again in 2013.  He'll have served a majority of his 6-year Senate term, if he wins he gets to appoint a Democratic successor, and if he loses he keeps his Senate seat and can run for reelection.  Of course the "losing" part is purely hypothetical, he won't lose.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Stepping stone
That scenario also gives up a better office to launch another presidential campaign in 2016.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
No idea what's going on in the PA Supreme Court race
Other than that it's pretty important. It will decide the partisan balance of the court, and the Republican is apparently a nut.
She's not a nut
Not sure if it's a good or bad thing that she's not.  As a nut we'd have a better chance to beat her.  As a mainstream Republican, she's a better vote than a wignut would be.

Offyear elections with nothing contentious in Philly (like this year) tend to lean towards Republicans, Western Pennsylvanians, and women.  Only thing Panella has going for him is money.  

This will be close but I am afraid Panella loses 52-48.

[ Parent ]
Her sister is a nut.
Jane Orie is majority whip of the state senate and one of the staunchest supporters of a state anti-gay marriage amendment (which, thankfully, didn't go through before Democrats won back the state house). I remember that she opposed the most recent attempt because it only would've banned same-sex marriage and not civil unions. Granted, most Pennsylvanians don't know who Jane Orie is, but she is better-known than backbencher legislators and is usually quoted in Pittsburgh news saying pretty conservative things. If anyone knows who Jane Orie is, they are likely to assume that Joan Orie Melvin has the same political beliefs. I'd wager that Joan is, in fact, a nut.
[ Parent ]
That was good politics for her, not whack-a-doodle
Not everywhere in Pennsylvania is in the 21st century yet
[ Parent ]
Polls show that Pennsylvanians support civil unions, though.
Opposing civil unions makes her a nut in my book.
[ Parent ]
Georgia Races
I've already talked about the special elections in my diary.

I'm finally interested in the Atlanta mayor's race now that Mary Norwood is being accused of being a shadow Republican.

I'm also interested in the Marietta mayor's race.  I'd like to give now former State Rep. Steve Tumlin (R-but this is a non-partisan race) another defeat and stop him from trying to get his old seat back or going on to other things.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Conyers Mayor
Conyers is the county seat of Rockdale County, a suburban county that finally went blue last year, but is still re-aligning.  The incumbent (Randy Mills) is a Republican who's being challenged by Kathy Harvey, a Democrat.  Unfortunately, it's a nonpartisan race.  Otherwise, Harvey would probably win easily.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Mills might win again
From the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer:
A Conyers mayoral candidate in the Nov. 3 election pleaded guilty to a felony in Newton County Superior Court.

Kathy Harvey was sentenced to five years probation and a $1,000 fine for theft by conversion after her plea on Monday for cashing an $6,000 insurance check received as payment to a business doing carpeting work in her home in 2004.

According to Assistant District Attorney Anne Kurtz, Harvey received first-offender status that could remove the felony from her record if she completes her sentence.

Georgia law treats first-offender status convictions as felonies that don't involve violations of moral turpitude, making Harvey eligible to seek elective office as a first-offender probationer.


[ Parent ]
Damn it!


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm just relieved we're not voting on Sam Adams this election (Portland OR Mayor)
http://portlandtribune.com/new...

Though the people behind the recall effort are trying again.

GA-gov
I think its worth putting this in here again.

I just laughed to hard.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

I still can't believe a professional campaign put out that shit.
It's like something an undergrad would do in a campaigns and elections class.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Wow, just wow!!
I still don't get the education theme??  And the New York Reference?? Doesn't make any sense.

Oh, and my predictions:

VA Gov:
McDonnell:56%
Deeds:44%

VA LG:
Bolling 55%
Wagner 45%

VA-AG:
Cucinelli 55%
Shannon 45%

NJ Gov: Corzine 45%
       Christie 40%
       Daggett 15%
(the shocker, in that it won't be as close as everyone thinks)

NY Mayor: Bloomberg 59%
         Thompson 41%

Maine: Keep Gay Marriage 50.5%
      Ban Gay Marriage 49.5%

NY-23:  Owens 37.1%
       Hoffmann 37%
       Scozzfava 25.9%
closer than Tedisco/Murphy

[ Parent ]
Barnes and education
Barnes pissed off a lot of teachers with his policies.  I don't remember what all happened, bt I know e eliminated tenure for new teachers (according to Wikipedia--I knew he eliminated tenure, but didn't know to what extent) and ended social promotion when moving students to the next grade.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
someone got paid for that??
Thats 4 minutes of my life I want back.
[ Parent ]
Did you at least laughed at the shittyness?
And you didn't have to pay.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I think they were trying to recreate this:

But obviously failed miserably.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Had Roy Barnes or Thurbert Baker ran for senate in '08
could either of them have unseated Chambliss.
[ Parent ]
Probably
We ran a second-tier candidate and forced a runoff.  I personally hope Baker switches to the Senate race next year.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I actually came pretty close to falling asleep during that
The Rat. The Rat. The Rat...  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
Someone please refute this

Republican Christopher Christie has a seven point lead, 43%-35%, over Gov. Jon Corzine among likely voters, with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan.  

