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IL-Sen: Tie Between Kirk and Giannoulias

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 19, 2009 at 5:14 PM EDT


Rasmussen Reports (10/14, likely voters, 8/11 in parentheses):

Alexi Giannoulias (D): 41 (38)
Mark Kirk (R): 41 (41)
Other: 4 (4)
Undecided: 13 (17)

Cheryle Jackson (D): 39 (30)
Mark Kirk (R): 43 (47)
Other: 4 (6)
Undecided: 13 (17)

David Hoffman (D): 33 (NA)
Mark Kirk (R): 43 (NA)
Other: 8 (NA)
Undecided: 16 (NA)
(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen's second look at the Illinois Senate race finds a deadlock, with 41 each for Rep. Mark Kirk and state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. That's a slight improvement from August, where Kirk had a 3-point lead against the backdrop of the summer of screamers, but it still presages a hard-fought race. (One indication that Rasmussen may be looking at a rather pessimistic sample here, though: Barack Obama's approval rating is 56-44, barely above his national average, in his home state.)

Kirk fares a little better against the lesser-known Democratic candidates who, absent a Giannoulias flameout, don't seem likely to make it out of the primary: former Chicago Urban League head Cheryle Jackson and former Chicago Inspector General David Hoffman (who is polled for the first time). But Kirk never rises above 43%, suggesting that, alleged moderation notwithstanding, he may have something of a mid-to-upper 40s ceiling in this increasingly Democratic state. Along those lines, Kirk's hope seems to lie with independent voters; right now, he's leading 52-23 among the unaffiliated, and he'll need to nearly run the table with them in order to get over the 50% mark.

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IL-Sen: Tie Between Kirk and Giannoulias | 38 comments
Besides against Jackson...
...I suspect Kirk will probably find himself with a ceiling in the mid-'40s. I really, really don't think Cheryle Jackson would be a strong candidate, and unfortunately, I suspect she can probably win the Primary.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Jackson, like any Democrat, has an ace in the hole
the President of the United States.

Even Jackson would beat Kirk, though it would be closer.

[ Parent ]
Let me add the qualifier
That I support Gianoulias and I think he has big time potential as a pol. Having said that, I'm curious as to why you'd assume that Jackson would be a weak candidate. Because frankly in a machine state like Illinois, Hoffman will have his share of difficulty and I think she'd probably be a stronger candidate than him.
[ Parent ]
The Blago connection's too strong
I don't doubt that she can turn out Cook County, but unless she's more centrist than I've been made to believe, I suspect she'll have problems against a moderate like Kirk in the Chicago suburbs and in St. Clair/Madison counties. I look to the latter especially when trying to predict Illinois races; Moseley-Braun won both counties in '92, and lost them in '98.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
She very publically
Disassociated herself from Blago as well. Here's the biggest problem with the Moseley Braun comparison, the demographics of Illinois have changed enough that if that election were held today Moseley Braun would win.
[ Parent ]
A "moderate" like Kirk
One of the themes of the 2008 presidential election was "McCain used to be a moderate, but he abandoned his independent spirit in order to pander to the fringe elements of the Republican Party." Kirk is already setting himself up to be depicted in the same light.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
Actually Not Too Worrisome
In IL, ties oughtta be given to the Democrat, and this tie exists before any campaign against Kirk really gets underway (whereas Giannoulias has had a whole summer of bad press). And I think the fact that Kirk's numbers are largely unchanged between the different match ups- and that even Cheryle Jackson is only four points behind- rather shows the underlying Democratic strength in this state.
As I wrote in the digest
And Crisitunity aludes to here, compare this with the SIU/Simon Institute poll where Obama is at 64-36 approve amongst registered voters and you see clearly how much Rasmussen favors the GOP. No wonder Kirk and Alexi are tied!  
Well...
I don't disagree that Rasmussen typically has a Republican tilt, but that's registered voters as opposed to the likely voter % delivered in the Ras report. If registered voters were all we looked at heading into elections, we'd think Corzine were set to win by double-digits. Alas, Republicans tend to be more reliable in getting off their asses to vote, and thus, the likely voter model more favors the GOP.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
That was exactly the point
That is how he does it - by massaging likely voter models when there is absolutely no way to verify them by an election in the near future. Time and time again.
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen wasn't too bad in 2008
and from what I recall, their numbers were in the middle of the pack in 2006 too.  But man, have they been at the edge of the outliers this year.  I don't know why.  They must be expecting a massively different voter turnout next year.
[ Parent ]
Did they account much for registration changes?
Seems like they ignored new voters - their models were good for the '06, not for the '08 voter population.
[ Parent ]
Rasmussen was about 3 points off from the result
in their last poll of IL-Pres in 2008. Not bad. But then again there's a difference between predicting the likely voter model three days before the election and a year before.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
[ Parent ]
And that's a major problem with pollsters
Survey USA often pulled the trick of dropping crazy polls months out, and then all of a sudden their last poll matches up perfectly with the average.  Then they get to say they were pretty close to final result, even though most of their early polls were way off the mark.
[ Parent ]
True
McCain +20 in NC comes to mind.

