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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 8:20 PM EDT


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DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 102 comments
The Late Great Warren Zevon

Good song, I just choose it because it was one of his most cynical and actively political songs, at least straight-forward. Pretty interesting guy, was a hard nosed cynic, sarcastic, highly anti-government. Favorite musician ever though, might be another one of his in a few weeks.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Never heard that song before
It sounds suspiciously like David Gilmour is playing guitar in there though.

I've read that Zevon was good friends with Steve Cohen from TN-05. Interesting connection, there.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
Really?
Interesting. A very random connection.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
NY-23
I wasn't feeling Owens at first but I'm getting pretty excited at humiliating the GOP and getting one step closer to a 100% D delegation.
The crazy thing is
if it wasn't for crazy Jack Davis screwing up what should have been an easy pickup of Tom Reynolds' seat, all that would have been left would be good ole Peter King.  And we did come within 6% of getting him too in 2006.

It's amazing work considering that this isn't even a Democratic gerrymander.  The GOP had the governor and state Senate for years.

[ Parent ]
And NY-13
wasn't expected to be a pickup until the news broke of Vito Fossella's drunk driving and love child stories.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Maybe Sen. Kennedy
Would have been worth it after all.
[ Parent ]
Fundraising numbers
I want a chart ASAP!
I was wondering when one would be up to!
I know it takes a tremendous amount of work to put it all together, but any idea when it may be finished?
[ Parent ]
Possibly very soon
James is putting it together tonight. Not to put any undue pressure on him or anything.
[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov needs to be talked about on Maddow, Olbermann, and Schultz
It Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, and Ed Schultz cover this race and go after Chris Christie (and there plenty on him) it will rile up the democratic base in New Jersey. We need to win this race. E-mail Rachel Maddow, Keith Olbermann, and Ed Schultz and ask them to cover this race please.
Given Corzine's background, would that help?
It would be awfully tempting for any of the 3 to make points about the state of the financial system w/Corzine - and how much responsibility he has in that area.

(Corzine used to be CEO of Goldman Sachs - previous CEOs include SecTreases Robert Rubin and Henry Paulson)

[ Parent ]
I'm not saying to talk about Corzine
I think that Maddow, Olbermann, and Schultz should talk about the numerous problems with Chris Christie such as his stance on health care or his scandals. This race has gotten next to no coverage from Maddow.
[ Parent ]
Is that even allowable w/equal time rules?
But IANAL.
[ Parent ]
Equal Time?
I thought that wasn't necessary anymore when Raygun scrapped the Fairness Doctrine 20 some years ago.
[ Parent ]
Correct
Though the fact that publicizing Corzine's business background puts him in a bad light shows his weakness as a candidate.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
There's an obvious reason for that
While all three are progressives, although Olbermann doesn't fit the bill as neatly as the other two, none of them are shills for the Democratic party. All of them have been critical of Dems at one point or another and all have been critical of Obama. I don't watch Schultz in the first place, but if Maddow and/or Olbermann began to critique Christie with there goal being to help Corzine be re-elected I would lose all respect for them and stop watching there show.  
[ Parent ]
I want Bill Clinton and Mario Cuomo
hit NJ for Corzine several times.
[ Parent ]
IA-Gov
Branstad is in and Culver's had a very rough stretch these past few weeks. I certainly hope the R2K poll Kos released today is on the mark, because if Branstad isn't polling above 50 against Culver now, I like Culver's chances of pulling this out.

If I assume R2K is off and the truth is a 10-15 point lead for Branstad today, I still think Branstad will take a hit when the spotlight turns to his very mediocre record as governor. The GOP is over-hyping him.