Christie has
his highest approval rating in months and Corzine's approval rating in that poll was 26%

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
The thing with Neighborhood Research...
...is that while it's a Republican pollster (with ties to Christie's former opponent, Steve Lonegan), they've actually posted very tight numbers all along. I highly doubt he does have a 7-point lead, but then again, I also highly doubt Corzine has the 9-point lead posted in another recent poll.

Everyone else is saying this thing is basically a dead heat, and that's what it almost certainly is. I do feel like Christie has benefitted a tad bit from the lack of gaffes on his end + the sorta-collapse of Chris Daggett, but if anything, all he's done is kept Corzine from posting a steady lead.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Pollster.com average
Average-
Corzine- 41.4%
Christie-40.6%
Daggett-11.2%

Average w/o the Neighborhood Research and Suffolk Poll-
Corzine-41.6%
Christie-40.5%
Daggett-12.9%
http://www.pollster.com/polls/...

[ Parent ]
That's only 86% total
Where are the other 14%? It's a little late to have undecided that high.
[ Parent ]
Thats the average

[ Parent ]
Wonderful Piece:
Such a simple, elegant flowing beauty to this Racmaninoff piece, played by the great musician himself. It was prominently featured in Shine for any fans of that movie.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
oops


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Bill HIllsman's firm
is suing Alan Grayson. It's a money dispute. . .
Maybe Anthony Weiner is right....
I hate to say it but maybe Anthony Weiner is right. It looks like Congressman Grayson might just be one fry short of a Happy Meal.  

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...
[ Parent ]
Hey
It didn't stop Michele Bachmann from getting re-elected against fairly mediocre competition!

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
in fairness
she couldn't break 45% of the vote the second time around and would've lost if not for the Independence Party nominee.  
[ Parent ]
Not really
El Tinklenberg would have need 65% of the vote that went to the Independence Party candidate in order to beat Bachmann, I don't think that was likely to happen. IMO a lot of the Independence Party vote were Republicans who were embarresed by Bachmann but would never vote for a Democrat. I am no fan of Bachmann but she likely would have won in 2008 with or without the 3rd Party candidate in the race.

"Where free Unions and collective bargaining is forbidden, freedom is lost." - Ronald Reagan
[ Parent ]
Bachmann underperforms for a Rethug in MN-06
There is little margin for error for Grayson.
[ Parent ]
I'll tell you one thing though:
he gives me a strong "stay away" vibe. I think that's part of the reason why he's not attracting 1st rate GOP opposition.  
[ Parent ]
I disagree with PPP comment about next years midterms
On Twitter today PPP said

"In NJ roughly 1,100,000 Obama voters staying home to just 640,000 McCain voters. In Va. approximately 1,080,000 Obama voters staying home to just 765,000 McCain voters.If this trend is the same for 2010 Dems really could lose the House."

First of all in 2010 many of the house candidates in vulnerable seats will be way stronger candidates than Creigh Deeds and will be more liked than Corzine. Thus turnout will probably be higher for them and also they will have a high turnout than an off year election. These are the following house seats that the GOP will be heavily targeting that I see as likely to survive.

Halvorson, Altmire, Murphy, Titus, Dahlkemper, Driehaus, Kirkpatrick, Markey, Heinrich, Teague, Boccieri, McMahon, Himes, Grayson, Nye, Kratovil, Adler, Shea-Porter, Giffords, Carney

I wouldn't bet on Teague just yet...

[ Parent ]
I predict that Corzine wins by a 2.8 margin.
n/t.
Some West Coast races to watch besides the big 3 out east
Besides NJ-Gov and NY-23 and ME-Question 1 (I'm not counting VA-Gov or NYC-Mayor....those aren't races), I'm also watching some local races out here:

Washington State Referendum 71: pro-equality side should easily win:  55-45.

King County Exec (the county where Seattle is):  Constintine (D): 51%
Hutchinson (R): 49%

Seattle Mayor:  who knows!!?!?!??!  Two terrible Democratic candidates running against each other!

Even though for me, the race I'm watching most closely of the big 3 is Maine Question #1.  Hoping and praying for:
48% Yes (anti-marriage equality)
52% No (Pro-marrirage equality)

Siena is out - Owens still ahead 36-35-20
Similar to the DK poll. Don't have time for a diary this weekend on the subject - PDF with internals here - http://www.siena.edu/uploadedf...

The internals are strikingly similar. Siena polled 704 likely voters Oct 27-29.

Strangely enough, when voters were asked who will win:

"Who will win is too close to call, however, 37 percent of voters, irrespective of who they're supporting, say they think Owens will win, compared to 22 percent who think Hoffman will win and 20 percent who think Scozzafava will win," Greenberg said.

I'm betting
this will end up like NY-20, dragged out for two months by a recount.
[ Parent ]
Scozzafava DROPS OUT of NY-23
http://www.watertowndailytimes...

"Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.

The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate."

she's still on the ballot though right? n/t

[ Parent ]
Yes
but I think this screws over Owens' chances. PPP is tweeting that they had Hoffman up big before the announcement.
[ Parent ]
Hopefully she'll endorse owens n/t

[ Parent ]
She did not however..
If it is a two way race, Hoffman is wayy toooo conservative for any district in upstate New York. I see Owens still winning.
[ Parent ]
PPP:
"With about 200 interviews down we had Hoffman 45 Owens 26 Scozzafava 17...her withdrawal will just make it that much easier for Hoffman"
[ Parent ]
Why is PPP seeing what no other independent pollsters are?
n/t

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Does PPP poll different geographies on different days?
Those numbers look like the Siena numbers for the south central part of the district.
[ Parent ]
Later
Others polled earlier in the week. Undecideds kept breaking towards Hoffman. Personally, I'm disappointed DeDe droped out. It will make a Hoffman victory less sweet.  
[ Parent ]
Now that DeDe is out, PPP's poll will be thrown out
at least in the minds of pundits.

