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SSP Daily Digest: 10/30

by: James L.

Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 5:34 PM EDT


PINCH HITTER EDITION.

• AR-Sen: A new R2K poll for the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democracy For America is yet another bad omen for Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln: she's only beating state Sen. Gilbert Baker by a 41-39 margin.

• NC-Sen: An Elon University poll finds GOP Sen. Richard Burr with crappy re-elects (19-42), while the latest Civitas poll shows Burr leading Democrat Elaine Marshall by 43-33.

• CA-10: In yet another sign that the Democratic base is taking a prolonged ganja break, Democrat John Garamendi, California's Lt. Governor, is only leading Republican David Harmer by 50-40 in SurveyUSA's final poll of the race. Obama won this CD by a 65-33 margin last year.

• FL-02: Republicans have added a second challenger to the mix against Blue Dog Allen Boyd. Attorney Charlie Ranson is joining funeral home chain-owner Steve Southerland in the GOP primary.

• NY-23: Under normal circumstances, I would have said that ex-Gov. George Pataki was breaking ranks by endorsing Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman over Republican DeDe Scozzafava, but considering that RNC Chair Michael Steele came out today tacitly cheering Hoffman on, it seems that the GOP establishment itself is leaving Scozzafava out in the cold. Democrats, meanwhile, have deployed Joe Biden to campaign with Bill Owens in South Memphis Watertown on Monday.

• VA-05: The GOP field taking on frosh Dem Rep. Tom Perriello has gotten a little bit slimmer today, as "grassroots" candidate Bradley Rees is attempting to switch his candidacy over to the Virginia Conservative Party ticket. In any event, get a good look at this guy's mug.

• SC-Gov: GOP Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer, a guy with few friends in the Republican establishment, has just opened up a gubernatorial campaign account. I guess we can expect a formal announcement soon.

• Congress: Tons of lawmakers, including quite a few in bright blue jumpsuits, are under investigation for ethical misconduct.

• Midterms: Joe Lieberman is still an asshole, in case you have forgotten. The Rave Master himself says that he expects to share some of his Joementum with GOP candidates next year through his personal endorsement.

• Voting: Chuck Schumer's legislation mandating that military and overseas voters get at least 45 days to return their ballots came into force as part of the defense spending bill that President Obama signed into law on Wednesday. As we noted previously, this could force a number of states to push their primaries earlier. Green Papers has a list of potentially affected states. (D)
James L. :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/30
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/30 | 61 comments
SC-Gov
I rather like our chances against Bauer.  This is a definite sleeper race.  Combined with GA-Gov and AL-Gov, there are three deep South governor contests where everyone seems to expect the Republican to win yet they have terrible candidates.

If we manage to snag FL-Gov as well, the map may look very different in 2010.

I doubt Bauer will win the primary
or place second.  McMaster, Barrett, Bauer.  Bauer has some baggage on his irresponsible use of vehicles on the roads and in the air in SC.  Plus he has that whole Charlie Crist "too metrosexual not to be gay" thing going, which won't help in an SC Republican primary.
[ Parent ]
Yep
One thing I do hate; is how every Georgia poll doesn't poll what if general elections. I want more info.
[ Parent ]
Quite frankly
the GOP could nominate a guy off the street in those three states and would have a good chance of winning the races.  

An midterm election with a black liberal President in the White House is a great situation for the GOP in Deep South states.

[ Parent ]
Good thing
the gubernatorial candidates have nothing to do with Obama then and the GOP would be extremely hard pressed to tie them to him.
[ Parent ]
CA-10: Has as much to do with Garamendi's non-popularity
as any 'ganja break'.

What we don't need is yet another retread to bore the base into a coma, especially one who is viewed as part of the Sacramento cesspool.

Amen to that
Garamendi's a two-faced carpetbagger and, in my humble opinion, a complete and total schmuck....easy to see why the base would be totally indifferent to his candidacy. Personally, I'd vote for Harmer if I lived in the district, in the hopes that a new primary for 2010 would produce a candidate who wasn't as douchey.  
[ Parent ]
You are aware that no one gives a crap about him being a "Carperbaagger" right?
If anyone in CA did, CA-04 wouldn't of relected Tom McClintock who carpetbagged 400 miles upstate to get that seat. All Garamendi did was travel a couple of miles so your angry rant is moot.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't he or someone else have like half his ranch in 10
and the other half in 03?

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
VA-05
This guy must have been emboldened by Hoffman right?  Let the right wing, third party games continue.  I love it!
bingo
thats certaintly my opinion.  This will be the year of the 3rd party super conservatives.  

