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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?

by: DavidNYC

Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 10:28 PM EDT


Apart from the biggies (NJ-Gov, VA-Gov, NY-23, NYC-Mayor, and the Maine gay marriage ballot measure), what other races are coming up on November 3rd?

P.S. You should follow SSP on Twitter.
DavidNYC :: Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
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Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 157 comments
There is CA-10
but pretty much the only ones watching John Garamendi officially become the next Congressman from California are the Cal political dorks like myself, so I can enter the data into the California Race Tracker. And of course there is the discussion about who Arnold will pick to replace Garamendi as LG. My money is on Bruce McPherson, since he does not hold elected office right now and he did run unsuccessfully for LG in 2002.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
Today
I read somewhere that Garamendi is trailing in CA-10. I cznnot believe this.
[ Parent ]
WHAAAAAT???


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Looks like
crap.
[ Parent ]
The poll is like a self parody of publicly released internal polling
The article is worth reading.  Very funny.  

In terms of other races, the Houston and Atlanta Mayoral races have there first round in November.  Should be intresting to see of Atlanta electes it's first white mayor in decades and Houston elects it's first openly gay mayor.  Don't have a favorite candidate in either race but we'll see if history is made in either city (though it's weird to say the election of a white mayor is historic).    

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
It doesn't even say Harmer is leading
The "report" (fundraising pitch) says this:

"As of Monday, Sept. 28th David Harmer has just pulled dead even with his opponent. Generic ballot has shifted dramatically to 40% Republican, 44% Democratic, as compared to 29% Republican, 52% Democratic in August.  When adjusted for likely turnout that ballot number moves to dead even.

John Garamendi is carrying a significant 30% negative in this District, evidence of a damaging primary election.

Among those voters who have heard of both candidates, Harmer is winning by a substantial 49% to 32% for Garamendi. This means, if Harmer gets his message out, he wins by a comfortable margin.

Harmer is also leading among Decline-to-State voters by a margin of 40% for Harmer, 26% for Garamendi."

The poll doesn't give an actual head-to-head matchup, just that Harmer leads among "voters who have heard of both candidates", which I would bet is mostly Republicans anyway.

[ Parent ]
It says Garamendi leads by 6 points
30% negative is similar to Repub registration in the district. Is this meant to be bad? The spin that Harmer won the ballots cast on primary election day is ridiculous. Mailed ballots don't count!
[ Parent ]
ca-lg
im really lookin to see who ahnold replaces the lg spot w. will he give it to poziner and give him a leg up on the race. maybe whitman or one of the others?

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
If not McPherson
then maybe Tom Campbell. Whitman and Poizner have been distancing themselves from Arnold.

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
I doubt anyone would want to be connected to Arnold at this point
he's toxic in both the Republican primary and the general.
[ Parent ]
He should appoint
Richard Ravitch.
[ Parent ]
Is he like officially Lt. Governor now?
and will this put to an end, forever, the whole "in the event of the Lt. Governor ascending to Governor, the position remains open until the next election"

I mean I don't understand the point of that crap.

Personally, I'm more in favor of electing the Lt. Governor seperately like they do in other states like Rhode Island...and California.  

[ Parent ]
Yes, he is (eom)

[ Parent ]
Pennsylvania is electing a Supreme Court Justice
And, if I'm not mistaken, the partisan balance of the court is at stake. That matters for all sorts of things, not least of which redistricting.  
That is correct.
   The Democrat (Jack Panella) has outraised the Republican (Joan Orie).  He is much more popular.  I predict he wins in a walk and the Democrats retain their Supreme Court majority.  Orie has already previously lost a race for Supreme Court.
  I'm still waiting for my absentee ballot.

24, Male, GA-05
[ Parent ]
Me too
Philly takes forever to mail out ballots.  
[ Parent ]
Why are there elections of Judges?
It seems like it could lead to some serious problems with campaign contributors...

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Funny you should say that
The Supreme Court had a case about just that issue this year:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

[ Parent ]
I feel like we need Scozzafazza to win and vote hard line Republican
to remind people like Kos that a blue dog is better than a Republican.  

Other than that, I'm thinking about IL-10.  I saw that Ramos (D) raised 545K.  Looks solid.  I wonder what the Repub and Seals numbers will be from there.  

I hear you on that
Kos is kidding himself if he think the republican in that election will not be beaten into submission to vote party line.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Kos claimed in a tweet
he didn't actually endorse the Republican, but I'd like to know how "rooting for the Republican" is basically the same thing.  
[ Parent ]
Because
CQ said he endorsed Scozzafava - big surprise. You use phrases like "rooting for X to win" and people are gonna consider that an endorsement.
[ Parent ]
Typo
I meant to say isn't instead of is  
[ Parent ]
scozzafazza
i honestly never thought id say this, but if i lived in the 23rd, id vote for dedde over bill. im a gay, liberal jew from boston and most of the issues i care deeply about are social, not fiscal. scozzafazza is more left wing on gay right, abortion, civ lib, et al than owens.a blue dog is not better than a mod repub on social issues and when it comes to healp reform, torts, free trade, etc in the house, one nay vote wont matter. but on parental notification, doma, dont ask dont tell and the like... it will. theres a reason y the conservatives are backing hoffman over her and, not to be cliche, but the enemy of my enemy is my friend

25. gay jewish male. amherst, ma
[ Parent ]
Point well made
I agree that it's huge to have a female Repub in favor of abortion rights. That being said as a gay man.
[ Parent ]
Scozzafazza
Is from the old school days...when MODERATION was a winning strategy.  That does not include blue dogs who are FOR buisness intersts over people.  