(assuming this withdrawl is in the middle of their interview cycle)

[ Parent ]
The problem is
PPP is automated. So, how can they change it mid-way? He said that he was going to do a separate cross tab based on time, but many people there may not have heard she dropped out yet. Hoffman had 45% after 200 surveys. Anyone think with 9% undecideds and DeDe's Republican support flocking to Hoffman, he could have gotten over 50% in the 3-way?  
[ Parent ]
If they haven't yet
pretty much all Dede's Republican support has already gone to Hoffman, the question is where do her indies and Dems go.

[ Parent ]
Dems
I actually wouldn't rule out a good portion (5-6%) going to Hoffman. He had 14% in the Siena poll, more than DeDe's 11%
[ Parent ]
I really doubt that number
I do not believe he's getting 14% of Democrats in that district, no way.

Maybe in the south or a state like Oklahoma, Kentucky or West Virginia where there are a lot of Democrats, but they tend to vote Republican, but not in NY-23.

I'd be surprised if Hoffman got more than 8% of Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
Makes it even easier to chage midway
Just stop the machines and change the script. It's not like HAL 9000 has taken over the polling. But if you switch, that would shrink your sample.
[ Parent ]
Shrug
I now have no clue how this is going to turn out. But as Hoffman becomes the GOP nominee (effectively) I think his chances increase.

I don't know if there's enough time to get on the air with new media, but I think the point has to be made to Dede's moderate supporters that Hoffman is extreme.  

[ Parent ]
I think it helps Owens
Old line NE Republicans are traditionalists - that's why they still register as Rs - and I believe make up most of the 20% that stuck with DeDe.

It's as if Jacob Javits withdrew in 1980 at this point in the campaign, as some Holtzman supporters pressured him to do -

If he withdrew at the same point in 1980, would that have prevented NY from suffering 18 years of Senator Al D'Amato?

[ Parent ]
My take
Looking at the Siena internals, both Owens and Hoffman are pretty overwhelmingly disliked by Scozzafava supporters. With her name still being on the ballot, it seems like there's a good chance many of them will either vote for her regardless or simply not turn out at all, so this might not change the dynamics of the race as much as we might think - especially with only two days between now and the election.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
I'd guess she'd stilll get >5%
Just a gut feel - lots of traditionalists in NY-23.
[ Parent ]
And many absentee ballots were cast
before she pulled out.
[ Parent ]
That's possible
I'll betcha they resent Hoffman a little more, though.  
[ Parent ]
Couple points on Dede's withdrawl....
1) I think this was all about her protecting her career in the NYS Assembly. A big loss in the special could have lead to a GOP primary if she ran for re-election in 2010 to the Assembly. She was playing good solider and saving the career she has (or even setting up a run for State Senate against Aubertine)

2) Remember a lot of absentee voters have already voted! A lot of these might have been Republicans who would have voted for Hoffman but are now locked into a vote for Dede.

3) This is a special election. Which means people are only going out to vote for this election. So the question of where Dede's vote goes has to include the option of how many of her supporters stay home.

Finally, the big question is how much of her 25% of the vote where establishment Republicans (local Newt Gingrich types)who will just switch to Hoffman vs labor union voters who feel they owed Dede support because of her husband and her pro-union voting record in the NYS Assembly.

Fight global warming & help disaster relief efforts by raising money for Music for Relief when you search the web! Click here for more info:
http://searchmfr.swagbucks.com...

[ Parent ]
Predictions
VA:
McDonnell 58
Deeds 41

McDonnell wins Northern Virginia in a shocker, 52-47.

NJ:
Christie 43
Corzine  43
Daggett  14

Shades of 1993 when Florio's strong comeback at the end fell short.

NY-23
Owens 43
Hoffman 37
Dede 23

I think Hoffman has peaked.

Gay marriage in Maine

No (keep gay marriage law) 52
Yes 48

But it kinda backfires Hoffman's strategy.
His whole point is that they're both liberals.  Plus this allows Owens to make a 48 push back against Hoffman.
Hello, Congressman Hoffman...
All Hoffman needs to do is run up the score with Republicans, and he's got this thing. His lead among Independents will just make the margin all the bigger.

11/3 is looking like a potentially-brutal night for Dems.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Way to bring in the pessimism!
If we limit our losses to one governorship in Virginia, that's not too bad in real terms.  

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
The Races That Interest Me ...
Washington's oracles of conventional wisdom often infuriate me precisely because they so often get it right.

===

Presently Congressional Quarterly considers eleven seats as "tossups" looking ahead to 2010.  

Of these, five are held by first term Democrats who according to Dr. Dean support a robust public option and represent states that voted for W, but switched to Presidential candidate Obama.  

