Siena (pdf) (9/27-29, likely voters):
Bill Owens (D): 28
Dede Scozzafava (R): 35
Doug Hoffman (C): 16
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Siena is the first public pollster to look at the confusing three-way race in NY-23, and they find that Dede Scozzafava, the moderate GOP Assemblywoman, has the edge — but it’s certainly not an imposing lead. And with her better known than her two unknown opponents, her opponents may have more room to grow. Scozzafava’s favorables are 33/20 with 47% with no opinion, while Owens is at 23-12 (64% undecided) and Hoffman is at 16-13 (71% undecided).
Siena helpfully provides geographic crosstabs. Scozzafava has the biggest edge in the western North Country (Jefferson, Lewis, and St. Lawrence Counties), 53-23-10. (Not coincidentally, that’s Dede’s Assembly district.) Owens has a big edge in the less chilly Madison, Oswego, and Oneida Counties, closer in to Syracuse (30-20-20). Strangely, Owens has only a small lead in what should be his best area, the eastern North Country (Clinton, Essex, Franklin, Fulton and Hamilton) — 32-31-18 — as he’s best known for his work to redevelop the BRAC’d former Air Force base at Plattsburgh. If he consolidates his hometown support, he’d be right in the thick of things. (Discussion already underway in conspiracy‘s diary.)
RaceTracker: NY-23
made an error this morning and had her at 53% what a relief!! This race is definatly winnable!
with the notion that it is their way or the highway. If Hoffman weren’t in this race, Scozzafava would win this thing hands down.
That was also Obama’s best area so I suspect it accounts for much of the 20% of undecided Dems. Also encouraging that Owens does best where there are most undecideds in total (Central).
before this is all over. Even if she wins, Dede will probably be primaried every cycle unless she moves far right. It’s really a no-win for her at the moment.
Yes, this will be a barnburner, and no, Hoffman doesn’t have a real shot in hell (if he’s super-lucky, he’ll break 20%), but if Scozzafava’s winning 30% of Dems, Owens has a serious problem at hand. Odds are, they split Indies 50/50 (or, 35/35/20 with Hoffman), but this race isn’t really about them…it’s about conservative Dems who appear to be breaking heavily for the Republican.
As I noted in conspiracy’s thread,
this will be the first time in the lifetime of most NY-23 voters that a D has a serious shot at winning.
So since there has never been a real race in NY-23 (and predecessors) at least for 50 years or more, most of the electorate never paid attention to the D candidate.
So now that they’re being presented with a real choice, it’s hard to predict how these voters will break.
between the top 2 finishers that we’ll be waiting weeks for every last overseas ballot to trickle in to determine who won.
Then just like in back in April in NY-20, have lawyers challenging ballots, a court fight, etc.
bet you didn’t see that coming
http://www.dailykos.com/story/…
Well, he was a Republican at one time.
but I have come around to supporting an Owens victory, as a Scozzafava loss would have more of a meaningful impact as a crush to Republican morale, whereas a victory would simply add one LGBT Republican who may very well get redistricted out of a seat after her first full term. This has been a difficult decision, as I strongly believe that electing pro-equality Republicans will better prevent blow-back when SCOTUS eventually legalizes gay marriage.
If Corzine, Deeds and Owens all lose, which could certainly happen, then Obama’s honeymoon is over. The GOP will be imboldened and Health Care will be pronounced either dead or whatever passed will be targeted for repeal or major revision.
The 2010 races begin for real on 11/4. Do you really want to give the GOP a big boost, just as the 2010 races are becoming the sole political focus?
Don’t kid yourselves.
For all intents and purposes, the Reagan Revolution ended after the 1982 elections. Do you want the same thing to happen to Obama?