Scozzafazza is a progressive, with a fiscal flare and she would probably vote more on social issues with Dems and fiscal with Repubs, but not on breaks to industry over environment or public assistance.  She would represent her district well.

[ Parent ]
Scozzafava boosterism
Just isn't going to fly here. People are free, as always, to debate the upsides and downsides of every election. Even if they think that somehow a Republican victory would be better for Democrats, people are still free to express that opinion.

But what isn't acceptable is Republican boosterism. If you want to support a Republican candidate, you're going to have to do that elsewhere.

[ Parent ]
And just to clarify
Since this has been a hot topic of discussion lately. If you live in the district and plan to vote for Scozzafava, then I'm not going to object if you want to state that and explain why. But "Scozzafava is teh awesome" comments are not acceptable.

I obviously would never demand everyone support every Democrat. That would be absurd. But this is a Democratic website, and advocacy on behalf of non-Democrats is not okay around these parts. Obviously, the dividing line between "discussion" and "advocacy" is not always easy to draw, but I trust SSPers to do the right thing.

[ Parent ]
Sorry
But I like her.  I wish she had a "D" by her name.
[ Parent ]
Wow. That line is drawn a lot more tightly than I would have expected.
Especially given that Scozzafava is pro-gay-marriage, and Owens is anti-, and that is a personal issue for like 1/3 of SSPers.  Self included.

I'm pro-Owens, easily.  But I'm still surprised at precisely where that line is being drawn.

That said, I've never had to face the challenge of finding a rational and easily defined place to draw a line.  It can't be easy.

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Hmm:I feel VA-GOV is incredibly important
But eh, not much more. Anyway this weeks music sample:

Because the night belongs to lovers.

Enjoy.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

Awesome!
A blast from the past.
[ Parent ]
always ;)


Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Charlotte Mayoral Race in North Carolina

We need to win this one. I like Anthony Foxx a lot, if he wins he could be a rising star in the democratic party.

What are the chances?

[ Parent ]
PPP polled the race in mid august
Foxx     43%
Lassiter 44%
So basically the race is a tossup.
Here's the pdf for the PPP poll.
http://www.publicpolicypolling...
[ Parent ]
Thanks
Encouraging numbers particularly with regard to vision. If they are correct and he continues to win moderates and take more conservatives than Lassiter takes liberals, Foxx should win. Lots of undecided minority votes there too.  
[ Parent ]
Especially since
Charlotte hasn't had a Democratic Mayor in YEARS!!!!

40, male, Democrat, NC-04
[ Parent ]
Really?
Obama won Charlotte in a landslide, is the city more culturally conservative than somewhere, like Raleigh?

19, Male, Independent, CA-12
[ Parent ]
Really not sure why Charlotte has had Republican mayors
but it's notable that New York City hasn't had a Democratic mayor since 1993 despite being much more Democratic and Liberal than Charlotte.

Sometimes all it takes is a Republican fluke win, followed by years of popular Republican incumbents.

 

[ Parent ]
Charlotte hasn't had a Democratic mayor since 1987
And that mayor, Harvey Gantt, was defeated by Sue Myrick.

I've never really figured out why Charlotte keeps on re-electing Republican mayors, except maybe it has to do with Charlotte being a major city for the banking industry.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

[ Parent ]
Obama picked up over 10 points over Kery in Mecklenburg County.
Kerry only barely won it.  Gore lost it as did Clinton in 1992.  I think there's a trend here that the remaining red cities are done bucking the trend and are becoming Democratic cities.  Obama finally turned Salt Lake City, Houston, and Dallas, and almost turned Jacksonville.  Kerry finally broke through in Indianapolis (something Clinton never did), and put Charlotte on it's current trend.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Thought he didn't win Ada County
I believe I remember hearing Obama was the first Democrat since Roosevelt to actually win the city of Boise, Idaho.
[ Parent ]
That is true.
Obama didn't win it.  However, he did only lose by six, I believe.  And the trend is still there: Clinton did better in 1996 than in 1992; Gore did have a drop off but still did better than Clinton's 1992 margin; Kerry did better than Clinton; and Obama far outpaced Kerry.  

It's my belief that for Democrats to win, we have to win the places we normally win: the cities and the inner suburbs.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
But
we're also turning the more upper middle class/upper class suburbs as well, at quite a rapid pace.  Building our dominance there and keeping our traditional rural areas (PA-12, OH-6, MN-8, WI-3,7) we should have a fairly progressive coalition to win with.

But the suburbs are where we need to build onto our party.  The Minneapolis/St Paul suburbs, Philly suburbs, Chicago suburbs, Orange County are where we can build up vote margins for the Democrats, amongst other suburban areas.  And Boise and St Lake City are two cities we will see start to grow and shift to the Democrats.  Maybe if they grow big enough, it can start having an effect at the presidential level, at least possibly with Idaho.  Maybe give it like 10-20 years?

[ Parent ]
I should clarify.
I meant that we have to win where we normally do before we can even talk about winning the whole thing.  And I think it's very likely that you have to have a blue city before you can talk about blue suburbs.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Ah, indeed
That's what will make Idaho competitive eventually.  Boise will continue to skyrocket in population, that will create suburbs and then those suburbs will shift Democrat.

