Some Georgia news

GA-Sen: We officially have a candidate: http://www.rockdalecitizen.com...

GA-12: Barrow getting challenges left and right:
http://savannahnow.com/news/20...

http://savannahnow.com/news/20... (well that one's actually a potential challenge, but she's leaning toward it.)

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 17:22:57 PM UTC

Hadley...

I like his three "focus" points, health care, education and small buisness. All are economic, the first two are issues were the public supports Democrats by good margins and the third is a appeal to gain support from moderates. Though his political experience and therefor his name ID is absolutely zero, we'll see how well he does. Him being black is a plus in turnout, we all saw how black turnout took a nose dive in the 2008 runoff election.

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by: Hamtree @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 17:35:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thomas is not a good candidate

she won't raise money

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by: politicalal @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 22:49:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Waiting...

I'm waiting patiently for polls to show Corzine, and Deeds having leads, but time is beginning to run out for them.

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by: Hamtree @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 17:23:00 PM UTC

Agreed

If I start seeing any polling where either is AHEAD, I'll likely switch my predictions. Otherwise, I'd be pretty surprised to see either pull an upset without a leg-up anywhere in prior polling.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast

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by: andyroo312 @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 17:42:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not needed in Jersey

Though would be prteferable obviously. Look at that Q RV numbers - tie. If Corzine can do well in the debates and can get out the Democratic vote (with help from the president) he will narrowly win on election day even if the final polls show a small Christie lead. I think the trend is quite clear though - another month and they will be tied in polling at worst.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 13:55:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank God Warner is campaigning

for Deeds.  I still am wondering where the hell the guy was during the summer when the going got tough for Creigh but better late than never I guess.  Also, where's Jim Webb?  He's an extremely well-respected Democrat and would definitely help Deeds with the military crows down in Hampton Roads.  Why is he still silent on this?  I think if you're a popular politician it's your responsibility to go help out a fellow party member in your state's gubernatorial, especially ifthere would be no travel conflict with Virginia being right next to Washington.

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by: DFLer @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 17:56:13 PM UTC

Why is Webb silent?

Simple: Politicians don't stick their necks out for losers.

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by: davybaby @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:01:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually

it's more because Webb doesn't like the non-policy aspects of being a politician (raising money, retail politicking). He endorsed Leslie Byrne last year, because Leslie helped him in the primary, but overall he tends to keep to himself.

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by: Johnny Longtorso @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 11:53:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nov. 3rd: in addition to NY-23

(and VA & NJ of course) there's also the CA-10 special general election that day.
Not much suspense there, though...

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by: homerun @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 19:27:54 PM UTC

Several special elections in Georgia.

Only one is at risk for flipping, but there will be the questions of who we get in the safe races.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 19:41:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Olympia Snowe faces re-election problems if

if she opposes health insurance reform, dus to Mainers overwhelmingly support of it.

A Snowe vote against health insurance reform results in Mainers evenly divided on whether she should be re-elected

http://politicalwire.com/archi...
http://www.democracycorps.com/...

At least they apparently still have sane Republicans up in the north.

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by: homerun @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 19:45:25 PM UTC

When's she up again?

I know Collins was re-elected last year.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 20:05:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

2012

Still, good luck ousting her, this poll notwithstanding.

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by: Politik @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 20:16:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You can argue that one either way

But what I take away from the entirety of the poll is that you can put the public option in and still have pressure on Snowe (and Collins) to vote for it. It's in their best electoral interests.

BTW, the crosstabs on the marriage question really fascinate me. In addition to the usual expected categories, one factor that makes you a very likely "no" vote is if you went to college, and that's true irrespective of age. (OTOH, I was delighted to see that "no" scored 69% with those under 30).  

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by: andgarden @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 21:00:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Come on then, what is Wilder's problem

We have former Republican moderates endorsing Deeds, what is Wilder's big shitfest? He won off the support of lots of moderate rural white Dems like Deeds. I don't know why he can't be a party player.

Call no man happy until he is dead-Aeschylus

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by: ArkDem the Ragin Cajin @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 20:31:35 PM UTC

Technically, he's no longer a Democrat...

...but still, that doesn't give him license to be a prick. If he wasn't going to endorse Deeds in the end, he shouldn't have danced around the state pulling petals off a daisy as he was trying to make up his mind.

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by: Politik @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 20:55:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wilder always does this

he endorsed Robb in 1994 and Webb in 2006 in the last week before the election.  

My guess is that Wilder will do the same this year if the polls tighten to a tossup and Deeds has a chance to win.  The fact he didn't endorse Deeds tells me that Wilder expects Deeds to go down.

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by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 22:39:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I remember when he waited to endorse Webb,

but with Deeds he implied that he would make an endorsement and then he backtracked. Maybe he played Lucy to Webb's Charlie Brown like he's doing with Deeds, but this time he seems like more of a jackass.

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by: Politik @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:07:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually he didn't

do that well among rural white Dems, Wilder won the same way that Obama won, heavy support among blacks, in Charlottesville and NoVa (which were much more GOP than it is today), stronger than expected performance in Virginia Beach, and not getting blown out in heavily GOP Western Va.  The only place that Wilder did much better than Obama was in SW Va.
Wilder also won lots of crossover moderate Repubs and independents by using the abortion issue to the hilt (see Deeds, Creigh 2009) against his opponent who was against abortion in all cases.