NJ Gov polls
Does anyone have any of the polling numbers for these two New Jersey Gov Races
1993 James Florio vs Christine Todd Whitman
1977 Brendan Byrne vs Raymond Bateman
I don't have them off hand
but I remember it really looked like Florio was going down big, 5-10 points, and then it turned out he only lost by a point  
[ Parent ]
1977 and 1993
In 1993, incumbent Gov. James Florio was widely viewed as vulnerable due to his wildly unpopular tax hikes. In spite of this, an August 1993 Rutgers poll showed Florio beating the GOP nominee, former Somerset County freeholder Christine Todd Whitman, 49% to 40%. In this case, it was the Republican who came from behind, eking out a 49% to 48% win. The tiny remainder was split among various third-party and independent candidates, none of whom managed to garner more than .4%.

The 1977 race was a classic come-from-behind. The Democratic incumbent, Gov. Brendan Byrne, faced dismal approval ratings: 28% said he was an excellent or good governor, 39% considered him fair, and 29% said he was doing a poor job. Byrne won renomination with only 30% of the vote. An August 1977 Rutgers poll showed the GOP nominee, State Senator Raymond Bateman, beating Byrne 46% to 39%. Byrne ultimately defeated Bateman 56% to 42%.  

[ Parent ]
The R2K polling on IA-SEN
Has really got me thinking this could be a winnable race.

Maybe I am just hopefull, but if the Dems can bring it and pass some good reforms before the 2010 cycle, we could seriously take this seat.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Here is the poll in question
http://www.dailykos.com/storyo...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
only if Grassley continues to stumble
during the next year. I would definitely put this in the "race to watch" category, but I don't think he is vulnerable yet.

That said, there's no way he'll be re-elected with 66-70 percent of the vote, as he has been in the past.  

[ Parent ]
Christie is hitting Daggett in his own TV ads
I think that tells us what we need to know about their internal polls.  
I am getting the impression
that the republican campaign is foundering and Christie needs to beef up.

Where can I find some republican/conservative discussion on the web?

[ Parent ]
Redstate/Freerepublic


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Probably the leading Republican NJ politics blog
is SaveJersey. They adore Christie, view Daggett with contempt, and loathe Corzine. The right-wing counterpart of BlueJersey.
[ Parent ]
2010
I'm not nearly as pessimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2010 as a lot of people are (and basically every pundit.)

I think that in the Senate, we're definitely going to see the loss of a few incumbents for the first time in two cycles but it's not going to be significant. I think Reid is probably a goner because of his extremely low poll numbers against low-tier candidates. He certainly isn't someone with low name-recognition either.

Dodd isn't dead but could very probably lose. I think his poll numbers will pick up after a hopefully successful healthcare bill, and as the economy picks up further and his scandals loom further in the distance. Bennet and Lincoln are sort of toss-ups; I think it's more likely Bennet loses than Lincoln. I really don't think Illinois is seriously in play, and I expect Biden to clean up in Delaware once he declares his candidacy and stars campaigning. I think those losses are basically going to be completely offset by possible victories in New Hampshire, Kentucky, Missouri, and Ohio. There are small possibilities for both sides that I think are going to end up being the Nebraska/Kentucky/Lousiana races of 2010.

The House is a somewhat different story; I think there'll definitely be double-digit losses but probably in the teens. The Democrats have several extremely solid pickup chances that'll salve some of the burn in the South. To me, as a progressive, I don't mind the trade-off of a few Bobby Brights and Gene Taylors (who for what it's worth have more conservative records than quite a few Republicans) for pickups like DE-AL and PA-06, etc. that voted strongly for Obama.

I don't see the Democrats losing either chamber or sustaining significant losses. As for the gubernatorial scene, we'll probably lose states overall but gain in population if only because of California.

CA-44
I really want to see a CA-44 pick up.  Calvert has been in congress for far too long.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I agree about wanting to see the corrupt Ken Calvert (R-44) go down...
But Hedrick is lagging in fundraising thus far, as are many Democrats. We'll see if we can pick up the pace if and when health care reform with a viable public option passes. Without that, we're toast. With that, we may be golden.

I also want to add that I think Reid, Dodd, Bennet, and Lincoln are all in better shape than might appear. Reid is a savvy campaigner, and I wouldn't bet against him.

