Again, Rasmussen finds zero undecideds

this time with Steve Beshear as well as Obama. He must be using some crazy likely voter screen where everyone has their minds made up concerning most politicians.

Interestingly, he finds Obama's approval in Kentucky at 47/53. I wouldn't expect Kentucky numbers that good in a non-Ras poll, so that was quite a surprise. Aren't Kentucky and Arkansas pretty similar demographically?

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by: Politik @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:26:34 PM UTC

WTF?!?!?!

Something is up with this poll...Beshear was unpopular not too long ago, now he's one of the most popular Governors in the country?

Jack Conway is doing better than Mongiardo?

Obama at 47%/53% approval/dissapproval.

I smell an outlier.  

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by: DTOzone @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:29:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why The Surprise?

Mongiardo's loose lips did him in.

Beshear's popularity either was going to go down or stay stagnant as people start blaming him for Kentucky's problems.

10 months into Obama's administration and these are actually normal approval/disapproval numbers in my opinion. 47% in Kentucky is still pretty high, higher than what O actually won last year.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:31:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Definitely seems like an outlier

Though it would be cool if Obama was at 47/53 in Kentucky.

No primary numbers I assume?

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by: clemensol @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:16:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed

The usual tease. Having said that I thought his Obama numbers were interesting today. A big jump there but probably just noise because Gallup went down. Probably hoping for a backlash over the Olympics too much.

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:21:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Beshear's approvals haven't been that bad

And I wouldn't have called him "unpopular" in the recent past -- for a Governor of a troubled state in the year of our Lord 2009, his numbers have been pretty good for the past year. Check out SUSA's tracking graph to see what I mean.

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by: James L. @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 23:51:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's Beshear's secret for such decent job approval numbers?

He needs to give some of our other less popular Dem governors some tips.

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by: homerun @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 21:23:43 PM UTC

Bleh this is Rasmussen...

Rasmussen is about as reliable as a pile of dog shit.
Rule of thumb, what ever numbers Rasmussen puts out on any non-election poll is incorrect; and any numbers they put out on elections that aren't 5 days a way are incorrect.

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by: Hamtree @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 22:13:57 PM UTC

Well,

This is the closest poll. This is Conway's best performance. This is the only poll that shows anyone tieing with Grayson. So, are you saying that Grayson must be way ahead of these?  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 22:34:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

No, the other way

this would suggest Conway is ahead of Grayson, and Grayson and Mongiardo are neck and neck.  

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by: DTOzone @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 23:49:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Obama numbers

Most polls show Obama's numbers right at his election numbers yet most states we have seen show him lower than what he actually won... so in some states his numbers have to be better than last fall in some places to keep him at about 52-47.  So  I don't think they are too wrong.  Also, it is possible that their likely voter model has hardcore repubs and hard core dems... that would explain Obama's higher than expected approvals and Conway beating Mongiardo in the general.

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by: admnok @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:00:37 AM UTC

If Beshear and Jindal...

remain popular, 2011 is looking to be a boring year, with maybe only MS becoming competitive.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:12:53 AM UTC

I doubt MS will be that interesting

The Democratic bench got decimated in 2007, with only one statewide elected Democrat left, Attorney General Jim Hood. I wouldn't be surprised if the Republicans made gains in the state legislature in 2011.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:18:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

True

I was wondering how competitive it would be if Phil Bryant got in, but since its an open seat, I figured it will be competitive. And I never realized this, but MS only has 1 Republican in its house delegation?!

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:31:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes.

The election of Childers last year put MS's house delegation at 3-1, with the other 2 Dem reps Bennie Thompson in the VRA-required black district, and Gene Taylor, who's been there forever, even surviving '94.

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 01:46:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And interestingly

almost like Childers, Taylor ran for his seat after Trent Lott won election to the Senate. He lost the general then, in 1988, but won the special election a year later after the Republican that beat him died in a plane crash.

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 01:50:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

...

Childers won Roger Wicker's House seat when Barbour appointed Wicker to the Senate seat after Trent Lott resigned.

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by: californianintexas @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 02:00:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again depends on whether Moore

runs for the Dems.  If he runs, it will be competitive regardless of the GOP opponent.  If he does not, it probably won't.

Moore was very popular as Attorney General for his lawsuits against tobacco companies.  Moore's strength is that he overperforms among middle class white independents/Repubs, in places like the Gulf Coast, suburban Jackson, and DeSoto county.  Had Moore run for the Senate in 2008, I think it would have been a tossup, even with Obama being a drag.

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by: JSmith @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 01:53:08 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And that only if Mike Moore runs

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by: JSmith @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:20:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Surprised by Rand Paul?

I'm not surprised that Conway's back in the lead--his little verbal meltdown at Fancy Farm was a single "sumbitch" but Mongiardo's verbal fireworks were much harsher. I agree these numbers seem ... odd.

But is anyone else surprised that Rand Paul is polling so well? Beating Mongiardo and within striking distance of Conway? To me, that's the most surprising thing about these numbers.

Kansan by birth, Californian by choice, and Gay by the grace of God.

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by: arealmlc @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:33:36 AM UTC

Doesn't seem so surprising any more

Paul was barely behind Conway and Mongiardo in those R2K and SUSA polls. I guess there's a pretty high floor for the GOP brand in a Kentucky Senate race.

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by: James L. @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:56:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stunned

And that's why I'm smelling outlier. A GOP primary look would tell me even more.  It's the Paul numbers that smell, not the Obama numbers (or, at least, not so much). Louisville and Lexington-Frankfort are keeping Obama afloat.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

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by: Tiger in BlueDenver @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 02:57:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Its time Daniel Mongiardo gets the boot from Kentucky politics

Conway has outraised him in money and he is is the only one who seems in a position to have a chance at beating Mongiardo. Not to mention a tape recording of Mongiardo bashing governor Steve Beshear. If KY dems are smart they will vote for Conway in the primary and end Daniel Mongiardo's career in politics.

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by: jmartin4s @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 00:39:53 AM UTC

Haha

How can the Dems forget...."Jack's Tax" as if Conway had voted on Cap and Trade and wrote the legislation. When you are trying to win a Democratic primary, the smartest thing to do is not bash your popular Democratic governor, whom you work for, and not act like a Republican.  

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by: GOPVOTER @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 01:37:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well many Democrats in places like Kentucky

and Arkansas are more conservative, socially conservative whites have stayed in the Democratic Party much more in these states than other Southern states.  I doubt Cap and Trade is very popular in Kentucky even among rural Democrats.

I also doubt either Dem can beat Greyson.  Perhaps in 2008 when the economy was the primary issue and the GOP was to blame, and maybe even in 2012 if the economy turns around.  But probably not in 2010.  Heck I think it would be an uphill battle against Rand Paul.

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by: JSmith @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 01:57:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Never understood tight races like this one.

Mongiardo is so much better than Conway despite his really nasty comments... he swears big deal... and he may even hate... gasp... other politician he has to work with. But he is a man whereas Conway is a machine.

Same thing with Paul vs. Grayson (an even easier choice given the info covered at http://www.treygraysonforsenat... ). Its obviously a spoof site but the information checks out. Politics is such a mystery to me I'm still trying to figure out how people can see things so differently.

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by: paradiggum @ Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 06:31:16 AM UTC