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SSP Daily Digest: 10/12

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 12, 2009 at 3:11 PM EDT


CO-Sen: Here's an amateur-level mistake from the Bennet campaign: electioneering in the Denver public schools (where Michael Bennet used to be Supernintendo before being appointed Senator). The campaign sent mailings to a school asking for the principal's support and fliers were given to principals at a district workshop.

FL-Sen: The Kendrick Meek campaign is touting its own fishy poll that says that Meek leads Charlie Crist... among voters who know both of them. The lead is 45-43 for Meek among those 25% of the sample who know who the heck Meek is. In the larger sample, Crist is up 47-31.

KS-Sen: Kansas Senate news three digests in a row? I'm as surprised as you are. Anyway, retired advertising executive and journalist Charles Schollenberger confirmed that he will run for the Senate. With seemingly no Dems higher up the totem pole interested in the race, Schollenberger may wind up carrying the flag.

NC-Sen: It's not quite confirmed, but the rumor mill is churning up stories that youthful former state Senator and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham is moving to formally jump into the North Carolina Senate race. SoS Elaine Marshall is already in the Democratic primary field.

PA-Sen: There's an unexpected fourth Democratic participant in the Senate primary all of a sudden: Doris Smith-Ribner, a recently retired Commonwealth Court (which apparently is one of two intermediate appellate courts in Pennsylvania; don't ask me why there are two) judge for two decades. Her presence could prove nettlesome to Rep. Joe Sestak, by eating a bit into his share of liberal anti-Arlen Specter votes in what's likely to be a close primary. ("Fourth," you say? State Rep. Bill Kortz is running too, and has been for many months.)

AZ-Gov: He was probably seeing the same terrible polls that everyone else was, and ex-Governor Fife Symington decided to put the kibbosh on a gubernatorial comeback. Instead, Symington endorsed not the current Governor, Jan Brewer, but one of her minor opponents, former state GOP chair John Munger.

CA-Gov: Meg Whitman scored a victory of sorts with the publication of a story titled "Meg Whitman's voting record not as bad as originally portrayed." It turns out she was registered at several points in California in the 1980s and 1990s, but there's still no indication that she actually voted during this period.

Meanwhile, Whitman's primary rival ex-Rep. Tom Campbell may get a big leg up: rumors persist that he may get picked as California's new Lt. Governor (once John Garamendi gets elected to CA-10). I'd initially thought that was a way of scraping him out of the gubernatorial primary and giving him a door prize, but it could give him a higher profile and bully pulpit to compensate for his vast financial disadvantage as he stays in the race. Campbell was Arnold Schwarzenegger's Finance Director for a while, and they operate in the same centrist space, so maybe Ahnold would do him the favor? (Of course, he'd still have to survive confirmation by the Dem-controlled legislature, who might be reluctant to promote Campbell, who they rightly see as the most dangerous general election opponent.)

FL-Gov: It had seemed like state Sen. Paula Dockery, who threatened repeatedly during the spring to run in the GOP gubernatorial primary, had faded back into the woodwork. However, she's front and center again today, saying that she's "leaning toward" running and giving herself a three-week timeline (she put off the decision because of her husband's surgery this summer). Another minor embarrassment for her primary opponent, AG Bill McCollum: the co-chair of his campaign, former state GOP chair Alex Cardenas, had to explain that, no, he didn't actually host a fundraiser for Democratic rival Alex Sink. (It was hosted by Democratic partners in Cardenas's lobbying firm.)

NJ-Gov: Jon Corzine and Chris Christie have sufficiently reduced each other's statures that the state's largest newspaper, the Newark Star-Ledger, took what may be an unprecedented step, and endorsed the independent candidate in the race: Chris Daggett. I still can't see this giving Daggett the momentum to break 20%, but more Daggett votes are good, as they seem to come mostly out of the Christie column. Meanwhile, Chris Christie got an endorsement he may not especially want in the blue state of New Jersey -- from the Family Research Council (who also just endorsed Conservative Doug Hoffman over Republican Dede Scozzafava in the NY-23 special election). Also, Christie is living large after getting an endorsement that may carry more weight, from the New Jersey Restaurant Association.