[ Parent ]
Can you demonstrate this with numbers?
Bobby Brights and Gene Taylors (who for what it's worth have more conservative records than quite a few Republicans)

Because I've read at least one analysis by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com that stated that the most conservative Democrat in the House is significantly more liberal than the most liberal Republican, although that has not always been the case.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Nesselhuf Running For Secretary Of State
"State Sen. Ben Nesselhuf of Vermillion has filed paperwork to seek the Democratic nomination for secretary of state next year.

The office is now held by Republican Chris Nelson, who is prevented by term limits from seeking re-election."

http://www.ksfy.com/news/local...

It would be nice if the Democrats win this.

worked for the guy
seems nice enough, but i doubt he'll win. his district is in one of the most liberal parts of the state, so his races haven't been that hard.  the 08 one seemed tough at first, but wasn't in the end.  the lean of sodak in a republican leaning year will make it very hard to win.  rep herseth sandlin even looks to be in for a tough race.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
Open State Senate Seat in Texas
District 29, El Paso area. Solid Democrat, and a Democrat is vacating. We'll likely see a Democrat from the State House try and move up.

Real implications; The Senator, Eliot Shapleigh will announce within the next 3 weeks if he is seeking statewide office in Texas, I am hearing Lt. Governor tossed around a lot today. IF Ronnie Earle could have been persuaded to pursue AG, and Schieffer were to get Gov and Shapleigh were in as Lt. Gov, we would have a relatively solid ticket. I doubt we'll be that lucky though. Still, the quality of our challengers keeps improving every four years.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26

TX
What is the deal with Earle? Did he decide against going for governor? Or is he still mulling over his options?
[ Parent ]
A bit of both
Has said IF he runs it would be for Governor, and then . . . radio silence.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
tx-gov
Hmmm, I was wondering what was going on with him. If Earle doesn't run, are you expecting the primary to come down to Schieffer versus Gilbert with some Kinky sprinkled in for flavor?
[ Parent ]
IN-Sen
It didn't get much coverage, but this week Dan Dumezich, arguably the GOP's best potential candidate in an already pretty long-shot race, decided not to run against Evan Bayh:

http://www.howeypolitics.com/2...

This leaves the GOP field with three candidates - two unknowns and State Senator Marlin Stutzman, who's only slightly less unknown and comes from a rural county in the northern part of the state. Stutzman has been wandering around Indiana trying to lap up votes at the likes of 9/12 meetings, but generally comes off as pretty hapless. If he and Bayh ever debated, Bayh would crush him. (Do a search for Stutzman on Youtube; he's got "generic losing Republican" written all over him. No charisma, poorly organized, poor fundraiser, and not a very good speaker. I could see people voting for him for school board, but not for US Senate against an entrenched incumbent.)

Bayh also has an absolutely absurd $12.9 million CoH for this cycle, according to OpenSecrets.org, and hired Obama consultant Anita Dunn as his campaign manager way back in December.

Now, behind all the money, incumbency, and daddy's good name Bayh shows signs of being a weak candidate. I'd love to see someone actually poll this race to see how strong he is in spite of the CW that he's basically invincible. A lot of Hoosiers are getting tired of his overinflated ego, lack of accomplishments, and constant futile runs for President, but with that said, Marlin Stutzman is hardly a convincing alternative. It's going to take a seismic shift in political environment to change this race, or a top-shelf GOP candidate that basically doesn't exist. (Except for maybe Mitch Daniels, but he's on the record as not interested in Bayh's seat, and has problems of his own right now thanks to backlash from his administrations efforts to privatize the state welfare system.)

Much as I dislike Bayh, and despite what I may have said before, it'll be difficult for him to lose this one. I wouldn't put it past him to somehow manage a loss anyway in much the same way his protege Bart Peterson managed to lose a sure re-election to Indy Mayor in 2007, but right now the ball is firmly in Bayh's court and it'll be spectacularly difficult for him to lose, even in spite of himself.  

