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SSP Daily Digest: 10/1

by: Crisitunity

Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 1:45 PM EDT


• NH-Sen: ARG, mateys! The New Hampshire-based pollsters find that Republican AG Kelly Ayotte is keelhauling Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the Senate race, although with lots of undecideds: 41-34. This is their first look at the Ayotte/Hodes matchup. (UPDATE: Oh, come on... I just noticed that ARG also has Barack Obama's NH approval at 34/57 and even Gov. John Lynch at 37/40. So take this poll with a mighty hunk o' pirate salt.) Also today, Ayotte's primary opposition is lining up. Businessman Jim Bender says he's forming an exploratory committee, and Ovide Lamontagne is setting up a testing-the-waters 527 to raise funds.

• NV-Sen: Former state GOP chair, former one-term state Senator, former co-owner of the Sahara casino, and former Miss New Jersey 1973 Sue Lowden (and former Reid donor, back in the 1980s) is officially in the race against Harry Reid. Democrats are pointing to her close ties to John Ensign, while even tradmed pundits like Chris Cillizza are left wondering if her resume is "somewhat thin" for the task of going against Reid.

• VT-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie announced today that he will run for the Republican nomination for the open gubernatorial race in Vermont. His previous silence on the issue since Jim Douglas's retirement announcement had suggested he wasn't going to run, but now apparently he's all in. Dubie is socially conservative (at least by Vermont standards), so if he's the standard bearer (and this probably means that recent party-switching Auditor Tom Salmon, who said he wouldn't run if Dubie ran, won't run now) that may improve Dem odds at picking up the seat. Of course, Dem odds mostly turn on what the Progressive Party does.

• GA-12: Two developments in the 12th, where Rep. John Barrow is already facing two Republicans (doctor and self-proclaimed top recruit Wayne Mosely, and Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith). A third GOPer, Savannah party activist Jeanne Seaver, is also getting into the field. And on Barrow's left, former state Sen. Regina Thomas is considering another primary run. Although Blue Dog Barrow should theoretically be vulnerable to a challenge from an African-American Democrat in this almost half-black district, Thomas pulled in only 24% of the primary vote in a seemingly underfunded and underplanned challenge last year. (H/t TheUnknown285.)

• NC-11: This might be a slightly more imposing challenge to Rep. Heath Shuler than the guy who promised to serve only one term: Jeff Miller, a Hendersonville businessman who received a Presidential Citizens Medal for his work taking WWII veterans to Washington DC to see the WWII war memorial. Miller is "contemplating" the race.

• OR-05: Sad to say, it looks like we won't have Mike Erickson to make fun of again next year; the GOP found a somewhat more viable challenger to freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader. State Rep. Scott Bruun says he'll run; he says he has a "moderate middle sensibility" (which plays well in his wealthy corner of the Clackamas County suburbs, but may subject him to a primary challenge from elsewhere). Bruun ran in 1996 against Earl Blumenauer in the dark-blue 3rd and lost by a wide margin. Getting down into the weeds, his departure also opens up HD 37, the kind of suburban district that Democrats in the state legislature have been vacuuming up in the last few cycles.

• PA-04: Disregard what I said yesterday; don't quite count out state House minority whip Mike Turzai yet. Despite the entry of lawyer Keith Rothfus to the GOP field yesterday, Turzai notified the media that he's still considering a run against Rep. Jason Altmire, but is currently preoccupied by the budget stalemate in Harrisburg and will decide later.
Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 10/1
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SSP Daily Digest: 10/1 | 67 comments
Something for the worrywarts
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...

Republicans are in a LOUSY position to capitalize on Democratic stumbles and troubles.

