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NY-23: Scozzafava running out of money

by: conspiracy

Wed Oct 14, 2009 at 8:44 AM EDT


"Dede Scozzafava, the GOP nominee in a key upcoming House special election, is running dangerously low on campaign cash, according to several GOP sources familiar with her spending and fundraising."

Interestingly the article goes on to say that the RNC has sent only two staffers and hasn't contributed a cent to the race. Owens is outspending her 12-1. Even Hoffman has spent more. The NRCC is trying to make up the difference but even they have been overtaken by the DCCC.

"Despite a recent poll showing the GOP nominee with a 7-point lead over Owens, the spending disparity has many Republicans downbeat about her prospects."

I have to say I'm surprised at this. You would think the RNC would be flooding cash into the district to try and get a clean sweep of all the big races on November 3. Politico suggests they are concentrating on the gubernatorial races but that seems dubious at best. Maybe they just don't want her to win. I know I don't.

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

UPDATE

The Rothenberg Political Report moves the race from Pure Toss-Up to Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic.

http://rothenbergpoliticalrepo...
conspiracy :: NY-23: Scozzafava running out of money
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NY-23: Scozzafava running out of money | 66 comments
The stars are aligning again.
A fringe "conservative alternative", everyone is bashing the Republican, the Republican is having money problems.. I had seen a comment or two refering to her financial troubles, but I had no idea it was this bad!  The most damning thing is that she's had to pull advertising from parts of the district!  Those that don't know her are going to hate her, setting us in a very good position to win these areas.  This was great news to wake up to.  
This is just golden, Obama is a genius......
Everyone saw, whether true or not, a devious, hands-rubbing-together motive in picking McHugh for Army Secretary, and sure enough it looks like the plan is going to work.

I'm starting to feel a lot better about November 3rd in spite of Team Red winning in my now-home of Virginia.  If we can pull out NJ-Gov as looks increasingly likely, and take a GOP-held seat in NY-23, then that will stop the punditry cold from declaring a Republican wave forthcoming next year.  I'll still be depressed if we lose more than a seat or so in the Virginia House or if my Democratic Delegate in HD-34, Margi Vanderhye, doesn't hang on.  But as long as the Virginia House races end up a draw or extremely close to it, I'll take that and a couple out-of-state victories and be satisfied.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

He has had his fair share of doozies
But generally much better than the senate appointments by certain governors.
[ Parent ]
my guess is that the RNC just doesn't want her to win
i'm not that excited about owens, but i'm definitely enjoying seeing the Republicans shoot themselves in the foot.  anyone know when the next poll of this race will be?
Taegan sometimes gets a heads-up

[ Parent ]
Siena
Will have one tomorrow.
[ Parent ]
The RNC?
Do they mean the NRCC?  I don't think the RNC/DNC get too involved in federal races like this.
zac, the RNC DOES normally get involved in a race like this......
The RNC can and does spend money on federal races.

In a normal midterm cycle they spend on Senate races but not House races.  And maybe some help to Governor's races, too, but more often they stick to the Senate races.

In a Presidential year they spend almost exclusively to help the Presidential nominee, but maybe throw some help to a Senate race here or there.

And in an odd year like this, they spend on the Governor's races and the special elections that come up.  The RNC did, in fact, spend a boatload on the NY-20 special that we celebrated with Scott Murphy's victory.  It was a huge embarrassment for Steele.  And I'm guessing that's the real reason he won't invest now:  he smells defeat and has for awhile.

That's what surprises me about the comments on the RNC not helping here, that no one points out that maybe, just maybe, Steele recognizes DeDe is a lost cause.  The NRCC ads against Owens have been terrible and stupid, no one has really landed an effective punch on him.  And DeDe having no money means she's got no effective pushback on the attacks from right and left.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Good info. Thanks. eom

[ Parent ]
No, they mean the RNC
Scozzafava supporters blame her cash crunch on the Washington Republican establishment, which they contend has not embraced her campaign enthusiastically. They specifically point to Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, whose committee has been virtually absent from the race and hasn't yet donated any money>, with just weeks to go before the Nov. 3 special election.

