Not the DMR guy on the news

Each winter every four years?

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:01:08 PM UTC

David Yepsen's gone

He took a new job earlier this year.

His replacement at the Des Moines Register is Kathie Obradovich.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:18:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Definitely Need More Convincing

Grassley hasn't fallen below 60% of the vote since his first election in 1980. I don't see anyone on the horizon right now who could give him that challenge.

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by: Don't Tase Me, Bro! @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:04:22 PM UTC

Has Braley definitely said no?

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:08:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Braley did say no

He's running for re-election in IA-01 (thank goodness).

I doubt he would be able to defeat Grassley, and I don't want to lose him in the House.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:16:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I expect Braley to run for Senate

when Harkin or Grassley retires (whoever goes first).

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:17:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Would Culver entertain switching races?

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by: conspiracy @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:18:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Culver has a MUCH better chance

of being re-elected governor than he has of beating Grassley. I don't think there's any chance he would switch races.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 22:35:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If Branstad runs

Culver would have a better chance at beating Grassley.

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by: jmartin4s @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 00:31:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

and the guy did say he was waiting until Branstad made his move first

before making any announcements. Hmm

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by: homerun @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 00:37:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I totally disagree

No one has campaigned against Branstad in 15 years. He has a lot of weaknesses that will come out in the GOP primary as well as the general election. For one thing, he was so fiscally irresponsible that as a three-term incumbent, he almost lost the 1994 GOP primary. The Republican state auditor at the time, along with a bunch of Republicans in the state legislature, backed Fred Grandy in that primary. And by the way, that former state auditor, Richard Johnson, is now a co-chair of the Bob Vander Plaats campaign. Talk about someone who knows where the bodies are buried.

The Republicans criticize Culver for his state bonding initiative, but Branstad also used bonding during his tenure. He raised the sales tax twice too.

Social conservatives are disillusioned with Branstad, and while that won't prevent him from winning the nomination, it will bruise him and perhaps depress the Republican base during the general.

The Selzer poll for the Register found that 70 percent approved of Branstad's performance as governor, but only 48 percent thought it was a good idea for him to run for governor again. That's before anyone has criticized him.

Branstad is at his high water mark now. Grassley has a much more solid brand.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 01:15:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mike Blouin?

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by: DTOzone @ Fri Sep 25, 2009 at 23:47:21 PM UTC

I liked the Blouin idea

when it was first floated last month, but a well-connected Blouin supporter assured me then that he is very happy in Dubuque and is not interested in taking on Grassley.

Also, while I think he'd be a relatively strong candidate, Blouin doesn't seem like the kind of recruit that Kiernan could talk up in this manner. He seems to be hinting at someone outside the box.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 00:16:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

mydd.com

seems to think it could be ashton kutcher

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by: NOLAproud @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 00:22:32 AM UTC

Here's a really outside the box thought

Tom Harkin.  Perhaps he is so fed up with Grassley's obstruction, that he decides to see that Grassley is booted out...

I'm joking here.

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by: JSmith @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 00:47:14 AM UTC

Stranger things have happened

Harkin takes on Grassley, wins, resigns, Culver appoints a replacement.  

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by: DTOzone @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 01:08:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In all seriousness too

Kent Conrad did that, sort of. He held one North Dakota seat, decided not to seek reelection (Byron Dorgan succeded him), then ran for the other seat that same year cause it became open.

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by: DTOzone @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 01:10:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

did he lose his seniority

when that happened, like Lautenberg did after he left the Senate and returned later?

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 01:16:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

No

the primary reason why he ran for the other seat was to retain his seniority while keeping his promise.

Conrad promised in 1986, that if the deficit didn't go down by 1992, he wouldn't run again.  The deficit increased, and Conrad held to it and didn't run, and Byron Dorgan took his seat.  Then long time senator Quentin Burdick (who was a die hard progressive and is spinning in his grave regarding Conrad's behavior today) died, and many leaders in North Dakota were worried that they would lose all their clout.  So Conrad was encouraged to run for the open seat.

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by: JSmith @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 05:17:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Roxanne Conlin

probably not, but wouldnt that be fun. Roxanne kicks ass, and since we're digging up names from 1982... why not!

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by: inhoc75 @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 01:50:03 AM UTC

there have been rumors

but a friend who knows her well insists that she is not planning to run.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 02:35:00 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This is the rumor I heard

But at the same time I heard the rumor, I heard from the same person that she wasn't going to do it.

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...

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by: Nonpartisan @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 19:57:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Only 2 people justify Kiernan's stunning enthusiasm, and they are...

...Tom Vilsack and Tom Miller.  Vilsack, of course, would have to resign his Cabinet post.  It would be unusual, but who knows, maybe an Administration gig is not so interesting and fun for him after all?

Miller is the sitting Attorney General for 26 of the past 30 years (out of office 1991 to 1995 after losing the 1990 Democratic gubernatorial primary), and as I posted in weeks past, he was a personal mentor to me many years ago...meaning I know a little about him personally.  He told me many years ago that as a very young man he wanted to be a Congressman or Senator, that's what looked sexy.  He ran for A.G. because the opportunity was there, and he found he loved the job and lost his desire for federal office.  Tom is by far the most popular political figure of either party in Iowa, and he ran unopposed in 2006 as the GOP decided even a sacrificial lamb wasn't worth anything.

I can imagine a scenario where Miller, in the twilight of his career, is ready to make one run for high federal office and see what happens.  Politicians, especially popular ones, hate to lose, and therefore often shun a challenge tough as beating Grassley next year, but Miller now is at an age when many American adults start counting the days to retirement, he might be sanguine about whatever comes of it.

