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SSP Daily Digest: 9/29

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 29, 2009 at 2:57 PM EDT


CA-Sen: Politics Magazine takes a look at how the blowback from the launch of iCarly Fiorina's new website continues from all ends of the political spectrum, including a nice dig from SSP's own Ben Schaffer. As California's right-wingers sputter, there were also rumors circulating at the state's recent Republican convention that radio talk-show host Larry Elder -- the conservatives' preferred candidate, and someone who expressed interest in the race -- got boxed out by the NRSC, who told him not to run.

IN-Sen: 33-year-old state Sen. Marlin Stutzman launched his long-shot bid against Evan Bayh with some help from Rep. Mark Souder, who introduced Stutzman at his kickoff rally. The race already has some fourth-tier figures in it: businessmen Richard Behney and Don Bates. Grant County Commissioner Mark Bardsley, former state Rep. Dan Dumezich, and self-funding popcorn magnate Will Weaver are also considering the race.

NH-Sen: Kelly Ayotte is taking this whole not-saying-anything-about-her-positions thing to an illogical extreme, refusing to say for whom she voted for Governor in 2006 and 2008. Primary opponents Ovide Lamontagne and Sean Mahoney were quick to announce that they voted for Jim Coburn and Joe Kenney -- i.e. the guys who ran against Ayotte's ex-boss, Democratic Gov. John Lynch.

NY-Sen-B: Ed Cox, having secured his role as New York state GOP chair despite a push from Rudy Giuliani to install one of his own lieutenants in the role, is now trying to make nice with Giuliani, encouraging him to run for the Senate seat currently held by Kirsten Gillibrand instead of for Governor. Giuliani hasn't been returning Cox's calls, and insists via spokespersons that it's Governor or nothing.

AZ-01: Former state Senate majority leader Rusty Bowers has filed to form an exploratory committee to run against freshman Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick in the mostly-rural 1st. He's been out of the legislature since 2001 and has been a lobbyist for the Arizona Rock Products Association since then.

IL-07: Rep. Danny Davis, who previously seemed poised to bail out of his west Chicago seat and run for Cook County Board President, now seems to be dialing that back. Davis says he has the signatures collected to run for Board President "should [he] choose to do so." He may be having some second thoughts now that he has a key seat on Ways and Means and also because the expected field-clearing for him in the Board race didn't happen. With Illinois's super-early February primary, he has until mid-November to  make up his mind. Alderwoman Sharon Dixon says she's running in the primary in the 7th regardless of what Davis does, though; however, some other likely contenders, like state Rep. LaShawn Ford and state Sen. Rickey Hendon are in a holding pattern to see what Davis does.

IL-14: The field to take on Rep. Bill Foster in the Chicago suburbs just keeps growing, with the addition of GOP state Sen. Randy Hultgren. His best-known opponent in the now five-way primary is lawyer Ethan Hastert.

MI-11: Natalie Mosher is a fundraising consultant who's the only person with a hat in the ring for the Dems to go up against Rep. Thad McCotter. She's telling supporters via e-mail that she's "very close" to being named to the DCCC's Red to Blue program -- although that seems to be news to the DCCC, who say that R2B decisions won't be made for some time and they are still talking to other possible candidates.

NV-03: Yesterday we reported that former state Sen. Joe Heck was content to stay in the GOP gubernatorial primary, rather than switching over to the NV-03 slot vacated by John Guedry's withdrawal. However, since then, Heck has signaled more interest, saying he hasn't ruled it out and is discussing it with his family. Heck could turn out to be a step up from the inexperienced Guedry (remember that Rep. Dina Titus was a replacement candidate as well in 2008, who turned out in the end to be a better bet).

NY-13: Here's a strange rumor: disgraced ex-Rep. Vito Fossella has been making public rounds, leading to speculation that he's considering a comeback (although there's no sense whether he'd try again for the 13th, or elsewhere).

NY-23: The Watertown Daily Times has some juicy dirt on Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman, who apparently pledged his support to GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava shortly after he was passed over by the party in favor of her... and then shortly thereafter reached out to the Conservatives and got their nod. His defense is that he didn't know just how "liberal" Scozzafava really was, despite that having been a main bone of contention even before her selection.