These are Alan Grayson from Florida's 8th; Mary Jo Kilroy from Ohio's 15th; Betsy Markey from Colorado's 4th; Tom Perriello from Virginia's 5th; and Harry Teague from New Mexico's 2nd.

Similarly, the Cook Political Report places twelve races in its "Democratic Toss Up" category.

Like Congressional Quarterly, Cook names Grayson, Kilroy, Markey, Perriello, and Teague.  

But Cook also names Steve Driehaus from Ohio's 1st another public option supporter, says Dr. Dean and adds the open seat race in New Hampshire's 2nd (the Hodes district).

The Rothenberg Political Report identifies 14 races as "Pure Toss-Up".

Rothenberg's list includes Driehaus, Grayson, Kilroy, Teague, Periello, and the open seat in New Hampshire.  

Rothenberg adds Carol Shea-Porter from New Hampshire's 1st, also public option supporter according to Dr. Dean.

I am interested in the fortunes of Grayson, Kilroy, Perriello, and Teague.  

And Driehaus, Markey, and Shea-Porter.  

And I am interested in the New Hampshire open seat race.

===

I am also interested in seven challenger races  in districts where (1) electoral votes went for Bush, then Obama and where (2) the districts were carried by Obama but by Republicans in Congressional candidates.

The Republican Congressmembers at issue are Ileana Ros-Lehtinen from Florida's 18th, Bill Young from Florida's 10th, Tom Latham from Iowa's 4th , Lee Terry from Nebraska 2nd, Pat Tiberi from Ohio's 12th, Randy Forbes from Virginia's 4th, and Frank Wolf from Virginia's 10th.

NRCC to back Hoffman
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

Male, 23, DC-At Large
NY-23
Dede backs Hoffman
Independent party backs Owens
Im predicting
49% Owens
46% Hoffman
5% Scoffava
IA-Gov, this week and every week
Chet Culver announced more details about budget cuts for the current fiscal year. Although Iowa's not doing as badly as many other states, Republicans are slamming alleged Democratic "overspending." The 2010 budget was based on March revenue estimates from a Revenue Estimating Conference, as required by Iowa law. It turns out that the revenues are falling way below those projections, but that's not Culver's fault. It would be idiotic to cut government spending by more than you have to during a severe recession. Republicans are claiming Democrats should have assumed revenues would fall further when they drafted the 2010 budget, but that's not how Iowa's budgeting process works.

In more amusing news from the week, there was a Republican fundraiser and straw poll in Allamakee county, way up in the NE corner of Iowa. Branstad was a no-show (he's been avoiding events where he would have to appear alongside other candidates) and finished fifth in the straw poll of 60-some GOP activists. The winner was State Representative Rod Roberts, who is also an ordained minister. Vander Plaats was planning to come to the Allamakee event but couldn't make it because his son was ill; he finished a close second in the straw poll. The young Christian Fong of Cedar Rapids was third, and State Representative Chris Rants was fourth.

I know you can't read too much into a straw poll, but it seems like Branstad has some work to do with the Republican base.

IA state legislative races
We have a special election coming up in Iowa House district 33, and candidates were selected this week. It should be an easy hold for Democrats, as it's in Cedar Rapids.

One of the tougher Democratic holds next year will be in Iowa Senate district 9, where Republicans have recruited a pretty good candidate and our incumbent is a first-termer.

my first time voting absentee
Does the ballot have to be received by election day or sent by election day?
what state are you in?
Laws may differ. In most places I've heard of, your ballot has to be post-marked on or before election day. In Iowa you can also hand-deliver your absentee ballot on election day.
[ Parent ]
Check your state's Secretary of State/Elections Board website


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
In PA, it has to be in the friday BEFORE election day

[ Parent ]
ugh
i need to stop being so damn lazy
[ Parent ]
Predictions
Here they are:

VA-GOV
McDonnel 55%
Deeds 43%

Deeds barely wins NOVA, does better than Obama in the southwestern part of the state but is CRUSHED in Hamptons Roads and definitely gets less than 40% of the vote in Virginia Beach.

NJ-GOV

Corzine 43%
Christe 40%
Daggett/other 17%

I believe Corzine will be crushed in the shore and NW New Jersey but should win solidly in the cities.

More on New Jersey Governor http://swingstateproject.com/s...

ME Ban on Equal Marriage Rights
Against discrimination of same sex couples 51.5%
For discrimination of same sex couples 48.5%

A recent poll had the pro gay marriage forces winning by nine points. Overall, this will be a close one with a slight Prop 8 effect. With Prop 8, the last few polls had the no side leading by a couple of points. I believe some people did not want to expose their hatred of same sex couples so they said they were voting no on Prop 8. I think the Prop 8 effect should subtract a few points.

NY-23
It is too early to tell where Scoffaza's supporters go.

CA-10
Garamendi 55%
Karmer 45%

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

More Georgia Races
My "who I'm rooting for" cheat sheet:

HD-58: Bell, then Johnson, the McPherson
HD-75: James
HD-129: Davis
HD-141: Black, then Kidd
HD-159: Purcell

SD-01: Hair
SD-35: Torrey Johnson, Sneed, James, Atterbury, Jackson, Crane, Lynch

Atlanta Mayor: Reed, then Borders
Conyers Mayor: Harvey
Kennesaw Council Post 5: Cullins
Marietta Mayor: Bolton
Marietta Council Ward 5: Dodd
Powder Springs Council 3: Hudson


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

Best wishes for a speedy recovery
State Rep. Ed DeLaney is one of the really good guys of Indiana politics.  He represents a diverse, mostly affluent swingish urban/suburban district I used to live in, and his wife Anne DeLaney has been a major player in the Democratic Party here for thirty years.  I've had the opportunity to meet both of them on a few occasions.

