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NJ-Gov: Corzine Has the Mo'

by: James L.

Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 7:51 PM EDT


Fairleigh Dickinson (9/28-10/5, likely voters, no trend lines):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 38
Chris Christie (R): 37
Chris Daggett (I): 17
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4%)

FDU didn't include Chris Daggett in their previous month's poll, so we can't draw a clean trend line from these numbers. However, in a direct head-to-head, Corzine leads Christie by 44-43, up from 47-42 for Christie last month. Incredibly, this is the first time we've seen Corzine in the lead since January. There's more, though.

Rasmussen Reports (10/5, likely voters, 9/21 in parens):

Jon Corzine (D-inc): 44 (41)
Chris Christie (R): 47 (48)
Chris Daggett (I): 6 (6)
Undecided: 3 (5)
(MoE: ±4%)

If there's been a common thread over the past few weeks, it's been that Christie's numbers are beginning to come back down to earth, but that Corzine wasn't actually gaining any support in most of the public polling. Now we have two polls suggesting that Corzine is ticking upward, and here's how that looks in graphical form:

Getting better, but we'll have more polling results in the coming days that will either corroborate the trend or point to something else. Hang on to your butts.
James L. :: NJ-Gov: Corzine Has the Mo'
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NJ-Gov: Corzine Has the Mo' | 41 comments
Those two polls
have dramatically different ideas about where Daggett's support is.  Interesting.
Go the chart on pollster.com
http://www.pollster.com/polls/...
and click on Tools, and switch the Trend Smoothing to the More Sensitive setting. Then, we see Corzine's line rising at roughly a 45° rate for the past 3 weeks or so.

Also, if you turn on Daggett as a choice to be graphed, we see his line has peaked and is falling off.

FDU is crap
And no, I'm not being partisan. With Daggett's strength, I could easily imagine these numbers, but not when some dude named Gary Steele, that no body knows, has 12%.  
Oh, absolutely.
That one thing called the entire poll into question. Not to mention the fact that Gary Steele supposedly has 14% name recognition. How many people do you think confused him with Alfred Steele, Michael Steele, or RNC Chair Michael Steele?

Anyway, taking that poll's results with a grain of salt, an average of 50% of those surveyed knew who Daggett was, but the number actually jumped by about 20% after the debate on October 1. This is definitely much closer race between Christie and Corzine at this point, but I'd still say Christie is favored.

[ Parent ]
What it shows is they hate both
Christie and Corzine which makes it a tossup and in Jersey the Dem wins a tossup.
[ Parent ]
Wrong, GOPVOTER, you're reading the poll incorrectly......
Take a second look, and you'll see they polled two different ways, the first being WITHOUT PROVIDING DAGGETT AS AN OPTION.  When they did that, Corzine is up 44-43, with Daggett getting just 4% from people who volunteered his name off the tops of their heads.

The higher percentages for Daggett and others came only after those names were offered as choices.  You're right that those numbers likely are unreliable.

But Corzine up 44-43 was based on only the major party candidates being named.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Tossup
Christie's double digit lead has evaporated and now even rasmussen has called the race a tossup. We all know that dems in NJ outperform their poll numbers on election day. So can SSP please move this race to tossup.
Another consideration though
On the Dems outperforming on election day, third party candidates usually do too, so I would expect Daggett to poll no more than 10%.  
[ Parent ]
Other way around
Third party candidates tend to underperform their poling numbers. But as usual, it seems like in this case Daggett is drawing evenly.  
[ Parent ]
In this race
I could see Daggett getting as much as 20%.  
To be quite honest, if this was Minnesota or Wisconsin, rather than machine central New Jersey, I think Chris Daggett would have a serious chance to win the race outright.  I really think that a large portion of the electorate would really like to reject both Corzine and Christie.

