I imagine Castle passes

But, it's still not great news when even Christine O'Donnell can keep a Biden under 50%.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 16:50:26 PM UTC

Hellllllooooooo this is Rasmussen

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by: DTOzone @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 17:58:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I hope so

I imagine Beau would still win versus Castle but it is a huge headache better done without.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:13:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eh, I don't see much in that.

Joe Biden in his "coasting" period (ie, everything after his first two elections) averaged around 60% of the vote.  For his son, who isn't even officially in the race yet, more than a year from the vote, this seems like a very reasonable total.

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by: SC @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:55:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I imagine that Castle will take a pass on this race

I also think we can possibly downplay the fact that Castle has won every election since 1966.  William Roth had a similar record, but Carper took care of that.

Overall, my feeling is that Castle will take a pass on this race.  

What I find so surprising is that the Indies are breaking heavily to the GOP.  That bothers me, but hopefully Beau can introduce himself as a reasonable candidate for US Senator.  I'm pretty sure he will be a great US Senator.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 17:33:05 PM UTC

Tarheeman, remember, the GOP is at their high point in the cycle......

I've believed all these months that the timing for the Republicans on "political environment" is awful.  They're all excited that it's so favorable for them now.  But "now" it's October 2009, not October 2010.

The national conversation will be completely different next summer and fall.  The economy will be better, health care will be off the table with some kind of "reform" long since enacted.

That doesn't mean other things can't bite our asses.  Afghanistan could be electoral trouble...although not likely because "trouble" translates to Americans wanting out, and it's the GOP who want to stay in while it's largely Democrats who want out.  So it's tough for Republicans to parlay the issue into electoral support for their side.  Other issues could hurt us, including things not even on the table today and not forseeable.

But the things hurting us today aren't going to hurt us in November 2010.

And what that means for this poll is that numbers like these will be a distant memory next year.  Perhaps not for a few troubled incumbents like Chris Dodd who might be fighting for his political life right through the 11th hour, but for any good Democrat without a "fireable offense," they'll be sitting in good shape.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 18:42:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Afghanistan

I don't agree with you that the war there couldn't be an electoral issue for the Republicans. They can always argue that Obama is mismanaging the war.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 18:44:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pan, it's not so easy for them to argue that as a point because...

...it necessarily raises the question of what do the Republicans want to do differently?

Iraq was pretty straightforward.  The party who started and managed the war was for it, and the opposition was against it.  Yes there was a lot more nuance than that, Kerry never argued for just pulling out, but the basics were really that simple in voters' minds.

Afghanistan is tougher politically for Republicans unless they actually oppose the war in some way, shape, or form.  And "oppose" does not mean sending more troops or throwing more money into it.  So arguing Obama has "mismanaged" the war" doesn't work for them so well.  It works only if a majority of voters, especially independents, are upset about Afghanistan and want us to do more there.  But that's not likely, the public polling already shows Democrats and independents in surprisingly similar numbers wanting out.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:24:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I definitely get your points

Well stated. But I'm sure if they think that it's useful in their districts to mention Afghanistan, "Obama is losing/has lost" will figure in their arguments, somehow.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:46:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They can't be coherent

But I'm not convinced they need to be. In Britain the Tories are far more supportive of long-term involvement in Afghanistan than Labour is (and if one considers the party members rather than the MPs, the distance is astronomical) but they still criticise the conduct of the war, on some pretty specious grounds.

There are limits as to the effectiveness of this, and in Britain it's made easier by Brown being so unpopular that Cameron doesn't have to make sense, but low-info voters could be swayed by a campaign complaining 1) Democrats don't support and fund the troops and 2) Obama is interfering and not letting the generals win the war.

If, as seems overwhelmingly probable, Afghanistan is still a mess come next year, they can also gain ground just from a nebulous sense that no progress has been made. Opposition to involvement in Afghanistan in the public at large can't find an outlet unless one of the parties takes that up, and if the closest you can get is complaints about its management, plenty of badly-informed voters will go for that. Again, there are British parallels and given that you don't have a third option that's less militaristic, it's likely you'll have it worse.

