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AZ-Gov: Goddard Leads Brewer, Other GOPers

by: James L.

Wed Sep 23, 2009 at 10:50 PM EDT


Public Policy Polling (9/18-21, registered voters):

Terry Goddard (D): 46
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 36
Undecided: 17

Terry Goddard (D): 45
Dean Martin (R): 37
Undecided: 18

Terry Goddard (D): 52
Fife Symington (R): 29
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.9%)

We haven't seen any public polling of Arizona's gubernatorial race this year, so this poll is greatly appreciated. State AG Terry Goddard, the presumptive Democratic nominee here (even though he hasn't formally announced anything yet due to Arizona's strict resign-to-run laws), is in pretty good shape. PPP finds his favorables at 44-22, which is almost the mirror image of Brewer's:

Only 26% of Arizona voters approve of the job Brewer is doing with 43% expressing disapproval and 31% unsure. Her numbers are remarkably consistent along party lines with 28% of Republicans, 26% of Democrats, and 24% of independents giving her good marks. Of all the Governors and Senators PPP has polled on across the country so far in 2009 Brewer is the least popular within her own party, taking that mantle from Illinois Senator Roland Burris who is at just 29% with Democrats.

If we continue to see numbers this bad for Brewer, I wouldn't be surprised if GOP leaders begin to pressure her to not seek a full term in 2010. While an unknown like state Treasurer Dean Martin polls about as well as she does, he doesn't have Brewer's high unfavorables to deal with. At this point, a guy like Martin -- or someone else of similar stature -- could be their better option, if you believe this poll.

SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican, but we'll be re-evaluating that rating soon in light of these numbers.

RaceTracker: AZ-Gov
James L. :: AZ-Gov: Goddard Leads Brewer, Other GOPers
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AZ-Gov: Goddard Leads Brewer, Other GOPers | 43 comments
One wonders if Napolitano's resignation
might ultimately be a good thing in terms of winning this seat in 2010.  It's a shitty time to be the incumbent party in most state governments.
I doubt Obama and Rahm thought they'd be saving this seat long term, but if they did, genius
Still, got to feel a little bad for Brewer.  She gets a job she didn't run for at the very worst time.  I wonder if she ever even wanted to be Governor ever.  At least people like Patterson ran for Lt. Gov knowing that one of the job's biggest roles was being ready to assume the Governorship.  I doubt Brewer thought she could wind up as Governor when she ran for SoS.  But that's politics.

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
Paterson
just recently said he never expected to be Governor - he thought he could parlay his LG spot into a Senate appointment when Hillary became President.  Um, yeah, no that plan didn't work out so well.  I'm just amazed he was willing to say that to the local press.
[ Parent ]
meh
If I were an Arizona Democrat, I would have a pretty bad taste in my mouth. I would not appreciate being intentionally left in the hands of a right wing nutcase and would find it hard to get enthusiastic about the next generic Democrat.

Midterms are base elections.  

[ Parent ]
If you had lived in Arizona the last ten years, watched Napolitano's whole career,
then the fact that she was elevated to Washington at the cost of her last two years would make you so angry that you'd be disinclined to vote for another Democrat, such as a presumably qualified AG?

I love you andgarden, but I doubt that's the thought process of a typical Arizona Democrat.  

Now a real bluestate Dem, someone who was used to and felt entitled to Democratic governance, might well be thoroughly pissed.  A voter in Washington state or Oregon who'd been under many years of Democratic rule could easily be shocked and dismayed to find a Republican in charge.  But redstate Democrats are used to these offices going back and forth; they have to work harder for the wins, so yeah they lose a lot with an appointment like that, but still, I don't think "fuck it, let the GOP have it" is going to be all that common a reaction.

Who knows though, I've been wrong before.  

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08

[ Parent ]
Those are some really ugly numbers.
Anyone know why Brewer is so deeply unpopular among Republican voters?

Also:

Of all the Governors and Senators PPP has polled on across the country so far in 2009 Brewer is the least popular within her own party, taking that mantle from Illinois Senator Roland Burris who is at just 29% with Democrats.

PPP hasn't polled Paterson or Gibbons, correct? They may be even less popular among their respective parties than Brewer or Burris.
The (believe it or not, continuing) budget battle is a big part of it
For one thing, she's moving to the left of some of the biggest ideologues in the State Legislature, with her idea to raise the sales tax to plug some of the holes created by the corporate tax cuts they both agree on (the right wingers don't think these need to be plugged, because cutting corporate taxes will by some Chicago School magic bring more money into the state's coffers). Not only did does this dichotomy hurt her among the wingnuts/tea partiers, but raising taxes on working families rarely helps anyone's approval ratings, even among partisans (especially considering that it was accompanied by big cuts to areas like education). I don't think the issue of whether the sales tax hike will be on a special election ballot has been decided yet (honestly, I'm seriously considering moving before the next general election, so I'm starting to find myself checking out of local politics), but the fact that she's been out in front making the push for it has surely hurt her.