"Chairman Steele hasn't put up a cent, not even the obligatory $5,000," said a New York-based GOP operative. "There's been no support from the RNC. Democrats are going all out for this race. Everyone's in the same direction."


[ Parent ]
Anyone seen what the DNC is doing for Owens? eom

[ Parent ]
Well, President Obama is raising money
http://www.watertowndailytimes...

The New York Daily News has revealed the DNC fundraiser will be held at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Columbus Circle. Mr. Owens' fundraiser will be held at the same venue as the DNC event and will cost $4,800 per person to attend.

About 50 people are expected at that rate - that's 250k.

That may seem like chump change, but I suspect that the most expensive media market in the district is Plattsburgh (some Burlington VT TV stations).  

[ Parent ]
Partial correction - Syracuse media market too
Apparently, per the linked Politico article, part of NY-23 is also in the Syracuse media market. From that article:

Scozzafava appears to have spent only $26,000 so far on television advertising, and she pulled down her television buy last week in the vote-rich Syracuse media market, where she's hardly known. She's currently up with only a small $7,965 television buy in her home base of Watertown.

By contrast, Owens has spent $303,000 on television ads, and Hoffman has spent $124,000 on TV advertising alone, according to the media buy database.


[ Parent ]
VA
I worry more about the fact that we are getting killed in the other State wide races than Governor.  It seems we are going to handily lose all the others too, and that leaves us with no real bench state wide, which is a big worry in state that was trending towards us big time.

29/D/Male/NY-01
Tim Kaine...
... could take another shot at the job in four years.  The real problem is that McDonnell could have the stature to take on Webb.
[ Parent ]
Not in 2012
Some talk Webb might not even run himself then.
[ Parent ]
2 years into his term?
unlikely.  it'd be too palinesque to quit halfway through his only term.  tom davis is a more likely opponent, or a george allen redux.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I would bet on
Cuccinelli to run against Webb in 2012. Bolling will be the heir apparent to the governor's mansion, and I can't imagine Cuccinelli wanting to wait eight whole years for a shot at higher office.
[ Parent ]
Eh, there will be a bunch of Democratic
state Senators ready to try next time.  And look at the ragtag Democratic primary field for Governor this year.  I don't think we lost many good prospects, if any, there.  For the downticket races...the polling is so uniform with the Governor race that people are likely not bothering with the candidates and voting one party or the other down the ballot.  I think other than Deeds, all those candidates can run again in four years without much harm done.

I think Virginia Republicans are not going to long enjoy the relatively easy win, though.  This looks to me like one of those backlash-y elections states do when they're tipping Blue: they destroy the Timidocrats and conservaDems they kept in office to moderate the basic hardline Republican governing style.  They give the hardline R's all the benefit of the doubt and one last shot at everything the want to do (usually destructive).  Tempered by a Democratic minority that can and will block the stuff that does really permanent damage.

This starts a burnout dynamic- I think McDonnell starts with a wave of popularity and Republican triumphalism.  And he does a few things that needed doing.  But then come overreaches and errors, and partisan hackery, and it all starts to grate, wear, crumble.  And it slowly burns out the support and passive toleration, the ambivalence; the fueling resentments vent out and get exhausted.

[ Parent ]
Baystater, a lot depends on the unpredictable Virginia House races......
As Virginia Democrats right now we are crossing our fingers for a wash in the Virginia House.  It could happen, since McDonnell will perform worse in NoVA than statewide, and a majority of the truly competitive races, with pick-up opportunities for either side, are in NoVA.  And a few Hampton Road races, too, are among the most competitive.  McDonnell might match or exceed his statewide percentage margin there, since he has "adult roots" there (as opposed to his childhood Fairfax County roots which he also touts but are too distant to matter to NoVA voters--especially since MANY of us are OUT-OF-STATE transplants ourselves!).

The bottom line is if we can hold our own in the Delegate races and force a wash, then GOP momentum will be blunted.  And we already control the state Senate, with no seats up again until AFTER redistricting with the exception of Cuccinelli's highly-competitive seat up in a special election if he wins the A.G. race next month.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Owens is outspending her 12-to-1?
Seriously...TWELVE to ONE?!

