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NY-23: Money Where Their Mouths Are

by: James L.

Fri Oct 02, 2009 at 2:44 AM EDT


It looks like the independent expenditure war in New York's 23rd District is heating up in a big way. The Club For Growth reported a $275,000 media buy attacking Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava earlier this evening with the FEC, on top of a $15K direct mail piece in support of Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.

The party committees are also in the thick of it, too: the NRCC upped their ad buy against Owens by $35K, raising their total tab for the open seat race to just north of $150,000. The DCCC dropped another $65K on media buys earlier this week, too, bringing their total amount spent on Owens to $127K. I'd expect those buys to snowball in the coming days, as the committees try to neutralize the Club For Growth's investment.

James L. :: NY-23: Money Where Their Mouths Are
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Key: paint DeDe as a Paulite/Paultard
The Club for Growth is hoping for a "Buckley" scenario, with reference to the '70 Senate election where James Buckley on the C line beat a liberal R and D with 38% of the vote, ref

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...

With Goodell and the Democratic nominee Richard Ottinger splitting the liberal vote, Buckley won by a plurality with 38 % of the vote, and entered the Senate in January 1971.

I believe that 38% of NY-23 are willing to vote for a wingnut.

Therefore, it's important to make sure to paint DeDe as one of them in at least a few ways - and her socially liberal positions are consistent with today's followers of Ron Paul.


Ron Paul is way too obscure to make that comparison......
Ron Paul is an interesting figure only to political junkies, not to average voters.  Average voters don't care about Ron Paul, and indeed most of them don't know who Ron Paul is.  The same goes for his followers......average voters, even the more engaged ones who show up to vote in special elections like this one, don't know that this "Ron Paul fellow" even has "followers."

Don't confuse name recognition among political junkies with popular celebrity......it's not even close.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
But Dede is an economic liberal too!
The problem with that strategy is that Dede is an economic liberal too. If she had a conservative economic voting record in the NYS Assembly she probably could have avoided a Conservative Party challenger.

It's an odd race where the most liberal candidate is the Republican. In that sense it is kindo of like the Buckley race.

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I don't believe for one second
that in the House, Scozzafava would have a better voting record than Owens, especially on close votes where party pressure is more apparent.

[ Parent ]
I tend to agree with that
When it comes to economic issues anyway, social she's allowed to vote her district/conscious.  Economic issues are where we see strict unity.

But her husband is a freakin union leader!  She may be a Lincoln Chaffee in all reality and they'll just up with her.  I think they'd rather put up with having a big liberal than a Democrat.


[ Parent ]
I don't know
I think you are right on some social issues, but not all social issues are the same.  Regarding marriage equality, the GOP would not be happy at all if a freshman rep voted her conscious instead of the party line.  The GOP has made a living on family values, and marriage equality is not one of their values.

In addition, other socially conservative factions within her district would form a crusade against DeDe if she "voted her conscience".  Knowing this, if DeDe will have to make some hard decisions, and being that she's not proven on a national level, there's a good chance that she will wilt.  OTOH, she may vote her conscience, but we will never know unless it actually happens.  

I'm afraid many will be disappointed with DeDe as their Rep.  

40, male, Democrat, NC-04


[ Parent ]
AKA we will never know. Gay marriage won't come to the house floor for a long time.


[ Parent ]
Mary Matalin is married
To James Carville.

[ Parent ]
Uh, not likely
Have you seen her campaign ads? She's calling herself a fiscal conservative and is selling her campaign as a way to fight against "the big spenders in congress".

The people who think she's the "real liberal" in this race are bamboozling themselves.


[ Parent ]
In the House, I'm assuming she'd vote straight GOP party line.
The GOP whips will be twisting her arms so hard, both of her arms will be in casts soon.

[ Parent ]
Not true, she's already CALLING HERSELF...
...an economic conservative.  She's already embracing economic conservatism as part of her track record in her own first TV ad, and she needs voters to see her as an economic conservative to hold off Hoffman.  The only candidate who'll call her "liberal" is Hoffman.

And to say DeDe is more liberal than Owens is nonsense.  Party labels matter, Members vote overwhelmingly with their party once in office regardless of preconceived notions.  People like Travis Childers and Chet Edwards vote with us more often than Mark Kirk or Jim Gerlach.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10


[ Parent ]
Fortunately, Bill Owens is a self-funder,
And should be able to match and exceed the money CfG and all their friends are spending.
Isn't that the reason this non-Dem was picked by the Dem. party bosses, right?


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