Of course, this can be far over stated.  Even with Rammell and Richardson on the ballot, we still didn't come close in Idaho with LaRocco...so lets not get too excited just yet.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
Maybe
Rees makes no mention of Hoffman in his press release but it seems like Hoffman's candidacy could have played a role. I'm sure the fact Rees admitted that he was a "reluctant Republican" who was unhappy with much of the party probably played a large part in this decision, as well as the fact there's going to be a convention for the GOP nod. Can you imagine him in a convention format? If you've seen video of him speaking, he fits in with the Tea Party crowd far better than a room full of suits.
[ Parent ]
Actually
it's more anti-Robert Hurt sentiment than anything. Rees has been threatening to go third party if the NRCC "anoints" a candidate (translation: railroads Hurt through the primary/convention) for a while now.

Also, I've never heard of the "Virginia Conservative Party" until today.

[ Parent ]
spread the meme - the big 4
There will be 4 (not 3 or 2) big elections on Election Day:
CA-10 (don't forget to include this one)
NY-23
NJ-Gov
VA-Gov
If the Dems win 3 out of these 4 then we can claim the Dems won Election Day.
ME Question 1
Add the vote on Maine's question 1 to the list. A "No" vote would be really big.
[ Parent ]
Amen.
After California's debacle, I'd love to see Maine stuck it to the bigots who use religion as an excuse to be a shitty human being.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Well:
We should win CA-10.  We'll likely lose VA-Gov.  So, we need to run the table in the other two.  I think we'll win NJ-Gov.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Don't forget GA-HD-141
Obviously pales in comparison to all of that, but a loss there fits into an annoying narrative of WE'RE DOOMED!!! OMG!!!  

(I have a diary talking about this hella-interesting race).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Don't say hella.
[ Parent ]
Sorry. I did feel my IQ drop afterwards after saying it.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
What's wrong with hella?
Would you prefer wicked or perhaps wicked pissah?
[ Parent ]
Newsom Drops out of CA-Gov
No complaints from this Californian
I like Newsom but think he'd have been a terrible candidate.  Plus I'm not sure he'd be the right person to clean up the mess we've gotten ourselves into.

I liked Brown though I'm not sold on him.  Hopefully someone else viable will run a nice (non-mudslinging) campaign to give California Democrats a good choice.  

[ Parent ]
Go Jerry
Jerry Brown's gonna kill Meg Whitman like Bob McDonnell will do to Creigh Deeds and happy times will be back in California! (The GOP primary is going to be fun to watch, let's see who tries to out right the other)
[ Parent ]
It just occurred to me
Jerry Brown = Terry Branstad.

At least in terms of similar names and campaign narratives.

[ Parent ]
Except Branstad is in a state that leans
to the other party, and Brown is in a state which Obama carried by 24%.
[ Parent ]
I can't wait! eom.


Check out the 2010 California races (http://2010californiaracetracker.wetpaint.com) and help us take back Red California! (http://www.takebackredcalifornia.org)
[ Parent ]
And yet another piece falls into place for Jerry Brown.

[ Parent ]
I could see California become the GOP's Virginia
Actually there are some striking similarities:

Presumptive Dem Nominee: AG Jerry Brown
GOP Front runner with boatloads of money: Meg Whitman
The GOP attack dog: Steve Poizner
The GOP insurgent: Tom Campbell

[ Parent ]
Nice ironic observation
Maybe we ought to stop automatically assuming it'll be Whitman.  She's going to be making rookie mistakes, and her handlers can't hide her forever.

At least the other 2 Repubs have run campaigns before (though not in really competitive races).
Also, Campbell running blog-ads on lefty political blogs is odd, (but I guess the way they work you can't always control where those things pop up).

[ Parent ]
Good news, even if stating the obvious
Newsom never had any chance.  At least now he won't be wasting money attacking Brown.

It's unlikely a quality candidate will emerge to take on Brown, but if one does, that would be good news too.

[ Parent ]
I hope Fienstien runs, resigns from her senate seat, and looses the primary.
[ Parent ]
Ah, we can dream can't we... :)
n/t
[ Parent ]
She's risen to a terrific committee chairmanship
that no one in their right mind would give up.
Especially in exchange for the chance of a truly God-awful job: being the CA Gov. for the next four years.

Also, as old as Jerry Brown is (71), Feinstein is much older, by five years (76).

[ Parent ]
I hope someone jumps into fill the gap.
Because, disregarding redistricting, a Brown governorship, probably would only be marginally better than Ahnold.

Not that Newsom was much better.