Hrm, about NH-Sen...
...I feel like the race is either a tie or a slight Ayotte lead at this point. I doubt she's quite up in the high single-digits, but nevertheless, she's probably benefitting from Team Hodes being completely lifeless (at this point). That being said...I suspect this one could be a real barn-burner, and I imagine if Hodes can run a halfway decent campaign, he'll probably pull it off. It's very competitive though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Ayotte lead
Although, honestly, it sounds like it's only about 70-30 for Ayotte to make it out of the primaries at this point. Ayotte couldn't come off as more of a RINO if she stuck a horn on her forehead, and if she starts making culture war noise about abortion, Hodes is going to burn her to the waterline. (Arrr!)
[ Parent ]
DE:Sen
I may be wrong but I don't think these numbers will encourage Castle to run too much.

http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Agreed
It's probably encouraging to Christine O'Donnell that she keeps Beau Biden below 50% though.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
[ Parent ]
Indeed
I doubt if he has the energy to run a race race--which is what that would be.

Funny random point: Mittens is running PAC ads now. (Just saw one at Ras).

[ Parent ]
Erm, *real* race

[ Parent ]
Just noticed something interesting
Stu Rothenberg came out with a bunch of revisions to his 2010 House predictions a week ago, and he has changed his take on Mike Castle's seat in Delaware from safe Republican to Likely Democrat.  Does he know something that the rest of us don't?

68, Dem-leaning indie, MI-8
[ Parent ]
Castle is definitely retiring
whether he runs for Senate or not is still a question
[ Parent ]
Wayne Mosley
He called himself "a top recruit"?  That's hilarious considering this has come out.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
Rasmussen has Obama's approval at 50/50
http://www.rasmussenreports.co...

Yesterday, it was 49/51. Let me say again that I LOVE that there are no undecideds. It really lends credibility to the numbers. /snark

CONGRATULATIONS TO BRIAN DUBIE ON HIS DECISION TO RUN FOR GOVERNOR OF VERMONT 2010!
CONGRATULATIONS TO BRIAN DUBIE ON HIS DECISION TO RUN FOR GOVERNOR OF VERMONT 2010,
BUT...
I hereby announce that I am running against him.

I have been on the official election ballot for Governor of Vermont 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008
and I will be on the official election ballot
for Governor of Vermont 2010.

Why?  If I think Lt. Governor Brian Dubie is such a wonderful candidate for Governor 2010,
then WHY? am I running against him?

I'll tell you why!

He won't do anything to help MAKE MARIJUANA LEGAL!

I WILL!
THE GOVERNOR CAN GRANT PARDONS, FOR ONE THING.

Now, I want to make some suggestions to the Vermont Republican Party, a bunch of insincere arrogant creeps from my poor perspective.

#1 If the Republican Party of Vermont keeps behaving in a demeaning, insulting manner to poor people in Vermont, hey, guess what?  you won't get poor peoples' votes!

#2 If the Republican Party of Vermont keeps behaving in a demeaning and insulting manner to disabled people, hey, again, and I know there are starving horses in Vermont who need that hAy,
you won't get their votes.

#3 Guess what?  The Democrats are even MORE GUILTY than the Republicans of insulting and demeaning behaviour towards poor and disabled people, so, guess what again,
THE REPUBLICANS CAN WIN IF THEY CHANGE THEIR WAYS!

#4 Despite the fact that 1% of Vermonters are Jewish and there are other religious groups in Vermont, like Muslims, many Vermonters are Christian.  So, regardless of any particular candidates religion, each candidate should memorize this New Testament Bible quotation:

St. James the Apostle
Chapter 2
Impartiality
But you have dishonored the poor man.
Do not the rich use their power to oppress you,
and do they not drag you before judgment-seats?
Do they not blaspheme the good name by which you are called?
If, however, you fulfill the royal law, according to the Scriptures,
"Thou shalt love thy neighbor as thyself," you do well.
But IF YOU SHOW PARTIALITY TOWARDS PERSONS, YOU COMMIT SIN.

THAT'S THE BOTTOM LINE.
THE DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS ARE SINNERS
BECAUSE THEY CONSPIRE
TO EXCLUDE OTHER CANDIDATEs
WHO ARE ON THE OFFICIAL ELECTION BALLOT
FROM DEBATES AND FORUMS.