Rep. DeLaney is also an attorney, and this morning was apparently going to meet with a new client.  The guy who met him beat him senseless, and apparently tried to shoot him, but the gun wouldn't fire.  It looks like he'll be fine, and the lunatic that beat him was captured (I guess he was still beating on DeLaney when the cops showed up), and is among other things being charged with attempted murder.

Best wishes for a full and quick recovery.

Monmouth Poll Shows what we've been seeing all week
Christie up by only 1, Daggett's support is in a free-fall, his negatives have shot up.
One difference: Christie's favorability numbers have dramatically improved from 40% favorable and 41% unfavorable in mid-October to 44% Favorable and 36% unfavorable

Mid-October in ()
Christie 43% (39)
Corzine 42% (39)
Daggett 8% (14%)
http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...

I've been saying Corzine needs 80% of Dems to win...
...and he's at 77% in this poll. And, he's bleeding nearly 20% of African-Americans to corzine. If he can just shore up these easy hardcore-Dem bases, he'll win this thing.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
He may on E-Day
But Christie seems to be getting around 10% of Dems. I'm surprised those haven't dropped since summer. I guess they don't care he's a Republican at this point. I can't believe he's getting more than Daggett.  
[ Parent ]
Changing my NJ-Gov prediction
44.7% Corzine
44.2% Christie
10.6% Daggett
0.5% Other
Margin of Victory less under 0.5%
New Poll
YouGov/Polimetrix
43% Corzine
41% Christie
8% Daggett

http://twitter.com/MysteryPoll...

An internet poll. . .
(though they've apparently been successful in various european elections).  
[ Parent ]
True
If you check UK Polling Report regularly (as I do), you'll see YouGov polls being reported on all the time.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
YouGov Polimetrix predicted the correct winner in every contest except Indiana in 2008
[ Parent ]
New Jersey Recount and Possible Contest
Have a funny feeling we have one coming.  If this happens and it's going to be WILD -- Wignuttery v the Corzine Checkbook.
The issue with a recount is that
I think the SOS was appointed by Corzine, so if one happens Christie will be screaming conflict of interest.
[ Parent ]
Thing is
he's sorta a fair-weather friend with the whole "conflict of interest" concept. :-P
[ Parent ]
ME-Inititive
 I'm just curious about what you think about the Maine inititive. From my feeling, our side should probably win but still, the Conservatives might get it together and surprise us. The good news (or possibly bad news) is that I just did some phone banking for No on 1 and most of the people I spoke to were supporters who already got called by No on 1. It's good that alot of people were working on No on 1 but it might annoy people so much so they might just not vote or even vote Yes on 1. That happened a bit in the Virginia Gubernatorial primary with McAuliffe.

Anyway, the extra phone banking people for Maine should be helpful because they might remind people to vote and perhaps only a couple people will vote differently in retaliaton to the calls.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

People have serious issues
If they vote for the ban just because the No on 1 campaign called them repeatedly. Take THAT, gays! That will teach you to call me more than once!

In other words I wouldn't worry about it too much.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
Well for a lot of No on 1 supporters
this really isn't a big deal for them and they feel like they're voting No as a favor, so stop bothering them because they aren't effected by it one way or another.

At least that's the sense I got when I was in Maine three weeks ago.  

[ Parent ]
I stopped calling
 Because I think there is enough help on our side already.


for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
I'm sure there are people who think that
But I don't think they'll freak out about being called twice. Two calls in one day might bother them but I think they'll live through two calls in one week.  

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
When you phone bank to GOTV
you are calling voters that you've already IDd as "yours."  
[ Parent ]
Preparing for the onslaught
Thanks, PPP voter screen, for ruining my otherwise tranquil evening.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
The good news is that for most of these races
we have plenty of other polls to look at. I am worried about Maine, though.
[ Parent ]
Ugly for NY-23. n/t

[ Parent ]
Jay Cost has some interesting comments
PPP: Hoffman leads big
In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.

I expected the numbers to be bad, but still, this sucks.

link
[ Parent ]
This is purely a function of their likely voter model
They admit as much. They're making the same set of assumptions about the electorate as the CfG pollster.

But no one knows who the likely voters actually are. When Nate Silver refuses to venture a guess, you know things are muddled.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

[ Parent ]
Well, we'll see if this is anywhere close to reality
Who knows.  
[ Parent ]
I dont believe the PPP poll
This district gave Kerry 47%(in a republican leaning year) and Gore 47% (in a neutral year). There is no way they would elect a right wing extremist by double digits.
[ Parent ]
Doug Hoffman is a lot like Andy Harris in MD-1
McCain carried MD-1 with 58% of the vote and yet Andy Harris was to conservative to be elected in that red district. I still do not this Hoffman wins, the idea at this point would be rediculous. I think PPP is trying to prove that their polling is not affected by their politics on this one.
My prediction
50% Owens
47% Hoffman
3% Scozzafava
[ Parent ]
If we had two more weeks
I think Hoffman would lose as his wingnuttia gets exposed.  But I'm not sure that most people in that district know that this guy is a complete wingnut.  They probably think he is a garden variety NY Republican like D'Amato, Pataki or Guiliani, and Dede was a liberal Republican.
[ Parent ]
How do you know he's not a garden variety conservative?......
What positions does he have or what has he said or done that puts him out of step with scores of conservative Republican Congressmen who are considered ordinary conservatives?