[ Parent ]
A second Jerry Brown governorship, that is.
His dad was great.
[ Parent ]
Disregarding redistricting?
That is the fundamental reason why I want to win this race.
[ Parent ]
I'm just saying that I don't think he would make a very good governor.
I would vote for him just for partisan redistricting, but if it looks like we're getting another round of incumbent protection I'd rather take my chances with a compromise or court-drawn map.

Personally I want to win this race so we can fix the state, but seeing as it doesn't look like Brown is going to do that, redistricting will have to do.

[ Parent ]
We won't get another round
of incumbent protection.  Incumbent protection is a GOP gerrymander, and Pelosi and Obama won't accept that.
[ Parent ]
I hope so.
But it's what we got last time and the CDP never fails to disappoint me.
[ Parent ]
I think he's looking Senate 2012
He's good friends with Feinstein and has increased his name recognition enough that he would be the front runner in any Democratic primary against Sanchez or Vilaraigosa. He's too young and ambitious to have dropped out this early without a future plan.
[ Parent ]
If he is, he needs glasses
Newsom has no future political career.
[ Parent ]
This is great news for CA Dems
A race with Newsom could've been a dead heat. With Jerry, it should be an easy victory, no matter who the GOP nominee is.
[ Parent ]
NY-23 Siena should be out tomorrow (Sat) 10a Eastern Time
http://www.watertowndailytimes...

It should be released at http://www.siena.edu/sri

Hopefully Hoffman has peaked - otherwise I don't think Biden would be up there (instead of South NJ - where I'd get Biden to campaign if I were Jon Corzine.)

That was my thought re Biden
Though maybe they think the president will be enough in Jersey. Sen. Gillibrand is in the district today. I suspect she is popular up there.
[ Parent ]
Gillibrand has a lot to gain with an Owens win
w/r/t credibility with the party - it would help Ds have confidence that Kirsten has upstate covered.
[ Parent ]
Good point
I have to say, I'm starting to come around on Kirsten. She's (smartly) moving to the left to head off a primary challenge with shifts on gay rights, guns and health care (and frankly, to better represent blue New York). If she can help capture yet another House seat, I'd say she's looking pretty secure. And if I were Chris Lee, the sole surviving Republican upstate, I would be very, very worried.  
[ Parent ]
An Owens win solidifies Chris Lee
There is no way that the Dems can eliminate him and not put several Dems at risk.
[ Parent ]
If Lee survives 2010, n/t

[ Parent ]
He will
NY-26 was solidly for McCain.
[ Parent ]
If in 2010 Obama is very popular
and Lee is seen as a useless foot-dragger then he is vulnerable.
[ Parent ]
You still need a decent candidate
and the Dems simply don't have one in that heavily GOP district.

This district is much more Repub than NY-20 or NY-23.

[ Parent ]
Here is how you get rid of Chris Lee
New York gerrymander map
Split Buffalo in 2, give half to Higgins and half to Lee, the district becomes too Democratic for Lee to win it.  
[ Parent ]
This map would put Owens and Murphy in the same district
Any way to get rid of Lee while leaving every Dem with a seat?  (Not saying that getting rid of Owens is necessarily a bad thing, OTOH)
[ Parent ]
I've changed my mind
I think Hoffman's surge and strong finish has done the needed damage to the GOP.  I don't think it will necessarily take a win by Hoffman.
I think teabaggers will either take over the GOP or will run third party candidacies throughout the country, making it impossible for the GOP to nominate moderates.  It may also open the door to either the nomination of Sarah Palin, or a third party candidacy by Palin.

The above is going to happen regardless of whether Hoffman wins or loses narrowly to Owens.  Given that, I would like to see the Dems have some bragging rights on election day, and thus I'm now rooting for Owens.  

[ Parent ]
Glad to have you back on Board,
and I agree Hoffman squeezing Dede out is good news for the Dems at least for 2010.
[ Parent ]
They're out
Owens 36%
Hoffman 35%
Scozzafava 20%
[ Parent ]
NYC-Mayor: Bloomberg up 11
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

Once again, the internals are rather odd; if Thompson's ahead by 6 in Brooklyn, he should be ahead by 6 in Manhattan, winning by 15 in The Bronx and only losing the overall election by a few points.

SUSA's internals have been all over the place this year
I don't know why. Small subsample sizes, maybe.
[ Parent ]
Their internals are all over the place every year
But on balance they are still the most accurate pollster out there.
[ Parent ]
IIRC
In a lot of states they were out of sync with most polls till the last week when they fell into place.  
[ Parent ]
SSP Daily Digest: 10/30 | 61 comments

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