I imagine Bayh's in good shape to net 65%+...
...unless there's some issue factor we're not aware of, like the public option being incredibly unpopular in Indiana (which I don't believe is the case). Stutzman might be the GOP's best hope, if only b/c he can bring out the far-right base. They have no one who can appeal to moderates though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
That's probably a fair assessment
Guys like Stutzman can win the right-wing base and, well, not really anyone else.  
[ Parent ]
I agree
Bayh is a pretty bland incumbent with an equally bland, somewhat erratic Senate record. I've felt that thus far he's just coasted on his residual popularity from being Governor, but that won't last forever.

Despite Bayh's massive warchest he'd probably be vulnerable to the right candidate. It'd definitely be nice to see a poll here.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

[ Parent ]
I would be interested to see
more numbers out of Indiana generally. I think the robopollsters stay away most of the time.
[ Parent ]
"His constant futile runs for President"
...really? I don't think he's ever actually run for President...
[ Parent ]
he did in the 2008 election
for like eight minutes.  he opened an exploratory committee, then dropped out a short time later.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
Eight minutes? Try nearly four years.
He started bloviating about running for President immediately following Bush's re-election in 2004, filed the exploratory committee papers in 2006, and dropped out in late 2007, just before the media really started covering the Endless Primary Cycle. Basically, HRC's presence in the race took all of the oxygen away from his "bland DLC third way corporate sellout" corner of the big tent.

More to the point is his constant angling for VP as a stepping stone to the White House; he's been on Gore's shortlist, Kerry's shortlist, and Obama's shortlist. Also see this article: http://www.observer.com/2008/p... which speculates (credibly) that Bayh is going to get himself onto every VP shortlist to come thanks to his calculated efforts to be the blandest so-called Democrat in Washington.

It also wouldn't surprise me if based on past behavior Bayh tries to run in 2016, especially if HRC doesn't (or as HRC's running mate if the Dems take leave of their senses and nominate her.), but that's still in the future. Regardless, Bayh's the silver-spoon fed son of a US Senator. He thinks he's God's gift to humanity and that he deserves to be at the top. In any case, he's accomplished nothing in 12 years of Senate incumbency except to generally act like the guy who comes to work and spends all day looking at Monster.com instead of actually doing the job he's paid for.  

[ Parent ]
Your chronology is off
Most of what you say is more or less right on target from my viewpoint, but Bayh formed an exploratory committee at the start of December 2006, and dropped out two weeks later. I distinctly remember it because when I heard about it I made a crack about how 'Generic Democrat' had dropped out of the Presidential race.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09
[ Parent ]
::Waits to get told no Presidential talk
by David, James and/or Crisitunity::  (not sure why me always saying that I know it's off-topic makes me think I should still carry on....  sorry)

The Dems damn well better be nominating Hillary if she runs in 2016.  There are certainly plenty of negatives about her but the fact that she can carry states like MO, AR, KY, TN, WV when it comes down to it and could carry OH, FL, and PA easily if the environment isnt horribly against the Democrats should make everyone consider her a top contender.  She cant win IN or NC and maybe not VA but having a Democrat who isnt too horribly conservative and can win the southern states Ive listed should be a giant PLUS PLUS PLUS.

Although, if Hillary were to pick Bayh Id be quite pissed.  What kind of balance that, picking a stale DLC type to go with a non-stale DLC type.  Great way to win MO, not a great way to get out the base, though.

[ Parent ]
Border states
All of those (sans Missouri) have been drifting farther and farther away from us.  You'll see the same thing you saw against Obama in these places.  Hillary will be painted as some radical, socialistic feminist out to castrate the men, force the women to have abortions and become wear pantsuits, and make the kids go to reeducation schools.  The only thing that stopped that was the black guy with a "Muslim" name was scarrier.

Tennessee didn't even go for its native son (and former Senator) in 2000 and only gave said native son and a next door neighbor a plurality vote in the two elections before that.

