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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 11:02 PM EDT


It's time to get things started.

DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 106 comments
New Jersey, of course
Tom Jensen is tweeting that early calls show Corzine doing very well.  
I can't imagine a republican winning in NJ
when his favorable/unfavorable is 46/50 in a ras poll. I'm also starting to think that Rothenberg is a republican with his refusal to take Corzine out of the lean takeover column.  
[ Parent ]
I don't pay attention to him anyway

[ Parent ]
He ignores IVR polls in his ratings.
I'm not arguing that stance on the merits, mind you, but I don't think it's a case of Rothenberg being partisan (after all, he had FL-Gov ranked "leans takeover" as soon as Sink announced). Watch for Rothenberg to switch his NJ rating if the next Quinnipiac poll has Corzine ahead.
[ Parent ]
The Newark Star-Ledger -- the biggest newspaper in New Jersey -- endorses independent Chris Daggett for governor.
[ Parent ]
Rothenberg A Rethuglican???
uhh hello?  Is this thing on??

hell yes he is.

[ Parent ]
In the wake of the recent polls
I am interested in CA-Sen and CA-Gov not because they will be competitive, but I am interested in seeing how much Boxer and Brown (maybe) will win, and if they will have any effect further down the ballot. I have tabled many possibly competitive seats in the State Assembly, and there are also the 3 most vulnerable U.S. House Republicans (that won with around 50% in 2008), Lungren, Calvert, and Bilbray. I would not be surprised to see a few seats flip and possibly get 2/3 in the Assembly. Getting 2/3 in the Senate is a long shot, though we are favored to pick up the 12th Senate district.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Bono-Mack, too.
Top tier challenger + quietly bluing district + bored incumbent who wants to be in Florida with her husband = compelling pickup possibility. Lungren, Calvert, and Bilbray are all going to fight hard to retain their seats. I'm not convinced Bono-Mack will, at this point.  
[ Parent ]
Does anyone
Have any actual evidence for this?

bored incumbent who wants to be in Florida with her husband

[ Parent ]
Wishful thinking is MORE FUN, damnit!!
Who are you with these demands for evidence!  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
That is certainly true
And I hate to be a wet blanket... but that claim has been repeated so often without a shred of supporting evidence. It's starting to sound a bit sexist to me - I haven't seen anyone claim that Connie Mack wants to bail on his Congressional seat so that he can go to live in California with his wife.
[ Parent ]
I agree

[ Parent ]
Me too
Thank you David for calling it out.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Yeah but Connie Mack has a seat we can't pick up.
And Mary Bono has a seat we can.

I think that probably steers the wishful thinkers more than sexism does, though I could easily be wrong and you're right to be alert to it.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
One more thing..
Isn't it implausible to imagine anyone yearning to spend more time with Connie Mack?
[ Parent ]
OK, here's some oblique evidence of boredom
Years ago, I happened to be at a graduation ceremony when Mary Bono was commencement speaker. (This was well before her Mack days.) She began by saying that her staff had written her an excellent speech, but she had thrown it away. Instead, she spoke from the heart, which meant that she said nothing at all about policy, citizenship, crafting legislation, or making government work. Instead, she told tales of being courted by Sonny Bono and of their being "toasted." The students and parents in the audience seemed interested but bewildered. I think it's plausible, if Mary Bono Mack is the same person today that she was back then, that she is indeed bored with being a member of the House of Representatives.

After her speech, the university Chancellor said something to her. It was out of microphone range, but I could read his lips. Ever the diplomat, he said, "Beautiful speech."

[ Parent ]
Florida or DC?
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Bono Mack? Bored?
This is the first I heard of that.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
For some reason, nobody is looking at CA-44
This was SUCH a close pick up in a district that didn't look like it would be anywhere near to close.  I really wish people would be donating to Bill Hedrick, he is an honest guy adn would really be the best person to serve CA-44.  This district was the closest in California other than CA-04, which also isn't getting a lot of attention I have noticed.