NYC: With the primary runoff elections set for tonight, SurveyUSA has a final poll of the two races at issue: Public Advocate and Comptroller. For Public Advocate, city councilor Bill DeBlasio leads ex-PA Mark Green 49-42 (although DeBlasio narrowly won the primary, Green led every poll prior to it). And for Comptroller, Eric John Liu leads David Yassky 48-40 (both are city councilors). (Discussion of tonight's main event is underway in Pan's diary.) Meanwhile, it looks like Barack Obama won't be expending any political capital on the New York mayor's race, unless it becomes clear William Thompson is closing the gap on Michael Bloomberg.

NY-St. Sen.: The Erie County, NY DA's office is the latest to join a bipartisan chorus calling for an investigation into the shady campaign finance practices of political consultant Steve Pigeon. As you may recall, Pigeon was the mastermind behind billionaire Tom Golisano's attempted coup in the New York State Senate earlier this year. Pigeon is also buddy-buddy with Republican-turned-Dem Sen. Arlen Specter, and gets a $150,000 sinecure (completely above-board, I'm sure) as counsel to now-legendary scumbag Pedro Espada, Jr. (D)

PA-St. Sen.: One other race to keep an eye on tonight, in addition to the NYC races: a state Senate election in the Philly suburbs. It's a seat vacated by a Republican (who left to take a job with the Chamber of Commerce); Republican state Rep. Bob Mensch is considered to have the edge to hold the seat over Lansdale councilor Anne Scheuring (picked after better-known Dems took a pass), although Dems have spent considerably on the race. The district (the 24th) takes a bite out of the corners of four counties that went convincingly for Obama (Bucks, Montgomery, Lehigh, and Northampton) but it's exurban turf and has a Republican registration advantage -- which is exactly the kind of district that has bedeviled PA Dems at the legislative level but that the Dems need to pick up if they're ever going to take over the state Senate. The GOP currently holds a 29-20 edge, plus this one vacancy.

Crisitunity :: SSP Daily Digest: 9/29
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This is becoming irritating
http://www.nationaljournal.com...

If only the pundits had been so bold in the 2006 cycle.


From two weeks ago
"The thing that is so odd this time is that when majorities have seemed comparably endangered, it wasn't so much a year out as in the last nine months before the election. It wasn't clear to me that the GOP was likely to lose its majority in 2006 until the first week of August of that year. Before Election Day 1994, it was never clear the Democratic majority would collapse. The Republican tidal wave looked enormous, but it was impossible to calibrate just how high it was and how deep it would go."

http://www.nationaljournal.com...

Many of us saw it coming long before using signs that just aren't there for the GOP at this time. The pundits are just like Dem elected officials and strategists - cowed by the dominance of the almighty Republican party!


[ Parent ]
How come every article
I read from some overpaid pundit, they can list out all the seats us Dems need to worry about but cant even list a single one where we have a great chance at winning.  Id love to see the names of Portman, Blunt, Ayotte, Grayson mentioned instead of just Dodd, Reid, and Lincoln.  Cook is also WAY off base to say that we have no shot at Burr if he actually campaigns, wrong wrong wrong.

I no longer give any of these guys credibility to discuss politics, they are either biased, miss things that I even know as a 23 year old whose only voted in 2 presidential elections, or are just full of shit and unfounded.

Im glad Cook reads this blog so he can see us all trash what I perceive to be a terrible bias.  Yes the approval ratings for Obama are declining and that should indicate a decline in approval for the direction of the Democratic Party, except those polls are still above 50%.  This whole doom and gloom nonesense is short sighted, based solely off of healthcare, and dont even get me started on a single one of the pundits commentary on downballot races.  SSP knows downballot races, most of them do not.  (Cilliza's Line is a freakin disaster week after week.)

It's too bad my lack of experience makes me think they have more authority to discuss politics than I do, I make my facial expressions at my screen but cant help but wonder, maybe they just know better.  But what I read flies in the face of what is actually going on, frequently....


[ Parent ]
He might come on
But he'll claim he isn't predicting anything which is patently ridiculous considering the weight he is giving in all these articles.

[ Parent ]
Yeah no shit
It'd be one thing if he concluded with, however, it is only September of 2009 and the economy is already turning around which should bode well for the Democrats, etc.

But no, every single one of his articles is predicting doom and gloom, offering no silver linings or counter arguments.


[ Parent ]
I hate to say it, but Cook is right
With no healthcare reform and a still sluggish economy, do you honestly expect Dems to stay at 60 in the Senate?  

Healthcare reform is not going to happen
Democrats are too divided amongst themselves to get anything through at this point.  