Other than Missouri (due to its closeness) and Arkansas (due to her name), I doubt Clinton will win any of those states.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Ill be a little clearer with my wording
She has the potential to carry all those states, would she, probably not.  I am probably reaching on TN quite a bit but I remember seeing some decent poll numbers out of Kentucky.
[ Parent ]
That's an awfully strong
Statement to make 7 years out especially when you consider that its 2009, and our 08 nominee was a state senator in 2001.
[ Parent ]
meh, fuck em
I want Hillary!  

I had an EXTREMELY hard time choosing between Obama and Hillary and I only decided like week of.  I really wanted them both to be president and well, they both can, she just has to wait 8 years.  

Simply put, I want her to get to be the first woman president and that means 2016 or bust.  That sounds short-sighted, dont worry it isnt, Im just not going to go into my whole thought process.

And what is really important, the faster we get a woman to be elected president, the faster we get a groundswell of women being inspired to run for office.  The number of little girls who will run because of Hillary will be profound.  And if it isnt 2016 with Hillary, it wont be til like 2024 with Klobuchar, Gillibrand, Madigan, etc.

And the rise from state senator to US President in a 5 year time frame was once in a lifetime.  Hell, if I had the hour or two necessary, Id go through wikipedia and see which president had the fastest rise to the presidency, its probably Obama.

[ Parent ]
I will still opposed her nomination for the same reasons I did in 2008.
Because I don't trust her any further than I can throw her.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I was of the same opinion in '08
Because I don't trust her any further than I can throw her.

However, I can see my opinion of her changing if she continues with the good work that she's done so far as SecState for the next 4 or hopefully 8 years.

[ Parent ]
I actually think her taking the SoS job hurts her ability to do that.
The SoS has far less independence than a Senator.  So, any decision or effort, whether good or bad, could be traced to Obama.  Yeah, she does make her own decisions, but which ones are which?  

If she were still a Senator, she would have a better opportunity to show labor, liberals, gays, anti-war people etc (all of which she or her husband sold out at some point) that she's learned her lesson.

So, in other words: Dean in Sixteen!

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
The SoS job addresses several of her weaknesses
I'm not convinced that Hillary will do a great job for 4/8 years, but I'm impressed so far.

1) It allows her a platform on the world stage
2) It gives her a chance to be an administrator - I'm under the impression that morale is already up at State
3) It gives her a platform to emphasize her positions where she's less polarizing to the nation as a whole
4) It allows her to make a path separate from Bill. Yeah, she was starting to do that as a Senator, but as a directly political position, it's more difficult to believe.
5) By 2016, a good number of voters won't even remember Bill as President.

Yes, she'll be "old" in conventional terms by the time 2016 comes around, but women live longer, and I know of no health problems for her.

ps, as much as I love Howard Dean, I don't see him as any less polarizing than Hillary.

[ Parent ]
Agreed
It does help her resume and give her experience, but like I said, it prevents her from healing the riffs caused by her actions (and her husband's).

As for the Dean comparison with regard to polarization, you're right, but the issue when that sort of polarization comes up is: can our candidate whip up our own side in response?  Yeah, Hillary has segments of the base that love her (including some I really don't get, like working class voters, hello, which president gave us NAFTA?), but she also has a big segment that does not trust her.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Well,
Zachary Taylor was elected president with no prior national political experience, only a military career.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
It depends...
If right from the get-go, Hillary were to run the sort of populist, energetic campaign that materialized only by the TX/OH/RI/VT primaries last time around, she could very well perform as strongly as her husband, carrying states like Arkansas and perhaps even Tennessee and West Virginia. I was amazed during the primaries at how many crazy white trash hillbillies fell head-over-heels for the Hillary campaign, although a lot of that was probably anti-Obama sentiment. I can't imagine she'd lose any Obama-carried states, except maybe Indiana and North Carolina. Virginia doesn't heart the Clintons either. She'd get 55%+ in PA/OH/FL.