FOR EVERY SINGLE DEBATE AND FORM FOR WHICH
I AM EXCLUDED FROM,
AND I HAVE A LOT OF EXPERIENCE
2002, 2004, 2006, 2008
OF BEING EXCLUDED,
YOU WILL NEVER
HEAR THE END OF IT.

IF MEGA MILLION DOLLAR POLITICAL CAMPAIGNS
WERE CONSIDERED THE BUSINESS
THAT THEY REALLY ARE,
BUSINESS OF AND BY AND FOR CORPORATIONS
THROUGH THEIR PACS,
THEN EXCLUDING ANY CANDIDATE
FROM ANY DEBATE OR FORUM
WOULD BE AN
ILLEGAL
ANTI-TRUST
VIOLATION.

MS. CRIS ERICSON
879 CHURCH STREET
CHESTER, VERMONT 05143-9375
(802)875-4038
HTTP://CRISERICSON.COM

oh, and keeping this all friendly,
I do think it is really nice for our Vermont baby Eagle,
Brian Dubie, to take a flying leap out of his nest and soar higher.

MAKE MARIJUANA LEGAL!
http://makemarijuanalegal.com

Wat?


26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
She's a perennial candidate here in Vermont
She runs on marijuana legalisation and gets some votes.

When she has been invited to participate in candidate debates, her statements are pretty much on par with what she wrote above -- draw your own conclusions.  

[ Parent ]
In Vermont, it isn't about the Progressives
The assessment that in the Vermont gubernatorial race "...Dem odds mostly turn on what the Progressive Party does" misses the reality of Vermont politics.

While there is no question that the Progressive Party here makes for a more complicated electoral calculus than in other states, it is a mistake to assume that the Progressives hold the fate of the Democratic candidate in their hands.

It is highly unlikely the Progressive Party will run a high profile nominee for Governor in 2010 -- past nominee Anthony Pollina seems very likely to run for the state Senate rather than another statewide run. State legislator David Zuckerman says he will either run for Lt Gov or state Senate. No other prominent Progressive is being rumoured as a candidate at this point, and Progressive party leadership have made it very clear they have no strong desire to field a gubernatorial candidate. They have been meeting with Democratic candidates and seem very open to some kind of fusion approach to 2010.

In only one case has a statewide Democratic candidate has ever lost a race to a Republican because of a Progressive candidate. (That was in 2002, when Brian Dubie was first elected Lt Governor with 41% of the vote, with Democrat Peter Shumlin getting 32% and Progressive Anthony Pollina winning 25%).

Even in his first election in 2002 when Douglas won with 45% to 42% for former Lt Governor Doug Racine, the major third candidate in the race (10%) was independent Conrad Hogan, a former Republican cabinet secretary and businessman, not a Progressive. The Progressive nominee took only  0.6% of the vote.  The Republican Douglas won largely as voters were tired of Howard Dean's long time in office and the well-known Douglas seemed like a moderate non-ideological change.

After his first election, Republican Governor Jim Douglas won with a majority of the vote, whether it was one-on-one against a Democrat or with a Progressive candidate in the race.

In 2004 and 2006, there was no Progressive nominee.  In 2004 the Democratic nominee was the Progressive mayor of Burlington, who could only manage 38% of the total vote in a very Democratic year.   In 2008 the Progressive candidate Anthony Pollina (21.8%)  barely edged  the weak Democratic nominee (21.7%) , but Douglas still received more than 53%

Democratic odds of picking up the Vermont Governor's seat in 2010 depends on 2 things:

1.) Successfully building Brian Dubie's negatives early on in the campaign. This means painting Brian Dubie in voter's minds as right wing and out of the mainstream of Vermont's left of centre ethos. He will do everything he can to sound like an non-ideological, non-partisan consensus-builder -while the reality is that he is quite right wing for a statewide office holder in Vermont.

Similarly, it will be import to question his record as Lt Gov, where he has been a part-time office holder with no significant accomplishments. (His most high profile activity was a petition drive for a "Megan's Law" in Vermont following a horrific sex crime and murder of a young girl - a definite example of him jumping to the front of a parade and claiming to be the leader). His other job (as a commercial airline pilot) has meant he spends half of his time out of state, and he was very actively and visibly job hunting out of state a year ago).