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by: JSmith @ Wed Sep 30, 2009 at 22:37:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doug is just an asshole.

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by: davybaby @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:02:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Grayson

Let's discuss him here, in a more appropriate thread than the Community Trust thread. Have a look at how I'm dealing with some unstrategic liberals on DailyKos:

He's right about "die quickly," but...

I'm MichaelNY there, as Pan was taken when I signed up.

The brief version is that I was with Grayson when he said the Congressional Republicans' health plan was "Don't get sick, and if you get sick, die quickly," but when he said on CNN that the Republicans are "knuckle-dragging Neanderthals," I thought he was stupid and likely to lose his reelection campaign.

In a marginal district, if you're going to be a liberal firebrand, at least do so respectfully. I think he may have a better future in talk radio.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 03:40:29 AM UTC

I agree with you on all points.

I feel very strongly that he just cost himself reelection. If he was in a district that Obama won by 10 points rather than 5 and/or in a Kerry/Obama rather than Bush/Obama district, then he could probably still win. The national media is all over this, and I'm sure that Orlando's news stations are doing the same. Grayson is a freshman from a wave class, and this sounds like one of those gaffes that a few of those one-termers from the Class of '94 uttered before they were sent home.

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by: Politik @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:03:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think Grayson wants to be a political martyr

and wants it to be all over TV.  It gives him a stage to highlight the people who are dying because they don't have health care, and Grayson hopes to turn the tide of the argument over health care, to those who don't have insurance.  And he's willing to lose his seat over it.

I mean when you give a second speech on the floor with stuff like, "I apologize to the dead" and "it is time to end this Holocaust in America", you have a guy who doesn't give a shit about winning reelection.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:10:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I thought that speech was good, though

It was the "knuckle-dragging Neanderthal" stuff that lost me.

I hope that his act of political sacrifice ends up being a positive. Count me as skeptical.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:17:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

From a strategy perspective

he should have done it 4 months earlier and put the GOP on the defensive back then.

Regardless, I don't think it is consistent to bash Joe Wilson and praise Grayson.  This stuff was way over the top.  Comparing the health care system and the Holocaust is beyond the pale.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:19:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

And it is especially bad

given that Grayson is Jewish.  He should know a lot better than that.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:20:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's a good point

n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 04:54:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In a way, he could be helping some of his fellow freshmen

as he has suddenly become a huge target for Republicans. Suzanne Kosmas might be able to breathe slightly easier if the NRCC starts spending a disproportionate amount of Florida money on anti-Grayson ads.

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by: Politik @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 05:36:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nope, he wants to raise lots of money

The timing is really transparent. It was a MoveOn move.

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 12:03:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But this may not have helped

it may have actually hurt.  

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:11:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm pretty fire-breathing

but I think Grayson conducted himself like a pompous, dissembling, idiot. His appearance on CNN was cringe-inducting. Alex Castellanos spells out a list of right wing health care "reform" ideas, and Grayson accuses him of appropriating the Democratic plan.

I'll bet he raised lots of money, but only for himself. He sure didn't do HCR any favors.  

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by: andgarden @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 12:02:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think he's awesome.

We need more Democrats who are going to fight back against the Republicans instead of naively thinking they can be negotiated with in good faith.  He's called out the lack of a Republican plan and has spelled out the cost of waiting: people die.  And he said the truth: that the Republicans don't care.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:18:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But did he have to call them knuckle-dragging Neanderthals to do that?

NO. Due to his language and tone, he comes across as an extremist. And that's NOT good in a R+2 district.

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:44:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probably not.

But if the cameras going to be on him, he's going to be able to go some points across.  It's certainly better than the Kerry/Dukakis strategy of ignoring the fire, or the Reid strategy of fighting the fire with paper and sighs.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 15:47:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe, but can we please have something between those two extremes?

n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  

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by: Pan @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:21:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Did he get anything across

but the only thing he seems to have gotten across is that he hates Republicans.

That's great, people who already like him and support us, like him and support us more. In the meantime, that middle, looking for civility, now wonders if there is anyone left in Washington who doesn't want to call the other side names.

That doesn't help us.

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 16:57:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Disagree

If they're reairing what he's said, about the thousands dying from lack of health care, about the Republican lack of concern, about the lack of a Republican plan, it helps.  Genteel messages saying "I disagree" hasn't gotten us anywhere.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 17:02:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

But they're not reairing what he said

they're ATTACKING what he said. They're comparing him to Joe Wilson.

Nobody's going to pay attention to what he said if the media keeps telling people he's just another crazy extermist like Joe Wilson.

Repeating Joe Wilson's "you lie" rant didn't help him.

So now anyone who thinks Republicans want people to die is just labelled crazy.  

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 17:30:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

He went way beyond that

he actually called the health care crisis a holocaust.  Way way over the top.  Completely uncalled for.

And even more disgraceful given that Grayson is Jewish, and should know much better than that.

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by: JSmith @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:26:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is a holocaust.

It's a great and terrible destruction.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

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by: TheUnknown285 @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 18:27:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Anybody

And I mean anybody, invoking Nazis loses the argument straight away.

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by: conspiracy @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 20:49:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

then use another word to describe it

why couldn't he just say "the insurance companies are murdering people"

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by: DTOzone @ Thu Oct 01, 2009 at 20:56:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]