On the contrary, if she were to run the sort of mechanical, cold, arrogant campaign that she ran up until March of '08, it would probably be a very partisan game where she shores up the Dem base, but fights like hell to get enough Independents to carry the swing states. She'd likely lose Indiana and North Carolina, and possibly Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado. Arkansas would go her way, but the rest of the south wouldn't follow.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Fastest rise? Not Obama.
A few presidents were elected without any political experience whatsoever. The important thing to note, of course, is that they were military heroes: Zachary Taylor, Ulysses S. Grant, Dwight Eisenhower. Chester Arthur's rise was probably more abrupt than Obama's even: He was a lawyer from New York whose only political office previous to being elected Vice President was Collector of the Port of New York, a federally appointed position that traditionally went to a political appointee under the patronage/spoils system. The Republican political machine in New York got Arthur on the ticket with Garfield in 1880, and then lo and behold, in 1881 President Garfield is assassinated by Charles Guiteau.  
[ Parent ]
ha, thanks for finding my, uh-duh moment!
There are two groups of people who become president, politicians and military generals/heroes.

Although in the modern era, I have a big feeling we will never see a military general ever become president.  I feel that is more due to the nature of war today as opposed to back to then.

[ Parent ]
I also disagree
I don't think Hillary would be a strong nominee in 2016.
First of all, she'll be approaching age 70 by then, and that's pretty old to be running for President. Reagan and McCain both ran at a similar age, but they were the exceptions, not the rule.
Secondly, she is a much more polarizing figure than President Obama. Yes, she came pretty close to winning the Democratic primary. But in the general election, I'm not convinced that she can win swing states. A lot of parts of this country don't like the Clintons, and a whole lot of people aren't comfortable with returning them to the White House. Remember all the worries about giving Bill Clinton an office in the White House again that surfaced last year? And even without Bill, I think most people in this country have at least some negative opinions of Hillary due to her unconventional path to the Senate (First Lady), her general lack of trustworthiness, her voluminous baggage (want to see a general election campaign about Whitewater and Monica Lewinsky again? I didn't think so), and her feminism and liberalism.
And unlike President Obama, she is not an especially charismatic public speaker. Sure, she's all right, but all right doesn't win votes the same way true charisma does.
In any case, it's way too early to be talking about this. I'll just finish up by saying I doubt she runs at all.
[ Parent ]
I think the polling was pretty conclusive
that she could win the presidency.  In fact, I was quite surprised she was polling so well.  I figured most people would call her a bitch and say they're voting for anyone else.

I agree with your last point, highly unlikely she runs again.  But if I were in her position, I dont know how I wouldnt run.  You dont come that close, as the first woman to be a serious candidate, and not try again.

[ Parent ]
No question in my mind
that Hillary would be a strong candidate in 2016.  
[ Parent ]
The big year in Indiana will be 2012
There will be an open Governor's office, an open seat if Lugar doesn't run for re-election, and a (much more favorably Republican) redistricted Congressional map, leading to several potentially competitive match-ups.  And, of course, our attempts to hold Indiana for Obama.
[ Parent ]
Philadelphia Inquirer endorses Gov. Corzine
In its endorsement, the Inquirer basically hints that it would have endorsed Christie if he wasn't so non-specific with his vague promises to cut taxes and spending, while "dodging fundamental policy questions."

The Inquirer also praised Daggett's property tax plan, describing it as vastly superior to the homestead rebate gimmick that both of his opponents would continue. In spite of this, the Inquirer decided that Daggett's platform was too sketchy to get their endorsement. So instead they went ahead and endorsed Corzine, a major proponent of the rebate gimmick they'd just criticized.

They then proceeded to criticize Corzine's governorship:

On finances, the governor took a principled stand for funding pension obligations, only to have to retreat from it amid the downturn. He budgeted cautiously, but then made exceptions under political and economic pressure. He put forward but abandoned a controversial proposal to retire state debt. He won important concessions from state-employee unions, but often seemed too cozy with labor.

They also decried his failure to achieve real property tax relief and his coziness with the political machines that still dominate New Jersey politics. In spite of this, they somehow come to the conclusion that these "imperfect victories are nevertheless remarkable." In my opinion, this is preposterous logic in a hamhanded endorsement.  