I really would like to see CA-44 turn blue before the redistricting occurs.

Now I may be wrong on this, but wont redistricting be done differently this time due to the fact that Prop 11 passed last election cycle?  What does this mean in terms of the retarded bi-partisan gerrymandering that takes place here?

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Prop 11 is for legislative redistricting only.


28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
Not congressional?!
Wow, When can we get THAT on the ballot.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I agree that Hedrick deserves our attention.
He's holding a lot of fundraisers, making himself very visible in Democratic circles, and running frankly as a progressive. Calvert, on the other hand, seems to be nervous, suddenly paying attention to constituents after giving them the back of his hand for years. With proper support and an uptick in popularity for Democrats in general, Hedrick could take this. He's developing into an excellent candidate.
[ Parent ]
Alan Grayson
whether he wins or loses in 2010, he has really lit a fire, and fired up the Democratic base.  I get the sense that he decided to be a political martyr.  

I just walked out of Capitalism: A Love Story...
... and am basically ready to see this guy canonized, Judaism and all.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Seriously
It's refreshing to see someone talk, not caring about re-election. I'd like to see a poll out of there to see what his constituents think.
[ Parent ]
I'm praying...
I'm praying that Alan Grayson wins a landslide reelection; Then maybe other democrats will realize that supporting democrat policies and not letting the GOP walk all over them isn't going to doom them to electoral defeat.
[ Parent ]
Mmmm
Very interesting result whatever. One school of thought is going to be proved very wrong.
[ Parent ]
NY-29
So, as of right now, it's 10:26 am on 10/10, and I've yet to hear definitive news about Eric Massa's re-election plans. Does anyone in the know have some idea what's afoot?

Male, 23, DC-At Large
Just got an email, and he's. . .
RUNNING.

(All that buildup for nothing).

[ Parent ]
VA polls are way off on Black voting numbers
For a number of years I have been surprised at how off major polling outfits have been on VA black population. All 3 recent polling outfits have black voters in VA falling to 12%. Yeah right!!!!! There is no way tha VA black vote fall bellow 16%. The Obama bump in VA was 2% (18% Kerry/2004 to 20% Obama/2008) the off year numbers are usually 16% not 12%. This 4% difference when black's vote 9:1 Democratic is a huge swing.

During the 2008 election I saw a number of pollsters listing McCain winning 20-25%(!) of the black vote in VA (the so called reverse-Bradley effect). This was used to justify a closer than it really was polling election results in Virginia. Therefor I'm guessing one of two things.

1) Virginia has a very educated GOP voting base in NoVA that routinely lies to pollsters on their racial background. This would throw off pollster's numbers. In most states this would be a wild conspiracy theory, but VA's heavy number of conservative think tanks and organization makes this plausible.

2) Pollsters are relying on outdated models in VA. They for some reason have recognized the increased mobilization of black voters there. Washington DC has loss a number of educated blacks to Virginia this has caused an upshift in the entire voting rates of blacks in Virginia (more mobilized neighboors increases everyone's voting rates). Thus models based on lower turnout of southern blacks are less appropriate and the model should be based on MidAtlantic rates.

I'm keeping an eye on the outcome in VA to test my theories on this.  

That maybe narrows the gap
But with McD doing so much better with indies it isn't enough to get Deeds very far. He has one chance left - another endorsement from the Post.
[ Parent ]
The Post was important in the Dem primary...
but I have a hard time seeing it as especially influential in a general.
[ Parent ]
Yes but showing this large a gap
makes for a depressed Democratic base and fundraising. Being down 8% versus being down 4% is a huge difference. McD hasn't run a great campaign to be sure.  Why he is running a DLC/Blue Dog campaign versus a Warner/Kain Centrist Democratic one is beyond me. After 4 straight (Warner, Kain, Webb, Warner) victories by centrist (by this I mean moderates who don't run from the democratic party label) why would a nominee think distancing themselves from DC and the party makes for good politics?