My observation has been that Hoffman is a garden variety conservative who has been adopted by extremist nutbags, and who welcomes that adoption so he can win, but not that he's so crazy as all that.

Now, he certainly may be unprepared to be a Congressman, lacking knowledge of district and national issues and otherwise not educated in what a well-prepared Congressional candidate should know, but those are different issues from being an extremist freak.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Garden variety conservatives in NY
don't tell stand by their purity and oppose all earmarks.  They don't their district to fuck off.

There are only a few, such as Jim Demint and Tom Coburn, who are so strident in their view of pork and earmarks that they refuse to accept it for their district/state.  And most of them are extremist of the extremist wingnuts.

Dede was out of the mainstream for the GOP nationally, and I can see why Repubs were angry that she had been nominated.  Hoffman is out of the mainstream of New York, and even among general NY Repubs.  

[ Parent ]
The question is whether people in this district
know that he is an extremist wingnut or whether they think he is like Pataki or D'Amato.

I think if we had another two weeks, Hoffman would have went down in flames.

[ Parent ]
Hoffman is probably worse than Musgrave

[ Parent ]
Your right
He's certainly not s Rockefeller Republican that's for sure. He'll probally rank up there with the top wingnuts in Congress like Bachmann, Flake and Broun.
[ Parent ]
Maybe, well find soon
Regardless if he wins, two things will happen.

1. He will be exposed as the wingnut he is and lose the general election in '10

or

2. Once redistricting comes around they gerrymander him out of Congress. Don't matter how you look at it, Doug Hoffman's time in the U.S. House will be brief.

[ Parent ]
Now Christie with a biggish lead
Maybe there was just something bad about polling on Halloween.  
Link, please
n/t

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
It's right there are PPP's page

[ Parent ]
This is not believable
They have Obama's approval rating at 45% in New Jersey!!!! Rasmussen had it at 59% a couple weeks ago. I'm sorry but this is simply just not believable.
[ Parent ]
Shurg
We'll know soon enough.
[ Parent ]
Nevermind, found it
Lovely.  PP f***ing P strikes again.  Can't wait for the Intrade numbers tomorrow.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
PPP is nothing but bad news tonight
Trying to brace myself for Maine.

On the bright side, we only have to fret over whether the poll results are real or not for about a day. Then we can find out for ourselves.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
As I thought
51-47 Yes on 1. Largest lead they've ever had I think. And their first lead period for quite a while.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
I'm banking on this weekend
just being a bad one on which to poll. We'll see.
[ Parent ]
PPP utterly screws the pooch
Hey PPP, you don't poll Democrats on
1) halloween
2) new Years' Eve
3) Friday nights

and you don't poll Republicans
1) Sunday morning

Absolutely worthless polls here.  PPP is a nice outfit but this is nothing but poor pathetic methodology.  They made a grade school level mistake.

[ Parent ]
PPP thinks polling on Halloween is OK
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...


Thanks for staying up with us. Unless Democrats really have an aversion to answering polls on Halloween weekend (wasn't a problem last year)

Perhaps that is the flaw. Last year, Halloween was on a Friday, so last year's weekend was all aftermath.

[ Parent ]
They are just hopelessly in denial
PPP is really embarrassing itself now.

Halloween, on a Saturday.  Party all day and all night.  What planet do these guy live on?

PPP, do you poll Christian evangelicals on Sunday morning, yes or no?  Do you think that there is no difference between polling on Sunday mornings and Saturday afternoons?


[ Parent ]
Halloween
Didn't we have some odd poll numbers on Halloween last year too?
As they will any year
Polling on Halloween is close to literally moronic.
[ Parent ]
It's scaaaaary.
They should make Halloween a national holiday, and screw Columbus Day.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
PPP results are just not believable
According to them Obama has 45% approval among NJ electorate, which is only 3-4% less Democratic than the 2008 election. Gallup says Obama's approvals are 55%, I find it hard to believe that NJ is 10% less democratic than the nation. And that's not even taking into consideration that Obama is far more liked in the the north east than anywhere else.

And Obama's numbers in NY-23 is -13 approval rating. Which is off by a net of 30% according to Gallup, not even taking into consideration that Obama is well liked in the north east? And the electorate is 15% less democratic than the nation? The electorate certainly COULD be like that. But I highly doubt that it will be that bad.

BTW I really don't understands how PPPs Approval numbers of Obama are so low compared to the electorate or compared to other pollsters.  

not the state as a whole
but among voters who are more likely to vote, which at this point is Republicans and Independents
[ Parent ]
That's what I'm saying
If you look that the Obama vote of the electorate, the approval rating is still low. And I just don't get that. For example I don't understand how an electorate which gave Obama 53% of their vote has a 45% approval rating, when Obama has a higher approval rating than the vote he got on Nov 4th, especially outside the south.
[ Parent ]
I doubt that is the case in a machine state
like New Jersey.  The Democratic machines will crank out the base vote.
[ Parent ]
Even granting that (and I don't for NY-23)
It's still really hard to swallow.