Makes me wonder, where will the GOP be able to win then?  I dont foresee them making inroads into the cities or the inner suburbs, we're the ones gaining in the traditional rich suburbs, their only place to start gaining is in our traditional rural areas, which they very well may start doing eventually, way down the road.  They have already shifted pretty sharply for presidential elections.

[ Parent ]
The GOP will change
Or if not, it may die or turn into a perpetual opposition party.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
I would wager
Charlotte is more Democratic than Mecklenburg County as a whole.

Here's the presidential results for Mecklenburg:

http://results.enr.clarityelec...

Now here's the mayoral primary election:

http://results.enr.clarityelec...

Most of the white (non-Charlotte) precincts went for McCain. I'm sure someone could crunch the numbers to figure out what the vote for Charlotte was.

[ Parent ]
It was something like 72-28 or therearounds
which was a step up from 2004 where I think it went soemthing like 60-40 Kerry.  
[ Parent ]
San Diego, too.
More Democratic every year from 1992 to 2008.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
"less republican" really
San Diego and Orange counties Democratic trending is more of a move away from the hard right Confederacy Republicans.
[ Parent ]
"More Democratic," "less Republican" same result:
Our candidates' consistently do better than the previous election.  Boring, white, liberals Gore and Kerry did better than the more moderate, more personable Clinton.  The black guy with the "Muslim" name did better than all of them.  And I think you're point is well taken, but I don't think it can solely be chalked up to a trend away from the Bible beaters.  Racial/ethnic diversity (coupled with the xenophobia of the Republicans) and (speculatively) a more cosmopolitan attitude would play a role as well.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I am also watching
Monserrate and Polanski.

The women have said that it was all in a good cause - or something similar.

Let's see what happens.

The Holywood left is supporting Polanski. No word about their position on Monserrate yet.

Why would they even comment on that???
I know that Monseratte also has similar charges to Polanski, but what does he have to do with Hollywood? Most of them support Polanski because they know him and have worked with him for years. Why should people in Hollywood even say anything about the conduct of a state senator from New York who they have no connection to?
[ Parent ]
Roman Polanksi
Is obviously an inappropriate topic for this blog. That goes without saying. I expect all discussion on this topic to cease immediately.
[ Parent ]
Monserrate
If he's found guilty (by the judge, I guess? He waived his right to a jury trial), what's the procedure for booting him from the NY Senate? And assuming he is, in fact, found guilty and booted, would there be a special election, or would the party organization pick a replacement to serve the rest of the term?
[ Parent ]
Yes
The judge will decide Monserrate's fate. The same thing happened with the police officers involved in the Sean Bell shooting case, which also took place in Queens.

As for Monserrate, assuming he's found guilty, he gets booted automatically. Paterson will then call a special election, but in New York, as we well know, there are no special primaries. So presumably the relevant Democratic body (the Queens Democratic Party?) would choose a replacement. All signs point to Assemblyman Jose Peralta as the likely guy. Peralta might even run against Monserrate in a primary if the latter somehow gets off.

[ Parent ]
Thanks for the info
Good to know he gets booted automatically. An expulsion vote would be the last thing a deadlocked legislature like the NY Senate needs.  
[ Parent ]
Referendum 71 in Washington State
If passed this will uphold the State Legislature's "gay marriage in everything but name" domestic partnership bill. Polling shows it passing narrowly but Washington voters can be weird sometimes, and odd-year electorates are typically older and more conservative, so we need to be on our toes.
SSP T-shirts
Don't know if it's been done before, but if they existed, I would would buy one and wear it. Maybe we can have some kind of contest to design/think of a shirt and then produce it. James, David, and Crisitunity, do you guys think we could go for that?
A neat idea
We'll definitely think about it.
[ Parent ]
I wouldnt wear a DKos, Open Left, or TPM shirt, which are the other three blogs I read every day,
but I'd wear an SSP shirt in a heartbeat.  I don't know why that is... SSP is just so much deeper in the weeds.  It has nerd cachet in a way that TPM can't touch.

It can't be green though.  Seriously.  That's such a bad shade of green too.  "Booger Green."

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
How about Babka Chocolate Brown?

[ Parent ]
I think before that happens, this website will ned some thing identifiable, like a logo or something
The closest thing I can think of that this site identifies with are those three words at the header of the webpage "Swing State Project", which isn't very identifiable.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
Something Jenga based perhaps?

[ Parent ]
Jenga, SSP, and a T-shirt?
That'd be a kickass Shirt! This would be an interesting proposal.
[ Parent ]
OH-Sec. of State
Marilyn Brown's departure from a race she knows is important, she knows she can win, and she knows will be difficult to win without her seems to me to mean only thing.  Particularly given the timing, right after the end of the fundraising quarter -- Brunner's decided to bail on the Senate race and is running for reelection.

At least I hope that's what's going on, because if not, we're going to lose that Sec. of State position.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

I hope you're right.
To be honest, I'm a bit disappointed in Brunner for trying to get promoted so quickly when she knows how important her current job is and how tenuous a hold her own party has on it. Running for higher office this soon after 2006 makes her look more like a Mike Johanns than someone who actually cares about serving the public.