Here's a link
to the Inquirer's endorsement of Gov. Corzine that I described above.

http://www.philly.com/philly/b...

Interesting...
...I've been thinking Daggett had the potential to sweep the major newspaper endorsements (it's hard to see how politically-savvy editorial panels would cling to non-starters like Corzine or Christie), and that such would keep him relevent.

A newspaper endorsement of Corzine won't move Daggett/Christie supporters over in his direction, because the necessary goal isn't to reach out to Independents and Republicans, but rather GOTV with the Dem base. As it stands, I feel like Corzine's getting around 45%, and the other two around 55%. It's just a question of whether Christie can keep Daggett from getting enough votes to keep Christie from pulling it off. I suspect Daggett getting any higher than about 13% means Christie loses.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
An endorsement's an endorsement
It's pretty much a forgone conclusion that Corzine will also get the Times's endorsement. And endorsement ads on TV and direct mail matter.  
[ Parent ]
As if on cue:
[ Parent ]
SarahPac
Anyone know how much Sarah Palin has raised for her PAC so far?  

17, Gay Male, Democrat, NJ-8  
Ron Paul is coming to Des Moines
on November 14 to raise money for gay marriage foe Kent Sorenson, who is running against Staci Appel in Iowa Senate district 37. It will be a banner race, because Appel's husband is one of the seven Iowa Supreme Court justices.

I wonder what a so-called libertarian like Ron Paul has against gay marriage.

It's funny how much mileage
a right wing Republican can get out of pretending to be a Libertarian. Clever shtick.  
[ Parent ]
I think many ron supports don't care.
Anyone who can google knows that Ron Paul's a social Conservative. The only differences was that he put social issues on the back burner.
Frankly though I don't think his supports care, and that most of them are social conservatives. Simply because Libertarians like Conservatives and Republicans have one main goal;
to keep oligarchy power, and wealth structure intact. Libertarians just have a different strategy to do this.
[ Parent ]
Not the college supporters of Paul
My alma mater (holy shit, first time I've ever said/typed that), while pretty conservative, has what is known as the top Justice and Peace programs in the country so we have a large contingency of anarchists and extremely liberal people who attend. I just wanted to slap all those anarchists, many of whom I call friends, in the face as they just LOOOOOOVED Paul because of his anti-government approach, thinking his anti-government stances equated to wanting government to disappear so we can all live in hippy communes of self-sufficiency.  Totally ignored the fact that his politics would result in complete corporate control and totally ignored his social policy stances.

[ Parent ]
FL-Sen: Corrine Brown won't challenge Meek
I really dislike her
I cant help but feel like her whole, dont discount me!, was only because she didnt want her black-self to be discluded when another black candidate was running, who has equal stature as a Congresscritter.  It was like, oh us blacks can run for Senate in FL, well Ill be damned if a black person with less seniority than me in the House runs and I dont!

Her exploring the race was one giant ego stroke and was her trying to pull rank as the senior black Congresscritter from FL.

[ Parent ]
Washington Post endorses Deeds
http://deedsforvirginia.com/pa...

Not entirely surprising, but I was fairly blown away by how full-throated it was.

Combined with Obama's last minute campaign swing, this has me feeling a little more bullish than I was even 24 hours ago.

Male, 23, DC-At Large

won't make a difference
Deeds ran a bad campaign and will now lose. Corzine on the other hand knows how to recover.
This is what I'm expecting election night to look like right now.

Virginia
54% McDonnell
46% Deeds

New Jersey
43% Corzine
41% Christie
15% Daggett
1%  Other

[ Parent ]
For now, I think...
McDonnell - 53%
Deeds - 47%

Corzine - 44%
Christie - 42%
Daggett - 14%

Owens - 39%
Scozzafava - 38%
Hoffman - 23%

Garamendi - 58%
Harmer - 42%

Bloomberg - 54%
Thompson - 46%

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
OK, these seem like plausible guesses..
But let's try being a bit more hopeful or perhaps just foolhardy.

