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NY-23 Roundup

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 27, 2009 at 3:26 PM EDT


• One more poll released in this race today, and like yesterday's Club for Growth poll, it's another poll from a Republican pollster on behalf of a fringe-right group: Neighborhood Research (the Rick Shaftan-run New Jersey-based pollsters who were right-winger Steve Lonegan's pollster in the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary) for the Minuteman PAC (the Minutemen have enough money to commission a poll? that may be the most newsworthy thing in the whole story...). They put up similar numbers as yesterday's CfG poll, with Conservative Doug Hoffman leading at 34, Democrat Bill Owens at 29, and Republican Dede Scozzafava dwindling at 14. At any rate, now Pollster.com has enough data to put together some trendlines for the race (no surprise: Owens and Hoffman going up fast, Scozzafava nosediving). There's also some interesting back-and-forth between Nate Silver and Pollster's Mark Blumenthal on just how much salt to take these two polls with.

• In the endorsement parade, Hoffman continues to rack 'em in, from Representatives that no one in the 23rd has ever heard of -- Georgia's John Linder, worried that Scozzafava would give Nancy Pelosi bipartisan cover, and SSP's favorite punching bag, Oklahoma's Tom Cole, who, reprising his role as master strategist, understands that Scozzafava has no reasonable shot of winning anymore. The New York Post's very conservative editorial page also endorsed Hoffman, and Fred Thompson (who was one of the first name-brand Republicans to endorse Hoffman) awoke from his slumbers long enough to cut a TV spot on behalf of Hoffman. Even Michael Barone (editor of the Almanac of American Politics) got in the act today, playing the ACORN card against Scozzafava.

• Newt Gingrich, however, is left holding the establishment GOP's standard by himself and is doubling down on Scozzafava, decrying the "purge" and saying that supporting a spoiler is the best way to strengthen Pelosi's hand. The Hill picks up on this growing divide today when looking at NY-23 in the context of the GOP's 0-for-4 streak at holding contested House special elections (IL-14, MS-01, LA-06, NY-20 -- with the first three all seeing nasty, contested primaries, and even NY-20 distinguished by an insider pick that didn't ignite the base).

• Finally, kudos to our own silver spring, whose now-seminal diary "The Amazing History of NY-23" (if one can accuse an SSP diary of actually being "seminal") showed how the core of the 23rd hasn't been represented by a Democrat since 1850. That diary got a citation in the New York Times today.
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NY-23 Roundup | 87 comments
Please tell me Owens and the DCCC
Are going after Hoffman on earmarks.
This is the current DCCC anti-Hoffman ad

[ Parent ]
In case the ad doesn't show up on your screen
[ Parent ]
Hoffman's face
OMG!!...He does look like he just survived a 6 hour masturbation session!
[ Parent ]
Is this kind of stuff really necessary?
This is really Faux News type crap.
[ Parent ]
Here's a link to some NYS D direct mail v. Hoffman
http://www.observer.com/2009/p...

Paints Hoffman as an outsourcer, someone who supports privatizing Social Security, & a deregulator of Wall Street.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/2175...

[ Parent ]
I think they should be explicit
With regard to his stance on earmarks meaning the closure of Fort Drum.
[ Parent ]
We may see if it comes out of tonights' debate
in Plattsburgh - Owens and Scozzafava have committed to attend - Hoffman happens to be in town too, but hasn't yet committed, ref http://www.northcountrypublicr...  
[ Parent ]
Blumenthal's article seems a fair rebuttal
to Nate Silver's suspicions that there's something fishy about that CfG sponsored poll.
So apparently the effects of Scozzafava's lack of funds, along with Palin's endorsement of Hoffman, is really showing up in the responses.
There is NO WAY in hell
Hoffman can win this seat!! He doesn't even live in the district and frankly has no local support (just outsiders parachuting in like zealous kamikaze nitwits). This is such a moderate ancestrally Northeast GOP district, that was probably going to become Dem anyway (like most of its kind in and around the East Coast). Owens will probably win, in part due to votes from GOPers sad that Dede is being pounded or fearful of a Hoffman victory! NY State is JUST NOT Palin/CfG territory..I mean Obama won the district for Pete's sakes.