Fisher strikes me as a distinctly 'meh' candidate, but he can still beat a corrupt Bush-era caricature like Portman with one hand tied behind his back. I understand the generational impetus behind Brunner's run, but this just isn't the right time. If a Republican gets OH-SoS now, it'll just backslide into the disenfranchising train wreck that was Ken Blackwell and everything positive that Brunner has put into the office since then will cease to be at a very critical time.  

[ Parent ]
She should just wait her turn.
  Tell me, what ever happened to Johanns?  

 I will never understand this obsession with keeping Brunner in her place

24, Male, GA-05

[ Parent ]
I'm in between
I like Brunner and want her to win the Senate seat.  And she did a good job of recruiting a solid candidate to succeed her as SOS (until Brown bailed).  However, if it has in fact become clear this quarter that she can't step up her fundraising, then I would rather lock down both races than have her as Senator.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
[ Parent ]
What happened to Johanns
He resigned as Ag Secretary, was elected to the US Senate, and has served since January. He's kept a relatively low profile in that body, although more recently he's been one of the leaders in the GOP's anti-ACORN crusade.  
[ Parent ]
She's 52
Obviously now is "her turn" if such a concept exists.
[ Parent ]
Wait her turn???
Barack Obama went from state Senator to President of the United States in four years. He didn't "wait his turn."
[ Parent ]
3 out of 4 commenters missed ur point LOL
not your fault!

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
Bah
This is America, if you want to run for the US Senate are 30 year olds, a resident of the US for 9 years and running in the state one lives in, then you have the right to do so.

I admire her going for what she wants, against the odds and against the establishment.  Its her life, she isnt owned by the Democratic Party of the US or Ohio, she should run for whatever she wants to run for.


[ Parent ]
So if a Repub becomes the next OH SoS
because Brunner & Brown both bailed on the SoS race, how many seats in Congress will that cost Democrats in the OH 2012 redistricting?
[ Parent ]
Zero
Did everybody else die or something?
[ Parent ]
Jennifer Garrison is still in
and despite her conservative leanings, she's still a Democrat and is electable statewide in a job like SoS.

[ Parent ]
Frankly...
I'm concerned that Garrison would use SoS as a stepping stone for a gubernatorial run in 2014. Garrison really is an awful Democrat; she ran to the right of Republican Nancy Hollister -- hardly a moderate herself -- and I fear a toxic primary with Cordray and other more palatable candidates.
[ Parent ]
NJ anecdote
I went jogging, I passed at least 100 houses. I saw 4 "Corzine for Governor" yard signs and 0 "Christie for Governor" yard signs. I live in a town where Obama beat McCain 66-34, so it's about 8 points better than statewide average. Read whatever you want into that.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
What county?

[ Parent ]
Mercer County
West Windsor

26, male, Dem, NJ-12
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure if the yard signs are in full swing yet...
I live in a decidedly Republican town (in Union County, which is heavily Democratic), and I've seen very few signs for Christie or Corzine. Plenty of signs for city council candidates, though...
[ Parent ]
Gore is campaigning for Corzine
in NJ

I always thought that what helped Jeff Merkley pull ahead of Gordon Smith in the polls in the Oregon senate race when it was basically a dead heat was when Al Gore started campaigning for Merkley. Hopefully the same thing can happen in New Jersey.

[ Parent ]
Big guns are coming
"Vice-President Joe Biden is headed to New Jersey next week to stump for Corzine and sources tell POLITICO that Obama will definitely return to the state before Election Day. Also under consideration: sending First Lady Michelle Obama up to the Garden State, where she is extremely popular."

http://www.politico.com/news/s...

[ Parent ]
I'm less worried about New Jersey than Virginia
In 1993, Florio was down by double digits going into a election day and then lost by only a point. Corzine is already recovering from lagging double digits and most of Christie's leads are with in the margin of error. In addition, I watched part of the debate and Chris Christie really did not come off well at all. I've talked to many New Jersey voters, numerous ones are not even independents and they've told me that Chris Christie scares the hell out them. I think at this point its time this race goes into the tossup column and I expect to see Corzine post some leads in the polls in late October.
[ Parent ]
This is what Nate Silver had to say about NJ
"Here's what this boils down to: there are probably a finite number of people willing to get out of bed and vote for Jon Corzine on November 3rd. And it's a number, moreover, that wouldn't ordinarily be enough to allow a candidate to carry the state. But the voters who don't want to vote for Corzine have two alternatives, other than voting for Christie: they can vote for Chris Daggett or they can sit the election out. If enough of them choose one of those options, then Corzine can still win a low-turnout election. Although Corzine remains the underdog, that possibility is indeed looking much stronger than it did a month ago, and Christie still has some work left to do to convince people that he is worth voting for."
Source: Fivethirtyeight.com
[ Parent ]
Although I've mentioned it
a couple times in the digest, I'll still say King County Executive. Polls are still showing this as a tight race (it's ostensibly nonpartisan, but it's Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine -- a really good guy, still pretty young, definitely a good bet for Governor in 2020 if he wins here -- vs. Republican former local anchorwoman Susan Hutchison. The local GOP certainly knew what it was doing when it passed that initiative turning KCE into a nonpartisan position, as Hutchison at this point has to be winning over some moderate suburban Democrats to still be in the race, and she's staying mum on her social conservatism.

(Also there's Seattle mayor. Two no-experience enviros facing off; both ideologically good but neither one seems very promising from a competence standpoint.)