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Perhaps "only" on paid media
At least those are the numbers from the Politico article cited in the diary.
[ Parent ]
On advertising, yes. 26K to 303K.

[ Parent ]
She has no TV presence
Watching Plattsburgh TV, Scozzafava is virtually invisible. Owens has a fair number of ads up on air, the Club for Republican Purity (aka Club for Growth) has their ads up on behalf of Hoffman, but I've only seen one pro-Scozzafava ad, and only seen that one time. Owens also seems to be doing better in terms of getting local news coverage than the other two.

Driving through Clinton County, I saw a couple of pro-Scozzafava signs, but Owens had her out-signed there significantly (of course he is from Plattsburgh, so this is his home turf).

Maybe things are different in the western parts of the district, but if it isn't, she is in trouble. There is no way a candidate like Scozzafava can compete in a special election if she can't get her name out across the district.

Owens is proving to be a better candidate than I thought he would be. Hoffman is gaining a lot of traction, he'll easily break 20%, probably closer to 30%. I'm feeling much better about a Democratic victory here (and, unlike Kos, that's what I'm hoping for).  

You don't have to take Kos's pronouncements
at face value.  What I've been told is that it gave Hoffman supporters a pile of ammunition and talking points to attack her on.  All the Republican donors have, I would guess, been told to hold off until the last week or two and to drop their money on Hoffman then.

Democrats apparently gave Kos's provocation their ten minutes of annoyance, then looked at the district (about 47% serious D performance, something like that), then Scozzafava's pledge to be a GOP party line vote.  And everyone went over to Owens when he opened his mouth and went a bit further left than before.

[ Parent ]
Wow
Turning out to not be such a bad November after all.  I still can't believe Corzine is going to win.  Holy crap were those poll numbers ridiculously bad over the summer.
Also
The guys at redstate claim to have seen a private GOP poll that shows Owens ahead by double digits.  I won't link, but it's under their "Dede Scozzafava is toast" frontpage story.
American Spectator seems to confirm.
I too will not link.

According to Republican National Committee sources, a poll on the 23rd District race paid for by the NRCC and due to be released on Monday has been withheld due to a poor showing by the Republican candidate. An NRCC denied that the poll was being held back, but was being reviewed for "margin of error issues."  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
No wonder
Steele is staying out.
[ Parent ]
Hilarious
They are celebrating! Good for Dems all around.
[ Parent ]
When I googled
Scozzafava, your diary came up as like the third entry under "news results."  That's pretty badass.  Congratulations, conspiracy, you are a journalist.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
I have been called worse!
:)
[ Parent ]
I think Scozzafava's election
would be the worst outcome for progressives for this seat.

I continue to believe that the best outcome would be a Hoffman victory, followed by an Owens win.

Are you saying a
Hoffman victory would be best because he would be vulnerable in 2010 to a different Dem?  Boy are we a self-hating party.  Wouldn't it be better for Owens to win and a different Dem to primary him at some point if he's not a good Democrat?  Yeesh!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
I think
It's a little more complicated than that.  Though I don't necessarily agree with JSmith on this, if Hoffman did win, it might put the GOP in such a position that they would never ever again nominate a moderate even in a moderate district, thereby ceding all sorts of seats to us.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
I would think an Owens win would have the same effect.
Whether you're losing disenfranchised conservatives to a third party or to a lack of enthusiasm, they still lose them.  
[ Parent ]
Amen.
In fact, they'd be much more motivated to stop nominating moderates by a Dem win than by a Conservative win.  The Conservative will caucus with them and vote with them at least 95% of the time.  Most Republicans would rather that than have Scozzafava vote with them 75% of the time.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
But a Hoffman win
Doesn't equal a Hoffman hold.  He'd get chewed up next election cycle...and by a Dem probably more liberal than Owens.  That's when the grumbling starts over at RedState...not after an Owens victory.  And I don't think the purist base will be nearly as happy with DeDe as you suggest.  Nonetheless, I am rooting for Owens in the end, and was merely trying to suggest what JSmith might have been thinking.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01
[ Parent ]
Nah
Why wait for them to think they severely fucked up in 2010 and they try to correct in 2012 when we can make them think they did so in 2009 and they can put all their resources into even bigger fuck-ups for 2010?