On more thing, is it just me, or does Hoffman's face look like he just completed a 6 hour masturbation session? The guy is so creepy, I'm afraid to let me children near him...and I'm all the way in Texas.

[ Parent ]
Nothing is impossible ...
Hoffman CAN win, so can Owens.  I think it's a pretty good bet Dede Sofa won't, that I will concede.  

These polls are suspecious, but until a credible one comes out that is post-Dede meltdown, you can't rule anything out.

If Hoffman does win, then the GOP split will widen.  So by losing, Democrats could still win.

My preference is a narrow Owens win with Hoffman in a close second with Dede Sofa far behind.  That would be the best of both worlds.

Pelosi and Reid better have a vote before Tuesday, because if Democrats lose the three offices in Va (very likely), lose NY-23 (possible but much less likely) and lose New Jersey (nearly a 50-50 proposition) then Health care is in serious jeopardy.    

[ Parent ]
anyone know where the next poll will be out?
this race is a lot more interesting that VA-Gov and NJ-Gov; it's too bad that the latter are getting all the polling.
[ Parent ]
Possible analogy=1970 NY US Senate election
Buckley, the arch-conservative won by less than 3 pts when the liberal vote was split btw the liberal incumbent republican Charles Goodell and the Democrat Dick Ottinger. Buckley failed to win relection (this time as the GOP nominee) when he lost to Daniel Patrick Moynihan by 10 points.

So yes there is history for a Hoffman win, though that was 1970s NY not 21st century. Here, however, I think Hoffman is running in a district he has no attachments too and frankly as a spoiler who was already screened and rejected by the local GOP.

I actually think Dede will narrowly beat Hoffman for second place (she is that well known locally and has a lot of history there). If as I suspect, Hoffman is hoping to garner the GOP nomination in 2010, Owens will thrash him handily, with, I bet you, an endorsement from Dede for the Dem. This district just isn't cut out for Hoffman.  

[ Parent ]
What if Dede dips into Owens' base?
That is, if Scozzafava and Owens are splitting all of the Democratic/Independent/moderate GOP votes, maybe it could give Hoffman an opening to win?  It is a possibility.
[ Parent ]
That would explain this:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee came to that conclusion yesterday as well, training their fire on Hoffman with their latest attack ad, which never mentioned Scozzafava.

(from the Politico link in the post.)  http://www.politico.com/blogs/...
[ Parent ]
Why does everyone
talk about the positives of a Hoffman win as opposed to a Scozzafava win?  Proving the uber conservatives wrong, depressing them for the 2010 elections and getting a more moderate Republican elected as opposed to a wing-nut, sounds just as likely as everyone else's predictions for if Hoffman won and moves the over-all House ideology to the left as Scozzafava is seemingly more liberal than McHugh.
[ Parent ]
I'm not in the "everyone" category
I agree with you - I don't see positives in a Hoffman victory. While I much prefer an Owens win, a Scozzafava win (or even a strong 2nd) would do much to temper the wingnut attempt to take over the R machinery.

In addition, with Hoffman in 3rd, the - ah - most troublesome of our blue dogs would have fewer excuses to pander.

[ Parent ]
I agree completely with Andrew and tietack......
A Hoffman win is bad, bad, bad.  It just encourages every House and Senate Republican to toe an ideologically pure conservative line on every vote, no matter personal sentiments.

This already has been happening all year.  Political news reports said around the time of the stimulus bill Senate vote that there were Republican Senators who admitted privately that they were OK with the bill, didn't love it but were OK enough to have voted FOR it but for fear of the conservative base.

A Hoffman win now just says "even in New York State toe the conservative line or die."

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
And that is important because ... ??
....the stimulus passed didn't it?

Dr. Frankenstein created his monster and now he can deal with it.  Sooner or later someone in the GOP is going to have to stand up to the dittoheads.  They didn't have a problem with them in 2000 and 2004. The 'establishment' took their money and their votes without a qalm.  Now they are paying the price. You reap what you sow.    

If Democrats can exploit the rift, so be it.  If the situation were reversed, you know they wouldn't hestitate to do so.  Let the GOP be pushed to a ledge, and Democrats can hold the left and the center.    