Mayoral election is also happening in Albuquerque
It's a "nonpartisan" election, but everyone knows who the Democrats and the Republican are (it's a three-way race between incumbent mayor Martin Chavez; Democrat Richard Romero, whose claim to fame is that he ran against Heather Wilson in 2002 and 2004; and Republican Richard Berry).

Chavez is probably favored to win, but if no candidate breaks 40%, then the race goes to a runoff with the two biggest vote-getters.

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

Pittsburgh also has a mayoral election
Incumbent Luke Ravenstahl seems likely to win his first full term (he previously won a special election in 2007 after assuming the mayoralty in 2006). His two reform-minded primary opponents were both somewhat credible, but they split the opposition and Ravenstahl took a majority, anyway. Ravenstahl also won the Republican nomination as a write-in candidate as no Republican filed to run.

Two independents are challenging him in the general: F. "Dok" Harris, son of Pittsburgh Steelers legend (and 2008 Democratic presidential elector) Franco Harris is running as an independent, and Kevin Acklin, a "Harvard-educated attorney" (per a local news station) who I had not heard of until just now, when I did a quick search to see if he had other opponents.

I don't know of any polling that has been done, but Pittsburgh hasn't elected an Republican mayor since 1929 and has only elected independent mayors when they were prominent local Democrats. I'm skeptical that Harris (despite his father's name, which is gold in these parts) is a "prominent local Democrat," but I suppose there is always hope. It really is an embarrassment for Pittsburgh to have such a nitwit at the helm as it tries to enact much-needed reforms.

I previously gave my thoughts on Ravenstahl here. For more insight, here is the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette's 2007 endorsement of Ravenstahl's Republican challenger. Ravenstahl got around 63% of the vote last time; I'm at least hoping that he doesn't match that total this year. I have yet to find a city resident who likes the guy; his saving grace seems to be local union support and straight-ticket voting.

If it's really true that nobody likes him
he shouldn't have done so well in the primary.

I sure hope his presence on the ticket won't depress Democratic turnout. We're going to try and pull up our in in Philly by electing our first black DA.  

[ Parent ]
Honestly, I can't figure it out
unless he gets by on the backs of low-info voters who support the incumbent by default. It certainly didn't help that he had more than one primary opponent in both 2007 and 2009. If one city council member or prominent businessperson (perhaps some health care executive, as Pittsburgh has plenty) ran against him and everyone else stayed out, I think he would've had a real race on his hands. Another problem is, as he is fighting reform efforts, he gets the support and money of what is left of Pittsburgh's "machine." Basically, he somehow has cobbled together a coalition that supports him despite his obvious flaws. His youth and the fact that the mayor of Pittsburgh isn't term-limited troubles me.
[ Parent ]
Here in NYC
I have yet to find a person who likes Mike Bloomberg, but it appears he's going to win pretty big anyway, so.  
[ Parent ]
Ditto
On one hand, with the overwhelming Dem electorate in NYC, Bill Thompson wakes up on November 4th with a guaranteed 40% of the vote. My hunch is he can probably break 45% with ease, and by election day, he will have a noticable, albeit small, edge among registered Dems.

Holding Bloomberg within say 5%, however, is the improbable task at hand. Thompson's playing so far to the left that I find it highly unlikely Indies don't break 2-to-1 or even 3-to-1 for Bloomberg. Thompson's lackluster debate performance against Dem Primary opponent Tony Avella seemed to quell the potential that he could strike a potent enough punch against Bloomy in a debate.

I suspect the only thing that could win it for Thompson is aggressive, effective advertising in the final 2-3 weeks of the campaign. He's been holding back his dough for the very end, and perhaps his TV spots will be substantive and impactful. It doesn't hurt having the WFP on your side when turnout is expected to be low.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
I'm unconvinced
that Thompson will garner 40% of the vote. What percentage did Messinger get against Giuliani? Whatever it was, I expect Thompson's percentage to be lower, because Giuliani was so much more divisive that way more New Yorkers hated him.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Messenger got 43%
She lost 55%-43%.

I think that's probably around here Thompson will end up...I remember a lot more people liking Giuliani in 1997 than Bloomberg now.  

[ Parent ]
I remember a lot more people hating Giuliani with a passion
then than hate Bloomberg now.

We'll see, but it'll be a pretty big blowout, for sure.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

[ Parent ]
Giuliani '97/Bloomberg '09 = same position
If I recall correctly, Giuliani had something like a 60% approval rating in '97...among registered Democrats. Messinger's theme throughout the '97 campaign was essentially "alright, so I know most of you folks think he's done a decent job, but I also know most of you folks think Rudy Giuliani is a mean, conniving, charisma-less man. So, vote for me! A nice, fair liberal!"

My suspicion is Thompson won't lose by double-digits; these does seem to be a real resentment toward Bloomberg's third-term ploy, and Thompson appear to be shoring up African-American support quite well. The WFP line is helpful, and he's scoring a number of union/organization endorsements which didn't go to Ferrer in '05. It's also perhaps unlikely that Bloomberg scores endorsements from every single major NYC newspaper publication as in his last bid.

Right now, giving the third-party folks a 2% score, I'm kinda feeling...

Bloomberg - 53%
Thompson - 45%

But it could be as much for Bloomy as...

Bloomberg - 58%
Thompson - 40%

And could be as much for Thompson as...