The challenge on driving up his negatives will come because of a contested Democratic primary, meaning that the party and prominent Democrats not running for Governor will have to take the lead on developing these story lines on Dubie. (Complicated even more by the fact that overt negative campaigns have a history of back-firing in Vermont, requiring a well-tuned message).

2.) The Democrats need to make sure their primary doesn't become too divisive. The primary won't take place until September 2010, so there won't be much time to mend fences afterward.

Right now there are 3 announced candidates - the front-runners being Secretary of State Deb Markowitz and State Senator (former Lt Governor) Doug Racine, with State Senator Susan Bartlett also running. But the field is likely to become more crowded, with State Senate President Peter Shumlin probably jumping in, as well as possible candidacies by former state Senator Matt Dunne, State Treasurer Jeb Spaulding, and other possible candidates. All of the candidates bring different strengths in terms of campaign skills, name recognition, geographic base, etc. (Interestingly, both Shumlin and Dunne have previously lost races to Dubie for Lt Governor, while Racine defeated him for the post in 2000).

Obviously a 5 or 6 way late primary could make party unity a challenge for the general election campaign - although highly negative campaigns generally don't do well in Vermont and the candidates will probably try not to go too overtly negative on each other.

The Democrats' chances in 2010 in Vermont depend entirely on what we do, not on the Progressive Party's actions.


a few other things
if Dubie makes the argument that he's for divided government (stopping "teh libral democrat agenda") he could get a lot of the ticket splitters.  

As for the primary, i expect at least one of the dem candidates to switch to the lt gov race.  if it's markowitz, then it would practically free up the nomination for Racine.  it seems unlikely racine would abandon his quest for the gov nom just to get his old job back, which was a part time gig anyway.  

there's also the possibility that 2006 lt gov nom matt dunne will run for governor, which considering his age, and that he lost a statewide race in 2006, would be a horrible idea.

http://www.wcax.com/Global/sto...

As for Pollina, unless anyone's heard something different lately, Pollina is probably statewide or nothing.  on an interview with Marselis Parsons back in 2008, parsons asked pollina why he didn't run for state senate and he acted like it was beneath him.  

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
Markowitz won't back away from the primary
She isn't going to run for Lt Gov -- she outraised Racine last quarter (haven't seen numbers for the one that just ended), and she is in the race to say. And, as you said, there is no way way that Racine would drop down.

At the moment, Racine and Markowitz are the clear frontrunners. I think Shumlin  has waited too long to get in and should stay in the Senate, where he has a lot of power. I don't think Jeb Spaulding is going to run (he earlier said he wasn't, but that was before Douglas said he wasn't running for re-election) -- but if he jumped in I think he would also be a strong contender. I personally think Racine is the strongest nominee, but any of the three would be a solid candidate.

I agree that it would be a big mistake for Matt to run for Governor -- I like him, but this would not be the right race for him (although Lt Gov might make sense). It would probably also make sense for Bartlett to drop to Lt Gov - I'm really puzzled by her plans to run for Gov.

I think a lot has changed for Pollina since 2008 -- the guy has to win some election sometime if he isn't going to end up with the label of "perennial candidate". Folks I know in both the Progressive Party and the Washington County Democratic party tell me that they expect he will run for Senate there -- definitely if Phil Scott runs for higher office. None of them think he would run for Governor in 2010 -- maybe Lt Gov as part of a Dem/Prog deal, but not Gov,

[ Parent ]
One minor quibble, that turned into a lengthy comment.
It was Cornelius Hogan, not Conrad Hogan. Not intuitive because he went by "Con", which he probably should've realized is a horrible nickname for a politician. Not surprised he never tried again after that one time.