The battle for the heart and soul of the GOP is going to happen soooner or later(2012).  It might as well be now.      

[ Parent ]
toe the line or die
exactly!!!  

Charlie Crist won't do that, but Rubio will and the only shot we have at the Florida Senate seat is if Rubio beats Crist in the primary.  

I want the Republicans nominating super right wing idiots and a Hoffman win will bring out the wingnuts to do just that.  Its obvious the establishment has grown a brain.  Castle, Kirk, Crist....all very strong senate candidates...Scozzafava would have won this race hands down if not for Hoffman draining a majority of Republican votes.  Hoffman however, will not beat Owens 1 on 1.  Just like Sali couldn't beat Minnick and Harris couldn't beat Kratovil.  

If the nutjobs are making our job of winning more seats easy, we can focus more on getting better seats.  

A Hoffman win or a hoffman second place does just that.  It gives the wingnuts the cover to say we would have won if not for Dede they'll go all out for the likes of Rubio and every other wingnut Republican out there and the Republican establishment has no choice but to play along or risk losing this section of their base which is clearly able to totally upend their little party.  

The Republicans are relevant because of who they have now, the wingnuts will control that party and make it irrelevant in the future, its only a matter of time, either that or the Republican establishment moves to the middle (thus moving to the left) leaving the irrelvant wingnuts to try and make a third party for themselves.  The sooner that happens, the better.  

Check out http://electioninspection.word... for the latest news, election results, poll analysis, and predictions

[ Parent ]
A Hoffman win makes our job harder, not easier.....
Yes, Hoffman in 2nd helps us.  But Hoffman in 1st kills us.

Some people here forget that Lombardi's football adage applies equally in elections:  winning isn't everything, it's the only thing.

If Hoffman wins, we, not Republicans, have every reason to be scared.

I know the punditry is on board with this notion that Hoffman's strength is lose-lose for Republicans, but they're wrong.  In reality a Hoffman win is a win for Republicans.  They get to crow they won in spite of having their vote split in a district that voted for Obama just a year earlier and now is rejecting him in a blowout.  Hoffman isn't a perfect candidate, but neither has he said or done anything batty--he's a garden variety conservative, so far no bombthrower or delusional nut.  So the House Republican Caucus will accept him with open arms, and DeDe will be quickly forgotten.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
I agree on one and a half points ...
I agree that Hoffman in 2nd place behind Owens is the best possible result, and is what I hope happens.  

I also agree that a Hoffman win hurts the Democrats, but only in the short term.  In the intermediate and long term, I think it still helps the Democrats, albeit in a backhanded way.

From 11/4 until the following Monday, the talking heads will say how it is a setback to Obama and the Democrats.  This is especially true if Corzine loses too. Over time  the talking heads will move on to something else.  

But, if Hoffman wins, the Tea baggers/Club for Growth/Palinistas will make full use of their new found steroid, and will DEMAND greater control of the party.  

Pat Toomey, Marco Rubio and numerous new 'out of the woodwork' candidates will get more wind behind their sails.  The presidential candidates will be expected to make endorsements in FL-Senate and other races where primaries exist (which will grow in number).

The chasm in the GOP will widen not in 2011/2012 but well before the 2010 races.  Democrats will be able to take strategic advantage.  I bet there are quite a few 'sane' Republicans that are praying for a solid Owens win, to prevent this scenario.    

Sometimes it's best to give your opposition 'enough rope' that they hang themselves.            

[ Parent ]
vicupstate, those wingnuts CAN WIN......
You and jsmith and perhaps a few others seem to have this notion that people like Rubio and Toomey can't get elected.

Rubio can.  He can beat Meek.  We need to root for Rubio vs. Crist since Crist WILL beat Meek, and with Rubio we're close to 50-50 odds of winning...but Rubio still would be a very slight favorite over Meek.

And I myself thought not-very-long ago that Toomey can't win.  Hell, Orrin Hatch said on camara that Toomey can't win.  But he's polling competitively now, and it's clear if there's a wind at GOP backs then Toomey CAN win.

Now, I'm on record as believing, and I still believe, that next year ultimately will be a neutral environment.  Some kind of health care reform will have been long since signed into law, people will be calm about it, and the economy will continue inching into positive territory until people feel OK by next summer and fall.