VA-Gov (pdf): There's one new poll of VA-Gov to report today: Mason-Dixon, and they come in with a 48-40 edge for Bob McDonnell over Creigh Deeds, closely tracking today's Pollster.com average of 51-43. The poll finds Deeds getting only 81% of the African-American vote (with 9% to McD), far too little, especially in combination with what PPP's Tom Jensen is seeing, as he teases that he's projecting abysmal black turnout of 12% in the coming election. At any rate, Deeds is now touting his underdog status in fundraising e-mails, and is alluding to more possible visits from Barack Obama in the stretch run.

FL-20: Here's an understatement: Republican candidate Robert Lowry, hoping to defeat Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz in this D+13 district, conceded it was a "mistake" to shoot at a target labeled "DWS" while at a Southeast Republican Club gathering at a gun range.

MN-06: As state Sen. Tarryl Clark seems to be building a fundraising and labor endorsement edge, her primary opponent for the Democratic nomination, Maureen Reed, says she won't follow traditional decorum and abide by the DFL endorsement. Reed (a former member of the Independence Party) says she'll keep open the option of taking the fight all the way to the primary, a reversal of her position from months earlier (although from before Clark got into the race and Elwyn Tinklenberg left). (UPDATE: The Reed campaign writes in to say that the Minnesota Public Radio story that underpins this story is incorrect and that Reed never stated whether or not she would abide by the DFL endorsement.)

NC-11: One reddish southern district where the Republicans are still at square one on recruitment is the 11th. Businessman Jeff Miller said that he won't challenge sophomore Dem Heath Shuler.

NY-15: As ethics allegations take a toll against long-time Rep. Charlie Rangel, he's getting a primary challenge... from his former campaign director. Vince Morgan, now a banker, says "it's time for a change."

OH-17: Republicans may have found someone to run in the 17th against Rep. Tim Ryan: businessman and Air Force vet Bill Johnson, who's now exploring the race and will decide in December. Ryan probably isn't too worried, as he's won most of his races with over 75%, in this D+12 district.

PA-04: Pennsylvania Western District US Attorney Mary Buchanan is reportedly considering running as a Republican against Dem sophomore Jason Altmire. (Hopefully she isn't violating the Hatch Act too much while she considers it.) Buchanan was one of the USAs who weren't fired in the Bush-era purge (in fact, she allegedly helped consult on the list of those who were fired). State House minority whip Mike Turzai has been reputed to be the GOP's desired recruit here, but Buchanan's flack says that Turzai is focused on winning back GOP control of the state House in 2010 instead.

PA-11: Attorney and hedge fund manager Chris Paige is the first Republican to take on Paul Kanjorski (or Corey O'Brien, if Kanjorski goes down in the Dem primary). Still no word on whether Hazleton mayor Lou Barletta is interested in yet another whack at the race.

Supreme Courts (pdf): News from two different state supreme court races? Sure, why not. In Pennyslvania, there's another Dane & Associates poll out, of a hotly contested 2010 race for a state supreme court seat; Democrat Jack Panella leads Republican Joan Orie Melvin 38-35. Also, in Texas, Democrat Bill Moody, who came close to winning a seat in 2006 (better than any other Dem statewide candidate that year), will try again in 2010, and he has an interesting new campaign gimmick: he's going to tour the state in a big orange blimp.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/12
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Meek
The Meek poll is very specious -- which voters would know who he is except constituents and Democrats? 47-31 in the general is a little more heartening though, and Meek's narrow window of opportunity probably hinges on Crist getting beat up beyond recognition in the primary, or even straight out losing the nomination.

As for the latter, Rubio is a charismatic pitchman for the right, and I think a Rubio win would make this race pure tossup. I'm wondering what kind of oppo has been compiled so far, because I have yet to encounter any solid lines of attack on Marco from the left. The way I view it right now, Rubio winning the primary would be a double-edged sword: while it would make the race more competitive, a Rubio win in the general would be an unmitigated disaster for everyone but the far right.


A 16-point Crist spread over Meek?
Sounds about right to me. I'd be interested in seeing a real pollster poll the (potential) Dem Primary over there; I betcha it's competitive, despite Florida's Dem establishment rallying around him.  