Also, Pollina wouldn't have cracked 15% in 2002 or 2008 if the Dems hadn't nominated such horrible candidates. Many of Shumlin's wounds and nearly all of Symington's were self inflicted. Much as I dislike him, Pollina was merely exploiting the resulting vacuum, and I can't entirely blame him for that. Still, I hope he never runs for anything ever again.

Anyway, I agree with you on the basic premise. The problems are that Dubie is way popular for appearing nonpartisan and the Dems might clobber each other in the primary and let him sneak through. Once again, though, that depends on the Dems not being politically correct when they hit Dubie's record, which somehow I doubt Vermont Democrats are capable of if past performance is any indication. (No wonder all of our best talent goes Federal.)

The Dems' best hope is for Racine to win the primary. Dubie will win the Northeast Kingdom, Rutland, Franklin, and Orange counties easily unless he completely implodes. Dems need to be able to blunt him in his home turf of the Chittenden County suburbs. As a guy representing those suburbs in the State Senate, Racine can do that; Markowitz probably can't. (I'm not even counting Bartlett; if she somehow wins the primary, it's Dubie in a walk.) Even with the usual high Democratic turnout in Burlington proper, Addison, Washington, Windsor and Windham, it's really going to come down to which candidate can persuade more of the Burlington suburban vote into their corner.  

[ Parent ]
You're right on Hogan's name
I used to work under him in state government when he was commissioner -- I should have remembered that.

(These days Hogan has become very active in Vermont health reform stuff as a fairly progressive advocate).

I agree with you that Racine is the strongest potential nominee -- although with the right campaign Markowitz or another Democrat could beat Dubie.

Holding a job like Lt Governor with no significant responsibilities and a low profile has meant that Dubie hasn't really faced much scrutiny of his viewpoints. Running for Governor will make it harder for Dubie to masquerade as a non-partisan centrist (even with Vermont's generally weak political media coverage, the press will definitely not let him totally weasel out of the hard questions).

I should have been clear that my analysis is that the Governorship is likely to switch to the Democrats. While Dubie is the strongest Republican candidate -- the basic political leanings of the state, Dubie's right wing views, fatigue with Jim Douglas's terms, and the pattern of switching control after one party has held the office for a while all make Democrats the favourite.  

[ Parent ]
Can anyone tell me why Tom Salmon
Thought it was a good idea to switch parties? I'm just talking logic about his political views. The state gave Obama 67% of the vote and I don't think that's an isolated example; I think we can see a 65 + percent vote total become the norm for Democrats in VT.

Not only that but he belongs to a long time family of fairly progressive Democrats. I don't really understand what he felt he had to gain politically or ideologically by such a switch.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

[ Parent ]
honestly, i don't see it either
I think it's that he'd rather be a big fish in a small pond, which is sad because he had a viable path to being governor SOMEDAY.  had he remained a dem, he could have run for sec of state, lite gov, possibly treasurer if spaulding wants to be sec of state/lite gov.  basically, 2008 is going to be a massive reshuffling of the political cards).  vermont's a state that's been constipated for a long time with so many people wanting to move up, but also wanting a clear shot.  sec of state markowitz, lite gov dubie, possibly spaulding, maybe Chittenden County (Burlington, Williston, South Burlington) prosecutor TJ Donovan

http://www.wcax.com/Global/sto...

my guess is he doesn't think any other rep will win a statewide office, meaning he'll be the only statewide republican.  pretty small pond, and someday when a dem governor isn't doing too well he could pounce.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.

[ Parent ]
If Dubie loses and Salmon is re-elected,
Salmon becomes the kingpin of the Vermont GOP. I guess he'd rather do that than be one of a half-dozen statewide elected Dems in the state.
[ Parent ]
Ideology, ego and ambition
Salmon is much more conservative than the average Vermont Democrat, and he will actually fit right in with the Vermont Republican party (which is not as far right as the national party). His father (former Governor Tom Salmon) wasn't all that progressive -- he was a fairly mainstream moderate Democrat (at a time when that was the only kind of Democrat who could get elected in Vermont).

