Crosstabs

here.

Obama is popular in the district.

I really have difficulty caring so much about this race.

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:22:31 PM UTC

At a minimum if Owens can win

It will offset somewhat the bad publicity if Corzine or Deeds cannot.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:26:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe--I doubt it

Winning in Maine would probably help on that front, though.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:30:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The news spins

If Scozzafava wins, the spin will be "Democrats can no longer pick up swing seats...impending doom in 2010"

If Owens wins, the spin will be "Hmm, gee, even in a bad political environment for Democrats, Republicans still can't hold on to their own seats"

Reason enough for me.  

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:34:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, the alternative

is the headline "liberal Republican barely wins Republican district." I would actually expect that result to piss off the Republican base.

Honestly, I don't think any outcome in this district points in one direction or another, expect at the most superficial level.

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:37:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NRCC wants Scozzafazza to win.

Reason enough for me to want Owens.  He's one more guy the NRCC will have to beat before they can go after some of our better members.  

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by: JeremiahTheMessiah @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:41:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Shrug

The NRCC has two jobs: protect Republican incumbents and elect new Republicans.

I'm not saying I wouldn't vote for Owens if I lived in the district, but. . .

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:44:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's definately an odd race

To some extent Scozzafava is to the left of Owens.  I'm not sure how I would vote if I lived in the district.  If there were no political parties, I'd probably go with Scozzafava, but since I'd be loath to give John Boehner another vote, I might consider Owens.

28, Unenrolled, MA-08

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by: Marcus @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:48:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You're mistaken, the outcome matters very much.....

It's a big mistake to discount party labels.

Look independently at Travis Childers and Jim Gerlach, and you'll think Childers is more conservative.  And in a real sense, he is.  But Childers votes with us more than Gerlach.

And that's how it goes with Member after Member after Member.

Times have changed, there's not so much crossover voting anymore...there's some, but it's the least it's ever been.

And that means party labels matter a lot.

And I think even average voters who don't care about politics increasingly recognize that (it's what the David Broders of the world complain is "polarization," as if somehow a poltical party's purpose shouldn't be to bring people together who mostly think alike or share common values about politics).

Moreoever, as I posted in another comment here, an Owens win will force the punditry and media to revisit whether Democrats are in such dire straits for the midterms after all.  And that matters, because we need a little morale boost on our side heading into 2010.  In fact the midterms are wide open, we have no problems at all besides simple math likely costing us a few (and only a few) House seats...the current national climate is certain to change as the economy improves and the health care debate is concluded.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:54:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You don't have to lecture me

about the importance of partisanship in legislative elections. But if you want to get Democratic partisans excited about a race, at least nominate a person who's better on the issues than his opponents.

I think Owens would get my grudging, half-hearted vote, because elections matter. But most people aren't nearly as partisan as I am.

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:04:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe not as liberal either in this district

But you have a point.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:06:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I may be wrong

but I don't think such spin matters much in this case. I could easily see Scozzafava running on both the Democratic and Republican lines some day, except for the fact that the Republican Party has gotten so extreme lately. Mayor Lindsey did it in New York City.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:41:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

DTOzone is right, this special is a BIG DEAL......

It's a mistake to underestimate the importance of winning this seat.  A win here is a pickup, bigger than Scott Murphy's win earlier this year, and it causes the political media to openly question whether Democrats are as endangered next fall as they've been reporting.

In fact, the prognostications are stupid at this stage anyway because by next summer the economy will be in better shape and health care will be accomplished in some form and no longer part of the national conversation, but the punditry and media aren't displaying appropriate foresight on these points.  A Democratic win in NY-23 will help change that.

And I'm feeling very good right now about Owens' chances, to the point that if I were a betting man, I'd put all my money on Owens.  Things are shaping up perfectly for him.  Polling (this new one and also the CfG poll revealed a few days ago) shows a large percentage of base Republican voters are abandoning DeDe, and conservative organizations are going out of their way to make sure Hoffman has the resources to make himself visible.  The Republican vote will be split, and ultimately the Democratic vote will stick with Owens who has run a great early campaign...his ads are just right, and he's creating a positive public image for himself.  I read also that the NRCC's two attack ads, trying to tie Owens to Pelosi on TV and to both Pelosi and Obama on radio, really rubbed Scozzafava's people the wrong way because they're not viewed as effective.  I think that's right.  Owens is a blank slate, there's no foundation for coming out and saying "a vote for him is a vote for Pelosi."  Republicans have to establish Owens' ideological/policy negatives in his own right before they can use something like a Pelosi tie--which, in any case, has never worked.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:46:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

agreed

the VA and NJ gov races are significant (at the national level) mostly because their outcomes are thought to be predictors of how willing people are to vote for Democrats in the House and Senate races.  So even if Deeds and Corzine lose, an Owens win would provide better evidence that voters don't want to punish congressional democrats.