Not to mention that there is no particular reason to think that a +11 Obama electorate (New Jersey) would have such a low opinion of Obama and would be so willing to vote Republican. These polls have a lot wrong with them, and should probably not be taken too seriously (it surprises me, because PPP is usually a pretty good pollster).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
Why go with the crowd?
I say...

Owens 50%
Hoffman 40%
Scozzafava 10%

However, I fully admit I am still trying to wrap my head around the bizarre events of the past few days.  Just a week ago I was saying I'd eat my shirt if Scozzafava came in third, now we're seriously entertaining the notion that Hoffman might actually win.  I have absolutely no clue how this race will turn out, only a hunch and hope.

You may be able to excuse yourself from eating your shirt if you argue that
Scozz wouldn't actually finish.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Then I shall do that
this has been the craziest congressional election I've ever seen.  I consider myself to be a fairly hardcore election nerd to the point that nothing should shock me, but this race has completely blown my mind.
[ Parent ]
I agree
it gives me headaches
[ Parent ]
that sounds about right


26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
The PPP-NJ poll is an absolute nightmare for Corzine...
...where there aren't enough undecideds left for him to even catch up. I feel like Christie's headed toward a narrow win, but one just large enough for a recount not to be necessary; like a 2% margin.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
You feel like every Republican alive
Will win on election day so what else is new with you and your pessimism.
[ Parent ]
Hey, he's not nearly as bad as UpstateDem/Kent
Here's his latest turd at MyDD

http://www.mydd.com/story/2009...

Two new polls show that Democrats are about to get a major ass kicking on Tuesday night.  They show that Republican Chris Christie will defeat Jon Corzine for reelection in New Jersey and that Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman will be overwhelmingly elected as the next Congressman from New York's 23rd district.  

http://www.publicpolicypolling... PP_Release_NJ_1101513.pdf

http://www.publicpolicypolling... PP_Release_NY23_1101424.pdf

Democrats are going to come out of this election with a mere 26-24 advantage in governorships and a greatly revitalized Republican party.

I blame President Obama for this.  He has spent the last 10 months wasting his time trying to look bipartisan and in the end its gotten him not a single big accomplishment.  Healthcare reform is probably dead and so is anything else that he planned on doing.  

After what this President has done to us, I dont think we should help him a bit for reelection in 2012.  Let him sink and get him off our backs.



[ Parent ]
heh
In this instance, Upstate Dem sounds suspiciously like my Id.  
[ Parent ]
I do think it's likely Dems get wiped out Tuesday
but this is not a national election, so you can really judge anything from it.

This has more to do with specific candidates plus the Democratic base sitting home because, well, as someone told me last week "Politics was sooooo 2008"

[ Parent ]
Lots of factors at work
But of course, the id is by definition not into subtlety.  
[ Parent ]
I think it's hysterical
the whole "It's all Obama's fault, DUMP HIM NOW!" whine from Kent.

How the hell did this guy survive 1994?

[ Parent ]
probably too young
at the time.

party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Exactly
Bet we wouldn't get wiped in VA or NJ is Deeds knew how to campaign and Corzine wasn't on the ballot. Seriously, if we pull it out in NJ and Corzine I pray to God this is the last time we have to worry about him in politics again.
[ Parent ]
God is Upstate Dem a whiner and a pessist
I remember his posts on Daily Kos after the 2008 election and after Joe Cao beat Bill Jefferson in LA, he was saying the end is near for the Dems.

One thing I hate is people whatever it's a GOPer or a Dem that constantly whine about their party or is a pessimist about their candidates without adding anything substantive to the conversation on how to change. We should abandon Obama in 2012 so we can get him off our backs? Sir i'm trying to be nice, but your a thoughtless asshole. And BTW upstate, healthcare reform is far from dead, but hey since the guy is so glass half empty he wouldn't know it wouldn't he.

[ Parent ]
Interesting Politico article about the Dems courting of Dede
http://www.politico.com/news/s...

One thing that stood out: between the time Dede dropped out and the time she endorsed Owens Democratic leaders were convinced Owens was a goner.  Now they think he has a shot.    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


ME-Question 1
And to pile on the bad news, the PPP results for Question 1 in Maine are just as depressing.  51%-47%!!!

The only glimmer of hope: the odd result that voters under 30 opposed the hateful messure by only 51-48.  I'm hoping all the liberal youngens were out at Halloween parties or out on the streets of Maine or at early voting sites, because young voters should not so close.  That's almost 50/50!  I can't believe that number! Can someone tell me if that's even realistic in New England?!?!?!

This is the best result for Yes
The R2000 poll for comparison had it 41-55 in favor of No for the same demographic. The top line was 47-48.
[ Parent ]
Deeds Closes Gap in PPP Poll
He's now down by only 14 points, not 15 pts like in the last survey.
http://twitter.com/ppppolls/st...
LOL


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
LOL!