It'd serve us much better to have them squawking about not being conservative enough in 2009 and have that build up to the 2010 elections than have it happen in 2010 through 2012.  Their anger and energy is best contained into a single year of action rather than spanding two years of action, where it will fizzle out.  It'll be much more fervent come primary season in 2010.

However, candidate recruitment has for the most part already occurred so they could have a major effect for 2012 for recruiting purposes and encouraging hardcore conservatives to run.  But I dont think they'd be that much more successful in candidate recruitment for the 2012 cycle than with 2010 as this is the cycle most Republicans view as being their time to get seats so the Redstate folk have plenty of targets as is.

Owens winning and having those people freak that they shouldve picked the conservative candidate from the get-go is much more beneficial to their party being torn in two even more so.

[ Parent ]
You NEVER play that math....
D'Amato won in such a scenario taking out a liberal Republican incumbent.  He won re-election.  Twice.

NY-13, Democrat. Blog @ http://infinitefunction.wordpr...
[ Parent ]
Good God, any Democrat who isn't rooting for Owens here is...
...a dingbat.  I'm sorry but that's just true.

It's amazing the ridiculous contortions some people go through to justify wanting a win by DeDe or now even Hoffman.

A Congressman Owens is going to vote more liberally and otherwise be more responsive to us than a Congresswoman Scozzafava, and Hoffman is the bad guy in the race.

Why is that so hard to understand?

And I haven't even mentioned the important narrative an Owens win gives us going into 2010, that any talk of Democrats being in trouble is overblown.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
The pro-Hoffman sentiment
involves much more political strategy and calculations down the road and is long-term thinking.  I wouldnt call them dingbats, Id say more so that long-term thinking in politics is a fools game as nothing in politics should really be looked at in a long-term sense save for targeting a state and doing party building within it and changing the electorate.

As for those supporting Owens over Scozzafava, the fact that Scozzafava is labeled the liberal and Owens the conservative says it all.  There is the argument that Scozzafava wont vote as liberally as she'll want to and that's valid but is uncertain.  Also, arguing that she's a liberal is equally as short sighted as we dont know how she'll vote in Congress.  You may call them dingbats but I call them liberals while Id call you a Democrat.

[ Parent ]
If Hoffman won, Teabaggers would get more traction
While I'm all for painting Rs as the reactionaries that they are, giving Teabaggers a morale boost would validate their political tactics.

I don't want to see Teabaggers winning elections - especially outside the South.

If they do, their populism may end up hurting our candidates more than one might think.

[ Parent ]
Teabaggers already have traction...
The Republican party itself is already bat shit crazy; the bat shit crazies of the bat shit crazy of the GOP have a lot of traction.
They already succeeded in getting Spector(sp?) to switch parties; they talking about removing Snowes(sp) charimenships, they given Charlie Christ a middle finger. Not to mention half of the GOP thinks Hawaii isn't a state; thinks Limbaugh is a genius, and Steele is a one way ticket to political prosperity.
If teabaggers and right-wing lunatics get anymore traction they'll have a train route to the moon.
[ Parent ]
Specter, Snowe, Crist
Because you weren't sure.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
No liberal wants Hoffman to win, period......
If you're a liberal, you don't want Hoffman.  It's actually foolish to want DeDe over Owens, too, but a self-described liberal who wants Hoffman to win this special is a dingbat, not a liberal.

And it's not "uncertain" DeDe would vote more conservatively than she might personally prefer.  That she faces such a strong challenge on her right in the special will be enough to "scare her straight" from the conservatives' perspective, since the Conservative Party right up front is an established force in New York State and DeDe would have contended with near-disaster once already.

Most importantly, DeDe is not "the liberal" and Owens is not "the conservative."  Gay marriage is the only issue where it's established DeDe is on Owens' left.  Beyond that, it's unclear where they stand ideologically compared to each other.  But that Owens chose to run for Congress as a Democrat and was the unanimous choice of the local party poobahs and secured a key union endorsement all point to his being on DeDe's left.  DeDe has nothing but gay marriage to contradict that.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I don't need you questioning my liberal credentials
like Joe McCarthy questioned decent Americans' patriotism.