McD should have asked Obama to stump for him in black areas (DC is a car ride away),asked Warner to stump in Northern Virginia, Webb in Norfolk (navy areas) and with him in Appalachia.

But I still have a little bit of hope for this race.

[ Parent ]
Deeds is the Democrat
McDonnell is the Republican.

Good points otherwise, though.

[ Parent ]
You're right, conspiracy, on Deeds' chances, but dopper's point...
...is very important for those of us who live in Virginia and are affected by the Assembly races and have to care about those, too.  Deeds losing by 5ish helps us do well in VA House races, Deeds losing by 10ish means some bad coattails.  I'm in HD-34 with a freshman Dem, Margi Vanderhye, fighting for her life against the financially strongest challenger in the Commonwealth.  HD-34 normally goes Democratic, including for Kerry over Bush, but it's an affluent white electorate who will seriously consider the GOP any given occasion.

So dopper's point is a valuable one because we need the black vote to show.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
dopper, your conspiracy theory is silly, but your bottom line is...
...salient on black turnout.  It won't be as low as 12%.  There's no reason to think it would be more depressed than in 1993 and 1997, which is what 12% would mean.  And Deeds will do as well as any Virginia Democrat normally does with those black voters who show up.

So I do think the turnout models are understating Democratic base turnout.

But conspiracy is right in his reply that it won't get Deeds over the top.  Deeds is getting crushed with white independents and not making up that gap at all.  And that's fatal.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
5 days till the fundraising report deadline
I'm very excited across the board to see more numbers trickle in, especially for NY-23.  If fundraising is close, I like our chances here.  
I'm curious on Joe Wilson
I think most of his big number was from GOP PAC's and the RNC. I can't wait to see actual the break down.  
[ Parent ]
IA-Gov, naturally
The Draft Branstad PAC was formed last month (as a 527, not a PAC), and yesterday the Iowa Democratic Party caught them engaging in advocacy for Branstad after Branstad filed papers for an exploratory committee. That's a no-no under Iowa law. Don't know whether the Iowa Campaign and Ethics Disclosure Board will take any action.

Governor Chet Culver had an absolutely dreadful week. He imposed a 10 percent across the board budget cut after Iowa's Revenue Estimating Conference came up with dire new projections for the current fiscal year. No department will be spared, and the education cuts will hurt. Hundreds of state employees are likely to be laid off.

The 2010 budget was based on the REC's March 2009 estimates, in accordance with Iowa law, but Republicans are citing Culver's budget cuts as proof that Democrats supposedly have been overspending. The party of Hoover still doesn't get that during a recession, slashing government spending by more than absolutely necessary can be a drag on the economy.

Meanwhile, Iowa's film tax credit program has turned out to be an expensive fiasco, with a criminal probe coming. Also, a federal audit turned up problems with how Iowa spent more than $1 million of HAVA money when Culver was secretary of state.

The only good thing I can say about this week is that it's October 2009 instead of October 2010.

Whoever's behind that PAC is unfathomably dumb.
Forming a 527 committee to advocate for a specific candidate when it's against the rules for a 527 committee to advocate for a specific candidate? Unbelievable.
[ Parent ]
"I Appreciate the Muppets On A Much Deeper Level Than You"
Some new stuff
Cunningham ready to jump into the North Carolina Senate race?

I think there's nothing much new there, really, until or unless he announces.

National Journal's rankings of the House seats most likely to change hands.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

Muppets?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01
NJ-Gov
When I picked up my copy of the Star-Ledger this morning, I was shocked to read the headline, "Christie reveals plan to close state's budget gap." Turns out, Christie's new "plan" was the same non-plan he had before. They had me going for a second there, though.

An excellent explanation of why Christie's new "plan" is a fantasy can be found here, at BlueJersey.