But I could be wrong, and even if I'm not, hard-right wingnuts winning GOP primaries or otherwise working into competitive races as electable 3rd wheels becomes a long-term threat that hurts us BADLY whenever there's finally an election where the GOP DOES have the wind at its backs, and someday in the forseeable future such an election will happen.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
And wingnut performance will make our blue dogs more difficult, n/t

[ Parent ]
Yup, good observation. (nm)
nm

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.
[ Parent ]
I never said Rubio couldn't win or Toomey either...
but the odds for Democrats are better with Rubio than Crist.  Toomey will feel less of a need to hide his true colors, if he thinks he can get away with it. That will leave the center to Sestak. Plus the wingnuts will be pushing him harder in that direction if they win NY-23.  

[ Parent ]
You're overstating Hoffman's impact that way......
Toomey already is the conservative darling in Pennsylvania and isn't going to go "even more right" to appease them...he doesn't have to.  He already primaried Specter and almost won, and primaried him again and literally chased him out of the Republican Party.

And yes, our chances are better in FL-Sen vs. Rubio than Crist, but the NY-23 outcome has nothing to do with that at all.

It's a big mistake to universalize the NY-23 outcome.  Few people outside that district and the tiny world of political junkies care.  Hell, few people IN that district care.  It's not going to have a big impact by itself.

It COULD be a canary in a coal mine...or not.  These wingnut primary challengers all could flame out.  The odds are still heavily stacked against the likes of Rubio and Rand Paul.  But even if it's a canary in the coal mine, that just means it's a signal of something bigger happening but NOT a motivation.

We all should be rooting for Owens to win, period.  And that will help neuter the right.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Toomey doesn't have to act more wingnutty
He's established his credentials, like Susan Hutchinson up in Seattle. He can sound all reasonable, and wink wink to his supporters.

If he and other Rs move right, we're going to have to welcome more "blue dogs" into our party.

I'm for a big tent party,

but some here seem to want to expel - or even vote for Rs over blue dogs - while simultaneously hoping that Rs become even more wingnutty.

[ Parent ]
Nothing in politics happens in a vaccuum
You better believe that there will be a lot more attention paid to this race than the governorships next week.  At least by the people that KNOW what to watch.  VA and NJ have little to portend for next year.  

In the days before the web, you might have been closer to the truth.  If Hoffman wins, The NH, KY, FL, and even CA senate races will be impacted significantly, and those could just be the start.   Rush Limbaugh will be crowing to his multi-million listeners. Glen Beck too. You are crazy not to think that has an impact.    

[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter
Many of those Blue Dogs in the South are going to be washed away in a huge teabagger tide in 2010.
[ Parent ]
I do not agree that Toomey can win
except in a major GOP wave election, and even then it will take a weak Democrat.

He will lose to either Specter or Sestak after a barrage of negative ads against him on his wingnut and inconsistent positions.

Rubio might be able to win.  Meek is an awful candidate.  But I'd give us a 50/50 chance of beating Rubio and compared to a 0% chance to beat Crist.  Guess whom I root for?  RUBIO!

[ Parent ]
I agree that Toomey should not win in '10...
...but we're not talking about any ordinary Democrat here. We're talking about Arlen Specter, who about 30% of the Pennsylvania electorate believe deserves re-election. I think Sestak has the potential to steamroll over Toomey in a general; perhaps as well as Casey did with Santorum. But Specter? Not so much. His dismal numbers among Independents seem unlikely to improve, even against a right-winger like Toomey.
[ Parent ]
Doesn't matter
I don't like Arlen Specter.  Nor do most Dems or independents.  But I'm not going to replace him with piece of shit wingnut Pat Toomey.  Neither is Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania delivered their last verdict regarding wingnuts in 2006 by ejecting Santorum.  They aren't going to elect another one.

[ Parent ]
Remember, Santorum beat Harris Wofford in '94
And I suspect Toomey is following the same script. Wofford was only 68. Spector is approaching 80, and people on both sides already don't like him.

And remember, it took an anti-choice D to beat Santorum, someone who could appeal to the Appalachain areas of central/western PA where wingnuts are strongest.