Bloomberg - 50%
Thompson - 48%

It's very difficult to picture a scenario under which Thompson can actually win. Dinkins and Green lost in '93 and '01, even though they carried Manhattan/Brooklyn/Bronx...and it looks unlikely Thompson will take the former two. Queens is a goner. On the other hand, no way is Bloomberg winning 60% in Manhattan/Brooklyn, as he did in '05.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

[ Parent ]
You have a good point
about the resentment over the City Council vote on term limits. I'd be very surprised if Thompson gets 48% of the vote, though; I haven't seen anything from him that would be likely to draw so many votes.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
How can a Democrat lose queens?
Do the Long Island counties like Suffolk whatnot vote in NYC Mayoral elections as well?

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
It's easy for a Democrat to lose Queens
No Democrat has won Queens in a Mayoral Election since 1985 and before 1992, Queens was fairly competetive in Presidential races.

No, Long Island counties don't vote in Mayoral elections, just the five boroughs; Manhattan, Bronx, Queens, Brooklyn and Staten Island  

[ Parent ]
Correct
Keep in mind - Mark Green won Manhattan, Kings, and Bronx Counties in '01. It was Bloomberg's surprising 55-43 margin in Queens that largely attributed to Green's loss.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
I'll trade you. :-P (not that I'm enamored with Bloomy) (n/t)

[ Parent ]
Quick Question
I know that upon the event of a vacancy in the House, the governor of the state that vacancy resides in calls the special election. But, I also know that upon such a vacancy that there's a number of days that the governor has to call that election. What is that number? Is it something like within 30 days the governor has to call that election?
14 in California


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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)
[ Parent ]
Thanks
So it varies state by state. Okay, and the House established rules that a special election is required to fill a vacancy, but they let each state decide within how many days the election is called. Am I getting that right?
[ Parent ]
Yes
An extreme example is when Jon Corzine appointed Bob Menendez to the Senate in January of 2006; he didn't call a special election for his House seat until the general election in November (in order to save the state the cost of running another election).
[ Parent ]
plus
Most states run a special primary election, followed by a special general.
However, some states (e.g. the current NY-23 contest) have no primaries; the candidates for the special general are picked by party bosses.
In California they have a jungle primary with all candidates of all parties on one ballot (e.g. the current CA-10 contest). And then the special general will be canceled if the winner exceeds 50%.
[ Parent ]
1994 versus 2010
I posted this the other day to highlight the terrible position the GOP is in.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

Now Ezra Klein has something that makes things even clearer.

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

"Democrats...outperforming their January 1994 selves, while Republicans are wildly underperforming their '90s predecessors."

I think everybody needs to take a fucking chill pill
We don't remember what governing is like. Compared to some of the past fights over the New Deal and Civil Rights, the Democratic Party is surprisingly united and very on track to get it's agenda through.

We are so paranoid about 1994 that any little bump in the road is a black hole of death.

Good God, live in 1964 for a little while, they wouldn't be able to breathe.  

[ Parent ]
Absolutely
People are just impatient. Health care is coming, eventually. The economy will be better by next year. Repubs are still in the toilet. Not overly concerned myself just trying to calm the nerves of those that are.  
[ Parent ]
I partially disagree
2010 will be worse than 1994 -- in the South, where birthers, teabaggers, and deathers consist of a majority.

Outside the South, it will be pro-incumbent or pro-Democratic.  

In short, 2010 will look like 1934 outside the South, and like 1994 in the South.

[ Parent ]
I don't think there are enough
Competitive seats down there. Most of those that appear safe that might lose aren't going to be affected by low base turnout since there isn't much liberal base in their districts to begin with.
[ Parent ]
Three things
1. Many apparently safe seats in the rural South may become competitive, i.e. TX-17, VA-9, SC-5, TN-4, etc.
2. In many of these districts, there is a liberal base: blacks.  If they don't turn out, we'll be cooked.
3. We could also face a disaster in the South regarding the state legislature, for example Alabama's state legislature is still Democratic, it could well turn GOP.  The Texas House is very close, the GOP could solidify that.  I'm less convinced that North Carolina's legislature may flip, but it is possible.  Also outside of Florida and Arkansas, we're probably going lose every Governor's race in the South.
[ Parent ]
but those can be counterbalanced elsewhere
Democrats have a few House seats they can, and probably will, pick up; PA-06, IL-10, DE-AL, a couple of California seats.

Obama is usefull to help black turnout

The Democratic majority is so big, we have a buffer for the South, and Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Texas are no longer fully "Southern"

[ Parent ]
The one thing we should do
regarding the South.  Use the VRA to mandate as many black majority and black influence seats as possible.  A Democrat from a black majority district is worth two Blue Dogs from white districts.

Rewrite the VRA to do that if needed to repel a Court challenge.

[ Parent ]
Who are you kidding
a VRA AA seat does not mean a liberal voting member, do some research!
[ Parent ]
And these numbers are exaggerated
by how bad the Dems are doing in the South.  I really think that 2010 will be Democratic leaning outside the South.  Some of the dKos polls were stunning in how different the attitudes are in the South and outside of it.
[ Parent ]
The south is moot
we don't have all that many seats down there anyway. I mean realistically we have like 8 or 9 seats in teabagger territory down south and I'm not even convinced most of them will lose.

Basically we'll lose in places we've already lost...no big deal.

Personally I think the polls are skewed to look so bad because of the South and we're going to be surprised to see everything stay roughly the same because Republican turnout was massive in places where they already win.