NJ Star-Ledger Endorses Chris Daggett
[ Parent ]
I know! It's amazing!
As a Chris Daggett supporter, I am thrilled by this endorsement! For the first time I feel like he's got a very real chance of winning the election -- more even than after the first debate.
[ Parent ]
Obvious question
So, between Corzine and Christie, who does the endorsement  benefit more? It sounds like the general consensus has been that Daggett siphons off slightly more R than D votes, but given the swiftly changing dynamics of this race in recent weeks, I'm really not sure how to digest the repercussions of this development.

Male, 23, DC-At Large
[ Parent ]
Well, it only BENEFITS Chris Daggett...
...but in terms of which of the other two it HURTS, if you believe most of the polling, the answer is probably Chris Christie. But only slightly. The thing with this endorsement is that it really helps to further legitimize Daggett's candidacy. Frankly, his supporters, while less in number, are probably more fired up than Christie's or Corzine's. So, don't be surprised if he really does pull 15%+ come election night.

That said, do I really believe Daggett can win? No. Christie and Corzine have shored up their respective parties' vote too much for that to happen. He can, however, conceivably win (albeit probably narrowly) among Independents. And, if that's the case, Corzine wins, because Christie needs a double-digit win in that group.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
Independents
A new poll had Daggett only 3 behind Corzine with them
[ Parent ]
Right, but...
...Christie also happened to be up 12 on Corzine. If that holds come election night, I imagine Christie winds up winning. If he's up 8-10% among Indies, it'll be a barnburner. Any lower, and I feel like Corzine squeaks it out.  

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
On the contrary
New Jersey is not Minnesota. What is pretty much guaranteed right now is that this election will be a get out the base battle between Corzine and Christie. And in New Jersey, that's bad news for Christie.  
[ Parent ]
Very real chance... hogwash
New Jersey ain't Minnesota and Wisconsin.  Corzine and Christie are guaranteed 35% due to party machines.  
[ Parent ]
I know all about the machines here in Jersey
But the endorsement of The Star-Ledger is a big deal. And a large reason for that newspaper's support of Daggett -- which is also no doubt a large reason for voters' support of Daggett -- is dissatisfaction with the machines that are running the state into the ground.
[ Parent ]
In the poll that didn't ask his name
Only four percent volunteered it. He can't actually win but yes, this endorsement is a big deal and I suspect he might actually outperform his poll numbers on election day which I suspect is good for Corzine.
[ Parent ]
His big problem is ballot position.
The question is, are voters who dislike Corzine and Christie going to vote for Daggett, as they say they will in polls? Or, are they going to vote for whoever's in "Column C" on the ballot after the first two columns (which are, of course, reserved for the party lines)? If it's the latter, Daggett could be in trouble, because his ballot position in most counties puts him in "Column F" or worse. If only 4% are volunteering his name, that's not good. However, I think the endorsement of the Star-Ledger could greatly increase his name recognition, so maybe the ballot position problem won't be a huge issue on election day.
[ Parent ]
I agree re: ballot placement
And, if this does indeed hurt Daggett, Christie's most certainly the beneficiary. This is all about the anti-Corzine vote, and Christie's name is gonna stick out much more than Daggett's.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
If Daggett gets even 25%
I think it will permanently shake the state's politics.  
I doubt that he will get more than 20% however.  

The only way it could happen is if either Corzine or Christie really starts to fade, and the supporters of that candidate conclude that Daggett would be preferable to the other guy, and move to Daggett en masse.  But the party machines will probably prevent that from happening.  As long as the election remains close, Daggett probably won't get more than 20%.

[ Parent ]
I don't agree with your first assessment
Did Ross Perot "shake" America's politics "permanently?"

IMO, no.  

[ Parent ]
He got 19% of the vote, though
Not 25%.

Nothing is permanent, really, in any case.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Suppose he had gotten 25%
and the results were otherwise the same? Would the impact have been bigger? I don't think so.