[ Parent ]
Quite different
1994 was a enormous GOP wave year everywhere, Wofford ran a poor campaign, and PA wasn't as Democratic as it is now, and Santorum won a plurality by 1.5%.  If PA had the same demographics in 1994 that it does today, Wofford would have won narrowly.

And remember, it took an anti-choice D to beat Santorum, someone who could appeal to the Appalachain areas of central/western PA where wingnuts are strongest.

Any decent Democrat would have beaten Santorum by double digits in 2006.  I'd argue that even a third-tier no name Democrat would have beaten Santorum by at least 5.  Santorum was DOA in PA in 2006.    

It didn't take someone who could appeal to central/western PA.  Barack Obama had less than zero appeal in those areas (lost several traditionally Dem counties in the West) and he still won PA by 10%.  Pennsylvania is now just a Democratic state that no longer will elect a wingnut.

If both Dem and the GOP base turns out in equal intensity, Specter would beat Toomey 60-40.  Assuming a 20% drop among Specter voters, it would still be 48-40, or when averaged out, a 55-45 win.

No one likes Specter.  But when the alternative is Toomey, people will vote for him again.  That said, I hope PA Dems choose Joe Sestak, as he would provide better leadership than Sestak.  

[ Parent ]
Spector is also running a poor campaign
2006 was a D wave - in a normal year, I believe only Casey could have beaten Santorum.

I wish you were right about PA, but I still believe that - not only does it include Alabama in the middle (tip to Carville) but also the exurbs around Pittsburgh are wingnut friendly areas, in the same vein (no pun intended) as the rest of Appalachia.

Yes, President Obama won in PA, despite losing western PA. But w/r/t campaigning, Arlen Spector is no Barack Obama.

[ Parent ]
It wasn't just Obama
even before the Dem demographic boom, John Kerry and Al Gore won PA too.  Eastern PA is heavily Democratic, and Western PA is GOP, but not enough to balance.

Specter is a much much better campaigner than Wofford.  Specter is a professional pol, and will rip Toomey apart, Wofford wasn't.

I don't think Rick Santorum could have held his seat in any year after 2002, against any decent Democrat.  

I'll say it right now, Pat Toomey loses by double digits.  He has no chance.  And I think his chances will be further burdened if Doug Hoffman wins in NY-23, because that will force Toomey to paint himself as a wingnut.

So let me say it again GO HOFFMAN!

[ Parent ]
So we disagree
And if Hoffman wins, our Blue Dogs will be a lot more troublesome than they are now...

As you suggested, a wingnut victory in NY-23 may lead to us getting more center-right voters -

the definition of blue dogs in the Democratic Party.

[ Parent ]
They aren't Blue Dogs
look at my response to the other post.  You could call them New Democrats, I guess.

The typical Blue Dog will be wiped out in 2010, due to a teabagger fueled tsunami in the South.

[ Parent ]
A majority of blue dogs are from outside the South
Even if all Southern Blue Dogs lose their seats in 2010 - from http://www.house.gov/melancon/...

I count 29 of 52 members of the blue dog coalition from outside the states of the old confederacy.

[ Parent ]
There are Blue Dogs
and then there are Blue Dogs in name only.  Those who bark but don't bite.

For example, the 7 Blue Dogs from California who represent districts that Obama carried by more than 20%

[ Parent ]
You mean like the California Blue Dogs who limited the stimulus?
That bit hard, IMO. But in several cases, it may have been driven by the nature of their districts.
[ Parent ]
They didn't limit the stimulus
That was done by Snowe, Specter, Collins, Nelson, and Lieberman.

If Pelosi needed the Cali Blue Dogs, she would have gotten them.  But Pelosi can't control any of the Blue Dogs in the South.  

[ Parent ]
The benefit of not having a less-than-fully-progressive Dem in the caucus is far outweighed by the damage that an elected nut can cause.
Seriously.

Also, don't bet on a "teabagger-fueled tsunami in the South", or on much of anything in politics, for that matter.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Powerless loudmouths
like Joe Wilson, Bill Sali and Michele Bachmann do zero damage... except to the GOP.

Cancers like Parker Griffith do enormous damage, and several Democrats in the South will lose next year because they are forced to either defend or distance themselves from Pelosi thanks to his evil comment.

