Mason-Dixon for the Las Vegas Review-Journal (10/6-8, likely voters, 8/17-18 in parens):
Harry Reid (D-inc): 43 (38)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 48 (49)
Harry Reid (D-inc): 39 (40)
Sue Lowden (R): 49 (45)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Hm, you mean that parading around the state with Sarah Palin's father didn't result in any Tarkmentum? That's a head-scratcher. But maybe that sort of thing will play better in the GOP primary:
Sue Lowden (R): 23 (14)
Danny Tarkanian (R): 21 (33)
Sharron Angle (R): 9 (5)
Bill Parson (R): 1
Robin Titus (R): 1
Mike Wiley (R): 1
Undecided: 44 (47)
(MoE: ±6%)
Oh, I... guess not.
Anyhow, the general election numbers speak for themselves. But at least Harry has company even further down the barrel: while his 38-51 favorable rating is bad, at least it's not John Ensign bad (23-43) or Jim Gibbons bad (14-51). In fact, it's too bad that Ensign's term isn't up next year, because Nevadans apparently can't wait to kick his sorry ass to the curb: his re-elects are at an abysmal 22%, with 44% saying they'll vote to eject him from the Senate.
And how about that gubernatorial race? Mason-Dixon looked at a number of scenarios for that contest, too:
Rory Reid (D): 49 (47)
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 37 (35)
Rory Reid (D): 33 (32)
Brian Sandoval (R): 50 (49)
Oscar Goodman (I): 36
Rory Reid (D): 27
Jim Gibbons (R-inc): 24
Oscar Goodman (I): 33
Rory Reid (D): 25
Brian Sandoval (R): 33
In the GOP primary, Sandoval beats Gibbons by a 41-20 margin. It's hard to imagine Gibbons finding a way to claw back from oblivion, but it may be amusing to watch him try.
At this point, though, Democrats might be better off asking Goodman, the colorful mayor of Las Vegas, to enter the Democratic gubernatorial primary. He's the most popular pol in the state (or more accurately, the most popular dude tested by Mason-Dixon), with a surprising 49-9 favorable rating. Rory Reid, meanwhile, is saddled with a 21-29 rating off the starting blocks -- which is no match for Sandoval's shiny 38-7. Yet, Democrats seem content to let Rory take a crack at bat, even when the evidence suggests that Harry is displeased with his son's efforts to climb the ladder at such an inopportune time. I don't think it would be too much of a challenge for Goodman, or anybody else with talent, to dispose of Rory in a Democratic primary. Unfortunately, no hypothetical Dem primary match-ups were tested this time around. |