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by: Englishlefty @ Sat Oct 03, 2009 at 01:29:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I tend to agree

The Republicans have peaked too early.  The Democrats might have peaked around May when some of us (myself included) thought we might have as many as 65 or 66 Democratic Senators after the 2010 election.  We will probably see some more peaks and valleys during the next year.  Unemployment numbers came out today and indicates that 260,000 more workers are out of jobs and the National Employment rate is 9.8%.  In reality, the number would be much higher if we were under a McCain administration, but that's a "What if" scenario.  

What will come to haunt the Republicans is that they have not provided alternatives, but instead believe saying "No" to anything of importance is all they need to do.

I think Dodd will survive in CT, and I think Reid will be the one having the fight for his life.  Lincoln has other issues, and so does Bennet, but overall I'm feeling pretty good about are party for 2010.

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:38:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Republicans have not "peaked"

They are staggeringly unpopular.

They have near infinte ability to do better, and also can drop even lower than they are now.

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by: tommypaine @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 23:31:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In the polls

The GOP numbers have been up in the last few months.  That's all...

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 23:33:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Why are you sure he'd be a great senator?

Is there anything in his record or speeches you've heard to indicate that?

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 18:43:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good question

While watching the Democratic National Convention, I found Beau to be one of the best speakers.  In fact, I think Beau is a better speaker than his father, but maybe not as entertaining.  He delivered a tremendous speech about his father and I was really taken aback when he said that he, his brother, and his father finally married "his mom".  That really struck a cord in me.  The guy showed to me that he has gone thru a lot of stress in his youth and was able to be a fine citizen.  I know that the speech was written/edited by others, but he gave a very effective promotion for his father.

Other reasons include:

1.  Serving as State Attorney General of Delaware.
2.  Father as VP(his father will be available to guide his son during his early years as Senator).  I'm not one for nepotism, but I think Joe could polish his son when he is in the Senate.  Having a true confidant like Joe will be good for Beau.
3.  Military background.  He understands Iraq better than most politicians.
4.  He will be a reliable vote for the Democrats.  He's not going to vote against the Obama administration very often.

At the same time, I imagine there are other Democrats in Delaware that could be a great US Senator.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04

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by: Tarheeman1993 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:32:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

O'Donnell Getting 40%

Now THAT'S scary, and great time too cause Halloween is coming up.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 18:26:11 PM UTC

Last year

She got 35% against Joe. Open seat, better year for Repubs, Rasmussen poll. Not particularly shocking.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:12:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

if Rasmussen only has Castle up by 5

I feel really good about this race.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 18:58:25 PM UTC

desmoinesdem, my sentiment exactly......

That's exactly what I thought.

I have thought all along that Castle is more likely to either change his mind about reelection or just retire than try for a Senate run against Beau Biden.  It's awfully daunting a task for him at his age and at this stage of his career.  And victory means only that he gets to be one of 40ish Republican Senators with little real power--although he could earn the role of an outsized player like Snowe and Collins, and he might be thinking just that.  But even so, it's 6 years as a junior Senator, when his wife wants to be in Florida, and opportunity for any leisure late in life is slipping away.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:28:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree

A Republican pollster who's shown some questionable polls that seem to always favor Republicans has shown a poll in which a former one term Lt. Governor, two term Governor, and sixteen year Congressman, who is regarded as one of the few moderate Republicans, and as the political winds at his back (at least for now) is only barely outside the the margin of error.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 20:08:15 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah

I officially stopped worrying about DE-Sen today.

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by: skaje @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 20:54:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I doubt we'll actually see a Castle vs. Biden race, though.

One or the other will run, but not both.

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:43:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Still don't quite understand why Castle would be

waiting for Biden to make the first move.

Seems to be implying this:
If it's a competitive race where Castle would actually have to do some hard campaigning (against Biden), he'd pass on being a Senator?
Whereas if it's an easy cakewalk race where he doesn't have to campaign hard (with no Biden), he'd be willing to be a Senator.