[ Parent ]
I'd never heard of Parker Griffith
before coming here. Sali, Wilson, and Bachmann are (relatively) well known and raise a lot of money / enthusiasm among base R voters.

In any case, Parker Griffith is no Kent Hance.

There's a substantial I bloc of wingnuts who are disillusioned with Rs. I think the polls w/r/t disillusionment with R leaders confirm that.

In any case, of the 3 Rs mentioned, only Wilson represents a southern district.

[ Parent ]
And they're only somewhat powerless because the GOP currently isn't in power
Don't forget that they're still members of the House of Representatives, and that's already quite a bit of stature for them to be playing with.

And you're deluded if you make Griffith such a big deal.  Southern Democratic congresspersons have a much easier way to deal with Griffith's outburst--to not talk about it at all.  Chances are, their constituents don't even care.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Not talking about it
doesn't become an option when the GOP is running ads mentioning his outburst and asking whether so-and-so Congressperson has the guts to join Parker Griffith and "stand up to Pelosi and her left-wing San Francisco values" and promise to not vote for Pelosi for Speaker.
[ Parent ]
Stop saying that like it's definite
I think your THEORY or PREDICTION is very well grounded but politics is the one thing that no scientist can accurately predict, regardless of how much experience they have in the field.
[ Parent ]
Personally I think it will happen
I'm very sure about it, enough that I'd be willing to put up some serious cash that the Dems will lose 10+ seats in the South next year.
[ Parent ]
I would actually compare the teabaggers
to the New Left in the late 1960s and early 1970s that led to the Dems nominating George McGovern in 1972.  The only difference is that the Dems had a strong party that prevented an entire takeover, it is unclear whether the GOP does.
[ Parent ]
NOTHING is going to depress conservative turnout in 2010...
... if Hoffman comes in third, conservatives will say the 'establishment' prevented him from winning.  They will be disappointed, but they will still come out in droves in 2010 because they hate Obama.

However, if moderates see there is no place for them in the GOP, they will vote D or stay home.

If Hoffman wins, Palin's stock goes up, Newt's and the party regulars will go down.  The inmates will be running the asylum.    

[ Parent ]
Short-term, we're fucked any way we go.
We either get a faux Democrat (he's an independent) who's against the public option, who's hypothetical victory would come with the narrative that he could only win with a divided right flank AND by being against "Obama's socialistic healthcare plan."  We end up with another Blue Dog/DLCer, further increasing their influence, one that will vulnerable next year with marginal benefit.  And he'll be more difficult to primary as he'll be shielded because many will say we might lose his seat if we primary him.

Scozzofava runs the risk of being the ostensible moderate, a la McCain or Snowe, and tough to beat for that reason.

Hoffman isn't even a Republican and may or may not have their ballot line next year should he win.  He's also cast himself as a far righty, making it quite difficult for him when he's running for re-election in this blue-purple district.  He will also be running in an election where Schumer will dominate, Cuomo should do well, and next door neighbor Gillibrand will probably overperform.  And his stance on earmarks may end up being a wedge issue for him: please his CfC cronies and piss off the rest of his district or flip-flip and piss off the CfCers

So, to me, the best chance to get something long-term out of this is with Hoffman winning.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
He might be indie, but he's a new-to-politics indie it seems
So he might actually be more amenable to Democratic issue-points now that he's holding our banner, than crazy-mavericky-posing "established" indies like Lieberman.

Not to mention that I never paid attention to FL-08 but suddenly Grayson became front-page politics news.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...

[ Parent ]
Hoffman can win in a three-way
he can't beat anyone one-on-one

Here's how it would go:
Dede beats Owens
Dede beats Hoffman
Owens beats Hoffman

Yet in a three-way, it could end up Hoffman, Owens, Dede.

[ Parent ]
Haha, yeah, voting theory shows just how much of our system is bunk
except that no system is really all that much better.

Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
vicupstate, "credible" polls are unusual for ANY House race......
U.S. House races are notoriously difficult to poll, even in a Presidential election year when the turnout model is the most "guessable" any turnout model ever can be.  A special election like this one is almost impossible to poll.  Voters are very fickle in House races, and polling can be off by a significant margin.