In America, you either replace a major party or you are irrelevant.  

[ Parent ]
In a sense, he did
His success in the polls got him into the Presidential debates, which caused the Commission on Presidential Debates to reform the rules to be so draconian that it's virtually impossible for a third-party candidate to be included now.

Anyway, I'll be surprised if Daggett even tops 10%. Third party candidates tend to shed voters when they actually go to the polls, especially in New Jersey where ballot placement is God.

[ Parent ]
It looks now
like a drop to 10% means a Christie win. Though I'm not certain of that. I wish PPP were asking two head-to-heads.
[ Parent ]
Perot's effect on the election was ultimately negligible
since he didn't carry any states.

In a gubernatorial election, the popular vote is all that matters; the candidates aren't campaigning for swing counties' electors.

[ Parent ]
It's a distinction without a difference

[ Parent ]
Obama addresses HRC
but says nothing about Maine or Washington.  
HRC=Hillary Rodham Clinton?
You mean health care reform, right?

I know about Maine, but what's happening in Washington?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Uh
HRC = Human Rights Campaign, a major (if somewhat antiquated) gay rights organization.
Washington State will be voting on whether or not to approve a civil union law in November. It's especially interesting because it literally affords the same rights to gay and lesbian couples as straight couples with the major (and obvious) exception of nomenclature. It's more likely than not to pass from what I understand, though Washington voters are notoriously quirky so who knows.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Ironically, I have contributed to HRC yet didn't recognize their initials. :-)

Which gay rights organizations are most effective politically and have the most impact on electoral campaigns?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Probably still HRC
but after their and other group's pathetic "leadership" during the Prop 8 fiasco, they're probably on their way out unless they can reconnect with the grassroots. What they'd be replaced with, though, I don't know.
I think Victory Fund raises a sizable chunk of change for the smattering of LGBT candidates that run every year.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
I wrote off HRC a decade ago
When they supported Al D'Amato over Chuck Schumer in the NY senate race. It was a real outrage. They also supported Chris Shays over Jim Himes.
[ Parent ]
they arent a Dem organization
And they don't want to be perceived as one so they support a few token GOPers when its all right to.  They supported Collins over Allen as well.
[ Parent ]
And I'm a Democrat
And I support Democrats, not Republicans - hence I don't support HRC. But their support of the retrograde D'Amato was particularly disgusting.
[ Parent ]
Well, in all fairness...
...weren't D'Amato and Schumer basically on the same page as far as gay rights? If I recall correctly, the HRC just wanted to make a point that they could endorse a Republican under the right conditions.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Yes
D'Amato was anti-abortion but pro-gay rights, as I recall. He was about as right-wing as he could be and still win state-wide elections in New York. He couldn't have been Jesse Helms if he had wanted to.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Agreed
usually the GOPers they support arent right wing in anyway whatsoever due to the general moderate/centrist ideology of those GOPers who also support gay rights.  So most often their picks are GOPers who we like and praise, as much as we can for a GOPer.

When I noticed they endorse GOPers back in 2006, I was a bit miffed but now I realize that they have to do this to keep themselves credible as a gay rights group and not a Democratic group.  Ive only donated to them once and that was because I got hit up by a random clip-boarder on a busy corner in St. Paul.

I will note though that I have never seen HRC endorse a non-incumbent GOPer.  They probably wont bother in NY-23 which is unfortunate because Id love to see who they'd endorse.

[ Parent ]
None
Honestly, the gay rights organizations are more interested in using money to throw expensive gala "fundraising" events than actually advancing gay rights.
[ Parent ]
A lobbyist is a lobbyist is a lobbyist. n/t

[ Parent ]
Here is how HRC operates
Ive had friends work at Outfront MN which is the statewide version of HRC and here is what I've gathered.

