I've taken a default position of

taking 7% away from the Republican in Rasmussen polls to get a "real" poll.  I'm calling it the Rasmussen Shift.  So this one is 44-42 McDonnell.  Way to close the gap Deeds!

I am waiting for at least one or two more polls for a trend here.  Both SUSA and Rasmussen, though both good on election eve, have a history of wild outliers in their polls coming significantly before election time.

34, WM, Democrat, FL-11

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by: spiderdem @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 18:31:42 PM UTC

My recommendation is to trust the Washington Post polls......

WaPo does the best polls for Virginia and Maryland.  I've grown to really trust them for the local/regional stuff.  I don't think their national polls are as good, but they do the state-level stuff in our region real well.  So I take to the bank the 51-47 numbers from last time.

But the downside is their polling is expensive, so they do only one a month, and we won't see another WaPo poll likely until late October.  And that will be their last one.

Deeds still has a lot of messaging and field work to do to get over the hump.  Whatever polls are "right" or "wrong," they all agree that he's still losing.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 18:39:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rassmussen

Appears to use a very aggressive and a little funky likely voter screen.  I think this is causing what you call the Rassussen shift.  His last poll or last two polls before the election are usually pretty good because the likely voter screen works very close to an election.  That is what seems to be happening to me anyway.  Guess we will know before too long.

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by: Johnny C @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 19:21:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

My default Rasmussen is five for national

And three for state. I told ya'll he was just being a tease with the previous poll.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 14:01:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't know what to think of this one......

I don't believe for one second the race has been as volatile as Rasmussen's last three polls say it's been.  Either the previous Rasmussen poll was an outlier, or this one is.

The big thing this Rasmussen poll shows is Deeds in the high 20s with white voters and with independents.  If that were true, then Deeds would, indeed, be down by a big margin, as he needs about 40% of the white vote and maybe roughly the same share of independents to win.

I suspect Rasmussen's previous poll was unrealistically optimistic, and this one unrealistically pessimistic.  I tend to think it's a mid-single-digit race and likely will stay that way.

Political Wire speculates that the Rasmussen poll shift reflects Deeds' poor post-debate media interview on transportation funding and taxes, and that video did really look bad.  But I haven't seen it pushed very hard in NoVA.  Deeds did open himself up to a tax attack in his WaPo op-ed later by explicitly supporting a tax hike for transportation, but I doubt that would hurt him this much this quickly, as I don't think the electorate is so hostile to taxes for fixing transportation problems that they really do want fixed--I figured it might hurt Deeds a little, but less so than refusing to address the matter at all, as was his previous tack.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 18:36:00 PM UTC

Amazing what defending

Your position against birth control and slipping out an F-Bomb during a Q and A on a radio show will do for you.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 20:19:33 PM UTC

hole in the Post poll

Does anyone think there were only two percent undecided?

As for griping that SUSA and Rassmussen have wild outliers, hell, everyone does. been a volatile electorate generally since late 2005. and, since all any poll is a snapshot in time, there are going to be wild swings.

Anyone remember McCain in March and August?

Comparing a poll weeks out to actual results is a waste of time. A poll shows you where you are, not where you going to wind up.

this is particularly marked in robos since they crank out so many one-nighters. never trust a one-nighter. heck, TV viewing patterns can skew results like mad.

Anyway, Deeds has lost mo. Between the transportation screw-ups and Wilder kicking, he stalled his rise. Banked too much on the thesis and the question is if he has any arrows left in the quiver.

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by: pinhickwv @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 22:02:29 PM UTC

Latest McDonnell ads are detrimental for Deeds

Do not care what you think about the specifics of the campaigns, or nit-pick the ads, BUT watching 1-minute of Deeds explain how he is "not raising general fund taxes", but is open to tax increases to pay for transporation (with the "i'm confused" look on his face, is horrible).  TOP IF OFF, he is rude and calls the reporter "young lady" (I forget all about that f-bomb thingy).

I forget all about the thesis...then the ad with the group of women blah blah on how great McDonnell is really class.  The ad war from McDonnell is actually good, the defense of the thesis has actually been what seems like a turn-on-attack back at Deeds.

Not to make this an anti-Deeds post, but as a netural observer, everything Deeds attacks McDonnell is turned back on him.  I do not agree with McDonnell on issues, but honestly Deeds is a horrible candidate.

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by: charris911 @ Sat Oct 03, 2009 at 19:45:28 PM UTC