Salmon Jr. has an outsized view of himself -- he doesn't seem to understand that he was first elected in 2006 not based on his personal strength as a candidate but simply because he was the Democratic nominee with a familiar name in a very Democratic year, riding the coattails of the GOTV efforts on behalf of Bernie Sanders and Peter Welch.  He seemed to forget that he only won his upset ouster of the Republican incumbent with 44% of the vote, by a narrow 102 votes after a recount of the election night results that showed him losing by 137. (BTW, the Democratic party went all out for him, expending considerable money and human resources on the recount effort).

In 2008 he won re-election basically without opposition -- he was serving in Iraq at the time, so no one serious ran against him. He had both the Democratic and Republican nominations and took 84% of the vote against 2 third party candidates. Because he was away for more than a year on his National Guard deployment, he hadn't had any role in public debates or any record in the office - his service in the Guard was all that anyone knew about him.

Salmon's ego took a beating in the past year. He came back from Iraq and almost immediately he attempted to become a player in the budget battles between the Governor and the Legislature. He unilaterally made a public offer to "mediate" between the 2 sides -- a move that was viewed as self-serving and meddling by most in the state. He made naive and ill-informed public statements on a number of contentious issues. He began siding with the Governor on budget issues -- including attacks on the state employees union and demanding massive layoffs, arguing for cutbacks in public services and benefits, proposing a 40% cut in unemployment benefits, etc.

Through all of this, Salmon developed a reputation in Montpelier among political folks and reporters as a lightweight who desperately wanted to insert himself into the middle of important issues, but was ultimately irrelevant. Democratic legislators, in particular, resented his unwillingness to work with them and his efforts to undermine them by siding with the Governor in budget matters. (The legislature ultimately ended up overriding the Governor's veto of the state budget - the first time ever in Vermont history.)

Salmon was pissed that he didn't succeed in becoming a player in the contentious budget issues, and he blamed the Democratic legislative leadership. He realized that he had alienated much of the Democratic base -- party activists, unions, low income advocates, elected officials. Because of this, he knew that his ambition to move up quickly to Governor would be impossible in the Democratic party -- he had burned all of those bridges.

So in a fit of pique, he decided that he would jump parties. He made the choice between having no immediate openings for his ambitions as a Democrat and becoming a big fish in the small pond of the limited talent pool of the state Republican party. He probably assumes that Dubie will lose next year, and that he (Salmon) will be re-elected -- making him the only Republican elected statewide official. (Although I think he could be vulnerable to a strong Democratic challenge next year.)

I think this whole thing will end up being a huge political miscalculation on his part and that his political career will go no where from here -- but he seems to think this was a move that made sense for him.

[ Parent ]
JESUS FUCKIN CHRIST
Is there no Democrat in Nevada that has enough spine to mount a Primary challenge against Reid?

We are going to lose this seat if he stays there, and I would really rather see him leave quite frankly, but with 55% of this state going to Obama in 2008, this is more than PA, this state needs real progressive representation.

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

Dude
Nobody would ever ever challenge a sitting party leader in the primary, and even if they did, said Party Leader would get the Party to spend money on said election (which really is a big waste).

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
It would need a self-funder
But I imagine all it would do is guarentee a Repub because the primary would be so expensive and the only thing going for Reid right now is his healthy warchest. Not happin'.
[ Parent ]
Interesting candidate announcement above
Looks like someone mispelled "dooby" and ended up here instead.
welcome to vt politics
HA HA!  doobage.

Top ten signs you're an SSPer #1: your favorite song is "Panic At Tedisco" and no one understands what you mean.
[ Parent ]
I think if you searched on
"ganja break" you'd get a lot of hits that might take you here.
[ Parent ]
As opposed
To actually taking a ganja break and taking hits!
[ Parent ]
but still ending up here
because horse race politics can be fun high!  
[ Parent ]
I thought of that, too
And we're only adding to the list of searchable terms, haha. Expect an influx of Marijuana Party posters over the next month.
[ Parent ]
We're 9th on Google
6th on Bing
7th on Yahoo!