And this doom and gloom scenario is cooked up by A.) the media looking for any reason to keep people watching and B.) bloggers looking to stay relevant by pretending they could threaten electoral defeat if they don't get their way.  

[ Parent ]
It isn't just 8 or 9 seats
Here's my list:
KY-6
VA-2
VA-5
VA-9
NC-2
NC-7
NC-8
NC-11
TN-4
TN-6
TN-8
SC-5
FL-8
FL-24
GA-8
GA-12
AL-2
AL-5
MS-1
MS-4
LA-3
AR-1
AR-2
AR-4
TX-17
OK-2

Granted that some of these seats are in urban areas (VA-2, NC-8, FL-8, FL-24, AR-2), which we should do better.

[ Parent ]
Not all of those are "Southern"
the Florida seats aren't really in what we can term "the south" though FL-02 would be.

You listed 26 seats, if we were to lose them all, we'd still a 231-203 majority...and we won't lose them all.

The worse case scenario is, let's say, we lose half

That's 13 and puts us at 244, close to the number of districts Obama won...240.

[ Parent ]
Forgot FL-2
yes that belongs there.  I consider Florida north of Orlando Southern.  

I agree that we won't lose them all, and agree we'll lose about half.  But that would have to be considered a 1994 type landslide in the South.

Outside the South, we break even or pick up a seat or two.  We'll get LA-2, DE, PA-6, and IL-10 and maybe another one or two (watch MN-6).  We'll lose ID-1, and probably another 1-5 seats.

So at the end I see something like 8-15 net loss.

[ Parent ]
There are plenty of vulnerable seats outside the South
SD-AL, MO-03, IL-14, MD-01, NM-02, NV-03, NY-29, OH-01, OH-15, the aforementioned ID-01, CO-04, just to name a few... the Republicans have a boat-load of opportunities all around.
[ Parent ]
I have a hard time seeing
Ike Skelton lose no matter how rusty he has gotten. Herseth-Sandlin is a target certainly but she'll likely be fine. Similarly Bill Foster. The rest are dangerous sure.
[ Parent ]
Except that
there a lot fewer fervent teabagger/birther/deathers in these districts than in the South.  Or to put it not so politely, there are a lot fewer white racists.
[ Parent ]
I don't think
that the racist vote will be the undoing of every Democrat who's going to lose in 2010. But we'll find out soon enough.
[ Parent ]
Me neither
I think its overblown. Some of the teabaggers are clearly racist but most would probably be behaving exactly the same had Hillary won.
[ Parent ]
Not every one
but I think it will be huge albatross for us in the South.  When 85% of the country outside the South thinks Obama was born in the US, while just 47% of those in the South do, I think it says something.
[ Parent ]
Agreed
because if the racist vote was really that pissed off about the Democrats and big black scary Obama, then why would they vote for the Dems in 2008 and elect these people to work with Obama in the first place?

The South is clearly operating in a different mentality but they always has been.  They've elected their conservative Democrats time and time again and they view these guys (they all are guys) as being good ole Southern, white, guys who support them and their views.

[ Parent ]
They are NOT all guys
Are you forgetting some of the female U.S. senators, such as the one from Louisiana?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
[ Parent ]
Actually MO-03 is Russ Carnahan
You meant Skelton in the Fourth correct?
[ Parent ]
Yes
You are correct. That's a pretty red district, and Skelton hasn't had a real race in eons. We had guys like that who lost in '94.
[ Parent ]
I'm not buying
Chandler, Boucher, Shuler, Etheridge, McIntyre, the TN and AR seats, Boren and Gene Taylor. These are people with a long history of winning conservatives votes and lots of them. Sure a couple could conceivably go down in a shocker but not enough to suggest the kind of meme you suggest.
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying all of those
on my list plus FL-2 will go down.  But a few who you don't expect will go down, simply because the birther/teabagger base will be out in full force to defeat anyone who is a Democrat to try to send a message to Obama that they hate blacks and want their white supremacist nation back.  
[ Parent ]
Maybe a couple will
But you were talking about a southern wave. I just don't see it outside of freshmen really.
[ Parent ]
Here's whom I think will likely go down
VA-5
AL-2
AL-5
MS-1
GA-8
LA-3
FL-8
FL-24

I'd say VA-2 is probably a good shot to lose too.  And another 3-6 beyond these ones, such as VA-9, TN-4, TX-17, AR-2, etc.

[ Parent ]
Kosmas I think has the best chance
But yeah the rest are tough. Not so much the last four IMO.
[ Parent ]
I'd love to see what the blogsphere turns into
if the Blue Dogs survive and Periello and Grayson got ousted.

[ Parent ]
You sound like you have
an axe to grind with the netroots.  You have shown this attitude ever since I have seen you here and it is quite irritating.

But your wish isn't going to happen.  Both Perrielo and Grayson, as well as several Blue Dogs in the South will be defeated in 2010.  The one I want to see defeated is Parker Griffith.  As I've said before, I'd vote for Dick Cheney, Rush Limbaugh, or Glenn Beck over the cancer Parker Griffith.