I am a liberal, and I'm rooting for Hoffman.  I believe that his victory might convince teabaggers and other wingnuts that they can run third party candidacies and win, which would harm the GOP much more than a loss here would.  It might even convince Sarah Palin to consider a third party run in 2012 if she doesn't get the GOP nomination.  And having independent right-wing candidates around the nation would give us more good Democrats that would allow us to tell the filthy rural Southern Blue Dogs to take a hike.

The GOP would have to choose between nominating unelectable (outside the rural South) teabaggers or having them run as independents.

[ Parent ]
While I understand your logic,
I think it is unlikely a Hoffman win will cause a massive increase in third party wingnuts running for Congress. I think the best case scenario is that Hoffman does well enough to look like he might have cost the Republicans the election. It would convince Republicans that they need to nominate conservative candidates to win (we all know how well that will work)and keep them demoralized over another loss. If Hoffman wins it might energize the right wing base, so him winning is the last thing I want to see.
[ Parent ]
JSmith, that's a silly argument because...
...if Hoffman actually wins, then in fact he is electable, and in fact wingnuts like him are electable and can and will win in swing districts everywhere.

The wingnuts wouldn't be foolish to think they can win.  People like you would be foolish not to recognize a Hoffman win as proof they can.

NY-23 is a 52% Obama district, he won here, and McHugh was a "moderate" GOPer who was soft enough a partisan to surrender a longtime place in Congress for a low-level appointment in an opposite party Administration.

A Hoffman win here would be the most demoralizing thing possible for us, and it should be.  If we can't beat him in a 3-way when his side's vote is split, then we can't beat him ever.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Complete bullshit
wingnuts like him are electable and can and will win in swing districts everywhere

All it will prove is that teabaggers can win three way races when the Democrat is a name on the ballot and the GOPer is a moderate/liberal who gets endorsements from unions and supports gay marriage.  That won't be the case in most districts.

The more likely scenario is that the Dem will be a decent candidate and the GOPer a conservative, and the teabagger will get 20-25%.

Scozzafava is to the left of McHugh and may have run as a Democrat if the Dems had not vetoed her.  I can see why the wingnuts hate her.  If I was a wingnut, I would too.

[ Parent ]
Not only would the GOP never
nominate a moderate again, there would be serious third party candidacies from teabaggers against conservatives who do not toe the teabagger line (who still vote 95% against us). That would give us an opportunity to pick up a few more liberals.

It might even give wingnuts enough of a boost, that Sarah Palin might even believe that she could run as a third party candidate in 2012 if she didn't win the GOP primary.  

[ Parent ]
JSmith, a Hoffman win would prove conservatives CAN win everywhere......
You seem to follow a silly logic that a Hoffman win misleads the far right into thinking they're stronger than they are.

In fact, a Hoffman win here means they are a lot stronger than you think they are.  The joke would be on you, not on conservatives.

This is a swing district, Obama won here, and if Hoffman wins this thing with a bunch of Republicans opposing him and Democrats united, that means liberals are crushed everywhere.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Scozzafava winning
would let the Republicans say, "Look, we do have some moderates left.  All of you independents and centrist voters can start voting for us again.  We're not entirely dominated by the rightwing extremists that have otherwise taken over the GOP and driven away all of you voters."

As the Republican Party gets smaller and smaller, even an unpopular Democratic administration won't be enough to make people like Republicans again.

[ Parent ]
I've tried diarying this at DK, without traction
Remember, Kos did endorse Scozzafava...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

I "hat tipped" this diary (thank you, conspiracy) in my own.

If someone else wants to try diarying this subject at the great orange satan, feel free to use any or all of what I've written. (though I'd appreciate a "hat tip" too)

I still wonder
what was Kos smoking when he endorse Scozzafava. Though it did give more ammo to Hoffman who wrote:

"Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava is on the verge of winning the liberal trifecta - last year she got ACORN's endorsement, now she's gotten Daily Kos' endorsement and if moveon.org endorses her next she'll have the Holy Trinity of liberal endorsements - all while running as a Republican."