That's would be reminiscent of that Kentucky guy: I do not need the U.S. Senate.

(I'm assuming that he isn't interested in reelection to the House anymore)

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by: homerun @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:51:05 PM UTC

Makes perfect sense

Nice way to cap his career in a easy race but at his age a tough race versus the VP's son isn't worth the bother.

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 19:56:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm

If I can have the job handed to me on a silver platter I'll take it, otherwise to hell with it.

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by: homerun @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 22:41:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lisa Madigan, Mark Kirk...

that seems to be the flavor of the year... I'll run if I don't have to work too hard for it.

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by: tommypaine @ Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 23:34:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

In Castle's case,

he's getting on in years and considering retirement.  Compared to those other guys, who are a lot younger.

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by: SC @ Sat Oct 03, 2009 at 20:51:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mark Kirk's math is different, he can't NOT work hard but...

...he'd be chasing windmills to challenge Madigan, which is why he waited for her to decide.

He still has to work hard against anyone else and still likely will lose to Alexi...and likely by 10 points or more.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 02:57:33 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kirk's hissy fit

I think the comment in question was referring more to the almighty tantrum he threw over someone like Andy McKenna having the audacity to challenge him in a primary. Sure, I can see the obvious allure of coasting towards election/the general election race, but if you're as good a candidate as you're made out to be with enough upsides that you're able to rid yourself of any challengers just by shouting loud enough then you should be able to dispatch aforementioned challenger legitimately.

It's quite unbecoming.

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by: RedefiningForm @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 13:06:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's a game of chicken.

If Castle announces first, Biden runs for re-election. If Biden announces first, Castle retires.

Isn't the rumor that Tom Carper may not run for re-election in 2012? In that case, perhaps Biden will run then.  

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by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 01:42:26 AM UTC

If that were really the case,

Castle would have announced ages ago. It doesn't seem like they're falling over each other to announce first.

My guess is that Beau Biden doesn't want to make it seem like he came home from Iraq and immediately started running for Senate. However, I expect him to announce in the somewhat-near future (certainly before Christmas, likely before Thanksgiving, and perhaps before Halloween). I would also surmise that Castle decided awhile ago that he was retiring and is just figuring out the best way to let the NRSC down easy. I almost expect Castle to announce that he's not running before Beau announces that he is running, so it doesn't look like Castle is scared of him (which may or may not be true).

Having said this, watch Castle announce on Monday that he's running. :-P

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by: Politik @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 02:50:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Castle has personal reasons for waiting unrelated to Biden......

Castle openly says his wife wants him to hang it up and have them retire to Florida.  And he makes clear that's appealing to him, too.

But he also is a lifelong political animal who thinks he might still be able to accomplish something more.

So he's torn.

And that's all unrelated to Biden, whose presence or absence is a separate and also very important factor to Castle.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 02:59:59 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Biden doesn't run

I can't see any reason for any Democrat to ever vote for him again for anything.

The whole Delaware placeholder thing would become the dumbest, most douchiest thing of the cycle.

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by: tommypaine @ Sun Oct 04, 2009 at 22:15:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carper won't retire in 2012

He's still in good health, and I imagine he'd want more time in the Senate than just two terms.  Plus, he's a kingmaker in Delaware politics and is a leading voice in the DLC - hardly someone who has any motivation to leave.  Full disclosure, I did direct mail in Delaware for the 2008 cycle, and there was no one I talked to there who seemed to think Carper was going anywhere anytime soon.  The assumption was that Beau would eventually take his dad's seat, but prior to Joe's elevation to VP the prevailing wisdom was that he would serve one more term until 2014, which would neatly dovetail with Beau finishing out his second term as AG and running for the vacant seat.

I'd be shocked if Beau didn't run, but I imagine he's holding off his decision to keep the race from being a potentially distracting storyline for his dad (and by consequence the administration) until the health care battle ends.  He may even wait until January 2010 to announce.

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by: DFLer @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 20:59:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]