In less than 2 weeks, we will determine the winner of three important elections (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, NY-23). At one time there was some chatter from the right that November 3rd would be a referendum on the Democrats. For argument's sake, I'll agree with the conservatives and then try to analyze the potential results of these three races. First, let's look at the three races:
NJ-Gov If there was ever a "come from ahead" loss staring at a Republican candidate in 2009, Chris Christie is the first man that comes to mind. Christie made the mistake of touting a "reformer" image, but his strategy has backfired. The Corzine campaign has identified flaws in this strategy by refuting it effectively. Christie should have won this race going away, but Christie's ethical issues have been the focal point as opposed to Corzine's tenure as governor. Chris Daggett's popularity is the wild card. At this point I think this race will go to Corzine due to the recent trends in the polls. Daggett is a wild card, but Corzine should prevail by the skin of his teeth.
VA-Gov Creigh Deeds hasn't caught on fire with the Virginia electorate. McDonnell has the momentum, and I don't see how Deeds will pull it off in less than 2 weeks. I hope I'm wrong. It has been noted that Deeds is a fast finisher, so I'm not totally writing this race off yet.
NY-23 Bill Owens might become the first Democrat to represent this district in many years. DeDe Scozzafava is out of money and might actually finish 3rd in this race. Doug Hoffman is the Conservative Party's dog in this race, and he's attacking both candidates from the right. Owens has some momentum, Hoffman has some momentum (if not even more than Owens), and DeDe is floundering. This race leans towards Owens at this time.
If the Democrats win 2 of the 3 races, would it be considered a good night for the Democratic party? If the Republicans only pick 1 of these races, how will they spin the results in their favor?