19, Male, Independent, CA-12

[ Parent ]
Kos used to complain he ran a Democratic blog, not a liberal one......
When we were the minority, Markos complained when the media called DailyKos a "liberal" blog, insisting it was a partisan Democratic blog, not an ideologically liberal one.

I don't think he's stopped to realize his post on NY-23 is a flip-flop.

It was a dumbass endorsement for sure.  Owens is our guy, whether you're a "Democrat" or a "liberal" or a "progressive."  He's our best bet here, the closest to our way of thinking.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I thought Kos was going to have to ban himself
as I recall that those who advocated Cindy Sheehan over Nancy Pelosi were banned.  This seemed like a worse offense than the Sheehan-Pelosi issue.  It's good to be king, I guess - you get to make the rules up as you go.  

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Thanks, I rec'd you there and also tipped you. (nm)
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
I did as well
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I have always voted for democratic candidates
However, I am willing to vote for Hoffman, if that is the only way Scozzfava can be defeated.

We need to make sure that moderates are marginalized in NY GOP.
Then we would have little trouble defeating them all in future elections.

what ???
"I am willing to vote for Hoffman, if that is the only way Scozzfava can be defeated"

umm, no, the way to defeat Scozzfava in this race is to vote for Owens, the Democrat ...

[ Parent ]
Erm
The odds of Hoffman coming in anything but third place are pretty low.
[ Parent ]
The only way Scozzfava to be defeated
is by voting for Owens. Hoffman is in third. By voting for him you are only helping Scozzfava. Owens will be first or second. He needs to votes if you want to defeat Scozzfava.

The only scenarios that are most likely in order:
1. Owens-Scozzfava-Hoffman
2. Scozzfava-Owens-Hoffman
3. Owens-Hoffman-Scozzfava (if Scozzfava loses conservative support but still has National Republican Support)
4. Hoffman-Owens-Scozzfava (if somehow Scozzfava becomes the totally marginalized candidate and loses both conservative support and National Republican Support).

There is no way that it can be as there is not enough non-Democratic votes, nor will liberals flock to Scozzfava, with Owens being the one marginalized:
5. Scozzfava-Hoffman-Owens
6. Hoffman-Scozzfava-Owens

Thus:
In cases 1 and 2 you are just helping Scozzfava by not voting for Owens who has the best shot of winning.

In cases 3 and 4 there will be no point in voting for Hoffman as Scozzfava will lose no matter what. But you will unnecessarily be helping to elect an extremely conservative candidate which will just vote against the Democrats 100% of the time. Instead of a Democrat who will probably vote with Democrats 90% of the time.

In cases of 5 and 6 you would be justified in voting for Hoffman who will vote against Democrats 100% of the time, instead of Scozzfava who will vote against Democrats 95% of the time. Because it will have the correlating effect of preventing Republicans from touting a moderate member. And Hoffman has a better chance of being removed by a Democrat in 2010.

However, cases 1 and 2 are the most likely, thus voting for Hoffman would have the exact opposite of what you intended. In 3 and 4 what you want will happen no matter what, and you will just help a total conservative to get elected and obstruct everything that Democrats try to accomplish in the House. In cases 5 and 6 you will be somewhat justified in doing what you are doing, but 5 and 6 is not going to happen.

Thus you should vote for Owens if you truly want Scozzfava  to be defeated. Even still if you want a someone who will at least NOT block Democratic measure vote for Owen. Even still, if doomsday scenarios are correct - every last house seat that we can win will be crucial in retaining majorities in the House for 2010.

Bottom line, I'd vote for Owens. No matter how "moderate/conservative" Democrats say they are, they still will vote Democratic most of time. And outside the south/west and other super republican areas there really aren't that many BAD Democrats.  

[ Parent ]
We may know more tomorrow (10/15) if the next Siena poll
comes out as scheduled, per http://northcountrypublicradio...  
[ Parent ]
That blog post seems to assume the #'s will be bad...
...but I betcha Scozzafava still winds up leading. Perhaps Owens has made up a few points, but there's no way she's in abysmal shape.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Stu Rothenberg and Red State disagree
Both seem to believe that Owens is presently ahead.

I've included details in my DK diary here http://www.dailykos.com/story/...  

[ Parent ]
NY-23: Scozzafava running out of money | 66 comments

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