With NJ-gov primary, IA-HD-90 and NY-20 respectively being the race responsible for the hit.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

[ Parent ]
And we're #2
on Google for "jenga break."
[ Parent ]
If it's in quotes
SSP is #1 and #2.

I'm just glad that people are coming here for the right reasons. :P

[ Parent ]
Cris Ericson is the comedy relief of Vermont politics.
She runs for maybe 3-4 offices per cycle simultaneously and always gets 2-3% of the vote. What's scary is that 2-3% of Vermont always votes for her over the legitimate candidates. (Tying with "Homer Simpson" and "school sucks")

And yes, it's all proof that a little ganja goes a long way.  

[ Parent ]
Bruun and OR-5
Scott would have been a great candidate in 2008, he's an old school fairly moderate R.  However, not only is he now not likely to make the R base happy (OR 5 has a lot of the crazies in the state) but Schrader is popular.  I think Kurt will still win this by 5-10% and we may well pick up Bruun's state house seat, which we narrowly lost in 2008.
Ah, OR-05.
Part of me wants them to chop up OR-05 in redistricting to make room for the sixth district, but part of me loves seeing the Ayn Rand nouveau riche douchebags in the West Linn/Lake Oswego/Wilsonville corridor butting heads with the crazy fundies down south. Erickson/Mannix was the popcorn event of last cycle.

Really, Bruun should be running in OR-01. Wu is a weak incumbent and Bruun is exactly the sort of Republican that the First has a preference for. He won't get very far in the fifth, as you say, thanks to the GOP base being so volatile that it's fractured in at least two or three different directions.

[ Parent ]
OR-01
Continues to get more and more Democratic though as Portland's political views spill out and anchor its suburbs into the Democratic column.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
OR-1 is gone for the Republicans
their last good shot at that district was 2004.  
[ Parent ]
NJ-Gov
Via Teagan, third poll in row says Christie +4. Out tomorrow.

http://politicalwire.com/archi...

Hopefully means Corzine finally edging over 40% and the trend suggests true tossup by election day.

Actually Monouth was +3
And tied 40-40 with RV.

http://www.monmouth.edu/pollin...

Obama can win this for Corzine. He needs to for his own sake.

[ Parent ]
Think of how 2009 would be framed by the media
if Corzine or Deeds somehow win. At this point, we'd dominate in the expectations game (which seems much more important this cycle than I initially thought) if we win just one of the two, and the cycle would be called a wash. If Deeds or Corzine win, and if Scozzafava loses, too, Republicans will have to work hard to keep up their comeback narrative for the next year. Of course, regardless of the outcomes of these races, 2010 will be difficult, but a Corzine or Deeds victory would give the media a bat to beat over the head of Republicans when they start saying how sick the country is of the Democrats (I can hear Wolf Blitzer needling Eric Cantor now). Also, think of how many times the 27-2 New York congressional statistic would be repeated. How many times is the New England congresional statistic repeated still? In addition, should the Maine gay marriage ban fail, that would be one more arrow in the quiver. If nothing else, this would force the Republicans to spend more energy convincing the media of their "comeback" narrative.
[ Parent ]
On the flip
All four going conservative is just unimaginable.
[ Parent ]
Unimaginable as in...
...you don't think that it'll happen, or unimaginably horrible if it does?

I'm at least placing better than even money on Prop. 1 failing. I don't know about the other stuff, but Obama and Corzine are definitely heading in the right direction. Deeds seems to be, too. I still don't see a victory in both states, but winning one suddenly seems that much more likely.

[ Parent ]
Both

[ Parent ]
Democrats pretty much have to win one of them
In order to kill the meme of a Republican comeback.  
[ Parent ]
I'd rather be prescient than overly optimistic,
but I just have a feeling that one of our gubernatorial nominees wins. I won't say who, lest I jinx it. I really, really, really hope that I'm not just being hopeful like so many Republicans were in 2006.
[ Parent ]
Delaware
Is Mike Castle running in 2010?