So that's my wildcard.

But, maybe Kiernan just needs to develop better messaging skills, and his big buildup will prove a disappointment when some underdog steps forward.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 01:55:27 AM UTC

Miller turned down an Obama administration post

in the FTC, I think. I assumed he had no interest in moving to Washington, but who knows?

That would certainly be a big name.

I can't believe Tom Vilsack would do this. Christie Vilsack, maybe.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 02:36:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Miller 4 Senate???

man that would be a knockdown dragout dogfight if it was Miller and definately an as promised recruit - I dont know that it meets the self funder definition though.

I think a few weeks ago you could have made an argument that Fitzgerald would be a good pick too, with Tramontina running to replace him as St. Treasurer... but thats beside the point. Same thing with being a self funder.

Mike has definately piqued interest... given that we've put up underfunded sacrificial lambs against Grassley, a self funder with name recognition is great.

John Chrystal would have been a good one if he wasnt gone, what about Liz Garst?  Its been a while since her St Senate run. Bill Knapp wouldnt want the hassle I wouldnt think, but theres a well known money dem... I had thought it was Hubbel until I read he said no.

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by: inhoc75 @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 04:15:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

not Fitzgerald

Too many problems with IPERS (state pension fund).

I love the whole Garst family, but Liz Garst doesn't qualify as a top-tier, big-name challenger. Bill Knapp is almost 80 years old.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 10:31:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hmm...

Let's say we can't get rid of Grassley this cycle, but he has a closer race than expected going into what everybody knows will be his final term. Assuming he doesn't die in office and retires in 2016, what are the chances that he can actually hand his seat off to his grandson as planned? Is it possible that people will vote for him this cycle because old habits die hard, but will hold his misanthropy against his grandson when it counts? Can behaving like a jackass on HCR affect his long term plan?

Much as I'd love to see Grassley gone, but my real concern is that he's making a pretty cheap attempt to start a political dynasty. I think this could be a sleeper race with a few more teabagging statements from Grassley on healthcare reform - IA was Obama's "most improved" state over Kerry, and if he makes too big of an ass of himself people might turn against him no matter how long he's been up there - and possibly because they decide he's gotten too old and has gone completely crazy. (Burns, Stevens, there seems to be one crazy old Republican coot in every cycle.) I see the potential for an upset a year from now, but it depends entirely on Grassley continuing to teabag as much as he did this summer and the D recruit really being as fantastic as Kiernan says he is. Longshot to be sure, but should still be an RTW. Stranger things have happened.  

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by: notanothersonofabush @ Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 13:59:38 PM UTC

Unless this is a

shock campaign from some rich guy I think it has to be Tom Miller. That or he is setting us up for a giant let down.

While he is fairly old it does make some amount of sense. He was semi-active in the Obama campaign, endorsed early enough that national Obama folks and him probably have a good relationship and he was the featured Iowa speaker on the Iowa stop of the OFA Healthcare Bus Tour

http://www.flickr.com/photos/b...

He would be about the only one I can imagine who fits that. And his interest in national issues sure makes him seem like a potential candidate.

Please, please let that be true. If Miller runs this really is a race.  

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by: Populista @ Sun Sep 27, 2009 at 06:16:40 AM UTC

I keep getting e-mails

from people hearing the Roxanne Conlin rumor. Branstad defeated her in 1982. I agree with you that Miller would make things very interesting.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Sun Sep 27, 2009 at 08:09:31 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hate to say it, but I'm expecting a LETDOWN......

I have a sneaky suspicion that Kiernan is a little green on messaging and misfired in his hype.  He might personally be excited about whoever it is, and he didn't pause to realize it's not such a big name (whoever it is) to average voters before opening his mouth.

I would love to eat my words and find out it's Tom Miller or Tom Vilsack.  No, neither could be a self-funder as far as I can imagine.  Miller worked for the then-new Des Moines office of a big Minneapolis-based law firm for the 4 years he was out of office in the early 90s, but that's not enough time, and Des Moines not a sufficiently lucrative legal services market, to build up such a big stash of cash.  And at that time he still had the expense of raising his then-underage son Matt...I got 2 li'l ones, I know that expense is a LOT!  So no way can I imagine Miller could self-fund.

43, male, Indian-American, Democrat, VA-10

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by: DCCyclone @ Sun Sep 27, 2009 at 17:00:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kiernan's description of our mystery candidate didn't include "self-funder".

I'm really hoping this is legit, and that Grassley really "is going to be in for the race of his life".
So my interest is piqued, and sure hope we're not letdown.

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by: homerun @ Mon Sep 28, 2009 at 20:23:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kiernan didn't say self-funder

If anyone with statewide name recognition gets in, I think we have a good shot at holding Grassley under 60 percent. Holding him to 55 percent would be great for our down-ticket candidates, because Iowa has straight-ticket voting.

A Bleeding Heartland commenter mentioned former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson, which would be an interesting possibility. Her special-needs son is now in college, and she and her husband Jim Autry could probably self-fund.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Sep 29, 2009 at 19:38:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kiernan didn't say self-funder

If anyone with statewide name recognition gets in, I think we have a good shot at holding Grassley under 60 percent. Holding him to 55 percent would be great for our down-ticket candidates, because Iowa has straight-ticket voting.

A Bleeding Heartland commenter mentioned former Lieutenant Governor Sally Pederson, which would be an interesting possibility. Her special-needs son is now in college, and she and her husband Jim Autry could probably self-fund.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Tue Sep 29, 2009 at 19:39:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]