22, Democrat, AZ-01
Peace. Love. Gabby.
[ Parent ]
Brewer
This was great for the dems.  We eliminated a potential republican star in this state.  We can probably get a governor mansion in a state Obama will be targeting.  Also, does anyone know if this will protect out house seats n redistricting.
Does squat
Arizona, like New Jersey and Iowa, are non partisan redistricting commissions.

26, Male, Democrat, TX-26
[ Parent ]
New Jersey???? Is that new?
Did the voters pass it directly?  I'm having trouble imagining New Jersey Democrats passing nonpartisan redistricting through the legislature...

28, gay guy, Democrat, CA-08
[ Parent ]
On the contrary
It's in the state constitution.
[ Parent ]
It won't
AZ redistricts based on a bi-partisan commision.  The Gov has no veto if I remember right.  Also the Gov can only appoint a new Senator from the same party as the old so from an out of state perspective the AZ governorship is one of the least important.  

21, male, CA-15 (home and voting there), LA-2 (college)


[ Parent ]
So then SoS
Is what we really need to win so we can make sure obama has a good shot at winning this state in 2012?  Also a dem governor will deepen our bench for the aging senators in AZ... that's pretty much it right?
Good point
Who do we have running for that race?
[ Parent ]
Sam Wercinski
Former Realestate Commisioner, resigning earlier this year when Napolitano did.  

He is the trustee for the Real Estate Recovery Fund and Condominium Recovery Fund, both created to protect consumers who have been harmed through negligence caused by an industry licensee or developer. Currently, he is a member of the state's Foreclosure Prevention Task Force and Mortgage Fraud Task Force.

There a host of other non declared but rumored people.

Here's the news article about the Sam

http://phoenix.bizjournals.com...

and here is the list of potential/rumored people

http://www.ourcampaigns.com/Ra...

[ Parent ]
www.sam4az.com
that's his website and SOS now stands for supporters of Sam, pretty cheesy but I like it
[ Parent ]
Ken Bennett
Is the current SOS and he is running for reelection.  He seems like a self serving douche bag, although most politicians are (from both parties)  E.G.

1. In 1989, several underground petroleum storage tanks owned by Bennett's Oil Co. released petroleum into the environment. In the years following, Bennett's undertook various remedies to decontaminate the area, paid for by its insurance company. Bennett's insurer, Federated Mutual Insurance, submitted five separate applications to the state for periodic reimbursement of the cleanup costs. The first four were approved, but the last was denied under a recently enacted act limiting reimbursement to costs not covered by insurance. Bennett's appealed the denial in court, arguing that the law was intended only to prevent double recovery, not to limit the state to providing only secondary insurance. The court affirmed the state's interpretation of the law and denied reimbursement. [1]

This later came to prominence when as a state senator (see below), Bennett co-sponsored a bill in 2004 which would provide reimbursement for oil company cleanup costs already covered under private insurance. [2] Some accused Bennett of a conflict of interest, given that his own company would benefit from this change. [3] The bill never made it out of committee and did not become law.

A 2006 plea bargain involving Ken's son, Clifton, became controversial after several parents of victims accused Ken of exerting undue influence to affect the case.[9] In what a county attorney described as a summer camp "hazing ritual" gone wrong, Clifton and another man poked 17 clothed campers in the buttocks using a broom stick. Ultimately Clifton, -only 17 years old and a minor, plead guilty to one count of aggravated assault. Clifton was sentenced to 30 days in jail and three years probation. Arizona Attorney General Terry Goddard, said he "had questions about the handling of the case," but that his office had no authority to intervene.[10] Yavapai County Attorney Sheila Polk defended the plea bargain and accused the news media of misrepresenting the issue. [11]

[ Parent ]
Brewer's a goner...
...but still, 36% is all that horrible for someone with a 26% approval rating. I feel like that's probably her ceiling though, and THAT is horrible.