[ Parent ]
Don't get that at all
Rhetorical question. Valid point. Quite irritating to suggest all these seats are definite goners. Nobody knows that. Several people who look most in danger will likely survive a la Gerlach, Kirk and Reichert. There is no such thing as uniform swing. Campaigns, money and candidates do matter.
[ Parent ]
I don't wish for it

[ Parent ]
Griffith is a dick
but he's not nearly as bad as Bright
[ Parent ]
GA-12 looks okay at this point
Their top recruit dropped out.  They're left with an activist and the fire chief from a town of about 2,500 located at the far end of the district.  And former Rep. Max Burns, whom Barrow defeated in 2004 and 2006, is considering a run for GA-09.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
GA 08 will be fine too
Marshall has survived more than a few scares and his challenger as this point is pretty weak. For a good reference point, I like to look at the CQ Politics Map and it only shows one Democratic district as a tossup as of now. I'd expect a few "leans D" seat to flip but overall nothing too stunning.
[ Parent ]
Actually two districts
Missed MD 01.
[ Parent ]
Just curious..
(forgive my sarcasm in advance...please).

Is this President Obama the same Barack Obama who ran for president and was elected last November?  I was just curious based on predictions of gloom and doom in the south.

Because it seems to me the people who voted then are the same people voting in 2010.  Didn't Obama win North Carolina, suddenly half the state's congressional delegation is in jeopardy?  Why did they vote for him then?  Wasn't the question of his citizenship an issue before the election?

Ditto Virginia and Florida.  And seriously, some of these districts (as pointed out below) just aren't really in play.  

Am I really supposed to believe that the birthers and teabaggers are suddenly more powerful than they were previously?  Organized racism can only do so much in a society where 1 man/woman gets one vote, no matter how loud and crazy they are.

We'll win some and lose some, but 26 seats, I'd bet $10 (or babk's in case this is construed as real gambling lol) per seat and you can send me a check for the balance you'll owe me.

[ Parent ]
The concern
in these districts is that the Democratic base may stay home, discouraged by the apparent lack of progress on health care and the like, while the birthers/teabaggers/etc. are out in full force.

My blog
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[ Parent ]
Anyone have info on Miami's mayoral race?
I read somewhere (I think ballotbox) that it's expected to be competitive, buy I can find very little info about it.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


Dems fortunes depend on the economy
I'm not so sure the economy will have turned around by election time next year. At least when it comes to employment which is what most average voters care about. There seems to be a consensus among the economists I've seen and read that double digit unemployment could last well into 2010. That will definitely hurt the democrats as they are the governing party. Also, I don't think just passing any health care bill is automatically a positive. Do most people, not the conservative repubs, believe the bill will help them? If so that's great for the dems but if not it could really bite them in the rear. All the doom and gloom scenarios seem off base right now. Despite the democrats problems, this republican party has gotten so conservative & turned off a lot of swing voters. But I could also see senators like Reid, Dodd, and Lincoln go down next year. So the dems need to bring their A game from the Pres on down.  
I would bet on
double-digit unemployment lasting into 2011.  
[ Parent ]
What a downer


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
[ Parent ]
I would take that bet
I think it's possible the unemployment rate will BARELY rise about 10%.

Despite the bad numbers, the trend is real. Almost half the number of jobs were lost in September than in June...if we continue that trend, we'll be creating jobs by mid-winter and after job creation comes dropping unemployment.

I do thing it will drop slowly though and remain over 7% for the foreseeable future...but that happened in the 1980's too.  

[ Parent ]
I'm in between
I think 10+ unemployment stays with us well into 2010, but I don't see the catalyst for a recovery.  

We really do have plenty of houses and cars for now as this recession has proved.  And oil just isn't low enough to spur any other growth.

Ironically I just think things stay the way they are for a while, no better no worse  

[ Parent ]
Windsor Heights, IA City Council
My little corner of the world, Iowa's only inner-ring suburb Windsor Heights has city council elections scheduled for November 3. For once I will be voting for a Republican. Only two of the six, or possibly seven, City Council candidates support putting sidewalks on streets with significant pedestrian traffic (near an elementary school and to the "town center" shopping mall). So, I'm only voting for those two. The top three vote-getters win seats on the council, and in recent years the margin between third place and fourth place was two votes one year and seven votes another year.
Purges: FDR and Obama
Read this Op-Ed in the New York Times; it's interesting:

All the President's Meddling

Some illustrative quotes:

In 1938, in the middle of his second term, Franklin D. Roosevelt found himself stuck. Two years earlier, every state in the union - except Maine and Vermont - had joined in a collective vote of confidence in Roosevelt and the New Deal. But that overwhelming mandate proved to be anything but shatterproof.

Even though Democrats held staggering majorities in both chambers of Congress, that huge Democratic majority was deceptive. Conservative Democrats - senators like Millard Tydings of Maryland, Walter George of Georgia and Ellison Smith of South Carolina - allied themselves with Republicans to obstruct and vote down key New Deal bills.

But in Maryland as in other states in which the president spoke out against the incumbents, the purge failed. It succeeded in only one race, against John O'Connor, a New Yorker who was the reactionary chairman of the powerful House Rules Committee.

In the end, the purge was one of the few glaring political missteps in Roosevelt's long career, and afterward he had to struggle to make amends and repair relations with the men he had tried to oust. As it turned out, many of the Democratic conservatives - especially those from the South - whom Roosevelt had sought to banish were staunch internationalists who would soon become his loyal allies as he battled isolationists over America's role in World War II.

 

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  
Take it with the proverbial
But Rasmussen has Conway and Grayson exactly tied in Kentucky.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In? | 157 comments

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