What about

the fact that they split up Lawrence between KS-02 and KS-03 in the last map (presumably to get rid of Moore)? Doesn't that divide a community of interest?

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 12:08:42 PM UTC

As a comparison

Here's a Kansas GOP gerrymander that I made:

I split up the two Democratic counties of KS-03 between KS-01 and KS-02 and added rural counties to both KS-03 and KS-02 to compensate. KS-02 went 56-44 McCain (about the same as before), KS-03 went 57-43 McCain (much higher than before), and KS-04 went 58-42 McCain (also about the same or slightly better for the Dems). I didn't compute KS-01 because there are too many counties to add up, but it most likely went 60+% for McCain.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 14:36:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gerrymander-tastic

Johnny, once again, you're an ace redistricter, and this is a totally devious gerrymander....

But putting the urban core of KCK into the otherwise-rural 1st? Not only does that completely violate "communities of interest" standard, but you could even make a VRA argument against it (and you can be sure a former DA like Moore would remind folks). You also redistricted Lynn Jenkins out of the 2nd district  (she lives in Holton in Jackson County, just north of Topeka).

By the way, this is a fun fact: the current House Speaker was the Chair of the state House's redistricting committee the last time around.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 17:50:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now THIS is the "most likely scenario"

There's no way the current KS-03 won't be split up.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 21:47:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You are probably right

But Moore has a very got shot at Mathesoning the Kansas GOP. If that is not a word, it should be. Mathesoning.

But I think they'll try to avoid anything that Nancy Boyda could potentially win.

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by: MattTX2 @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 22:15:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bodya has a good job

Assistant Secretary of Defense? Or is it Deputy Assistant Secretary? Either way, she won't give it up for an iffy race for Congress?

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by: davybaby @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 22:58:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Deputy asst. of defense for manpower & personnel

Is Boyda's new job. And she's already given interviews where she says she prefers policy not politics. But Jenkins already has a credible opponent for 2010--State Sen. Laura Kelly, who spent much of her life working with mentally handicapped children. So I think that should be a big asset in our current Congress.

Seriously though, Boyda aside, Kelly's about as first-tier as Dems could reasonably expect in KS. Military family, second-term State Sen. & minority whip, lots of healthcare and budget expertise, mom of 2. To bolster my "most likely scenario" argument, I'd point out that as a senate insider, she probably wouldn't be running if she thought the 2nd would be radically weakened for Dems and prevent her from winning a second term. Not ironclad proof, to be sure, but a tea leaf nonetheless.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Sat Oct 24, 2009 at 22:50:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's actually a key distinction

Assistant Secretary requires Senate confirmation; Deputy Assistant Secretary doesn't.

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by: davybaby @ Sun Oct 25, 2009 at 19:09:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here are the stats I got...

for your districts using Kansas's statewide precinct file:

District	Obama	McCain	Other	Obama%	McCain%
1	110,472	165,240	4,865	39.37%	58.89%
2	143,155	187,789	6,437	42.43%	55.66%
3	153,297	200,894	5,239	42.65%	55.89%
4	107,841	145,732	4,911	41.72%	56.38%

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by: jeffmd @ Sun Oct 25, 2009 at 22:41:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks

I had done a rough calculation (just adding up the Obama/McCain totals), but obviously was a little off. The districts certainly turned out even.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Sun Oct 25, 2009 at 23:01:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's friggin incredible in terms of being evenly matched

...Although 55-45 McCain districts in Kansas aren't exactly blood-red. A lot of moderates who voted for McCain will vote for local Democrats, especially when the other option is a conservative Republican. The current KS-02 was 55-43 McCain, and it was 59-41 Bush in '04, and a Democrat can obviously win there (Boyda in '06 & Sebelius won it handily, too).

Here's the thing, Johnny: your map, while brilliant conceptually, might function in reality more like a Republican dummymander. It would be tough, but there are quirks in the district designs such that I could see Democrats winning any one of those districts (maybe not the 1st, though it's certainly a lot more possible than it was with the current 1st..and I still maintain the overwhelmingly-rural "Big First" will never include urban KCK). But for the sake of argument, here's how it could happen in the others:

Johnny's New 2nd - Jenkins is a sucky incumbent to start with, and she leaves most of her base behind in this switch. Jenkins basically lives in exurban Topeka (Holton in Jackson County), which would now be in the 1st. Also, the state house & senate districts she represented are also now in the 1st. Every single county she currently represents as a Congresswoman (except Shawnee/Topeka and part of Douglas/Lawrence) has gone elsewhere. This would practically be an open seat. A rural Dem (Salina Mayor Alan Jilka, for example) could blunt the big percentages Jenkins needs to rack up in rural/small-town areas to counteract Dem advantages in Topeka & Lawrence. If Jilka could pull near-Sebelius numbers in just a few of the bigger rural counties (conveniently, Salina's Saline County is the biggest of these), he'd win. After Jenkins goes down, the Republican base of this district would probably keep throwing rural conservatives at Jilka until he became firmly entrenched.