My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
That's to be expected
Deeds always surges at the end! One point comeback!  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
This is why I trust Quinnipiac in New Jersey over PPP
"PPP's polls are "different" in a couple of ways: firstly, they're automated ("robocall") polls, and secondly, they use registered voter lists which they purchase from states or third parties, rather than the random digit dial (RDD) method. PPP did pretty well in 2008 and I have a high opinion of them. This year, in spite of being mainly a Democratic polling firm, they've shown better numbers for Republicans than most other pollsters -- both in NY-23 and elsewhere."
---Nate Silver
In order for Dems to have a reasonably good night
on Tuesday, PPP is essentially going to have to strike out. I'm not betting on that--though it would make me happy.
[ Parent ]
Sounds like this might lag the electorate


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
[ Parent ]
Feels like PPP has Zogby disease
If they happen to be right, we'll reassess on Wed. But I think they got Zogby's algorithm on these polls.
What's nice is we will see which polls were right tomorrow night.
That being said I don't think Dede's endorsement is going to flip this election. She was dive bombing and with only a day before the election its hard to see a big swing. Also PPP is usually a firm I turn to when Rasmussen depresses me so now I'm just accpeting it's going to be a rough night.  
It's not going to be that rough
Jesus Christ. But yeah PPP is a good polling poll, but when you poll on the wrong night like what they did, it dosen't make for a reliable poll, sorry.
[ Parent ]
You mean for NY-23?
For NY-23 I understand the argument the dynamics have changed. But those PPP numbers show ugly numbers in VA, NJ,and Maine. If we lose 3 of 4 thats a bad night in my book. Here in VA, what I care about most, anyone but a blinded optimist sees it's going to be a blowout.
[ Parent ]
No I meant for NJ-Gov and NY-23
The rest are shaping up to be a total trainwreck.
[ Parent ]
Pick-a-Poll
Dont like Ras, ok dont like PPP anymore, how about Q, nope dont like that one anymore...maybe Zogby?  Indies will break for Christie in NJ.
[ Parent ]
I don't like when polling companies don't do their jobs properly
Sorry if you don't like that but it's true. As far as i'm concerned NJ is a deadheat and judging about the round of polls we been seeing, the indies arent breaking for anyone by a wide margin.
[ Parent ]
Quinnipiac according to Chuck Todd
42-40-12 Christie.
Link
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x128...

More than a third of Daggett voters may still change their mind and Corzine leads amongst those voters by double digits. Looks like the trend is back to Christie. Can the Jersey machine save Corzine?

[ Parent ]
Looking at the internals
There are the votes out there to take this. The undecideds are in the geographical areas Corzine does best in as well as Democrats and women.
[ Parent ]
Parallels in the Daggett polling...
As Corzine's taken the lead among Daggett second-choicers, Daggett's overall numbers have declined in favor of Christie. This tells me that, in all likelihood, a good chunk of former Daggett voters have already fled for the Christie camp.

This is the second-consecutive poll to show Corzine garnering only 77% of the Dem vote. I still believe he needs at least 80% to win, but a 15% margin among Indies for Christie means he'll even need a little more. Twice as many women are undecided as men, which could help Corzine, but when you consider the # of Republicans/Indies and Dems that are undecided, it's basically a wash in nobody's favor.

Current predix...
Christie - 46%
Corzine - 45%
Daggett - 9%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Lets see what other polls say

[ Parent ]
Chuck Todd's predictions (via Twitter)
"In sports betting style, how does this look? VA GOV spread, McDonnell 11 1/2; NJ GOV, Corzine 1; NY 23, Hoffman 8; NYC, Bloomberg 9."
NY-23: Hoffman up 5
See thread below
Nugget - "First Read has learned that Scozzafava is now taping robo-calls for Owens."  
[ Parent ]
Eerily quiet here right now.
Monmouth Corzine +2

http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...

Survey USA Christie +3

http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

All down to turnout
I'd give a narrow edge to Christie.  
[ Parent ]
I'm giving a narrow edge to Christie
n/t

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Another one.
Democracy Corps Corzine +4

http://www.democracycorps.com/...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Intersting
Fingers crossed!  
[ Parent ]
According to SUSA
those who have already vote favor Corzine 50-38-9.
[ Parent ]
Is SUSA the only pollster
who asks if respondents have already voted?

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
No
apparently Monmouth did too.  They found fewer (6%) who had already voted but a wider margin for Corzine (52-31 from memory).

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
WI-2: No one seems to care about 2010 races in this thread, but...
Tammy Baldwin has a primary challenger:

http://www.wispolitics.com/ind...

His name is Dave de Felice, and he's a Dane County Supervisor and state legislative staffer. His boss, Sen. Spencer Coggs, is currently running for Lt. Gov.

He says he's going to run as a Proxmire/La Follette independent progressive, which to me, frankly, sounds like he's going to take all the things that make Feingold a pain in the ass (mostly budget hawkery) but without the progressive ass-kicking that more than makes up for it.

This could turn into a race if the primary gets moved back because of the military ballots law. UW-Madison is in the district, and if the primary is pushed back too early, students won't be back on campus yet. Throughout her career, from her time as a county supervisor, then a state rep, and now in Congress, Tammy has always had the campus in her district, and relied on campus turnout to see her through tough races.

I read she had a challenger
I wouldn't worry about it. Baldwin is a good progressive that hasn't done anything to get the boot. She's safe.
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 207 comments

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