[ Parent ]
Fiorina or Whitman?
Taking bets now on who's going to do the biggest electoral faceplant in California: Fiorina or Whitman.

I'd still guess that Fiorina will mess up the most, because she's just so incompetent at everything she does ever. I do hope she makes it through the primary though, because train wrecks are hilarious if they're political and not literal.

But Whitman's coming on strong with her inability to articulate a position on anything that's not flag-waving generalities and business platitudes, as well as her lack of voting record and lifelong disinterest in politics.  

Should be an exciting race to the bottom, though!


Well, I think they're both in pretty bad shape...
...but ultimately, I suspect Chuck DeVore probably can't beat Carly Fiorina in the Primary, especially if her cashload is as strong as it should be. That'll set up what should be one of the most entertaining Senate contests of the year, although it won't be one of the most competitive.

As far as Meg Whitman goes, she'll be lucky to get through the Primary; both Tom Campbell and Steve Poizer strike me as stronger competition than Fiorina has in DeVore. The thing is, I still believe, despite all the gaffes, Whitman can be competitive in a general, and that's more than I can say for Fiorina. Especially if Gavin Newsom pulls a political miracle wins his nomination.  


[ Parent ]
Predictions for November
Virginia
54% McDonnell
46% Deeds

New Jersey
42% Corzine
40% Christie
17% Daggett
1% Other

NY-23
41% Owens
40% Scozzafava
19% Hoffman

Charlotte Mayor
52% Foxx
48% Lassiter


Dunno
I dunno about Charlotte, NC.

However, with respect to VA, the Deeds campaign and Dem establishment need to ramp up black enthusiasm in this race....

W/O decent black support, Deeds is toast.


[ Parent ]
Re: Deeds and the Black Vote...
I think their efforts to bolster enthusiasm among the African-American community were first dampened a bit with the Sheila Johnson endorsement (of Bob McDonnell), and then damaged further with Douglas Wilder's non-endorsement. If Obama stumps again, perhaps things'll change, but otherwise, Deeds is in huge trouble.

[ Parent ]
Let's see if Obama lends a hand (no text)


[ Parent ]
MN-6
I thought that was really interesting at first until I clicked the link and read why Reed is choosing to do this.  She's miffed that labor unions aren't bothering to screen her for their endorsement but are rather just screening Clark and giving it to her.  Reed is pretty much acknowledging that she doesn't have a shot in hell at the DFL endorsement so instead will be taking it to the primary so she can feel like she has a shot.

I havent been around for a competitive primary in MN yet (only turned 18 in 2004) and I dont see Reed having a much better chance in the primary.  The drop-off from those voting for Gore in 2000 and those voting in the US Senate primary, which was quite competitive with Mark Dayton, Mike Ciresi, the DFL endorsed candidate and some other woman, the drop off was about 60%.  I was curious to look that up because if it a small drop-off, Reed would stand more of a chance with voters who aren't the hardcore committed DFLers.  But as the drop-off is rather quite high, the people coming out to vote are pretty much the same people who will be picking Clark for the endorsement.  

Not to mention, you tell any DFLer that was she the Independence Party Lt Gov candidate in 2006 and that should get their blood boiling.


Reed
Has she ever held public office? And if not, how many times has she run before? Also, when did she join the DFL Party?

[ Parent ]
Dont really know
I have never heard of her holding other public office nor her running for anything before, which leads me to believe none and never besides on the Lt Gov ballot.

We dont do registration so cant really track when she joined the DFL but IIRC she just switched to run for the race.  The Independence Party has a wide range of political ideologies but they usually fall down on the Blue Dog side, so Reed has probably always been a Democrat when having to choose between two parties and at worst would be a Blue Dog ideologically.  I dont really know anything about her ideology and she very well may be quite liberal, however.


[ Parent ]
Reed may be more electable
I honestly do not know much about Reed but IMO Clark is probably to liberal to be elected in that district. A Centrist outsider could play better in the 6th.

[ Parent ]
PA - Commonwealth Court
Yes, PA has two intermediate courts of appeals.  Traditionally, the Superior Court heard all intermediate appeals.  In 1968, the Commonwealth Court was created to hear appeals in cases involving state and local governments.  