Johnny's New 3rd - This district would have a huge disparity between wealthy, fast-growing, suburban Johnson County (JoCo) which would have about 80%+ of the population, and all the other counties which are comparatively rural and poor. If a JoCo Republican wins the seat the rural areas will be resentful and open to a rural Dem. A rural (read: conservative) Republican could be seen as a hayseed or somesuch by snobby JoCo voters, leading suburban moderates to revolt. Obviously, a rural Dem would not have this problem because all Democrats are perceived as effete, latte-swilling eggheads.  :)  JoCo is also turning blue rapidly, undermining the Republican base. Plus, here's the reason why using presidential numbers is not always a good idea: Sebelius won almost all of the rural counties in this district, with very near (and sometimes above) the 57.9% she took statewide... the only ones she lost (barely) were Coffey & Greenwood, both of which are very sparsely populated.

Johnny's New 4th - Again, the presidential numbers may not show it, but the southeast KS counties that are now attached to Wichita have some  Dem strength: Crawford, especially, usually adds a net 1000-2000 votes for Dems, while Labette & Cherokee lean D (for KS). These are balanced by more conservative Chautauqua, Elk, Montgomery and Butler counties. Meaning urban Sedgewick county is the decider. If Raj Goyle can overperform in the rest of Sedgewick/Wichita even half of what he did in his own state house district, while keeping rural numbers fairly even-ish, he'd win.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Sat Apr 03, 2010 at 22:08:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Splitting Lawrence

They divided Lawrence, yes, but the argument they made was that the two districts they split it into were both part of "communities of interest" with Lawrence/Douglas Co. Suburban Johnson County is sprawling that direction (3rd) and Topeka (2nd) has always had links with it, and the rest of the 2nd included exurban parts of the KC Metro, like Douglas (sorta) is.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 17:56:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The real reason

The real reason, of course, that Republicans did it is that Lawrence is overwhelmingly liberal and splitting it dilutes its strength. In 2000, when they moved more than half of Lawrence into the 2nd district from the 3rd, they were trying to take out Moore, but failed.  

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Sat Apr 03, 2010 at 22:23:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wyandotte County

There is little to no chance for Wyandotte County to stay in the 3rd District.  That is target number one for the Kansas GOP.

If Lynn Jenkins holds onto the 2nd, it will also be preferable to the GOP to keep Riley in that district.  The main argument for having Riley in the 2nd in 2002 was to keep the two forts in the same district.

Sam Brownback won't be picking a fight with legislators, he will be arm in arm with them attempting a Texas styled gerrymander of Kansas districts.  Conservatives already control the House, will there really be enough Mods in the Senate who want to face off against Gov. Brownback in an election year?

You might want to reconsider your analysis and factor in the reality of Kansas politics.

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by: butchcasoddi @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 14:10:42 PM UTC

They aren't that unrealistic

to think that they can get rid of Moore. Kansas simply has to have a Democrat in it, one Democrat. Johnson and Wyandotte are to favorable now to conservative Dems, especially Moore. What are they going to do? Endanger Lynn Jenkins, include Topeka, Lawrence and Kansas City in the same district? Get a grip.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 17:25:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The other reason

Republicans also might think twice about going after Moore: in 2010, he'll be by far the most experienced and powerful member of the delegation. The others will likely be two freshman Republicans and either a freshman Democrat (Laura Kelly) or a second-term Republican (Lynn Jenkins). Moore, on the other hand, will be a six-term member of the majority party and chair of a finance subcommittee. And again, the only way to get rid of him without destroying Jenkins would be a massive gerrymander, a la Johnny Longtorso's above.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Sun Oct 25, 2009 at 18:04:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bob Dole

FWIW, Bob Dole was first elected to Congress in 1960 from the Sixth District of Kansas; KS lost its 6th seat in 1962, and then its 5th in 1992.

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by: davybaby @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 21:51:00 PM UTC