Joe Cooper
Last I saw
he still hadn't made any announcement either way, but given his daydreaming about "Florida beaches" a couple of months ago and the strong D challenger for DE-AL, I think he's more likely to retire completely than he is to run for the Senate - especially if Beau Biden gets in, but probably even if he doesn't. Bowers called this race for the Repubs way too prematurely.  
[ Parent ]
Seriously
Bowers thinks Castle wins whatever? Wow, nonsense.
[ Parent ]
Bowers is just running a poll average
He's given up on trying to outsmart the poll averages.  He sees himself as a competitor to RCP and Pollster rather than Cook or Rothenberg.

Based on the poll averages, which have Castle beating Biden by double digits, his call makes sense.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

[ Parent ]
Oh he did that last year
Wrote off Kay Hagan in September because of his averages.
[ Parent ]
Either senate or nothing
Is consensus. No announcements yet.
[ Parent ]
any word on when Beau Biden could announce?
i heard he's back from iraq now
[ Parent ]
No idea
But I'm guessing that is what Castle is waiting for.
[ Parent ]
GA - 12 Barrow is safe
Regina Thomas was a joke of a candidate although she was well positioned. Barrow big Obama supporter
"Barrow big Obama supporter"
In the primary, yes, when he needed to derail the predicted primary challenge from a black candidate.  After that, he showed his true colors.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'd disagree, but regardless
The district is a lot more conservative than its numbers suggest. Its a hardass district for a Democrat to win with low black turnout in off years. The white turnout in the wealthy 90% Republican suburbs does not drop and that makes it a challenge for a Democrat to even win Chatham county. Very polarized and difficult.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Black turnout in 2006 was abysmally low.
That doesn't mean it's going to be again.  Remember there was a Democrat on the top of the ballot who alienated a lot of black support.  Barnes won Chatham by the same margin as Obama in both 1998 and 2002.  I seriously doubt he (or any other Democratic gubernatorial candidate would be the drag Mark Taylor was).

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Still, give me that black turnout
Will drop at least 25% percent more than white turnout in the off election, (2006 was a bad year, with nearly 50% drop that almost gave us back a nutcase like Max Burns), and Barnes won about twice as many white voters than Obama and survived on lower black turnouts. Obama drove record numbers to the polls, including hundreds of thousands in Georgia who probably voted for the first times in their lives only to vote for the first black President. There won't be that kind of turnout for a regular off year congressional election regardless, regardless we'll be lucky if only declines 25% more than the white vote declines. Take that into account and in off years its still a 50/50 district, with that Republican 50% a hard bit to peel off, mostly white, hard core conservatives. Jim Barrow is a good fit for the district the way it is now and Democrats need to keep him because Republicans are likely to take another shot at this district in 2012, possibly even more radically.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
John Barrow needs to go immediately.
He is not a good fit for that district.  His entire problem has been HIS inability to connect with black voters.  He's not going to win over Republicans, who are still saying he's a far-lefty, but he's going to alienate the people he needs.  

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, he won 2:1
over a Prominent inner City black State senator in a Democratic Primary that is about 75% black. I'd say he has pretty good support among the black community.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
After he wrapped his arm firmly around Obama's waist in the primary.


Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
Perhaps,
I think you understimate the liberality of black voters. The truth is most of the voters are low information party line voters, therefore he does not have to worry about alienating them in the general and therefore can focusing in trying to peel off enough of the conservative to pull in 52% in tough off year challenges.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus
[ Parent ]
Thing is: he's not being quiet about it.
It's not like his recalcitrance on healthcare is going unreported.  It's not like his votes against climate change legislation (take a look at the district on the map and tell me what was up with that) is going to go unnoticed.  And if there is a primary challenger who can raise some money and/or some 527s getting involved, those low information voters are going to learn about Barrow's doings.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.
[ Parent ]
More GA-12 news: Barrow's top Republican challenger drops out
http://savannahnow.com/news/20...

Barrow's been drawing weak Republican challenges, several of who end up dropping out.  Can we please get a strong primary challenge to this guy?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

SSP Daily Digest: 10/1 | 67 comments

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