HRC is mainly lobbying and have left political organizing and state-by-state battles to the individual statewide organizations.  But, Ive heard HRC sure does try to chalk up all of the individual statewide victories as their own.  They are there to take the credit but aren't there to really do the work.

But to counter that, they do a lot of work on the national level.  Every election cycle, they do an HRC academy where they train 18-30 year olds in political organizing and then send them off to various races around the country as they have a large list of candidates they endorse.

The main area they help though is by sending big fat ass checks.  MN in 2006 with Klobuchar vs Kennedy, Bachmann vs Wetterling, Gutknecht vs Walz, Pawlenty vs Hatch and only needing 2 seats to retake the state house, IIRC they spent well over 100k, maybe even 200k-250k.  MN was one of the states they spent most on as Klobuchar is a fag hag, Bachmann we all know about, Walz is actually a HUGE ally to the GLBT community despite his extremely rural district (I have very little doubt he'll be voting for gay marriage someday) and then Pawlenty was the main roadblock behind all the pro-GLBT legislation.  So their spending largely reflects races where they think they can make the biggest turn around or prevent the biggest turn around when it comes to politicians supporting or opposing gay rights.

In summation, I think it is easy to dismiss HRC and their political clout but we dont see much of their clout, it is all behind closed doors through lobbying and writing checks for candidates*.  HRC are the ones who personally talk with Obama and who know his personal roadmap for GLBT equality.  Throughout all of the hoopla over Obama ignoring the GLBT community, HRC would say, let the man be, he has a plan and results are on the way.  So HRC does everything at the federal level and guides all the federal legislation through while also financially backing our federal candidates.  They do spend on key state legislatures and especially when control of the chamber is up in the air.  Im sure they also back other candidates that dont fall under those two categories when they are GLB or T.

* I divide corporate lobbyists from lobbyists who lobby for people, they are very distinct to me.  

[ Parent ]
CA AD-72
This sums up the brain capacity (or lack of) of the California GOP, specifically the Orange County GOP, and the current fighting between which wingnut will represent the 72nd, Chris Norby, the libertarian-minded one who supports legal cannabis and is meh on abortion,  (+!) who was a teacher at the high school i'm at (which makes me feel cool, just not for the right guy) and Linda Ackerman, a carpetbagger from Irvine who is appealing to the loony/establishment base. I'm not so sure Norby will get 50% to avoid a runoff, but its gonna be hard for MacMurray to win especially the anti-Obama sentiment is louder than ever and the fact that Norby is one of the 5 Republican Board of Supervisors, but i have seen yard signs alot for him in really conservative areas, so thats good to know. We had a A+ candidate in Fullerton Councilwoman Sharon Quirk, but dropped out after spouting some real family values about her husband's sickness.

Man Orange County politics are so interesting, beats the whole state by bucketloads. Also, Jerry Brown's website is linking to stories about polling for the CA-GOV race, which pretty much means he's in.

16, Male, Democrat, CA-42/sometimes CA-32.

I am a spoiler
 I will admit it. I should probably save him the honors but the place where Pat Brown is from can now be gerrymandered by you if you have MSL.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

Too many acronyms and initials here
What is MSL?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Microsoft Silverlight
 It's okay. Dave already set up California on the redistricting app.

for more election analysis, visit  http://frogandturtle.blogspot....




17, CA-06,  

[ Parent ]
Yup
it is now time to get rid of some worthless Repubs, and reduce the power of rural Southern Blue Dogs.
[ Parent ]
Time to get to work! :D


My blog
Twitter
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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Mason-Dixon VA-Gov
http://www2.newsadvance.com/ln...

McDonnell leads 48-40 which incidentally is exactly the same as the margin in this poll three weeks out in their AG race in 2005.