Internal campaign polling is much better because candidates and party committees need it to be as reliable as possible, but they play games with their public releases that makes the officially released stuff dubious.

And even internal campaign polls can be very wrong.  I'll never forget that after the 2006 election Clay Shaw, a longtime incumbent defeated by Ron Klein in FL-13, revealed that his own internal polling showed him up 5 right up to election day.  Shaw was stunned to lose by 4, a 9-point deviation from what should have been first-rate polling.

I asked in another thread on this race about Owens' and his allies' GOTV operation, because ultimately that's what will decide the outcome.  Fortunately Democrats have become very good thanks to Obama last year at identifying and targeting supporters.  But each campaign still has to actually put it into practice in each race.

Ultimately, I think if Owens' GOTV operation is good, then Owens wins no matter what happens with Hoffman and DeDe.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
I'm not prepared to base anything
On polls paid for by benafactors of the leading candidate.
[ Parent ]
Agree with conspiracy. (nm)
nm

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.
[ Parent ]
It is a sad day in Washington
when Newt Gingrich is the standard bearer of Republican moderation.
Will Dede's support from the Independence Party make any difference?
It won't won the race for her, but could it take in some potential Hoffman/ Owens voters (with onebeing affected more than the other)?  I doubt it'll matter but I want to throw it out for discussion.  
And similarly to that, the endorsement of Owens by the Working
Families party. Supposedly they're good at ground game/GOTV.
[ Parent ]
Last I read, not revealed whether the WPF would...
...turn over their voter list and GOTV operation to help Owens.  They can endorse and go to the mat, or they can endorse and do nothing more.  Their endorsement announcement wasn't accompanied by further information on how much work they would put into it.

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.
[ Parent ]
Paterson is out reiterating his support for Owens
How politically ignorant is this man?  I can't wait till Cuomo beats him in a primary and he's out of the picture.  
Why is Paterson
supporting the Democratic candidate of a congressional election in his state politically ignorant?
[ Parent ]
Because it's the same thing as George W. Bush declaring...
his unending support for John McCain.

Your go-to source for great sarcasm
[ Parent ]
Have you missed the dozens of polls on NY-Gov?
I'm guessing of all places in New York, I'm positive upstate isn't a place where he is magically popular.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe be a little more clearer about what you mean
Saying he's politically ignorant for endorsing Democrats in elections in his state doesnt' really explain what you mean.  Paterson isnt politically ignorant as he is trying to get his shit together and his cred up with this endorsement and the big talk he is giving on gay marriage. What would be politically ignorant is Owens touting his endorsement.
[ Parent ]
Al D'Amato likely to endorse Hoffman
someone should ask guiliani and pataki who they back.
box them in now in  case they run

being normal is for the mediocre.
[ Parent ]
I've heard if Rudy endorses, it'll be Scozzafava
Scozzafava endorsed his Presidential bid and even helped to raise $$$ for it. And, Pete Sessions, a Scozzafava-backer, also endorsed his Prez run. Giuliani has zero history with the Conservative Party; he never ran on their line in any of his mayoral bids, and said they'd refuse to endorse him had he ran against Hillary in '00. He has loyalties to Scozzafava and Sessions, and no payback whatsoever to the other side.
[ Parent ]
He said the same thing on NY-1
On NY1 D'Amato said he was leaning towards endorsing Hoffman. That could be a big local NY endorsement for him.

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[ Parent ]
With D'Amato's image upstate, that could compensate
for Patterson talking up Owens...
[ Parent ]
I'm not budging from my prediction
Owens: 45%
Scozzafava: 32%
Hoffman: 23%

Ignoring the fundraising, conservative anger notwithstanding, meltdown aside...Scozzafava is still on the Republican line, and Hoffman is on the Conservative line.  I'll believe a second-place third-party finish here in this purple district when I see it.

Ditto
Though I'd peg Scozzafavva a bit higher (maybe 35-36) and Hoffman a little lower (maybe 20%-cos folks just of that district are just not the type of folks who vote for wankers like him).
[ Parent ]
I agree with you on 4 of your 6 data points......
I'm with you on 45-32-23, with Owens on top.