Have you noticed that Deeds has been rising in the polls in October, just ever so slightly? Perhaps this is meaningless noise, but perhaps something is brewing. According to Pollster.com,, the margin has dwindled from an 11 point advantage for McDonnell (SUSA 10/2-4) to 9 points (WaPo 10/4-7), to 8 points (Mason-Dixon 10/6-8), to 7 points (Ras 10/12). Now we've got a full-throated WaPo endorsement and Obama on his way. If the Democratic base gets energized, this could be a closer race than anyone has been predicting.

Here's the fantasy: Democrats sweep the field in NJ, VA, and the two Congressional races. Can you imagine how down in the dumps Republicans would then feel?  

[ Parent ]
I agree.
I mean, to some extent.  If it's a seven point race now, and Deeds gets the WaPo endorsement and a big rally with Obama, that makes more than a 1 point impact.
[ Parent ]
Lets make sure
to include to the gay marriage ballot question in ME.  Why bitch slap Republicans when we can bitch slap conservatives?
[ Parent ]
Absolutely!

[ Parent ]
Looks like Corzine
has been bringing in some congressman from California to stump for him.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/j...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/j...

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

Honda's my Congressman (when I'm home from college)
He's not the most well known guy but he's pretty important.  He's head if the Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus (hence why he's often used to rally Asian American voters) and a vice chair of the DNC.  He's also been a good Congressman.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
NYSun: Bloomberg Nervous About a Thompson Upset?
NJ newspaper endorsements...
Corzine gets The New York Times.

Christie gets The Courier News (4th largest paper in NJ) and The Home News Tribune (6th largest).

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Christie is also being endorsed by
The Courier-Post, based in Camden and circulating over much of South Jersey. And it's pretty much a given that he'll be endorsed by the Asbury Park Press, the most conservative paper in the state.
[ Parent ]
NM-2
Harry Teague in my view has had an outstanding voting record and Steve Pearce was one of the biggest goons in Congress.  I hope some more financial resources get into this one.  I know Teague can self-finance, but folks should go to bat for him if they can to defeat Pearce.

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2

Ga-Gov
I am only interested in the Georgia Governor's race is due the fact that this has got to be the dumbest thing I have ever seen.

Who in their right god damn mind thought this was a good idea?!  Its corny, and pathetic.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

That is perhaps the worst ad in the history of politics.
I obviously can't say for sure, but it has to be up there.

From the random fighting between the two creatures to the random placement of Ronald Reagan, that is a disgrace.

Anyone who refers to himself as "The Ox" has big, big, problems...

[ Parent ]
LMAO.
Is that really from the Oxendine campaign?  It looks like an ad done for a campaigns class in college.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I also love the claim about Oxendine standing up for consumers/taxpayers, considering he took illegal contributions from big insurance.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
The Ox?
If that is meant as a way to advertise the Ox's campaign, he may want to use names.

Not sure how this compares to Big John, though.

[ Parent ]
Wow.
That's really a tough call. I think I'd give "The Ox" the edge on all-around crappiness "Big John" the edge for sheer ridiculousness.
[ Parent ]
Between that and Karen Handjob's "Stronger than an Ox"
GA Republican's have created the cheesiest most self aggrandizing ads I have ever seen. Warning extreme doucheness follows: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU7RleXSdpw
[ Parent ]
Interested in first polls for VT-Gov, RI-Gov and AK-Gov

Im very interested in know the first polls for VT-Gov, RI-Gov and AK-Gov races. They are races so unpredictables without a first serious poll.

Of course, NJ-Gov and VA-Gov are very interesting in this moment.

my gut for vt-gov
 and fundraising numbers say markowitz far ahead in the primary and slightly in the GE

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
VA-Gov: The Daily Press Endorses McDonnell
http://www.dailypress.com/news...

They endorsed Tim Kaine in '05.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

The Daily Press has gone off to the right since then
They endorsed McCain in 2008 after endorsing Kerry in 2004.
[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 102 comments

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