Regardless, to me that just means, don't freak out over polls until election day is around the corner.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/

[ Parent ]
skaje, Survey USA doesn't pull any tricks. What they do is...
...use a likely voter screen for any election that's reasonably close in time, meaning no more than a few months away, and then let the turnout model fall where it may without any weighting for party ID or other demographics.

Rasmussen actually weights for party ID and maybe other factors, as do many pollsters.  And Rasmussen applies a likely voter screen no matter how far away an election is.  Hell, they apply a likely voter screen to Obama's job approval.  And Rasmussen's combination of screen and weighting produces the most Republican and most conservative samples possible.

SUSA, in contrast, can have wildly different likely voter models from one poll to the next in the same race, since they do no weighting at all.  They don't care if their polls' turnout models don't match what's expected...their theory is that predicting the turnout model itself is subjective and biased, and instead they decline to do that and just offer transparency in their results to let observers judge for themselves.

Rasmussen, too, always seems to poll better closer to an election, and I suspect that has something to do with the likely voter screen being more accurate as a gauge of turnout closer to an election than further out.  But even then they've been pulling a lot of dishonest stunts, like their misreporting of their own most recent NJ-Gov poll whose true topline was 38-38-16, but they reallocated soft Daggett voters in a follow-up question and presented that result, 45-41-9 with Christie on top, as the topline!  That's just the latest of many dishonest stunts they've pulled this year.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Ah, that explains things
I've always wondered why it is that Survey USA seemed to vary so widely from poll to poll.  Whereas pollsters like Rasmussen seem to be very consistent, yet often far from the average.
[ Parent ]
2006 Maryland
I've posted this before but still.

Rasmussen
January 13, 2006
Cardin 40%
Steele 45%

Cardin won 54-44 and I expect roughly the same next year in Illinois.

[ Parent ]
IL
This seems like a good comparison and I think it is likely.

29/D/Male/NY-01
[ Parent ]
Maybe...
I'd like to see some non-Rasmussen polling on this race.

The truth is, most pollsters at Steele marked at 45% heading into election night; Cardin was at about 50%, and just so happened to overwhelmingly win over the undecideds. Plus, the wind was blasting at the backs of the Dems in '06; in '10, it very possibly will be favor of the GOP.

Quite frankly, I feel like David Hoffman is the most appealing candidate of the three. It doesn't seem like Alex Giannoulias has fire up much of a base in his time as the overwhelming front-runner of the race, and Cheryle Jackson would perform like Carol Moseley-Braun...in 1998.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Survey USA had Steele/Cardin race tied
like a couple of days before the election
[ Parent ]
Alright, let's waste space and look this over...
The final batch of major polls on the Steele/Cardin race...

SurveyUSA (11/05) - 49D/46R
Mason-Dixon (11/03) - 47D/44R
SurveyUSA (11/02) - 47D/47R
Rasmussen (11/01) - 50D/45R
Zogby (10/30) - 49D/44R
Washington Post (10/26) - 54D/43R

The last poll which had Steele with a lead was a SurveyUSA poll released on September 19th; it had him up by a point. Cardin consistently led him throughout the season, although it was always in the mid-to-high single digits.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Wind likely at GOP backs
But to the tune of ten points in a blue state? Don't see it myself. Anyway, the reason I posted the Maryland poll was to point out how early polling can look very different.
[ Parent ]
Wind NOT likely at GOP backs......
The political environment will be very different, and better for us, next summer and fall than this summer and fall.  The economy will have continued improving, health care long since will have been a done deal, and it will take new problems not yet occurring or very predictable to cause us headaches next November.

Give it a few months and we're going to feel a lot better about the midterms.