[ Parent ]
Nonsense
Liberals and conservatives alike will probably hate it in equal measure but they will pass a bill. The consequences are too dire for anything else and they all know it.

[ Parent ]
I dont want to lead too far off topic here
But did you see the Finance Committee Vote?  Five of thirteen Democrats voted against the public option.  Do you think liberals in the House will vote for a bill that doesnt have a public option?

[ Parent ]
You think Dems won't cave?
Of course they'll cave! This is how it plays out - House passes Public Option, Senate passes co-ops or trigger or whatever they call it. It goes to conference. They negotiate. Progressive Dems have cover to backdown. Enough to pass the final bill anyway. I've seen this movie before. Trust me.

[ Parent ]
Dare I say it?
Dear conspiracy, it sounds like you believe there is a Democratic conspiracy against the public option....

[ Parent ]
No conspiracy
Just Dems always cave. Always. Moving on...

[ Parent ]
No
it's called sticking by your principles until it becomes clear they won't happen, then settling for what you can get.  

[ Parent ]
I wouldn't give up on the public option
just yet. My guess is the trigger version is in the final bill. Not ideal, but much better than having it not in the bill on any level

[ Parent ]
Oh I don't think it's dead
I think there's still a good chance it makes it to the final bill.

I als don't think it'll be the political waterloo the netroots think it is...if it was really that important, there would have been more than 17 people protesting in Aetna's lobby.


[ Parent ]
Reconciliation is the magic word


20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)

[ Parent ]
Dems will never use reconcilliation
Its a process used only for budget procedures.  

[ Parent ]
Except for that
using reconciliation has been brought up NUMEROUS times to be used, even by Obama.  Hell, the Dems have been saying they'll use reconciliation if need be from the get go.

However, that was a long long time ago, when the Dems still had the balls to do it.


[ Parent ]
Iono about that
from Wikipedia: ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R... )

"August 25, 2009, Sen Jeff Bingaman (D-NM), one of the members of the "Gang of Six" bipartisan group to work on a health care reform bill in the Senate has said that reconciliation may be used, is an acceptable option, and that he can support it."

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)


[ Parent ]
Personally
I understand the vote against Rockefeller amendment, but not the Schumer amendment

[ Parent ]
And the world's ending in 2012....
nt.

[ Parent ]
Yep
And grow.  The GOP brand is THAT bad.

30, male, Democratic, CO-01

[ Parent ]
...
"Fiorina parallels her campaign to the eternal struggle between cats and dogs," he went on. "She also seems to be suggesting that if you like cats and night then move along, you're probably a Democrat."

So Carly has managed to offend not just Democrats (predictably), but also cat lovers and night owls in one fell swoop!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


Well, we knew she was incompetent.
Still, not even I expected her to blow the legs off of her own campaign in the very first move. I think she was trying to go for the whole superficial "introverts are scary and evil" meme, but she really tripped over herself there.

Give it a couple more polls to be sure, but I think a month from now this will be verifiably a Safe D race. Good. Even one less reason for California Republicans to turn out at all.  


[ Parent ]
I'm also a night owl too!
I like staying up late at night because it is peaceful and quiet, so I can be more productive, including crunching California numbers!

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
Im a night owl, as well
Working late can do that to you!

I almost always make my posts late at night. Kind of prevents any immediate 'back and forth' with other members but, then again, i dont post nearly as often as I use to so I often go a few days without posting.


[ Parent ]
Well, this Democrat is allergic to cats so...
Man, Fiorina is incompetent, the one thing I'd like to know is whether her campaign staff is sober or not (or whether Fiorina is or not...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
I'm allergic to cats too.
But I still love them. (And I like staying up late too!)

My blog
Twitter
Scribd
28, New Democrat, Female, TX-03 (hometown CA-26)


[ Parent ]
I'm more of a dog lover myself
While I'm certainly not opposed to cats (insofar as they aren't making me sneeze and cry ;)) I like dogs more, particularly dalmatians (despite the fact that they are real pains in the neck to actually take care of, oy...)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!


[ Parent ]
Giuliani
He passed on the senate race.

Wants to run for Governor.

Does he have something against Cuomo that we do not know?


Nah
His fascist tendencies make him a perfect executive. I'm only half joking.

[ Parent ]
Pollster.com
Did pollster decide to remove all Rasmussen surveys from their roster?  I know that Strategic Vision was accused of fraudulence, but also Rasmussen?