But Hoffman will beat DeDe.

You just can't ignore the inability of a candidate to get any visibility or do any messaging.  She has no money to buy visibility, and even on the ground she's got only one campaign office district-wide, compared to 5 for Owens and 3 for Hoffman.

As I mentioned commenting in another diary, remember Alan Schlesinger, the Republican nominee in CT-Sen 2006.  He got 10%.  Most Republicans voted strategically for Lieberman.  And Schlesinger not being able to get any visibility to get his message out was fatal.

DeDe is in a similar position now, not quite as bad as  Schlesinger's condition because the NRCC and the RNC are actively helping, but not as far from that as you think.  Add in the fact that more politically engaged voters show up for special elections, with more casual low-information voters sitting it out, and the Republican line on the ballot isn't "all that."

My wife caught me intellectually masturbating looking at dirty polls on Swing State Project.

[ Parent ]
Kinda
But Scozzafava has much more credibility than "Alan Gold" ever had. She represents a big chunk of the district already. There is a personal history there. People are used to voting for her. I will be very surprised if she gets less than 20% though I agree she will likely come in last.
[ Parent ]
I agree with your prediction
I think Scozzafava's ceiling is in the 20s. There is no way he could win it.
[ Parent ]
Some NY-23 Campaign Updates
from the current version of http://www.watertowndailytimes...

First for the Minuteman poll -

The group announced no margin or error for this poll, although I'd guess it'd have to be 6 percent or more. It also provided no online copy of the questions it asked, which, to me, is a red flag.

Second, the CfG ads now ignore Scozzafava

Club for Growth launched a television ad Tuesday in the Watertown, Syracuse and Burlington, Vt. markets on behalf of Doug Hoffman, their endorsed candidate in the 23rd Congressional District race.

Hoffman now also has endorsements from Jim DeMint and Dana Rohrabacher.

Also Gov Patterson apparantly can't tell the difference between troops at Fort Drum and jobs in Plattsburgh.

Several local R's have asked Hoffman to drop out,

This time it's Jefferson County Republican Party Chairman Don Coon and St. Lawrence GOP Chairman Nancy Martin, who both support Republican Dede Scozzafava, asking Doug Hoffman, the Conservative candidate to drop out.

There's a link to the names of 5 R members of the NYS Assembly who also asked Hoffman to drop out.

This is closing in on the definition of a clusterfuck.


Bill Posey is not half-alligator...and is outclassed by Davy Crockett anyway: http://www.washingtonmonthly.c...
[ Parent ]
Yeah seriously
I find it extremely funny that the NY GOP Party chairs up there want Hoffman to drop out...SIX DAYS BEFORE ELECTION DAY!! Yeah he's going to get right on that one after he's been campaigning since God knows when.
[ Parent ]
Quote
"This race is neck and neck between Owens and Hoffman," said DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer.

http://thehill.com/homenews/ca...

Every one of the comments there are from wingnuts. Scary people.

[ Parent ]
Was just reading that
Apparently, the last DCCC anti-DeDe ad was on Oct 20...

Meanwhile, Democratic strategists in Washington are privately beginning to downplay expectations for the race, hinting that they would not be surprised if Hoffman were to win outright, defeating both Scozzafava and attorney Bill Owens (D).

[ Parent ]
I suspect much of that is
Spin management. Expectations game. That being said it would seem, in the absence of reliable polling, that the best evidence suggests a complete tossup between Owens and Hoffman.
[ Parent ]
Tom Davis
Thinks it unlikely Hoffman wins. Deeply concerned about what all this means for the GOP.

http://blogs.abcnews.com/theno...

I love this quote ...
More broadly, Davis said, Republicans need to decide if they're "going to be a national party or you're going to be a private club" -- and need to handle conservative anti-government activists with care.

"Are they a coalition, or are they a club?" he said.

"They've got to keep the energy from the 'tea baggers' and the 'birthers' and these groups that probably couldn't govern a one-car funeral, but they're the energy for the party at this point.
You need those people, and you've got to adopt a couple things and frankly, they're not wrong on every issue. But at the same time you need to appeal to independents and moderates."
[ Parent ]
PPP Polling NY-23 this weekend
NY-23 Roundup | 87 comments

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