Nice little tidbit
I'm hesitant to write Deeds off after that primary surge.  We'll see, but I don't think that race is over by a long shot.
[ Parent ]
I haven't written him off either
Just being realistic that it looks really tough.
[ Parent ]
C'mon now...
...Terry McAuliffe was a much weaker front-runner during the Primary than Bob McDonnell is in the general. McAuliffe only kept a lead going for so long because voters didn't really know a whole lot about the other two dudes. By now, voters know both McDonnell and Deeds pretty well, and I think McDonnell's in a pretty cushy, solid position. I continue to believe he wins by about 6%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
That isn't much different
To where I sit. McDonnell is in the box seat but it ain't over 'til its over.
[ Parent ]
Hmmm
Sounds like somebody's a little starved for attention.
Sarah Palin is a piece of garbage
This woman is one of the most evil and dangerous persons in history.
[ Parent ]
Most evil and dangerous in history?
That's a little much. Even if she wanted to be another Stalin, Hitler, or Mao (and I hardly think she wants to kill millions of people), she will never have that power.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Agreed
She's Nelson Mandela compared to Dick Cheney.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
No, but her stupidity
is poisoning our political discourse for the foreseeable future.
[ Parent ]
She's too stupid to be the most evil...
...  actually, if it weren't for Palin, we wouldn't be getting the chance to see Levi's weiner before 2010.  He's busy getting all buff now.  Nice of him, don't ya think?

See, even SHE can bring some joy to the world, albeit without intending to.    

[ Parent ]
LOL!!!!!!!!!!


19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
NV-Sen: Lowden up 10 on Reid
http://www.lvrj.com/news/two-c...

- Reid's favorables are at 38-50.

- Tarkanian only beats Reid by 5.

- Lowden and Tarkanian are at 23-21 in the Primary, with 44 undecided. Teabagging right-winger Sharron Angle is way behind in third with 9.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

Are the issues with Reid completely a function of his role in the Senate?
Or is it something specific to NV? I have not been thrilled with his job as Majority Leader but doesn't he benefit the people of NV in this role more than he would if he was not majority leader? I suppose I can understand that people do not really want divisive figures as their representative/ Senator outside of extremely partisan districts or states perhaps but is that the only reason why people in NV are so dissatisfied with Reid?
[ Parent ]
That's a fair conclusion to draw.
Reid has to balance running the Democratic caucus with pleasing purple-state constituents. No easy task, for sure.  
[ Parent ]
Methinks NV-Sen 2010 is fools's gold for the GOP......
I've said it before and I'll say it again:  the timing on the "political environment" couldn't be worse for Republicans.  As desmoinesdem said above on Culver's latest problems in Iowa, the good news is we're a year away.

And that's a big problem for Republicans, because "political environment" is a very unstable isotope.  It will look very different, almost certainly better for us than now, by next summer.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
I agree with you 100%.
But I still think Reid's got a really tough road to re-election.
[ Parent ]
State Legislatures in Play
Does Corzine's rather lackluster performance this fall put the NJ legislature in play at all?  Additionally, do you think Deeds' performance will hinder our chances of taking the state house?
Luckily
the State Senate is not up this year in either state, so the Democratic majorities there are secure. (Dems might pick up Cuccinelli's Senate seat, although I'm not taking anything for granted at this point.)

The NJ Assembly is unlikely to flip. Each district has two seats, with two candidates elected at-large by the voters, and not a single district in the state has a split R/D delegation. This makes it very hard to pick up seats, since voters go straight party for these seats.

There is no chance of the Dems taking the Virginia House of Delegates this year. It was a very slim shot even if Deeds were doing well, since it would require running the board on all the races that would have been tossups. Right now it'll probably be somewhere between a +1R and +1D shift.

[ Parent ]
Corzine's stock on intrade is 59.9
meaning that investors on the site believe that there is a 60% chance Corzine will win re-election.
MN-6
St Cloud Times is reporting Clark raised $308k during the 9 weeks she's been in the race.

http://www.sctimes.com/article...

Impressive

[ Parent ]
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 106 comments

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