[ Parent ]
I think it's an open question
whether he breaks 10%.  
[ Parent ]
Assuming 1%
goes to the three write-in campaigns and the nine other candidates on the ballot who are not Christie, Daggett, and Corzine, and Daggett gets 10%, then Corzine can win with 10%. Go Corzine!!!!!
[ Parent ]
I meant 45%

[ Parent ]
Polls in 2005
Final Results
Corzine 53.5%
Forrester 43.0%
RCP Average (10/31-11/6)
Corzine  48.8%
Forrester 42.4%  
WNBC/Marist (11/6)      
Corzine 51%
Forrestor 46%  
Rasmussen (11/6)      
Corzine 44%
Forrester 39%
Survey USA (11/4-6)      
Corzine 50%
Forrester 44%
Quinnipiac (10/31-11/6)  
Corzine 52%
Forrester 45%  
Monmouth/Gannett (11/2-4)
Corzine 47%
Forrester 38%  
I think from now on...
...I'm gonna make my Corzine prediction 43.5% of the vote. There. Good luck, buddy.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
2005 polls
while they had Corzine ahead he overperformered what
the polls had and Forrester underperformed.Odds are
Corzine will narrowly win.The MSM Is already spinning
this as politics returning toPreObama table.Even If the
New York Congressional Special election also Is won by a
democratic they will Ignore both to spin a Deeds loss In
Virginia even if It Is a narrow loss as a Obama backlash.
What they are forgetting Is New Jersey went from a double
deget lead by Christie to a dead head.
Your writing style makes my brain hurt.

[ Parent ]
We can't forget how the double deget lead went to a dead head

[ Parent ]
I like how he
hits return every sentence (or even mid-sentence) to give his post a kind of squarish look to it.
[ Parent ]
He's probably
hitting return when he gets to the right side of the comment
box. It would look like this.
[ Parent ]
Bloody typewriters!

[ Parent ]
That or copied the text from somewhere with a narrower filed width
Some email clients insert new lines after 80 characters or so.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
LOL, James!
nm

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10
[ Parent ]
Nope, winning 2 out of 3 means the MSM spins in our favor......
No question that if Corzine and Owens both win, a Deeds loss will get only a shrug from the MSM.  That Owens' win would be a PICKUP of a GOP-held seat is huge in the national conversation.  Virginia will be used as a counterpoint to prove that neither party has an "environmental" advantage.  And I think that would be correct.

I'm expecting the midterms to be a "neutral" environment, and all the better if we can starting making the case for that next month.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

[ Parent ]
Couldn't agree more. n/t

[ Parent ]
Thirded.


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Error in the numbers
16% undecided would give you 108%. Even in New Jersey, that's questionable.
haha
I wonder if they polled the cemeteries too...

28, Unenrolled, MA-08
[ Parent ]
i talked to my dad in nj last night
and he said that although he is strongly supporting corzine in the debate daggett was by far the best.

i do think that as long as this is tight, the superior democratic GOTV operation should pull corzine across.

Yup
CW is Daggett won by a mile, Corzine was so-so, Christie was awful. Good for Corzine all in all.
[ Parent ]
Time to change
SSP rating to toss-up?  I think this is in a different class than Virginia now given the trendline.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
Agreed
Frankly, Virginia looks gone absent some unforseen event or scandal.  
[ Parent ]
Hmm, yeah...
NJ's a toss-up, VA's lean (likely if Deeds doesn't start closing) Republican.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Can you believe
Its less than a month away? I don't think too much more movement in VA, and I think NJ and NY-23 will be interesting to say the least
[ Parent ]
Only us total nerds
wait with bated breath for off-year elections.  Your comment reads like it's Christmas you're talking about.  I love it!

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
[ Parent ]
Me too!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Funny part is
I never was that way until this year. I always had a slight interest in politics, but I never watched it this closely. I knew some national politicians, and the LA ones, but I could not have told you who Bill Ritter was a year ago.  
[ Parent ]
Wow
You learn fast.  You seem like an old pro.

I got interested in 2005, pretty much immediately after Bush's re-election.  Kaine-Gilmore in VA was the first off-year election I took a strong interest in.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

[ Parent ]
Except for a few moments
Like saying my AG was Charles Foti, the guy who came in third in the primary for re-election.  
[ Parent ]
The California recall was mine!


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
SUSA NJ - Christie 43, Corzine 40
http://www.surveyusa.com/clien...

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11
NJ-Gov: Corzine Has the Mo' | 41 comments

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