I've been on record for months that the midterms will be a status quo election, and nothing is happening to change my mind.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
GOP is running into hurricane wind
The GOP brand is still toxic.  the only think less popular than Democratic politicians are Republican ones, by a WIDE margin.

Kirk just happens to be a decent candidate.

[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure...
That the wind WILL be at the Republicans' backs in IL. It certainly wasn't in 2002 or 2004, bad as that was for the rest of Team Blue. And in '10, we'll have a much better gubenatorial candidate (facing much weaker opposition) at the top of the ballot.

As for Giannoulias, I'm not sure what you mean by "doesn't seem like he has fire up much of a base". IL Dems, with the one exception, don't really do "FIRED UP, READY TO GO!" But so far, Giannoulias is slowly but surely consolidating the state's power brokers. That'll mean a big, effective army come the actualy election. And of course, these things aren't in a vacuum; Kirk will NEED the "FIRED UP!" types, and he's not getting them yet either.

Hoffman seems nice, but I worry he wouldn't get the boots on the ground in Chicago that the others can. And honestly, his former position could quickly turn into an albatross. "Oh, okay, you're the top ethics guy in Chicago. What the fuck have you been doing all these years?"

[ Parent ]
Was Rasmussen not too bad only at the end?
From the little I remember Rasmussen titled Republican up until a week until the election were they then went more even.
It is actually a brilliant strategy; tilt republican until the election so that your polls ratings look like they are in the middle.
[ Parent ]
Awesome...
I'm going to enjoy Illinois becoming the next New Jersey for Republicans.
"Alleged" moderation indeed
I'm sure most voters aren't yet paying attention to, say, Kirk's shenanigans on cap and trade.

21, dude, RI-01 (registered) IL-01 (college)
please help Japan. click "donate funds" in upper right and then "Japan Earthquake and Pacific Tsunami." http://www.redcross.org/
I'd like to see the geographic breakdown
Kirk's way to victory is in peeling off enough Democratic/independent voters from the Chicago suburbs and exurbs.  It looks like, given how he doesn't improve much over lesser-known Democrats, that he is struggling to get those voters to go beyond party allegiances.  I'd also venture that a good chunk of those undecideds are Democratic or leaning Democrat.  Bottom line: Kirk can definitely be competitive in this race, but the further he veers right the more he risks alienating the one group of voters he needs to win statewide.
Exactly
I think Kirk having to run a primary means he loses. And even if that isn't enough, Obama ought to be a big help here.  
[ Parent ]
Illinois
I will keep saying this.This Is Obama's state,and his seat.
No way will the voters there elect a Republican to his seat
to vote against his agenda.Kirk Is going to have to attack
Obama at some point during the 2010 cycle.Kirk voted
against the stimulas,and will likely vote against Health
Care reform.A ad against him by Obama will finish Kirk.

Kirk winning Obama's seat would be like a Democrat being
elected texas Governor back In 2002.Not going to happen.

[ Parent ]
Remember John Tower
elected to LBJ's Senate Seat in '61 after Johnson became VP.

While I think it unlikely that Kirk would win, he is the strongest available R candidate in IL.

[ Parent ]
Texas
That Is true.But JFK only won Texas because LBJ was on the
ticket.Plus Texas today Is soldy Republican.One day texas
may be a swing state again but not untill Obama's time Is
over with.

If Burris was running then yes Kirk could win.And yes If 2010 was like 1994 then Kirk might win however It will not
be.

[ Parent ]
Texas 1961 does not equal Illinois 2009
Texas 1961 is more or less like Ohio 2009.  
[ Parent ]
A better example is 2002 in TX
A strong candidate named Kirk running as the candidate of the minority party in the President's home state.
[ Parent ]
Which is why Kirk pitched a fit
when Andy McKenna threatened a primary.  He knew he would have to stay down the middle to win the general, and knew that a primary challenge (of which Pat Hughes is doing an admirable job) would force him to go right and present himself as an anti-Obama candidate.  While the downstate folks want a fiery anti-Obama crusader, it won't work in the Chicagoland area, where the President is very popular.  However, since the primary is in February, Kirk would have more than enough time to recalibrate and tack center after winning the nomination.  

It's interesting this election will literally be an illustration of the old cliche "will it play in Peoria?"

[ Parent ]
Incidentally, I don't think an R Presidential candidate
has won Peoria since 1988. FWIW. . .
[ Parent ]
IL-Sen: Tie Between Kirk and Giannoulias | 38 comments

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