They both should be removed...
Them and Zogby internet polls are all the same. Unreliable.

[ Parent ]
Well you can do that if you want
That is the beauty of pollster and the way you can smooth out outliers and filter bad samples.

[ Parent ]
No
Still there for me. Have you filtered them out via the tools?

[ Parent ]
NH-Senate
Just when exactly will national pundits stop treating Ayotte like a top-tier candidate?  She's refusing to answer questions on basic positions and is afraid that folks may soon realize that she's gasp a Republican!  Seriously, she's not been impressive as a candidate since the NRSC has rolled her out.  Should we worry about this one?

Environment will be crucial
Indies determine the winner in NH and if they are leaning hard anti-Dem next year she has an advantage. But it is no worse than a tossup no matter what Rasmussen says.

[ Parent ]
Got it
So, basically she's a generic non-Democrat in the race.  I just feel that once she has to come out on her core beliefs she'll be in more trouble.  Hopefully the primary will do that to her.

[ Parent ]
I think Hodes will win.
Hodes is liked by the Democratic base, Ayotte is not liked be her base and not doing much to win people over.  And New Hampshire is a Democratic state.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
IL-14
Nice to see the circular firing squad ruining the Republicans chances against Bill Foster.  It is so sad to see Denny's kid having a tough time.  

Please donate to amcharities.org to help build more after school centers in the Miami area.  

23, Democrat, IA-2


GA-Sen: R.J. Hadley (D) is officially in
http://www.rockdalecitizen.com...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

"Operation Pigeon Scramble"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

I can think of quite a few people who need putting in a giant egg beater!

Sorry. Couldn't resist. :)


PA- State Sen
Compare this map (thanks jeffmd) to this map. The 24th district, even though it's in 4 blue counties, appears to cover a fairly red area.

26, male, Dem, NJ-12

Anything's possible
with 5% turnout

[ Parent ]
Their sample is 51-44 McCain
which is a completely different voter universe from PPP.

Color me skeptical, especially with a quarter of the black vote going to McDonnell.


[ Parent ]
And winning NoVa
Agreed. But the indies continue to be Deeds achilles.

[ Parent ]
just for future reference
Can someone state now which polls are legit?

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
lol
They are all legit. Only some are more legit than others! McDonnell is ahead clearly but doubtful by this margin.

[ Parent ]
agree
I agree the race is closer than what SurveyUSA shows.  However, this site is starting to sound like right wing websites over the last 2 cycles.  Be very careful to disregard every poll you don't like.  I generally think polls are accurate.

Libertarian secular Republican, MO-7

[ Parent ]
So do I
But we disected polls just like this back then.

[ Parent ]
All the other polls show the opposite, so I think it's legitimate in this case
http://uselectionatlas.org/POL...

Six other polls done in September (including Rasmussen's drunken swing to 48-46 McDonnell) show the race tightening to mid-single digits. And yet SUSA has McDonnell increasing his lead from their last poll.


[ Parent ]
Rasmussen is a tease
I expect that to flip back next time.

[ Parent ]
The black Republican vote definitly feels off
Conventional wisdom is Deeds is having problems getting African Americans to show up rather than winning over the ones who do show up.  This doesn't seem right at all.

SurveyUSA just polled the NYC runoffs: we'll see how they do there.  Doesn't necessarily mean that it'll foreshadow their success/ failure at polling Virginia but still worth looking at.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)



[ Parent ]
Isn't that John Liu, not Eric Liu?


party: Democratic, ideology: moderate, district: CT-01

Yes
n/t

"I'm not a member of any organized political party, I'm a Democrat!"
--  Will Rogers  


[ Parent ]
GA-12: John Barrow picks up another Republican opponent.
http://savannahnow.com/news/20...

I'm still waiting for when he picks up a Democratic opponent.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.


That didn't take long: Barrow likely to draw a primary challenge.
http://savannahnow.com/news/20...

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]
Barrow really could lose to a primary challenge
at some point.  And if the district were to change back as the GOP gives up on him so as to make another GOP district, it might be the compromise and he could certainly lose.  

Just not to her, she needs some fine tuning and a serious campaign which lacked last time.  But it could happen with someone A-quality.


[ Parent ]
Maybe she's learned this time.
Hopefully.

Follow the elections in Georgia at the 2010 Georgia Race Tracker.

[ Parent ]

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