NC-Sen
Come on Cal!  Please get in this race!  He would make a fantastic candidate.  Cal reminds me a lot of John Edwards, pre-scandal of course.  He is good looking, charismatic, and is a great speaker.  He definitely has my vote in this primary if he jumps into the race.

I like Marshall better


[ Parent ]
From the polls I am seeing
It looks like Marshall has a higher chance of winning this race.  What are the benefits of Cunningham over Marshall?  Is one more progressive than the other?

Bill Hedrick for Congress

[ Parent ]
Marshall
Marshall, funny enough, has little statewide-name recognition, even considering her being NC SoS since 1997!

[ Parent ]
Marshall
I find her terribly boring, she has little name recognition, and I just don't see her offering an exciting alternative to Burr.  Cunningham is young, energetic, and seems plenty progressive to me.  He has already been taking it to Burr at basically every stop across this state.  He has a fantastic biography, did a tour in Iraq, won an election in a very red legislative seat.  He has all the markings of a strong challenger who will be able to provide a contrast between himself and his do-nothing opponent.

Over the past few years I found myself posting similar comments to that during races that involved a perhaps less known progressive and a more well known but cautious and boring candidate.  I always supported the more well known one, such as State Rep. Craig instead of Carol Shea-Porter and I never understood why people would want the little known activist to win.  Now that I'm in that position I get it.  The progressive candidate causes more excitement and makes a person proud and anxious to support them.  


[ Parent ]
While I like Marshall,
I think having a primary might be a good thing (I usual don't believe that). It would help get our nominee's ID up and toughen them for the general.

[ Parent ]
Exciting the base
I love Elaine Marshall, but I don't see her as someone who will excite the Democratic base.  She's definitely worthy of election, but she's been very low-profile for a Secretary of State that has been in office since 1997.

Cunningham has the charisma and the ability to connect with people throughout the state.  The NC Dems would love him, and he's got enough of a populist streak to win in some of the rural areas of NC.

Marshall is a solid candidate, but I don't see her creating the energy of Cal (or Kay in 2008, for that point).  Also, I want her to stay as the Secretary of State where she's done a fantastic job.  I don't want to throw a penalty flag at her because she's effective at what she does, but I think NC would be better off with Elaine as SOS and Cal as US Senator.


[ Parent ]
Campbell and Lt Gov
He's always been the most likely appointment, with most rumors featuring him.  It's obviously the perfect launching pad for the Gov race.

Arnold likes the idea of a legacy, and he doesn't have a good shaping up now (and mostly its not his fault).  So appointing Campbell is a great opportunity for him to make a statement.

As the article says, Campbell scares the pee out of the Dem establishment.  I can't see the Legislature not confirming him, that would be low even by Cal Leg standards, which are pretty darn low.


Campbell
If Campbell were smart, he'd take the Lt. Gov. job, get appointed (I don't see the Leg. blocking him), and wait eight years in the position till Brown or Newsom term-limit out. Then run in 2018.

But the 2010 Lt. Gov. race of Janice Hahn (D) v. Tom Campbell (R) would def. be interesting....  


[ Parent ]
That is the only way he will get appointed,
i.e., cease campaigning for Governor.  

Democrats have an obvious reason to oppose Campbell.  But there are reasons why Republicans may not support his nomination either:

1) Presssure from the Whitman and Poizner camps.

2) Republican state senators, mostly a conservative bunch, do not want to see someone possibly to the left of Arnold become the odds on favorite to become the next Governor.


[ Parent ]
Dan Lungren
In 1988, the legislature rejected the nomination of Dan Lungren (now in Congress from CA-03) as State Treasurer, so it has happened in the past.

[ Parent ]
I think the legislature just might let the
nomination die as one last big F U to Ahnold.
Or the Dems could use it as a bargaining chip against something else they're trying to get support for...
Or make Ahnold nominate a placeholder not running for anything next year.

It hardly matters if that office is vacant for a year, because the job hardly matters.
But does anyone know who's next line for Gov. if the Lt Gov. is vacant (should Ahnold fatally crash his private plane or something)


[ Parent ]
The Senate President Pro Tem
(Democrat Darrell Steinberg) is next in line after the LG.