For daily political commentary, visit me at http://polibeast.blogspot.com/ and http://twitter.com/polibeast
Yeah, the "Lean Republican" thing needs a revisit
I'm thinking that we can even move beyond "Tossup," and that this seat is in the "Lean Democrat" column - at the very least.
[ Parent ]
They aren't Paterson numbers...
But they certainly aren't very attractive ones either.

progressive, NY-8 (home), PA-7 (college)
Giffords vs. McCain
Im really excited to see this matchup polled. It would be awesome if McCain got unseated in 2010.  
Giffords will likely wait until 2012
2010 probably isnt a good time for a Democrat to vacate their seat to run for higher office.  Also, McCain is a far stronger incumbent than Kyl.  McCain at least appears to be moderate to voters.  
[ Parent ]
That's True
McCain took some hits during last year's campaign, but he stil won Arizona by a decent margin against Obama. Nobody's insane enough to challenge him for reelection. All of them (Giffords, Phil Gordon, even Napolitano in 2016) might wait unitl 2012 or 2016 to take on Kyl or McCain's open seat, because at 80 I doubt the Maverick will run again.
[ Parent ]
I also think that had McCain not been on the ballot
Arizona would have gone blue last November. Obama would have barely carried Maricopa county and John Shadegg would have been unseated.
Governor Jan Brewer Says She Was Chosen by God to Lead Arizona
Jan Brewer gone crazy

http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.c...

I have two elderly reletives in Arizona
I will be sure to get them out on election day.  

20, Male, Democrat, CA-44 (home) CA-12 (college)
Dean Martin
It'd be great if he ran, he'd have to give up his seat which would give us a shot of really deepening out bench here.  Can you imagine if Freudanthal challenges term limits and we pick up CA, NV, HI, and AZ... the west,  northeast, and midwest would be a nice pretty shade of blue!  Of course that's assuming we win MI, WI, and MN... MI being a tough get.  Also PA looks a little sketchy at the moment but I'd imagine these states come back to equlibriem in 2010.  So we'd be losing Oklahoma, KS, TN, and probably NJ... Overall I think that's a prety good trade off to get the west and Midwest solidly in our corner.  Those are the swings parts of the country whereas Oklahoma and the like are not.
Rasmussen Numbers
Grassley is beating Bob Krause 56 to 30.  But they have Obama's Arpoval at 48 appr to 49 dis... even though he won the state by nine points.  Their overall approval is 50 approve 49 disaprove.  They also showed him losing quite a bit of ground in Missouri from the election.  So my question is, if they have Obama's overall aproval pretty static from where it was on election day, then that means that to make up for the lost support in Iowa, Missouri etc. he must be doing better in some parts than he was on election day.  I find this hard to believe.  So basically I think this proves that Rasmussen at least has a flawed polling system.
I'm sure Rasmussen will now come out th a poll
showing Jan Brewer 10 points ahead of Goddard.  
[ Parent ]
His national approval generally favors Repubs
By about 5 points. He consistently had Bush about that margin better off than everyone else and the exit poll on election day proved it. Now the mirror image with Obama.
[ Parent ]
BS Iowa gov numbers from Rassy
54-34 for Former Gov.. I highly doubt Jan Brewer is doing better than Chet Culver... I'm sorry that's just bs...  
[ Parent ]
The guy to watch here is Rep. Jeff Flake
If he runs for Governor, he will be extremely formidable.  If not, this is Goddard's race to lose.  (Joe Arpaio could also make a formidable candidate, but I would be extremely shocked if that actually materialized.  Arpaio running for statewide office would probably start the wheels moving on a long-overdue federal investigation of his handling of the Maricopa County prisons, which might well land him in jail himself.)

The Crolian Progressive: as great an adventure as ever I heard of...
AZ
This race looks like it might join races like MN, HI, CA and a few others as potentially good Gov-race news on Election day.

29/D/Male/NY-01
So much for Fife Symington
Guess Arizonans haven't forgotten his foibles.

It will be interesting to see how the GOP primary shakes out. I imagine it will be pretty brutal, and the late date (September) doesn't help either.

Let's see
God save her now.
Careful
God might have a sick sense of humor ;)

Politics and Other Random Topics

24, Male, Democrat, NM-01, Chairman of the Atheist Caucus, and Majority Leader of the "Going to Hell" caucus!

[ Parent ]
So Arizona has Dean Martin
And Texas has Gene Kelly. Any more crooner politicos out there? There must be!
Well, there's
Samuel Davis, who represented Massachusetts in the House, 1813-1815.
[ Parent ]
Nice catch
I suppose Peter Lawford was married to a Kennedy sister.
[ Parent ]
Jerry Lewis (CA-41) waiting to team with Dean Martin
Republican dream team.
[ Parent ]
Cue Mr Burns!!!

[ Parent ]
Brewer Caught on Camera Calling Phoenix a "Hell Hole;" Has The Lady Finally Snapped?
Maybe she has snapped. She has risen to her level
of incompetence (Peter principle) and the stress has gotten to her.

BTW, that blogger has an interesting sense of humor. I like this other headline of his:
Phoenix Ranked Most Affordable Housing Market in Arizona; What a Polite Way of Saying Nobody Wants to Live Here

[ Parent ]
AZ-Gov: Goddard Leads Brewer, Other GOPers | 43 comments

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