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by: bennytoothpick @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:56:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

benny is right, a mixed result means...

...nothing can be generalized about the results.  And that's our goal, for a mixed outcome whose results can't be generalized.

Actually, our goal is to win all 3.  But the odds are long on that, we're more likely to lose 'em all than win 'em all.  But a mixed result is more likely than not, in my view.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:03:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably two early

But 2-1 to Dems is possible. Though I'd probably take 2-1 to Repubs if offered.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:09:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too early

I'm getting worse not better!

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:10:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dem support for Owens is still pretty anemic

What I wonder is whether Scozzafava is peeling off conservative Democrats, or liberals who are unhappy with Owens' position on issues like health care.  

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:47:54 PM UTC

The other way to look at it is

People don't know who he is and his ads will convince them he is their guy.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:54:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's true

I messed up when I was reading the crosstabs and missed the undecided section, where Dems are at 20%. This is actually looking very good for Owens, as he's about even for independents. All he needs to win now is the base.

One strange thing, though, Scozzafava has a massive lead in the 18-34 demographic. Any ideas why?

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:58:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gay marriage possibly

Repub undecideds are gonna hurt her when Hoffman and the CfG are done.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:59:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bob Bobson, the crosstabs are unreliable......

One thing to remember in polling is that subsamples always have high margins of error, and particularly small subsamples have margins of error too high to have any reliability at all.  An 18-34 demographic in a House race poll like this fits that description, i.e., a completely unreliable result.  So don't read anything into it.  That doesn't mean the poll is "wrong," it just means you can't conclude anything either way.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:01:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

conspiracy is correct, it's all name recognition......

Owens has never run for anything in his life, and no one has ever heard of him.  Even a lot of base Democrats are hesitant to commit before they know anything about him.  Remember that most people, even many partisan voters, don't care that much about politics, and they're not making any effort to learn about the candidates at this stage.  Indeed, most voters in the district still don't know their Congressional district is having an election on November 3rd!  So Owens's ads, and the fact of his having resources to get them on the air, are everything right now.

Hell, even as a rabid campaign junkie and diehard Democrat, I don't know who's running against Frank Wolf in my district, VA-10, next year, and I imagine it will be a no-name challenger.  And if that's the case, if someone called me out of the blue to poll the race before I had a chance to Google the guy's name, I might very well say "undecided" on the trial heat question.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:59:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

...

Owens has never run for anything in his life, and no one has ever heard of him.  Even a lot of base Democrats are hesitant to commit before they know anything about him.  Remember that most people, even many partisan voters, don't care that much about politics, and they're not making any effort to learn about the candidates at this stage.  Indeed, most voters in the district still don't know their Congressional district is having an election on November 3rd!

Sounds eerily similar to Scott Murphy...

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28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)

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by: californianintexas @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:59:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Look at the more likely/less likely

to support each candidate based on television/radio adds. Owens' spread is 32-7. Scozzafova is at 13-16. Hoffman is at 12-11.

Good work on Owens' PR campaign, at least.  

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by: sulthernao @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 17:23:59 PM UTC

Yup

Good ads they are. And some evidence to support Hoffman and CfG ads hurting her.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 17:36:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Club for Growth helping in more ways than one

http://voices.washingtonpost.c...

Can't hurt in bringing Dems over to Owens.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:11:40 PM UTC

Multi-candidate races are hilarious in a lot of ways

Republican consultant John Brabender gave a funny description of them a few years ago that I can't find on Google right now. Bottom line: going negative is more complicated.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:24:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Amusingly

The Scorecard at Politico points out that this ad is virtually identical to one the CfG used in Maryland last year.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/...

Independent Socialist & Chair of SSP Cranky Indianian Hoosier Caucus, IN-09

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by: Bob Bobson @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:34:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

They have a decent record in primaries

Not so much against Democrats. One is linked to the other...

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:37:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah, Dems are so incompetent in PA

This could end up being a really volatile race.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 19:02:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops, strike everything after "Yeah" in my subject line

Stupid autofill!  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 19:03:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For years, D's ran "nobodies" in NY-23

And they never stood a chance - the best shot was back about in '82 ? (Google isn't even helping much here), when former Lt. Gov Mary Ann Krupsak ran - and lost badly.

So most of the electorate never paid attention to the D candidate. This will be the first congressional election in the lifetime of most NY-23 voters that the D has a real chance to win.

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by: tietack @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 20:39:38 PM UTC

Does New York have runoffs?

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 15:28:06 PM UTC

No

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by: conspiracy @ Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 17:50:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]