Here is the full line of succession, all Democrats by the way except for #9 (Republican Steve Poizner) and #10 (which may be vacant since Judy Chu just got elected to Congress):


1) Lieutenant governor.
2) President Pro Tem of the Senate
3) Speaker of the Assembly
4) Secretary of State
5) Attorney General
6) Treasurer
7) Controller
8) Superintendent of Public Instruction
9) Insurance Commissioner
10) Chair of the Board of Equalization

http://www.sacbee.com/static/w...


[ Parent ]
Campbell
If the legislature rejects Campbell, he immediately becomes an outsider.

Rangel, Schuler
(1) I'm excited and happy about a primary challenge to Rangel. That district is so Democratic that it's doubtful a majority would vote for a Republican, no matter what, so to get Rangel out of there, there needs to be a primary. I'm sure my parents, who are still constituents of Rangel, will support his opponent.

(2) Schuler does have an opponent:

Republicans have a candidate to face Rep. Heath Shuler (D-N.C.) in 2010, and it's Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman.


NJ Ballot Placement re: Daggett
A great article highlighting why Chris Daggett may face an extra obstacle come election day:
http://www.pressofatlanticcity...

The ballot in Cumberland County, for instance, has Corzine/Weinberg in the "A" slot, Christie/Guadango in the "B" slot, and in the "C" slot...a guy named Gary Steele. You have to veer over to slot "F" to track down the Daggett/Esposito ticket. Daggett made a play for a better ballot slot for a reason...his name is virtually lost in the shuffle here. This is why Chris Christie can still win by a few points.

http://bloximages.chicago2.vip...


Christie will win
Because in some county in NJ I never heard of Daggett is basically at the bottom of the ballot? Your kidding, yes?

[ Parent ]
Not just that county.
Daggett's several columns over on the ballots in all 21 counties, while Christie and Corzine are easily spotted in Columns A and B. This is a concern for Daggett because, although I wish I had a higher opinion of the average voter, many voters will go to the polls with the intent of simply voting for someone other than Corzine, or voting for someone other than Corzine or Christie. If a lot of support for Daggett is being generated because he was endorsed by the Star-Ledger and performed well in the first debate, then Daggett's okay. But if a lot of that support is just a vote against Corzine and Christie both, then voters may be willing to vote for whomever is in Column C -- even if it's some guy named Gary Steele.

[ Parent ]
If people are really voting for Daggett, it
doesn't much matter where he is on the ballot. Joe Lieberman had a terrible slot in Connecticut in 2006. But if they're not really voting for him, it ALSO doesn't matter where he is on the ballot, because he can't win anyway. You don't win an election by accident in such a well-defined field.  

[ Parent ]
Alright, perhaps.
Then he'll probably get closer to the 4% posted in that one recent poll (voters that'll bother to offer up the guy's name), rather than 15%-ish.

[ Parent ]
His ballot placement is crappy is every county...
At least Dean Barkley had one helluva ballot slot - the very 1st spot on the ballot. Daggett's name is sandwiched among a bunch of third-party nobodies.

[ Parent ]
interesting points on Daggett's ballot placement
in that article.
It didn't say his lawsuit was thrown out, just won't be heard until after election day. But at that point, won't it be moot?
The 2 major parties certainly gave themselves an advantage.

In CA, all the candidates of all parties major and minor, are listed in random order on the ballot. In fact in statewide elections, the random is different for each county. So at some places in the state, you'll be at the top. In other areas, at the bottom.


[ Parent ]
Does Bennet face any legal penalty
for his asinine move?

NJ-Gov: Christie up 1
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

So there's the much-hyped PPP poll we've been waiting for. It still looks kinda grim for Corzine, especially considering Christie's trouncing him among voters' second choice.


Corzine closed the gap from 9 points in the previous
PPP poll to 1 point but "it still looks kinda grim for Corzine"?

[ Parent ]
It isn't grim at all
I take heart from the fact Corzine did really well on Friday because Dems more often than not poll poorly on weekends.  

[ Parent ]

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